THE TERMS OF THE TOPIC ARE DEFINED.
"Federal government" is defined.
The federal government is the national government. (1)
The federal government is not the state governments.(2-3)
"Establish" is defined.
"Establish" means to originate and found. (4-6)
"Establish" does not mean to add to something that already exists. (7)
"Establish" does not mean to enlarge. (8)
"Establish" does not mean to maintain. (9)
"A" means one. (10-12)
"Policy" means a definite course or method or action. (13-14)
"Substantially" is defined.
"Substantially" means 20 percent. (15)
"Substantially" does not mean inconsequential or small.(16-17)
"Substantial" does not mean "trivial." (18)
"Substantially" must be given effect. (19-20)
"Increase" means to make greater in size or amount. (21-22)
"Renewable energy" is defined.
"Renewable energy" is an energy source that cannot be exhausted. (23)
"Renewable energy" sources are sources that can be replenished or renewed. (24)
Fossil fuels and nuclear energy are not renewable energy sources. (25)
Renewable energy cannot be derived from waste products. (26)
 Federal renewable energy programs are limited by definition. (27-28)
"To" means for the purpose of (29)
"United States" does not include the territories of the United States. (30)

ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF ENERGY POLICY

 THE THREAT OF GLOBAL WARMING IS EXAGGERATED.
Recent temperature records are inadequate to confirm that the earth is warming.
Recent years have not been the warmest on record.(31-33)
Recent temperature increases fail to prove a global warming trend. (34-39)
The "warmest on record" readings are flawed. (40-41 )
Recent satellite temperature records refute the notion that the earth is warming.
Recent satellite measurements show no evidence of global warming. (42-46)
Satellite temperature records are the most accurate sources available to scientists. (47-49)
Ground-based temperatures tail to refute the satellite data records. (50-51 )
Mount Pinatubo's eruption did not disrupt the satellite
temperature records. (52)
Observational data is inadequate to confirm that the earth is warming.
Observational data fails to point to global warming. (53)
Ice core samples fail to confirm the global warming hypothesis. (54-56)
The breaking of Antarctic ice sheets fails to confirm the global warming hypothesis. (57-60)
Arctic weather patterns fail to confirm the global warming hypothesis. (61-62)
Recent storms fail to confirm the global warming
hypothesis. (63)
Global climate models are inadequate to confirm that the earth is warming.
Scientific data fails to confirm the predictions made by
global climate models. (64-67)
Temperature records fail to confirm climate models' predictions of global warming. (68-74)
Highly accurate readings refute the predictions made by global climate models. (75)

USE IN THE UNITED STATES

Computer predictions can't predict past temperature changes--much less the future. (76-78)
Computer models fail to take into account all relevant factors affecting the earth's climate. (79-84)
Computer models fail to adequately take into account the effects of clouds on global climate change. (85-87)
Climate models ignore nature feedback mechanisms. (88)
Climate models ignore water vapor's effects on climate change. (89-90)
Climate models ignore CO2 sinks. (91)
Climate models fail to account for natural climate variables. (92-93)
Climate models produce mixed results. (94)
Climate models study too short of a time-scale to be considered valid. (95)
The inability to adequately map the earth undermines the predictions of global climate models. (96-97)
Technical limitations in computer models prevent models from adequately predicting future climate data. (98-105)
The earth is simply too complex for present-day climate models. (106-108)
Climate models suffer from the "garbage in. garbage out "fallacy. (109-11I)
Global climate models are as accurate as a ouija board. (I12)
Inaccuracies make the predictions of climate models worthless for policy-making. (113-115)
Claims of a consensus of support for global warming are exaggerated.
No scientific consensus exists to support that the earth is warming. (116-117)
The IPCC report was politicized--the report greatly exaggerates the scientific certainty of global warming. (118-124)
The IPCC report fails to prove a scientific consensus exists to support the global warming hypothesis. (125-127)
The IPCC report is biased by scientists wanting funding for future climate research. (128-129)
The IPCC report misrepresents the state of scientific conclusions about global warming. (130)
Defenders of the IPCC report have also come to questionable scientific conclusions. (131)
The IPCC report ignores contradictory scientific dam. (132-135)
The IPCC report is a comedy of errors. (136)
The popular media exaggerates the "consensus" backing global warming. (137)
The inadequacies of the IPCC report question future predictions made by the IPCC. (138)
Historical temperature records fail to confirm the global warming hypothesis. (139-145)
Ocean temperature records fail to confirm the global warming hypothesis. (146-149)
Tree ring data refutes the global warming hypothesis. (150)
The scientific data supporting the global warming hypothesis is weak.
Grave uncertainties surround the data which claims that the earth is warming. (151-156)
Climatologists were predicting global cooling in the 1970s. (157-158)
Uncertainties regarding the length & time CO2 stays in the atmosphere cast doubt on the entire global warming hypothesis. (159-162)
Global warming is merely a "doomsday" prediction. (163)

CLAIMS OF "RUNAWAY" WARMING ARE EXAGGERATED.
Global warming will not occur at a rapid rate.
Historical records disprove the threat of runaway warming. (164-165)
Estimates of rapid temperature changes are being revised downward. (166-168)
Even the IPCC predicts only a modest rate of global warming. (169-171)

Improvements in global climate models show a significantly slower rate of global warming. (172-173)
The fears of rapid warming are exaggerated. (174)
"Negative feedbacks" will prevent runaway warming.
The earth is a self-regulating system--increases and decreases in temperature are offset by natural processes. (175-176)
Multiple feedbacks check rapid rates of warming.
Aerosols check rapid rates of warming,
Aerosols reflect sunlight into space--decreasing the rate of global warming. (179-184)
Multiple researchers have confirmed the aerosol "cooling" effect. (185-186)
The effects of aerosol cooling are global. (187)
Clouds prevent a rapid increase in the rate of global warming, (188-191)
"Sinks" prevent rapid rates of global warming.
Natural sinks for greenhouse gases are enormous-these sinks substantially mitigate human causes of global warming. ( 192-195)
Phytoplankton populations are a large greenhouse gas "sink." (196-202)
Oceans are a large greenhouse gas "sink." (203-211)
Peat bogs are a large greenhouse gas "sink." (212-213)
An unknown "sink" is absorbing tremendous quantities of greenhouse gases. (214-219)

THE DANGERS OF GLOBAL, WARMING ARE EXAGGERATED.
Doomsday predictions of the effects of global warming are flawed.
Global warming will have only mild effects on human beings. (220-223)
Past time periods of natural growth and expansion were much warmer that today's temperatures. (224-228)
Human beings can easily adapt to projected rates of global warming. (229-232)
The threat of species extinction from global warming is exaggerated.
The rate of species extinction is low in the present system. (233)
The present system has the highest biological diversity ever in recorded history. (234)
Projections of rapid rates of species extinctions are flawed. (235-238)
Most species extinction is natural. (239-241)
Species adapt to changing conditions--preventing mass extinction "waves." (242-243)
Extinctions merely allow the rise of new species. (244)
The effects of species extinctions is exaggerated--little is known about "keystone" species. (245)
Stabilizing global climate levels may actually decrease species diversity. (246)
The threat of a sea level rise from global warming is exaggerated.
Global warming will not cause sea levels to rise. (247)
Estimates of sea level rises are declining. (248-250)
Plate tectonics--not global warming--is responsible for any sea level rise. (251)
Global warming may decrease sea levels. (252-254)
Global warming will not melt glaciers. (255)
The threat of storms from global warming is exaggerated.
The connection between global warming and storms is exaggerated. (256-257)
Global warming is not the cause of the El Nino weather anomaly. (258)
Any increase in storms will be of storms with low intensity. (259)
The threat of deforestation from global warming is exaggerated. (260-261)
The threat of coral reefs from global warming is exaggerated. (262)
The danger to the world economy from global warming is exaggerated.
Large uncertainties exist in efforts to predict the economic consequences of global warming. (263-267)

USE IN THE UNITED STATES

Estimates of the economic costs of global warming are no better than guesses--no empirical evidence exists to backup the estimates. (268)
Global warming will have an insignificant effect on the US economy. (269-271)
On balance, global warming benefits human beings.
History shows that warmer periods have benefited humankind. (272-279)
Present temperatures are too cold--increases will actually benefit humanity. (280)
Global warming will benefit Americans. (281)
Global warming staves off an ice age.
An ice age is on the way. (282)
Global warming will stave off the next ice age. (283)
An ice age will be more devastating than global warming. (284)
An ice age is more likely to occur than global warming. (285)

AN INCREASE IN CO2 LEVELS WILL PROVIDE MASSIVE BENEFITS TO WORLD AGRICULTURE.
Rising CO2 levels will radically boost world agriculture productivity.
Rising CO2 levels benefit world agriculture in multiple ways. (286-288)
95% of plants are benefited by rising CO2 levels. (289)
Rising CO2 levels provide massive benefits for world food production. (290-292)
Rising CO2 levels increase agricultural yields and the quality of edible crops. (293)
Studies prove that rising CO2 levels benefit world agriculture.
One thousand studies prove that rising CO2 levels benefit world agriculture. (294)
93% of studies conducted show that rising CO2 levels benefit world agriculture. (295)
Multiple studies under all kinds of different conditions prove that rising CO2 levels benefit world agriculture. (296-297)
One hundred years of experiments prove that rising CO2 levels benefit world agriculture. {298-299)
Rising CO2 levels increase plant photosynthesis.
Studies prove that increased CO2 levels increase photosynthesis in plants. (300-303)
An increase in photosynthesis will provide massive benefits for world agriculture productivity. (304-305)
An increase in photosynthesis will provide massive benefits to the earth's biosphere. (306-307)
Rising CO2 levels improve water efficiency in agriculture.
Rising CO2 levels significantly enhance water efficiency in agriculture. (308-311)
Improved water efficiency is the best way to increase agricultural productivity in the world. (312)
Improved water efficiency will expand food production into dry areas of the world. (313-314)
Rising CO2 levels benefit agricultural plants over weeds.(315-320)
Rising CO2 levels make plants more resistant to pests.(321-323)
Rising CO2 levels enhance root growth--allowing plants greater access to water and soil nutrients. (324-328)
Rising CO2 levels protect plants from air pollution. (329)
Rising CO2 levels protect plants from disease. (330)
Rising CO2 levels benefit crops that are essential for world food production.
Twenty-five crops are the key to staving off world starvation - rising CO2 levels benefit all of them. (331 )
Rising CO2 levels benefit world wheat production.
Wheat is a critical crop in efforts to feed the world. (332)
Rising CO2 levels dramatically increase world wheat output. (333-335)
Rising CO2 levels benefit world rice production.
Rice is a critical crop in efforts to feed the world. (336)
Rising CO2 levels combined with rising temperatures dramatically increase world rice output. (337-340)
Indictments of the benefits of rising CO2 levels for world agriculture are flawed.
The hazards of "over fertilization" are exaggerated. (341)
Studies under adverse atmospheric conditions still show that rising CO2 levels benefit plant growth. (342-346)
Rising CO2 levels benefit the harvestable portions of crops. (347)
Rising CO2 levels continue to benefit plants well into the future. (348)
Rising CO2 levels benefit both the developed and developing countries. (349)
A great deal of agricultural land in the world can benefit from rising CO2 levels. (350)
Any harmful effects of global warming will not offset the benefits of rising CO2 levels for world agriculture.
Rising CO2 levels will offset any harm to plants from global warming. (351-355)
Rising CO2 levels offset environmental stresses on plants. (356)
The combined effects of global warming and rising CO2 levels benefit world agriculture. (357-360)
Global warming actually benefits world agriculture production.
Global warming will massively benefit world food output. (361-363)
Historical records prove: rising world temperatures increase agricultural growth. (364)
Global warming lengthens agricultural growing seasons--massively benefiting world agriculture. (365-368)
Global warming increases precipitation--massively benefiting world agriculture. (369-373)
Global warming decreases frost--massively benefiting world agriculture. (374-376)
As long as global warming is mild--agriculture will benefit. (377)
"Night warming" benefits world agricultural productivity. (a) Most warming takes place at night. (378-383)
Night warming provides massive benefits for world agricultural production. (384-385)
Night warming lengthens the growing seasons for world agriculture. (386-389)
There is no harm to world agriculture from global warming.
Global warming will not significantly harm world agriculture. (390)
Farmers can easily adapt to any harmful effects of global warming. (391-394)
Even with no adaptations--global warming will not adversely affect world agriculture. (395-396)
On balance. global warming will benefit world agriculture. (397)

THE BIAS OF GLOBAL WARMING SKEPTICS IS EXAGGERATED.
Statements of bias are exaggerated highly reputable scientists disagree with the global warming hypothesis. (398)
Bias also infects global warming advocates--playing up "doomsday" scenarios results in increased research grants from the government. (399-400)

IMMEDIATE ACTION TO ALLEVIATE GLOBAL WARM1NG IS UNWARRANTED.
Current information is insufficient to justify) actions to alleviate global warming. (401-402)
Current inadequacies in global climate models warrant a cautious stance on the global warming issue. (403)
Past predictions of cooling would have locked the world into disaster--a wait and see approach is appropriate. (404)
Delay allows improved research--allowing the world to choose the best options to mitigate the harms of any climate change. (405-408)
Delaying action is beneficial for several reasons. (409)
Delaying action allows the most cost-beneficial approach to global warming. (410-413)
Even IPCC scientists argue that delaying action is warranted. (414)
Waiting a decade allows the best possible research to accumulate. (415 )
Delaying action does not significantly increase the dangers of global warming. (416-418)

NATURAL SOURCES ARE THE CAUSE OF ANY OBSERVED RATES OF GLOBAL WARMING.
The increase in greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere is exaggerated. (419)
Nature is the primary cause of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. (420-426)
Termites emit more CO2 than the burning of fossil fuels. (427)
Greenhouse gas emissions are not causally linked to global warming.
Greenhouse gases are an insignificant cause of global warming. (428-429)
No causal link has been established between rising greenhouse gas levels and global warming. (430)
No causal link has been established between rising CO2 levels and global warming. (431-437)
Historical records fail to prove a causal connection between CO2 emissions and global warming. (438-444)
Global warming could have just as easily been the cause of increased CO2 emissions. (445)
Correlations are inadequate to base sound climate change policy upon. (446-447)
CO2 is a minor cause of global warming.
Doubling present CO2 levels will not cause global warming. (448-449)
CO2 does not absorb a significant amount of heat. (450)
Other greenhouse gases are more important than CO2 in climate change. (451)
Natural sources are the cause of any observed global warming.
Rapid climate change is a totally natural phenomenon. (452-454)
Grave uncertainties exist in efforts to prove a "human fingerprint" on climate change. (455)
The human influence on climate change is insignificant. (456-457)
"Solar flux" is the cause of any observed global warming. (458-462)
Sunspot activity is the cause of any observed global warming. (463-469)
The "'urban heat island" effect accounts for any observed global warming. (470-475)
The "greenhouse effect" is an entirely natural phenomenon. (476-480)

THE ENVIRONMENTAL HARMS OF AIR POLLUTION ARE EXAGGERATED.
The number of areas failing to achieve air quality standards is exaggerated. (481-485)
Air pollution levels are substantially declining throughout the United States. (486-491)
The environmental harms of particulate air pollution are exaggerated.
Particulate levels are decreasing nationwide. {492-495)
Particulates are not causally linked to mortality rates. (496)
Fine particulates harms are not scientifically based. (497)
Weather patterns are the cause of observed particulates harms. (498)
Natural sources of particulates overwhelm human sources. (499)
The environmental harms of low ozone pollution are exaggerated.
Low ozone pollution levels are decreasing nationwide.
The health harms of low ozone pollution are exaggerated. (504-506)
Weather patterns--not human activities--are the key to low ozone pollution. (507)
Carbon monoxide levels are declining now. (508)
The environmental harms of acid rain are exaggerated.
SO2 pollution is not significantly increasing. (509-510)
The health harms of SO2 pollution are exaggerated. (511 )
The environmental harms of acid rain are exaggerated. (512-516)
Acid rain does not significantly harm aquatic ecosystems. (517-518)
Acid rain does not significantly harm forest ecosystems.
Acid rain is not a significant threat to forests.
Acid rain is not a significant threat to forests in North America. (522-524)
Observed damage to forests is not a result of acid rain. (525)
Acid rain actually benefits plants. (526-529)
The present system's commitment to "scrubbers" will successfully reduce sulfur dioxide pollution. (580-582)

CHANGES IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM WILL NOT ALLOW RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION.
Implementation of a carbon tax will not substantially increase renewable energy use.
A carbon tax will not substantially increase industry's incentives to pursue renewable energy technologies. (583-585)
A carbon tax will merely "shift" pollution to non-carbon based sources. (586)
Carbon taxes do not change the behavioral patterns of industry. (587-589)
A carbon tax will be difficult to administer and enforce. (590-591)
European successes with carbon taxes are irrelevant to the U. S. system. (592)
A cap on carbon production is superior to a carbon tax. (593)
A carbon tax will devastate the United States economy. 
A carbon tax will cost the economy tens of billions of dollars a year. (594)
A carbon tax will substantially harm the GNP of the United States. (595-596)
A carbon tax will devastate U. S. international competitiveness. (597-603)
A carbon tax would have the same effect on the economy as the oil shocks of the 1970s. (604-605)
A carbon tax would devastate domestic oil companies. (606)
A carbon tax will undermine U. S. coal businesses. {607-609)
A carbon tax will cost America millions of jobs. (610-611)
A carbon tax will destroy America's utility industries. (612)
Using carbon tax revenues in other areas of the economy will not offset the economic damage of a carbon tax. (613-616)
A carbon tax would decrease the U. S. standard of living. (617-619)
A carbon tax is heavily regressive---devastating the poor. (620-624)
A carbon tax will not alleviate unemployment. (625)
Taxing 'externalities" is impossible and counterproductive.
It is nearly impossible to determine the externality "costs" of fossil fuel usage. (626-627)
Efforts to economically "value" the environment are arbitrary and vague. (628-630)
No reliable method exists to assign "value" to the environment. (631-632)
Estimates of the economic "value" of environmental damage are flawed. (633-636)
Tradable permits will not substantially increase renewable energy use or benefit the environment.
Tradable permits do not encourage the adoption of renewable energy technologies. (637-642)
Tradable permits actually stifle innovation in renewable energy technologies. (643)
Tradable permits are ineffective at reducing pollution. (644-645)
Tradable permits create pollution "hot zones." (646-649)
Permits are only effective for new industries. (650)
Permits give firms a license to pollute. (651)
The failures of the SO2 trading system prove the inadequacies of a tradable permits system. (652-657)
The energy sector is not a true "free market." (658-664)
A system of tradable permits is difficult to monitor and enforce. (665-666)
Tradable permits do not encourage industries to seek out the least costly technology. (667-669)
Tradable permits result in substantial increases in energy prices. (670)

THE PRESENT SYSTEM IS ADEQUATE TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION.
The present system is developing alternatives to fossil fuel reliance.
The use of renewable energy technologies is significant and increasing in the present system. (530-534)
Despite the lack of government funding the renewable energy technology, renewable energy use is rapidly expanding in the present system. (535)
The declining costs of renewable energy sources are allowing these sources to expand in the present system. (536-538)
The present system is successfully reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The present system's voluntary initiatives are effective at reducing CO2 emissions. (539)
The United States is actively seeking binding measures to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (540-541)
The United States is committed to a specific target date to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (542)
The United States is successfully reducing greenhouse emissions in the present system. (543-544)
The United States is implementing multiple policies to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the present system. (545-550)
The voluntary approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions are superior to command and control approaches. (551-552)
The present system is successfully reducing all different types of greenhouse gases. (553)
Other nations are successfully reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the present system. (554)
The present system is successfully reducing air pollution levels.
The present system is making significant progress in controlling air pollution. (555)
New standards proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency will substantially reduce particulate air pollution. (556-559)
The present system provides adequate solutions to environmental pollution caused by coal consumption
The present system is committed to clean coal technology solutions. (560)
Clean coal technology is abundant in the present system. (561-563)
Clean coal technology substantially reduces environmental pollution caused by coal consumption. (564-567)
"Extraction" technologies substantially reduce environmental pollution caused by coal consumption. (568-570)
The harms of coal mining are being solved under the present system.
Coal mining deaths are substantially decreasing under the present system. (571)
Policies to restore strip-mined land prevent the environmental damage of coal mining.(572-574)
The present system is successfully reducing sulfur dioxide pollution. (575-579)

There are multiple disadvantages to the tradable permits approach. (671)
A carbon tax is superior to a tradable permits scheme. (672)
Providing set asides for utilities to embrace renewable energy technology will not significantly increase renewable energy use or environmental quality.
Deregulation will promote renewable energy use among utilities
Deregulation will spur competition between utilities.(673-674)
Competition will stimulate renewable energy development and use. (675-680)
Moves toward "green pricing" will significantly increase renewable energy use. (681-684)
The PURPA legislation has substantially increased renewable energy use among utilities. (685)
Utilities are significantly involved in renewable energy use under the present system. (686)
Pollution from utility power sources is substantially decreasing under the present system. (687-689)
Set asides will not benefit renewable energy use or the environment.
Set asides will not substantially increase renewable energy use. (690-691)
Industry opposes set asides--making enforcement difficult. (692)
Free market competition under deregulation best promotes renewable energy use and protects the environment. (693-695)
Local control over utilities is superior to national regulations.
The present system is returning control over utilities to local areas. (696)
Localized control of utilities is the best method to promote renewable energy use. (697-701)
Local control of utilities is the most democratic alternative. (702-703)
A national policy is inferior to local control over utilities. (704)
Deregulation provides massive benefits to the U.S. economy.
The electric utility industry provides hundreds of billions of dollars a year to the U. S. economy.(705-707)
Deregulation will provide enormous benefits to the utilities industry. (708-713)
Deregulation will reduce electricity costs--benefiting both consumers and the industries.(714-721)
Regulations to decrease emissions from utilities will undermine the economic benefits of deregulation.(722-723)
U.S. actions to solve global environmental problems are irrelevant.
Unilateral actions to solve global environmental harms are irrelevant--other nations will refuse to go along with our actions---continuing the environmental hazards. (724-727)
Unilateral actions to solve global warming are irrelevant. (728)
The focus on economic growth will prevent Third World nations from "modeling" the United States' actions. (729-730)
Other nations lack the economic infrastructure to transition to a renewable energy economy. (731)
U.S. actions to achieve CO2 reductions will be overwhelmed by the inaction of developing nations.
Eighty-five percent of CO2 emissions will soon come from the Third World. (732-735)
CO2 emissions from China and India will be critical to any future global warming. (736-738)
Third World CO2 emissions will dramatically increase by the year 2100. (739)
The Third World will overwhelm any decrease in CO2 emissions from the United States (745)
USE IN THE UNITED STATES
Developed nations cannot solve the CO2 emissions problem on their own. (746)
Other nations will not meet international climate goals. (747-748)
The Third World has no alternative to fossil fuels in the future. (749-750)
International cooperation on the global warming issue is impossible.
Global warming can only be solved via international cooperation. (751-754)
International cooperation on global warming is unlikely. (755-757)
No international consensus on the appropriate method by which to reduce global warming can be achieved. (758-760)
The prisoners' dilemma prevents one nation from acting successfully to solve global warming. (761-762)
Other nations will merely "free ride" on U. S. efforts to reduce global warming. (763)
Unilateral action to solve global environmental issues will only harm the United States while achieving no practical benefits. (764-766)

IMPLEMENTATION OF PARTICULAR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES WILL NOT SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION HARMS.
Promoting wind as a renewable energy source will not substantially decrease environmental pollution.
Wind power is substantially increasing in the present system. (767-773)
Wind power will continue to expand and increase in the future. (774-775)
Strong support exists for wind power in the present system. (776-779)
Wind power is not cost-competitive. (780-784)
Geographic constraints limit wind power production in the United States. (785-787)
Wind energy is inadequate to meet U.S. energy needs. (788)
Wind energy is an unreliable source of power. (789-790)
Inadequate transmission lines block wind as a an effective source of energy. (791-793)
The lack of storage capacity undermines wind as an effective source. (794-795)
Multiple disadvantages accrue from widespread implementation of wind power.
A substantial increase in wind power will increase the death of exotic and unique bird species.(796-801 )
A substantial increase in wind power will substantially increase noise pollution. (802-806)
A substantial increase in wind power will substantially increase aesthetic pollution. (807-809)
A substantial increase in wind power will disrupt radio and television transmissions. (810)
Promoting biomass as a renewable energy source will not substantially decrease environmental pollution.
The present system adequately utilizes biomass technologies.
The use of biomass technologies is increasing in the present system. (811-813)
The present system provides substantial incentives for biomass technologies. (814)
Widespread use of biomass technologies will not reduce environmental pollution.
Biomass causes widespread pollution. (815-816)
Biomass releases large quantities of COL (817)
Biomass increases NOx pollution. (818)
Widespread use of biomass technologies will not benefit agricultural pollution.
Widespread biomass use will require land that would otherwise have been used for agricultural production. (819)
Agricultural land is critical to stave off world
Widespread use of biomass technologies devastates productive agricultural land. (821-822)
Transportation problems inhibit widespread use of biomass technologies. (823-824)
Biomass is not a cost-competitive technology. (825)
Widespread use of solar power will not substantially decrease environmental pollution.
Widespread use of solar photovoltaics will not substantially decrease environmental pollution.
The present system is committed to solar photovoltaics.
Funding for solar photovoltaics is extremely high in the present system. (826-828)
Federal support for solar energy is increasing in the present system. (829-830)
Congress massively supports solar energy in the present system. (831)
Solar photovoltaics is not cost-competitive.(832-837)
Storage and conversion problems undermine solar photovoltaics as a widespread energy source. (838)
Solar photovoltaics is not an efficient form of energy.(839)
Solar photovoltaics requires too much land use to be considered viable. (840-841)
The intermittent nature of solar photovoltaics undermines its widespread application as an energy source. (842)
Widespread use of solar thermal technologies will not significantly reduce environmental pollution.
Solar thermal electricity is not cost-competitive.(843-849)
Technological problems undermine the effectiveness of solar thermal technologies. (850-852)
Storage problems undermine solar thermal technologies. {853)
The present system provides adequate support for solar thermal technologies. (854-858)
Governmental efforts to foster widespread use of solar thermal technologies are ineffective.
Tax credits are an ineffective means of stimulating solar thermal technologies. (859)
Previous efforts to provide solar tax credits failed to stimulate solar thermal technologies.(860-864)
Tax credits actually undermine the solar thermal industry. (865-868)
Solar tax credits failed to develop long-term support for the solar thermal industry. (869)
Solar tax credits discriminate against low-income households and industries. (870-873)
The benefits of governmental efforts to launch solar power satellites are exaggerated.
Solar power satellites am not a reliable power source.(874)
Solar arrays are too large and unreliable to provide an effective energy source from space. (875-877)
Technological problems undermine the solar power satellite option. (878-880)
The United States lacks the needed space infrastructure to launch solar power satellites.
The United States lacks infrastructure necessary to launch solar power satellites. (881 )
Severe budgetary cuts in America's space program further undermine the infrastructure capabilities of the U.S. space program.(882-886)
The costs of solar power satellites are enormous.
The solar power satellite project costs 24 billion dollars. (887-888)
The enormous costs of solar power satellites prevent the project from being a feasible option.(889)
Enormous technical problems plague efforts to have an effective lunar solar array. (890)
The benefits of hydrogen as a renewable energy source are exaggerated.
The present system adequately supports hydrogen as a renewable energy technology. (891-893)
Hydrogen is not a technically feasible renewable energy source. (894-895)
The infrastructure to produce hydrogen power on a widespread basis is inadequate. (896-899)
An effective delivery system for hydrogen power is nonexistent. (900)
Widespread applications of hydrogen will be well off into the future. (901-902)
Hydrogen is not an energy-efficient method of power production. (903-905)
Hydrogen is not a cost-effective method of power production. (906-908)
Widespread use of hydrogen power creates serious safety concerns. (909)
The benefits of geothermal energy are exaggerated.
Geothermal energy use actually causes widespread pollution. (910-913)
Inadequate sites exist for geothermal energy extraction.(914-916)
Geothermal energy is not cost-competitive. (917-918)
Geothermal energy cannot be developed on a large scale basis. (919-921)
The use of geothermal energy increases the risk of earthquakes. (922)
Geothermal energy is not technologically feasible.(923-924)
Geothermal energy use creates significant safety hazards. (925)
Benefits of hydroelectric power are exaggerated.
Hydroelectric power is an inefficient energy source. (926)
Hydroelectric power is not cost-effective. (927-928)
The present system is adequately committed to hydroelectric power generation. (929)
The lack of adequate sites prevents substantial increases in hydroelectric power generation. (930-931)
Hydroelectric power has multiple disadvantages.
Hydroelectric power triggers earthquakes. (932-933)
Hydroelectric power devastates the environment.(934-935)
Hydroelectric power destroys aquatic habitats.(936-937)
The benefits of wave power are exaggerated.
Wave energy will not benefit the environment. (938)
Wave energy is not technologically feasible. (939-941 )
The benefits of ocean thermal energy conversion are exaggerated.
Ocean thermal energy conversion will not significantly benefit the environment. (942)
Ocean thermal energy conversion is not an efficient energy source. (943)
Ocean thermal energy conversion is not technologically feasible. (944-946)
Ocean thermal energy conversion is not commercially viable. (947-949)
Ocean thermal energy conversion has multiple deficiencies. (950)
The benefits of tidal power are exaggerated.
Tidal power will not significantly help the environment. (951)
Tidal power is not a significant source of energy.(952-953)
Tidal power is not a cost-competitive technology'(954-955)
Tidal power has never been employed on a widespread basis. (956)
The benefits of convection towers are exaggerated.
Convection towers will not substantially decrease environmental pollution. (957)
Convection towers are not technologically feasible. (958)
Convection towers are not cost-competitive. (959-961)
The benefits of nuclear fusion are exaggerated.
Fusion consumes more energy than it produces. (962)
Fusion is not technologically feasible. (963-965)
Fusion power is at least 50 years off as a technology. (966-968)
The long time-frame to fusion energy makes other alternatives superior. (968-971)
Fusion research is ineffective and extremely wasteful.
The benefits of nanotechnology are exaggerated.
Nanotechnology is not feasible. (976-977)
Today's technologies are nowhere near ready to produce nanotechnology. (978-980)
Nanotechnology is science fiction, not science fact. (981)
Nanotechnology is impractical. (982)
Dreams of nanotechnology utopia are highly exaggerated. (983-984)
Nanotechnology is seriously disadvantageous.
Nanotechnology risks heinous accidents. (985)
Nanotechnology presents unbelievable moral and security problems. (986)

ALTERNATIVES TO RENEWABLE ENERGY USE ARE ADEQUATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE HAZARDS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION.
Energy efficiency will substantially decrease environmental pollution.
Energy efficiency is a nonrenewable alternative to reduce energy use. (987)
The present system is committed to energy efficiency. 
The present system has multiple programs that promote energy efficiency. (988-993)
Current programs are incredibly successful at promoting the widespread use of' energy efficiency. (994-995)
Federal subsidy programs have been remarkably successful at promoting energy efficiency. (996-998)
The present system promotes widespread housing efficiency programs. (999)
Energy efficiency substantially decreases greenhouse gas emissions.
Energy efficiency is substantially reducing U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases in the present system. (1000)
Energy efficiency is capable of making drastic cuts in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. (1001 1004)
The U.S. climate goals can be met entirely with energy efficiency. (1005)
Companies that have embraced energy efficiency show that energy efficiency dramatically reduces greenhouse gas emissions. (1006)
Current energy efficiency technologies are capable of dramatically decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. (1007-1009)
Energy efficiency is a cost-effective means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. (1010-1011)
Even if global warming is nonexistent, energy efficiency is still justified. (1012-1013)
Energy efficiency is the best way to combat global warming. (1014)
Energy efficiency substantially reduces air pollution
Energy efficiency dramatically decreases pollution emissions. (1015-1017)
Energy efficiency decreases particulate air pollution. (1018)
Energy efficiency substantially decreases electricity consumption. (1019)
Energy efficiency has tremendous potential to decrease energy consumption.
Existing efficiency technologies can drastically increase energy efficiency. (1020-1023)
Newly forthcoming technologies will continue to enhance energy efficiency gains. (1024-1026)
Industrial efficiency has tremendous potential. (1027-1030)
Efficiency improvements on buildings can drastically reduce energy consumption. (1031-1038)
Efficient lighting can drastically reduce energy consumption. (1039-1041)
Energy efficiency is a cost-effective means of reducing environmental pollution. (1042-1046)
Current energy forecasts ignore the potential of energy efficiency technology. (1047-1049)
Energy efficiency has enormous benefits. (1050)
Energy efficiency is preferable to renewable energy. (1051)
Natural gas will substantially reduce environmental pollution.
The present system is committed to natural gas to reduce environmental pollution.
The federal government provides significant support for natural gas in the present system. (1052-1053)
Utilities will favor natural gas in the present system. (1054-1055)
The deregulation of natural gas will substantially increase the use of natural gas in the present system.
The present system is deregulating natural gas.
Deregulation will make natural gas cost-competitive--resulting in an increase in the use of natural gas. (1058-1060)
Natural gas will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Natural gas emits far less CO2 than other fossil fuels. (1061-1063)
Substituting coal for natural gas results in a massive decrease in greenhouse gases. (1064-1066)
Natural gas will substantially decrease global warming. (1067)
Natural gas will substantially decrease air pollution.
Natural gas emits substantially less pollutants than fossil fuel energy sources. (1068-1071)
Natural gas will substantially decrease particulate air pollution.(1072)
Natural gas substantially decreases acid rain. (1073-1074)
Natural gas is environmentally friendly. (1075)
Natural gas has enormous potential as an energy Source.
Abundant reserves of natural gas exist throughout the world. (1076-1077)
The United States has abundant reserves of natural gas. (1078-1079)
Natural gas reserves have historically been understated. (1080-1083)
The technology to extract and utilize natural gas is significant and increasing. (1084-1085)
Natural gas is a cost-competitive energy source.
Natural gas is cheaper than coal as an energy source. (1086-1090)
Previous high-cost estimates of natural gas have been flawed. (1091)
Natural gas prices are substantially declining in the present system. (1092)
Natural gas is more economical than nuclear energy. (1093)
Natural gas is more economical than renewable energy sources. (1094)
The methane risk from natural gas is exaggerated.
Burning natural gas actually decreases methane emissions. (1095-1096)
Natural gas companies have made significant efforts to decrease the risks of methane "leakage." (1097)
Natural gas is superior to all other energy sources. (1098-1099)
Natural gas is the fuel of the future. (1100)
Nuclear power is an effective way to reduce environmental pollution.
Nuclear power is distinct from renewable energy sources. (1101-1102)
The present system is committed to nuclear energy as a viable energy source.
The United States is committed to nuclear power research and development. (1103-1106)
Fears of global warming are causing environmentalists to increasingly embrace the nuclear option. (1107-1110)
The military's desire to burn spent nuclear waste is triggering a revitalization of the nuclear industry in the United States. (1111)
Nuclear energy currently supplies a significant portion of America's energy. (1112-1113)
Nuclear power substantially reduces the threat of global warming.
Nuclear power emits no carbon dioxide. (1114)
Nuclear power will substantially reduce CO2 emissions. (1115-1117)
France shows that nuclear power can contribute to substantial reductions in carbon dioxide. (1118)
The current use of nuclear power in the United States is substantially reducing carbon dioxide emissions.	(1119-1120) Nuclear power is vastly superior to fossil fuels with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. (1121)
Nuclear power can substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (1122- 1127)
Nuclear power can substantially reduce the threat of global warming. (1128-1129)
Nuclear power will substantially decrease air pollution.
Nuclear power substantially reduces hazardous air pollution. (1130-1134)
Nuclear reactors need to replace fossil fuel generators to reduce hazardous air pollution. (1135- 1136)
Without nuclear energy the United States will be overwhelmed by pollution. (1137)
Nuclear energy is environmentally benign. (1138)
Nuclear energy has enormous potential as an energy source. (1139-1141)
Nuclear energy is a reliable source of energy. (1142)
Nuclear energy is a safe source of energy.
The risk of nuclear accidents is greatly exaggerated.(1143-1145)
Nuclear energy is tier safer than fossil fuel alternatives. (1146- 1150)
U.S. standards make U.S. nuclear reactors extremely safe. (1151-1152)
Recent technological advances have made nuclear power extremely safe. (1153-1158)
Nuclear storage is safe:.
Nuclear waste can be safely disposed. (1159-1161)
The dangers of nuclear waste are exaggerated. (1162-1164)
A safe nuclear waste storage facility is about to be built. (1165-1166)
The threat of transportation problems with nuclear waste is exaggerated. (1167)
U.S. reactors will not threaten national security.(1168-1169)
The threat to oceans from nuclear waste is exaggerated. (1170)
Nuclear energy is far more viable and practical than renewable energy alternatives. (1171I- 1174)
Nuclear energy is superior to other alternative forms of energy. (1175-1176)
Energy conservation is an effective way to decrease environmental pollution.
The present system is committed to energy conservation. (1177- 1178)
Conservation is and effective means of combating global warming. (1179-1180)
Conservation is a cost-effective policy. (1181)
Reforestation is an effective way of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.
The present system is committed to reforestation. (1182)
Forests trap carbon dioxide--preventing its release into the atmosphere. (1183-1184)
Reforestation will dramatically reduce carbon dioxide levels. (1185-1187)
Reforestation slows the rate of global warming--allowing time for the world to adapt to the greenhouse effect. (1188)

Geo-engineering can mitigate the harmful effects of global warming. (1189-1191)

ENERGY SECURITY

THE THREAT OF US OIL DEPENDENCE IS EXAGGERATED.
The threat of an energy crisis is exaggerated. (1192)
US energy consumption is significantly decreasing in the present system. (1193-1194)
Alternate oil supplies prevent heavy US dependence on Middle Eastern sources of oil. (1195-1197)

THE FEARS OF A GLOBAL ENERGY SHORTAGE ARE EXAGGERATED.
World oil reserves are abundant. (1198-1200)
World oil reserves are increasing under the present system. (1201-1204)
Low oil prices are evidence that the world does not face an imminent oil shortage. (1205)
The world has enough oil for the 21st century. (1206-1207)
Oil is not a finite commodity--there is always more oil. ( 1208-1209)
Reports of future oil shortages are exaggerated. (1210-1211)

THE DANGERS OF OIL DEPENDENCE ARE EXAGGERATED.
World oil prices are extraordinarily low and decreasing.
Oil prices are currently the lowest in history. (1212)
The decline in oil prices is continuing under the present system. (1213-1215)
Oil prices are stable in the present system. (1216-1217)
Oil prices will remain low well into the next century. (1218-1219)
The threat of rising oil prices is exaggerated. (1220-1221 )
The threat to the economy from oil dependence is exaggerated.
The risk of future oil shocks is exaggerated. (1222-1225)
The structure of the world economy prevents severe oil shocks. (1224-1225 )
Changing market conditions make oil shocks unlikely in the present system (1226)
Spot markets prevent oil shocks. (1227)
Futures markets prevent oil shocks. (1228-1229)
The fears of an oil shock triggered by Middle Eastern instability is exaggerated.
OPEC is not in control of world oil prices. (1230-1232)
Non-OPEC oil production has dramatically undermined OPEC's control over world oil prices. (1233)
Oil shocks stemming from OPEC are extremely unlikely. (1234-1235)
OPEC is unwilling to use oil for political purposes. (1236-1237)
OPEC is not a cohesive entity any "cut-off`' will be incomplete and ineffective. (1238)
Fears of an Islamic threat to western oil supplies are greatly exaggerated. (1239-1241 )
Oil shocks are an insignificant threat to the US economy. 
Oil shocks have insignificant economic impacts. (1242)
The lraq war shows that oil shocks have only short-term effects on the US economy. (1243)
The 1990's oil shocks were caused by poor US economic policies...not the damage of the oil shock itself. (1244-1246)
lnternational agreements substantially minimize the consequences of future oil shocks. (1247)
Oil shocks will not trigger inflation. (1248-1249)
The long-term threats to the energy from oil dependence are exaggerated.
Oil has an insignificant effect on the US trade deficit. (1250)
The benefits of cheap oil for the economy overwhelm any negative consequences. (1251-1253)
The environmental dangers of oil spills is exaggerated.
Oil spills are decreasing in the present system, (1254)
Oil spills are an insignificant threat to oceanic ecosystems. (1255-1256)
The Exxon Valdez oil spill had few long-term effects on the environment. (1257)
The danger of "oil wars" is exaggerated.
US oil dependence is not the reason the US is militarily engaged in the Middle East. (1258-1261)
The US military serves multiple functions in the Middle East. (1262)
The military is not an "externality" of US oil dependence. (1263-1266)
Reducing oil dependence does not "free" US foreign policy. (1267)

THE PRESENT SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF SOLVING THE HARMS OF US OIL DEPENDENCE.
US Domestic oil production will offset the dangers of oil dependency. (1268-1271)
The strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) provides the United States with adequate reserves of oil. (1272-1273)
Natural gas reserves can substitute for declines in oil production. (1274-1275)
Recent technological advances alleviate US oil dependency concerns. (1276-1277}
Increases in oil prices naturally trigger measures to reduce oil dependency--a change from the present system is unnecessary to reduce oil dependence. ( 1278-1280)
CHARGES IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM WILL NOT SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE OIL DEPENDENCE.
The benefits of an increase in the gasoline tax are exaggerated.
Gasoline producers are heavily taxed in the present system. (1281-1282)
An increase in the gasoline tax will not foster renewable energy use. (1283)
An increase in the gasoline tax will not substantially reduce environmental pollution. (1284-1285)
An increase in the gas tax would devastate the US economy. (1286)
Only an enormous increase in the gas tax would have any effect on oil dependency. (1287-1288)
The world is addicted to oil--the harms of oil dependency cannot be adequately addressed. (1289-1290)

TRANSPORTATION

THE HARM OF THE PRESENT SYSTEM'S ADDICTION TO NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY AS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF TRANSPORTATION FUELS ARE EXAGGERATED.
Technological improvements will cause air pollution from vehicles to substantially decrease. (1291-1292)
New regulations will reduce air pollution from automobiles. (1293)
There are no "externalities" from automobiles.
Automobile externalities are already paid for by auto users. (1294)
The subsidies are not an "externality" of automobile use. (1295-1297)
Automobile accidents are not an "extemality" of automobile use. (1298-1299)
Noise from automobiles is not an "externality" of automobile use. (1300-1301)
The disposal of automobile waste products is not an "externality" of automobile use. (1302-1303)
Social externalities of automobile use are exaggerated. (1304)
Water pollution is not an "externality" of automobile use. (1305)
Agricultural damage is not an "externality" of automobile use. (1306)
Studies of automobile extemalities are flawed. (1307)
Automobile extemality estimates ignore the benefits of automobiles. (1308-1310)

THE PRESENT SYSTEM IS ADEQUATE TO ADDRESS THE HARMS OF AUTOMOBILE USE
Present programs are solving automobile emissions. (1311)
Automobile pollution regulations are rapidly decreasing the levels of automobile emissions in the present system (1312-1315)
The Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles will cause rapid innovations to mitigate the harms of automobile use in the United States. (1316-1320)
The present system is committed to funding and research for alternate fuels. (1321-1325)
Implementation of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 will dramatically increase the use of clean automobile fuels in America. (1326-1327)
CHANGES IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM ARE INSUFFICIENT TO SOLVE THE HARMS OF AUTOMOBILE USE IN THE UNITED STATES.
Increasing the gasoline tax will not substantially increase the use of renewable automobile technologies.
A gas tax will not substantially increase the use of new automobile technologies. (1328-1329)
Gasoline taxes do not significantly improve fuel efficiency. (1330)
Governmental mandates will not significantly increase the use of renewable energy vehicles. (1331-1334)
Governmental mandates will not significantly increase the use of renewable energy fuels. (1335)
Aggressive governmental promotion of renewable automobile technologies is ineffective. (1336)
Rebates are ineffective at promoting renewable automobile technologies. (1337-1338)
An incremental approach to renewable automobile technologies is the most effective method to encourage renewable automobile technologies. (1339)
T}IE BENEFITS OF PARTICULAR RENEWABLE AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLOGIES ARE EXAGGERATED.
The benefits of electric vehicles are exaggerated.
Electric vehicles will not substantially reduce air pollution. (1340-1343)
Electric vehicles will not substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (1344-1345}
Technological barriers block the widespread use of electric vehicles. (1346-1348)
Electric vehicles are usable to fully replace standard automobiles. (1349)
Electric vehicles are not commercially viable. (1350-1351}
Consumers will reject electric vehicles in favor of standard automobiles. (1352)
The benefits of fuel cells are exaggerated.
The present system provides sufficient support for fuel cell technologies. (1353-1355)
Fuel cells are not cost competitive technologies. (1356-1358)
Fuel cell technologies are not commercially viable. (1359-1360)
Fuel cells are not technologically feasible. (1361-1362}
The benefits of renewable fuels are exaggerated.
Ethanol will not substantially reduce environmental pollution. (1363}
Ethanol will not substantially reduce CO2 emissions. (1364)
Ethanol will not substantially reduce US oil dependence. (1365)
Ethanol is not an efficient energy source. (1366)
Ethanol has fuel storage difficulties which prevent its widespread application for automobile fuel. (1367)
No alternate fuel can replace gasoline. (1368-1369)
Alternatives to renewable automobile technology are sufficient to solve the harms associated with automobile use.
Hybrid cars are sufficient to solve the harms associated	with automobile use.
Hybrid automobiles are ready in the present system--Japan will soon be selling enormous quantities of these autos in the US market. (1369-1370)
The present system is committed to developing hybrid vehicles. (1371-1373)
Hybrid vehicles will substantially reduce emissions of environmental pollutants. (1374-1375)
Hybrid vehicles will substantially reduce US oil dependence. (1376)
Hybrid vehicles are extremely fuel efficient. (1377-1378)
Hybrid vehicles are more cost-effective than electric vehicles. (1379)
Hypercars are sufficient to solve the harms associated with automobile use.
Hypercars will be on the market by the 21st century. (1380-1381)
Conventional cars will soon be obsolete. (1382)
Hypercars will be incredibly clean vehicles. (1383-1384)
Hypercars have enormous benefits. (1385)
Hypercars will have enormous benefits for fuel efficiency. (1386-1387)
Hypercars are technologically feasible. (1388)
Hypercars are extraordinarily safe. (1389-1391 )
Reformulated gasoline is sufficient to solve the harms associated with automobile use
The present system is committed to reformulated gasoline as an alternative fuel. (1392-1395)
Reformulated gasoline will substantially decrease emissions of environmental pollutants. (1396-1398)
Reformulated gasoline has no adverse health effects. (1399-1400)

ECONOMIC ISSUES

THE THREAT OF A LOST UNITED) STATES MARKET SHARE IN THE WORLD RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKETIS EXAGGERATED.
The United States is competitive in *'green" markets in the present system. (1401-1402)
The US exports a significant amount of environmental technologies in the present system. (1403.)
The United States is not falling behind in high-technology exports. (1404-1405}
The US has a strong export performance in the present system. (1406)
Germany is a minor player in the world energy market. (1407)
The United States has an adequate share of the solar PV market. (1408)

THE PRESENT SYSTEM PROVIDES ADEQUATE SUPPORT FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES.
Federal support for renewable research and development is significant and increasing. (1409-1412)
The present system actively promotes "green" technology exports. (1413-1414)
The federal government actively promotes research and development for solar energy. (1415-1416)

CHANGES IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM WILL FAIL TO PROMOTE A STRONG US SHARE IN WORLD ENERGY MARKETS.
Governmental efforts to stimulate research and development are flawed.
Governmental intervention to promote renewable technologies often decreases technological innovation. ( 1417-1419)
Empirically, government promotion of research and development efforts have failed to stimulate new technologies. ( 1420-1421)
The lack of effective evaluations undermines governmental research and development efforts. (1422-1423)
Governmental research facilities are inadequate to promote new renewable technologies. (1424-1425)
Private laboratories are more effective than government laboratories. (1426-1429)
A strong governmental role is inappropriate in efforts to stimulate renewable energy sources. (1430-1431)
Government funded research and development efforts produce few positive benefits. (1432)
Government industry cooperative measures fail to produce new renewable energy technologies. (1433)
Governmental efforts to stimulate wind power are ineffective.
Governmental efforts to promote wind power actually undermined wind technologies. (1434-1436)
Governmental subsidies undermine efforts to promote reliable wind energy. (1437)
Governmental research and development efforts fail to increase wind energy. (1438-1444)
Governmental research and development for wind has been wasteful and counterproductive. (1445-1447)
Governmental efforts to stimulate solar power are ineffective and counterproductive.
Governmental tax incentives fail to promote the solar energy industry. (1448-1451)
The best solar technology advances received no governmental support. (1452)
Advances in renewable technology will not capture a share of world environmental markets for the United States. (1453)

RELIANCE ON THE FREE MARKET IS THE BEST METHOD TO ACHIEVE ADVANCES IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES.
The free market best promotes renewable energy technology while protecting the environment.
The present system is committed to free-market approaches to promote renewable energy technology. (1454)
Governmental intervention to promote a particular technology disrupts free market choices about technological advancement. (1455)
Market forces are the best hope to spur technological innovations. (1456)
Market forces are superior to research and development in efforts to spur renewable energy technologies. (1457-1459)
Market forces are the best method to achieve pollution control. (1460-1461)
Market forces are superior to government regulations in promoting environmental quality. (1462-1466)
Regulations foster costly and time consuming litigation--a market approach is superior. (1467)
Fostering free property rights is the best method to reduce environmental pollution. (1468-1469)
Market forces choose the most cost-effective approach to achieve pollution control. (1470-1472)
Market forces balance economic concerns with environmental protection. (1473)
Market forces are a superior mechanism to foster wind power. (1474)
Reliance on market forces best promotes solar energy technologies. (1475-1479)
Command and control regulations are inferior to market forces to promote renewable energy technologies.
Command and control regulations stifle technological innovations. (1480-1481)
Command and control regulations fail to change the behavioral pattern of industry. (1482)
Attempting to mandate a particular technological approach fails to produce the most effective methods of pollution control. (1483-1487)
Market approaches are superior to command and control regulations in efforts to spur technological innovations. (1488)
5.Command and control regulations are inefficient. (1489-1491)
Command and control regulations are most cost-effective. (1492-1493)
Financial incentives are superior to regulations to reduce pollution. (1494-1496)
Command and control regulations have numerous inherent disadvantages (1497-1498 )
Market based approaches are superior to command and control regulations. (1499-1500)

GENERIC DISADVANTAGES
INFLATION: POLICIES TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY CAUSE WIDESPREAD INFLATION ANDECONOMIC DISASTER
The present system is on the verge of widespread inflation.
Wage inflation is on the brink of spiraling out of control. (1501)
Recent job figures raise the specter of wage inflation. (1502-1503)
As job market security increases--fears of accelerating inflation are being raised. (1504)
Inflation is under control in the present system.
The surging dollar is keeping inflation in check in the present system. (1505)
Interest rates are keeping inflation low under the present system. (1506-1507)
Interest is at its lowest level in 31 years. (1508)
Recent wage increases will not trigger inflation. (1509)
There will be no inflation outbreak under the present system. (1510-1511)
Recent unemployment figures will not trigger inflation. (1512-1514)
The recent increase in interest rates will not trigger an economic downturn.
The recent interest rate increase was moderate. (1515-1517)
There will be no future interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve Board. (1518-1520)
Policies to promote renewable energy system risk triggering widespread inflation.
Environmental regulations trigger widespread inflation.
Regulations are the cause of eighty to ninety percent of inflation in the present system. (1521)
The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board sees regulations as the cause of inflation. (1522)
Regulations undermine productivity gains--a key check on inflation. (1523)
Regulations cause production inefficiencies. (1524)
Environmental regulations cause widespread inflation. (1525-1526)
Increasing economic growth sparks renewed inflation. (1527)
Reductions in US trade deficit cause inflation.
Strong imports are a safety valve to reduce inflationary pressure. (1528)
Strong imports are needed to check supply-side inflation. (1529)
The Federal Reserve Board perceives imports as anti-inflationary. (1530)
A strong dollar keeps US inflation in check. (1531)
Reducing unemployment causes inflation.
A stronger labor market causes wage inflation. (1532-1533)
Empirically, job growth causes market tremors. (1534)
Wage increases cause inflation fears throughout the economy. (1535-1536)
Increases in the labor market will prompt the Federal Reserve Board to increase interest rates. (1537)
An increase in interest rates will devastate the economy.
The economic impact of an interest rate increase is disastrous. (1538)
Fear of an increase in interest rates cause a stock market crisis. (1530)
Increased interest rates stifle business activity. (1540)
Increased interest rates cause a recession. (1541)
Inflation fears spark a global economic crisis. (1542)
Inflation dramatically undermines the stock market. (1543)
Rising interest rates slow the economy. (1544-1546)
An economic downturn is disastrous.
An economic recession will level to an outright depression. (1547-1548)
Efforts to stabilize the economy will fail--a depression will spiral out of control. (1549-1550)
A depression will cause warfare around the globe. (1551)

NUCLEAR POWER: EFFORTS TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY UNDERMINE A NUCLEAR POWER REVIVAL
Nuclear power is increasing in the present system. (1552-1554)
Efforts to increase renewable energy undermine efforts to revitalize the nuclear power industry. (1555-1556)
Nuclear power is essential to stop widespread environmental pollution.
Nuclear power dramatically reduces atmospheric emissions of harmful environmental pollutants. (1557)
Nuclear power is essential to reducing global warming. (1558-1563)
Revitalization of nuclear power is essential for world peace and stability.
A revival of US nuclear power will dramatically decrease the risk of nuclear proliferation. (1564-1566)
Nuclear reprocessing will not increase the risk of nuclear proliferation. (1567)
Nuclear proliferation is disastrous to world peace and stability. (1568-1569)
Nuclear power is a cost-effective technology. (1570-1571)
The risk of nuclear accidents is exaggerated.
Nuclear power is safe. (1572-1574)
Regulations insure that nuclear power will be safe. (1575-1576)
The risk of radiation leakage is exaggerated. ( 1577-1578 )
The harms of nuclear waste are exaggerated. (1579)
On balance, nuclear power is the best form of energy. (1580-1581)

CORPORATE PROFITS: EFFORTS TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY STIFLE PRODUCTIVE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES.
Corporate profits are on the verge of collapse in the present system. (1582-1583)
The economy is strong in the present system.
A stable and steady economic expansion is underlying the present system. ( 1584-1585)
There is little risk of a recession in the present system. (1586-1590)
Unemployment is low in the present system. (1591-1593)
Investor confidence is high in the present system. (1594-1598)
International growth will increase throughout (1599)
Oil stocks are strong in the present system. (1600)
Consumer confidence is high in the present system. (1601-1602)
Efforts to promote renewable energy undermines corporate profits.
Environmental regulations hurt small business profit margins. (1603-1604)
Environmental regulations undermine large corporate profits. (1605)
Environmental regulations slow the entire economy. (1606-1608)
Regulations requiring adoption of a particular technology hurt businesses. (1609)
Regulations cause enormous productivity declines. (1610-1611I)
Efforts to reduce oil prices undermine corporate profits. (1612)
No new environmental regulations are coming in the present system. (1613-1616)
Business perceptions are crucial to strong corporate profits.
Perceptions of a healthy business climate are critical to business confidence. (1617)
Unpredictable government behavior shakes business confidence (1618-1620)
A predictable investment climate is essential for strong business confidence. (1621-1622)
Strong business confidence is key to the entire economy. (1623)
An economic downturn would be disastrous.
An economic recession could trigger a depression. (1624)
Fiscal policies will be unable to stave off the hazards of an economic downturn. (1625-1627)
An economic downturn can rapidly occur. (1628-1630) 
A US recession will quickly cause a global downturn. (1631)

MULTILATERAL REGIMES: UNILATERAL EFFORTS TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERMINE THE CONSENSUS NECESSARY FOR SOLUTIONS TO WORLD ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS.
International resource shortages will risk widespread conflicts.
Resource shortages are on the verge of occurring. (1632-1633)
Unchecked, resource shortages will trigger widespread conflicts throughout the globe. (1634-1638)
Unilateral actions undermine collective actions to solve for international environmental problems.
Unilateral US actions undermine the Third World actions in support of environmental regimes. (1639)
Unilateral action causes "free riders" undermining hopes for collective action. (1640-1643)
Strong multilateral action is the best way to manage upcoming environmental crisis.
International action is essential to solve environmental crisis. (1644-1647)
International cooperation is crucial to solving disputes over the environment. (1648)
Multilateral treaties are the best way to combat growing environmental crisis. (1649-1650)
Empirically, regimes are successful at handling environmental crisis. (1651)
Strong multilateral action is needed to stop species extinction. (1652)
Strong multilateral action is necessary to solve global warming. (1653)
Unilateral actions risk causing free riders and war. (1654)
International law is increasingly becoming accepted as a viable solution to global environmental crisis. (1655-1657)
The fears of non-compliance with multilateral regimes are exaggerated.
International agreements are being enforced as binding. (1658-1660)
Non-governmental organizations are policing and enforcing international accords. (1661)
Human rights laws prove that compliance with international environmental accord is likely. (1662)

TRADE WARS: MEASURES TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY RISK CREATING SPIRALING TRADE FRICTIONS AND WAR.
Global trade is at a cross-roads now. (1663)
The risk of a trade war is low in the present system.
The trade picture is improving for America now. (1664)
The US-Japan trade balance is improving. (1665-1667)
The present system will avoid a US-Japan trade war. (1668-1669)
The US trade deficit is narrowing now. (1670)
The world is on the brink of  protectionism.
Changes in the world economic structure put the world on the verge of new trade tensions. (1671)
Protectionism is in check now, but could easily reignite. (1672)
Policies to promote renewable energy undermine US competitiveness.
Measures to reduce CO2 emissions will dramatically undermine US competitiveness. (1673-1676)
Environmental regulations massively decrease US competitiveness. (1677-1681)
Environmental regulations trigger calls for protectionism. (1682)
Environmental regulations have a net negative effect on US competitiveness. ( 1683-1687)
Declining competitiveness results in protectionist lashouts. (1688-1689)
Domestic measures to promote renewable energy use undermine the World Trade Organization.
The WTO explicitly prohibits domestic environmental regulatory standards. (1690-1691)
Environmental regulations are in conflict with the free trade principles of the WTO. (1692)
Domestic environmental safeguards violate free trade standards. (1693-1697)
Carbon tax will violate the WTO. (1698-1699)
Increasing CAFE standards on automobiles will violate the WTO. (1700)
Subsidies violate the WTO. (1701 )
Developing countries will backlash against perceived protectionist actions. (1702)
Trade wars are disastrous for world peace and stability.
Trade tensions quickly escalate to outright trade wars. (1703)
Free trade is essential to stopping foreign aggression. (1704)
Free trade saves the environment. (1705-1706)
Protectionism undermines technological innovation. (1707-1708)
Free trade is essential to the US economy. (1709-1711)
Free trade causes interdependence--thus reducing the likelihood of war between nations. (1712-1715)
Protectionism will cause a split in the US-Japan security alliance. (1716)
A breakdown in the US-Japan security alliance triggers instability and warfare. ( 1717-1718 )
Trade wars lead to shooting wars. (1719)

CASPIAN OIL: MEASURES TO REDUCE US OIL DEPENDENCE WILL CAUSE A LOSS OF US INVESTMENT IN THE VITAL CASPIAN SEA AREA.
The United States is heavily investing in Caspian Sea oil development in the present system. ( 1720-1722)
Decreasing US oil dependence undermines the incentives for US investments in the Caspian area. (1723)
US investments in the Caspian Sea are necessary to check Russian aggression in the area.
US involvement in the Caspian Sea is needed to check Russian domination of the area. (1724-1725)
US involvement allows the Caspian natives to be assured of equitable access to the development of Caspian oil. (1726)
Independent oil revenues are critical to checking Russian domination of the Caspian nations. (1727-1731)
Russian domination of the Caspian Sea will trigger and enormous war. (1732)
A strong US presence is essential to stability in the Caspian region. (1733)
Access to Caspian oil will solve the harms of US oil dependence.
Enormous oil reserves exist beneath the Caspian nations (1734-17311)
Development of the Caspian Sea provides the US with an adequate alternative to Arab oil. (1739-1740)
Caspian oil rescues will prevent "oil shocks" from disrupting the US economy. (1741 -1742)
Political disputes will not prevent development of Caspian oil (1743-1746)
Russian moderates am unable to prevent Russian expansion into the Caspian Sea. (1747-1748)

DEFICITS DISASTER: INCREASING SPENDING ON RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES WILL RESULT IN A FINANCIAL DISASTER FOR THE UNITED STATES.
Now is the key time in decisions to reduce the deficit. (1750)
The federal budget deficit is under control in the present system.
The federal budget deficit is declining in the present system. (1751-1753)
The political parties are committed to credible deficit reduction in the present system. (1754-1758)
Investors are pleased with current deficit reductions-but a rising deficit will undermine investment decisions. (1759-1761)
Current market troubles are exaggerated. (1762-1764)
A rising budget deficit results in economic chaos and war.
Rapid increases in federal spending risk an economic crash. (1765-1767)
Deficit reduction is essential to sustained economic growth. (1768-1770)
The next recession will trigger a depression. (1771-1772)
Weak economic growth undermines international cooperation. (1773-1774)
Strong economic growth is essential to stopping wars throughout the world. (1775-1778)

ENVIRONMENTAL ETHIC: EFFORTS TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL UNDERMINE EFFECTIVE GRASSROOTS SOLUTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS.
Grassroots environmentalism is increasing in the present system.
Grassroots environmentalism is significant and increasing in the present system. (1779-1781)
Grassroots environmentalism is crucial for the future of the environmental movement. (1782)
The US environmental movement is only beginning--it will grow and increase in the future. (1783-1785)
A broad environmental coalition is now forming in America. (1786)
The new grassroots movement is embracing a new paradigm for environmentalism. (1787)
Policies to promote renewable energy use will undermine the US environmental movement.
Legislation solutions to environmental problems undermine grassroots environmental movements. (1788-1790)
Federal actions to solve environmental problems undermine local solutions to environmental hazards. (1791-1792)
Legislative solutions will not promote the goals of grassroots environmental movements. (1793)
Technological solutions will undermine environmental consciousness. (1794-1795)
Environmental crises are necessary to spur environmental consciousness--perceived solutions will undermine these movements. (1796-1797)
"Compromise" solutions will undermine grassroots movements. (1798-1799)
Grassroots movements will perceive energy policies as environmental policies. (1800)
Grassroots environmentalism is essential for survival.
A paradigm shift in the way individuals view nature is necessary for survival. (1801)
Wholesale reform of existing institutions is necessary to prevent ecological catastrophes. (1802-1805)
Grassroots movements are extraordinarily effective at solving environmental pollution. (1806-1807)
Grassroots environmentalism is capable of remedying environmental harms. (1808-1810)

CAPITAL FLIGHT: MEASURES TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL CAUSE POLLUTING INDUSTRIES TO "FLEE" TO THE THIRD WORLD.
World capital markets are extremely competitive---capital travels to the most cost-effective areas of the world. (1811-1813)
The United States must actively compete for capital and talent. (1814-1815)
Efforts to promote renewable energy use will cause a capital flight to the Third World nations.
Increased environmental standards raise capital costs in the United States--triggering a flight to Third World countries. (1816-1817)
Environmental efficiency is disfavored by capital markets--environmentally efficient industries will flee to the least costly areas. (1818-1820)
Environmental regulations will trigger capital flight. (1821)
Higher costs will trigger a capital flight to Third World nations (1822-1823)
A capital flight to the Third World nations is disastrous.
Unilateral regulations will generate economic disaster in the US as capital flees the country. (1824)
Third World Nations will actively seek capital from multi-national corporations. (1825)
A capital flight to the Third World will be disastrous for Third World nations. (1826-1828)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OVERSTRETCH:  UNDERMINING THE FOCUS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY'S FOCUS ON PLUTONIUM CONVERSION IS DISASTROUS.
The Department of Energy (DOE) must convert plutonium into mixed oxide fuel for reprocessing.
The DOE must begin the plutonium conversion process immediately. (1829)
The DOE is on the brink of becoming overstretched. (1830)
Promoting renewable energy overstretches the DOE.
Changing DOE priorities undermines the management of the plutonium conversion initiative. (1831)
The DOE must remain focused on plutonium conversion for the process to be successful. (1832-1835)
Overburdening the DOE undermines the plutonium conversion process. (1834-1835)
Plutonium conversion is beneficial for world peace and stability.
Plutonium conversion dramatically reduces the risk of nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation. (1836-1838)
Plutonium conversion will ensure the availability of vast quantities of energy. (1839-1841)
Russia is incapable of disposing of spent plutonium--US conversion is critical to decrease the diversion risk. (1842)
Plutonium conversion is the only way to rid the world of plutonium. (1843-1845)
Massive conversion is feasible. (1846-1848)
US conversion will not cause proliferation--other nations are already converting plutonium. (1849)
The reactor option is the best method to rid the world of spent plutonium. (1850-1851)

TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION: TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES BY THE UNITED STATES BENEFIT THIRD WORLD ELITES AT THE EXPENSE OF THE POOR.
The present system is not causing the problems associated with technological diffusion.
Technological diffusion is under control in the present system. (1852)
The socioeconomic "gap" between rich and poor is narrowing in the present system. (1853-1854)
The United States is critical in determining development gap dynamics. (1855-1856)
Technological innovations widen socioeconomic gap
Energy technologies do not "diffuse" evenly--the elite are benefited long before the technologies became widespread enough to benefit the lower socio-economic classes. (1857-1858)
The spread of technological innovations to other countries benefits elite groups at the expense of the poor. (1859)
Diffusion risks are not "linear"---certain groups are benefited before others. (1860-1861)
Technological diffusion is a slow process. (1862-1865)
Diffusion "trickles down" benefiting the elite before the masses. (1866-1867)
Technological diffusion is disastrous.
Trickle-down diffusion widens socio-economic gaps. (1868-1873)
Empirically, technological diffusion widens socio-economic gaps. (1874)
Technological diffusion increases inequalities, (1875)
Energy alternatives widen development gaps. (1876-1877)
Technological innovations will not increase sustainable development. (1878)
Widening socio-economic disparities trigger instability and war. (1879)
'Pro-technology diffusion sources are biased.
Pro-diffusion evidence is based on a bias favoring technological innovation. ( 1880-1884)
The side effects of technological diffusion are underestimated. (1885)

CLINTON CREDIBILITY: RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICIES BOLSTER PRESIDENT CLINTON'S APPROVAL RATING ALLOWING HIM TO PURSUE A DANGEROUS AND RECKLESS AGENDA.
President Clinton's public approval ratings are shaky in the present system.
A wave of political scandals threatens President Clinton's standing with the American public. (1886-1887)
Political scandals are already negatively influencing Clinton's public approval rating. (1888)
Scandals threaten Clinton's hopes of passing his political agenda. (1889-1891)
Scandals threaten Clinton's foreign policy agenda. (1892)
Policies to promote renewable energy are overwhelmingly popular with the public.
The American public overwhelmingly favors policies to promote renewable energy. (1893-1896)
The American public favors initiatives to promote wind power. (1897-1898)
The American public favors initiatives to promote solar power. (1899)
The American public supports efforts to promote ethanol. (1900)
Policies to protect the environment are overwhelmingly popular with the public.
The American public overwhelmingly supports initiatives designed to improve the quality of the environment. (1901-1906)
The public supports environmental initiatives even when the economy suffers as a result. (1907-1908)
The environmental lobby is extremely powerful in America. (1909-1911)
The public supports measures to reduce our pollution. (1912)
The American public wants CO2 reduction initiatives. (1913)
The American public favors domestic initiatives. (1914)
The American public favors alternatives to nuclear energy. (1915-1918)
Public popularity is essential to Clinton's agenda priorities 
Public support is key to allowing Clinton to push his agenda priorities through a Republican Congress. (1919-1922)
Legislative successes bolster the Presidents agenda. (1923)
Popularity on the environment is essential to Clinton's agenda. (1924)
Clinton actively uses public support to aid in efforts to pass his agenda. (1925-1926)
Large agenda priorities require strong public backing for the President. (1927)
Strong public support for Clinton causes the Republicans to acquiesce to Clinton's agenda priorities. (1928)
Strong public support allows Clinton a second chance to pass his agenda. (1929)
Clinton will co-opt popular issues to push no agenda. (1930)
Clinton's agenda is dangerous and reckless.
Clinton's support for the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is disastrous for world peace and stability.
President Clinton has made NATO expansion a top foreign policy priority for his administration. (1931-1937)
NATO expansion will face a tough vote in the United States Senate. (1938-1939)
Current support for NATO expansion is weak in the Senate. (1940-1941)
Gaining support of a strong coalition is the key to the success of N ATO expansion. (1942)
Senate support is essential for the effort to expand NATO. (1943-1945)
Clinton will require strong Congressional support to expand N ATO. (1946-1947)
US backing of NATO expansion will cause the alliance to be expanded. (1949)
NATO expansion is disastrous for world peace and stability.
NATO expansion will cause Russia to redeploy its nuclear forces--greatly increasing the likelihood of a nuclear war. (1950-1953)
NATO expansion will cause Russian aggression against NATO. (1954)
NATO expansion will trigger a backlash from the Russian military. (1955)
NATO expansion will undermine US-Russian arms control efforts. (1956-1957)
NATO expansion will devastate Russia's economy. (1958-1959)
NATO expansion will undermine democratic reforms in Russia. (1960-1961)
NATO expansion will trigger rampant Russian nationalism. (1962-1964)
NATO expansion will shatter US-Russian relations--triggering a new Cold War. (1965-1972)
NATO expansion will not promote economic development in Central Europe. (1973-1974)
Clinton 's support for an agenda of US international "primacy" is disastrous for world peace and stability.
Clinton is pushing an agenda of strong US leadership and major commitments of US world power. (1975)
Clinton is actively promoting a dominant US role in cooperative security agreements. (1976-1978)
US leadership is critical to cooperative security agreements. (1979)
"Primacy" will trigger widespread international conflicts. (1980-1981)
"Primacy" will trigger an "imperial overstretch" leading to outright US isolationism. (1982)
US isolationism will trigger widespread conflicts around the globe. (1983-1985)
Isolationism will destroy US influence. (1986)
isolationism has catastrophic consequences for world peace and stability. (1987-1991)
"Primacy" undermines the US ability to act for humanitarian purposes. (1992)
"Primacy" fails to serve US interests--other nations will never cooperate with American international policies. (1993-1996)
"Primacy" will require enormous defense expenditures. (1997-1998)
"Primacy" will cause NATO expansion. (1999)
"Primacy" is open-ended and self-defeating. (2000)

I. Erik Beckman (Prof., Crim. Just., MI St. U.), THE CRIMINAL JUST. DICTIONARY, 93, 82.
"Federal: Pertaining to the national government of the United States."

2. Daniel Oran (Ed.), ORAN'S DICTIONARY OF THE LAW, 83, 169.
"Federal I. A federal union is a uniting of two or more states into one strong central government with many powers left to the states. 2. The U.S. federal government is the national, as opposed to state, government."

3. Henry Black (Ed.), BLACK'S LAW DICTIONARY, 90, 695.
"Federal government The government of the United States of America. as distinguished from the governments of the several states."

4. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 255.
"To 'establish' means to originate and secure the permanent existence of; to found; to institute; to create and regulate; to make stable and firm."

5. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 255.
"'Establish' means to found, create, originate. or institute. State v. Fernandina Port Authority in Nassau County, 32, So.2d 328, 329, 159 Fla. 529."

6. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 255.
"' Establish,' as used in Coast. 1869, art. 5,  19, providing that the Legislature shall establish new counties, should be construed to mean the same as the word 'create.' State v. Cook. 14 S.W. 996, 999, 78 Tex. 406."

7. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 261.
"To 'establish' means to originate, to found, to institute, to create; not to add to something which has already been brought into existence."

8. WORDS & PHRASES, 67. 250.
"Statutory provision authorizing condemnation of land to establish or enlarge cemetery fur city's use, demonstrates that 'establish' and 'enlarge' are mutually exclusive Temple v. City of Petersburg, 29 S.E.2d 357, 359, 182 Va. 418."

9. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 255.
"The word 'create' is equivalent to the word 'establish.' The words 'establish' and 'maintain' signify two distinct separate purposes. 'Establish' if given the commonly understood meaning of word 'create' is not synonymous with 'maintain' and the words denote independent purposes."

10. COLLINS ENGLISH DICTIONARY. 3rd Ed., 91, I.
"a (indefinite article) I. used preceding a singular countable noun, if the noun is not previously specified or known: a dog: a terrible disappointment"

I 1. WEBSTEWS II NEW COLLEGE DICTIONARY. 95, I.
"a (indefinite article) I. Used before nouns and noun phrases that denote single. but unspecified, person or thing <a mountain> <a woman>"

12. WEBSTER'S II NEW COLLEGE DICTIONARY, 95, I.
"a -- Used before a mass noun to indicate a single type or example"

13. LONGMAN DICTIONARY OF CONTEMPORARY ENGLISH (3rd ed.), 95, 1089.
"Policy. A course of action that has been officially agreed and chosen by a political party business, or other organization: the government's disastrous economic polities/ The company operates a very strict policy on smoking '

14. RANDOM HOUSE COMPACT UNABRIDGED DICTIONARY (Special Edn.), 96, 1497.
"Policy. I. A definite course of action adopted for the sake of expediency, facility, etc.: We have a new company policy. 2. A course of action adopted and pursued by a government, ruler, political party, etc.: our nation's foreign policy"

15. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 758.
"'Substantial' number of tenants engaged in production of goods for commerce means that at least 20 per cent. of building be occupied by tenants so engaged Ullo vs. Smith, D. C.N.Y., 62 F. Supp. 757, 760"

16. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 762.
"'Substantial' is a relative term, the meaning of which is to be gauged by all the circumstances surrounding the transaction in reference to which the expression has been used. and it imports a considerable mount of value in opposition to that which is inconsequential or small. Application of Scroggin, Cal.App., 229 P.2d 489, 491."

37

17. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 759.
"'Substantial' is relative term, the meaning of which is to be gauged by all the circumstances surrounding the transaction, in reference to which the expression has been used. It imports a considerable amount or value in opposition to that which is inconsequential or small."

18. CORPUS JURIS SECUNDUM, 83, 763-64.
"[Substantial] The term is frequently employed to indicate that which is serious as opposed to that which is trivial, and in this sense is defined as meaning that [which] is of moment; important, essential; material; fundamental; pertaining to fundamental right or to the merits, as distinguished from questions of mere form or manner."

19. CORPUS JURIS SECUNDUM, 83, 765.
"Substantially. A relative and elastic term which should be interpreted in accordance with the context in which it is used. While it must be employed with care and discrimination, it mast, nevertheless. be given effect."

20. WORDS & PHRASES, 67, 762.
"'Substantial' is a relative word, which, while it must be used with care and discrimination, must nevertheless be given effect, and in a claim of patent allowed considerable latitude of meaning where it is applied to such subjects as thickness, as by requiring two parts of a device to be of substantially the same thickness. and cannot be held to require them to be of exactly the same thickness."

21. WEBSTER'S NEW WORLD COLLEGE DICTIONARY (3rd ed.), 96. 684.
"! Increase. To become greater in size. amount. degree. etc."

22. THE OXFORD DESK DICTIONARY (Am. Ed.), 95. 286.
"Increase. Make or become greater or more numerous."

23. J. Twidell (Prof.. Physics. U. Strathclyde), DICTIONARY OF ENERGY, 82. 238.
"Renewable supplies are continuously available and therefore cannot be depleted."

24. Brian Fellows (Energy Policy Analyst. AZ Energy Office), ARIZONA'S RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES. Feb.. 95 (Online. http://www.state.az.us/ep/energy/shtml, 2/13/97).
"By definition. renewable energy resources are resources that can be replenished, renewed, regenerated, or sustainably grown."

25. J. Twidell (Prof.. Physics. U. Strathclyde). DICTIONARY OF ENERGY, 82. 237.
"Renewable energy: Flows of energy occurring naturally and repeatedly in the environment. There are three sources for useful renewable energy on earth: the sun, geothermal energy from within the earth, and tidal range power from the rise and fall of tides resulting from the attractive forces and orbital energy of the moon and earth acting together with respect to the sun. These sources and flows are contrasted with non-renewable finite sources. e.g., fossil, nuclear, and chemical sources, whose energy is released by the action of time.'

26. TEXAS RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION NEWS, Dec. 2, 96 (Online, http://www.austin360.com/greenzone/ greia/news.htm. 2/13/97).
A renewable energy technology does not rely on energy resources derived from fossil fuels, waste products from fossil fuels. or waste products from inorganic sources."

27. PUBLIC LAW 101-218 101STCONGRESS---IST SESSION, Dec. I1. 89--PUBLIC LAW 101-218 SYNOPSIS.
"This Act may be referred to as the 'Renewable Energy and Energy Technology Competitiveness Act of 1989.' There are authorized to be appropriated to the Secretary for the following renewable energy research. development, and demonstration programs: the Wind Energy Research Program, the Photovoltaic Energy Systems Program, the Solar Thermal Energy Systems Program, the Biofuels Energy Systems Program. the Hydrogen Energy Systems Program, the Solar Buildings Energy Systems Program, the Ocean Energy Systems Program, and the Geothermal Energy Systems Program."


28. PUBLIC LAW 102-486, 102ND CONGRESS---2ND SESSION, OCT. 24, 92.
"To provide for improved energy efficiency. This Act may be cited as the 'Energy Policy Act of 1 992.' Otherwise take into account the reporting burdens of energy information by small businesses. As used in this subsection, the term 'renewable energy resources' includes energy derived from solar thermal, geothermal, biomass, wind, and Photovoltaic resources."'

29. WEBSTER'S NEW WORLD COLLEGE DICTIONARY (3rd ed.), 96, ! 404.
"To. So as to result in (sentenced to ten years in prison).

30. COLLINS ENGLISH DICTIONARY, 3rd Ed., 91, 1679.
"United States of America. A federal republic mainly in North America consisting of 50 states and the District of Columbia."

31. Hugh W. Ellsaesser (Atmospheric Sci.. Lawrence Livermore Nat'l. Lab) in 21ST CENT. SCI. & TECH., Summer. 95, 61.
"The record warmth of 1990, by the way, itself lies on shaky ground because it is supported only by surface-based observations. Satellite data indicate that the record warm anomalies over Eurasia causing 1990 to be the warmest year were largely balanced by large negative anomalies over the Arctic Ocean where there were few if any surface observing stations to record them. In other words, the record warmth of 1990 was the result of a fluke in the distributions of the temperature anomalies and of the network of surface observing stations recording them."

32. William Peirce (Prof., Eco.. Case Western Reserve U.). ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96. 274-5.
"The available scientific evidence does not support the theory of global warming. Average temperatures fluctuate, but seem to have fallen from 1979 to 1994."

33. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95, 294.
"Karl, of the National Climatic Data Center, has demonstrated that U.S. midsummer and daytime highs have changed little during the postwar period. Public perceptions aside. summers of the 1980s were not unprecedented scorchers. P.D. Jones, a prominent British climatologist, reinforced this conclusion in 1993 when in the technical journal Holocene he wrote, 'Summers are no warmer now than they were in the 1860s and 1870s. "'

34. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 282.
"It is a fallacy to assert, as some greenhouse zealots do, that the rising temperatures of the 1980s prove the Earth is warming. It would be equally fallacious to argue that the cool summers of the early 1990s show that a greenhouse effect is not due. Neither trend proves either case, both being too brief to bear statistical significance."

35. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95, 280-1.
"A net world increase of about one-third of one degree Fahrenheit is what made the 1980s the hottest decade 'on record.' Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, computes one-third of one degree as the standard deviation, or natural variability, of the weather. In other words the warm 1980s might be an omen. Or mean nothing whatsoever."

36. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING,. 96, 7.
"The other aspect of the debate concerns the historic climate. There has, we are told, been a measurable warming in the past 100 years. Climatologists at the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia say that 'the causes of the warming are less certain than the trend itself,' which they put at between 0.8C and 2.6C. The IPCC report talks of a 'real, but irregular' warming, and confirms, in its most recent 1993 report, earlier estimates of a likely 2alC warming over the next 100 years. The truth is that 100 years is an eyeblink in comparison with the age of the Earth, in particular, the hundreds of millions of years that have passed since Pangea first broke up and for the first time brought climates into existence."

38

37. Graham P. Chapman & Thackwray S. Driver (Prof & Rsrch. Fellow, Geography, U. Lancaster, UK) in TIME SCALES & ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 265.
"Despite the large literature on environmental change over these time-scales, long-term environmental change is rarely considered by people thinking about contemporary environmental change. One of the consequences of this is that the impact of humans on the environment is emphasized at the expense of the environment's own instability. There is. perhaps, a tendency in popular environmentalism to see studies of environmental change over these longer time-scales as purely an academic exercise."

38. Graham P. Chapman & Thackwray S. Driver (Prof & Rsrch. Fellow, Geography, U. Lancaster, UK) in TIME SCALES & ENVIR. CHANGE. 96, 264.
"Fernandez-Armesto has used a century time-scale in order to move away from a Eurocentric history; social scientists interested in environmental change could learn from this. Fairhead and Leach show how our understanding of rain forests in West Africa has been influenced by a view of history that attributes all change to outsiders. By taking a longer perspective on people-vegetation interactions they clearly show the relationship to be dynamic and in a constant state of flux."

39. Graham P. Chapman & Thackwray S. Driver (Prof. & Rsrch. Fellow. Geography, U. Lancaster, UK) in TIME SCALES & ENVIR. CHANGE. 96, 263.
"It is over the century time-scale that humans have developed the industrial techniques that are now blamed for polluting the physical world and destroying much of the biological world. Support for the 'South' position on climate change (outlined in Chapman. Chapter 11 and the Editors: Note on Chapter 5) will be strengthened by calculations of atmospheric pollution that go back longer than a century to the birth of European industrialization. It is over the century time-scale, too, that we see the rise and decline of European imperialism that has so transformed the biological world; from the deliberate plundering of Asian, African, and American resources to the unintended spread of new crops, weeds, and diseases (see Crosby 1986). It is over the century time-scale that we can starkly expose the myth of stability in the biological world that drives our lives over rain forest loss at a generational time-scale."

40. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,278-9.
"Eight of the last 14 years have been warm. 'The year 1990 was, of course, just the latest "warmest year on record,"' wrote Vice President Gore in Earth in the Balance. Warm compared to what'? 'The record' goes back only to the 1880s, when systematic preservation of weather data began. It turns out that the late 1800s was a cold period. Earth could experience 'record' warmth relative to the 1880s and remain cool compared to the bulk of its past."

41. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,270.
"A perspective: Did the hot 1980s seem hot to nature.'? No, the decade was chilly by nature's standards and even somewhat cool by the standards of recent history."

42. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gem, lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH.. Winter. 96-97, 54.
"From 1979 to 1990. and during the time of most rapid buildup in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. the satellite-based temperature measurements have shown a planetary warming of only 0,001 C (including data from 1991 and 1992 would lower this value because of the cooling effects from the aerosols produced by Mt. Pinatubo). Most of the numerical models of climate suggest that the warming (given the known increase in equivalent CO2) should be of the order of 0.3C over the same period of time. The satellite data indicate virtually no warming at all, and certainly do not support the claim of accelerated warming in recent decades."

43. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 40.
"Thus far, no large or rapid increases in temperature have occurred, and there is no evidence yet of a CO2-induced temperature or climate change. One projection of the GCMs is that warming would start first and grow fastest at the poles. Yet a major study of satellite data has shown a slight cooling trend above the arctic, with warming only at night, and only in the southern hemisphere."

44. Ronald Bailey (Contrib. Ed.. Reason Mag.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 2-3.
"More recently, the original global climate models that predicted significant global warming as a result of higher levels of human-generated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appear to have overestimated potential increases in global temperatures by as much as an order of magnitude. The earth's atmosphere has actually cooled by 0. 10 degrees Celsius since 1979, according to highly accurate satellite-based atmospheric temperature measurements."

45. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 95-6.
"Despite all the talk about global warming during the 1980s, the buildup of greenhouse gases during the 1979 to 1994 time period, and the anticipated 0.3 per decade warming, the highly accurate satellite-based global temperature measurements not only show no warming but show very real cooling."

46. Anthony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 13.
"In any event scientific analysis of the Earth and its atmosphere reveals nothing out of the ordinary. Physicist Philip Abelson points out that satellite measurements prove only that wide variabilities in temperatures have taken place between 1979 and 1988. North Pole atmospheric records show no signs of a warming even after 40 years of study."

47. CONSUMER REPORTS. Sept., 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/2/97), 38.
'The measured century-long warming trend is an illusion. 'Satellite data--the only truly global measurements, available since 1979. show no warming at all, but actually a slight cooling,' writes S. Fred Singer of the Science and Environmental Policy Project in Virginia."

48. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95, 280.
"John Christy, a University of Alabama at Huntsville scientist who heads the NASA air temperature study. says. 'We don't see any global warming in our data. and our satellites monitor the entire world. not just urban areas like the ground-temperature studies."'

49. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover lnst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 148.
"Satellite data have also failed to find any significant increase in temperature since the first readings in 1979. Moreover, even the National Academy of Sciences is skeptical of the validity of the computer models and warns that the modeling of clouds--a key factor--is inadequate and poorly understood."

50. Robert Watson (Staff. White House Office of Sci. & Tech.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS. 96, 26-7.
 'A big deal has been made about an inconsistency between the ground base record and the satellite record, the argument being that the satellite record shows no real increase in temperature over the last 15 years. and the ground base record does. That's a fact. But if you look at the error bars in the two systems, they overlap each other. So statistically speaking, there is no inconsistency."

51. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 84.
"Accuracy in land-based measurements of global temperatures is frustrated by the dearth of stations, frequent station relocation's, and changes in how oceangoing ships make measurements."

52. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 280.
"In the United States. six of the ten years of the 1980s were indisputably warm in the urban areas. This was taken in many quarters as proof that an inexorable global warming had begun. Then the trend dissipated, with 1991 and 1992 being slightly cool for American cities. Greenhouse true believers attributed this decline to the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which ejected large amounts of sun-filtering aerosols into the stratosphere. Tests showed that by late 1992 most Pinatubo effects had washed out of the air, suggesting that if an emergency global warming were in progress it ought to resume in 1993. But global temperatures recorded by NASA satellites for 1993 remained slightly below the 1980s average."

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53. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 50.
"Simply stated, the warming has not occurred that is predicted by the GCMs. It is now clear that CO2 models predicting a global warming, ranging from approximately 1.9 to 5.2C, and greater by a factor of three or four at the poles (MacDonald et al., 1979), with a doubling of atmospheric CO2, have not been validated by observational data."

54. Herbert Guvsky (Naval Rsrch. Lab, Wash., DC) in PLASMA SCI. & THE ENVIR., 96, 7-8.
"The ice-core records indicate large increases and decreases occurring for no apparent reason, albeit on very different time scales. Thus. we may simply be in a natural cycle when he global temperature is increasing and the next 100 years could easily witness a downturn. The data themselves are not monotonically increasing. The largest increase occurred in the past 15 years. which followed a 40-year interval of relatively stable temperatures."

55. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps lnst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST, Nov. 16, 95. 119.
"The ice-core data are useful benchmarks against which the Keeling findings on CO2 (Barnola et al., 1979; Jouzel et al., 1987) can be compared. By calculating the ratio of oxygen isotopes to CO2 in the ice. scientists have gained insights into whether changes in CO2 concentrations led or followed alterations in surface temperature. High-resolution analyses suggested that the temperature changes may have actually preceded changes in atmospheric (x)2."

56. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly,). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 74.
"Analysis of the ice in Greenland glaciers, much of it millennia old. is thought to provide the most accurate inferences about past temperatures. In July of 1993 the two Greenland teams, one led by scientists from the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen. the second a consortium of French. Icelandic. and American universities, announced their findings. The cores appeared to confirm the idea of regular nonlinear effects in nature."

57. Anthony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96. 15.
"Considerable publicity was given to the giant iceberg that broke away from Antarctica in early 1995, 'roughly the size of Luxembourg.' and said by some to be definitive proof of a global warming. And yet throughout time similar icebergs have drilled away as snow accumulates and new ice squeezes out the old. In 1986 three 'megabergs' broke away from Antarctica, each bigger than the most recent."

58. Lou Bergeron (Jrnlst.) in NEW SCIENTIST, Jan. 4, 97. 14.
"FIVE times in the past 4500 years, immense flotillas of icebergs have surged into the North Atlantic from the Arctic Ocean. The surges. known as Heinrich events. have puzzled scientists ever since they were discovered in the 1980s. Now researchers in the US think the iceberg surges are caused by irregularities in the Earth's motion."

59. Peter Chaston (Meteorologist, Nat'l. Weather Serv.). TERROR FROM THE SKIES, 95, 26.
"Data from satellites such as 'Geosat' showed that parts of the ice sheet (glacier) over southern Greenland thickened at an average annual ram of about six inches per year from 1978 through 1987. Follow-up data from surface observations and aircraft-borne laser sensors show that the ice increased by some six to seven feet from 1980 through 1993."

60. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95. 165.
"It is concluded, however, that the melting of the ice sheet is veryD' unlikely and virtually impossible by the year 2100. Estimates based on the combined oceanic and atmospheric GCM suggest that several hundred years will be required to affect this degree of warming."

61. Robert Bailing (Prof.. Geography. AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 97-8.
"Figure 3-4 presents updated Arctic-area annual near-surface air temperature anomalies over the past century. The amount of linear warming over the past century in the in the Arctic is 1.03C, and at first glance. this trend appears to be supportive of the projections from the models. However. over the most recent fifty years of the record and during the time of the greatest greenhouse gas increase, Arctic temperatures have actually cooled (emphasis in original) by 0.88C. Virtually all of the Arctic warming of this century occurred in and around the 1920s."


62. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gem, Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21 ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 59.
"Special attention was paid to the Arctic-Ocean, when teams from the United States, Canada, and Russia occupied stations that had been visited repeatedly since 1937. The results? There is no warming trend in the Arctic, and has been none since 1937. Indications by the Canadian team of warmer than normal water turned out to be an intrusion of water from the Atlantic. In the past 60 years, the Arctic ice pack has neither retreated nor thinned. These data are not controversial!"

63. Robert M. White (Pres. Emeritus, Nat'l. Acad. of Engineering) in TECHNOLOGY REV., Aug./Sept., 96, 63.
"Atmospheric conditions are naturally variable from day to day, even when overall climate, which is the average of these daily events, remains stable. Inevitably, weather extremes and anomalies result. Global warming and El Nino are worthy of the investments now being made to study their seasonal, year-to-year, and climatic consequences. However, a public led to believe that these phenomena directly influence daily weather will inevitably become disillusioned with the value of this research when expectations are not realized."

64. Marsha Freeman (Assoc. Ed.) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Spring 95, 55.
"Recent climate data have failed to substantiate predictions of global warming models. One reason given to explain this is the supposed counter-cooling effect of sulfur particulate emissions into the atmosphere."

65. Hugh W. Ellsaesser (Atmospheric Sci., Lawrence Livermore Nat'l. Lab) in 21ST CENT. SCI. & TECH., Summer, 95.58-9.
"Since the first model-produced estimate of 2.36 of greenhouse warming for a doubling of carbon dioxide by Suki Manabe and Dick Wetherald in 1967, the observational temperature record has consistently failed to reveal climate warming as rapidly as predicted by the climate models."

66. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, II.
"This historical evidence is consistent with only some of the forecasts of the computer climate models. Most climate estimates indicate that a doubling of CO2 would generate greater rainfall in middle latitudes, and history shows that warm climates do produce more wet weather (CrowIey 1993, 21). As has been found in the historical record, land temperatures should increase more than water, thus strengthening monsoons. The models also predict that sea-surface temperatures in the tropics would be higher with increased CO2, but evidence from the past evinces no such relationship (ibid., 25).'

67. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 43.
"Most projections are based on temperature increases resulting from a doubling of the current or preindustrial atmospheric CO2 levels. Doubling is expected to occur sometime during the middle or the latter half of the 21" century. The scenarios based on models show one thing and real world observations show another."

68. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 51.
"Models have consistently predicted a greater warming in the northern than southern hemisphere because of the greater extent of land in the north, which responds to radiative forcing. The opposite, however, has occurred. There was a 0.3C increase between 1955 and 1985 in the south with no warming in the north. Strangely, the IPCC supplementary report (1992) to the 1990 report states that 'the size of the warming is broadly consistent with the predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability."' [Emphasis in original]

69. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 84.
"Temperature records reveal that predictive models are off by a factor of two when applied retroactively in projecting the change in global temperature for this century."

70. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 84.
"Although all of the greenhouse computer models predict that the greatest warming will occur in the Arctic region of the Northern Hemisphere, temperature records indicate that the Arctic has actually cooled by 0.88C over the past fifty years."

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71. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 91.
"Given the approximate 40 percent increase in atmospheric concentration of equivalent CO2 over this 1881 -to- 1993 time period, the observed rise in temperature is low given numerical model predictions for a doubling of equivalent CO2. Given this buildup in equivalent CO2, the models suggest that we should have observed at least 1.0V of warming over the same period. Even if all of the 0.54V can be ascribed to the effect of greenhouse gases, the models appear to be off by a factor of two."

72. Peter Guerrero (Dir., Envir. Protection, GAO) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 72.
"In an experiment conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the models estimated wintertime ocean temperatures were 7 degrees warmer than observed temperatures for the ice-bound region of Antarctica and 9 degrees colder than observed temperatures for the tropics. Scientists believe that the deviations stem from gaps in their understanding of the interactions between atmospheric and oceanic variables."

73. Patrick Michaels (Prof., Envir. Sci.. U. VA) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 29.
"In a recent paper in the Journal of Climate, J.F.B. Mitchell et al. Examined a climate model that was very similar to what was heavily cited by the United Nations in 1992. They found that such models predict that the atmosphere should have already warmed between 1.3 and 2.3C as a result of changes in greenhouse gases; the observed warming is 0.5C.''

74. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 56.
"The rationale is that the models have predicted much more warming than has already occurred. The GCMs. with their known flaws, form the only basis for predicting catastrophic warming, from a doubling of greenhouse gases, and particularly COL during the next century. If all the global warming of O.4 to 0.6C, which has occurred during the past century could be attributed to an increased greenhouse effect. it would still be only one-third to one-half of the lowest now being predicted by current models."

75. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.). BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 13-4
"Satellite measurements at high altitudes are very inadequate, and 'completely compromise model predictions.' For example computer models point to temperature variations in different parts of Earth's gaseous envelope (such as cooling in the uppermost parts, and warming areas below this). with the greatest effect expected in the stratosphere. Scientists from the Centre Nationale de Research Scientifique in Paris used a laser beam to point straight upwards into the upper atmosphere from an observatory. Reflections bounced from the French beam off gas particles enabled the density and temperature of the atmosphere to be measured up to 62 miles above the ground. Yet the laser results were surprising The mesosphere. about 40 miles above the Earth, has cooled by 5C since 1979. about twice as fast as most computer models have predicted."

76. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.). BEYOND THE WARMING, 96. 110.
"The acid test of any model is how well it can mimic reality. The present meteorological environment has to be related meaningfully to the past environment. This is an exceptionally tall order. Even the known industrial emission history of the past 200 years is not always digested by computers, and most GCMs cannot properly take account of the vital role that vegetation plays in climate modeling."

77. Nick Johnstone (Jr. Rsrch. Officer. Dept. Applied Eco.. U. Cambridge) et al. in GLOBAL WARMING & ENERGY DEMAND: 95, 3.
"Solow's ( 1991 ) review of the scientific evidence o f climate change casts doubt on the reliability of current climate models' prediction of future warming since they are unable to explain the warming that has taken place over the past century. While the average magnitude of such warming is broadly as predicted, the models do not explain its time profile or spatial distribution."

78. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 8.
"A prestigious critic of the greenhouse effect is William Nierenberg, a former director emeritus at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California. He co-authored the report that expressed the dissenting views of the George C. Marshall Institute, and didn't so much criticize the greenhouse message as the climatic exaggerations made by its messengers. He criticized computer models which are based on highly theoretical calculations concerning predicted climatic predicted climatic extremes that gave results 'that are inconsistent with the record of the last 100 years [and show] serious inconsistencies in estimates of recent global temperature changes."'

79. INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, May, 95, 363. Several hurdles stand in the way of making clear-cut declarations about climate change. Hasselmann notes that the fingerprinting study relies on estimates of natural variability taken from a computer model. I f these calculations are incorrect, then the German group may have underestimated the chance that Earth itself caused the observed pattern. Moreover. the model estimates of natural variability don't include volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations, two features that can alter climate and skew the detection tests."

80. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 5-6.
"In addition to the above uncertainties encountered in the modeling of the impacts of man-made greenhouse gases, a number of additional unknowns need to be taken into account in modeling, including the indirect effect on global warming of other pollutants, as well as the relative effectiveness of the various greenhouse gases in trapping heat. feedback mechanisms, and sinks."

81. Karl Turekian (Prof. Geophysics. Yale U.) in GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE. 96. 135.
"Aerosols, which are tiny sulfuric acid droplets found either in the stratosphere. from explosive volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo or Krakatoa, or in the troposphere from fossil fuel-derived sulfur dioxide emissions converting to sulfuric acid, reflect incoming sunlight and thereby decrease the radiant flux reaching the ground. Clouds and aerosols are poorly handled in most GCMs, therefore weakening their predictive capabilities."

82. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 84.
"Current computer climate models are incapable of coupling the oceans and atmosphere; misrepresent the role of sea ice, snow caps, localized storms, and biological systems; and fail to account accurately for the effects of clouds."

83. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLAN ET, 95, 89.
"Other widely acknowledged problems in the models are related to the representation and treatment or' sea ice, snow cover, localized storms, and biological systems. We have so far totally neglected the fact that other nongreenhouse gases are being added to the atmosphere that can have strong local and regional cooling effects. Sulfur dioxide emissions have increased at the global scale, and sulfur dioxide is known to have a cooling effect via the production of aerosols that reflect incoming sunlight, brighten clouds, and extend the lifetime of existing clouds. Simply doubling CO2 in a model to represent future conditions is an interesting and valuable academic exercise, but in order to simulate the future realistically, changes in other cases, such as sulfur dioxide, must be considered in the modeling experiments."

84. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 53.
"Out of the above simulations of climate for the future, resulting primarily from current versions of models that indicate that global surface air temperatures will rise by 1.5 to 4.5C when the CO2 concentration is doubled in the atmosphere, have come an array of scenarios, most of them seemingly designed to frighten the public. The effects of the clouds, and the way that models treat them, of oceans, the sequestering of atmospheric CO2 by plants, losses from the soil, volcanoes, and the direct effects of rising levels of CO2 on plant photosynthesis, dry matter accumulation, and water use efficiency are not factored into such projections."

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85. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 54.
"They are deficient in that they do not adequately incorporate the effects of clouds, which are expected to increase if there is a warming. As already indicated, clouds may have both negative and positive impacts on temperature. The negative effect comes from reflecting sunlight into space. The trapping of heat from below increases the temperature (Abelson, 1990). The water vapor content in the atmosphere, which is highly variable with time and season, is the atmosphere's most abundant greenhouse gas. A small increase in the earth's albedo related to increased cloudiness expected with global warming would produce a net cooling 5 to 10 times greater than the potential contribution for warming from all greenhouse gas increases (Strommen, 1992)."

86. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 89.
"Clouds play a critical role in maintaining the energy balance of the earth, and cloud representations are particularly questionable in the models. If the greenhouse enhancement acts to produce an increase in high clouds, the feedback could be positive and the warming accentuated. But if the greenhouse effect yields an increase in low clouds. the feedback could be negative, and the cloud increases could counter and even cancel the greenhouse warming. These and many other complexities regarding the clouds are not adequately handled in the models."

87. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand.. London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 5.
"For instance, current GCMs inadequately depict crucial factors such as cloud cover. In addition, only a limited number of GCM simulations are available at present and this results in the inability to adequately determine a more specific value within the temperature range or even to eliminate temperature changes of less than I degree or more than 5C.''

88. Peter Guerrero (Dir., Envir. Protection, GAO) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16. 95, 10-1 I.
"Although today's general circulation models include many of the most important feedback mechanisms (e.g., water vapor and clouds) they do not yet adequately represent the interactions of these mechanisms with greenhouse gases. Such interactions can amplify, dampen, or stabilize the warming produced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases."

89. CONSUMER REPORTS, Sept., 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/2/97), 38.
"The models are wrong. Global climate can't be studied in labs. so scientists have relied on powerful computer simulations to sort out what's happening with global warming. Critics such as Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a climate modeler and IPCC contributing author, argue that even the best models don't adequately account for water vapor."

90. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps lnst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST, Nov. 16. 95, 118.
"Another key weakness of the models, apparent even a decade go. is their inability to capture adequately the interactions between water and solar radiation."

91. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Can &, London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 7.
"A fourth variable in the modeling equation is the presence of 'sinks' such as oceans or forests which aid in the removal from the atmosphere of the greenhouse gases through natural simulation, another factor not well understood at this time."

92. William Stevens (Staff) in NY TIMES, June 18.96 {Online, Nexis. 4/1/97), CI.
"The computer models do not reflect the climate's natural variability very well--a key shortcoming in trying to gauge the human effect on climate, one that is readily conceded by the modelers."

93. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly. v), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 282-3.
"In Chaos: The Making of a New Science, James Gleick detailed the 'chaotic' or nonpredictable Interactions in the atmosphere now believed by some researchers to render long-range weather forecasting essentially impossible, even positing a hypothetical computer with unlimited processing power and information."

109. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 283-4.
"GCMs are vulnerable to the 'garbage in, garbage out,' problem--punching fuzzy numbers into a computer, running them through precise mathematical formulas, then treating the results as if they were precise."

110. Peter Guerrero (Dir.. Envir. Protection. GAO) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 9.
"In general, we found that general circulation models are better now than they were a decade ago at predicting future climate changes. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the models' estimates is still limited. Specifically, we reported that: For general circulation models, as for other computer models, the quality of the output depends upon the quality of the input-the models are only as good as the data and scientists' understanding of how the climate system works."

I 1 I. Peter Guerrero (Dir., Envir. Protection. GAO) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 10.
"Some climate processes are not included or fully incorporated, even in the core advanced coupled models. And for some of the more important climate processes and interactions that are included in models, their representation is less than adequate primarily because scientists do not fully understand the climate system."

112. Wm. Stevens (Staff) in NYT, June 18, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), C I.
"Bunk, says Dr. Lindzen. He says the conclusions are based on computerized models of the climate system so flawed as to be meaningless. Everyone recognizes that the models are imperfect, but Dr. Lindzen goes much farther. '! do not accept the model results as evidence,' he says. because trusting them 'is like trusting a ouija board."'

113. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 113.
"Sadly, we must conclude that none of the climate models are reassuring. Stephen Schneider of the NCAR has even gone so far as to suggest that perhaps all the combined errors in climate forecasting might cancel each other out. He said it is likely that the models were off by a factor of three, which would not negate altogether a marked temperature increase. Some would argue, however, that such a bias would totally invalidate the computer models."

114. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 89.
"The same scientists who work on these models. however, are among the first to point out that the models are far from perfect representations of reality and probably are not advanced enough for direct use in policy implementation. Major weaknesses remain in the models; in particular, the role of the ocean \in absorbing CO2 and storing and transporting heat is not adequately included. Coupling the best ocean models to the best climate models is very tricky business computationally, but a necessary step in building more reliable forecast tools."

115. Dale Heydlauff(Rep., Am. Electric Power) in HSE HRGS: COMM. ON COMMERCE, Mar. 21,95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 1.
"The dire predictions of elevated temperatures, rising sea levels. agricultural dislocation, etc. that are made by some are primarily based on certain general circulation computer models (GCMS) which were not developed for policy setting purposes. These models, which tend to be crude because they do not fully incorporate the role of clouds. oceans, polar ice caps, solar activity and a host of other physical processes, are not validated, and should not be the cornerstone for setting national and international policy that may adversely affect the world economy."

116. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 12.
"Most critically, there is still no solid scientific consensus regarding the presence of global warming effects, much less the scale of possible consequences. Global warming studies are liberally shot through with 'may exist' and 'could exist' but are distinctly short on 'has been convincingly
demonstrated to exist.' Thus, any attempt to quantify it ~n be considered speculative at best,"

117. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENV1R. POLITI'S & POLICY, 95, 69-70,
"Since definitive evidence about when a global warming might begin ~d how great it might b~ is unlikely to appear for decades, if at all, proponents of reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions have a firm public nor a scientific consensus to add political weight to their advocacy."

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118. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen., lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SC1. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 58.
"Up to this point, I've not elucidated any major faux pas in the IPCC report. Believe me, though, they made them: two wing-dingers, wowies, holy cows, you-got-to-be-kidding, and you-clearly-were-absent-when-they-passed-out-the-brains. The main advisory panel of the IPCC endorsed the conclusion that 'the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.' This misguided judgment created bitter arguments during a three-day meeting in Madrid in fall 1995, when 'experts' from more than one country emphasized the 'uncertain' nature of recent evidence pointing to human effects on climate. The result of this discussion was to be a compromise in the language of the statement, but that did not happen."

119. Editorial Report in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Summer, 96, 2.
"Seitz describes how the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued under United Nations auspices, was deliberately altered in order to remove references to the uncertainties that exist about the man-made contributions to global climate change. The report thus pretends to represent the findings of a group of scientists but, in fact, creates an aura of consensus by misrepresenting what the scientists actually had to say."

120. Fred Singer (Staff) in NAT'L. REV., Nov. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/1/97), 62.
"Particularly alarming to Dr. Seitz was the dropping of three passages from the report: 'None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to...increases in greenhouse gases.' 'No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change observed to date to anthropogenic manmade causes.' 'Any claims of positive detection of significant climate changes are likely to remain controversial until uncertainties in the total natural variability of the climate system are reduced.' Clearly, these statements cast serious doubt on the IPCC conclusion, which might explain why they were eliminated."

121. Editorial Report in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Summer. 96, 2.
"The report. however, 'is not what it appears to be.' according to Seitz. It 'is not the version that was approved by the contributing scientists listed on the title page,' because the document was rewritten after the scientists signing it, had signed what they believed was the final draft. 'In my more than 60 years as a member of the American scientific community. including service as president of both the National Academy of Sciences and the American Physical Society,' writes Seitz, '1 have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report."'

122. Editorial Report in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Summer, 96, 2.
"In other words, statements that questioned the basis of the global warming scare were removed after the final draft was signed by the scientists! This is not an instance of an isolated abuse of power by a quasi-governmental authority. The fraud goes to the bean of the scientific establishment itself."

123. Editorial Report in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH.. Summer, 96. 2.
"Of the significant changes made to the document after it left the hands of the contributing scientists, Seitz says: 'nearly all [the changes] worked to remove hints of the skepticism with which many scientists regard claims that human activities are having a major impact on climate in general, and global warming in particular."'

124. IPCC WGZ Summary for Policymakers References Report in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95,614.
"In the final analysis, the selection of material to present to governments in the Summaries is a highly subjective and political process, and not a scientific process. The few scientists or experts present at the plenary meetings may help the policymakers avoid making statements that are not technically accurate, but the final substance and tone of these reports tends to involve policy and political judgments, and not scientific judgments."

125. Fred Singer (Staff) in NAT'L. REV., Nov. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 62.
"The tendency of promoters of the global-warming hypothesis to equate any criticism of the IPCC officials and of the report with an attack on science itself is beginning to create serious splits within the scientific community. In 1992 more than four thousand scientists signed the strongly worded Heidelberg Appeal to urge statesmen to go slow on climate-change policies that lack a proper scientific basis. More recently, nearly a hundred climate scientists have refuted the IPCC conclusions in the Leipzig Declaration, which grew out of a conference held in November 1995. The Declaration strongly challenges the notion that a scientific consensus' predicts climate catastrophes, and condemns the 1992 Treaty as unrealistic and fraught with economic danger."

126. PLATI"S OILGRAM NEWS, Feb. 18, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 3.
"He said the economists' statement that scientific consensus exists regarding human impacts on global climate, 'is not the case.' The GCC is concerned 'that some may misuse this petition to advance policies that are not in the best interests of our economy or environment,' O'Keefe said."

127. Henry Lindon (Staff), JRNL. OF COMMERCE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), 6A.
"The 'Economists' Statement' is based on a questionable premise namely, that there is a consensus that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.' This assertion, made not by the majority of practicing Climatologists, but by the political apparatus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, has stimulated vigorous dissent because it conflicts with observational evidence most notably the absence of any increase in average temperatures since January 1979, as determined by highly reliable and unbiased NASA satellite measurements."

128. ENVIR. POLICY & LAW, June, 96. 175.
"The WEC, which represents the energy industries of more than 100 States, said in a report issued in April, that the IPCC's recommendations 'are unrealistic and influenced by academics seeking to attract funding for their work."'

129. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.). BEYOND THE WARMING, 96. 4.
"Lindzen suggested this was because pressure had been put on the IPCC scientists to come up with a doom-laden thesis, even to the extent of biasing a report that was probably, in its original form, more balanced and evaluative."

130. INTER PRESS SERVICE, Sept. 24, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), I.
"However, COP2 in fact did just the opposite. using a recent report as 'evidence that there is a scientific consensus that global warming exists, and is largely caused by the burning of fossil fuels, when there is in that no such consensus.' This, said Balabanoff, 'constitutes a clear misrepresentation of the state of the global warming debate."'

131. Editorial Report in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Summer. 96, 3.
"The leading advocates of global warming have rallied to defend the IPCC report and its conclusion that man is adversely affecting global climate. One such group gave a press breakfast in Washington, DC, May 24. These global warming scientists were led by Dr. George Woodwell, the man who was exposed in the 1972 Environmental Protection Agency hearings on DDT, making the data fit his anti-pesticide ideology. (Woodwell published an article in Science magazine presenting high levels of residual DDT in marsh land, but he didn't bother to inform readers that he measured the pesticide at the site where the DDT spray truck was washed down.) The press breakfast was hastily put together by Fenton Communications as damage control. Interestingly, Fenton Communications is the same outfit that concocted the infamous Alar Scare in 1989."

132. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. See. Gen., lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 55-6.
"IPCC's 1995 Modifications: Yes, CO2 would continue to increase in response to the burning of fossil fuels, the report said. Interestingly, there was no mention of the data and results from the research at the University of Oslo, nor of the information regarding the introduction of CO2 from the oceans."

44

133. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 6.
"One IPCC chapter goes to considerable lengths to disguise the- importance of water vapour feedbacks in the scenario. The I PCC report says that CO2 accounts for 25 percent of the upper atmosphere warming, while water vapour and clouds account for some 65 percent. Lindszen puts the former figure much lower, and elevates water vapour to 97 percent, especially the small proportion that is above six kilometers, where greenhouse gases are much thinner.'

134. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen., lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter. 96-97, 58.
"Then came the boldly false statement, of greater interest to me and other oceanographers than to others. The IPCC wrote: It is clear that the oceans are warming significantly in response to the global warming of the atmosphere. Furthermore, this matches the evidence that coral reefs are dying. I've already addressed the non-warming ocean to some extent, but let me add some additional documentation. At meetings of the American Geophysical Union in 1992 (Hong Kong), 1993 (San Francisco), 1994 and 1995 (San Francisco), Warren B. White of Scripps, and six colleagues, presented a series of papers on the 'Global lnterannual/lnterdecadal Variations in the Upper Ocean Thermal Structure.' They had made careful. l examinations and analysis of more than 5,200,000 temperature-depth measurements between 30S and 60n in the oceans/from 1979 to 1994. Both sea-surface temperatures and the upper ocean to a depth of 400 meters exhibited a cooling trend throughout the 1980s of about 0. IC./followed by a similar warming through 1994."

135. THE DOMINION (WELLINGTON), Aug. 12, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 14.
"The IPCC scientific reports are all finalized by politicians. The best example of this is the way environmental activists led by Greenpeace convinced the Small Island Nations Group that disastrous sea level rises were imminent. The group then got the support of the powerful Group of 77, now consisting of more than 100 developing countries, to have the final IPCC report strengthened in favor of a more positive global-warming decision. This was in spite of some of the best scientific groups in the world not finding any link between sea-level rise and polar ice melting, under global-warming conditions that may arise from greenhouse gas emissions."

136. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gem, Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21 ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH.. Winter. 96-97, 55.
'`The long-awaited report from the IPCC, that all of us knew would be greatly revised from that of 1990, was a 'comedy of errors.' In April. three months be/fore the report was scheduled to be released, members of the IPCC, and observers appointed by various nations, met in Maastricht the Netherlands, to preview and comment on the draft report prepared by the 'working staff of the IPCC. (Of course the IPCC has a staff Do you really think the 'Great and Good' at the top do all their own research, reading delving, analyzing, interpreting, and writing?) The members were to have the draft some weeks be/bin the meeting, and then break up into working groups to address the many chapters and items in the report. Not only did none of the members receive the draft document ahead of time. but no copies were ready for them when they arrived in Maastricht. Nevertheless, during the confusion of the first few days, the staff whoever they are--issued a press report to the world's assembled press, titled 'Conclusions reached by the IPCC's studies over the preceding three years.' As you might expect, this release was seen by none of the milling, assembled members of the Panel."

137. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen., Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SC1. & TECH.. Winter. 96-97, 55.
"In the popular media, it was 'no contest'! The 'advocates' were the clear winners. In peer-reviewed scientific literature, however, the results of fine research were 'blowing the advocates out of the saddle.' Since 1992, 1 have personally perused more than 2,800 papers that contradict 'global warming. "'

138. Fred Singer (Staff) in NAT'L. REV., Nov. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/1/97), 62.
"The real reason for the text changes may have been to back up the Summary's rather feeble conclusion about a possible human influence on climate. There is precious little in the Summary that would lead one to believe that global warming is happening now or that predictions of future warming can be trusted."



 

THE CASE AGAINST INCREASING RENEWABLE ENERGY USE IN THE UNITED STATES
Negative Evidence

125. Fred Singer (Staff) in NAT'L. REV., Nov. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 62.
"The tendency of promoters of the global-warming hypothesis to equate any criticism of the IPCC officials and of the report with an attack on science itself is beginning to create serious splits within the scientific community. In 1992 more than four thousand scientists signed the strongly worded Heidelberg Appeal to urge statesmen to go slow on climate-change policies that lack a proper scientific basis. More recently, nearly a hundred climate scientists have refuted the IPCC conclusions in the Leipzig Declaration, which grew out of a conference held in November 1995. The Declaration strongly challenges the notion that a scientific consensus' predicts climate catastrophes, and condemns the 1992 Treaty as unrealistic and fraught with economic danger."

126. PLATF'S OILGRAM NEWS, Feb. 18, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 3.
"He said the economists' statement that scientific consensus exists regarding human impacts on global climate, 'is not the case.' The GCC is concerned 'that some may misuse this petition to advance policies that are not in the best interests of our economy or environment,' O'Keefe said."

127. Henry Lindon (Staff), JRNL. OF COMMERCE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), 6A.
"The 'Economists' Statement' is based on a questionable premise namely, that there is a consensus that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.' This assertion, made not by the majority of practicing Climatologists, but by the political apparatus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, has stimulated vigorous dissent because it conflicts with observational evidence most notably the absence of any increase in average temperatures since January 1979, as determined by highly reliable and unbiased NASA satellite measurements."

128. ENVIR. POLICY & LAW, June, 96. 175.
"The WEC, which represents the energy industries of more than 100 States, said in a report issued in April, that the IPCC's recommendations 'are unrealistic and influenced by academics seeking to attract funding for their work."'

129. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96. 4.
"Lindzen suggested this was because pressure had been put on the IPCC scientists to come up with a doom-laden thesis, even to the extent of biasing a report that was probably, in its original form, more balanced and evaluative."

130. INTER PRESS SERVICE, Sept. 24, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), I.
"However, COP2 in fact did just the opposite, using a recent report as 'evidence that there is a scientific consensus that global warming exists, and is largely caused by the burning of fossil fuels, when there is in that no such consensus.' This, said Balabanoff, 'constitutes a clear misrepresentation of the state of the global warming debate."'

131. Editorial Report in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Summer, 96, 3.
"The leading advocates of global warming have rallied to defend the IPCC report and its conclusion that man is adversely affecting global climate. One such group gave a press breakfast in Washington, DC, May 24. These global warming scientists were led by Dr. George Woodwell, the man who was exposed in the 1972 Environmental Protection Agency hearings on DDT, making the data fit his anti-pesticide ideology. (Woodwell published an article in Science magazine presenting high levels of residual DDT in marsh land, but he didn't bother to inform readers that he measured the pesticide at the site where the DDT spray truck was washed down.) The press breakfast was hastily put together by Fenton Communications as damage control. Interestingly, Fenton Communications is the same outfit that concocted the infamous Alar Scare in 1989."

132. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gem, lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SC1. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 55-6.
"IPCC's 1995 Modifications: Yes, CO2 would continue to increase in response to the burning of fossil fuels, the report said. lnterestingly, there was no mention of the data and results from the research at the University of Oslo, nor of the information regarding the introduction of CO2 from the oceans."

44

133. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 6.
"One IPCC chapter goes to considerable lengths to disguise the- importance of water vapour feedbacks in the scenario. The I PCC report says that CO2 accounts for 25 percent of the upper atmosphere warming, while water vapour and clouds account for some 65 percent. Lindszen puts the former figure much lower, and elevates water vapour to 97 percent, especially the small proportion that is above six kilometers, where greenhouse gases are much thinner."

134. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen., lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 58.
"Then came the boldly false statement, of greater interest to me and other oceanographers than to others. The IPCC wrote: It is clear that the oceans are warming significantly in response to the global warming of the atmosphere. Furthermore, this matches the evidence that coral reefs are dying. I've already addressed the non-warming ocean to some extent, but let me add some additional documentation. At meetings of the American Geophysical Union in 1992 (Hong Kong), 1993 (San Francisco), 1994 and 1995 (San Francisco), Warren B. White of Scripps, and six colleagues, presented a series of papers on the 'Global lnterannual/lnterdecadal Variations in the Upper Ocean Thermal Structure.' They had made careful examinations and analysis of more than 5,200,000 temperature-depth measurements between 30% and 60n in the oceans from 1979 to 1994. Both sea-surface temperatures and the upper ocean to a depth of 400 meters exhibited a cooling trend throughout the 1980s of about 0. IC, followed by a similar warming through 1994."

135. THE DOMINION (WELLINGTON), Aug. 12, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 14.
"The IPCC scientific reports are all finalized by politicians. The best example of this is the way environmental activists led by Greenpeace convinced the Small Island Nations Group that disastrous sea level rises were imminent. The group then got the support of the powerful Group of 77, now consisting of more than 100 developing countries, to have the final IPCC report strengthened in favor of a more positive global-warming decision. This was in spite of some of the best scientific groups in the world not finding any link between sea-level rise and polar ice melting, under global-warming conditions that may arise from greenhouse gas emissions."

136. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gem, Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21 ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 55.
'`The long-awaited report from the IPCC, that all of us knew would be greatly revised from that of 1990, was a 'comedy of errors.' In April, three months before the report was scheduled to be released, members of the IPCC, and observers appointed by various nations, met in Maastricht the Netherlands, to preview and comment on the draft report prepared by the 'working staff' of the IPCC. (Of course the IPCC has a staff Do you really think the 'Great and Good' at the top do all their own research, reading delving analyzing, interpreting, and writing?) The members were to have the draft some weeks before the meeting, and then break up into working groups to address the many chapters and items in the report. Not only did none of the members receive the draft document ahead of time, but no copies were ready for them when they arrived in Maastricht. Nevertheless, during the confusion of the first few days, the staff whoever they are--issued a press report to the world's assembled press, titled 'Conclusions reached by the IPCC's studies over the preceding three years.' As you might expect, this release was seen by none of the milling, assembled members of the Panel."

137. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen., Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SC1. & TECH., Winter. 96-97, 55.
"In the popular media, it was 'no contest'! The 'advocates' were the clear winners. In peer-reviewed scientific literature, however, the results of fine research were 'blowing the advocates out of the saddle.' Since 1992, 1 have personally perused more than 2,800 papers that contradict 'global warming."'

138. Fred Singer (Staff) in NAT'L. REV., Nov. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/1/97), 62.
"The real reason for the text changes may have been to back up the Summary's rather feeble conclusion about a possible human influence on climate. There is precious little in the Summary that would lead one to believe that global warming is happening now or that predictions of future warming can be trusted."

139. Deroy Murdock (staff TAMPA TRIB., (Online, Nexis, 3/I 5/97), 6.
"As the Industrial Revolution that so menaced Karl Marx swept Europe in the latter 190, century, temperatures plunged dramatically. The theory that human action warms the Earth suggests that trains, foundries and textile mills would have made Europe sizzle. Just the opposite occurred."

140. Thomas Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 10.
"Since its origins, the earth has experienced periods significantly warmer than the modern world--some epochs have been even hotter than the most extreme predictions of global warming--and at times much colder. Today's cool temperatures are well below average for the globe in its more than four-billion-year history. During one of the warmest such eras, the dinosaurs roamed the earth and a rich ecological world flourished."

141. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 8-9.
"Other commentors point only to a postwar drop in temperatures in the western world. Since then the warming has "resumed." Allaby suggests that this cooling dragged down the average to make it plus 0.5C, implying it could otherwise have been higher. This. surely, is perverse logic, since the argument (based on statistical averages) could easily be reversed and the postwar argument of a general cooling spoiled because of several warm years intervening. Jim Angell, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), in America found a net warming of 0.24C only in the past 30 years, a figure that can be regarded as virtually meaningless."

142. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 8.
"Michael Allaby, an ecologist who was closely associated with the Limits to Growth publication of 1972, says there was a cooling from 1940 until about 1970, "most strongly marked in the Arctic."'

143. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 23.
"The difficulty in calculating the nature and speed of the CO2 recycling process is in the paucity of accurate historical measurements. There is no direct knowledge of the concentrations dating from more than 100 years ago, and even 20~" century figures are fraught with hazards. Indeed it could be argued that, judged on the time-scale of the Earth. current levels are actually low."

144. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 12.
"There are other published sources showing that meteorological records of rising temperatures in the past are not as reliable a guide as they first appear. James EIsner of Florida State University and Anastasios Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin described in 1991 a new analysis of three main data sets of northern hemispheric warming compiled during the 1980s by Soviet and US researchers. But projected nonlinear Wends were not the same for the three data sets. According to Tsonis. 'The differences in the observed surface temperatures are the result of different populations rather than different samples from the same population.' This means that none of the data sets can be used as a reliable guide as to how temperatures are likely to rise in the future until the reasons for the differences are understood .'

145. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 11-2.
"Yet the global data still looks pretty paltry. After including new recording station information, and after eliminating urban biases, Mick Jones of the CRU 'looked in detail at the 20-year period from 1967-86...and found a total warming of 0.31C in the northern hemisphere and 0.23C in the southern hemisphere', the latter figure being so low, and fraught with the hazards of marginal errors, as to lessen the impact of the 'consistent southern hemisphere warming' message."'

146. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. See. Gen., Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 58-9.
"There is no warming trend in the oceans, and has not been in the past 50 years. There are places in the ocean that get warmer than other locations for periods of time up to decades, but those waters then cool as other ocean areas warm."

147. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen., lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 57.
"These data, taken from ships' logs over 130 years, indicate no change in sea surface temperatures."

45

148. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,280.
"Studies of global ocean surface temperatures performed by the Meteorological Office of the United Kingdom found a slight warming during the 1980s. Studies of sea-surface temperatures performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. found a slight cooling during the 1980s. No ocean temperature data is considered conclusive."

149. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. See. Gen., lnt'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 56, 8.
"Figure 3 is an extremely interesting graph of air temperature and sea surface temperatures from 1856 to 1987. This is from a joint study by people at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the British Meteorological Office, taking the data from the logs of thousands of ships that sailed the world" oceans and seas in the 130 years in question. The researchers went to the effort to learn how water temperatures might be affected by winds blowing around the wooden and canvas buckets used to collect the water sample, and the influence of the ship on air temperatures, modifying the numbers by these results."

150. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95. 280.
"Lara and Villalba found evidence of prolonged cold from 1490 to about 1700, roughly corresponding with the Little Ice Age in Europe. But in the tree rings they detected 'no evidence of a warming trend during the last decades of this century that could be attributed to anthropogenic causes. "'

151. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING. 95, 2.
"In fact, the evidence supporting the claim that the earth has grown warmer is shaky; the theory is weak and the models on which the conclusions are based cannot even replicate the current climate."

152. Jerry Mahlman (Sr. Staff. Nat'l. Oceanic & Atmospheric Admin., U.S. Dept. Commerce) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 23.
"The U.S. Global Change Research Program is making excellent progress on these fronts. However, sustained efforts will be required in the years ahead. This is particularly true for measuring climate change. This needs a long-term commitment that is not yet evident. Without a better climate-change measuring system, neither our research nor our predictions can be properly evaluated."

153. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.). SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 41-2.
"All of this is inconclusive. It is not certain that the earth will warm. and even if it did the consequences could not be forecast with any certainty. This, in itself, is a particular example of an important general feature of the interconnections between the natural environment and economic activity?. They are characterized by uncertainty."

154. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 7.
"The mooted rise in temperatures over the past century cannot actually be detected in the US where observations are numerous and accurate. Scientists at the American Weather Bureau have produced a study showing that there is no evidence the US has warmed or chilled significantly over the last century."

155. Jonathan Marshall (Economics Ed.)in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Sept. 18, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), DI.
"Yet, he also pointed out that while global warming is certainly a burning political issue, it is still an elusive science. 'We don't even know how to measure greenhouse gasses,' he said, and scientists aren't certain how fast or to what degree global-climate change is occurring."

156. Frederick Palmer (CEO, Western Fuels Assn.) in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95, 127.
"The threat of catastrophic global warming as a result of carbon dioxide emissions is not based on scientific observation, it is based on flawed computer models."

157. Julian L. Simon (Prof., Bus. Adm., U. MD), THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE 2, 96, 267-8.
"Indeed, many of the same persons who were then warning about global cooling (emphasis in original) are the same Climatologists who am now warning of global warming---especially Stephen Schneider, one of the most prominent of the global warming doomsters. It is interesting to reflect on the judgments that would be made in (say) 1996 of past decisions if the world had followed the advice of the Climatologists only two decades years earlier who then urged the world to take immediate steps to head off the supposed cooling threat."

158. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 76.
"Immediately after an instant ice age was proclaimed in the 1970s,
the Earth warmed. Through the 1980s global temperatures rose. Alarmists dropped their ice age predictions cold, as it were, and began to proclaim global warming. Newspapers ran frightening bar graphs showing the 1980s warmer than the previous decade, not mentioning that the 1980s was being contrasted to an unusually cold decade."

159. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps Inst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16. 95, 114-5.
"The coupled ocean-atmosphere model has given us better insight
into the mechanism of this decay and has greatly reduced its value. For today we can take it as ranging between 50 and 160 years. The actual choice is a complicated one and is an approximation to the true time variation depending on how long is the extent and the shape of the emission curve. At any rate, it is big change from the prior 1000 year value and completely alters the policy picture."

160. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps Inst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST. Nov. 16, 95, 117.
"More recently, with the development of reasonable ocean models coupled to atmospheric climate models, researchers have arrived at greatly reduced estimates of the decay time of atmospheric CO2. Research now suggests that the decay curve is really a sum of exponentials. Current estimates indicate that it takes between 50 and 150 years for anthropogenic CO2 to be absorbed into the oceans (O'Neill et al., 1994)."

161. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps Inst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST. Nov. 16, 95. 120.
"This review began by noting the dramatic reductions in the longevity estimates for excess atmospheric CO2. I believe that this new understanding of the CO2 lifecycle argues for relatively modest reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. It also makes plausible a strategy of waiting for the 'signal' to emerge from the climate 'noise' before taking serious remedial action.
Finally, it also suggests future directions for climate research. which might , illuminate many of the questions raised hem."
162. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer.. Scripps Inst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 122.
"Another question related to this growth of CO2 in the atmosphere is how long does the increase, which is presumed to be of anthropogenic origin, persist? As of 1983, the literature (not the NAS report) cited long lifetimes of the order of one thousand years, derived from various lines of reasoning, among them being tritium isotope variation with depth but undoubtedly influenced by the measured C ages of the very bottom ocean waters. Since then, with the advent of coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. the duration has dropped to between fifty and two hundred years."

163. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 534.
"The 1980s appear to be the warmest decade on record, with 1988, 1987, and 1981 the warmest years in that order. Although the inaccuracies of such statements and conclusions have been well documented (Bailing, 1992, 1993; Strommen, 1992), the fallacy still exists. It has given way to widespread glamorized press releases, the publication of best sellers, an advocacy for policy decisions involving billions of dollars to restrict the
burning of fossil fuels. and ammunition for many press release. some ;n prestigious scientific journals. and the issuing of annual reports by Worldwatch, World Resources Institute, and other earth organizations detailing the apocalyptic path we are following. Embellishments of Such reports. the clever use of caveats by Schneider (1989) and Others. told the responsiveness of the press are discussed by Friedly (1993). Frightening the public does get support for more research." [Emphasis in original]

46

164. Thomas Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 10.
"Studies of climate history show that sharp changes in temperatures over brief periods of time have occurred frequently without setting into motion any disastrous feedback systems that would lead either to a runaway heating that would cook the earth or to a freezing that would eliminate all life. In addition, carbon dioxide levels have varied greatly."

165. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 11.
"Carbon dioxide concentrations may have been up to sixteen times higher about sixty million years ago without producing runaway greenhouse effects."

166. Mark Jaffe (Staff, Knight-Ridder News Service) in THE RECORD, Nov. 13.95 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), H4.
"The UN science group, known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, states that the most likely warming will be 6 degrees by the end of the next century. The EPA study estimates that the average temperature will rise even less, 1.8 degrees F by 2050 and 3.6 degrees F by 2100. 'The more apocalyptic predictions have disappeared.' said Robert Bailing, director of Arizona State University's climatology office."

167. Jonathan Marshall (Staff) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Jan. 27, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97}, El.
"The best climate models now show a third less warming than more simplistic ones forecast in 1990."

168. Patrick Michaels (Prof., Envir. Sci., U. VA) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST. Nov. 16. 95.29.
"The most important development in the last two years is that it is now acknowledged that the community that argued for the lower numbers appears more likely to be correct."

169. Christopher Douglas (Fellow, Ctr. Study Am. Business. WA U.-St. Louis) in INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAII,Y. Dec. I% 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/I/97), A2.
"The U .N . Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's first global warming report, in 1990. estimated that world temperatures would rise in a range of 3.5 to 8 degrees Celsius by 2050. The best estimate of the rise was around 6 degrees. But in its 1995 report, the IPCC scaled back the temperature numbers and added 50 more years. It now predicts a warming trend of from 1.8 to 6.3 degrees Celsius by2100, with a best guess of 2 degrees ."

170. INSIDE ENERGY/WITH FED. LANDS, Oct. 30, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 7.
 'Overall, the report projected that the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases would lead to an increase in global mean surface temperature of about I degree to 3.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, and an associated increase in sea level of about 15 centimeters to 95 cm. The latest estimated impacts are lower than previous IPCC estimates because the panel took into account the cooling effect of aerosols."

171. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand.. London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 7.
"For instance, the IPCC had predicted in its 1990 report that average global temperatures would rise by 0.3C per decade, but has since revised that figure in its Supplementary Report of 1992. It is now 'expected to be less.' since the GCMs did not include all possible factors. In addition, the 1992 IPCC Report noted that confidence in the regional changes simulated by computer models remained low."

172. Patrick Michaels (Prof., Envir. Sci., U. VA) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16. 95, 28.
"New calculations support the view of the scientists who predicted that global warming would be relatively modest. Older calculations that based the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change were known to be greatly overestimating warming at the time the Convention was ratified."
173, Patrick Michaels (Prof., Envir. gel., U, VA) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBI-IC TRUS~I', Nov. 16, 95, 29,
"'The 1995 'Second Scientific Assessment' of the U.N. Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now states that the climate models that supported the 1992 Supplementary Report were in fact predicting too much warming-"

174. Mark A. Cane (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, NY) et al., SCIENCE, Feb. 14, 97, 957.
"There is a potential for amplification by positive feedbacks within the climate system. Understanding of these mechanisms is incomplete, and the strength of the amplification is uncertain, as evidenced by the fact that when loaded with twice the modern concentration of atmospheric CO2. state-of-the-art climate models give mean global changes varying from 1.5 to 4.5.''

175. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 62.
"There is still no scientific consensus: perhaps thick clouds cool the atmosphere, while thin, high clouds act as greenhouse gases. It could be, aid Tselioudis in January 1994, that the higher the temperature the more cloud reflectivity drops. But how much so depended on seasons, latitude and whether the clouds were over the land or sea. On the other hand Tim Palmer of the European Centre said that negative feedbacks associated with the day-to-day weather may offset positive climatic feedbacks, making the climate more self-regulatory than we think."

176. Peter Chaston (Meteorologist, Nat'l. Weather Serv.), TERROR FROM THE SKIES, 95, 11.
"By changing the initial surface temperature conditions of the earth through a certain range, the climate would eventually establish a new equilibrium which is not much different from what existed originally. The atmospheric processes that transport energy around the atmosphere did change, but the overall climate settled back to close what we now have. They found that as long as the earth was warmed by no more than 16 Celsius degrees (29 Fahrenheit degrees), or cooled by no more than 18 Celsius (32 Fahrenheit) degrees, the climate would return to its current temperatures."

177. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 7.
"Richard Lindzen also told a meeting of the Royal Meteorological Society in London in December 1992 that global temperatures are very unresponsive to changes in overall radiation from whatever source. Most feedbacks, such as the lessening of albedo as the ice packs shrink and the increasing cloud cover as surface heat builds up, and the microbiological reaction to changes in atmospheric temperature and chemistry, are negative, i.e., self-adjusting." [Emphasis in original]

178. Mark A. Cane (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, NY) et al., SCIENCE, Feb. 14, 97, 957.
"Here we point out a pattern in the changes of sea surface temperature (SST) over the course of the 20th century--an increase in the zonal gradient across the equatorial Pacific--that has been missed in simulations performed with comprehensive climate models [general circulation models (GCMs)]. Recent theoretical studies have predicted this pattern as a response to exogenous heating of the tropical atmosphere. If the theory is correct, it would provide evidence that the coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics are delaying, and possibly regulating, global warming."

179. Robert White (Fmr. Chief, U.S. Weather Bureau) in ISSUES IN SCI. & TECH., Fall, 96, 35.
"Unlike carbon dioxide, aerosols are not evenly distributed throughout the global atmosphere but are concentrated over industrial areas and deserts. As particles, however, they act in an opposite manner from greenhouse gases. They tend to cool the atmosphere by reflecting sunlight into space. When the effects aerosols are introduced into the mathematical models, as they have been in those considered in the 1996 report, they partially counteract the warming effects of greenhouse gases and thus result in predicted rates of warming that are lower and slower than those of previous mathematical models."

180. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 46-7.
"The cooling could be yet further exacerbated when particulate matter becomes good condensation nuclei and helps create water droplets that make up clouds. The more aerosols the smaller and brighter the droplets, and the more reflective they are the more they perpetuate a cooling."

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181. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 46.
"The discovery of the iniquitous effects of sulfur have arisen partly from concern about acid rain in the 1980s. Out of this problem came better techniques for measuring sulfate emissions and better computer models (especially Swedish) of wind patterns and atmospheric chemical mixing. Charlson invented an optical scattering device called a nephelometer, based on the electric eye principle. Fed into models, it found that a watt of solar energy per square meter was prevented from reaching the surface---enough to cool the Earth substantially."

182. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 46.
"The sulfur atoms seems to be the main culprit. Research by Mai Pham and Guy Brasseur, also from NCAR, conclude that a global sulphate cooling is in the immediate offing. An international study of daily temperatures from China and in Russia and America shows that night/day temperatures are evening out because of sulphate cooling."

183. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 45.
"One of the most remarkable scientific U-turns in recent years is seen in the way that the 'pollutant-as-cooler' argument has gained ground. Atmospheric chemists are now saying that those pollutants that manage to drift ever higher into the upper stratosphere can remain there for up to five years. being warmed by the sun but at the same time prevent the sun's rays from penetrating fully to the ground."

184. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand, London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 6.
"Rising sulphur emissions from industry and volcanic eruptions might have an ephemeral cooling effect and temporarily mask any global warming."

185. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 48.
"The sulphate cooling theory is now almost an orthodoxy. A 3-month computer simulation by the Met Office in Bracknell, Berkshire, found that some 50 percent of the warming earlier predicted had vanished."

186. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 287-8.
"Through the 1980s many researchers assumed that sulfur dioxide, the chief cause of acid rain, was a minor greenhouse gas. But in the late 1980s Thomas Wigley of the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom and Robert Charlson of the University of Washington proved that sulfur pollutants instead have a cooling effect."

187. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 47.
"Nor, as some think. is the sulphate cooling especially localized. A recent Nature article about computer modeling of sulphates suggested that the cooling might be more widespread than thought."

188. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof:, Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 39-40.
"Small increases in the earth's albedo relating to increased cloudiness expected from global arming will produce a net cooling effect far greater than the potential contribution of warming from all greenhouse gas increases including that of CO2. It has been suggested that the world's clouds may have an effect on the earth's energy budget that is up to 10 times greater than would be produced by a doubling of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. A slight change in cloud cover could either negate global warming induced by greenhouse gases or greatly intensify it."

189. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow. Hoover lnst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95. 149-50.
"As a result of more evaporation from the oceans, a warmer climate should intensify cloudiness. More cloud cover will moderate daytime temperatures while acting at night as an insulting blanket to retain heat. The Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change has found exactly this pattern both for the last 40 years, indeed for the whole of the twentieth century."

190. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 61-2.
"In the meantime it is worth bearing in mind the most important self-correcting feedback known to climatic science: cloud creation out of moisture convection. As oceans warm, convection in the atmosphere increases, carrying moist air to the top of the troposphere and producing cumulonimbus clouds. These trap heat, but as convection gathers momentum icy crystals form thin cirrus clouds and deflect and scatter sunlight, preventing it from reaching the sea surface, so a new equilibrium is established."

191. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 62.
"Further, George Tselioudis at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York has studied new satellite data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and Profound that variations in sunlight reflected by low clouds may offset a greenhouse warming."

192. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.). BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 28.
"The general consensus is that five billion tons of carbon exists today as atmospheric CO2. There should still be more. The sinks, whichever they are, seem to be more efficient at absorbing the gas than current theories explain."

193. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 37.
"In conclusion, until scientists have fully worked out all these complicated feedbacks, we may assume that: there is no destruction of the biomass on any sizable scale; and the level of CO2 is subject to self-regulating variables that are independent of the former; and any additional anthropogenic emission of CO2 is not accumulating in the atmosphere, but is being rapidly 'sunk' into Earth's various natural reservoirs."

194. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 23-4.
"In other words carbon dioxide is stored everywhere, even in our bodies, and is being continuously added to and subtracted from on a seasonal, annual and centuries-long and millennia-long cycle. Any increase in one place within a human lifetime would be too small to measure."

195. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 23'
"The carbon in the atmosphere has a very close symbiotic relationship with geophysical or hydrospheric 'sinks.' Probably about 1,500 b tons of carbon actually exist in the ecosphere, which includes the atmosphere. Carbon is either sunk into the Biomass (the Earth's vegetation), or into the soil and rocks (as geochemical sinks, which we could call the geosphere). or into the oceans (the hydrosphere), or into the atmosphere alone, or into all four together."

196. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 70.
"This returns us to the subject of plankton. Powerful oceanic feedbacks have long been recognized, such as the sulphates which are to be found in dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the gas emitted by microscopic ocean-going creatures. DMS is often a favorite of climate and Gala theorists who like to point to its remarkable countervailing properties. Indeed, if there is one organic phenomenon on Earth that could counteract the greenhouse warming alone, it would be phytoplankton. These tiny specks of organic life can create the nuclei of moisture droplets in clouds, which then deflect back solar radiation, and start to cool the surface that was originally beginning to warm."

197. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 61.
"A warm sea, according to their findings, would surely stimulate plankton growth further, and CO2, as we have seen, would be 'consumed' in ever greater quantities."

198. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 115.
"The DMS situation we talked about suggests that when atmospheric temperatures rise, plankton start to thrive in the seas, then take in more CO2 from the air. This tends to lower temperature, so that plankton populations begin to die back and soon an equilibrium limit cycle is reached."

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199. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 60.
"In addition to the phytoplankton the Ocean Flux researchers noted vast numbers of zooplankton consuming the microscopic plants. Hence the plankton bloom continues to expand because the zooplankton also recycle nutrients that the phytoplankton need, thus prolonging the bloom which mops up still more carbon."

200. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 59-60.
"The ocean warms, and stabilizes as the seasons change, strengthening sunlight creates an explosive growth of nutrient consuming phytoplankton. This massive spring bloom, bigger than anyone suspected, soon sinks rapidly to the depths of the oceans. initiating a cycle lasting probably one thousand years or so before they reach anywhere near the surface again."

201. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96. 59.
"It is a geochemical process: plankton take up inorganic carbon from the upper waters of the ocean; some of the carbon sinks to the seabed, and yet more is taken in from the CO2 in the atmosphere, in a cyclical fashion. by other plankton. Sometimes this cycle is referred to as a biological pump. "'

202. Jonathan Groves (Prof., Bio., U. York, UK) in GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 9.
"Photosynthetic absorption of CO2 is also a major contributor to the absorption of CO2 by the oceans. Phytoplankton (small photosynthesizing organisms drifting in the sea) grow particularly in nutrient-rich upwellings, but also at lower density in the open ocean: their photosynthesis draws down CO2 from the atmosphere into the surface layer of the ocean. When they die a proportion of plankton, and organisms further up the food chain. sink into the deeper ocean, delivering their carbon to the long-term repository of the abyss."

203. Richard Houghton (Rsrch. Scientist) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 316-7.
"The world's oceans contain bout 60 times more carbon than either the atmosphere or the world's terrestrial vegetation. Thus, at equilibrium, the ocean might be expected to have absorbed about 60 times more of the released carbon than the atmosphere, or 98% of total emissions."

204. Michael Weber & Judith Cradwohl (Jrnlst., Dir., Envir. Awareness, Smithsonian Inst.), THE WEALTH OF OCEANS, 95, 64.
"Roughly 75 to 80 percent of the carbon on earth--and the yearly exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and oceans is far greater than the exchange between atmosphere and land."

205. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 58-9.
"Some scientists have said that of 'seven gigots' of carbon dioxide, 'some four gigatons were being sunk in the oceans.' One journalist writing for the popular science magazine Focus in August 1994 said perhaps 98 percent of the Earth's carbon dioxide remains 'quietly dissolved in the oceans.' There are, says Peter Brewer, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. Mass., an estimated 1600 billion tons of dissolved organic carbon in the ocean, more than all the carbon stored ;n trees, grass and other plants."

206. Richard Houghton (Rsrch. Scientist) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 321.
"In general. the oceans tend to buffer changes in atmospheric CO2 and thus serve as a negative feedback for any change."

207. Fred Pearse (Staff Reporter.) in NEW SCIENTIST, Feb. 22. 97. 16.
"When the researchers examined temperature records, they found that the waters of the eastern Pacific had indeed cooled this century. Seager says this is linked to a constant upwelling of cold water from the ocean depths. Models suggest that when this cold water reaches the surface of the ocean in initially offsets the effects of heating in the air above."

208. Fred Pearse (Staff Reporter.) in NEW SCIENTIST, Feb. 22, 97, 16.
"To study the effects of global warming on sea temperatures, Richard Seager and his colleagues at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York state modeled changes in wind and currents in the Pacific. They also analyzed temperature records over the past century. Their results suggest that cooling in the eastern Pacific may be slowing down global warming by as much as 22 percent. 'This is not just modeling, this is something that has actually occurred."'

209. Michael Weber & Judith Cradwohl (Jrnlst., Dir., Envir. Awareness, Smithsonian Inst.), THE WEALTH OF OCEANS, 95, 63-4.
"Several qualities of the oceans make them important players in shaping climate. Water itself f has the capacity to store, move, and release heat. The oceans can absorb and buffer carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas."

210. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 53.
"Those who worry overmuch about the greenhouse effect often forget that the oceans govern the climate. The sun sets it in motion, of course. but the oceans regulate it and dominate the climate and ultimately determine its every change of direction, down to the last half a degree Centigrade. and keep it that way--cooler or warmer--for literally hundreds of years."

211. Colin Price (Prof., Agriculture, U. Col. of North Wales) in RESOURCE & ENERGY ECONOMICS 17, 95, 94.
"At current atmospheric temperatures and CO2 concentrations, nearly half the additional CO2 released by mankind is removed by oceanic absorption within a year."

212. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 34.
"So the creation and decomposition of the bogs must explain changes in temperature--they are massive CO2 sinks. Peat is a form of moist. partly decomposed plant material, on its way to becoming coal deposits. Peatlands cover about 5m square kilometers of the Earth. ranging from the tropics up to the frozen tundra of Siberia, going down to a depth of 60 feet in places. holding up to 100 times as much carbon per hectare than tropical rainforests. Cooling encourages the growth of peat bogs. They extract carbon from the atmosphere and store it. so perpetuating the cooling (since warming tends to release CO2 into the air largely through convection). Klinger claims that peatlands could have been an important biological mechanism that could have plunged Earth into and out of ice ages, by changing the amount of CO2 in the air."

213. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96. 33.
"Lee Klinger of the US government's National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. claims that peat bogs are a giant natural store of carbon, holding between 500 and 1,000 billion tons of the element--more than all the world's trees and similar, he says, to the 760 billion tons held in the atmosphere."

214. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 22-3.
"Indeed it has been alleged that some 100 billion tons of carbon have gone missing since the industrial revolution, and that 1.6b tons a year of CO2 simply cannot be accounted for. The search for the missing carbon, rather like the search for the missing mass of the universe, 'is perhaps the most important problem that we have to solve' says Jorge Sarmiento, an ocean modeller at Princeton University."

215. Richard Houghton (Rsrch. Scientist) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVI R., 97, 317.
"Two or three independent lines of geophysical evidence suggest that the unidentified sink is in terrestrial ecosystems."

216. William Wienke (Staff'), WI ST. JRNL., Jan. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 3F.
"It seems that we humans release about 7 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year but at year's end, only about 3 billion tons remain in the air. Some is soaked up in the ocean and the others in plants. But scientists can't account for about a half-billion tons a year. Who cares? Well, Tre~l notes, 'this is very important from a policy viewpoint, because unless you know where the carbon comes from and where it goes, it's hard to know whether or not we can lessen the greenhouse effect by reducing the amount of carbon we put into the air by burning fossil fuels."

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217. Christopher Flavin (Sr. V.P., World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1996, 96, 24.
"In fact, of the 6 billion tons of carbon released from fossil fuel burning each year, only about 3 billion tons remain in the atmosphere. For the past decade, scientists have searched for the 'missing carbon,' and have recently determined that the world's oceans and northern hemisphere forests are each absorbing about 1.5 billion tons of carbon a year."

218. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 1.
"Examine the role that the carbon cycle has played in Earth's geophysical history, and challenge the accepted wisdom that carbon dioxide will inevitably accumulate in the atmosphere because all of Earth's' carbon reservoirs (or 'sinks') are now full to capacity. Indeed, I point out that many scientists are puzzled to note that much of the Earth's stock of carbon has actually 'gone missing."'

219. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,297.
"The evidence for a terrestrial sink for the missing carbon is growing,' says Edward Rastetter, a researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. 'Sink' is the techno-term for whatever absorbs carbon dioxide; the primary 'terrestrial sink' is trees."

220. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,301.
"1 have a hard time following why longer growing seasons. lower energy use and fewer subzero days in North Dakota are the new apocalypse," says Michaels, of the University of Virginia. He argues that up to a global increase of around three degrees Fahrenheit. an artificial greenhouse effect will be benign."

221. Stephen H. Schneider (Prof:. Bio. Sci., Stanford U.), LABORATORY EARTH. 97. 114-5.
"While there is much disagreement over the details, if one were to sample a large fraction of the knowledgeable scientific community, I am confident that one would find that the bulk of such experts consider ( I ) it to be a pretty good bet--a coin flip at least--that substantial global change impacts will unfold, (2) that there's perhaps only a 10 to 20 percent chance that either net beneficial to negligible changes will result, and (3) there is also a 10 to 20 percent chance that there will be widespread catastrophic outcomes from the human activities creating global change."

222. Henry Linden (Staff in JRNL. COMMERCE, Mar. 17. 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/I/97), 6A.
"Moreover, it is still an open issue if moderate temperature increases and ecological impacts related to atmospheric CO2 enrichment would be beneficial or harmful. Paleoclimatic dam, correlations between climate and human development and well-being over the last 10,000 years and the demonstrated positive impact of atmospheric CO2-enrichment on vegetation growth. suggest that doubling of pre-industrial CO2 concentrations poses no credible threat and, on balance, may yield major benefits."

223. Nicholas Schoon (Envir. Correspondent), THE INDEPENDENT, Jan. 4, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 1.
"We are curious, awed by the notion that a single species- us - can now alter our planet's entire climate. But in a bitter week of frozen winds from Siberia, it is hard to think of this grand, looming threat as anything other than an apocalyptic fantasy or an irrelevance."

224. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.,/it/antic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 270.
"Another perspective: Around 1,000 years ago came several centuries during which northern latitudes were perhaps a few degrees warmer than today. During this warm spell the Vikings may have been able to sail to North America because they could stop en route at Greenland to rest and hunt. A thousand years ago Greenland was alive: probably the place Viking records call 'Vineland.' blooming in the warmer temperatures of the time. All but the most pessimistic forecasts for an artificial greenhouse effect call for no more global heat than was common during the days of Vineland, a period that occurred just a wink of the eye ago to nature."

225. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 110.
"The Carboniferous era was about 80 million years. two million times longer than the period of industrial emissions of carbon. Through that entire span the carbon dioxide level of the air was dramatically higher than today. without triggering any instant doomsday."

226. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,270.
"The 'best-guess' estimate of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, a United Nations affiliate whose greenhouse predictions were used to justify the aura of pessimism that pulsate around the 1992 Earth Summit, is an eventual people-caused temperature rise of 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Such an increase surely would be significant but would still leave the Earth starkly cooler than has been its condition for most of the span in which mammals have existed."

227. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 279.
"It appears the Earth has spend hundreds of millions of years in conditions environmentalists would call a global-warming disaster, with typical temperatures higher than today's by ten to 22 degrees Fahrenheit. A temperature rise in this range would surely render the Earth inhospitable to genus Homo and thousands of other present species; but not even worst-case projections anticipate warming of such magnitude."

228. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 110.
"Van Der Burgh reported that typical airborne CO2 levels of the past ten million years have varied from 280 to 370 parts per million. The current CO2 level is about 355 ppm. This suggests that in the past ten million years--overall a relatively cool period For global climate---the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere has at times been higher than today 's on a purely natural basis."

229. Robert White (Fmr. Chief, U.S. Weather Bureau) in ISSUES IN SCI. & TECH., Fall, 96, 38.
"In fact, the actions taken by nations to day in the ace of existing climate variability would need to be extended only slightly for people to adapt. Human beings live in the most extreme polar and desert regions. Throughout history, humans have adapted to climate variability by planting crops that thrive in different climates, building dams to store water, building coastal defenses against inundations, and adapting clothing and modes of shelter to enable them to exist in almost all climates. Extraordinary changes in these strategies would probably not be needed."

230. Thomas Moore {St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 15 1.
"The influence of climate on human activities has declined with the growth in wealth and resources. Primitive man and hunter-gatherer tribes were at the mercy of the weather, as are societies which are still almost totally bound to the soil. A series of bad years can be devastating. If, as was the usual case until very recently, transportation is costly and slow, even a regional/zeal drought or an excess of rain can lead to disaster, although crops may be plentiful a short distance away. Thus variation in the weather for early man had a more profound influence on his life and death than do fluctuations in temperature or rainfall in modern times when economies are more developed. Since the time of the Industrial Revolution, climate has basically been confined to a minor role in human activity."

231. IPCC WGZ Summary for Policymakers References Report in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 637.
"Non-climate effects may be more important than climate change. Local environmental and socioeconomic situations are changing rapidly for reasons other than climate change. Worldwide population growth, industrialization, urbanization, poverty, technological change, and government policy could overwhelm any effects of climate change."

232. Julian L. Simon (Prof., Bus. Adm., U. MD), THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE 2, 96, 269.
"If there is warming, it will occur over many decades, during which period there will be much time for economic and technical adjustment. Any necessary adjustments would be small relative to the adjustments that we make during the year to temperature differences where we reside and as we travel. A trip from New York to Philadelphia, or spring coming a day or two earlier than usual, is not very different than the temperature gradient for any likely warming within the next century."

233. Stephen Edwards (Staff, The World Conservation Union) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 218.
"The data through 1949 give the impression that we are experiencing a very rapid increase in extinctions, but this may not be the case. When data from 1950 to 1990 are included, there appears to be a decline in the number. When the data are viewed in ten-year increments, it is clear that documented extinctions peaked in the 1930s and that the number of extinctions has been declining since then."

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234. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 36.
"Edward O. Wilson of Harvard University, a leading contemporary biologist, thinks that at present global genetic diversity is the highest ever;', with perhaps as many as 100 million species walking the Earth. This does not mean we live in the best of all possible worlds. But from the standpoint of environmental resilience, we live in the best world so far."

235. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 560.
"One reason species loss numbers are squirrely is that they are based on projections, not actual observations. This is unavoidable; since the true number of species is not known, any forecasts must include simulations. But torture statistics and they will confess to anything."

236. Stephen Edwards (Staff, The World Conservation Union) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 221.
"Vernon Heywood and Simon Stuart who head IUCN's Plant and Species Conservation Programs, conclude a review of species extinctions in tropical forests by noting that 'there is currently very little evidence of extinctions at the rates predicted by some theoretical models.' They point out that predicting extinctions is fraught with many inherent difficulties."

237. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 558-9.
"According to a Department of the Interior study, if plant subspecies and insects are added to extinction calculations, perhaps 35 organisms fell extinct in the United States during the 1980s. Under Wilson's dark estimate of 137 species lost globally each day, about 500,000 species should have vanished worldwide in that decade. As America contains six percent of the globe's land, a very rough proration would assign six percent of that loss, or 30,000 extinctions, to the United States. Yet in the 1980s, at most 35 actual U.S. extinctions were logged. There is a wide gap between a roughly projected 30,000 and an observed 35."

238. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 557.
"There is no clear estimate of how many species may exist. Armies of researchers would be required to inventory every species in a world where nature is vast, evolution is ongoing, and most living things are tiny."

239. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 557.
"Taken at face the new estimates of very high total numbers of species can also imply that current losses are not so bad. Extinction of a few hundred species from a base of one million might be an ominous portent. The same loss from a base of 100 million species might suggest no more than a natural fluctuation."

240. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 552.
"To approach the topics of species preservation and its sibling issue, biodiversity, it is essential first to bear in mind this sobering fact: Since nature began, 99 percent of all species called forth into being have eventually been rendered extinct. This estimate is almost universally accepted by researchers."

241. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 558.
"Biologists generally estimate the 'baseline' rate of extinctions from ongoing natural processes at around one per year. That's a squirrely number too; nobody really knows. To highlight human perfidy, many environmentalists set the baseline rate far lower. The World Wildlife Fund. for instance, declares that 'in the age before man, the earth lost one species every thousand years.' A very low natural rate must be assumed to support the notion of the Earth minus humanity as an Eden."

242. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 35.
"Environmentalists often speak as if the typical creature is genetically hyperspecialized to precise conditions: Show those conditions change even marginally, death awaits. Yet scientific evidence increasingly suggests that frequent ecological alterations are the norm for nature. Thus it should be expected that natural selection has prepared the majority of creatures for this."

243. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,561.
"Next, as has been pointed out by Julian Simon of the University of Maryland and the late Aaron Wildavsky of the University of California at Berkeley, the island theory of biogeography assumes that habitat loss happens in confined areas From which nonavian species cannot retreat and regroup. But in fact not all habitat loss happens under such circumstances. Most happens where species, pressured in one place, may move to another."

244. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 101.
"The greatest known loss of Earth life was the Permian extinction that occurred roughly 250 million years ago. At that time as many as 96 percent of the life-forms on Earth fell extinct. if you believe the current ordering of nature gloried and worthy of reverence, then you must believe the Permian extinction was a splendorous event. Without it in the species and ecological wonders we now seek to preserve would never have come into being. Some other set of creatures and wonders would exist, to be sure. But there might be, say, no dolphins or whales: The Permian extinction was particularly hard on aquatic life. Them might be no bear, no frogs, no otter, no songbirds, no flowering plants, no old growth forests, no taiga. no Madagascan lemur."

245. Stephen H. Schneider (Prof., Bio. Sci., Stanford U.), LABORATORY EARTH, 97, 99-100.
"It often is not clear in advance of performing the experiment in nature whether any particular community is loosely knit or tightly bound, let alone what the keystone species are in that community or whether there are critical population thresholds below which extinction is likely and reverberations will plague the community for a long time."

246. Julian L. Simon (Prof.. Bus. Adm., U. MD). THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE 2, 96, 449.
"Maintaining the Amazon and other areas in a state of stability might even have counterproductive results for species diversity, according to a recent body of research. Natural disturbances, as long as they are not catastrophic, may lead to environmental disturbance and to consequent isolation of species that may 'facilitate ever-increasing divergence,' as Colinvaux tells us. Colinvaux goes on to suggest that 'the highest species richness will be found not where the climate is stable but rather where environmental disturbance is frequent but not excessive."'

247. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen., Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH.. Winter, 96-97, 54.
"Robert Stewart. from Victoria University in Vancouver. British Columbia, had given a keynote address at the Joint Oceanographic Assembly, Acapulco. Mexico, in August 1988, on the conditions around the world that influence changes in sea level. Considering every possible factor, he noted that eustatic sea level had been rising at a rate no more than I millimeter per year for the past two centuries, and there were no natural or anthropogenic circumstances likely to change that rate for the next century."

248. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps Inst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST. Nov. 16, 95, 118.
"Estimates of how much the seas will rise due to increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have improved considerably. The 1983 NAS report predicted that a doubling of CO2 would raise ocean heights about 2 feet. Now, however, scientists believe the correct amount is closer to I fool a figure that agrees with satellite measurements of the current rate of change in sea level. This is supported by the very small change in the thickness of the principal ice caps."

249. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 292.
"Scientific support for the notion of a drastic rise in sea level has
waned rapidly, however. A decade ago, sea-level increases of ten feet were commonly projected for the twenty-first century. Now the worst case estimates are two to seven feet."

250. Nick Johnstone (Jr. Rsrch- Officer. Dept. Applied E~.. U. ('an, bridge) et al. in GLOBAL WARMING & ENERGY DEMAND, 95.4-
"Solow (1991: 25) points out that the estimates of damage from global warming have been moving away from 'apocalyptic scenarios'.  For example, likely sea-level rise over the next hundred years is put at less than one metre now, as opposed to three metres or more predicted a flew years ago."

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251. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 6-7.
"The idea that sea level changes may have something to do with the changing shape of the o6ean floor which may in turn have something to do with plate tectonics is put forward by geologists Lawrence Cathless of Cornell University and Anthony Hallam of Birmingham."

252. William Meyer (Rsrch. Faculty, Clark U.), HUMAN IMPACT ON THE EARTH, 96, 207-8.
"Again, the magnitude of rise to be expected is uncertain, and it has even been suggested on good scientific grounds that a warming of the polar regions would produce not a rise but a drop in sea level. By increasing the capacity of the air for moisture and hence for snowfall, a warming would lead to a net growth of the ice sheets and subtract water From the oceans."

253. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps Inst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCI. INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 122-3.
"Another serious question whose implications were widely discussed and analyzed ten years ago was that of sea level rise. Putting aside some grossly exaggerated predicted changes that were as high was twenty-five feet, the Academy report settled on a rise of two feel hat is 60 centimeters, as a result of an equivalent doubling of CO2 concentration of greenhouse gases. The IPCC report used this Academy number. This calculated rise was composed of two approximately equal parts. That due to the estimated deglaciation and that due to the thermal expansion of the upper ocean. However, it appeared that the thermal expansion had not been correctly calculated in the Academy report. The Hamburg atmosphere-ocean coupled model first showed that the properly calculated thermal expansion was much less. In their model this was largely due to the fact that, since the thermal coefficient of expansion of sea water nearly vanishes at 0 Celsius, this near zero number is the correct one to use rather than the average ocean temperature because the polar waters are the primary sinks for the excess heat."

254. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 293.
"In 1992 David Jacobs of the American Museum of Natural History and Dork Sahagian of Ohio State University showed that past warm epochs on Earth might have known noticeably lower (emphasis in original) sea levels, as increased humidity in the air caused more rainfall over land. shifting significant amounts of water to glaciers, lakes, and underground aquifers. Jacobs and Sahagian have found a gigantic dry basin in China. called the Tarim, that in past ages of greater rainfall may have held water equivalent to 3.5 feet of world sea level."

255. EXPLAINING CLIMATE CHANGE (World Wildlife Fund Report), Feb.. 96, I 1.
"There is a possibility that greenhouse-induced warming could set off a catastrophic collapse of the unstable West Antarctic ice sheet. The IPCC says that 'estimating the likelihood of a collapse during the next century is not yet possible,' though it is likely to be very remote."

256. Thomas Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING. 95, I-2.
"Warm periods bring benign rather than violent weather. Mile temperatures will induce evaporation from oceans and thus rainfall (where it will fall we cannot be sure, but the earth as a whole should receive greater precipitation that it does not)."

257. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report. GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 152.
"Small-scale phenomena, such as hurricanes and thunderstorms, cannot yet be analyzed by current climate change, such as changes in global mean temperatures."

258. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 7F;,
"How does El Nino fit into the greenhouse warming debate? Scientists say speculation along these lines is difficult to prove. 'It's a real chicken and egg problem,' Nicholas Graham, an oceanographer at Scripps was reported recently as saying. 'If you have consistent El Ninos, then you end up producing a warmer world. So are more El Ninos causing global warming, or is global warming causing more El Ninos? I'd hesitate even to guess. "'

259. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 302."
"In pop depictions of the greenhouse effect, such as the 1993 CBS television miniseries The Fire Next Time, it is asserted as fact that
greenhouse warming will create hyperstorms. So far this notion is unsupported by research. Severe twentieth-century hurricanes occurred mainly in cool years. For instance Hurricane Andrew came in 1992, during the mild post-Pinatubo summer. There have been two maximum-category hurricanes in the United States in this century. One which struck Florida in 1935, when storms were unnamed, arrived long before significant emissions of greenhouse gases. The second, Hurricane Camille, came in 1969, a cool year. So far research suggests that warm years tend to produce more storms of low intensity, cool years fewer storms of higher intensity."

260. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 11.
"In the United States Forests reached their nadir in the 1920s, damaged extensively by shoddy logging practices. But as the forestry analyst Roger Sedjo, of the Washington think tank Resources for the Future, has written, sometime around the early 1940s 'forest growth nationally came into balance with harvests, and since that time growth has exceeded harvest.' The total amount of forest has been expanding in the United States and Western Europe during the postwar era--the very period during which, environmental doctrine says, nature has been put to rout."

261. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 32.
"Other findings suggest that the temperate forests are not so much 'vanishing' as adversely affecting wildlife and biodiversity. Indigenous tree species are not being demolished For good. but are being replaced with newer types of plantation to supply the pulp industry. A World Wildlife Fund report in October 1992 referred specifically to Chile, where nearly 20 percent of the country's forests are under plantation with a newly introduced Monterey pine, while much of the native forests were exported."

262. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen.. Int'l. Assn. For the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH.. Winter, 96-97, 58.
"Now for that blather about coral reefs: Richard Grigg, coral reel' expert of the University of Hawaii, has surveyed Pacific reefs and atolls multiple times in the past two decades. There is no evidence of any reduction or detrimental modification in the growth of the corals on any Pacific or Indian ocean reef that can be attributed to warming waters."

263. Max Wallis (Pro/; Math, U. Wales-Cardiff, UK) in TIME SCALES & ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 113.
"Many analysts argue that uncertainties in future global climate change are substantial: Schneider (1993) has conceived various prospective surprises, from super hurricanes to political instability. There is substantial risk to the entire global economy (and environment), not to a small subsection. It is to be hoped that avoidance measures (greenhouse gas mitigation) will be adopted, collectively and at various future times dependent on then current data and theoretical prediction. The damage and risk are related in complex ways to knowledge and geopolitics as well as time. The large uncertainty and risk is sufficient reason to challenge the neoclassical economic model."

264. Stephen H. Schneider (Prof., Bio. Sci., Stanford U.), LABORATORY EARTH, 97, 131-2.
"In this connection, the Yale University forestry economist Rob Mendelsohn has tried to estimate the costs and benefits (impacts) of typical global warming scenarios in the United States using what are known as 'hedonic' methods. In brief, rather than account explicitly for complex physical, biological, and social processes that determine the profitability of agriculture or forestry, this method simply compares these economic activities in warm places like the Southeast and colder places like the Northeast. This provides a proxy for how temperature changes might affect these segments of the economy. The method is controversial, since natural scientists dispute that the difference between business as usual in northern climates or southern climates can act as a proxy for time-evolving or transient changes in temperature, and other variables. to say nothing about surprises."

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265. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fond.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 12.
"Finally, it is difficult to determine the extent to which global warming constitutes a harm based on any existing standard. There is much broader agreement regarding the impacts upon human beings from such toxic gases as ozone and carbon monoxide than there is with regard to greenhouse gases, which cause relatively little known damage to either people or property."

266. Kenneth Small (Prof., Eco., U. CA-lrvine) in JRNL. OF TRANSPORT ECONOMICS & POLICY, Jan., 95, 28.
"Finally, how much might global warming did to these cost estimates? The scientific basis for estimating damage from global warming is especially shaky because the nature of the phenomenon is so uncertain and its anticipated effects, if they occur at all, will be cumulative and mostly in the distant future."

267. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report. GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 151-2.
"Little is known about the effects of climate change on economic and ecological systems as well. A rational climate policy would require knowledge about the costs of possible climate change in economic terms. Some areas can be identified where climate change could lead to serious damages. However, the problems of more precise quantification are immense. There is a need to catalogue potential impacts to quantify them, and finally, and perhaps the most difficult. to value the effects in economic terms. Only alter all of these steps are taken. can the costs of climate change be ascertained."

268. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report. GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95. 152.
"There have been several estimates of the economic damages of climate change (Cline, 1992; Titus. 1992: Nordhaus. 1993. Frankhauser. 1993). It is no surprise that these are highly controversial They have little or no basis in empirical research on natural coo-systems (where the greatest uncertainties lie) and do not reflect the great range of uncertainty on damages."

269. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.). GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW. 96. 139.
"Nordhaus points out that since the climate does not have a large economic impact upon the industrialized states, affecting under 1% of total national income, then adaptation would prove economically more beneficial than abatement for those states."

270. Ian Rowlands (Ph.D. Candidate, London Sch. of Eco. & Pol. Sci.). THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE, 95, 138.
"William Nordhaus, an economist from Yale, concludes that the damage would not have been significant: In sum, the economic impact upon the U.S. economy of the climatic changes induced by a doubling of CO2 concentrations is likely to be small. The point estimate today is that the impact. in terms of variables that have been quantified, is likely to be around one-fourth of I percent of national income."

271. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 139.
"The opposing argument of 'no regrets' suggest that states adapt to and mitigate climate changes, rather than to attempt to prevent these changes outright. In this area, the work of William Nordhaus is prominent in the relevant literature. He advocates adaptation to and mitigation of global warming as he estimates the economic benefits to be gained by abatement are not that great, at least for the industrialized states."

272. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95. Summary.
"Contrary to the doom and gloom scenarios that environmentalists propound, both evidence and theory suggest that global warming would in general be unaffected by a warming of five to nine degrees Fahrenheit. Agriculture and some services might actually benefit. Moreover, past history shows two periods that were significantly warmer than today, and during both eras mankind flourished."

273. Hugh W. Ellsaesser (Atmospheric Sci., Lawrence Livermore Nat'l. Lab) in 21ST CENT. SCI. & TECH., Summer, 95, 58.
"Note also that the periods of warmer climate have been called climatic optima--and well they must have appeared to the colonist leer in Greenland and to the Norwegians who were pushed out of their farms and villages by advancing glaciers during the Little lee Age."

274. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 54.
"Based on history, however, global warming is likely to e positive for most of humankind, and the additional carbon, rain, and warmth should promote plant growth that can sustain an expanding world population. Global change is inevitable; warmer is better, richer is healthier."

275. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 53.
"As noted, not all regions or all peoples benefit from a shift to a warmer climate. Some locales may become to dry or too wet; others may become too warm. Certain areas may be subject to high-pressure systems that block storms and rains. Other parts may experience the reverse. On the whole, though, humankind should benefit from an upward tick in the thermometer."

276. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95. 20.
"In summary, the evidence overwhelmingly supports the proposition that, during warm periods, humans prospered. They multiplied more rapidly, they lived longer, and they apparently were healthier."

277. Thos. Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst0, GLOBAL WARMING. 95. 18.
"As can be seen, warm periods have done considerably better than cold periods in terms of human expansion. The warmest period since the end of the last Ice Age produced the highest rate of population growth compared to what would have been expected (and the spread of agriculture). Moreover, the mini Ice Age, which saw the coldest temperatures in the last ten thousand years, underwent the slowest relative population expansion. Thus humans have prospered in warm periods, the hotter the better!"

278. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 148.
"An examination of the record of the last twelve millennia reveals that mankind prospered during the warm periods and suffered during the cold ones."

279. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16. 95, 156.
"In summary, the evidence overwhelmingly supports the proposition that during warm periods, humans prospered. They multiplied more rapidly; they lived longer: and they apparently were healthier."

280. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 6.
"Professor of Climatology Robert Pease writes that we may now be living in an 'icehouse' world and that a warming of about two degrees celsius, which is what his model indicates, may actually make the earth more habitable. The higher temperatures combined with more carbon dioxide will favor plant and crop growth and could well provide more food for our burgeoning global populations."

281. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow. Hoover Inst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 147.
"If warming occurs, it is more likely to bring net benefits than losses to Americans and most of the world. Warmer periods in the past have brought benign weather. Milder temperatures will induce more evaporation from oceans and very likely more rainfall--where it will fall we cannot be sure but the earth as a whole should receive greater precipitation."

282. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow. Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 93.
"What is worrying is that this seems to be happening--the next ice age may arrive sooner than we expect. Several different groups of scientists seem to be saying this."

283. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 14.
"The current status of the global atmosphere is that the warming effect of the increasing atmospheric CO2 could outweigh or overshadow the effects of the current cooling trend. There is also the possibility that the overall long-term cooling trend may be tempered by global warming. History shows that warming is better than cooling."

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284. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 268-9.
"There is not the slightest doubt another ice age will have awful consequences, including the loss of far more plant and animal life, and millions more acres of habitat, than could happen under the worst-case projections for all human ecological abuses combined. People worry about the Earth becoming too warm. Nature worries about the Earth becoming too cold."

285. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 268.
"By the decade of the 1980s genus Homo had developed an intense paranoia that a warming ecology would be catastrophic. Yet whether a greenhouse effect is coming is speculation; that more ice ages are coming appears a finality."

286. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 63.
"There are important reasons for the increased crop productivity, dry matter increases, and higher yields from elevated levels of CO2. First is the superior efficiency of photosynthesis. resulting in marked reductions of respiration. Net photosynthesis is the sum of gross photosynthesis minimum respiration. including both photorespiration and dark respiration. The second is an increased water use efficiency resulting from sharp reductions in water loss per unit of leaf area. This relates to the partial closing of stomata associated with higher CO2 levels, while stomata admit air and CO2 into the leaf for photosynthesis, they are also the chief conduit for moisture loss."

287. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.). FOOD. CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 94.
"Concerning the fact that most plants respond favorably with growth increases from atmospheric CO2 enhancement and there is an overwhelming positive effect on yield (Kimball. 1986b). most authors dealing with the direct effects of CO2 having an agricultural orientation have concluded that the impact on crops will be positive in terms of vegetative extension, stem thickness. leaf area and size. seed and fruit production. and especially root growth and extension and the accumulation of dry matter."

288. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 55.
"Another scenario projects the impact of the several positive direct effects of the rising level of atmospheric CO2 on plant growth and development, and resultant global food production, accompanied by a modest increase of one or two degrees or less in global atmospheric temperature. This scenario is based on the known facts that elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 have the positive effect of substantially increasing .photosynthetic efficiency, depressing both dark and photorespiration. increasing water use efficiency, root growth. and biological nitrogen fixation. reducing injury from air pollutants. and compensating, in part. for deficiencies in sunlight water. adverse high and low temperatures, and soil nitrogen deficiencies."

289. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof, Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 64.
"Most green plants, fruit, nut. ornamental. shade. and forest trees and shrubs, algae, most cereal grains (rice wheat, oats, rye, barley), all legumes, roots. and tubers, and vegetable and fruit crops, comprising about 95% of the earth's plants, use the C3 pathway. It is so named because the first products of photosynthesis have three carbon atoms per molecule. C3 species have both qualitatively and quantitatively greater photosynthetic responses to elevated CO2 levels than C4 or CAM species. C3 plants have the inherent ability for more photosynthesis if the atmospheric level of CO2 is increased."

290. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, Ml St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 74.
"The above observations strongly suggest that a substantial research effort should be directed toward the direct effects of photosynthetic water use efficiency on plants with the rising level of atmospheric CO2. The rise is real. The positive effects on plant growth, water use, and global food production are real."

291. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 86.
"Counterpart to evidence of a significant CO2-induced global warming trend, which is still uncertain after more than a decade of controversy, and seeking a first detection (Wittwer, 198 1 b), is accumulating evidence of the greening of the earth, especially in the agricultural and forestry areas. The evidence comes from many sources. Globally, agricultural crop yields are projected to increase by an average of 33% (Kimball, 1983a, b), with a doubling of current ambient atmospheric CO2 concentrations."

292. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, M! St. U.), FOOD, CL1MATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95.65.
"Most of the experimental results thus far for an enhancement of photosynthetic efficiency have been related to a reduction. or near elimination, of photorespiration in C3 plants. This, coupled with the enhancement of water use efficiency, has led to an approximate prediction of a 33% increase in the mean yield, with a 95% confidence level of 27 to 38% of most of the world's important C3 and C4 plants, resulting from an approximate doubling of the current atmospheric CO concentration."

293. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, Ml St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 100.
"Extensive experimentation with enrichment of greenhouse atmospheres for the production of vegetables (tomato, pepper, eggplant, cucumber, lettuce) and flowers (carnations. roses. chrysanthemums. poinsettia, snapdragons. bedding plants) was conducted in the late 1950s, during the 1960s. and in the early 1970s. The results of these studies have been summarized by Bauerle et al. (1986), Enoch and Kimball (1986), Goldsberry (1986), Hanan ( 1986). Moe and Mortensen (1987), Porter and Grodzinski (1985), Slack (1986). and Wittwer (1986). With vegetable crops, the effects are more rapid growth, earlier maturity. larger fruit size. greater height and total yields. and an improvement in fruit quality."

294. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture. MI St. U.). FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 59-60.
"Over 1000 experiments have now been conducted around the world reporting favorable growth improvement or responses, approximating an overall increase in yield of 33% for all mature and immature plants from a doubling of the CO2 concentration from its current level of 360 ppm (Kimball. 1985). These data have been further extrapolated by Goudriaan and Unsworth (1990), who suggested that about 5 to 50% of the actual rate of increase of agricultural productivity worldwide during the past century can be ascribed to the fertilizing effect of rising atmospheric CO2."

295. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 63.
"Results with all these different approaches to atmospheric CO2 control generally have been positive. Of over a thousand experiments. detailed in 324 peer-reviewed scientific reports. 93% reported an increase in plant productivity averaging 52%. Only 2% gave a documented decrease (Idso, 1993)."

296. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.). FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 61-2.
"The second Geophysical phenomenon is the stimulative effect of the rising atmospheric CO2 enrichment on plant growth and productivity (Acock and Allen, 1985: Allen, 1979; Allen et al., 1987; Cure and Acock. 1986; Idso, 1989a; ldso and Kimball. 1992; Kimball 1983b: Kimball et al., ! 993a; Reifsnyder. 1989; Rosenberg 1981; Wittwer. 1985 ). The effect is direct, is easily observed. has been subject to thousands of experimental trials, and is easily measured. Results now range from plants grown under the protection of greenhouses, and other controlled environment chambers, and open-top chambers (Leadley and Drake, 1993) for some of the major food crops of the world in open fields, forest tree species. aquatic plants, and those in wetlands and in the arctic tundra. to simulated tropical ecosystems. Finally, free air CO2 experiments without any containment are now in progress for some of the world's major agricultural crops (Hendrey et al., 1993; Kimball, 1993b).'

297. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 62.
"Thus far the FACE system has been in use on cotton for four seasons with stable control of CO2 at 550 ppm :t:10%. Results with cotton showed that with CO2-enricbed plants there were significant increases in biomass accumulation both above, and especially below ground. Soil respiration was also increased in CO2--enriched plots. The enriched plants matured earlier with greater agronomic yields. Water-use efficiency also increased with CO2 enrichment as has been observed in many other studies."

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298. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 38-9.
"Not all agree with such extreme levels of warming (Bailing, 1992; Idso, 1989; Lindzen, 1993; Michaels, 1991; Michaels et al., 1993; Seitz et al., 1989a; Strommen, 1992) and project much more tolerable, and even favorable changes when coupled with the direct benefits of rising levels of atmospheric CO2. They predict that there would be a net benefit for food production. The position of a very modest temperature change related to the lower levels of increase is supported by the record of the past 100 years, where the average global temperature has increased only between 0.3 and 0.6C (0.5 to 1.1F).'

299. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 12.
"For over 100 years, nursery operators have been adding CO2 to raise the yields of vegetables, flowers, and ornamentals grown in protective structures (Wittwer, 1985. 1986; Wittwer and Castilla, 1995; Wittwer and Robb, 1964). For decades. it has been known among biochemists, botanists, agriculturists, and foresters that a shortage of atmospheric CO2 is often the most limiting factor preventing photosynthesis from proceeding more rapidly."

300. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof. Horticulture, MI St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 10.
"Of all the earth's planetary components the photosynthetically active biota are the most likely to be affected by the rising level of atmospheric CO2. The first, which is already known, is the direct positive effect on the photosynthetic efficiency, and the second, on increased water use efficiency. These have been observed in thousands of experiments."

301. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, Ml St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 68.
'isolated CO2-enriched plants produce more foliage. This allows even more CO2 to be fixed. substantially magnifying the growth enhancement produced by the increased photosynthetic efficiency of each unit area of CO2-enriched leaf surface. This enhanced positive feedback, however, does not go uninhibited. With more foliage. there is more self-shading. New approaches to an accurate assessment of acclimatization or downward regulation of photosynthesis to growth of some species at elevated CO2 concentrations have been reported by Long et al. (1993) and Besford ( 1993)."

302. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, MI St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 86-7.
"It has also been suggested that from a further increase of CO2 in the atmosphere to 400 ppm, the level projected by some for the year 2020 would probably result in a 20% increase in photosynthetic rates for some plants. provided other growth factors were not limited."

303. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof. Horticulture, MI St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOX1DE, 95.49.
"Rising global atmospheric CO2 will increase photosynthesis. growth, productivity, and water-use efficiency of both C3 and C4 plants (Allen, 1991: Allen et al.. 1986)."

304. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof, Horticulture, MI St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 60.
"Rogers et al., (1994a) correctly state that 'Carbon dioxide is the first molecular link from atmosphere to biosphere. It is essential for photosynthesis which sustains plant lift:, the basis of the entire food chain. No substance is more pivotal for ecosystems, either natural or managed.' The rising levels of atmospheric CO2 represent a resource for agriculture and food production rather than a conventional air pollutant.'

305. Nick Johnstone (Jr. Rsrch. Officer, Dept. Applied Eco., U. Cambridge) et al. in GLOBAL WARMING & ENERGY DEMAND, 95, 4.
"An atmosphere richer in CO2 may enhance photosynthesis and raise productivity in agriculture and forestry. More northerly latitudes, becoming warmer, may become more agriculturally productive."

306. Jonathan Groves (Prof., Bio., U. York, UK) in GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 9.
"The fluxes in the terrestrial biological system are more than an order of magnitude greater than those of human origin, therefore a small change in either the rate of photosynthesis or the rate of respiration, on a worldwide scale, might greatly alter the rate at which CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. Why might these fluxes change I the future7 An increased atmospheric concentration of CO2 might lead to higher rates of photosynthesis and the incorporation of more carbon in the biosphere."


307. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof, Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 87.
"The most likely CO2 seasonal behavior reflects an increase in global photosynthetic activity. The overall increase of the amplitude of the annual cycle by about 10% between the decade of the 60s and the decade of the 80s gives direct evidence of an increase in the activity of the biosphere by about
0.5% per year."

308. Jonathan Groves (Prof., Bio., U. York, UK) in GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 28.
"One of the most important consequences of growing plants in enriched CO2 is that they become more efficient in the use of water. A doubling of the atmospheric concentration could theoretically lead to as much as a 75% increase in the amount of dry matter fixed per unit of water used by plants. Reviews of past experiments conducted under controlled
conditions indicate that water use is reduced by about 30% when the concentration of CO2 is doubled."

	309. Jonathan Groves (Prof.. Bio., U. York, UK)in GLOBAL ENVIR.CHANGE, 96, 36-7.
		"Enriched CO2 will significantly increase the water use efficiency of plants by a combination of reduced stomatal resistance and increased photo-synthesis. If the concentration of CO2 doubles, both C3 and C4 plants should	increase WUE by 30-40% if the stomata adjust to maintain a constant Ci. In addition, C3 plants will increase photosynthesis by about 30%."

310.  Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 70.
 	An important phenomenon associated with increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 is that the leaf stomata of plants will partially close. This increases the resistance to transpiratory water loss, with decreases in leaf transpiration rates, and an increase in water use efficiency."
 
311.  . Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 34-5
		"Plants tend, in other words, to reduce water loss through their stomata rather than take up more food from the C02. It seems that leaves grown at low CO2 levels form more stomata than when exposed to higher	concentrations. The British Museum, says one scientist, has plant specimens going back to the 19th century with more stomata (gas exchanging spores) than those today. This suggests plants have become more water-efficient today rather than that CO2 levels are up."

312. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 71-2.
"Water stress is the single most limiting factor for worldwide food. rangeland, and forest production. When atmospheric CO2 concentrations vary significantly, plant water relations are directly affected. Evidence now shows that improved water use efficiency at elevated levels. Elevated levels-.'    of atmosphere CO2 affect stomatal closure and thus result in a reduction in transpiration rates. These effects become progressively greater as the level of atmospheric CO2 rises."

313. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 75.
"If there is, however, as Downtown et al. have suggested, and as confirmed by Rosenberg et al. and others, a significant reduction in consumptive water use at increasingly higher levels of atmospheric CO2 with no appreciable change in temperature, food production could be expanded into some arid and semiarid lands not now considered as having adequate water resources to support crop production. Such areas could include much of the western and southwestern United States, many parts of Russia, India, Pakistan. the North China plain, most Middle Eastern countries, southern Europe. especially Spain, North Africa, all the African countries of the Sahel, and many parts of Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and Australia."

314. Sylvan Wittwer(Prof, Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 71.
"Improved water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO2 may enable plants to occupy habitats which in the absence of such enrichment would be too arid to support life. Indeed, increases in root/shoot ratios. frequently observed under limiting conditions of water or nutrients from CO2 enrichment, enables plants to explore a greater soil volume and acquired more water and nutrients."

315. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 69.
"C3 plants, without these extra buffering pathways, respond both by an increase in the metabolic pathway and a reduction in the photo-respiration cycle to CO2 enrichment. Increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the rate of carbon fixation greatly in C3 plants and to a lesser extent in C4 plants. As a group C4 plants have an average photosynthetic rate about 50% higher than the C3 plants. Increasing CO2 levels should favor C3 species by shifting any competitive balance in their direction. This may be a useful working hypothesis for weed/crop relations. In their arid, natural habitats, CAM plants show little or no response to an increase in CO2."

316. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof. Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 66.
"The majority of the world's most noxious weeds are C4 plants. Their growth in a higher CO2 world will be less favored than crop plants and forest trees, most of which are C3 plants."

317. Jonathan Groves (Prof., Bio., U. York. UK) in GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 24.
"Plant species may be classified into three types on the basis of the physiology of photosynthesis. Most plants operate what is called C3 metabolism: this refers to the number of carbon atoms in the molecule produced as a consequence of fixing COL There are two other groups of plants with fundamentally different photosynthetic processes, known as C4 plants and crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants. Photosynthesis is likely to increase most in C3 plants."

318. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 65.
"Poorter (1993) gives an updated review of the growth responses of 156 species of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 including crops, wild, and woody, C4, and CAM species. Compared to C3 species. the growth stimulating effect is less with C4 plants, but certainly is not nil."

319. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof, Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 70-1.
"That elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 alleviate water stress in plants by increasing stomatal resistance has now been confirmed by many independent investigations for a large number of plant species of atmospheric CO2 associated with what may be projected as a global warming is an important finding for agriculture, rangeland, forestry, and all natural ecosystems that are photosynthetically active. By far. the greater response resides with C3 plants such as soybeans, wheat potatoes, rice. cotton. and forest trees."

320. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture. MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 84-5.
"It is now well known that C3 and C4 plants respond differently to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. These widely reported differential responses should be particularly relevant to weed/crop competition for agriculture in a future high CO2 world."

321. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 81-2.
"ldso (1989a), with a thorough review of the literature then available. suggests a tipping of the scales in favor of plants over foraging insects in a higher CO2 world. This relates to the assumption that insect damage and attack may be partially or totally circumvented by the more rapid vegetative growth and earlier maturity of plants grown at elevated levels of atmospheric COL Earlier maturity induced by elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 should enable some crops to escape the ravages of insect invasions, as well as disease and weed infestations and drought."

322. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95.82.
"Thompson and Drake (1994) report fur both a C3 sedge and a C4 grass exposed to elevated CO2 in open top chambers in the field, there was less infestation of insects, and the severity of infection from pathogenic fungi was reduced. For insects the number of plants infested and tissue consumed were decreased."

323. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 81.
"Populations of flea beetles, leaf hoppers, predaceous flies, and pink bollworms were much reduced at the higher (500 and 650 ppm) CO2 treatment, compared to those at the ambient level. Beet army worms feeding on cotton grown at 640 ppm, compared to 320 ppm of atmospheric CO2, experienced significant increases in times of development and mortality, as well as significant decreases in growth. Plant-eating caterpillars performed poorly on a diet of CO? Enriched foliage compared to that grown at the ambient level."

324. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 92-3.
"Increased rooting from CO2 enrichment poses many interesting possibilities for both managed and natural ecosystems, including forestry. A 50% increase in root growth of pasture grasses has been reported. along with a significant increase in net photosynthesis and proportional increase in roots for Populus grandidentata. Stimulation of rooting induced by CO2 enrichment could be important, especially under moisture stress in establishing crop and forest tree seedlings and transplants. Deeper soil penetration offers the probability of access to deeper reserves and the mining of more water as well as other soil resources. Greater root growth and penetration of soil profiles also suggest possibilities of improved plant mycorrhization and could translate into greater rhizodeposition. Clearly, future research must consider not only how CO2 enrichment affects crop rooting, but also, how it impacts other, both physical and biological. processes."

325. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 72.
"Plants are probably going to be larger and have a greater leaf area in the future higher CO2 world. This will tend to increase transpiration water loss. Plants will also, to partially compensate, likely have a larger, more vigorous root system capable of extracting more water and nutrients from the soil."

326. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 92.
"Responses with soybean from CO2 enrichment, demonstrated substantially positive effects on root system architecture, micromorphology, and physiology. Although there were substantial increases in the growth of stem and aerial plant parts, the effects on roots were even greater. Root lengths were increased by 110%and dry weights by 113%. Although root numbers did not increase, the diameter, stele diameter, cortex width. root/shoot, and root/weight ratios all increased."

327. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 92.
"The one fact that is evident from the available information is that increasing levels of CO2 in the earth's atmosphere will have virtually no adverse effects on plant root growth or function, and indeed, roots will likely be positively affected in numerous ways, which should benefit the health and productivity of most plant species."

328. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 93.
"It is now being reported that a common response of plants to an enrichment of CO2 in the air is an increased root to shoot ratio. If such a shift from tops to roots is occurring worldwide, the result would be a most remarkable twofold perhaps threefold---phenomenon resulting in a reduction of water required by plants, an increase in the carbon reservoir of the soil, and an overall increase in yields of major food crops especially the roots and tubers."

329. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 77.
"Stomata provide the main entry points for air pollutants into leaves, but uptake from surface deposition can be significant, ranging from 10 to 25% of the total. Leaf cuticles are generally impermeable to most gaseous air pollutants. It seems, therefore, logical to presume that substances or processes that cause stomates to close might help protect plants from damage by air pollutants. The same mechanism that tends to close stomates and increase water use efficiency in plants when atmospheric levels of CO2 rise acts as a protection against the air pollutants of SO2, N20, and 03 [or both C3 and some C4 plants."

56

330. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 79.
"Aside from the primary entry of air pollutants through stomata, is that of various plant pathogens. Rich ( 1963 ) noted stomata are the most important infection courts for the foliage pathogens that cannot penetrate the unbroken epidermis. If increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations progressively constrict plant stomatal apertures, the incidence of plant diseases may drop or at least, not increase."

331. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 103,6.
"Globally, some 25 crops stand between people and starvation. The production of these crops, their climatic adaptability, and their direct response to CO2 holds priority in any assessment of the effects of currently rising levels of atmospheric CO2 on agricultural output, world food production, and global food security."

332. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 114.
"Wheat is unique as a cereal grain. It is grown on about 250 million hectares, an area larger than any other crop, and is the most widely grown plant in the world today. It contributes more calories and protein to the human diet than any other food. Annual output exceeds 500 million metric tons. As a world trade commodity, it exceeds all other grains combined."

333. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 118-9.
"Overall, studies of elevated atmospheric levels of CO2 on wheat in the United States have shown increases in seed yields ranging from 15 to 50%. These increases were in both seed size (weight) and number and for both Mexican dwarf spring wheat and hard red spring wheat. Winter wheat was grown in open-top chambers in the field during winter-time in Delaware over a 2-year period ( 1979-1980). The plants were subject to CO2 atmosphere levels of 340 and 1200 ppm during daylight hours at different stages of development."

334. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 118.
"For China, the number one rice and wheat producer of the world, Jin et al. (1992) report that the moisture condition is the dominant environmental factor affecting wheat production. When both direct and indirect effects of increased CO2 on wheat yield were considered, the overall output of winter wheat in China, which represents 85% of the total wheat produced, would increase by nearly 16%, most of which would come from the North China Plains."

335. Sylvan Wittwer(Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 117-8.
"Gifford (1989) makes a strong point, with wheat in mind, that the global increases of atmospheric CO2 represent an improving component of the fitness of the earth's environment for food production. Because yield increase percentages in response to high CO2 are larger for drought and salt stressed plants than for nonstressed plants, some marginal cropping sites may show less year-to-year variation. This would be an improvement in the stability of food production as well as the magnitude of output, not only for Australia, but for Russia, the United States, northern Europe, India, Canada, Turkey, and Argentina--all major wheat producers. In the Netherlands, for example, with spring wheat, combinations of a temperature rise and higher CO2 resulted in large increases in dry years, and small increases when water was not limiting growth."

336. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 110.
"Rice, wheat, and corn, viewed together, contribute about one-third of the global total food supply for the supply for the people of the earth. Rice and wheat are rivals as the number one staple food crop."

337. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 112-3.
"Rice, being a C3 plant, is one of the most yield responsive of all plants to elevated levels of atmospheric CO2. Seldom have the optimal responses in experimental treatments been realized by doubling or tripling the current ambient levels and only during the daylight hours."

338. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 113.
"Farmers of east central China, in the Fujian province with its typical tropical lowlands, subtropical mountains, and hilly areas, have long been familiar with temperature sensitivities of the rice plant. They have wisely laid out models of cropping times, varieties, and growing seasons for rice in what they call climatic layers-the warm, the temperate, and the cool. The warm is suitable for double cropping, mid-maturing, and late-maturing varieties. The temperate climate layer is suitable for single- and double-cropping rice. For single cropping, mid- or late varieties are used. For double cropping, it is mid-maturing cultivars. The cool climate layer is for single cropping, and mid- or late-maturing cultivars."

339. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 113-4.
"Rice culture, worldwide, is now limited more by cold than by overly hot temperatures. Shortages of rice in Japan in 1993 were attributed to a stunting of the crop by an unseasonably cold and wet growing season, creating a I million ton shortfall. A current primary research effort on the Hokkaido island of Japan and in the Heilongjiang province of China is to develop rice varieties that are less sensitive to cold temperatures and to extend its culture in climates that are currently too cold for successful production. A global warming, independent of the direct beneficial effects of CO2 might favor world rice production."

340. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 60.
"The curves indicate that it should be possible to improve. by as much 50 to 100%. the yield of photosynthates under natural conditions by means of CO2 fertilization, and that one may expect this to lead to a proportionate increase in crop yields."

341. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 68.
"The proposition that acclimation or a downward regulation of photosynthetic capacity induced by elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 will largely negate the fertilization effect of higher than ambient levels of CO2 on C3 plants is not supported While Stir ( 1991 ) gives a number of mechanisms by which an increase in carbohydrates could produce a feedback inhibiting photosynthetic rates following CO2 increases, Johnson et al. (1993) reported no significant photosynthetic acclimatizations evident for three C3 species-oats, mesquite, and little bluestem--when grown from June to September in serpentine plant growth tunnels with CO2 gradients."

342. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 61.
"For example, there is the current prevailing widespread presumption, often repeated in the scientific literature. that there can be little positive response to CO2 fertilization if other factors, such as water. light. temperature. or soil nutrients, limit growth. This erroneous premise will be discussed and reviewed later in some detail. New free air field plot designs and experiments are now in progress that should resolve this issue."

343. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.). FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 59.
"Indeed, CO2 fertilization of air has proven decidedly beneficial for crops grown in enclosed greenhouse structures, and also for plants and crops exposed to natural atmospheric conditions. Many experimental observations of the influence of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 on Plants have found a number of repeatable effects across most species. These include, growth stimulation, especially of roots, reduced stomatal conduction and leaf nitrogen, and an increase in water use efficiency."

344. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 67.
"Indeed, a series of long-term open-top chamber experiments, very recently conducted and some still in progress by ldso and Kimball (1992, 1993) and ldso et al. (1991), have demonstrated that with citrus and three Australian trees species, and continuous day and night CO2 enrichment, the increased growth rates are linear with the enhancement of net Photosynthesis as a result of elevated levels of atmospheric COL Not only was there a decrease in photorespiration at elevated CO2 levels, but dark respiration dropped by approximately 50% for a 360 to 720 ppm doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration." [Emphasis in original]

345. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 97.
"ldso, with supporting evidence from studies other than his own, has suggested that surprising as it may seem, when the plant environment is not conducive to optimum plant growth, with limitations of light, water, temperature, or nutrients, the relative stimulating effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment are even greater than they are under optimum conditions."

346. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 98.
"The results of continuous CO2 enrichment on field grown cotton, at close to natural conditions in a free-air field environment where both optimal and limiting levels of water and nitrogen were maintained, are very revealing. The data show that for five continuous growing seasons and in all experimental treatments, including limitations of water and nitrogen, cotton yields and dry plant weights were increased significantly by CO2 enrichment."

347. Jonathan Groves (Prof.. Bio., U. York, UK) in GLOBAL ENV1R. CHANGE, 96, 144-5.
"Increases in total growth do not tell the whole story. It is likely that in enriched CO2 the partitioning of resources to different plant components will alter. If this is in favor of the harvestable component, such as the grain of a cereal crop, then the increase in crop yield could be greater than the growth increase."

348. Richard Houghton (Rsrch. Scientist) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 322.
"There have been two moderately long-term experiments in which natural ecosystems were exposed to elevated concentrations of CO2, and the results were not consistent. The net uptake of CO2 by a tundra community showed an increased storage of carbon, but the effect lasted only 3 to 5 yr, or until some other factor became limiting to the growth of plants and the storage of carbon in the system. The results suggested a limited response to elevated levels of CO2. In a continuing study in a tidal marsh. the increased storage of carbon has continued for 6 yr. Rates of photosynthesis increased and rates of decomposition seemed to have decreased. In the 6th yr, the experimental systems still showed an annual accumulation of carbon greater than the control and as large a response as in the first 5 yr."

349. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 189.
"The rising level of atmospheric CO2 could be the one global natural resource that is progressively increasing food production and total biological output, in a world of otherwise diminishing natural resources of land, water, energy, minerals, and fertilizer. It is a means of inadvertently increasing the productivity of farming systems and other photosynthetically active ecosystems. The effects know no boundaries and both developing and developed countries are, and will be, sharing equally."

350. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, M1 St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 106-7.
"The major inputs for food production are climate. land, water. genetics, chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), and technology. The cropped area of the world is now about 1.5 billion ha. There is the potential for much more. particularly in the United States, Russia, Brazil. Argentina, Central America, Australia, New Zealand, many African nations, and even in China. India, and Indonesia."

351. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 5.
"While future-induced shifts in climate are highly debatable, increased atmospheric CO2 levels will directly affect vegetation in both native and agroecosystems. Evidence will be given, with the support of scientists having agricultural backgrounds, that the benefits from rising levels of atmospheric CO2 on agricultural productivity will likely outweigh the attendant presumed hazards of a still predictable global warming."

352. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95. 190.
"In some of the latest reports and projections on world food production and security, the rising levels of atmospheric CO2 as a contributing plant growth factor do not receive mention. The rising level of atmospheric CO2 is a universally free premium, gaining in magnitude with time, on which we all can reckon for the foreseeable future. Direct effects of increasing CO2 on food production and the output of rangelands and forests may be more important than the effects on climate."

,;

353. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 108.
"Moreover, the impact of the direct, mostly positive effects of the rising atmospheric CO2 on crop production has either been ignored or minimized in innumerable reports on projected catastrophic climate change. Nevertheless, where the positive effects of CO2 have been factored into climate change, they have offset some, if not all, of the unlikely projected deleterious effects of computer model projected climate change."

354. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, M1 St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 45.
"When higher temperatures are increased along with CO2 concentrations, the two act in opposition according to a mechanistic model for winter wheat. If the CO2 concentrations were doubled and daily weather from a typical year is used, grain yield was increased by 27%. When daily temperatures were increased by 3C and CO2 doubled, the more rapid development of the crop shortened the growing season, and the potential grain yield was only 15% greater, but maturity was shortened by 30 days. A combination of 4.5C and doubled CO2 resulted in the temperature and CO2 factors almost canceling out."

355. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 55.
"It is presumed that the beneficial effects of CO2 on crop yields may offset some, if not all, of the adverse climate effects."

356. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 97.
"This position is a complete departure from the results of hundreds of earlier studies and his own and other very recent reports. Virtually all authors that have considered or recognized the direct effects of CO2 have concluded that the impact on crops will be positive, and that CO2 can help ameliorate the environmental stresses or limitations of water, temperature, light, nutrients, salinity, and air pollutants. All these constraints have been observed to interact with elevated levels of atmospheric CO2."

357. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 188.
"CO2 is an essential component of the vital processes of photosynthesis upon which all life on earth ultimately depends. In view of the now highly questionable model predictions of a warmer and drier climate, not vindicated thus far by any real world records, the rising atmospheric levels of CO2 may well be a worldwide subsidy even if some warming occurs. Longer growing seasons and greater heat sums would be an asset for the productivity of most crops in temperate zone agriculture, where it is projected that the warming would most likely occur. where most of the world's food is now produced."

358. Henry Lindon (Staff), JRNL. OF COMMERCE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 6A.
"Moreover, it is still an open issue if moderate temperature increases and ecological impacts related to atmospheric CO2 enrichment would be beneficial or harmful. Paleoclimatic data, correlations between climate and human development and well-being over the last 10,000 years and the demonstrated positive impact of atmospheric CO2-enrichment on vegetation growth, suggest that doubling of pre-industrial CO2 concentrations poses no credible threat and, on balance, may yield major benefits."

359. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 98-9.
"With the current projections for a global warming, that presumably will accompany rising levels of CO2, it may be good fortune that there is a strong interaction between plant response to increased temperature and CO2 concentrations."

360. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 188-9.
"Many recent experiments strongly suggest that CO2 enrichments of the atmosphere engender greater plant survivability at high temperatures. Plant response to enriched CO2 will continue to increase at high temperatures."

361. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 6.
"Agricultural economists studying the relationship of higher temperatures and additional CO2 to crop yields in Canada, Australia, Japan, northern Russia, Finland, and Iceland found not only that a warmer climate would push up yields but also that the added boost from enriched CO2 would enhance output by 17 percent."

362. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 141.
"Studies show the warming could be very beneficial to food production, said Robert Pease, a climatologist at the University of California, Riverside."

363. Jonathan Marshall (Staff) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Jan. 27, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), El.
"Many scientists and economists now believe the United States and most of Europe may actually enjoy gains in farm production for decades if warming goes unchecked.. If they are right--and such findings come from mainstream experts, not the minority who question the likelihood of warming--Americans should be skeptical of calls for draconian controls on energy use to prevent catastrophe."

364. Thos. Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 24.
"As Ammerman and Cavalli-Sforza put it. "One of the few variables that would seem to be shared is timing: early experiments at plant domestication occurred in southwest Asia, east Asia, and Central America during the period between 8000 B.C. and 5500 B.C." The coincidence of the invention of agriculture with a general warming of the climate, an increase in rainfall, and a rise in carbon dioxide levels. all of which would have made plant growth more vigorous and more plentiful. cannot be accidental ."

365. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 19-20.
"For temperate zone agriculture, and in most all of the northern and southern hemispheres beyond the tropics, it may be expected, but not guaranteed, that a warmer climate will lead to an increase in the length or' the frost-free period, irrespective of altitude or latitude. This should also hold for agricultural enterprises in the mountainous areas of the tropics. The correlations between temperature and the length of the growing season also mean that with warming there will be a gradual shift northward of the northern boundary for such crops as winter wheat and corn in North America, Europe, and Asia."

366. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof, Horticulture, M1 St. U.). FOOD, CLIMATI-~. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 20.
"As little as a one degree increase in average temperature would not only lengthen the growing period by a week to 10 days. but if sustained over several seasons, could allow farmers who now grow just two crops a year to grow three or where one grew before. to now grow two."

367. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof;. Horticulture. MI St. U.), FOOD. CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 24.
"Assuming there is a modest global warming in temperate zone agriculture, heat sums above 10C at higher latitudes will increase for a given growing season. Budyko (1982) suggested that this may be as much as 1500C in what was the Soviet Union. If this were to occur. many of the areas for the production of the major food crops, such as corn, wheat. rice. and potatoes. could be greatly expanded northward. The base temperature for most of the major food crops is at. or slightly above. IOC.''

368. Thos. Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 5.
"A warmer climate would produce the greatest gain in temperatures at northern latitudes and much less change near the equator. Not only would this foster a longer growing season and open up a new territory for farming, but it would mitigate harsh weather. The contrast between the extreme cold near the poles and the warm moist atmosphere on the equator drives storms and much of the earth 's climate. This difference propels air flows; if the disparity is reduced, the strength of winds driven by equatorial highs and Arctic lows will be diminished."

369. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 48.
"If global temperature rises with increasing CO2, crop water use may actually increase. Any greenhouse warming, however, may alter cloudiness. wind movement, and humidity as well as temperature. If there is an increase in evaporation, or evapotranspiration, stream runoff will be reduced and there will be an increase in the demand for crop irrigation in areas now of marginal water supplies. There are, however, projections that mean global precipitation may increase by 7 to 15% with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 and other atmospheric trace gases."

370. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report, GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 152.
"Climate effects do not need to be damaging, however. Up to a certain level, increased CO2 concentrations may have a fertilizing effect on plants, leading to higher agricultural output. Changed rainfall or temperatures may m certain areas also help to boost agricultural output."

371. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover lnst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 149.
"Only if warmer weather caused more droughts or lowered agricultural output would even Third World countries suffer. Should the world warm, the hotter temperatures would enhance evaporation from the seas, producing more clouds and very likely more precipitation world-wide."

372. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 5.
'"Only if warmer weather caused more droughts or lowered agricultural output would even Third World countries suffer. Should the world warm--and there is little evidence or theory to support such a prognostication--the hotter temperatures would enhance evaporation from the seas, producing more clouds and more precipitation worldwide. Although some areas might become drier, others would become wetter. Judging from history, Western Europe would retain plentiful rainfall, while North Africa and the Sahara might gain moisture. The Midwest of the United States might suffer from less precipitation and become more suitable for cattle grazing than farming. By contrast, the Southwest would likely become wetter and better for crops."

373. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 57.
"Although some climate models indicate that a rise in world temperatures traceable to greenhouse warming would boost tropical temperatures, past evidence and simple physics suggest otherwise. Ocean evaporation in the equatorial zones would buffer temperature increases and keep water temperatures below eighty-six degrees Fahrenheit."

374. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 47.
"It would appear logical to conclude that the risk of frost and freezing temperature worldwide would be lessened under any global warming that might be induced by elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases."

375. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95.46.
"Untimely frosts are a climatic hazard for crop production extending from the arctics to the tropics. They can cause widespread destruction of high value as well as staple crops in temperate zones in the spring and in the fall, and even during summer in the cooler regions."

376. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 46.
"It is reasonable that a warmer climate will head to an increase in the length of the frost-free period. It is suggested that raising the temperature by only 0.6C would extend the frost-free growing season in the U.S. corn belt by 2 weeks. Conversely, lowering the average global temperature by less than 1C would be associated with June frosts and earlier killing frosts in autumn, with widespread crop losses."

377. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,301.
"But mild warming is probably in society's interest, particularly if present trends hold and the warming comes in wintertime or on summer nights. No one contends that the warming of the past century has done the slightest harm. The prime results of that mild warming, higher crop yields and lower energy consumption, are powerful pluses."

378. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 46.
"A recent report pertinent to lengths of growing seasons states that although global average temperatures have been increasing, the warming has been primarily due to nighttime rather than daytime temperature increases, appearing as a decrease in the day-night temperature difference over land for the past 40 years.'

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379. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 8-9.
"Recently published scientific papers have argued that the effects of global warming to date have been relatively benign. These papers argue that the warming has increased nighttime temperature lows rather than daytime highs, and that, in the northern hemisphere, the warming is occurring primarily in winter and spring with summer temperatures no warmer than were present in the 1860s and 1870s. In addition, the increased cloud cover causing the nighttime warming and daytime cooling is probably caused by the warming itself and so is likely to moderate a warming effect by keeping daytime temperatures lower."

380. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 40.
"A series of very recent reports reveals that although the global average temperature has been increasing, perhaps by 0.5C during the past 100 years, warming has been primarily due to nighttime rather than daytime temperature increases, appearing as a decrease in the day-night temperature differences over land."

381. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps lnst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 127.
"There is another, somewhat more subtle, example of the difficulty in achieving a proper mitigating action. One of the odd and previously unnoted features of the 0.5 degree rise in surface temperatures in the last one hundred years is that the rise has been manifested in the night time temperature averages for part of the record and part of the globe. The day time temperature averages show no change. The GMC models do not show this effect." [Emphasis in original]

382. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps lnst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 118.
"While the average global temperature may vary by only a small amount, alterations in certain aspects of regional climates may be appreciable. Unfortunately, current models of climate change rarely yield consistent results in this area. Over the past 10 years, researchers have also learned that the global increase of 0.6 degree Celsius recorded during the past 100 years is attributable largely to a shift in nighttime temperatures. The fluctuation of daytime temperatures has been minimal."

383. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 5-6.
"As a result of more evaporation from the oceans, a warmer climate should intensify cloudiness. More cloud cover will moderate daytime temperatures while acting at night as an insulating blanket to retain heat. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found exactly this pattern both for the last forty years, indeed. for the whole of the twentieth century. For the Northern Hemisphere in summer months. daytime high temperatures have actually fallen, but in the fall, winter, and spring, both the maximum and especially the minimum temperatures (nighttime) have climbed."

384. Thomas Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16. 95, 150.
"Warmer nighttime temperatures, particularly in the spring and fall, create longer growing seasons, which should enhance agricultural productivity. Moreover, the enrichment of the atmosphere with CO2 will fertilize plants and make for more vigorous growth. Agricultural economists studying the relationship of higher temperatures and additional CO2 to crop yields in Canada, Australia, Japan, northern Russia, Finland, and Iceland found not only that a warmer climate would push up yields, but also that the added boost from enriched CO2 would enhance output by 17 percent. Researchers have attributed a burgeoning of forests in Europe to the increased CO2 and the fertilizing effect of nitrogen oxides."

385. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 100-1.
"Although we rarely hear about greenhouse benefits, it is clear that nighttime warming would lengthen growing seasons, and the lack of warming during the daytime would not force upward potential evaporation rates that could cause an increase in droughts. More clouds and more rain should generally increase soil moisture levels and alleviate moisture stress to plants."

386. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir- Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING. 96, 111
"If  the warming takes place during the night, as some have suggested, then evaporation will be less of a factor and droughts will become less frequent.  As the growth of plants is inhibited by cold nights, the growing season will be longer with the onset of milder nights."

387. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 56.
"Second, are the timings and locations of the projected warming. The models have projected that most of the warming will occur in the high latitude winter, which presumes most of the warming to be at night. This would reduce or prevent deleterious temperature effects and would lengthen the growing seasons."

388. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lnst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 6.
"Warmer nighttime temperatures, particularly in the spring and fall, create longer growing seasons, which should enhance agricultural productivity. Moreover, the enrichment of the atmosphere with CO2 will fertilize plants and make for more vigorous growth."

389. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 99.
"In many respects, the decrease in the diurnal temperature range could be beneficial to a substantial portion of the global ecosystem. It should be clear that the timing of any temperature change (day versus night) is critical in assessing the impact of the change on other elements of the ecosystem ."

390. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture. MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 10.
"Extremes in weather, rather than averages, affect agriculture. Crops and livestock are sensitive to weather over relatively short periods of time, and annual averages do not convey short-term differences. Interannual variabilities have a far greater impact on agricultural productivity than does any current climate change. There is no evidence that with projected climate change, there will be increases in interannual variabilities."

391. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, M1 St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 9.
"The central focus of this review is that adaptations using modern tools plus new farm technologies, an improved photosynthetic capacity, and water use efficiency of plants from more CO2, coupled with favorable government programs, will ensure the continued integrity of agriculture and forestry irrespective of any variability in climate in meeting the food and fiber needs of an expanding population during the 21st century and beyond."

392. Jonathan Marshall (Staff) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON.. Jan. 27, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), E I.
"Even without that benefit, warming would be relatively benign because farmers can change the timing of crop plantings, switch to more drought-resistant varieties and use more effective pest-management practices, said William Easterling a geographer at the University of Nebraska and director of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change at the University of California at Davis."

393. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 15.
"Conversely, it could be argued that fur agricultural food production we have become less vulnerable to climate through the adaptations of irrigation, protected cultivation and housing for crops and livestock. shelter belts, genetic improvements for greater climatic resiliency. improved cultural practices, and the direct positive effects of rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the enhancement of photosynthesis and water use efficiency."

394. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 166.
"Farming has always been sensitive to weather. Farmers can adapt quickly to any likely rate of greenhouse warming. Countries such as the United States, Russia, China, Australia Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and India have many climate zones and active and aggressive agricultural research programs. They could adapt quickly to any greenhouse warming."

395. Thomas Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover lnst-) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 150.
"The United States Department of Agriculture in a cautious report reviewed the likely influence of global warming on crop production and world food prices.  The study, which assumed that farmers fail to make any adjustment to mitigate the effects of warmer, wetter, or drier weather - such as substituting new varieties or alternative crops, increasing or decreasing irrigation - concludes that: 'The overall effect on the world and domestic economies would be small as reduced population in some areas would be balanced by gains in other, according to an economic model of the effects of climate change on world agricultural markets."

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396. Thos. Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95. 6-7.
"The model... estimates a slight increase in world output and a decline in commodity prices under moderate climate change conditions."' [Emphasis in original] [Ellipsis in original]

397. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOX1DE, 95, 180.
"We assume that a global change in temperature and moisture levels may not be harmful and that a degree or two higher temperature, accompanied by slight precipitation increases, might be more beneficial than destructive. Also, that the present climate of the earth is not ideal and might be improved."

398. XINHUA NEWS AGENCY, June 18, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/1/97), I.
"There is neither evidence that global warming is a serious problem and nor truly cause to worry that emissions of waste industrial gases that trap heat like carbon dioxide could disrupt the world's climate, said an American scientist. The conclusion was drawn by Dr. Richard S. Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who was known because o f a reputation for brilliance that got him elected to the National Academy of Sciences at age 37. 'We don't have any evidence that this is a serious problem,' he was quoted by the New York Times today as saying flatly."

399. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gen.. lnt'l. Assn. fur the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter. 96-cf7, 52.
"The science funding agencies. in this period, also gave birth to computer climate modeling. That action buried the actual science of climate, based on study of the solar-astronomical cycles and their correlation with long-term climate changes. It was then, in the early 1970's. that ideology, and not science, began to drive so-called climate science. If a disaster scenario for global cooling might promote the use of more fossil fuels, and hence more industrialization and more population. another scenario would have to be found---equally scary but more directly blamable on human activity. The driving force, it seemed, was to get people to blame science/or environmental disasters. to use fewer resources, and to shrink the world population, particularly its brown. black, and yellow parts."

400. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.). BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 138.
"Indeed, Roy Spencer. a NASA Space Centre scientist in Huntsville. Alabama, takes it for granted that the need for funds influences scientific conclusions, saying that science 'benefits from some scary scenarios'. Hence a new phrase, similar to that of the over-zealous and recently privatized dentist. seemed to creep into the climatologist's vocabulary: the precautionary principle." [ Emphasis in original

401. Marsha Freeman (Assoc. Ed.) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH.. Spring, 95, 54.
"In an eye-opening presentation at the 45th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation in Jerusalem in October 1994. John E. Estes from the National Mapping Division of the U.S. Geological Survey demolished the idea that we have the information needed to make policy decisions regarding global climate change. Estes showed that different dam sets have discrepancies in values of as much as IO percent in basic categories of information needed to assess influences on world climate."

402. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 309.
"In Earth in the Balance, Gore waxes on at length about his associations with Revelle, from student days at Harvard, when he met the great researcher, to Revelle's appearances before congressional
subcommittee chaired by Gore in the House and Senate. It was, Revelle, Gore has said, who persuaded him that the greenhouse effect is a dire emergency.  Yet before his death in 1991, Revelle coauthored a paper that concludes, 'The scientific base for greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic action at this time. 'There is little risk in delaying policy responses."' [Emphasis in original]

403. Peter Guerrero (Dir. Envir. Protection, GAO) in t HSE HRNGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST Nov. 16. 95.9.
"Given the complexity of the climate processes that need to be incorporated in the models, scientists believe that significant reductions of the uncertainties in projecting changes and trends in the climate will require sustained efforts that are very likely to require a decade or more."

404. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 303.
"But can 'the very existence of scientific uncertainty' really be an argument for reform? After all there was, in the 1970s, a great deal of scientific uncertainty regarding that decade's fashionable notion that an ice age was beginning. Had Congress acted then in advance of scientific consensus, it might have legislated a crash program of increased carbon dioxide emissions." [Emphasis in original]

405. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 297.
"However, the main point to be drawn is that any quantification of the benefits of greenhouse gas build-up abatement, or preventative policy, is characterized by massive ignorance and uncertainty. Further research is unlikely to greatly reduce this uncertainty. It involves valuation as well as assessment of physical and biological impacts."

406. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. Sec. Gem, Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the Oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 53.
"So, we have speculation on top of speculation. Answers can come only when we know better than we do now the interactions, the fluxes, and the transports in the entire environmental system of the Earth. And, that's what research is all about."

407. Graham P. Chapman & Thackwray S. Driver (Prof. & Rsrch. Fellow, Geography, U. Lancaster, UK) in TIME SCALES & ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 259-60.
"There is one extrapolation which we can make with some degree of confidence: that the amount and quality of data available to modellers will increase, that their sophistication and complexity will increase, and that there will be fundamental conceptual changes in our modeling techniques."

408. Charles Petit (Staff in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., April 17, 95 {Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), A I.
"Like most climate experts, Michael MacCracken, an atmospheric scientist at the federal government's $1.8 billion Global Change Research Program, cautions that the jury is still out. 'There is an increasing amount of incriminating circumstantial evidence, such that one could likely get a civil conviction,' he said. 'But there is not yet enough to get a criminal conviction.' What is important, MacCracken said, is that the evidence continue to be gathered and evaluated."

409. David Montgomery (Charles River Assn., Wash., DC) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 80-1 .'
"There are three reasons why the strategy of letting emissions increase for a while and then bringing them down in the future is much less costly than a policy of adhering to a strict limit on emissions today. Basically, what we would be doing is allowing more time to manage the transition to lower carbon intensity, which would, in turn, lower the costs of mission reduction."

410. David Montgomery (Charles River Assn., Wash., DC) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 81.
"We could get 3.2 times as much emission reduction 20 years from now as we could today, simply by investing the resources elsewhere in the economy. We have to think about discounting future costs and comparing the costs today to the discounted present value of costs that we would incur tomorrow, all of which costs are likely to be lower than those involved with trying to take strong actions today, because those future actions will occur naturally as the capital stock toms over. And we will be able to take advantage of new technologies for fuel substitution that are not available today."

41 I. Jonathan Marshall (Staff) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Jan. 27, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), El.
"There are several reasons for delaying tougher measures: We'll be richer and thus better able to afford such measures later; we'll have better technology to apply to the problem; and we'll have a better idea of just how big the problem is."

412. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 96.
"Lester B. Lave from Carnegie-Mellon University, a strong supporter of using cost-benefit analysis in policy-making, argues that since the damage and the cost of global warming are at present impossible to determine, 'there is no way to justify spending tens of billions dollars a year' to prevent the greenhouse effect."

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413. David Montgomery (Charles River Assn., Wash., DC) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 77.
"The focus on low-cost or no-cost options also makes perfectly good sense in light of what we actually know about climate change. This go-slow approach is what the National Academy of Sciences recommended several years ago, given the difficulty of identifying or quantifying the economic damage from climate change. It would take convincing estimates of large future damages that could be avoided through climate policy to justify substantial near-term costs."

414. Fred Pearce (British Sci. Jrnlst.) in DISCOVERY & INNOVATION. Mar., 96, 4.
"The US government, in particular, is under strong pressure from an industry-funded 'no action' lobby, which has grown increasingly strong in the past year. It gained an important edge in January when a scientific paper co-authored by Tom Wigley, a leading IPCC climatologist, argued that it would be cheaper to delay investment to halt global warming until a new generation of clean energy technologies has been fully developed."

415. Combined DOC/NOAA, DOE, EPA, NASA, and NSF Report in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 194.
"This set of statements indicates that significant progress in understanding has been made over the past decade; however, there was agreement that, while progress will be occurring each year, it will require another decade and more of research to significantly improve confidence in the projected regional details of the anticipated changes."

416. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95. 102-3.
"As scientists lower their estimate of temperature rise for the next century, they also reduce the potential climate impact of any corrective policies. In a very recent and important study, scientists performed a numerical modeling study and concluded that it will take seventy to one hundred years to detect any climatic difference between the business-as-usual scenario and the most draconian measures proposed by the IPCC.'

417. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps lnst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16. 95. 122.
"With the short lifetime, however. short compared to this period of total consumption of fossil libel, the picture changes drastically. On one hand, any reasonable cutback in emissions would show correspondingly reasonable beneficial effects. On the other, there is reduced urgency for drastic action for if, in fact, adverse climate changes appear, action could be taken in the full expectation that the correction would also appear in reasonable time."

418. William Nierenberg (Dir. Emer., Scripps lnst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 117.
"From a policy standpoint, these findings raise two important issues. First, given these decay times, there may be no urgent need to take action to reduce emissions until the severity of the climate effects are either firmly predicted or clearly evident. If the climate-change 'signal' does emerge from the natural background fluctuations and is unfavorable, there is ample time at that point to take whatever remedial action including emissions controls, may be needed."

419. Robert E. Stevenson (Fmr. See. Gem, Int'l. Assn. for the Physical Sci. of the oceans) in 21ST CENTURY SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 52-53.
"By 1990, the increase, as measured by all stations, indicated that the CO2 content of the Earth 's atmosphere was about 23 percent higher than it had been in 1840. This 23 percent is an estimate, in reality, because in 1840 there were no reliable measurements of atmospheric CO2."

420. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 22.
"Natural processes such as volcanic eruptions and the decay of plants add around 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the air annually, while human activity, mainly power production, automobile use and the burning of forests, adds about seven billion tons. The global rate of increase in artificial carbon-dioxide emissions is at this writing running around one percent annually."

421. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 296.
"In contrast to the magnitude of the natural carbon cycle, human-caused carbon dioxide levels seem positively puny. Most artificial CO2 comes from combustion of fossil fuels; tropical forest clearing by fire is the other important source. Artificial CO2 emissions are currently seven to eight billion tons annually. This means that natural carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere today out numbers the artificial variety about 29 to one."

422. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 22.
"On closer inspection human greenhouse activity is far from a level that nature would find impressive. Although the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere has increased through the last century, the air contained only a tiny fraction of this gas when the increase began--about 290 parts per million about 100 years ago versus about 350 parts per million today."

423. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 22-3.
"Let's perform some simple manipulation of those numbers. Carbon dioxide constitutes roughly one percent of the full greenhouse effect, with the human-caused component of the carbon dioxide cycle at roughly four percent and the rate of artificial carbon dioxide increase around one percent annually. This works out to the human impact on the greenhouse effect being roughly 0.04 percent of the total annual effect. That is, 99.96 percent of global warming is caused by nature, 0.04 percent is caused by people."

424. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 111.
"Here, then, is the little defect in McKibben's contention that greenhouse emissions caused by humanity are antithetical to nature: The condition those gases has generated is so far much less pronounced than greenhouse conditions nature previously made of its own accord."

425. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 145.
"For example if the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide is considered a pollutant, as environmentalists say it should be, then nature emits an estimated 200 billion tons of this pollutant annually. versus a human-caused emission total of about seven billion tons per year. Nature makes huge quantities of the precursor chemicals for acid rain. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo alone released an estimated 60 percent more sulfur dioxide. the primary cause of acid rain, than all United States emissions that year."

426. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 23.
"People assume that the twentieth-century increase in artificial carbon dioxide emissions has an overwhelming impact on nature. From nature's way of thinking the impact may still be so minor it is difficult to detect."

427. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 203.
"Indications that termites emit more carbon dioxide than the combustion of fossil fuels suggest than vigilance need not yield to panic right away."

428. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 5.
"It will be impossible for surface gases alone to determine changing temperatures, except over millions of years. Climatologists. when referring to 'global warming', are in danger of making un-climatological statements." [Emphasis in original]

429. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 13.
"In as mathematically imprecise a science as meteorology the quality of the data depends on good maintenance of the instruments and the skills of the operator. Mick Jones and Tom Wigley of CRU say that computer models predict that changes in the radiation balance caused by greenhouse gases equals about 1 per cent of the luminosity of the Sun, but even they admit the warming that has allegedly occurred reflects uncertainties due to lack of understanding of natural countervailing trends. But Richard Lindzen says that greenhouse gases emit as much radiation as they absorb depending
on their position in the atmosphere."

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430. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 4-5.
"While there has been a rise in the average surface temperature of the Earth over the past century, a causal link with the buildup of greenhouse gases and the temperature rise has not been proved beyond doubt. Thus, distinguishing natural warming from warming attributed to an enhanced greenhouse effect is a problem Climatologists must cope with."

431. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 38.
"There has, after all, according to the IPCC report, been a 50 percent increase in CO2 since the industrial revolution, and a further 40 percent increase over the past 100 years. Surely the global temperature should have gone up by much more than the one or a half degree often reported? As it hasn't, why worry about its exponential nature? Furthermore computer models showing hypothetical further doublings of CO2 to 600 ppm from six different research institutes range from less than 2C to more than 5C2. It is hence clear that the models do not come up with similar data. and there is no exact mathematical relationship between atmospheric temperatures and CO2 concentrations, something we have already learned from out prehistoric examples."

432. Joseph LaPalombara (Prof., Pol. Sci.. Yale U.) in NEW FORCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, 96, 36-7.
"Although there is strong evidence linking temperature and CO2 changes, the cause and effect has not only not been demonstrated, but it is not clear which is the cause and which is the effect. The lack of a definitive relationship may also be obscured by changes in other factors that affect the earth's heat budget, such as increased atmospheric aerosols or cloud cover as well as natural climatic cycles."

433. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U,), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 36.
"There is no evidence that past climate changes, including those of the last decades, are related to changes in CO2 in the atmosphere, with the possible exception of warmer nights in certain parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Our present knowledge of the climatic effects of the changing CO2 content and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is totally inadequate as a basis fur initiating any global attempt to change the climate."

434. John Horel (Prof. Meteorology, U. UT) et al. in GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE, 97, 7-8.
"There is some controversy as to whether the record shown in Figure 1.5 constitutes evidence of global warming. We could try to convince ourselves that it does by redrawing the figure with the time axis compressed. Such a figure is shown in the appendix as Figure A.2. The sharp rise in the first part of the century, which resumes in the 1980s, would then look a lot more threatening. Even so, the record definitely lacks the quality of inexorable rise that has characterized the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Global warming in response to rising carbon dioxide, if any, has occurred in a most irregular fashion."

435. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 28.
"What is important in all this fur the present warming debate is that temperatures seem to be a disconnected variable, perhaps because prehistoric episodes of warming and cooling had something to do with geophysical events, or the sun itself. Late in 1994 Paul Valdes and Brian Sellwood repeated in a letter to New Scientist that any warming in the Cretaceous was 'almost certainly' not only the result of CO2, and that 'CO2 is not the only factor that affected climates in the distant geological past."' [Emphasis in original]

436. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 97.
"Scientists can observe that that carbon dioxide has a warming potential because it can trap and deflect heat arising from the surface of the Earth. But this observation is derived from laboratory experiments with the carbon atom rather than from direct 'happenings' in the external world. like feeling warm on a sunny day. In this sense CO2 warming is rather like reading off a setting on a voltmeter or pressure gauge. Thus, the sensory impression of warmth out of doors works against the carbon dioxide

437. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 97.
"Next, the theory 0fcarbon dioxide warming can be formulated into empirical laws which decree that solid planets with elements of carbon in their atmospheres will be warmer than those without them. But it is when carbon dioxide is put into the second part of the equation, concerning laws 0fnature and theories, that it reveals inadequacies."

438. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE 0FTHE PLANET, 95, 91.
"To begin. we can examine the timing of the warming over the past 113 years 0frec0rd. While the amount 0fwarming from 1881 to 1993 is 0.54C, the warming during the first half of the record is 0.37C. Nearly 70 percent of the warming of the entire time period occurred in the first half of the record; the bulk of the greenhouse gas buildup clearly occurred in the second half of the record. Much of the warming of the past century preceded the large increase in greenhouse gas concentrations."

439. Robert Bailing (Prof.. Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 84.
"The amount of warming from 1881 to 1993 is 0.54C. Nearly 70 percent of the warming of the entire time period--0.37C---occurred in the first half of the record--before the period of the greatest buildup of greenhouse gases."

440. Karl Turekian (Prof. Geophysics, Yale U.) in GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 83.
"The difficulty in making a simple correlation is that although the C02 in the atmosphere has been increasing continuously since 1870, the trend of the temperature of the planet's surface has actually had reversals, most markedly in the two decades between 1940 and 1960."

441. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 69.
"Andrew R. Solow, a statistician at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, argued that: 'The current warming started before the greenhouse effect could have begun. If the greenhouse effect had begun during the course of the data, then we would see the warming accelerate. No acceleration appears in the dam. The current warming is consistent with a mild post-glacial period, probably the aftermath of the so-called 'little ice age' that ended during the nineteenth century."

442. Thos. Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95, 3.
"Studies of carbon (CO and CO2) in the atmosphere show that at times in the last eight thousand years the level has been substantially higher than it is today and greater than it is likely to reach any time soon. Although fluctuations in CO2 correlate with climate shifts, the record cannot distinguish whether they followed the temperature changes or preceded them ."

443. Thomas Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover Inst.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 147-8.
"The evidence supporting the claim that the earth has grown warmer is shaky; the theory is weak; and the models on which the conclusions are based cannot even replicate the current climate."

444. Org. for Eco. Cooperation & Devel. Report, GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 150.
"If atmospheric concentrations of GHGs change, climate is likely to change.  The relation is far from fully understood, however.  A first problem arises from the fact that it is difficult to determine whether climate is actually changing as a result of changes in GHG concentrations.  The climate has a high rate of natural variability over short to medium-term periods.  Exogenous shocks, for instance, volcanic eruptions, can create further instability for the climate system."

445. Herbert Guysky (Naval Rsrch. Lab, Wash., D.C.) in PLASMA SCI. & THE ENVIR., 96, 7.
"Clearly, the current levels of greenhouse gases are substantially higher than anything the Earth has experienced.  Simplistically, this could mean the Earth will be subject to major climate chases, but it is hard to believe that the current CO2 increase will translate into the kind of direct increase in temperature witnessed in the past.  It may have been that in the past it was the temperature changes that induced the observed changes in CO2."

446. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 99-100.
"Causation, of course, must not be confused with correlation and explanation. Indeed statistical correlation in regard to changing weather patterns are fraught with hazards."

447. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 99.
"Prediction sometimes rests on causation: things happen because of clearly defined antecedent factors. Unfortunately not all laws are causal, and might not actually be required to be so. The apparent insistence on cause-and-effect reasoning might be a subconscious tendency of humans to recreate a meaningful world where causes always precede effects, even if they are accidental or unexpected."

448. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 44-45.
"Added to this complexity is the fact that the absorption bands are stretched almost to their limits, so doubling the CO2 is not going to increase the absorption of IR radiation to anything like the extent imagined. Hence any continued 'global warming' is more likely to be caused by gases with absorption capacities functioning at other wavelengths."

449. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 43.
"However, some scientists suggest that the modest warming caused by C02 in turn releases more vapor--the typical positive feedback. Yet such a feedback in truth, would be ineffectual compared to the effect of powerful solar heat and high pressure weather systems. Even doubling the amount of CO2 would only increase the amount of heat trapped by an average of four watts per square meter, whereas the entire globe radiates 390 watts."

450. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 44.
"True, CO2 is an efficient heat absorber, but only at two narrow wavelengths. The carbon-oxygen bonds of CO2 interact only with photons of IR light of exactly the right vibrationary frequency, and it is the vibration that bounces back the heat into space. The IR spectrum spans the EM wavelength from around one to 40 micrometers (millionths of a meter). CO2 absorbs wavelengths at two narrow micrometer zones. Furthermore the way they do this depends on their position in the atmosphere. It is highly complex process, because the effect of an increase in any one is dependent upon all the other." [Emphasis in original]

45 I. William Meyer (Rsrch. Faculty, Clark U.), HUMAN IMPACT ON THE EAR'FH, 96, 207.
"Not only CO2 and water vapor. but tropospheric ozone, nitrous oxide, methane, and CFCs are now known to act as greenhouse gases. Indeed, the last two, though present in much smaller concentrations than carbon dioxide is, absorb radiation far more efficiently, molecule for molecule. Though still the most important single gas among those influenced by human action (water vapor being the most important of all),.CO2 no longer accounts for more than half of the predicted anthropogenic trace-gas impact on temperatures."

452. Hugh W. Ellsaesser (Atmospheric Sci., Lawrence Livermore Nat'l. Lab) in 21ST CENT. SCI. & TECH., Summer, 95, 58.
"Most discussions of greenhouse warming begin with at least the implication that the Earth's climate and atmosphere existed in natural, unchanging states before man intervened; that is, until the preindustrial era, circa 1850.  In reality, the annually and globally averaged surface temperature is believed to have cooled some 5 to IOC (9 to 18 F) since the time of. the dinosaur, approximately 100 million years before the present."

453. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci-), BEYO)ND THE WARMING, 96, 137.
"Richard Alley, a geo-scientist at Pennsylvania Sate University, reminded us as recently as March 1995 that until the end of the last Ice Age the Greenland ice sheet showed that climate often changed rapidly from one stable state to another, with the temperature varying by as much as 7C. Alley warns against assuming that rapid 'flips' are a thing of the past. The cores show that just 8,200 years ago there was a sudden cooling of' about 4C, which lasted about 200 years."


455. INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, May, 95, 362.
"Recent developments do indeed bolster the theory that greenhouse gases have reset Earth's climate dial. But scientists acknowledge that uncertainties continue to plague studies aimed at detecting the human fingerprint in climate change--a distinctive change attributable only to human activities. Proof remains elusive."

456. Daniel Jones (Envir. Staff), HARTFORD COURANT, Nov. 21, 95 (Online, Nexis. 4/1/97), El.
"Some scientists still don't view the findings as meaningful. They say it is hardly surprising that human beings are having an effect on the global environment. 'Most scientists who have looked at this will say, 'Yes, you can see signals.' The real problem is why are they so small? They're tiny, they're minuscule,' said Patrick Michaels, a climatologist at the University of Virginia who edits a climate-change newsletter funded by a fuel supplier to utilities. 'It is obvious that this story is blown out of proportion,' he said."

457. Thomas Moore (Sr. Fellow, Hoover lust.) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 166.
"Whether the climate will warm is far from certain; that it will change is unquestionable. The weather has changed in the past and will no doubt continue to vary in the future. Human activity is likely to play only a small and uncertain role in climate change. The burning of fossil fuel may generate an enhanced greenhouse effect or the release into the atmosphere of particulates may cause cooling. It may also be simply hubris to believe that Homo Sapiens can affect significantly temperatures, rainfall and winds."

458. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 289.
"In the late 1980s two credentialed scientists, Robert Jastrow of Dartmouth College and William Nierenberg, president emeritus of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, began to argue that the newly discovered solar variations explain temperature trends. Temperatures have been up a little because the sun throttled up a little, they suggested; temperatures will fall a little when the sun throttles down. This idea, dubbed the 'solar fix,' had considerable influence on the Bush White House. Doomsayers were beside themselves about the solar fix, as it would void most human culpability.'

459. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 289.
"Attempting to cross-check findings of moderate variability in Sol, Earth's sun, in the 1980s astronomers turned their instruments on other nearby stars about the same size, color, and age. Findings from this research so far are equivocal. Some astronomers think that nearby sunlike stars exhibit no more than the 0. I percent annual variation noted by Lean. But Richard Radick, an astronomer at the Phillips Laboratory, who has been observing 33 sunlike stars for a decade, thinks they exhibit short-term luminosity variations up to 0.3 percent annually. This would be sufficient to overturn many assumptions of greenhouse GCMs, which treat incoming energy levels from SOL as invariant."

460. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 7-8.
"Further, the George C. Marshall Institute, a privately funded and highly influential foundation based in Washington, and a highly influential group responsible, in park for shaping President Bush's dissenting views on the greenhouse effect at the time international conferences were debating the subject, said they saw no evidence of a recent anthropogenic greenhouse effect, putting the blame on solar factors. The Institute pointed out that there should be a greater rise than 0.4C during the 20th century if anthropogenic warming were to blame."

461. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 289.
"Indications are that Earth's star is not entirely constant. Since the late 1970s the sun's production has varied about 0. 1 percent annually, says Judith Lean, an astronomer at the Naval Research Laboratory. One-tenth of a percent may not sound like much, but it represents roughly the same range of annual climate energy variations assumed by most greenhouse models."

462. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,290.
"Since 1992 Sallie Baliunas, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, has compiled extensive evidence suggesting a closer link between solar activity and observed temperature trends than between those trends and greenhouse gas emissions. Baliunas told a congressional committee in 1994, 'If not caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases, then what changes the Earth's climate? There is evidence the sun does."'

463. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 122-3.
"Nowadays the concern about the significance of sunspots might well imply that the solar deism of the ancients has merely donned a more reasoned, scientific, persona. A growing number of scientists, and many amateurs, think they have detected virtually indisputable correlations between sunspots and climate. Robert Jastrow, an astrophysicist at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, said solar activity had been 'low' in the 13th, 15th, 17th and 18th centuries and that if correlations with the past persist the 2Ist century will be a cool one. Jastrow, like others, believes that the present century has shown no clear trend, but its checkered climatic career nevertheless has something to do with sunspots." [Emphasis in original]

464. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 123.
"Sunspot theorists say the t~m3ous half-a-degree rise in the temperature this century may have something to do with a fluctuating sun. It probably also accounts for the cooling from between 1940 and 1970 which science writer Nigel Calder reminds us makes no sense at all in regard to the greenhouse warming argument. Michael Schlesinger of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign also says that if part of the warming this century has been due to changes in solar activity. then 'the additional greenhouse effect may be weaker than was previously thought' ."

465. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96,124.
"At Armagh Observatory the records of air temperature go back to the end of the 18th century, and the sunspot data go back before the Industrial Revolution. Together they virtually account for all of the climate's vagaries, as well as the short-lived effects of volcanoes. These findings were confirmed at the European and National Astronomy meeting in Edinburgh in April 1994. One speaker said he found a close correlation between temperatures measured at Armagh since 1795 and the length of the sunspot cycle."

466. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.). BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 127.
"Generally speaking, there is a fairly clear-cut common-sense relationship between brightness and solar activity. The satellite Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) proved this in 1988. Between late 1980 (just after the peak of the last solar cycle) and mid 1985 solar activity declined, and coincided with a steady decrease in the sun's luminosity. According to the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory at Harwell. Oxfordshire, 1990 was a maximum year for sunspot activity, and this too coincided with a warm summer in Britain."

467. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.). BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 130.
"Sunspots do seem to coincide with periods of global warming wherever Earth's field has weakened, or is not particularly pronounced, or has drifted somehow out of alignment."

468. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 134.
"The warming scenario was a 1980s message, and times have moved on since then. Many Climatologists of all persuasions are saying openly that we need to focus more on the behavior of the sun in all future discussions about the climate. David Rind of the Goddard Space Institute admits that our 'ignorance is almost total' in regard to the way the sun affects Earth's climate. To try to remedy this the Upper Atmosphere Research satellite was launched in September 1991. and is to be backed up in 1998 by the Earth Observing System satellite which will detect how the 'solar constant' changes over time."

469. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 95.
"Recently two researchers have found that the length of the solar sunspot cycle's related strongly to the fluctuations in temperatures on the earth. Although the physical mechanism responsible for the linkage remains elusive, it is noteworthy that over 75 percent of the observed global warming in this century can be statistically explained by the variations in the length of the solar sunspot cycle."

470. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 101.
"One factor which betrays an inevitable lack of rigour is the bias towards land-based instruments. Weather stations take some 60,000 measurements a day, but the type of site chosen is not evenly distributed over the globe. More sites are to be found in populated areas, and in the northern hemisphere, while the two-thirds of Earth's surface covered with seas is virtually unrepresented. Most weather stations are found in or near cities. Robert Bailing, a climatologist at Arizona State University, has found an urban warming bias in excess of 0.SC."

471. Robert Bailing (Prof., Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 93.
"The potential impact on the temperature record caused by the urban heat island effect represents a major contaminant to many of the temperature records."

472. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 101.
"The reason for this phenomenon can be explained with the aid of some simple physics. Different surface materials have varying levels of heat conductivity. Spongy, frequently moist, arable soils generally have a low rate of heat conductivity, and a higher rate of light reflectivity. In addition the superstructure of city buildings and pavements, the tarmacadamed roads and concrete walls, act as a giant thermostat, soaking up the sunlight and retaining the heat of the day .'

473. Robert Bailing (Prof, Geography, AZ St. U.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 93-4.
"The urban effect creates a localized warming signal that is not representative of the surrounding area."

474. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof.. Horticulture. Ml St. U.). FOOD. CLIMATE. & CARBON DIOXIDE. 95, 44.
"In the usual scenario of rapid warming, it is projected that trees will not be able to move as fast as the climate. Such a conclusion, as Ausubel points out, must be assessed in the context of other changes. some climatic, likely to occur in a similar time frame. the heat islands around major cities of the world is one. A recent comparison of summer temperatures in Atlanta and a nearby rural weather station showed that Atlanta temperatures increased between 1974 and 1988 by 2C.'

475. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, Ml St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 41.
"If the heat island effect is eliminated by noninclusion of weather stations in cities and airports, there has been no temperature change in the lower 48 states of the United States during the past 100 years."

476. Antony Milne (Fmr. Rsrch. Fellow, Envir. Sci.), BEYOND THE WARMING, 96, 7.
"Keith Shine of the University of Reading says there was a 0.2C warming during the 1980s, but this is surely within a natural range of error, and would in any event be difficult to attribute to a carbon dioxide warming. 'Hence', he says, 'many scientists use the double negative 'not inconsistent' to describe the link between observed temperature trends and changes in CO2. In other words they say it 'might be'."

477. Deroy Murdock (Staff) TAMPA TRIB., (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 6.
"In a new book titled 'The Global Warming Debate: the Report of the European Science and Environment Forum,' a pan-Atlantic panel of 27 researchers has poured an ice bucket on the notion of a planet aboil in greenhouse gases. As the authors note, Earth appears to be undergoing a slight overall warming trend. Mean global temperatures have risen 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit since 1920. Nonetheless, warming and cooling wends have seesawed for thousands of years and may stem from shifting ocean currents and solar radiation as much as anything else."

65

478. Ross Gelbspan (Staff) in HARPER'S, Dec. 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 31.
"Researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, examining deep ocean sediment and ice core samples, found that these shifts, with their temperature changes of up to 7 degrees C, have occurred within three to four decades--a virtual nanosecond in geological time. Over the last 70,000 years, the earth's climate has snapped into radically different temperature regimes. 'Our results suggest that the present climate system is very delicately poised,' said researcher Scott Lehman. 'Shifts could happen very rapidly if conditions are right, and we cannot predict when that will occur.'"

479. Robert White (Fmr. Chief, U.S. Weather Bureau) in ISSUES IN SCI. & TECH., Fall, 96, 34.
"Until now, there has been a reluctance on the part of the scientific community to claim that the temperature rise observed over the past century is due in part to human activity. The prevailing view has been that the observed global surface temperature rise was within the limits of natural climate variability."

480. Thos. Moore (St. Fellow, Hoover Inst.), GLOBAL WARMING, 95. 53.
"Whether the climate will warm is far from certain; that it will change is unquestionable. The weather has changed in the past and will no doubt continue to vary in the future. Human activity is likely to play only a small and uncertain role in climate change."

481. Jonathan Adler (Staff, Competitive Enterprise Inst.) et al. in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 443.
"The United States has witnessed a tremendous improvement in air quality over the past two decades. Emissions of most regulated air pollutants are down, as are atmospheric concentrations. The vast majority of cities monitored by the Environmental Protection Agency meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for carbon monoxide. nitrogen oxides, ozone, particulate matter, and sulfur oxides. which were established by the federal government to ensure that all cities in the United States surpass a set level of air quality. (All of the following graphs show this standard.)"

482. Kay Jones (Staff. Zephyr Consulting) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9, 95, 86.
"If we examine the trends in the 4 most highly impacted cities in the NE. i.e., the Wash. DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York metropolitan areas, the raw improvement in air quality is almost 60% in the reduction of days above the standard since 1985. If we adjust for the year to year temperature influence, the true improvement is an 80% reduction."

483. Kay Jones (Staff. Zephyr Consulting) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS. Nov. 9, 95, 86.
"Except for Houston, there are no urban a outside of California that would be classified as 'Severe' or 'Serious' based on 1992/93/94 data. Most would be classified as 'Marginal' with only 5 in the 'Moderate' category."

484. Kay Jones (Staff, Zephyr Consulting) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9. 95, 86.
"Among all U.S. urban areas outside of California there have been no more than 140 total days (among the worst case monitors) above the ozone standard. By contract, L.A. alone experiences over 100 days/year at its worst case monitor. The next highest cities outside of California were Houston with 14 exceedance days and Philadelphia with 9 exceedance days in one year. In 1988 there were over 600 days above the standard nationwide (again, outside of California. )"

485. Kay Jones (Staff, Zephyr Consulting) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9, 95, 85.
"There are less than 20 urban areas out of the 87 originally designated nonattainment areas outside of California that would be classified in air quality nonattainment today, based on 1992/93/94 data. Despite the hype, you may have heard or will hear, the inclusion of the 1995 data does not significantly change the good news picture."

486. Mary Nichols (Asst. Admin., EPA) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9, 95, 125.
"Dramatic improvements have been achieved for other pollutants, as well. When the 1990 Amendments were signed into law. there were 98 areas of the country that were designated as nonattainment for ground-level ozone. Through 1994. 55 of those areas have met the ozone standard. EPA has formally 'reclassified' 22 of those areas as attainment."

487. Mary Nichols (Asst. Admin., EPA) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9, 95, 124.
"Since the Clean Air Act was first passed in 1970, combined emissions of the six common pollutants have been cut by 24%. Of the six, only emissions of nitrogen oxides have increased over that period. During that same 25-year period, the U.S. population grew by 27 percent, the domestic economy grew by 90 percent and the number of vehicle miles traveled grew by 111 percent."

488. Indur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 358.
"Data on traditional air pollutants in the United States from 1900 to 1992 indicate the following: Except for Nox, these emissions grew at a much slower rate than population, and a much slower rate than GN or GNP per capital. SO2, VOC, and Nox emissions grew by 128 percent, 193 percent. and 787 percent. respectively, while population increased by 235 percent and the GNP (in constant dollars) by 1,489 percent. The best news is that between 1940 and 1992, CO and PM-10 emissions declined 4 percent and 62 percent, respectively."

489. Indur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 358-9.
"For the most obvious pollutants, cleanup started before the 1970 Clean Air Act's provisions became effective. based on trends in emissions per capita. SO2 emissions per capita peaked around 1920. There was a dip on the 1930s probably due to the depression. another peak in 1945 due to the war effort and a smaller one around t970. It is now down 60 percent from its peak. Both PM-10 and CO emissions per capita have been declining more or less continuously since World War 11."

490. Ronald Bailey (Contrib. Ed., Reason Mag.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95.3.
"A final problem with the first wave has been its priorities. For many pollutants, the industrialized countries have reached the point that Supreme Court justice Stephen Breyer calls the 'problem of the last 10%.' We have taken care of the first 90 percent of the pollutants, but cleaning up the last 10 percent is exceedingly difficult and expensive. It is at this point of diminishing returns that we must consider whether devoting resources to cleaning up the last 10 percent is better for the natural environment than directing those resources to other problems."

491. 491. Indur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 358.
"Key emissions that have risen in recent years have all peaked and are now declining on a per capita basis. in conformance with the notion of an environmental transition."

492. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 183.
"National levels of PM 10 in the air have declined by about 26 percent since 1975; today most cities rarely violate the federal standard for this pollutant, though some researchers have begun to believe the federal standards for PM 10 should be lowered. as new research suggests even low levels of fine soot in the air can cause premature deaths among those with asthma."

493. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl.), BREATH-TAKING {Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl. Report), May, 96, 106.
"Clean up of these emissions sources has translated into improvements in air quality. Based on an EPA analysis of 800 monitoring sites, PM 10 concentrations in the air have declined in most regions of the country. Annual mean PM10 concentrations have declined by 20 percent on average, over the six year period from 1988 to 1994. There was no change in concentrations between 1993 and 1994.

494. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 56.
"Emissions of total suspended particulates (TSPs) peaked around 1950, declined steadily until 1980 (primarily as a result of increased use of cleaner fuels and controls placed on fuel burning), and have remained relatively stable since then. Monitoring of fine particulates began only in about 1985.

495. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 69.
"Ambient suspended particulate matter, which is tiny fragments of liquid or solid matter floating in the air, has decreased 20 percent from the early 1970s into the mid-1980s, according to EPA measurements. These decreases were due in part to a reduction of industrial activities in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and the installation of pollution control equipment."

496. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl.), BREATH-TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl. Report), May, 96, 16.
"Archer compared age-adjusted death rates in Utah County with death rates in two other counties, and estimated that 30-40 percent of deaths from lung cancer and other respiratory diseases in Utah County may be attributable to air pollution. This amounts to about 5-6 percent of total deaths. However, Blindauer, et al. reported that the difference in death rates may be explained by differences in smoking rather than by air pollution.

497. Russ Banham (Staff) JRNL. OF COMMERCE, Jan. 30, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 5B.
"Coalition members contend the PM2.5 standard lacks scientific credibility and consensus. 'There was no consensus among the 21 scientists on the EPA committee proposing the role-making,' said Robert Valero, a coalition spokesman."

498. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Council). BREATH-TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl. Report), May, 96, 107.
"Concentrations of some fine particle species vary seasonally. In the East, for instance, sulfate concentrations peak in the summer months, when power plant production climbs to meet increased demand for electricity. Sulfate concentrations can be twice as high in the summer as during the rest of the year."

499. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 183.
"Fine soot pollution comes mainly from industry, agricultural tilling, and from driving on unpaved roads. Unpaved roads put some 14 million metric tons of PM10 into the U.S. air in 1991, versus about five million from factories. Dust blown by natural wind erosion added another nine million metric tons of PM I 0. These statistics mean that fine-spot pollution caused by people has fallen sufficiently that natural emissions now constitute a third of the problem."

500. Kay Jones (Staff, Zephyr Consulting) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9, 95.86.
"The expected reduction in urban ozone which should take place over the next few years makes the alternative standards indistinguishable from each other. both from a regulatory perspective and a health risk perspective. If a 90 ppb, 8 hr. standard were adopted. the ozone reductions necessary to achieve it is equal to or less than that needed to meet the existing 120 ppb standard, depending upon whether 3 or 5 exceedances are allowed. We do not need to change the current ozone standard. A precedent was already set when we didn't change the NO2 standard, merely because there was new data to suggest we needed a short term standard."

501. Kay Jones (Staff, Zephyr Consulting) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9, 95.86.
"The downward trend in ozone should and will continue for five to ten years just due to auto fleet turnover to new cars. To argue that this won't happen would be counter current to the observed data which has clearly demonstrated that our past VOC control strategies have been effective. Critics would have to refute the very policies they supported to the past and support for the future."

502. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 181-2.
"Since then peak summer ozone readings have declined continuously. During this same period the human population of Los Angeles tripled: the population of automobiles, the primary source of smog, has quadrupled. There are several ways of calculating overall ozone exposure. By the simplest Los Angeles ozone has fallen about 40 percent overall since 1970, a period during which the car population of the city almost tripled."

503. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 182.
"The composite national ozone decline since 1970 is about 27 percent, also during a period in which ever-more cars were driven ever more miles. In 1988 there were 915 days of worst-case ozone 'exceedance' in U.S. cities; the number has been declining since, to 232 total days in 1992. In the 1970s. Los Angeles violated federal standards for carbon monoxide, which causes respiratory distress and headaches, around 40 times per year. Now the average is down to about ten days per year."

504. Alan Krupnick (Sr. Fellow, Resources for the Future) in JOINT CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, Nov. 9, 95, 98.
"Health benefits are huge relative to the costs of controlling both :and PMI0 and ozone is the bigger problem. In fact, based on the epidemiological and clinical evidence, as well as studies that preferences of individuals (expressed in dollar terms) for avoiding types of health effects, the benefits of small additional improvements in ozone reductions may be pretty small while those for control may be far larger."

505. Ralph Marquez (Commission, TX Nat'l. Resource Conservation Comm.) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMEND., Nov. 9, 95, 13.
"I believe that it is time we, as a nation, step out of the current ozone  control philosophy box and reassess our air pollution priorities. Over 20  year's of control programs focused on VOC reductions to bring ozone levels down have shown some degree of success, but only at tremendous cost for the public, regulated community and states. To me, it does not seem that the. benefits derived have warranted that tremendous cost."

506. Ralph Marquez (Commission, TX Nat'l. Resource Conservation Comm.) in JOINT HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMEND., Nov. 9, 95, 12-13.
"The current ozone control strategy is based on many theories that are themselves derived using assumptions and each have certain margins of error. These assumptions with their recognized margins of error are built one upon the other thereby multiplying the margin of error several times which results in control strategies that are inherently uncertain. We in the technical community seem to address ozone control as a discipline with a high degree of certainty as if the mathematical model results are an absolute truth. We know that this is not so."

507. Indur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 362.
"Ozone in contrast with other traditional pollutants, is not emitted directly. It is formed by a series of complex chemical reactions between VOCs and NOx in the presence of sunlight The speed of these reactions and the movement and concentration of ozone depend on meteorological factors such as temperature, wind speed, height of inversion layer, cloudiness, and precipitation. Ozone is one of the major components of Los Angeles's smog. Because it is the product of a very complex set of reactions, which, moreover, are mediated by meteorology, it is difficult to predict changes in ozone levels due to reductions in their precursors (VOC and NOx) with much accuracy."

508. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 69.
"Carbon monoxide, the most common air pollutant, is a colorless, odorless gas that forms when fossil fuels bum incompletely. In high concentrations, carbon monoxide is deadly. In lower concentrations, it can lead to drowsiness, slowed reflexes, and a reduction in the blood's ability to carry and circulate oxygen. EPA monitoring showed a decrease in the presence of carbon monoxide from the early 1970s into the mid- 1 980s, particularly in urban areas where the greatest carbon monoxide concentrations are found. This decrease was largely attributable to the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program for New Cars (new car standards)."

509. Hal Kane (Staff, World Watch Inst.) in VITAL SIGNS, 96, 70.
"World emissions of sulfur from the burning of fossil fuels fell by a half-million tons in 1993, to 69.5 million tons, while those of nitrogen rose by 200,000 tons, to 26.7 million tons. These figures are the most recent data available because no official organization tracks global emissions of these pollutants."

510. Hal Kane (Staff, World Watch Inst.) in VITAL SIGNS, 96. 70.
"With emissions of each gas more or less flat since 1989, the world may have seen the end of growth in sulfur and nitrogen pollution."

511. Henry Gong, Jr. & William S. Linn (Prof., Medicine, USC) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 114.
"in healthy adolescents and adults, acute exposures to high concentrations ( 5 ppm) of SO2 uniformly result in bronchoconstriction, whereas lower levels (0. 15-2.0 ppm) do not elicit significant symptoms or impair lung function even with intermittent exercise and different inhalation routes (45,97,98,101,102). Older subjects (.55-73 years) are not greatly more reactive to inhaled SO2 than younger subjects. The most frequently reported symptoms are confined primarily to the upper airways, cg, an unpleasant taste or odor. The exposure combination of SO2 (0.4 and 1.0 Ppm) and ozone (0.3 and 0.4 ppm) does not produce an additive or synergistic effect."

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512. Indur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 363-4.
"A comprehensive $500 million, ten-year study of acidic deposition in the United States under the auspices of the National Acidic Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) concluded that acid rain in the United States at the levels found in the late 1980s is more of an aesthetic than an ecological problem. The study found that acidic deposition has not been responsible for damaging crops. It may have played a role in the dieback of high-elevation eastern spruce-fir forests (comprising 0. I percent of total U.S. forest area), but not elsewhere."

513. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 168-9.
"And a chemist named Edward Krug Maintained that the basis of scientific understanding of acid rain is erroneous. Krug whose work has been published in peer-reviewed technical journals--more than can be said for many acid rain alarmists--believes that most acid in eastern lakes and forests originates not in raindrops but from the soil, set free by plant action."

514. lndur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 364.
"The NAPAP study found that at current levels. the major negative effects of acidic deposition are probably reduced visibility and accelerated deterioration of outdoor cultural resources."

515. CITIZEN OUTLOOK (Comm. for a Constructive Tomorrow Newsletter), July/Aug., 95, 2.
"Concerning cries about the atmospheric effects of fossil-fuel burning, the ten-year federal NAPAP study dismissed almost all fears about acid rain while a growing number of scientists believe the threat of global warming is nothing but a hoax."

516. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95, 162.
"A problem cannot be at once a threat to life as we know it and a hoax without grounding. But the prism of environmental perception is today machined to polarize debates into such extremes. When an issue splits to polar extremes, the chances are that both sides have lost sight of the real world. That has happened with acid rain. It is a genuine environmental problem, but its significance has never been as important as claimed."

517. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 169.
"Saying there are 240 eastern lakes that became 'critically acidic' since the 1950s, as the NAPAP study did, is a half-truth, Krug believes: There are about as many eastern lakes that became less acidic during the period. NAPAP's findings included puzzling ones such as these: Most of the 'critically acidic' lakes are in Florida. yet Florida is not in the downwind footprint of Midwest power plants. Meanwhile Ohio, where record acid rainfall has been recorded, has no critically acidic lakes. To Krug such enigmatic results mean that acid from rainfall, though sometimes damaging, cannot be the primary explanation for acid in forests and lakes."

518. Indur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 364.
"A National Surface Water Survey for acid-sensitive areas found that only 2 percent of the lake area (about 4 percent of the lakes) were acidic, as were 4 percent of the stream miles. Deposition was the major source of acidification for 75 percent of the acidified lakes and 50 percent of the acidified streams."

519. Julian L. Simon (Prof., Bus. Adm., U. MD), THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE 2, 96, 266.
"In Europe, the supposed effects of acid rain in destroying forests and reducing tree growth have now been shown to be without foundation, forests are larger and trees growing more rapidly, than in the first half of this century ."

520. William Smith (Prof., Envir. Sci.. Yale U.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENV1R., 97, 5.
"Despite the efficacy of SO2-4 leaching in selected soils, it must be realized that forest soils vary greatly in their susceptibility to it. Forest soils have been judged more vulnerable to leaching influence by acid precipitation increases substantially or the buffering capacity of forest soils declines significantly, acid rain influence will not quickly or dramatically alter the productivity of most temperature forest soils via cation depletion."

521. Roger Sedjo (Sr. Fellow, Resources for the Future) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 201.
'Perhaps the most puzzling aspect of these findings was the large increase, about :3-5 percent, in the rate of forest growth that occurred during the 1980s. This surge took place broadly throughout Europe at the same time as the highly popularized fears over forest dieback, allegedly caused by acid rain, were peaking."

522. William Smith (Prof., Envir. Sci., Yale U.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 3.
"For North American forests, it is generally concluded that acid deposition influences on forest systems are neutral, i.e., no adverse effects can be discriminated from natural forest dynamics. Actual effects may be slightly stimulatory (e.g., nitrogen fertilization via nitrate input) or contributory to multiple-factor forest ecosystems). In the latter case, acid deposition is presumed to be highly interactive with other stresses, subtle, in manifestation, and long-term (several decades) in development."

523. William Smith (Prof., Envir. Sci., Yale U.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 4.
"The evidence for acidification (i.e., lowering of pH) of forest soils at the present rates of acid deposition in North America is not great. Forest soils at greatest risk to pH reduction from acid deposition are restricted to those limited soil types characterized by no renewal by fresh soil deposits, low cation exchange capacity. low clay and organic matter contents, low sulfate adsorption capacity, high input of acidic deposition without significant base cation deposition, high present pH (5.5-6.5), and deficiency of easily weatherable materials to a I-m depth."

524. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 167.
"NAPAP was a ten-year, $540 million effort that sent research to sample 7,000 lakes and hundreds of woodlands. Environmental policy is fraught with computer projections, extrapolations, guesstimates, and projections based on extrapolations of guesstimates. Thorough studies of the actual condition of the natural world are quite rare. NAPAP, compiled by credentialed scientists and peer-reviewed by academics with no stake in the outcome, was groundbreaking in this regard. In 1991 it concluded that 'there is no evidence of a general or unusual decline of forests in the United States or Canada due to acid rain."

525. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 168.
"A second reason to question acid rain emergency claims is that rain is only one of many influences that may cause a forest to decline. In the 1930s, when industrial sulfur emissions began in earnest. Fraser firs of the eastern U.S. also began to be plagued by the balsam woolly aphid, a parasite. 'A lot of what people claim is acid rain damage is really from the aphid,' says William Anderson, an economics instructor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga."

526. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 168.
"A third objection to acid rain alarmism turns on the beneficial effects of nitric acid. To the tree and plant species that have learned to use naturally occurring acids, nitric acid in rain acts as a fertilizer, supplying the nitrogen required by green plants. Industrial activity that puts excess nitrous oxides in the air may offend believers in pure autonomous nature but may not offend trees and plants that benefit."

527. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 163.
"Past bouts of natural acid rainfall mean the living world was not unprepared when artificial acid rain began. Raindrops at a pH of 4.0 or even 3.0 appear to have no harmful effect on the skins of most animals or surfaces of most plants: The outer coverings of most living things are perhaps not by coincidence composed of cells that resist acid."

528. lndur Goklany (Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Dept. Interior) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 364.
"By contrast, ozone affects both forest and crop productivity. In fact, because sulfates and nitrates are plant nutrients, acidic deposition may well have benefited both forests and crops. Finnish researchers in a survey of European forests found that forest productivity over the past two decades has been enhanced 25 to 30 percent, a phenomenon they attribute in part to the transport of soil nutrients from acidic deposition."

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529. Sylvan Wittwer (Prof., Horticulture, MI St. U.), FOOD, CLIMATE, & CARBON DIOXIDE, 95, 76.
"The effects of these atmospheric pollutants may enhance as well as detract from crop production. The SO2 in the atmosphere has provided a source of needed sulfur in some agricultural areas, and for some major food crops with significant amounts being extracted from the air by the leaves of plants (Maugh, 1979), the result being that sulfur is now seldom added as a needed element in fertilizer application. Sufficient sulfur appears to be provided from the atmosphere, primarily through foliar uptake.'

530. Thomas D. Bath (Nat Renewable Energy Lab) in ALTERNATIVE FUELS & THE ENVIR., 95, 211.
"The contribution of renewable energy to the U.S. energy supply has been growing since 1970 and will continue to grow. In 1970, essentially all renewable energy came from hydroelectric power (used to generate electricity) and wood (used for space heating industrial processes, and power generation), and represented approximately 6% of the energy supply. In 1990, renewable energy supplied 6.8 quadrillion (I 015) BTUs (quads) or approximately 8% of the nation's energy needs."

531. Lester Brown (Pres., World Watch last.) in VITAL SIGNS, 96, 17.
"The widely varying growth rates of various energy sources in 1995 provided further evidence of the expanding role of renewable energy resources and the movement toward a solar/hydrogen economy. Production of coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear power each expanded by a meager 1 percent or so.'

532. Lester Brown (Pres.. World Watch lnst.) in VITAL SIGNS, 96, 15.
"1 n contrast. the harnessing of renewable energy was growing by leaps and bounds. Wind electric generation expanded by a phenomenal 33 percent and shipments of Photovoltaic cells grew by 17 percent. While the 1,290 megawatts of new wind generating capacity in 1995 is still below the 2,000 megawatts of new nuclear capacity, the gap has narrowed dramatically. And it is likely that the growth in wind will eclipse that of nuclear power before the end of this decade."

533. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 146.
"The cost of electricity generated by several of these RETs has dropped sharply over the past two decades with technological advances and modest commercialization efforts. For example, the cost of PV-generated electricity decreased by a factor of three and the cost of wind-generated electricity decreased by a factor of five between 1984 and 1994."

534. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95. 194.
"Total nonhydro RET electricity generation is projected by the Energy Information Administration (E1A) to increase from about 46 billion kWh in 1993 to 112 billion kWh in 2010. Such estimates are highly uncertain. however, and could be far too optimistic or pessimistic depending on the public policies chosen in the next few years. For example, a focused public-private effort to develop bioenergy crops in order to offset farm supports could encourage the development of perhaps two to three times as much generation capacity as is currently projected by EIA for 2010."

535. Thomas D. Bath (Nat'l. Renewable Energy Lab) in ALTERNATIVE FUELS & THE ENVIR., 95, 21 I.
"Renewable energy technology (PET) development has continued apace during the past decade despite federal government funding constraints. Impressive gains have been made in the conversion efficiencies of all forms of wind and solar energy, and significant cost reductions have occurred on all fronts."

536. Christopher Flavin (V.P for Rsrch., World Watch last.) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 235.
"In addition, recent development are turning wind power, solar energy, and a host of other renewable resources into economically viable energy options. Some twenty thousand wind turbines are already spread across the mountain passes of Califomia and the northern plains of Europe, while tens of thousands of third world villagers are getting their electricity from solar cells. Solar and wind energy are far more abundant than any fossil energy resource in current use, and declining costs are expected to make them fully competitive in the near future."

537. Dennis Anderson (Advisor, Energy & Industry, The World Bank) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 193.
"Until recently, discussions of this question proceeded as if there were no economically or operationally feasible substitutes for fossil fuels other than nuclear power. However, in recent years a range of renewable energy technologies for both small- and large-scale supplies have emerged: photovoltaic.( PVs), for which there are more than fifty approaches being developed and tested based on alternative materials and cell designs; thermal solar schemes; wind energy; and advanced biomass power generation concepts."

538. Report: ENERGY FOR TODAY & TOMORROW, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 96, 3.
"In the past, renewable energy was considered a radical fringe in America's resource base. Today, energy efficiency and renewable energy systems are the key to clean growth. Over the last 15 years, they have become cheaper, better and ready for business."

539. Report: ENERGY FOR TODAY & TOMORROW, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 96, 13.
"The Climate Challenge Program is a voluntary initiative in which utilities agree to make electricity supply and delivery system improvements to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The goal is to cut utility emissions in the year 2000 by as much as 50 million metric tons--approximately 50% of the total reduction targeted by the President's Climate Change Action Plan. By February 1995, the program had signed participation agreements with utilities to reduce emissions by more than 41 million metric tons of carbon, about one-third of the total U.S. commitment."

540. Sarah Magee (Contrib. Ed.) in IEEE SPECTRUM, Jan., 97, 97.
"The U.S. government and many others have accepted the IPCC findings. At an international meeting in July 1996, U.S. Department of State official Tim Wirth made further news. He announced that for the first time the United States will join other nations in seeking a binding international agreement to reduce releases of substances implicated in climate change. Previously, the country had endorsed only voluntary measures."

541. Robert White (Fmr. Chief, U.S. Weather Bureau) in ISSUES IN SCI. & TECH., Fall, 96, 34.
"Influenced by recent scientific reports and aware of the failure of voluntary efforts to achieve emission reductions, the United States has now indicated that it will seek a binding agreement on emission caps and timetables."

542. lan Rowlands (Ph.D. Candidate, London Sch. of Eco. & Pol. Sci.), THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE, 95, 141.
"On 21 April 1993 (Earth Day), US President Bill Clinton committed the United States to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. With this proclamation, a US President agreed to a specific 'target' for the first time."

543. Karl Hausker (Office of Policy, Planning, & Eval., U.S.E.P.A.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 36.
"The core of our submission was the Climate Action Report. The meat of this report is the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan, which describes the actions we are taking to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. This was actually developed last year, in 1993, ahead of the schedule set by the Convention. In moving so aggressively, this country reestablished its leadership on the climate change issue and sent a signal to the world that we are serious about meeting our commitments under the Convention."

544. Karl Hausker (Office of Policy, Planning, & Eval., U.S.E.P.A.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 35.
"The U.S. took the process of its national communication quite seriously, and we produced an excellent submission. The evidence of this is that the INC Secretariat requested additional information from 14 out of the 15 countries that submitted communications. The U.S. was the only country that was not asked to give more information, because we submitted a very thorough and well-documented communication."

545. David Rinebolt (Dir., Programs, Nat'l. Assoc. State Energy Officials) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 47.
"By linking the creativity of the private sector and state and local governments in developing effective deployment programs with the research capabilities of the Department of Energy, the programs of the Energy Policy Act and the Climate Change Action Plan can achieve the environmental goals of the Rio Treaty and accelerate the market for new energy efficiency, renewable, and natural gas technologies and services. These programs will elevate the energy marketplace in the United States into the 21st Century far more rapidly than the action of the marketplace alone."

546. Karl Hausker (Office of Policy, Planning, & Eval., U.S.E.P.A.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 37.
"A second program, jointly run by EPA and DOE is the Climate Wise program, which similarly reaches out to industries of all types and works with them to develop company plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to share information among these partners on what the best approaches are. We have now signed up companies that represent over three percent of the total industrial energy use in our country, and these companies have pledged reductions totaling 20 million metric tons of carbon equivalent."

547. David Rinebolt (Dir., Programs, Nat'l. Assoc. State Energy Officials) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 47.
"Voluntary programs-the 'no regrets' approach to controlling greenhouse gas emissions--can and will work. These programs will result in economic development and job creation in our states by improving the efficiency and productivity of our businesses and reducing energy consumption in homes. A recent analysis of the plan projects the creation of 157,000 jobs by 2000 and 260,000 jobs by 2010."

548. Andy Kydes (Staff, U.S. Dept. Energy) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97. 198.
"The CCAP was developed by the Clinton Administration in response to worldwide commitment to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that would prevent 'dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system.' The goal of the plan was to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 at their 1990 levels. Emissions include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other gases. Energy use is the primary source of carbon emissions and constitutes 87% of the total."

549. Karl Hausker (Office of Policy, Planning, & Eval.. U.S.E.P.A.)in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 38.
"There were fears, I think, in some circles almost as early as six months after we first introduced the plan that the plan isn't working and we're not going to meet our target. Well. that was because energy prices were lower than expected in the immediate aftermath of the plan. Now they have tinned up a little bit. Economic growth is somewhat higher than we expected. We expect to come back to this plan and modify it as needed. There's no way you can set a plan seven years in advance and think that everything is going to go exactly as you predicted. Nevertheless. we are committed next year to conducing the new emissions forecast, seeing how the plans are working, and we will modify the plan as necessary."

550. Karl Hausker (Office of Policy, Planning. & Eval.. U.S.E.P.A.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 38.
"One under-appreciated aspect of the plan is that there are pieces that were not scored for emission reductions. We built some insurance into the plan. Three of the programs 1 mentioned that are now under way, Climate Challenge for electric utilities. Climate Wise for industry. and the State and Local Outreach Programs were assigned no emission reduction tons in our original scoring. We think that this provides a cushion. We are going to assess the degree to which that cushion is going to help us next year. The early pronouncements that this plan is not going to work were vastly overstated. We have been busy the last year and a half getting our programs in place. getting out there and marketing them. and have not been looking over our shoulder every month and wondering about the latest emission forecast."

551. Nelson Hay (Staff, Am. Gas Assn.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 85.
"The programs that have come out of the Climate Change Division at EPA are managed in a very lean and mean way, and I think it probably has been demonstrated that they are more cost effective than the traditional government command and control program."

552. Karl Hausker (Office of Policy, Planning, & Eval., U.S.E.P.A.) in LUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 36.
"Let me turn now to the progress we have made toward implementing action plan. As most of you know, the plan is designed to achieve cost emission reductions. When President Clinton established the goal, t Earth Day of 1993, of returning emissions to 1990 levels by the year he said that not only does he want us to meet that goal, but he wants us to do it in a cost-effective manner which will not create new bureaucracy. The key government role in the plan, as you know, is to promote new and provide incentives for actions that lead to emission Because we have taken this win-win approach, the total cost of implementing the plan is far less than what would have been required under a traditional command- and -control approach."

553. Elizabeth Cook (Staff, World Resources lnst.) in EVALUATING CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 73.
"One of the very positive things about the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan is that it takes steps to deal with gases other than carbon dioxide. In fact, it gets roughly one-third of its reductions from dealing with methane. fluorocarbons, and hydrocarbons."

554. Karl Hausker (Office of Policy, Planning, & Eval.. U.S.E.P.A.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96. 38.
"In general. we are quite pleased with the thoroughness and the quality of the communications submitted by other countries. Of the 15 communications submitted, they included collectively over 700 specific actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Countries have used a wide range of policy mechanisms: everything ranging from economic measures to voluntary programs to regulations to support for our research and development. For the most part, the plans cover major sources of all greenhouse gases, not just CO2. We think that this is extremely positive."

555. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl), BREATH" TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl Report), May, 96, 90.
"According to the U.S. Surgeon General, cigarette smoking is the single most important preventable cause of premature death in the United States. The information presented in this analysis indicates that air pollution is also a significant factor."

556. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Council). BREATH-TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Defense Council Report), May. 96, 2.
"NRDC analyzed the number of lives that could be saved if new air quality standards for particulates were established at levels suggested in the November 1995 draft EPA staff paper. A standard at the upper end of a range EPA is considering would reduce pollution enough to prolong an estimated 21,676 lives. A standard at the NRDC recommended level, however, would go much further and prolong an estimated 56,238 lives per year."

557. Bob Herbert (Staff Editorialist) in DALLAS MORNING NEWS. Feb. 11,97,21A.
"Here we go again. Hoping to prevent 40,000 premature deaths per year while easing the health problems of children with asthma and other respiratory illnesses. the Clinton administration is proposing tough new anti-pollution standards that would lower the current levels of smog and soot in the air."

558. FUEL CELL NEWS (Fuel Cell Inst.), Winter, 97, I.
"The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed more stringent standards for emissions of ozone and other chemicals and particulates, a move likely to reverberate in Congress and the President's Oval Office. EPA is expected to reduce the ozone standard from 120 parts per billion to 80 and to reduce the size of particulates it regulates from 10 microns to 2.5. The new EPA standards are intended to protect against health problems these emissions are thought to produce."

559. THE PLANET (Sierra Club Publication), Mar., 97, I.
"The new rules grew out of a provision in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, which required that the EPA recommend new standards for two specific forms of air pollution every five years. It took a suit by the American Lung Association, however, to force the EPA, which missed the five-year deadline, to act. The new rules for soot, the tiny particles that are by-products of burning fossil fuels, would apply to particles smaller than 10 microns--a human hair is 70 microns thick---which are currently unregulated and more dangerous than larger particles because the nasal passages and upper lungs can't filter them."

560. Jerold Caton (Prof., Engineering, TX A&M U.) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 708.
"The United States Clean Coal Technology (CCT) program was established in 1984 with the setaside of $750 ;million for research and development of commercial processes to accelerate the use of clean coal technologies for power production. The Clean Air amendment of 1990 prescribed reductions in acid rain effects and emissions, aimed primarily at the electric utility industry. Coal gasification projects, as well as fluidized-bed combustion, have been the focus of the DOE CCT program."

561. Anthony Armor (Staff, Electric Power Rsrch. lnst.) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 167.
"At an increasing rate in the last few years, innovations have been developed and tested aimed at reducing emissions through improved combustion and environmental control in the near term, and in the longer term by fundamental changes in how coal is preprocessed before converting its chemical energy to electricity. Such technologies are referred to as clean coal technologies4escribed by a family of precombustion, combustion/conversion, and postcombustion technologies. They are designed to provide the coal user with added technical capabilities and flexibility and at lower net cost than current environmental control options."

562. Background Brief in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95, 124.
"Technological improvements over the past two decades, especially in pollution control systems, have reduced the environmental impacts of coal combustion significantly, and that trend is expected to continue for many of the conventional regulated air pollutants. Today it is possible to capture well over 90 percent of the sulfur dioxide emissions and 99 percent of the particulates released from coal combustion."

563. Bruce Pasternack (Sr. V.P., Booz. Allen & Hamilton. Mgt. Consulting firm) in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8, 95, 178.
"There has been impressive progress in technologies to clean coal before burning, to remove particulates, to desulfurize fuel gas. to improve combustion processes, and to gasify coal. The technology is there. and coal can and should play a role in the future, although its growth will be limited unless natural gas prices are higher than expected."

564. Anthony Armor (Staff. Electric Power Rsrch. Inst.) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 167.
"Cleaning of coal to remove sulfur and ash is well established in the United States with more than 400 operating plants, mostly at the mine. Coal cleaning removes primarily pyritic sulfur (up to 70% SO2 reduction is possible) and in the process increases the heating value of the coal, typically by about 10% but occasionally by 30% or higher."

565. Clifford Miercort (CEO, N. Am. Coal Corp.) in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95. 17.
"Coal is the Nation's most sustainable fossil energy resource, and with technological improvements and through other research efforts, the use of coal can continue to increase more efficiently at the same time that it ensures protection of the environment."

566. Clifford Miercort (CEO, N. Am. Coal Corp.) in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July. 95. 17-8.
"New technologies available today allow coal to be burned with emissions below the requirements of the Clean Air Act. Efficiency gains possible with these technologies mean greater output of electricity with lower carbon dioxide emissions."

567. Int'l. Project Sustainable Energy Report, CA in ENERGY, Feb., 95, 13.
"Furthermore, new 'clean coal' technologies are unlikely to be able to meet ever more stringent urban air pollution requirements, notably in the area of nitrogen oxides. Surcharges for environmental extemalities as recently introduced by several U.S. jurisdictions are leading to additional cost disadvantages for coal."

568. Nat'l. Academics Policy Advisory Group (England) Report, ENERGY & THE ENVIR. IN THE 21ST CENT., July, 95, 55.
"A non-controversial response would be to absorb CO2 from waste streams and dispose of it so that return to the atmosphere would not occur. Technology for the extraction of CO2 from flue gas has been demonstrated on an industrial scale."

569. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report, GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 29-30.
"Co2 removal. This technology is directed at large, stationary emitters of carbon dioxide (in particular power plants), where the CO2 can be captured and subsequently stored or used for other purposes. The CO2 can be captured directly from the flue (exhaust) gases or, alternatively, in modern IGCC (Integrated Gassified Combined Cycle) power plants from the gasified fossil fuels."

570. Nat'l. Academics Policy Advisory Group (England) Report, ENERGY & THE ENVIR. IN THE 21ST CENT., July, 95, 55-6.
"A better prospect for the future would be to convert coal to 142 and CO2 and extract the CO2 prior to combustion in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant."

571. Chris Hamilton (V. P., WV Coal Assoc.) in CHARLESTON GAZETTE. Sept. 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 5A.
"Last year, production from state mines topped 167 million tons. This year, the industry is on a similar tonnage pace with a workforce of over 22,000 working miners--and mining deaths continue to decrease, with seven recorded to date this year."

572. John McCoy (Staff) in C14ARLESTON DALLY MAIL, Feb. 19, 97 {Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 4B.
"At the root of the dispute is money--more specifically, the source of the money spent to restore the waters of the Middle Fork to fishable status. The Division of Environmental Protection and the Division of Natural Resources spent a total of more than $2.5 million to counteract the effects of 25 years' worth of shoddy strip-mining practices."

573. CITIZEN OUTLOOK (Comm. for a Constructive Tomorrow Newsletter), July/Aug., 95, 2.
"Regarding coal, the industry has largely addressed concerns about surface mining by returning over 2 million acres of mined lands to their original or better condition despite a doubling of the amount of coal brought out of surface mines between 1973 and 1992."

574. Jeff McDonald (Special Contrib.) in NY TIMES, Oct. 9, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), B I.
'Tests show that trees will grow as good or better alter the project,' said Bill Butler, SP Milling operations manager. After the rocks are i~ removed from the dug-up soil, the company would replace the dirt to the ):. orchard."

575. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 172.
"Since the 1970 Clean Air Act, every new fossil fueled power plant built, and most new factories, has incorporated sulfur controls. The most common controls are switching from high-sulfur coal to Iow-sulfur coal or to natural gas; washing coal chemically before combustion, to remove sulfur; and installation o f expensive devices cal led stack scrubbers. which strip sulfur from exhaust gases ascending the smokestack to exit the plant. Today new power plants and factories emit about 90 percent less sulfur per unit of fuel input than facilities built in the 1970s. By the late 1990s the figure will be about 95 percent."

576. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 87-8.
"Title IV of the 1990 CAAA is the first law in the nation's history to attempt to deal comprehensively with Acid rain. It requires that by the turn of the century, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions be reduced approximately 40 percent from 1980 levels. In January 1993, the EPA issued its final rules to cut annual emissions of SO2 in half, establishing a permanent national cap on utility emissions of just under a total of 9 million tons annually. Phase I begins in 1995 and Phase It begins in the year 2000 and will utilize a market-based allowance trading mechanism."

577. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 88.
"Phase 1I for sulfur dioxide will begin in the year 2000 and will tighten emissions on these larger plants and will also affect the remaining 800 plants in the United States. Utilities that begin operation in 1996 or beyond will not be issued any allowances and will have to purchase them from other plants."

578. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 298.
"Finally, the acid rain program will promote enforcement by requiring the installation of continuous monitoring equipment, which is required to be operative 90 percent of the time, and to be accurate to within 10 to. 15 percent of a benchmark technology. The EPA will certify the monitors at each plant; thus, the monitoring process itself retains a CAC flavor. Once plant's monitoring units have been certified, the EPA will record all trades and then check allowances against emissions on an annual basis to insure compliance. The key to the success of the program will depend upon the ultimate long-run accuracy and performance of the monitoring technology. Violators will face a fine of $2,000 per ton for excess emissions and must offset those emissions the following year. The fine level is substantially above the expected market price and yet not so high as to be unenforceable. Thus, it represents a very credible threat to firms."

579. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 296.
"These environmental concerns, along with the potential health risks from sulfate pollution discussed earlier, finally led to action on acid rain in the 1990 Clean Air Act. The legislation requires a reduction of 10 million tons of sulfur dioxide emissions from 1980 levels, down to 8.95 million tons per year, and are education o1'2.5 million tons of nitrogen oxide emissions by the year 2000. The reduction in SO2 emissions is considered by some scientists to be sufficient to protect most aquatic ecosystems."

580. Anthony Armor (Staff, Electric Power Rsrch. lnst.) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 165.
"There is also good reason why the pulverized coal plant may still be a primary choice for many generation companies. Scrubbers have proved to be more reliable and effective than early plants indicated. Up to 99% SO2 removal efficiency is possible. By the year 2000. 30 GW of U.S. coalfired generation will likely be equipped with flue gas desulferization (FGD) systems."

581. Anthony Armor (Staff Electric Power Rsrch. Inst.)in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 168.
"So although there has been a perception that the pulverized-coal power plant has come to the end of the road and that advanced coal technologies will quite soon make the PC plant with a scrubber. whose efficiency hovers around 35%, obsolete, this perception is premature. There is good reason why the PC plant is still a primary choice for many electricity generators, since scrubber have proved to be more reliable and effective than early plants indicated. Up to 99% SO2 removal efficiency is possible. By the year 2000 60 GW of U.S. coal-tired generation will likely be equipped with FGD systems."

582. Hal Kane (Staff, World Watch Inst.) in VITAL SIGNS, 96, 70.
"Scrubbers and other cleaning technologies have the ability to take most of the sulfur out of waste gases from power plants before they reach the atmosphere. And technologies that bum fuel more efficiently and at more precise temperatures release considerably less nitrogen into the atmosphere than less well tuned equipment, while catalytic converters can also remove nitrogen oxides from emissions."

583. David Lewis Feldman (Sr. Rsrch. Assoc., U. TN) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 14-5.
'Greater effort must be devoted to understanding the complex effects of price, government subsidy, and public perception on energy R&D. Energy prices are not very good predictors of technological change or innovation. In short, there remains considerable debate on whether technology is exogenous (affected primarily by outside factors such as scientific inventiveness, public education, and public confidence with regard to change--e.g., Flavin) or endogenous (a product of changing market conditions dependent on price--e.g., Hogan."

584. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,480.
"For the system to work. taxes must be linked with benefit payments. Taxing conventional sources for their pollution alone will be insufficient. Taxes would discourage one activity, in this case pollution, but would not necessarily encourage the preferred activity: the increased use of wind and solar energy. Pollution taxes must be coupled with a mechanism for directly compensating wind and solar sources for their social or nonprice benefits."

585. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Leo., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 235.
"While the general nature of the responses to carbon taxation is reasonably clew, their magnitude cannot be forecast with any precision. Historical data can be used to measure what the price elasticity has been. While such exercises confirm that it is negative, the precision of the estimates arising is not great. Forecasting introduces further problems, such as what to assume about the future income level, and the error bands on any energy demand forecast will be wide."

586. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 30.
"Marketlike incentives may send the signal that pollution is acceptable if the polluter is wealthy enough to pay for it. Moreover, regulators usually lack sufficient information about the economic status of individual firms to permit them to set pollution taxes at the optimal level. And industry groups, usually vigorous proponents of market incentives that do not cost them anything, like emissions trading, quickly withdraw their support when pollution taxes or fees are proposed."

587. Sharon Beder (Prof., Tech. Studies, U. Wollongong, Australia) in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, Jan. 96.57.
"In Britain a rise of 400% in sewerage charges failed to change firms' behavior, even though it was shown that small investments in pollution control would pay back in under a year. The charging system was not understood by the firms affected; it was dealt with by the finance department, not the engineers; and the firms did not know the technological options available. A regulation requiring them to install the better technology would almost certainly have been more efficient--that is, cost less overall than the huge price hike which would have been required to get the same changes made."

588. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pot. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 141.
"Carbon taxes cannot guarantee the amount of reduction of carbon emissions, that depends on the response of energy users and suppliers."

589. William Nierenberg (Dir. Liner., Scripps lnst. of Oceanography) in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUB. TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 120.
"The same can be said of the socioeconomic models. There are among links and considerable feedback between the climate and economic models. Therefore, it is not at all clear what the overall effect would be of carbon taxes or other methods of constraining CO2 emissions."

590. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENV1R., 95, 306.
'`The main lesson to be learned from our experience with pollution taxes is that they are very hard, if not impossible, to implement at levels high enough to function as a sole means of pollution control. This was clearly illustrated by the fierce opposition to President Clinton's modest gasoline tax proposal in 1993.'

591. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 301.
"In contrast to the United States' limited experience with pollution taxes, Germany, France, and the Netherlands have all instituted effluent charges for water pollutants. While the taxes are highest in the Netherlands, in no ease are they the sole instrument used to control water quality. Rather, effluent systems are grafted onto CAC systems which mandate standards and control technologies. What lessons can be learned from the European experience? First, in all cases, taxes were introduced at low levels and then slowly raised. The real value of taxes has, thus, not been eroded by inflation. However, a tax high enough to be a primary determinant of pollution levels appears to be politically infeasible in most cases."

592. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 242.
"The renewable energy industry in Europe could benefit from a tax on CO2 emissions. It should be noted, however, that European prices for electricity are often substantially higher than those in the United States without any carbon tax. For example, the price for electricity in the industrial sector in 1991 was 8.8 cents/kWh in Germany compared with 4.9 cents/kWh in Germany compared with 4.9 cents/kWh in the United States. This allows RETs to be fully competitive at a somewhat earlier point in their development path."

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593. Eric Hirst (Staff, Oak Ridge Nat'l. Lab) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 138.
"Consumers Power (1992) as part of its scenario analysis, considered two global-warming cases. These scenarios included a tax on CO2 ($30/ton beginning in 2000) or a cap on CO2 emissions (a requirement to reduce emissions to its 1990 level beginning in the year 2000). by 2007, the emissions-limit case included four times as much DSM as the base case, a 28% reduction in carbon emissions, and a 4% increase in revenue requirements from 1993 to 2007."

594. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 307.
"Business groups invariably predict that carbon taxes would have a catastrophic effect on the U.S. economy. The National Coal Association, whose constituents would be losers under the tax, has estimated that even a low carbon tax often dollars per ton would cost the economy $41 billion per year."

595. Paul Ekins (Rsrch. Fellow, Dept. Eco., U. London) in GLOBAL WARMING & ENERGY DEMAND. 95, 293-4.
"The Congressional Budget Office (1990) estimated that a phase-in of a $100 carbon tax over 10 years for the United States would cause a loss of 2% of GDP annually by the second five years."

596. David Montgomery (Charles River Assn.. Wash.. DC) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96. 82.
"Certainly, repowering coal-fired power plants that are ending their nominal lives with another fuel is a way of reducing emissions, but it's an expensive one, because what you have to do is compare the cost of continuing to operate those coal-fired power plants or repowering them with coal with the cost of building a new power plant. And when I sit down and do that calculation, it just doesn't come out as being a no-cost measure. It is a feasible decision if you were willing to commit to carbon taxes that were. say, between $100 and $200 a ton. So it's an expensive measure."

597. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK. Open U.), RENEWABEL ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 423.
"The advantages of the carbon/energy tax are that it encourages the use of fuels with lower or zero carbon content, so favoring renewables; it applies to all sectors of the economy and it is levied on producers, who may not pass it on fully to consumers. Among the disadvantages are that it imposes additional burdens on energy-intensive industries, which leaves them at a competitive disadvantage if there is now world-wide agreement. It also raises prices to consumers, which may disadvantage poorer households disproportionately."

598. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 422.
"In 1992 the European Commission proposed a 'carbon/energy' tax an idea that provoked much heated debate. This would have been levied partly on energy and partly on the carbon content of the fuels used. The original intention was to introduce the tax in 1993 at the rate of $3 per barrel of oil, or equivalent, building up to $10 a barrel in 2000. The tax would have affected fossil fuels, nuclear energy and also large-scale hydroelectric schemes. Other renewables would have been exempt."

599. lan Rowlands (Ph.D. Candidate, London Sch. of Eco. & Pol. Sci.), THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE, 95. 135.
"Numerous studies document this, speculating that an internationally uniform carbon tax would cause greater increases in end-use prices of energy in the United States than, for example, in Germany and Japan."

600. ENVIRONMENT, Mar., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 12.
"In addition to the industry attack campaigns, several factors contributed to the Btu tax proposal's defeat: the administration's poor political strategizing and management of the situation, environmentalists' failure to mobilize support, general job insecurity, an antitax/antigovernment political climate, and a lack of support from businesses who stood to benefit. When combined, these factors fostered the popular perception that the tax would damage Americans' economic well-being. The opposition of fuel producing regions and businesses to an energy tax was inevitable. General acceptance of the argument that the tax would damage the international competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing and threaten jobs was not, and that ultimately proved to be more fatal."

601. ENVIRONMENT, Mar., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 12.
"Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Finland have successfully adopted carbon taxes, largely by restructuring existing taxes and providing special exemptions for industry. However, similar tax proposals in the European Union, the United States, and Australia were deferred or defeated. As this discussion has demonstrated, concerns about economic competitiveness and employment as well as concerted business opposition were the key factors behind those failures. Theoretically, such barriers could be lowered through a multilateral tax or a system of harmonized national taxes. In practice, however, nations are unlikely to agree to these approaches."

602. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 240-1.
"Carbon taxation would differ from what is sometimes understood as an expenditure tax in one important respect. An expenditure tax is sometimes taken to mean a tax which impacts only on the expenditure of individuals as consumers, and does not impact on the expenditure of firms. This is usually to be achieved by allowing firms to reclaim any tax paid on their purchases of inputs to production. This is a feature, for example, of the system of value added taxation in place in the European Community. One reason for this rebate is to avoid adverse effects on international competitiveness arising from higher costs for inputs to international competitiveness arising from higher costs for inputs to production. Such rebates would not be allowed with carbon taxation. They would negate one of the intended effects of the carbon taxation, that of generating incentives to producers, as well as consumers, to alter their patterns of purchases away from carbon intensive commodities."

603. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.). RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 423.
"Although most advocates of free markets accept that all users of energy should pay for both its 'internal' and 'external' costs, in practice it seems that energy taxes for industry will be acceptable only if all competing industries in the world pay equally."

604. Jonathan Marshall (Economics Ed.) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Sept. 18, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), DI.
"Even a tax to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels could 'feel like living through the oil-price shock of the 1970s and early 1980s,' the report says. Either policy would have far-reaching effects on energy-related economic sectors: significantly increasing heating costs in the North. cooling costs in the South and driving costs in the West."

605. Gerald Karey (Wash. Bureau) PLATT'S OILGRAM NEWS, Sept. 12. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 3.
"Gary Yohe, professor of economics at Wesleyan University, told the conference that imposing a carbon tax in the US to achieve a 20% reduction in greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2010 could 'feel like living through the oil price shock of the 1970s and early 1980s all over again.' This feeling would be closer to actual experiences if the taxes are not imposed with maximum efficiency, he said."

606. lan Rowlands (Ph.D. Candidate, London Sch. of Eco. & Pol. Sci.), THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE. 95, 143.
"If a carbon tax were slapped on at the well-bead, then the major oil exporting states would experience a GDP increase of 4.5 per cent over a forty-year period (because the effect of the tax would be similar to a price rise)."

607. lan Rowlands (Ph.D. Candidate, London Sch. Of  Eco. & Pol. Sci.), THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE, 95, 136.
"One study, for example, found that a phased-in carbon tax of US$30 per ton would have eventually raised coal prices by 78 percent while oil and gas prices would have risen by only 19 percent each. Such a price rise would have obviously put the future of American coal workers at risk. Thus, unemployment would be increased."

608. ENVIRONMENT. Mar-, 06 (Online, Nexis, A/I/O'TL 152.

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609. COAL & SYNFUELS TECHNOLOGY, Sept. 9, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), I.
"While a tax on the carbon content of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas has an added benefit of reducing global warming by reducing carbon emissions, such a tax is harsher on the regions that produce coal as well as colder climates in the Northeast and Midwest that produce more electricity from coal."

610. C. T. CarIey (Prof., Meek Engineering., MS St. U.) in TIMES-PICAYUNE, Mar. 18, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), B6.
"Independent studies increasingly point to severe economic consequences that would result from efforts to force down carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2010, especially f it's done by imposing a $200-per-ton carbon tax. Such a tax, a DRI/McGraw Hill study determined, would result in job losses in the United States averaging more than 500,000 per year through 2010, with peak losses of I million jobs per year in the two years after the tax was implemented. The Gulf states alone would lose tens of thousands of high-paying jobs."

611. MONTGOMERY ADVISOR, Mar. 2 I, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 11A
"By committing the United States to legally binding restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions, the Clinton administration is setting a course that could cost Americans millions of jobs and force a major restructuring of the economy. Oil and chemical companies, mining firms, forest-products companies, and automobile manufacturers would be among the industries hardest hit."

612. Jonathan Marshall (Economics Ed.) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Sept. 18, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97). DI.
"Utility investors could be in for a rude shock if the Clinton administration follows through on promises to prevent greenhouse warming by limiting carbon dioxide emissions, a new report warns. Utilities across much of the country that rely on coal plants to generate electricity could see their costs double if the government imposes a tax on their emissions. the Natural Resources Defense Council said yesterday. Industry estimates put the potential cost of a carbon tax to electric utilities of at $60 billion a year."

613. Henry Linden (Staff) in JRNL. COMMERCE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/I/97), 6A.
"IPCC's initial objective roll-back of total carbon emissions from these fuels by industrialized countries to 1990 levels and stabilization at this level would require carbon taxes orS100 to $200 per metric ton. Studies by independent economists show that a $1 00-a-ton carbon tax would increase the energy bills of most U.S. consumers by 20 percent to 40 percent. Even if the proceeds were used to lower existing taxes, this would reduce U.S. gross domestic product by 2 percent to 4 percent by 2010. and result in job losses of SO0,000 to I million a year compared to the baseline."

614. Marc Ross (Prof., Engineering, U. MI) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 550.
"There are. however, serious disadvantages in implementation. The outstanding difficulty is caused by the heterogeneity of products and product processes. This means that the administration of refunds would become complex or iniquitous as the level and mix of production by any firm changed. Another disadvantage is that little of the carbon tax might be passed on to customers, so they would not get the full price signal."

615. Jonathan Adler (Dir., Envir. Studies, CIE) in WASH. TIMES, Oct. 14, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/1/97), A l7.
"Even were the taxes offset by corresponding cuts in income taxes. the new levy would crimp economic growth. Mr. Yohe suggests the imposition of energy taxes on this scale would feel like the energy crisis all over again. Industry would take a pounding. Energy-intensive sectors of the economy, including mining, chemical production, and paper, would be particularly hardhit."

616. Tim Jackson (Assoc. Fellow Stockholm, Envir. lnst.), MATERIAL CONCERNS, 96, 157,
	"But even with the endorsement of national economic benefits, governments may still face difficulties in implementing ecological tax reform.  Even if the nation as a whole benefits from the shift, there may be short-term losers.  One of the particular problems of recycling material taxes in the form of reduced income taxes is that it can have unpleasant effects on those who do not currently pay income tax."

617. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 250.
"We noted above that economists would presume that carbon taxation would reduce the average material standard of living. The basis for this is as follows. Assume that technology cannot be changed and that the total level of output is fixed. In this context, carbon taxation raises the price of energy relative to labor, increasing the demand for labor, and reducing the demand for energy, as inputs to production. If output is constant and more individuals are employed in producing it, output per employee, the average material standard of living, falls."

618. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco.. Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 243.
"Discussion of the regressive impact of carbon taxation, or of higher energy prices generally, usually deals with impacts measured. But all commodity production uses energy, so that carbon taxation affects the prices of all commodities."

619. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 245-6.
"In fact, they generally assume that carbon taxation would reduce the average material standard of living in an economy."

620. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 175.
"It does appear that because much pollution is generated in the production of necessities such as basic manufactured goods. power. and transport, the cost of environmental regulation is borne unevenly. Most studies suggest that pollution control has a regressive impact on income distribution. meaning that the higher prices of consumer goods induced by regulation take a bigger percentage bit out of the incomes of poor people than of wealthier individuals."

621. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof.. Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR.. 95, 175.
"On the other hand, poor and working class people appear to benefit more from pollution control than the relatively wealthy. In the case of air pollution. for example, urban rather than suburban areas have been the primary beneficiaries of control policies. The effects are further magnified because those in the lower half of the income distribution have a harder time buying their own cleaner environment by way of air and water filters and conditioners, trips to spacious, well-maintained parks, or vacations in the country. Dramatic evidence of the exposure of low-income people comes from the autopsies of 100 youths from poor neighborhoods in Los Angeles. According to the pathologist, '80 percent of the youths had notable lung abnormalities."

622. DALLY YOMIURI, Nov. 28.96 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97). 12.
"In the document, MITl drew attention to the potential problems of the tax, noting: It would be different to distribute the tax burden equally. For example, taxes would be heavier in colder regions where residents need to spend more on energy to heat their houses."

623. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95. 241-2.
"Carbon taxation would differentially increase all of the prices facing consumers. Individuals differ in their patterns of commodity consumption according to their position in the income scale. It is widely believed that higher energy prices, which carbon taxation would cause, would hurt the poor most, since they spend larger proportions of their incomes on fuel. Carbon taxation would then increase inequality, i.e. be regressive in impact. The direct impact on prices would itself make all individuals worse off, but the effect would be greatest on the least well-off."

624. Jean-Philippe Barde (Admin., OECD Envir. Directorate) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRON. & RESOURCE ECONOMICS. 95, 215.
"It is often asserted that taxes have regressive effects on income categories. For example, energy taxes are likely to have stronger income effects on poorer households, for instance, in colder countries where more fuel is used for heating purposes."

625. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 246.
"While at the aggregate level the expectation is of increased employment and reduced real wages, this would be consistent with quite different outcomes for different groups of workers. [The presumption for increased employment is conditional on our assuming away international trade effects in this chapter.] Hence, the impact on poverty and inequality is very difficult to predict."

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626. J. Lon Carlson (Prof., Envir. Econ., IL St. U.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 694.
"To be able to relate a pollutant to various damages, all of the potential damages that could be linked to the pollutant must be identified. However, in many cases, latency is a problem, i.e., many adverse effects do not manifest themselves for many years. As such, there may be a considerable time lag between exposure to a pollutant and the occurrence of adverse effects. Limited data will also affect estimation of the damage function and, therefore, estimates of the amount of damage attributable to a given quantity, e.g., concentration, of a pollutant. Finally, data limitations with respect to willingness to pay to avoid damages constrain the estimation of the monetary value of the damages."

627. J. Lon Carlson (Prof., Envir. Econ., IL St. U.) in THE W1LEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 694.
"As a second approach, some analysts have suggested that pollution control costs already incurred provide insights to the marginal damage costs of certain pollutants (92) This assertion is based on the assumption that because policymakers have decided to require the existing level of control, it is reasonable to assume that the perceived marginal benefits of the existing level of control (i.e., marginal damages avoided) are equal to or exceed the marginal costs of control, i.e., policymakers are behaving in an efficiency enhancing manner. However, this argument has no sound basis on which to stand. In many, if not most, instances, pollution standards have been based on considerations other than economic efficiency. For example, according to the Clean Air Act, the standards for criteria pollutants are to be set so as to ensure the health and safety of the affected population."

628. Peter Bartelmus (Dir., Envir. & Energy Slat. Div., U.N.) in PRICING THE PLANET, 96, 188.
"Clearly, economic valuation of environmental effects reaches its limits when going beyond the cost/production-oriented approaches of market and maintenance valuation and attempts the (contingent) valuation of welfare effects on health, recreation or other social values. Earlier attempts at measuring economic welfare (e.g.. Nordhaus and Tobin 1972) failed thus in replacing or supplementing conventional economic indicators by an index of economic welfare."

629. Stephan Schmid Heiny & Frederico J. L. Zorraquin (Industrialists & Members of the World Bus. Council for Sustainable Devel.), FINANCING CHANGE, 96, 173.
"Accounting and reporting systems do not adequately convey potential environmental risks or opportunities."

630. Peter Bartelmus (Dir., Envir. & Energy Stat. Div.. U.N.) in PRICING TI4E PLANET, 96, 191.
"A number of problems in assessing welfare--oriented growth make such definition rather ambiguous. First, like any average. per-capita figures are only meaningful if assessed in the context of their distribution. Distributionary aspects are particularly relevant for the assessment of equity in economic growth and development. Inequities are conspicuously manifest in conditions of poverty and hunger as compared to those of affluence, both within and among countries. However, they cannot be readily translated into economic costs or benefits. Second, the estimation of environmental damage, related to human well-being, faces considerable measurement and valuation problems which, in general make a welfare-oriented definition of economic growth non-operational."

631. Stephan Schmid Heiny & Frederico J. L. Zorraquin (Industrialists & Members of the World Bus. Council for Sustainable Devel.), FINANCING CHANGE, 96, 147.
"What about environmental accounting in the pure sense--the process of putting a price on nature, as discussed in terms of a new system of national accounts? This type of accounting is farm more difficult to grasp because it bears so little relation to financial accounting. In a market, prices and costs can to a great extent be observed rather than estimated. Pricing the environment, however, requires scientific estimation of future costs and guesses as to what society is willing to pay for a certain resource or service not privately owned. One approach involves surveys asking people what they would be willing to pay to visit a given protected area or use a beach. This is often criticized because it does not involve real money."

632. Peter Bartelmus (Dir., Envir. & Energy Stat. Div., U.N.) in PRICING THE PLANET, 96, 180.
"There are limits, however, in assigning monetary values to environmental costs and benefits. As shown below, such valuation becomes arbitrary with increasing distance of environmental effects from the production and consumption activities that cause them. Social evaluation in terms of exogeneously set standards and targets will have to replace monetary valuation achieved through simulating markets for non-marketed environmental functions."

633. J. Lon Carlson (Prof., Envir. Econ., IL St. U.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 693.
"Questions regarding the validity of available estimates are certainly justified. Reviews of the literature on extemalities associated with electricity production have pointed out that many of the existing estimates of external costs are relatively crude approximations that, in many cases, ~ have been derived via flawed research methods."

634. J. Lon Carlson (Prof., Envir. Econ., IL St. U.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 694.
"In some cases, the costs that would be incurred to mitigate or avert the potential damages attributable to a pollutant have been used to measure damage costs. For example, potential damages to agricultural crops might be averted by increased use of fertilizer, water, or some other input. The value of the additional resources required to offset the potential damage constitutes the damage costs attributable to the pollutant, i.e., the additional production costs constitute the damages incurred by farmers. However, in many cases, opportunities to offset fully the adverse effects of a pollutant are unavailable, and hence this approach cannot be used."

635. Jae Edmonds. Michael Grubb, & Michael Morrison, Rsrch. Scientists, Pacif. N'West Lab, Royal Inst. of lnt'l. Affairs (London), & Caminas Energy Ltd., UK) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 341-2.
"Considerable uncertainty also surrounds estimates of the price elasticity of energy demand. Most studies have sought to estimate elasticities from the response of demand to the energy price rises of the 1970s and early 1980s. More recent trends, if anything, increase the uncertainties. Although energy demand has started to rise again in OECD countries following the price falls since the mid-1980s, the response has not been nearly as great as predicted by the simple reversible statistics of elasticity."

636. Julian L. Simon (Prof., Bus. Adm., U. MD), THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE 2, 96, 198-9.
"'Using energy involves potential costs for society that aren't fully reflected in market prices.' This can be meritorious argument. Ira coal furnace deposits pollution on other people's wash, or hams their health, the polluters should pay the cost. If the use of gasoline causes highways to deteriorate, vehicle operations (or owners) should pay for the damage. But large difficulties lie in the assessment of the externalities, and in the choice among policies to internalize them."

637. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.),GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96, 141.
	"Emission permits and subsequent trading of the permits may be able to make a quota system more economically efficient, if permits are set at the same price as a carbon tax generating an identical cut in emissions. These, however, present their own problems: the arrangements for allocation as well as trading will be difficult to create and maintain. in addition, permit trading might lead to industries abandoning investment in compliance mechanisms or research and development, if purchasing permits proved cheaper than compliance."

638. Jean-Jacques Laffont (IDEI, U. des Sciences Sociales) in JRNL. OF PUBLIC ECO., Oct., 96, 139.
"The purpose of this exploratory paper has been, first, to alert the reader to the negative impact of plain allowance markets on environmental innovations and second, to suggest some improvements. Stand-alone spot markets enable the government to expropriate an innovation by offering a competing 'technology' (pollution permits) and by putting an arbitrary downward pressure on the licensing price. Advance allowances reduce expropriation but still create very suboptimal incentives for innovation. They have the further drawback that permits are inefficiently used when the innovation occurs."

639. Jean-Jacques Laffont (IDEI, U. des Sciences Sociales) in JRNL. OF PUBLIC ECO., Oct., 96, 128.
"The government can, in the case of innovation, put arbitrary downward pressure on the licensing fee by giving potential polluters the right to purchase pollution permits at a low price. The innovator is then forced to undercut the permits price. In equilibrium, the innovator does not benefit from innovation, and no R&D is performed."

640. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY TOOLS (U.S. Office of Tech. Assessment), Sept., 95, 112.
"One of the most often cited advantages of emissions trading is that it fosters technological innovation. Since emission reductions should be considered the equivalent of valuable and marketable emission permits, the incentives created by the trading program could stimulate innovation in the strategies and technologies used to reduce emissions. However, no actual data are available about the effects of tradeable emissions on technology innovation."

641. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY TOOLS (U.S. Office of Tech. Assessment), Sept., 95, 113.
"Economic models have been used to predict the impact of tradeable emissions, and generally have found weaker links between trading and innovation than often asserted. One model showed no difference in incentive to innovate among tradeable emissions, charges, and harmbased standards imposing similarly stringent standards (109). Another found that the incentive to innovate would vary from firm to firm, and that many firms would have less incentive to innovate under a tradeable emissions regime than under harm-based standards because they could buy their way around the need to reduce emissions."

642. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 36.
'If utilities are going to take the risk inherent in purchasing and selling allowances, you need a commensurate reward,' says James Evans. the director of environmental activities with the Edison Electric Institute, which represents investor-owned utilities. 'They need to know whether there will be an equitable split between ratepayers and shareholders. It could end up being heads I win, tails you lose. If you make a good deal, the benefits go to the ratepayers. But if in retrospect it appears that had you done something differently it would have been a better deal, then your shareholder bears the burden. In that scenario, which is not unlikely, there's no incentive at all to take that risk.'

643. Jean-Jacques Laffont (IDEI, U. des Sciences Sociales) in JRNL. OF PUBLIC ECO., Oct., 96, 1334.
"To summarize: the sale of advance permits has two perverse effects compared with the situation where there are no permits, First, the permits partially prevent the adoption of a superior, pollution-free technology. Secondly, they reduce the innovator's profit and therefore incentive to innovate (this incentive is already suboptimal in the absence of permits because the innovator does not internalize the increase in 'consumer surplus' brought about by the innovation)."

644. J. Blanding Holman (J.O., U. VA), VA ENVIR. LAW R, Fall, 95.23-4.
"Although the cost efficiency of emission charges is guaranteed. at least in a competitive market, environmental effectiveness is not. If pollution control costs are not fully known with certainty, a trial-and-error procedure is needed to reach the desired level of emissions (De Clerq, 1983). This might imply a certain delay in meeting the environmental objective or an overshooting of the emission goal if the charge set is too high."

645. Gary Bryner {Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 257.
"Opportunities for regulated sources to gain emissions credits may also inhibit the achievement of environmental goals. One of the most attractive features of trading schemes, for example, is a declining cap that requires lower total emissions each year as a way to gradually improve air quality. However, loopholes can provide opportunities to circumvent the shrinking cap. If stationary sources can purchase mobile source credits through vehicle scrappage and other programs, they may have a virtually open-ended supply of credits of increases in allocations in one area are offset by reductions in another area."

646. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95,257-8.
"Another critical factor in an emissions Wading scheme is the-scope of trading: the broader the geographic scope of trading, he greater the likelihood that permits will be Waded and that 'each zone contains a sufficient number of emission sources to create an active permit market.' Ideally, from an environmental and economic standpoint, all sources of pollution would be included in a given trading program. But there are some constraints, such as the inefficiencies of trying to regulate small sources. More serious is the problem of interpollutant trading, since not all pollutants pose the same kinds of risks.,,

647. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 35.
"CBE is also concerned with localized problems versus widespread trading. 'If groups in a certain area buy enough credits, they can pollute as much as they want,' says CBE staff attorney Richard Drury. 'And from our limited data, they seem to center in poor areas. It's economically efficient to dump things on poor people. Hot-spot problems and environmental justice can't be addressed with trading schemes, only with command-and-control ."

648. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 79.
"Many environmentalists are critical of emissions trading. They point out that trades do not result in reductions of emissions but rather just a shifting of emissions. One national environmental organization, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), has labeled the bubble concept 'one of the most destructive impediments to the cleanup of unhealthy air.' The NRDC and other environmental groups have argued that emissions trading essentially allows current levels of pollution to remain the same in nonattainment areas."

649. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 78-9.
"The goat of emissions trading, or the buying and selling of 'Emission Reduction Credits' (ERC), is to achieve cleaner air at a lower cost. Evidence suggests that emissions trading has lowered the cost of pollution control to industry, but it has had a negligible effect on air quality."

650. Hoist Siebert (Pres., Kiel lnst. World Eco., Germany), ECONOMICS OFTHE ENV1R., 95, 131.
"As a practical problem, the permit approach can only be used for new facilities; old installations have a de-facto permit either through an explicit grandfather clause or through the impossibility of reworking existing permits."

651. Gary Bryner {Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 30.
"For Commoner, the creation of a free market in pollution simply allows companies to buy permits when they choose not to install mechanisms to control or prevent pollution. Giving polluters a certain quantity of pollution they can emit is a perverse parody of the 'free market.' ...Instead of goods--useful things that people want--being exchanged. 'bads' that nobody wants are traded. It is a market that cannot operate unless it is provided with what it is supposed to exchange--pollutants. This is a proposal that not only fails to prevent pollution but actually requires (emphasis in original) it."

652. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 35-6.
"Many partisans of the sulfur trading program are disturbed at how sluggish the market is. Despite low, low prices, hardly anyone seems to want to buy the dam things---even, the General Accounting Office reports, when it costs a utility more to reduce emissions than to buy allowances."

653. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 36.
"Public utility regulators are now debating how to handle emissions deals in prudence reviews and ratemaking. But so far only four states involved in Phase I of the sulfur dioxide market have yet made rigorous, detailed regulatory decisions fully covering their treatment of allowances, says Ken Rose of the National Regulatory Research Institute."

654. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 35.
"The Adirondack Council, an Albany-based environmental group, and the Natural Resources Defense Council are suing the EPA to set .standards dictating how much sulfur dioxide can fall on specific regions, not Just a cap for the whole nation. 'The EPA's rules have a catchall prohibiting states from taking actions that interfere with allowance trading. We're trying to challenge that provision,' says David Hawkins, an NRDC lawyer pursuing the case."

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655. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 35.
"Environmental activists also have problems with the program's national scale. National reductions in overall sulfur emissions are well and good, but regional desires can conflict with the national standards. New York state was unhappy that a state utility could profit from selling emission allowances that might end up in the hands of a Midwestern utility--whose extra emissions might rain back down on the Adirondacks. The New York Assembly has twice passed bills banning such sales, but the bills haven't gotten through the Senate."

656. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 37.
"The open-market trading system is a buyer-beware market. Unlike with the sulfur program, where you start with allowances that can be used as currency, any would-be seller of credits needs to assert to the EPA that he has reduced his own emissions, which the agency acknowledges but doesn't verify. Only then can the credit be sold. The buyer is responsible for verifying that the credits he bought were any good. 'I f you need to verify each wade, no one will trade,' insists Boyden Gray, an architect of the sulfur dioxide program and critic of the open market trading system."

657. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed.. Reason) in REASON, May, 96. 37.
"Another problem is the trading program's two-phase structure. To ease in the burdens on utilities, the most polluting plants were thrown in first in Phase 1. Other things being equal, those plants should have the lowest reduction costs, and thus be the most likely sellers of allowances. But the higher-cost reducers don't have to worry about the program until Phase II begins in the year 2000. The system thus separates likely sellers from likely buyers--and trading is less intense than it might be."

658. ENVIRONMENT, Mar., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 12.
"Some economists suggest that either a carbon tax or a wading scheme would be sufficient to reduce fossil carbon emissions; pubic policy only needs to 'get the prices right' and then the market system will achieve an appropriate level of emission reduction. However, the energy sector is a far from ideal market. Firms systematically fail to implement practices to improve energy efficiency that are profitable under current prices."

659. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed.. Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 35.
"Despite some benefits, all is not rosy with emissions-trading markets. For one, the sulfur program's national structure sticks in many people's craws. Free marketers like Fred Smith at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank emphasizing free market environmentalism, condemn the program as 'market socialism' because the government set the sulfur reduction goals--goals based on the assumption that sulfur-dioxide--generated acid rain was a severe crisis, killing forests and lakes across the nation. That crisis view isn't supported by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program. the government's own study on acid rain. 'The sulfur trading market diverts attention from what to do to how to do it. We shouldn't fall back on instruments to avoid discussing goals,' Smith says."

660. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 37.
"Whatever the future of emissions trading, pollution-rights markets can't work exactly like real markets. They are (emphasis in original) delivering at least some of the economists' dreams of cost-saving efficiencies. But the nature of air pollution makes it hard for each of us to choose in a market how much clean air is worth to us."

661. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 36-7.
"In the EPA auction, every buyer pays what he bids, but sellers with the lowest (emphasis in original) asking price get the highest (emphasis in original) bid. As Timothy Cason, an economics professor at the University of Southern California, explained in a Journal of Environmental Economics and Management article, that system encourages people to 'under-reveal their true cost of emission control...because lower asking prices increase the probability that a seller trades with high-bidding buyers.' This curious system was written into the act by Congress, emulating the structure of Treasury auctions. But unlike the Treasury bills market, the emissions market has more than one seller, which leaves room for unnaturally low sale prices."

662. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 36.
"Besides the inherent problems of national goals vs. local standards and the nature of the utility industry, the 1990 trading program also suffers from design peculiarities that stymie the market. The pollution-trading market lacks something that most regular markets have: more-or-less dependable property fights. To leave regulatory wiggle room, and to protect the EPA from possible future Fifth Amendment 'takings' problems, the Clean Air Act explicitly states that allowances are not (emphasis in original) real property rights. The government can change the rules of its market game at any time. New regulatory notions am always on the EPA's agenda, so making drastic changes in your operations expecting the regulatory regime to stay the same seems foolish."

663. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May, 96, 36.
"James Johnston, a former senior economist with Amoco Corp., says this lack of firm property fights is the key to the market's inactivity. 'The government's like Lucy holding out the football to Charlie Brown,' says Johnston, who is now with the Heartland Institute, a Chicago-based free market think tank. 'You never know when they'll pull it [allowance fights] away.' Allowance prices are so low for a simple reason, Johnston maintains: No one values them highly because their security as property can't be trusted."

664. Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May. 96, 36.
"But most state regulators haven't made the important decisions the emissions market requires. For example, how will the value of the emissions---or the profits made by trading them--be treated in the ratemaking process7 Without knowing beforehand what the end results of allowance trading might be, and without knowing if they'll be able to reap the profits of any smart trading decisions, utility executives tend to err on the side of caution. The result: no trading."

665. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 7.
"Although emissions trading sounds tidy and efficient in theory, there are a number of practical problems in its administration. First, emissions trading requires careful monitoring of plant emissions to determine the amount of pollution output. The states' implementation of EPA policy varies significantly in the quality of their air quality monitoring data some requiring detailed data while others require little or none."

666. Roger Ranfer (Prof., Phil., U. PA) in ENVIR. POLICY & LAW, June, 96, 183.
"Any regulatory program should be relatively simple to administer, and open trading is anything but simple. By introducing a third (emphasis in original) type of pollution credit now available for sale and use (i.e., ERCs, EAs, and now DERs), quantity-based systems are now approaching the point where even air pollution specialists no longer understand the distinction between credit types, and their specific applicability and characteristics."

667. Harvey Westbrook (Prof., Business, U. IL-Urbana) in IL BUS. REV., Oct., 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 15.
"Cost Minimization. Another potential stumbling block for the tradable discharge permits market may have to do with the fact that the principal market participants are public utilities. Many decisions of public utilities are subject to the approval of state regulators. In many states it is unclear who would benefit from savings generated through savvy dealings in tradable discharge permits--shareholders or rate payers. If a utility pursues a strategy of complete compliance with the law, it is likely that it can pass the additional costs on to customers; whereas, if it loses a lot of money speculating with tradable discharge permits, it is not clear whether the state public utility board would allow them to pass their losses on the consumer. The implication of this line of argument is that electric utilities may not pursue cost-minimizing strategies if there is any ambiguity with respect to their profit margins."

668. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY TOOLS (U.S. Office of Tech. Assessment), Sept., 95, 111.
"In practice, trading programs probably have not resulted in the cost savings that theory would predict. Most estimates of cost savings presume active trading until the economically efficient distribution of emissions control responsibilities is achieved. However, it appears that no program yet has had that level of trading, most have had limited trading, and some have had no trades at all. Thus savings estimates generally should be considered the likely upper bound of control cost savings from a particular trading program."

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669. Jean-Philippe Barde (Admin., OECD Envir. Directorate) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 95, 220-I.
"The tradeable permit approach has been developed in the United States for air pollution control, following an amendment of the Clean Air Act in 1977. The system has been further elaborated and made more sophisticated. culminating in a new revision of the Clean Air Act in 1990, containing provisions for a more systematic and enlarged implementation of emissions Wading. This volution is significant within a country where environmental policy is largely based on 'command and control' instruments. It is claimed that emission trading has provided substantial savings, but it is difficult to obtain a clear picture."

670. Jonathan Marshall (Staff) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Jan. 27, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), El.
"A third strategy, enacted in the 1990 Clean Air Act for sulfur dioxide emissions, is to give tradable permits to existing polluters. The Environmental Protection Agency favors this approach, partly because it arouses the fewest political objections from polluters. But Goulder shows it could be a big mistake. The first two approaches would raise billions of dollars the government could use to cut other costly taxes. A program of grandfathered permits, on the other hand, would raise energy prices without any offsetting benefits."

671. Jean-Philippe Barde (Admin., OECD Envir. Directorate) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 95. 220.
"There are, however, a number of difficulties in the application of tradeable permits: I. The main problem is the initial allocation of permits: they can be allocated free of charge ('grandfathering') or they can be sold. In practice, permits have always been grandfathered according to the past emission records of sources. This implicitly assumes that initial rights to use the environment are granted to polluters; 2. Another issue is the complexity of such systems which require in fact a series of rules and sophisticated infrastructures to monitor transactions. When rules are too complex. transaction costs may become high; 3. The distributive implications of tradeable permits are increasingly of concern, groups of citizens fear that pollution will simply be transferred to another region or that industry profits will increase while pollution levels will remain the same; and 4. Finally, there may be strong political opposition to allowing market threes to regulate the environment, although existing tradeable permit systems operate under strict regulatory controls."

672. Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand., London Sch. Eco. & Pol. Sci.), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L. LAW, 96. 141.
"Permits also ensure that emissions do not exceed a certain level, although they cannot guarantee the costs as well as a carbon tax can and so are subject to energy price fluctuations."

673. Douglas A. Decker (Energy Mgt. Specialist. Johnson Control, Inc., WI) in WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 577-8.
"Increased competition will come in part from a deregulated electric utility industry. The Energy Policy Act opens up the electric utility industry to competition which should bode well in the long term for price stability and energy efficiency incentives. At the heart of this movement toward increased competition are provisions for exempt wholesale generators (EWGs). EWGs will be able to sell electricity to utilities and, according to the act. must have fair access to transmission lines. Just as deregulation of the telephone industry led to restructuring along smaller, regional, and functional business lines, many experts believe this attempt to open up competition in the utility industry will spur development of separate power generation, transmission, and distribution companies."

674. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.). ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 201-2.
"Despite these, and many other, unresolved issues, the industry is being nudged toward greater competition. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 gives FERC the authority to order wholesale wheeling. The California Public Utilities Commission has even proposed to phase in retail wheeling by 2002. Some steps are being taken to establish markets, including electricity futures markets. A competitive market for electricity will have many advantages over the existing situation, but the transition may be challenging."

675. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, I.
"Increases in energy efficiency, decontrol of oil and gas prices, and changing OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) politics and global oil markets have resulted in lower energy prices. At the same time, the changing regulatory framework for electricity is opening new opportunities for nonutility generation of power, which could include RETs.'

676. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 202.
"Increased market competition may help differentiate energy markets by value, potentially opening up new higher value market niches for which particular RETs can effectively compete."

677. Ralph Cavanagh (Staff. Nat'l. Resources Defense Council), RISKY
BUS.	(Nat'l. Resources Defense Council Report), Sept., 96, 4.
"State and federal regulators are now restructuring the electric
industry, with support from most affected parties and much of the industry itself. The old generation monopolies are disappearing, and utilities are losing any ability to shield their power plants from competition or to secure guaranteed cost recovery for pollution-related costs. In competitive generation markets, the competitors must recover their costs in the marketplace itself; price regulators will not be available to provide any supplementary assistance. Increasingly competitive markets will make environmental risks more visible and force explicit decisions on who will bear them .'

678. Ralph Cavanagh (Staff. Nat'l. Resources Defense Council). RISKY
BUS.	(Nat'l. Resources Defense Council Report), Sept., 96, 4.
"Today's electric utilities typically hold geographically defined
monopolies over both electric distribution and generation, and recover all or most of their costs through regulated prices charged to customers who lack realistic access to other suppliers. Whenever these utilities have found it necessary to reduce pollution emissions. any associated costs could simply be passed through to captive customers without affecting the utilities: net revenues. This practice olden converted individual electricity customers into uncompensated and involuntary insurers of the generators' environmental liabilities. As a result, society unwittingly has tended to overinvest in costly cleanups and underinvest in cleaner alternatives."

679. The Energy Fndn. (San Francisco, CA), 1995 REPORT, 95. 14.
"U.S. utilities complain that the threat of competition prevents them from making significant investments in anything new. Utility research and development budgets are being slashed, for example. But the prospect of competition is exactly what should spur the utilities into action. The modern industrial company needs to make significant investments in new products and in developing new markets. Imagine lntel Corporation responding to new competition by slashing its R&D. Imagine Microsoft ignoring an enormous potential market. It is difficult, in fact, to name any industry besides the utility industry with such tiny budgets of R&D, or to name any other industry willfully ignoring the opportunity to break into such a significant new market."

680. Andy Kydes (Staff, U.S. Dept. Energy) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 202.
"There are clear trends toward competition in electricity markets. The wholesale power market is becoming increasingly competitive. In many states, when a need for new resources is identified. the competition among utility and nonutility plants, utility demand-side management (DSM) programs, and DSM programs provided by energy service companies is fierce. Many utilities have instituted integrated resource planning (IRP) programs. which attempt to weigh the costs and benefits of all available resource options, and many utilities are using competitive bidding processes to acquire new resources."

681. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 225-6.
"Green pricing proposals to support RETs typically place a surcharge of perhaps 10 percent on the monthly utility bill of voluntarily (emphasis in original) participating customers. The surcharge funds are then used to pay the difference in cost between the renewables and conventional utility power. 'This provides greater choice to consumers and fits in well with the structural changes now taking place in the electricity sector."

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682. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,480-1.
"Another approach proposed by David Moskovitz, a former member of Maine's Public Service Commission, is green pricing.' Moskovitz suggests that utilities offer their customers the choice of paying a small amount more every month on their utility bill to finance renewable development. The funds could be administered by a 'green' board of directors, says Moskovitz. composed of environmentalists who would review proposals for specific projects. In this way, says Moskovitz, environmentalists could influence decisions before they go beyond the boardroom, by imposing strict environmental safeguards on renewable projects the utility proposes building."

683. Ralph Cavanagh (Staff Nat'l. Resources Defense Council), RISKY BUS. (Nat'l. Resources Defense Council Report), Sept., 96, 12.
"A striking 90 percent of utility customers say they believe it is very important or somewhat important that their utility provide electricity. generated by renewable fuels. and substantial majorities would pay more to achieve that result."

684. Jon Pendergast (Chair, Electricity Consumers Resource Council) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 123.
"Finally, support for the environment is widespread. In fact, the environment 'sells' and, therefore, opportunities for profit will exist. 'Green' pricing and other commercially viable opportunities for protecting the environment will emerge in a competitive marketplace. But regulatory barriers in the current industry structure prevent those opportunities. Greater improvements in the efficient use of electricity and resource diversity can materialize in a competitive market because every end user will have access to more than one supplier. If one supplier cannot satisfy demand, another will."

685. Jesse Tatum (Prof., Sci., Technology, & Society, Ml Tech. U.), ENERGY POSSIBILITIES. 95.74-5.
"The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA), elicited a wealth of innovative small scale electric power production efforts after its passage in 1978 and gradual implementation at the state level over succeeding years."

686. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 15.
"Several utility companies have already made substantial commitments to renewable energy. Pacific Gs & Electric is aggressively testing photovoltaics for a variety of off-grid applications like warning lights on tall towers, illuminated highway signs, and gas and water meters. Idaho Power is offering a program to install and maintain photovoltaic power systems for homes and other applications distant from their distribution lines. Sacramento Municipal Utility District plans to install fourteen thousand solar water heaters top customers' homes and businesses. Their work, along with that of a growing number of other utilities, has created a steady, growing market for renewable energy technologies."

687. Merribel Ayres (Ex. Dir., Nat'l. lndep. Energy Producers) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE. May 15, 96, 170.
"Today's new independent facilities are substantially cleaner than older power plants, which makes a significant positive contribution to a cleaner environment. Indeed, today's new generating facilities constructed by independent producers are six times cleaner, on average, than older utility plants. These plants already meet or exceed Clean Air Act standards for the year 2000."

688. Ralph Cavanagh (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Council), RISKY BUS. (Nat'l. Resources Defense Council Report), Sept., 96, 3.
"Over the last two decades, electric power plants have reduced many of their pollution emissions significantly. Tougher federal standards and the move toward efficient natural gas combined-cycle units ensure that today's
average new plant is far cleaner than the behemoths built twenty or thirty years ago. Meanwhile, the visible soot that once poured from smokestacks all but disappeared with the addition of bag houses and electrostatic
precipitators.'

689. Ralph Cavanagh (Stuff'. Nat'l. Resources Defense Council), RISKY BUS. (Nat'l. Resources Defense Council Report). Sept., 96, 3.
"Thanks in part to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. sulfur dioxide emissions from power plants dropped by more than one-third between 1980 and 1952 these emissions represent the chief cause of both acid rain and excessive levels of' fine airborne particles?'

690. Jon Pendergast (Chair, Electricity Consumers Resource Council) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 123.
"Traditional regulation has not been a willing or effective steward o( the environment. As required by law, utilities usually achieve the necessary environmental standards. But vertically integrated monopolists are not properly motivated to achieve truly least-cost compliance that real market discipline would ensure. Utilities did not do not--enthusiastically embrace the noble principles of demand-side management, nor the diversification of their resource mix with renewable resources. Yes, a lot of lip service is devoted to 'green' causes, and, in many states, a lot of ratepayer money was committed to shareholder 'incentives,' but the electric utility industry has not produced a wholly responsive and efficient environmental practice."

691. Ronald McMahan (Energy Consultant) in HSE HRGS: SCI. COMMITFEE, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, Apr. 22, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), I.
"Under a full and open competition scenario, renewables will actually lose market share falling to unstrained only by technology, geography and dispatchability. Under this scenario the maximum contribution of renewables would be only 11% of total generation. The price of this 'subsidy intensification,' however would be more than $200 birating current assumptions about existing subsidies and successes in commercialization, renewable's market share could as much as double in the coming fifteen years to approximately 4% of the country's generation mix. However, the cost, ket test, and will survive only in highly specialized niches. Finally, trying to 'force' renewables into the generation mix either through massive subsidies or through fossil penalties, will be economically devastating, and will not really accomplish a significant market penetration."

692. Michael Tennis (Member, Union Concerned Scientists) in HSE HRGS: TECH, ENVIRON, & FINANCIAL ISSUES RAISED BY INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE ELECTRICITY MKTS, Mar. 28, 96, 52.
'In Iowa for example, the state legislature passed what it calls Alternative Energy Production legislation, mandating that investor-owned utilities in the state acquire approximately 3 percent of their energy requirements from renewable energy resources. This law was passed with the understanding that alternate energy production would improve the environmental performance of the state and provide some rural economic development opportunities. This law, modest though it is, has been the subject of vigorous opposition from the investor-owned utilities in Iowa, because they feel that it raises their costs of production in the short-term and makes them less competitive with utilities in other states and with municipal and rural electric cooperative utilities within Iowa."

693. Sam Raskin (Calif. Energy Comm.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 441.
"Because utilities pass fuel costs on to ratepayers, they lack incentive to develop new technologies that could improve the energy efficiency of new and existing power plant facilities. The future bidding process for electric power generation resources may increase the incentive for utilities to improve energy efficiency."

694. C. Flavin & N. Lenssen (World Watch Inst.) in DISCOVERY & INNOVATION, Mar., 95, 3.
"A basic blueprint for an efficient, competitive and environmentally responsive power industry can be woven from the many strands of utility reform now found scattered around the world."

695. Blair G. Swezey (Prin. Policy Advisor, Nat'l. Renewable Energy Lab) in SOLAR TODAY, Jan.-Feb., 97, 21.
"While analysts expect increased competition in electricity supply to result in lower rates, it will also mean that customers. most for the first time, will be able to choose their electricity suppliers. Anticipating this competition, some electric utility companies have begun to develop and offer specialized services to their customers.  One type of service in particular--a renewable-energy-based or 'green pricing' service -- is receiving increasing attention. By offering green pricing, utilities hope to be the electric service provider of choice to those customers with strong environmental values."

79

696. Daniel M. Berman & John T. O'Connor (Visiting Scholar, Sch. of Pub., U. CA-Davis, & Pres., Greenworks, Inc.) in WHO OWNS THE SUN?, 96, XVII-XVI!I.
Our primary thesis is that local ownership and democratic control of energy are the necessary, if not sufficient, conditions for a solar economy. We pay special attention to the century-old and too often unappreciated public-power movement in the United States. Given the new wave of deregulation in electric power and the falling price of photovoltaics and wind turbines, we argue that municipally owned electric companies and citizen electric cooperatives constitute an appropriate model for the governance of energy ."

697. C. Flavin & N. Lenssen (World Watch Inst.) in DISCOVERY & INNOVATION, Mar., 95, 34.
"Under our blueprint, local distribution utilities would maintain and integrate local wires, transformers, and other equipment, bargain with independent power producers to purchase wholesale electricity, and help finance demand-side efficiency improvements. The distribution companies would periodically prepare integrated resource plans similar to those produced by some vertically integrated utilities today, selecting an appropriate mix of power service options, including demand-side management and locally-based power generators."

698. C. Flavin & N. Lenssen (World Watch Inst.) in DISCOVERY & INNOVATION, Mar., 95, 4.
"With the right incentives, local distributors can invest in a full range of cost-effective energy services, working closely with energy conservation companies and with sellers of rooftop solar systems and other household generators. In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, for example. where a favorable political climate exists, both public and private utilities have effectively pursued such opportunities. Puget Power and Light, a private utility, and the Emerald People's Utility District, a public one, for example, are investing in everything from more efficient lighting to electronic power controls and rooftop solar systems."

699. C. Flavin & N. Lenssen (World Watch Inst.) in DISCOVERY & INNOVATION, Mar.. 95, 4.
"As demonstrated in Sacramento and other cities, publicly owned utilities are among the pioneers of a new model of local power distribution. Because they are directly responsible to their customers (who are also their owners), getting public utilities to change direction is a straightforward policy decision, uncomplicated by the regulatory formulas needed to guide private utilities."

700. C. Flavin & N. Lenssen (World Watch Inst.) in DISCOVERY & INNOVATION, Mar., 95, 3.
"The most critical and controversial question now confronting many countries is how best to organize and regulate the local distribution of power to individual buildings and factories. Long considered the poor stepchild of the electricity business, local distribution is in fact central to any effort to create a truly competitive and sustainable power industry. As a result of the range of innovations now underway in decentralized electricity technologies, power distribution has the potential to become the most dynamic component of the entire business."

701. Daniel M. Berman & John T. O'Connor (Visiting Scholar, Sch. of Pub., U. CA-Davis, & Pres., Greenworks, Inc.) in WHO OWNS THE SUN?, 96, 240.
"In this book we argue that public ownership with local democratic control of utilities is a necessary if not a sufficient condition for a solar economy in the United States. We believe this for two simple reasons: unlike a large capitalist enterprise, a publicly owned utility is not (emphasis in original) compelled to constantly increase sales in order to increase profit margins: and stock prices. Therefore, publicly owned utilities have no inherent drive to promote constantly increasing electricity sales. If well managed, a public entity can supply electricity more cheaply, because it doesn't pay inflated salaries and. most importantly, because stockholders don't siphon off 10 percent each year in dividends. As SMUD and Osage Municipal Utilities demonstrate. publicly owned and democratically governed utilities can be more efficient, in both a business and an environmental sense. then privately owned utilities."

702. Daniel M. Berman & John T. O'Connor (Visiting Scholar, Sch. of Pub., U. CA-Davis, & Pres., Greenworks, Inc.) in WHO OWNS THE SUN?, 96, 101.
"Municipal utilities, though they generate only 3 percent of total electric power, function as a moral and financial yardstick to the rest of the utility industry. As if to blur the basic distinction, private utilities now refer to themselves not as 'private,' but as 'investor-owned.' The goal of citizens should be to come as close as possible to direct election o utility boards. Members of state PUCs should be chosen by direct election rather than gubernatorial or presidential appointment, to assure maximum democratic oversight of electrical monopolies. The further removed that such monopolies are from democratic control, the greater the possibility for abuses, whether they are publicly or privately owned."

703. Daniel M. Berman & John T. O'Connor (Visiting Scholar, Sch. of Pub., U. CA-Davis, & Pres., Greenworks, Inc.) in WHO OWNS THE SUN?, 96, 99-100.
"Obviously, some public-power systems are more democratic than others. The New York State Power Authority is governed by a board of trustees appointed by the governor and subject to confirmation by the New York State Senate. The most democratic public utilities have governing boards chosen by direct election of the people. Sacramento's municipal utility is governed by a five-person board elected by the citizens of the district SMUD serves; if the constituents are dissatisfied with outages and rate hikes, or frightcried about a nuclear plant, they have a mechanism for debating solutions and choosing leaders who will implement those decisions."

704. C. Flavin & N. Lenssen (World Watch last.) in DISCOVERY & INNOVATION, Mar., 95, 5.
'"Of course, no single model for electric utility restructuring is likely to work equally well everywhere, and new approaches will have to be adapted to local economic and social conditions."

705. Kenneth Lay (CEO, Enron Corp.) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 42.
"Electric power is the sleeping giant of consumer issues. 1 don't know of any other public policy issue that will have such a far-reaching impact on American households and American businesses as bringing competition to the electric utility industry. Few people are aware of just how enormous the retail electricity market really is and how ripe this market is for competition and consumer savings. Mr. Chairman, the retail electricity market is a $200 billion a year business. That is larger than the telecommunications market. It is larger than the natural gas, credit card. cable, and on-line computer markets combined."

706. Thomas Bliley (U.S. Rep., VA) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 6.
"The electricity industry is a $200 billion a year industry. Even small savings in the cost of electricity can have significant impacts on individual consumers and profound impacts o the U.S. economy."

707. Roy Malonson (Chair, Acres Home Citizens, Houston Chamber of Commerce) in DALLAS MORNING NEWS, Feb. 17, 97, 21A.
"Virtually every aspect of our lives is dependent on a reliable supply of electricity. No other industry is as essential to our safety and well-being."

708. ELCON REPORT (Electricity Consumers Resource Council) #2, 96, !.
"Quickly introducing competition into the U.S. electric system would have huge positive effects on the national economy, increasing employment by one to three million jobs and adding 2.6 percent to the gross domestic product, according to a study by the free-market consumer group, Citizens for a Sound Economy Foundation."

709- POWER BRIEFS (Coalition for Customer Choice in Electricity Report), 97, 3-
'Across the U.S. economy, competition in the electricity industry would result in benefits valued at almost $110  billion a year, which is a tremendous potential for job creation, wage increases and reduced prices for everyday goods  and services---Paul Becknet, President, Citizens For a Sold Economy Foundation."

710- POWER BRIEFS (Coalition for Customer Choice in Electricity Report), 97, 3.
"Reduced electricity prices will not only implement the economic equivalent of a major tax cut, they will unleash a new era of productivity and creativity in this very large and vital industry to lead America to a new millennium. Kenneth Lay, Chair Enron Corporation"

80

71 I. POWER BRIEFS (Coalition for Customer Choice in Electricity Report), 97, 2.
"The potential benefits of customer choice in electricity are substantial. A joint study by scholars from MIT, Tulane University, and the University of Pennsylvania estimates that consumers would save as much as $100 billion per year. In addition, studies show that lower electricity prices will make U.S. industry more productive, increase our country's international competitiveness, and create between 1.1 - 3.1 million new jobs."

712. Kenneth Lay (CEO, Enron Corp.) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 43.
"Lower electricity costs will have profound effects across the economic spectrum. Lower electric bill for the military, post office. and other major government users will benefit taxpayers. American industry will become more profitable and become stronger competitors in the international marketplace. Consumers every month will have more discretionary dollars to spend in other directions or to save and invest, which will further strengthen the U.S. economy."

713. Kenneth Lay (CEO, Enron Corp.) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96~ 44.
"it is time for Congress to flip on the switch for nondiscriminatory open-access competition to inaugurate customer choice in electricity. We will not only implement the economic equivalent of a major tax cut, we will unleash a new era of productivity and creativity in this very large and vital industry to lead America into the new millennium."

714. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 358.
"Electricity deregulation. (emphasis in original) Somehow this has escaped general public notice; but as of 1992, any company can manufacture power for wholesale in the United States. The European Union is also on the verge of a deregulated, open-borders power market. Decontrols should usher in a new premise of seeking least-cost power, a notion environmentalists have rightly advocated for years. Least-cost power is normally attained by minimizing fuel input. Douglas Houston, an economist at the University of Kansas, has predicted that once least-cost energy competition gets rolling the traditional central utility will 'crumble under its own weight,' outfoxed by more nimble, energy-conscious predators.'

715. James Rogers (Pres., Cinergy Corp.) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE. May 5. 96, 22.
"In the fully competitive electricity marketplace. anyone will be able to build a power plant, and sell the power to anyone at a price established by the competition among sellers of electric energy for the patronage of customers. Thus, in the future, customers--not politicians, bureaucrats, or corporate executives--will establish the price for electricity. Getting government regulators out of the business of deciding what power plants are built, and when, and by whom, will be a great boon to consumers and to the public interest. I have great faith in the American marketplace and firmly believe that, if you can get command and control out of the generation business, you'll quickly build a more efficient market that is driven by the desire of the customer to purchase a better product at a reasonable price."

716. Chis Albrecht (Staff, Nat'l. Retail Federation) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 33
"Deregulation will lead to a competitive environment which will benefit all customers. The benefits to be derived from competition are evident in the deregulation of the natural gas, airline, trucking and telecommunication industries When pressure builds for electric rate relief, regulated monopolies react by giving relief to large customers who threaten to self-generate or to leave the service area of the monopoly.  Everyone else pays for the benefit received by the few customers who have the economic power to negotiate discounts."

717. Kenneth Lay (CEO, Enron Corp.) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 43.
"The potential consumer savings from a competitive restructuring of the electric industry could be between $60 and $80 billion per year. Other estimates have been as high as $100billion a year. We think these savings can be achieved by reforming both the retail and the wholesale side of the business. That way all consumer classes will benefit. What I am describing is, in effect, equivalent to a cross-the-board annual tax cut for Americans. 'Every household and business that pays electric utility rates could save 30 to 40 percent on their utility bills. and This is not a temporary 'quick fix:' it is embedded for an open-ended future. In other words, reform the electric power system, bring it into the modern age, end the monopoly of the utilities, and give American consumers the equivalent of one of the largest tax cuts in history."

718. Russ Mykytyn (Staff, Utility Promotions Group, Inc.) in VISION 2001: ENERGY & ENVIR. ENGINEERING, 96, 209.
"Consider how competition affects the price of any product. In a competitive market, if price alone is allowed to be the sole factor influencing a buying decision, the margin on that product will stabilize at the lowest possible level. The price of electricity will be subject to this same dynamic."

719. POWER BRIEFS (Coalition for Customer Choice in Electricity Report), 97, 1.
"The current monopoly system for selling electricity distorts prices and is costly to consumers. Why9 Because monopoly utilities have no incentive to save money. When an electric utility builds a power plant, government regulators review and approve the costs of the plant and allow the utility to add a markup for profit. But what if the utility can buy electricity more cheaply from another source? Shouldn't it close down the more expensive plant and buy the cheaper power for its customers/It should--but it won't. The financial incentive is to keep its plant running. There is no incentive to abandon the more expensive plant and buy cheaper power since the regulatory system doesn't allow customers to shop around for cheaper electricity. Without customer choice, consumers pay higher prices."

720. POWER BRIEFS (Coalition for Customer Choice in Electricity Report), 97, 3.
"When America accomplishes the broadest possible competition in the electric power industry, some experts believe it could reduce electric rates by 30 percent or 40 percent.--Richard Abdoo, Chairman, Wisconsin Energy Corporation."

721. ELCON REPORT (Electricity Consumers Resource Council) #2, 96, 4.
"Competition would force down the price in the off-peak season, leading to greater use of existing capacity. Capacity could be increased 13-25 percent per year without adding any new generation or transmission facilities. This would require a drop in price of 1.8 cents/kWh from the national average price of 6.9 cents/kWh, according to the study. In the long run, new technologies, along with pricing flexibility, will force down the price 3 cents from 6.9 cents/kWh to about 3.9 cents/kWh. 'This implies significant consumer benefits for all ratepayers in all classes,' the study reported. 'Consumers win big."'

722. Thomas Bliley (U.S. Rep., VA) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 6.
"Real competition for customers forces business to keep costs down, pay more attention to customer service, and look for innovative ways to improve their product.  Regulation, on the other hand, does not result in the lowest cost goods, stifles innovation and does not place a premium on customer service."

723. Bill MacKenzie (Staff), OREGONIAN, Sept. 18, 96 (Online, Nexis 4/2/97), C 1 ,
"As concerns mount about global warming from greenhouse-gas emissions and other pollutants, the council said, big polluters are likely to face emissions controls and pollution taxes.  Those controls could cost more than what utilities could recover from customers."

81

724. IPCC Summary for Policy Makers Report in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95,392.
"Them are large differences in the costs o-f reducing GHG emissions among countries due to their state of economic development, infrastructure choices, and natural resource base. This indicates that international cooperation could significantly reduce the global cost of reducing emissions. Research suggests that, in principle, substantial savings would be possible if emissions are reduced where it is cheapest to do so. In practice, this requires international mechanisms ensuring appropriate capital flows and technology transfers between countries. Conversely, a failure to achieve international cooperation could compromise unilateral attempts by a country or a group of countries to limit GHGs emissions."

725. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 291.
"The United States is the largest national contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. Its per capita emissions are more than 20 times as large as India's, and more than twice those for the EC. It accounts for approximately a quarter of total world emissions. While this is a very large share, it is clear that even the United States acting alone to cut emissions would have a limited impact on total emissions. This is even more the case. since over the next 50 years it is reasonably certain that the United States' share of the total will substantially decline. as the developing economics grow and increase their use of fossil fuels.'

726. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco.. Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 310-1 I.
"The general view is that unilateral action. say by introducing carbon taxation, would involve costs but no benefits. For most countries. the share of total world emissions is small, so that even a substantial reduction by it would have a negligible effect on total emissions."

727. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 291.
"A key characteristic of preventative policies is that their effectiveness depends upon international agreement and cooperation. Whatever one nation does to reduce emissions (or enhance sinks) will have little effect on global atmospheric concentrations, and therefore on climate change prospects, unless at least a majority of other nations takes similar action. The enhanced greenhouse problem is an example of a reciprocal externality."

728. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 94.
"Global warming is an international problem that will require extensive and unprecedented cooperation...No single country, acting alone. will be able decisively to affect the problem."

729. Bonita Downing (Staff) in PETROLEUM TIMES. Aug. 2.96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 5.
"China is set to become the world's biggest carbon dioxide polluter, second only to the U.S. Nevertheless, in his letter to John Gummer, BNIF's director-general said that the developing economies were unlikely to compromise economic growth for the sake of environmental protection."

730. Mary Walker (Fmr. Asst. Sec., U.S. Dept. Energy) in CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 24, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), 19.
"According to the International Energy Agency, as much as 85 percent of the projected increase in man-made global emissions of carbon dioxide will come from developing countries and emerging economies in Eastern Europe.  What's more, these countries will have an economic incentive to refuse to agree to future greenhouse gas reductions.  For example, as its share of industrial output rises.  China would become the world's largest source of carbon dioxide, emitting nearly double the amoun the U.S. emits and more than triple what Western Europe produces."

731. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 291-2.
"In India and China, emissions per unit income are much higher than in the industrial nations.  However, given the low income levels and the technologies employed, the scope for increased efficiency in energy use in such countries is seen as relatively limited for the foreseeable future.  At the stage of development at which they are, significant reductions in energy, i.e., fossil fuel, use would be seen as prohibitively costly in terms of material living standard improvements foregone."

732. C. T. CarIcy (Prof., Mech. Engineering., MS St. U.) in TIMES-p1CAYUNE, Mar. 18, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), B6.
"It would also mean that reductions in carbon dioxide emissions achieved by the United States and other industrial countries would be overwhelmed by increased emissions from the developing world. According to the International Energy Agency, as much as 85 percent of the increase in projected manmade emissions of carbon dioxide will come from the developing world and Eastern Europe."

733 Ellen Hale (Staff) in GANNET NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), SI 1.
"America is the largest consumer of energy, and industrialized nations now account for the lion's share of the world's energy budget. But within 50 years, as much as three-fourths of greenhouse gases will be emitted by developing nations. Critics use this to argue the unfairness of the treaty, which would require only developed nations to adhere to a fossil fuel emissions budget. 'Meanwhile, China and India and all those developing countries don't have to do anything, and they're going to be burning coal and shipping us goods,' said Thomas Gale Moore, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford."

734. Marc Chupka (Asst. See., U.S. Dept. Energy), FED. DOCUMENT CLEARING HOUSE CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY, July 19, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 1.
"Over the next century, the bulk of emissions growth will occur in the non-OECD developing countries. While OECD carbon emissions are projected to grow by about 25% over the next 20 years, developing country emissions are projected to more than double."

735. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 3 13.
"Since greenhouse-effect concerns arose, commentators have hammered endlessly on the notion that the First World is the global menace: Through the 1980s the United States. the former Soviet Union, and Europe produced slightly more than half of world carbon emissions. Projections were that the balance would not shift toward the developing nations till the twenty-first century. Instead this happened in 1992. That year the Third World produced 52 percent of global carbon emissions, supplanting the First World as the greenhouse malefactor. Since 1970, Third World carbon emissions have increased nearly three times as rapidly as First World emissions."

736. Henry Linden (Staff) in JRNL. COMMERCE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 6A.
"The United States essentially would have to abandon all use of fossil fuels by 2015 just to make up for the projected increase in CO2 emissions by China and India. Yet the United States will be responsible for only I0 percent of the increase of 3.2 billion metric tons in annual global carbon emissions between 1995 and 2015, whereas the developing countries will be responsible for nearly 70 percent."

737. Leyla Boulton (Staff) in FINANCIAL TIMES, Nov. 1 I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 6.
"Crucial to tackling global warming will be the developed world's imagination in helping other countries improve energy efficiency. Although the industrialized world accepts prime responsibility for the problem, its efforts could soon be made irrelevant by increased emissions from fast-growing countries such as China."

738. Henry Lindon (Staff), JRNL. OF COMMERCE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 6A.
"The United States essentially would have to abandon all use of fossil fuels by 2015 just to make up for the projected increase in CO2 emissions by China and India. Yet the United States will be responsible for only 10 percent of the increase of 3.2 billion metric tons in annual global carbon emissions between 1995 and 2015, whereas the developing countries will be responsible for nearly 70 percent."

739. David Montgomery (Charles River Assn., Wash., DC) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 76.
"By the year 2100, the growth in China and the rest of the world will make those countries responsible for perhaps two-thirds of global emissions, i.e., the bulk of the emissions over the next century are going to be coming from these countries, not from the industrial countries, and certainly not from the United States. The United States and the rest of the industrial world could vanish from the face of the earth, as far as carbon dioxide emissions go, and it would make precious little difference to the total concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by the year 2100."

82

740. Mary Walker (Fmr. Asst. See., U.S. Dept. Energy) in CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 24, 97 (OnLine, Nexis, 4/1/97), 19.
"For the United States, the danger is that developing countries will not be required to do anything about reducing emissions. Their output would overwhelm reductions made by industrial nations--just the opposite of what a new treaty is supposed to achieve. The fact is, developing countries, as a group, will produce the majority of greenhouse emissions in future years."

741. Ross Gelbspan (Staff) in HARPER'S, Dec. 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 3 I.
"Even were the United States to halve its own carbon dioxide contribution, this cutback would soon be overwhelmed by the coming development of industry and housing and schools in China and India and Mexico for all their billions of citizens."

742. Martin Quick (Chair, Architects & Engineers for Soc. Responsibility), THE GUARDIAN, Mar. 28, 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 23.
"Countries such as China as China and India with large populations and rapidly developing economies having huge coal stocks, cold offset any gains made in the West in reducing greenhouse gas emissions if their development follows the less desirable paths previously followed in the industrialized countries."

743. Nebojsa Nakicenovic (Staff lnt'l. Inst., Applied Systems Analysis, Australia) in DEADALUS, Summer, 96. 108.
"Should a transition to a lower carbon intensity in developing countries not occur in the coming decades, the likely reductions in carbon emissions in the industrialized countries will be offset, hampering efforts to halt the global increase in carbon emissions."

744. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,313-4.
"China, which now emits 13 percent of world greenhouse gases, possesses an essentially unlimited supply of low-grade carboniferous coal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that at current rates of increase in Chinese coal-power production, by the year 2025 China alone will emit more greenhouse gases than Canada, Japan, and the United States combined."

745. William F. Martin (Fmr. U.S. Deputy Sec. of Energy) et al., MAINTAINING ENERGY SECURITY IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT: A REPORT TO THE TRILATERAL COMMISSION, 89.
"Within the next 15 years, greenhouse gas emissions from developing countries are expected to double, rising from 28 to 45 percent of the world total. India and China, which now produce less than one-third the emissions of OECD countries, will account for a larger increase in annual emissions from 1990 to 2010 than all OECD countries combined."

746. Dale Heydlauff(Rep., Am. Electric Power) in HSE HRGS: COMM. ON COMMERCE, Mar. 21, 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 1.
"To believe that the problem of potential climate change, to the extent it may become a problem, can be 'fixed' solely by the efforts of the developed countries is naive at best and misleading at worst. Second, the 20% reduction in CO2 by 2005 seems to have been pulled out of thin air. We know of no scientific justification or economic studies that would warrant such a Draconian requirement."

747. Pat Keegan (Dir., Climate Change Program, IIEC) in E-NOTES (lnt'l. Inst. for Energy Conservation Newsletter), Nov., 96, 3.
"While more than 150 countries have ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and generated numerous plans and reports, few countries have adopted substantial climate-action policies, and fewer yet have successfully implemented them. Only one or two countries, besides the transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe, will succeed in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000."

748. ENVIRONMENT, Mar., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 12.
"In 1994, as required by the convention, 15 of these parties submitted national communications reporting current and projected emissions and describing national plans for reducing them. These communications showed that many developed countries were unlikely to return their emissions to 1990 levels by 2000, let alone achieve the stronger national targets the majority had adopted, unless additional reduction measures were implemented. More significantly, 6 out of the I0 countries that provided projections beyond 2000 for the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, forecasted continued growth in emissions."

749. Robert Means (USI, Inc., Wash., DC) in EVALUATING CLIMATE ACTION PLANS, 96, 83-4.
"Conservation conceivably is a role for the advanced countries but is not the soluti6n or China and India. It has to be non-fossil

750. Nakicen0vic (Staff, Int'l. Inst., Applied Systems Analysis, in DEADALUS, Summer, 96, 106.
"Should China and India continue to rely heavily on coal as their ,source of energy, continuing to lessen the carbon intensity of ' energy in these countries will prove difficult."

751. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Ec0., Australian Nat'l. U.), BILITY & POLICY, 95, 275.
"All countries bum fossil fuels releasing carbon dioxide into the where all emissions mix globally. The climate-relevant the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in the origin of any particular molecule of carbon dioxide relevant to its role in the world climate system. Driven by increasing of fossil fuel combustion, global carbon dioxide concentrations are, increasing. According to the basic physics of the world climate system, increasing carbon dioxide concentrations imply, other things equal, a warmer world. All nations are involved in driving up atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations: all nations experience the climate change and its consequences."

752.  Ros Taplin (Prof., Climatic Impacts, MacQuarie U., Australia) in TIME SCALES & ENVIR. CHANGE, 96, 123.
"Climate change thus has global causes and global consequences, and requires a coordinated global community response in order to deal with its predicted impacts. Climate change policymaking belongs to the category of large-scale policy and is 'unconventional' or 'supra-political' (Schulaman 1980); it has been referred to as an 'extraordinary societal undertaking."

'	753. Robert White (Fmr. Chief, U.S. Weather Bureau) in ISSUES IN SCI.& TECH., Fall. 96, 38.
"Even if the temperature regime and the implied changes in precipitation occur at the higher end of the projected range, adaptation is still a key way to cope with climate change as its regional and distribution effects become apparent. International assistance could be invoked to deal with the most egregious of these conditions, as indeed it is today in the face of persistent droughts or floods."

754. Ritt Bjerragaard (Member, Globe Europe Network Conference), RAPID, Dec. 5, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), I.
"Our international agreements must do justice to the fact that different countries have different potential to provide significant reductions in CO2 emissions, and they must properly reflect these differences. If they do not, they will not be accepted by all parties. If we want to achieve significant reductions in CO2 emissions after the turn of the century, e will require more sophisticated international instruments than we have ever had in the past."

755. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 303-4.
"First. negotiation of credible agreements is more difficult where there are many countries involved. An agreement is credible 0nly if all potential participants believe that its terms will be adhered to by all. This raises questions of compliance. monitoring and enforcement, Second. Given that countries actually differ in Size, income level, abatement costs etc., all would not gain equally from participation."

756. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 3 I 4.
'The convening of, and the outcomes at, UNCED suggests that while the need to address global problems rising from economy-environment interconnections is widely accepted, detailed agreement on the nature of the appropriate policy responses is limited. Further, there is clearly reluctance on the part of national government to incur costs associated with policy responses.  Either the widely shared perception that there is a sustainability problem will cease to exist. or debate over policy responses will continue. The first of these possibilities appears unlikely."

757. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 314.
"The debate concerns social decision making in the face of uncertainty. The problem is especially difficult because the society in question is the whole of humanity. At this global level, social institutions are weak in comparison with those at the national level (Mendez 1992). Policy will evolve largely through interactions between nation states, based on perceptions of national interest."

758. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 307.
"In principle, an international consensus could involve a two-stage commitment to tradeable permits--tradeable national permits to be subdivided and allocated within nations by tradeable individual source permits. A nation that sought to meet the target corresponding to its permit-holding by the use of the tax instrument would face the problem that this instrument is not a dependable means of realizing a target."

759. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 277.
"Since effective policies to protect critical environmental assets will require a high level of international cooperation, some international redistribution will be necessary to create the incentive structure compatible with such cooperation. Just as in a national economy the pattern of production and consumption cannot be left to market forces to determine, so the pattern of international trade needs to be socially managed. The major problem with this prescription is that there currently exists no world analogue to the government of a nation state to which the task of social management could be assigned."

760. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 307-8.
"The discussion of alternative policy instruments for a global carbon dioxide emissions reduction target against criteria such as feasibility, efficiency, dependability, equity and participation incentives does not reveal any one of them as clearly superior."

761. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco.. Australian Nat'l. U.). SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 302.
"The relevant actors here are nation states. The question of whether they will act to reduce emissions can be treated in two parts. First, will they act individually? Second, will they act collectively? An analytical construct widely known as the prisoners' dilemma game gives the answers 'almost certainly not' and 'it all depends' respectively. The prisoners' dilemma gets its name because the basic structure involved was originally developed for a context where two individuals are arrested for a crime. If both confess, both receive somewhat reduced sentences. If neither confesses, both receive the standard sentence, as they are guilty and can be proved so at some trouble to the police. If only A confesses the guilt of both, she get a much-reduced sentence, and correspondingly fbr B."

762. IPCC Summary for Policy Makers Report in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST. Nov. 16, 95, 376.
"Given the interrelated nature of the global economic system, attempts to mitigate climate change through actions in one region or sector may have offsetting economic effects which risks increasing the emissions of other regions and sectors (so-called leakages)."

763, Lynne Jurgielewicz (Ph.D. Cand,, London Sch. Eco. & Pol Sci.,), GLOBAL ENVIR. CHANGE & INT'L, LAW, 96, 139.
"However, less developed and poorer countries, that are heavily dependent upon agriculture which is particularly sensitive to climate change, will be harder hit economically by global warming. Although he recognizes this possibility Nordhaus nevertheless advocates international cooperation, including aid to developing states, more research and development of new technologies, taxes on emissions of greenhouse gases and a 'no regrets' policy whereby mitigation measures that are otherwise economically beneficial are implemented.  These actions presumably would not have a detrimental impact on economic growth thus allowing for a greater possibility of third-world aid as well as allowing for growth in less-developed states. This concern for the developing states is shared by others, including the British economist Wilfred Beckerman, who argues that the third world cannot afford to make economic sacrifices now in order to improve the future global environment,"

764. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 292.
"In terms of the incentives for participation in collective action, the situation is broadly as follows. The bulk of future growth in emissions is expected to occur in developing countries. They see curtailing that growth as impairing their prospects for improving the material living standards of /heir citizens. Problems associated with global warming are in the future, and anyway uncertain."

765. Dirk Wolfson (Netherlands Scientific Council for Gov. Policy) in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, Oct., 96, 58.
"Politicians, even in the larger countries, cannot deliver substantial results in worldwide energy consumption or CO2 emissions, unless a critical mass of other countries falls in line. Worse, they may endanger their country's competitive position if they go it alone."

766. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 303.
"In the top right cell, A does nothing wile B sets up an EPA. As compared with the full status quo, A gains while B loses, B incurs the domestic costs involved in emissions abatement, and suffers a loss of competitiveness in international trade, while gaining some benefit from the reduced pollution due to its own emissions, but not those of A, being reduced. A gains exactly the same pollution reduction benefit, benefits from B's loss of competitiveness. and incurs no abatement costs. The bottom left cell shows the numbers reversed, as it refers to the reciprocal situation. Comparing the cell for the full status quo with these two cells, it is clear that for neither country is there an incentive to act alone. To do so would confer gains on the other country, and involve domestic losses."

767. WIND ENERGY FACT SHEET (Am. Wind Energy Assn.), 96, I.
"Wind projects are being developed in nearly every region of the country--the Northwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northeast and California. The wind industry contributes to the economies of 44 states."

768. WIND ENERGY FACT SHEET (Am. Wind Energy Assn.), 96, I.
"1995 was a record year for the wind industry with over 1,300 megawatts (MW) of new wind capacity installed, bringing total worldwide wind capacity to 5,000 MW. About 1,750 megawatts (MW) of wind power are currently installed in the U.S.. generating approximately 3.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year. this is enough electricity to serve the residential power needs of a city the size of Denver, Miami. or Portland."

769. Christopher Flavin (Sr. V.P., World Watch Inst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1995, 95, 60.
"Sizable wind power projects are also being built or planned in Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New York, Oregon, Texas, Vermont. Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming."

770. Lester Brown (Pres., World Watch Inst.) in VITAL SIGNS. 96, 17-8.
"The dramatic energy output gains came in wind electric generation capacity, which expanded by 33 percent, and in the sales of photovoltaic (solar) cells, which climbed by 17 percent. Growth in wind generation capacity, which was once concentrated in the United States and Denmark. has now spread to other major economies, such as Germany and India. Germany led the world in new capacity in 1995 with 505 megawatts, closely followed by India with 375 megawatts.'

771. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 2.
"The numbers are telling. Production of wind-generated electricity has risen from practically zero in the early 1980s to more than 6 terawatt-hours (Twh) in 1994, enough to meet the residential consumption equivalent to that of Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Dublin, and Zurich combined. Generation will increase to 7 TWh by 1995, and could top 30 TWh per year in Europe and North America early in the next century. Wind generating capacity worldwide reached 3500 megawatts (MW) in 1994 from more than 25,000 wind turbines and was increasing at the rate of 400 MW to 500 MW per year."

772. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 2.
"The rapid growth of wind energy pushed the technology beyond a financial milestone in 1993, when worldwide sales exceeded $1 billion, nearly half of that from the sale of wind-generated electricity, the remainder from the sale of wind turbines, mostly in Europe. The industry had not seen revenue this great since the height of California wind development in 1985, a time when revenues were due almost entirely to equipment sales."

84

773. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 143.
"Among all the renewable energy sources, none has grown as rapidly into an important industry as wind power. Since 191~1, California has been the site for a boom in wind power as over a dozen companies began 'fanning' the wind on a massive scale. Other small wind farms are catching on in other parts of the United States. Vermont, Hawaii, Oregon, Massachusetts, New York and Montana boast small wind farm operations."

774. Christopher Flavin (Staff, World Watch lnst.) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, xiii.
"Today's wind power boom is a truly global phenomenon, extending from the Great Plains of Minnesota to the grasslands of Argentina, and from the northern plains of Germany to the southern plains of India. By the end of 1994, some 25,000 wind turbines were in operation worldwide, providing a peak generating capacity of roughly 3,500 megawatts. During the next few years, that capacity is likely to rise by as much as 20 percent annually."

775. Andy Kydes (Staff, U.S. Dept. Energy) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 232.
"Wind, which accounted for less than 3 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in 1993, should provide about 25 billion kilowatt hours by 2010. an annual growth rate of 13%, the highest expected for the renewable sources of electricity generation."

776. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95. 179-80.
"The DOE wind R&D program is focused on joint ventures with industry to improve existing installations, develop advanced wind turbines. and upgrade the technology base through applied research."

777. Gerald Nix (Staff. Nat'l. Renewable Energy Lab) in VISION 2001: ENERGY & ENVIR. ENGINEERING, 96, 198.
"DOE, through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories, has research and development programs to improve or define the turbines of today, tomorrow, and the next century. The approach is to develop a technology base which will enable the private sector to perform the final development necessary to build a viable industry. Much of this research and development is cost-shared. with the industry and utilities typically supplying 30% to 70% of the funding. Current market projections from DOE estimate that 2% of the 2010 U.S. electricity supply will come from wind energy."

778. Dennis Elliott {Staff Nat'l. Renewable Energy Lab) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 775.
"During 1994 and 1995, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Wind Energy Program began supporting selected wind resource assessment programs to encourage the development of wind power in the U.S. Program participants receive guidance, technical assistance. and co-funding."

779. SUN WORLD, June, 95, 4.
"In addition to environmental regulations, government intervention has come in the shape of Department of Energy support for commercialization of wind power. The Utility Wind Turbine Verification Program, conducted in partnership with the Electric Power Research Institute, provides cost-shared funding for utility scale wind power demonstration projects. The Department of Energy also supports the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC). This is a collaboration of government, industry, utilities, environmental groups and others, seeking to establish a self-sustaining market for wind power. It is intended that this will help resolve some of the market beers to wind power."

780. Gerald Nix (Staff, Nat'l. Renewable Energy Lab) in VISION 2001: ENERGY & ENVIR. ENGINEERING, 96, 195.
"Wind energy is a commercially available renewable energy source, with state-of-the-art wind plants producing electricity at about $0.05 per kWh. However, even at that production cost, wind-generated electricity is not yet fully cost-competitive with coal- or natural-gas-produced electricity fur the bulk electricity market."

781. INT'L. SOLAR ENERGY INTELLIGENCE REPORT, June 10, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), I.
"Myth of Viable Wind Energy. Romm re-enforced the need for government funds, saying, 'It's a myth that wind energy is commercially viable. "'

782. D. J. Martin & D. P. Moon, (Profs., Strategic Studies, ETSU, UK) in ~ HYDROGEN & OTHER ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR GROUND & AIR 95, 13.
"In principle, wind power can supply a large fraction, possibly all, of global energy requirements. The practical problem is to develop wind power sufficiently cheap and reliable to produce reasonably priced electricity."

783. Robert Righter (Prof., Hist., U. TX-EI Paso), WIND ENERGY IN AM., 96, 272.
"None of the new-design turbines has been spinning for long. Paul Gipe is fond of noting that designing and predicting are much different than delivering, and thus far neither the U .S. government research program nor U.S. private enterprise has been able to deliver a significant volume of electric power at five cents per kilowatt hour."

784. Ernst Cohn (Fmr. Mgr., Coal Rsrch., Bureau of Mines) in ENERGY. June, 96, 30.
"One is reminded of the famed solar cell. however, which has refused to become commercially 'viable' except for very special markets. And the windmill generator, much closer than photovoltaics to economic reality for large-scale application, also has not quite attained competitive status. besides having shown audible and visual disadvantages, particularly when used in large quantities, that are likely to limit its application even in favorable (windy) regions.

785. Resource Data Int'I. Inc. report for Ctr. Energy & Economic Devel. in ENERGY, Sept, 95, 29.
Wind Power. The U.S. is the world's largest producer of electricity generated from wind turbines, with installed capacity totaling 1,725 megawatts as of 1995. Although more than 90% of that capacity is located in California, utilities in six other states currently operate pilot programs. The further spread of wind power is limited geographically because the vast majority of the country's major wind systems are located in California and the Great Plains." [Emphasis in original]

786. Zachary Smith (Prof:, Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 143.
"A second obstacle is finding suitable sites. Many feasible sites are already in use and wind turbines are precluded. Turbines in the heavily populated Northeast, along coastlines and visible mountain ranges, would cause visual pollution. Excessive noise and radio and TV interference are also problems with large turbines. In some areas. turbines would interfere with the flight pattern of migratory birds."

787. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 394.
"Opponents of wind energy charge that wind plants require more land than do conventional power plants because the energy in the wind is more diffuse than that, say, in enriched uranium. Gilles Menage, president of Electricite de France, for example, downplays wind's potential, saying that it would require a 'carpet' of 90,000 wind turbines stretching 7 miles inland from Dunkerque to Biarritz to equal the output of the Gravelines reactors. Indeed, it would take thousands of wind turbines to replace Gravelines, whose six 91 0-MW reactors near Dunkerque comprise one of the world's largest concentrations of nuclear power outside Chernobyl."

788. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 98.
"As an example, there are 7,000 wind turbines installed on the slopes of California's Altamont Pass. Initially they were able to compete because of governmental incentives, but with time and numbers of production units they have reached the point where they can nearly compete with other sources without the incentives. They can only nibble at the problem, however. They simply cannot be made big enough or placed in sufficient numbers to completely swallow it."

789. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 80.
"American and German engineers have designed some of the world's most efficient wind turbines, but none of these high-performance machines have ever operated reliably for long periods of time. Wind turbines, after all, are power plants, not race cars. 'The Danes built a Model T, while we were intent on building a Maserati,' says Meade Gougeon."

790. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 83-4.
	"Wind companies can afford only a few hours of maintenance on their wind turbines for every thousand hours of operation. The value of wind turbines is principally in the energy they generate, and energy is the product of power and time. A powerful or highly efficient wind turbine produces little energy if it breaks soon after installation. Efficiency, though important, must take second place to reliability in wind turbine design."

791. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 469.
"As with other natural resources, where transportation routes to market determine the economic value of the resource, transmission capacity may limit wind development in areas of western North America. Areas of energetic winds, like the Tehachapi Pass, are seldom near population (load) centers, so transmission lines become critical links for carrying the product---electricity--to market."

792. Alfred Cavallo (Prof., Envir. Studies, Princeton U.) et al. in WIND ENERGY 1995. Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 95, 119.
"In the future, as wind energy attempts to cover an increasing fraction of demand and as resources farther from major demand centers must be exploited. this straightforward approach may prove to be inadequate. New transmission lines, which are both costly and difficult to site. will be needed. In addition, utilities may be reluctant to accommodate large amounts of intermittent electricity on their systems."

793. Christopher Flavin (St. V.P., World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1995, 95, 62-3.
"One constraint to reliance on wind power is the distances that separate some of the world's large wind resources from major population and industrial centers. This problem is seen clearly in the United States. where nearly 90 percent of the country's wind resource is in the Great Plains, more than 1,000 kilometers from Chicago and 2,000 kilometers from New York or Los Angeles. In some cases, new transmission lines will be needed to carry wind energy to where it is needed, or existing lines will have to be beefed up, perhaps using new electronic controls or superconducting ceramic wires, each of which is under development."

794. Resource Data Int'l. Inc. report for Ctr. Energy & Economic Devel. in ENERGY, Sept.. 95, 27.
"Storage technologies for solar and wind generation are not yet commercially available. Utilities employ intermittent wind and solar generation according to seasonal and even daily statistical probabilities, but cannot predict availability with absolute certainty. Capacity utilization for these technologies falls below 30%."

795. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 143.
"There are serious obstacles to utilizing the wind. The first is the lack of an economical means to store electricity from wind generation. Wind power also requires backup from a utility company when the wind dies down."

796. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 344.
"Begun in early 1989, the study to determine the exact number of birds being killed, why, and what mitigation measures may be required. took two years of field work to complete. The conclusions were not pleasing. The study found 182 dead birds, two-thirds of them raptors. Red-tailed hawks headed the list, followed by American kestrels and golden eagles. BioSystems. the consortium's contractor, estimated that wind turbines and related facilities in the Altamont pass were killing 160 to 400 birds per year, most of which were birds of prey, including up to 40 golden eagles per year."

797. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,347.
"Avoiding a problem is always easier than trying to treat it after the fact. This appears to be the case in a burgeoning international problem near Gibraltar, in a major migratory flyway between Europe and Africa. The nearby windsurfing center of Tarifa has become famous as home to Spain's largest concentration of wind turbines. The 270 wind machines have also become notorious among Spain's environmental groups for killing raptors staging above the arid ridgetops before soaring across the straits. The turbines were killing protected birds such as griffon vultures and storks. according to local observers."

798. AVIAN INTERACTIONS WITH WIND ENERGY FACILITIES: A SUMMARY (prepared by Colson & Assoc. for Am. Wind Energy Assoc.), Jan., 95, 1-2.
"Since California was producing over 90% of the world's wind energy in 1989, additional avian studies were initiated at existing and all newly proposed facilities. One of the most extensive studies to examine avian activity and identify mitigation options was performed at the Altamont and Solano County WRAs by BigSystems Analysis, Inc. This 2-year study confirmed the apparent vulnerability of some raptor species to r electrocutions and collisions with wind energy facilities. Of 183 bird mortalities, 119 (65%) were raptors. Mortality species reported most often were red-tailed hawks (36%), American kestrels (13%), and golden eagles (11%). Approximately 55% were collisions with turbines, 11% were collisions with wires, 8% were electrocutions, and 26% were unknown."

799. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 182.
"The steady winds that make for good windpower sites sometimes coincide with prime habitat for raptors--soaring birds like hawks and eagles--or stop-offpoints for migrating birds. Spinning turbine blades are hazardous. Bird casualties have turned out to be a major problem at one California wind farm where raptors live and hunt, and may become serious at another farm in southern Spain, where migratory birds stop to rest and wait for favorable winds before crossing the Mediterranean."

800. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,343.
"The 'bird problem,' as the wind industry calls it, came to light over a three-year period in the late 1980s when the California Energy Commission tallied reports that as many as 160 birds had been killed or had died in the vicinity of the state's wind power plants, including a protected and highly valued species: the golden eagle."

801. AVIAN INTERACTIONS WITH WIND ENERGY FACILITIES: A SUMMARY (prepared by Colson & Assoc. for Am. Wind Energy Assoc.), Jan., 95, I 1.
"Long-term negative impacts associated with wind energy development include loss of habitat, electrocutions, and collisions with turbines, meteorological towers, transmission towers, and communication towers."

802. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,372.
"Where wind turbines have been seen as an intrusion on an otherwise rural setting, some nearby residents have objected to them on the grounds of their noise impact. 'The perception and reaction to noise is related to level of acceptance and personal preference. For example, people often prefer to camp or live near running water or crashing waves' despite the noise, says geographer Martin Pasqualetti. 'An intrusion rather than a personal choice produces different opinions about noise.' If wind turbines are unwanted for other reasons, such as their impact on the landscape, noise serves as the lightning rod for disaffection."

803. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,371.
"No aspect of wind energy creates more alarm or more debate than noise. Whether wind turbines are 'noisy' is as much a subjective determination as whether wind machines appear 'beautiful' or 'ugly' on the landscape. However, unlike aesthetics, noise is measurable, and some researchers have noted that because it is measurable, neighbors will 'transfer' their concern about wind energy's aesthetic intrusion to the increase in background noise attributable to the wind turbines."

804. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,372.
"The addition of new sounds, which most residents have had little or no part in creating and from which they receive no direct benefit. can be disturbing. No matter how insignificant they may be in a technical sense. these new sounds signify an outsider's intrusion. The effect is rnagnified when the source. such as a wind turbine. is also highly visible."

805. Nancy Cole (Staff. Union Concerned Scientists). RENEWABES ARE READY, 95, 182
'"The whoosh of blades against the wind creates a low, steady drone.  From a single well-built, well-maintained turbine it's almost inaudible.  The noise from an entire wind farm, however, can't be missed.  Some people also object to the strong visual impact of thousands of turbines turning on windy ridges.  For these reasons, large wind farms will probably be relegated to areas away from cities and towns."

806. Resource Data Int'l. Inc. report for Ctr. Energy & Economic Devel. in ENERGY, Sept., 95, 28.
"Wind, for example, consumes no fuel or water and gives off no emissions. However, it does present visual and noise pollution and kills a significant number of birds.'

807. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 257.
"Nash, a professor at the University of California's Santa Barbara campus, has written extensively on the philosophy of environmentalism and wilderness. He goes further than most environmentalists in his concern that renewable technologies could demand too high an aesthetic price. In one controversial article, he went so far as to suggest that nuclear power may be preferable to renewable energy, a proposal that many in the environmental camp would consider a sacrilege. 'From the standpoint of scenic pollution and the destruction of wildness,' he said, 'there are distinct advantages to the hard energy option... a nuclear plant modifies a relatively small area compared to a large-scale solar installation, a hydropower dam, or a windmill complex."' [Ellipsis in original]

808. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,251.
"Any photograph of California wind turbines reveals one of the biggest obstacles to the development of wind energy. They are very. visible and very ugly.--Thomas Lippman, writing for the Washington Post."

809. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 251.
"The aesthetic pollution is obvious when a piece of land is transformed into a whirling wind factory."

810. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. 96, 299.
"When a wind turbine is positioned between a radio, television or microwave transmitter and receiver, it can sometimes reflect some of the electromagnetic radiation in such a way that the reflected wave interferes with the original signal as it arrives at the receiver. This can cause the received signal to be distorted significantly."

811. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 147.
"Roughly 8,000 MW of bioelectric capacity is currently grid connected in the United States, compared with less than 200 MW in 1979. Additional big electric capacity is operated off-grid. Steam turbines are now used, but a variety of new fuel handling and energy conversion technologies such as whole-tree burners and integrated gasification advanced gas turbine systems (including combined-cycle turbines and steam-injected gas turbines) promise to nearly double current efficiencies and substantially reduce costs."

812. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. 96, 146.
"The 'recoverable resource' in the USA from all forms of biomass residues--not including energy crops--has been assessed as 6700 PJ a year. On the world scale, a scenario based on a detailed analysis carried out for the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) suggests that the annual energy supply from biomass by the middle of the next century could reach about half the present total world primary energy consumption."

813. Connie Barlow (Natural Gas Consultant) in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 62-3.
"The gas shortages of the 1970s, however, revived the appeal of unconventional feedstocks, and the interest has survived in the search for environmentally acceptable ways to dispose of solid wastes. Factories and municipalities in the United States and abroad have thus been experimenting with the methanation of various categories of biomass. including sewage-plant sludge. feedlot sweepings, and urban garbage." [Emphasis in original]

814. Charles Kinoshita (Nat'l. Energy lnst.. U. HI) in ENERGY. June.96, 20.
"Implementation of policies that discourage greenhouse gas emissions or encourage biomass production on idle lands also could make biomass feedstocks more competitive with fossil fuels.  Presently, several incentives are in place or proposed that encourage the installation of dedicated energy feedstocks, e.g., renewable energy production credits and accelerated depreciation for closed-loop biomass energy systems, and potential offsets in emission charges."
815. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 194-5.
"Burning wood, alcohol. or dried sewage generates essentially the same set of air pollutants that come from burning coal or natural gas. Cities with a large number of wood-burning homes like Albuquerque, New Mexico, have actually had to ban wood-burning during certain winter days in order to minimize the sooty haze that hangs over the city. All modern stoves must now meet stringent emissions guidelines set by the EPA so they release little in the way of soot or other pollutants, but many older, polluting home stoves are still in use. Large biomass burners must be fitted with scrubbers to ensure they don't emit excessive pollutants. This is especially true for waste-to-energy plants, since their emissions may contain toxic metals or dioxins formed by burning plastics."

816. William Baarschers (Prof, Chem., Lakehead U., Canada), EC0-FACTS & ECO-FICTION, 96, 122.
"Wood smoke is also a significant source of the controversial chlorinated dioxins and furans, an aspect of wood combustion we will address in a following chapter. Wood burning on a large scale is a significant source of air pollution, and the smoke has a negative impact on public health. Burning wood is not an environmentally friendly form of energy.'

817. William Baarschers (Prof.. Chem., Lakehead U., Canada), ECO-FACTS & ECO-FICTION. 96. 133.
"Carbon dioxide is the inevitable product of combustion of all biomass. The term 'cleaner burning fuels' addresses only the visible part of air pollution. Cleaner burning still means carbon dioxide."

818. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK. Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 178.
"Combustion of  biomass fuels has two drawbacks which are shared with all other combustion processes. Firstly. since air contains 78% nitrogen, burning of any fuel leads to the production of nitrogen oxides (Nox), which contribute to both photochemical smog and the greenhouse effect. Secondly, inevitable physical limitations on the conversion of chemical energy to heat and then electricity mean that at least half the energy is lost in the process."

819. Thomas D. Bath (Nat'l. Renewable Energy Lab) in ALTERNATIVE FUELS & THE ENVIR., 95, 215.
"The potential contribution of renewable energy systems is very large. as noted earlier. However, the dispersed nature of the basic solar resources results in competition with other activities for the use of land where the resource is available. Hence, the pressures for efficient conversion of solar energy into a usable form are intensified. Land suitable for growing biofuel crops is usually also valuable for food or forest product production."

820. OMAHA WORLD HERALD, Apr. 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97). 10.
"One of the doubters is Lester Brown. who heads the WorldWatch Institute of Washington, D.C. He noted that mankind has fed the growing numbers by producing more grain, doubling the production of wheat in recent years. However, he said, 'we can't do it again.' Feeding more people requires more land, more technology and more chemicals to kill weeds and provide nutrients to marginal soil."

821. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 195.
"Responsible land use presents another tricky issue. Increasing use of wood as an energy source will further boost our demand for trees. and could have a potentially devastating impact on our already fragile forests. Overharvesting and clear-cutting cause erosion and the silting of streams, and destroy habitats for a variety of plants and animals. The spotted owl/old growth controversy that is still simmering in the Northwest illustrates how complex and fiery the issues surrounding forest resources can be. Potential problems even surround proposals to grow certain energy crops. Using annual row crops like sweet sorghum to make biofuels could exacerbate soil erosion, and increase the use of agricultural chemicals."

822. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report, GLOBAL WARMING:  ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 134.
"Large mono-cultures could lead to loss of bio-diversity, although biomass could be more biologically diverse than agricultural monocultures.  Intensive biomass production may contribute to erosion, to pollution caused by fertilizer and pesticide use and may lead to water shortages.  Many of these environmental concerns are similar to those expressed regarding (intensive) agricultural production."

87

823. Andy Kydes (Staff, U.S. Dept. Energy) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97. 235.
"One of the inhibiting factors in the growth of wood use for electricity generation is the expense of long-distance transportation, as well as the perception that wood is not as environmentally benign as other renewable sources. In addition. the wood resource is a highly regional one."

824. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 250.
"In general, we would expect the possibilities for substituting biomass for petroleum to be best in economies with low wage rates because of the necessity for a great expenditure of labor to collect transport, and convert biomass. This very fact is creating a bleak future in some poor countries where the rise in the price of kerosene inspired a shift back to cooking with wood. The result in many areas has been deforestation and consequent lengthening of the time villagers must spend walking to the woods, as well as the devastation of floods and erosion. This experience should serve as a warning against some of the more exuberant forecasts of the role of  biomass."

825. Henry Lee (Prof. Gov't., Harvard U.) in TECH. REV., Jan.. 96. 9.
"While Sterzinger writes an interesting and provocative assessment of the prospects for biomass-fueled electric generation. his estimate that such energy can eventually be produced for 5-6 cents per kilowatt hour ignores the possible deregulation of the U.S. electricity industry and the decrease in prices that would result. A combined-cycle natural gas facility, the least-expensive long-run alternative right now. can be built and operated at 4.5 cents per kilowatt hour. It is likely that prices closer to this figure will serve as the goal for the industry."

826. Ronald Laxson (Consultant. Solar Energy Policy) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 26.
"For FY 1994. the photovoltaics and biomass fuels programs were both larger than the solar thermal electric program, while the wind program was also only slightly smaller than the solar thermal electric program (ISEIR 1993). Cumulative funding for the four solar thermal programs was about $2.9 billions about 40% of the cumulative total solar funding of about $7.3 billion (I 993 dollars).

827. Scott Sklar (Ex. Dir., Solar Energy Industries Assn.) in HSE HRGS: COMMITFEE ON APPROPRIATIONS, Mar. 4. 96 (Online. Nexis. 3/15/97), I.
"While the United States led the world in first generation solar thermal electric technologies--in the 1980s, 354 megawatts of commercial solar thermal electric plants were installed and continue to operate reliably - falling fossil fuel prices required the development of more efficient technologies and designs. In the early 1990s, DOE entered into partnership with the solar energy industry to develop next-generation solar thermal electric technologies by the late 1990s, leading to a series of 50-50 cost shared. five-year joint ventures which have generated more than $150 million in commitments from the private sector."

828. Scott Sklar (Ex. Dir.. Solar Energy Industries Assn.) in HSE HRGS: COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS, Mar. 4, 96 (Online. Nexis, 3/15/97), 1.
"During the Bush Administration. the PV industry embarked on a cost-shared PV Manufacturing Initiative (PVMaT) program in conjunction with the Department of Energy to overcome technological hurdles to scale-up manufacturing. The program was designed to build on the Japanese experience that proved the effectiveness of reducing costs through more efficient manufacturing techniques. rather than through pure research on cell efficiencies. Third. during the Clinton Administration, the PV industry entered into two cost-shared programs with the federal government designed to build market confidence in the electric utility and building industry sector.'

829. Julie Halpert (Staff) NYT, June 5, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), DI.
"Jolted by the oil embargoes of the 1970s, the Federal Government has been awarding research grants to develop solar power ever since.  Twenty years and $1.4 billion in taxpayer money later, solar power is still not much more than a dim light bulb in the nation's energy constellation.  But the investment is paying off anyway - a thriving export business that is proving, as solar proponents insisted all along, that 'small is beautiful.'  From India and Indonesia to Mexico and Brazil, solar panels made in America are spouting on thousands of rooftops, lighting up jungles, deserts and other hard-to-wire areas of the developing world that have never been connected to conventional power grids - and are not likely to be any time soon."

830. Scott Sklar (Ex. Dir., Solar Energy Industries Assn.) in HSE HRGS: COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS, Mar. 4, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 1.
"Three distinct activities fall under the Solar International Programs, all of which assist U.S. manufactured renewable energy technologies in maintaining their global dominance."

831. J. Glen Moore (Rsrch. Specialist. Congressional Rsrch. Serv.) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 115.
"Solar was immensely popular with Congress in the 1970s as a resource that could help to alleviate U.S. dependence on imported oil. Although the program suffered severe budget cuts and political downgrading in the 1980s, Congress would not allow it to die. Today, in light of growing concerns over the effects of fossil fuels on the environment, the solar option is being reexamined for its potential as an environmentally benign alternative. Thanks in large part to the tenacious efforts of many members of Congress over many Congresses, there exists today a federal program capable of exploring this important aspect of solar energy."

832. Resource Data Int'l. Inc. report for Ctr. Energy & Economic Devel. in ENERGY, Sept., 95, 29.
Solar Photovoltaic. In 1994, over 400 utility sponsored photovoltaic (PV) sites produced close to 14 megawatts of capacity. Nevertheless, costs currently remain high for central station generation from PV technologies. The most promising area for the technology lies in remote applications."

833. Greg Easterbrook (Contributing Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 362.
"The barriers to solar power are many, most prominently that the energy value in sunlight falling on the Earth is in a given unit of area comparatively small. Thus to be effective solar arrays must be large and must convert a high percentage of incoming sunlight. Making solar collectors large has proved expensive: so has raising the conversion percentage."

834. V. V. Alekseev (Prof., Moscow St. U.) in SUN WORLD, Mar., 96, 16.
"In spite of noticeable progress in solar energy technology and a decrease in the cost of solar stations, none are able to compete with the traditional energy stations because the existing price structure does not reflect indirect costs such as environmental and social costs."

835. Frank Kreith (Consulting Engineer) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 11.
"In the early 1980s, some fairly large centralized utility PV power plants, built with federal financial support, raised expectations that PV systems could compete with fossil fuels in utility applications, but the high cost of PV power. combined with a reduction in oil prices, made utility applications of PV systems economically unattractive, and there is little expectation that PV systems will be used within the next decade for centralized utility power plants."

836. Jerrold Krenz (Prof., Engineering, U. CO) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 969.
"Why then are not arrays of photovoltaic cells being used more extensively to supplement conventional electric power plants? The answer can be summed up in a single world-cost."

837. Jerrold Krenz (Prof., Engineering, U. CO) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 985.
"Many recent projections continue to imply that photovoltaic cells will 'soon' produce electrical energy that will be competitive with that produced by fossil-fueled power plants. Even the titles of published articles, such as 'Photovoltaics: Unlimited Electrical Energy from the Sun,' have been misleading. The term 'unlimited' carries nearly the same connotation as that once put forth by the early nuclear power industry, 'too cheap to meter.' Realistic appraisals of photovoltaic energy systems are still lacking."

838. Richard Kauffman (Special Contrib.), COST ENGINEERING, Oct., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 11.
"Photovoltaic Cells. (These are) upscale versions of the ones found in calculators: no storage capability and a low energy conversion ratio have limited them to small scale utility applications until manufacturing economies of scale bring down costs."

839. Richard Kauffman (Special Contrib.), COST ENGINEERING, Oct., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 11.
"The efficient conversion of solar energy to electricity has eluded science and industry for decades."

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840. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 444.
"According to West Germany's Fraunhofer Institute, photovoltaics may have higher social costs than wind energy, primarily because they exclude land from other uses."

841. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 444.
"The lnstitute's Olav Hohmeyer, the author of a study on the social costs of energy, argues that wind energy is compatible with land uses such as grazing and growing crops. In contrast, the panels of solar-electric technologies block as much sunlight as possible, thus shading the land beneath the panels. If, as some advocates suggest. the solar cells were installed on rooftops instead of in power plants, Hohmeyer warns that the social costs, rather than being eliminated, would simply be shifted to accidents resulting from inexperienced installers."

842. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 95..
"No matter how low the cost, terrestrial-based solar cells cannot overcome the same problem as other earth-based solar systems--intermittent sunlight."

843. Carlo LaPorta (Dir., Rsrch., Solar Energy Industries Assn.) in IMPLEMENTATION SOEAR THERMAL TECH.. 96, 161.
"Ultimately. any new energy technology must prove its worth in the competitive market by offering lower energy costs or a reliable supply at a price acceptable to the market. The Solar Energy Industries Association Five-Year Research and Development Plan for 1985-1989 stated that current costs for solar thermal electricity production were approximately $0.16/kWH. levelized in constant 1984 dollars. Costs for industrial process heat were given as $20/Mbtu. Cost projections for commercial solar thermal energy systems were seldom attractive enough to convince potential users to purchase the technology. A few cases existed where high-value applications combined with incentives would return a competitive return on investment to financial participants, but widespread sales of solar thermal energy systems simply did not occur."

844. Carlo LaPorta (Dir., Rsrch., Solar Energy Industries Assn.)in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96. 163.
"In summary, aside from one company's success marketing parabolic trough electrical systems, solar thermal concentrator technology had not yet reached commercial status by the end of the 1980s. With federal government support, central receiver and parabolic dish technology was continuing to advance technically. A few companies were still planning for future commercialization; a few small businesses were also reintroducing parabolic trough technology for industrial process and commercial heating applications, but their progress was slow."

845. Ronald Larson (Consultant Solar Energy Policy) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 53-4.
"The experiences of the years 1974-1985 established that active solar heating is not cost-competitive with natural gas at current prices. The same systems are. at best, marginally competitive with electricity. The accumulated results provided great improvements in solar heating system design, installation, and operation and maintenance but had little impact on cost effectiveness."

846. Ronald Larson (Consultant. Solar Energy Policy) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH.. 96. 55.
"Today's industrial solar heating systems are not cost-competitive at the 1990s' cost of natural gas."

847. J. C. Gross Kreotz (Mgr., Black & Veatch Engineers) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 281-2.
Despite liberal federal and state tax incentives then available, the cost and performance risks of central receiver plants were still too high to attract the needed private capital ($150-500 million) and the plants had not been built as of early 1990."

848. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 50.
"The second solar thermal technology, central receivers--or 'power towers'--have yet to be demonstrated on a commercial scale. However, a 10-megawatt plant is scheduled to begin operation in early 1996 and continue through 1998. The project, known as Solar Two, is a partnership between the U.S. DOE and a consortium led by Southern California Edison. The project is upgrading a prior 10-megawatt demonstration system, known as Solar One, that produced more than 35,000 megawatt-hours of electricity at an installed capacity cost of approximately $14,000 per kilowatt-hour. The new system is expected to do better."

849. Christopher Flavin (Sr. V.P., World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1995, 95, 63.
"Ever since the Arab oil embargo of 1973, government and private researchers have struggled with a variety of means for turning the most abundant energy source of all--sunlight--into electricity. Much funding has been devoted to this effort, including the construction of several giant central receivers. None of these efforts has proved itself commercially."

850. Lorin Vant-Hull (Prof., Physics, U. Houston) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 914.
"Many lessons have been learned from a brief list of the generic problems that have plagued the early attempts at the commercialization of solar thermal systems over the past few decades: these include failure of the reflective surface, poor optical performance, poor thermal performance, poor engine performance, short life of components, high component repair/replacement cost, too many parts, manufacturing process not viable for low-cost production, system not designed-to-cost, failure of critical components, excessive maintenance requirements, demise of production/service corporation, and so on."

851. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER. 95.96-7.
"One concept for centralized power generation from ground-based solar utilizes fields of mirrors (or heliostats, as they are called) to concentrate sunlight into a cavity absorber or receiver. When the sunlight is concentrated in the cavity, the temperature becomes very high and heats a fluid that is pumped through a heat exchanger inside the cavity and then routed to a turbine engine. The concept is essentially the same as a coal or gas-fired power plant, except that the heat is provided by sunlight instead of by fire. Them are also variations in how the working fluid is heated. One other approach uses trough-shaped mirrors concentrating the sunlight on a pipe carrying the heated working fluid. Since they depend on heat from the sun, they suffer from many of the disadvantages of other ground-solar applications."

852. V. V. Alekseev (Prof., Moscow St. U.) in SUN WORLD, Mar., 96, 15.
"There are three methods for the conversion of solar energy: photovoltaics. thermodynamic methods and bioconversion. Consideration of the main methods for solar energy conversion shows that no single method is able to provide reliable energy production. This fact illustrates the specific problem in using solar radiation as an energy source."

853. V. V. Alekseev (Prof., Moscow St. U.) in SUN WORLD, Mar., 96, 15.
"In recent times the high temperature storage of thermal energy has been more economically effective than batteries or other non fuel storage, especially in the case of thermal carrier liquid, the substance accumulating the heat. However, because the stations cannot work during long periods without direct solar radiation, they do not provide long-term storage of solar energy ."

854. Lorin Vant-Hull (Prof., Physics, U. Houston) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 911.
"During the current period there will be demonstrations of prototypes of several systems deemed to have high potential to become commercially viable. These programs will proceed under cost-sharing cooperative research agreements between DOE and industry (joint ventures). Examples of such joint ventures are assistance in reducing operating and maintenance costs for the several operating 'commercial' SEGS plants, and extending the 'lessons learned' to other solar technologies; construction of Solar Two as a second-generation central receiver IAant utilizing the tower and heliostat field of Solar One; a program to build and install five prototype 7.5 kWe dish Stifling systems at utility sites around the country in 1996; and two joint ventures to develop 25 kWe dish Stifling systems (DOE, 1994).

89

855. David Kearney (Pres., Kearney & Assoc.-Energy Consulting) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 259-60.
"A significant benefit of the DOE program was to highlight these factors and the realization that industrial solar IPH systems could be successful if also coupled with reduced costs, higher performance, and a competitive marketplace. The leasing example of the application of these factors to industrial applications has been the installation of several hot water solar IPH systems by a Denver company that was an early spinoff of the DOE IPH activities."

856. David Kearney (Pres., Kearney & Assoc.-Energy Consulting) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96. 260.
"While some progress has been made in commercialization of solar IPH subsequent to the DOE program described here, large-scale industrial solar IPH implementation is still to be achieved. To encourage and accelerate this effort, a new initiative to systematically target specific promising applications has been undertaken by DOE's Solar Industrial Program managed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory with support from Sandia National Laboratories. Although still its early stages, this program encompasses and builds upon the important knowledge gained from earlier efforts, focusing on good fits in the marketplace, low-temperature applications, high conventional energy costs. mature solar system hardware, and strong user commitment."

857. Barry Butler (Mgr., Solar Materials Program, Sandia Nat'l. Labs) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 725-6.
"SERI and Sandin, whose solar thermal technology development roles created a dynamic competition. have both played a significant part in the development of solar thermal technologies. With Sandia DOE, and major industry involvement, the technologies championed by SERI have come to the marketplace. The wise allocation of research dollars by SERI has produced innovative and cost-effective materials and components needed to make solar thermal process heat and electricity applications practical in the 1990s."

858. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 194-5.
"Renewable resource assessment and the development of appropriate analytical tools is essential for potential users to identify attractive opportunities. The FY 1995 appropriation for solar resource activities is $3.95 million--up from the FY 1994 level of $2.2 million. This increase in funding will allow an expansion of the resource monitoring network. the development of a more comprehensive database, and support data integration and geographic analysis."

859. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96. 773.
"Petersen (1982) surveyed consumer attitudes and practices toward conservation and solar equipment in eleven states. Most of his respondents were aware that tax credits for solar and conservation expenditures were available. but relatively few (about 10%) said they made decisions to purchase in response to the credits. This response. combined with information on the respondents' tax burden and the size of the solar purchase made, led Petersen to conclude that the tax credits stimulated a 12.3% increase in conservation and solar expenditures and that they largely resulted in a windfall for taxpayers with above-average incomes."

860. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96. 781.
"The solar tax credit legislation makes no provision for regional differences in the cost effectiveness of solar energy systems. The tax credit could be claimed whether or not claimants' systems were cost-effective without a subsidy, or whether their payback periods were longer than the life of the system. In this sense. Congress implicitly defined the potential solar market as all homeowners in the United States, even though active solar heating, for example, is less cost-effective in some parts of the United States where winter insulation levels are relatively low."

861. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH.. 96. 780.
"The Office of Technology Assessment has pointed out that the business tax credits were abused and that in some cases 'investors with considerable income have used projects primarily as tax shelters, benefiting even if the projects fail to operate properly and provide any gain for the technology."

862. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 776.
"On the basis of available empirical studies, we can be no more conclusive than earlier analysts concerning the documented overall cost effectiveness of the federal credits in solar commercialization. Funds for substantial evaluation efforts in the alternative energy field declined drastically with the budget constraints and changed priorities of the Reagan Administration. With dramatic declines in the resources devoted to evaluation studies, little new empirical analysis has become available to enrich or alter the conclusions reached by previous reviews. Indeed, given the available research, virtually nothing can be said about the performance of the business tax credits ."

863. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 775.
"Lazzari's previously cited 1982 evaluation reviewed seven studies of the effectiveness of the federal residential solar and conservation tax credits. He concluded that 'none of the studies conclusively determines the overall effectiveness of the energy tax credits'.

864. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 775.
"Thus, with respect to state solar and conservation tax incentives, Rodberg and Schacter (1980) state: 'There is an important and legitimate role for state tax incentives in promoting conservation and renewable energy. It is not possible. however, on the basis of the present evidence, to conclude that the incentives that now exist have stimulated new investment. "'

865. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH 96. 785.
"At the very least, the elimination of the credits added to the industry's burden at a time when it was already difficult for it to sustain a stable, much less growing, market position. Measured in terms of numbers of firms and total sales, the solar thermal collector industry in 1986 was actually smaller than it had been a decade earlier, before the initiation of the tax credits."

866. Ronald Lapson (Consultant, Solar Energy Policy) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH.. 96, 61.
"Another school of thought {including many solar enthusiasts) believes that the solar tax credits were catastrophic in addition to being expensive. Their argument is that the tax credits inflated the costs of solar systems, kept unscrupulous businesses afloat, and thereby generated a negative public image. In this regard, we conclude that the tax credits should have been dependent on system performance standards."

867. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs. U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH.. 96, 779.
"Solar tax credits exhibit a number of weaknesses as an energy policy instrument. One of the most significant of these is the potential they create for diverting resources from least-cost energy alternatives. For example, the credits can encourage installation of high-cost solar energy systems compared with equivalent or greater benefits from conservation programs at perhaps much lower costs to government and the consumer. There is no evidence that, during the period in which tax credits were in effect, consumers substituted subsidized solar purchases for improvements in energy efficiency or that the tax credit program was responsible for reducing federal commitments to energy efficiency improvements."

868. Daniel Rich (Prof.. Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 780.
"The tax credits allowed suppliers to inflate initial costs because the subsidy provided a substantial guaranteed discount to the purchaser and because the maximum allowable expenditure was higher than some, including representatives of the industry, believed was appropriate to encourage prudent purchases. The inflated prices of solar energy systems, in turn, as well as the lack of quality assurance through certification requirements, made them difficult to sell without government assistance and contributed to a perception of solar systems as too expensive and unreliable."

869. Ronald Larson (Consultant, Solar Energy Policy) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH. 96. 61
"More dollars of tax revenues were forgone than all the dollars budgeted for solar thermal programs (by a factor of about 1.5).  The tax credits were about five times larger than the programmatic federal commercialization efforts.  It now seems that if equivalent expenditures had been made for planned programs, such as federal purchases and monitoring, that greater benefits would have been achieved."

90

870. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 780-1.
The tax credits may also be criticized as inequitable because they largely assist the more affluent segments of the population rather than low-income households that experience the greatest burden of higher energy prices. Individuals and firms must generally have sizable taxable income to offset in order to benefit fully from such subsidies. Further, credits only help those who have, or can obtain, sufficient capital to make the investment even after the subsidy has covered part of the cost. Tax credits, therefore, appeal to higher-income groups, and there is evidence that the greatest proportion of claims comes from middle- and upper-income homeowners."

871. Steven Ferrey (Prof., Law, Suffolk U.) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 792.
"Tax credit mechanisms performed poorly in catalyzing solar energy improvements across all income groups in the population. Internal Revenue Service ORS) income tax return data showed a maldistribution in the usage of the residential energy tax credit. In 1978, 88% of the residential credits claimed were taken by those with adjusted gross incomes in excess of $15,000, with fully 80% of the credits claimed by those earning more than $20,000 annually. Those with adjusted income in excess of $15,000 constituted only 38% of the returns filed, while those with incomes in excess of $20,000 filed only 25% of all tax returns."

872. Steven Ferrey (Prof., Law, Suffolk U.) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 792-3.
"Even spreading the credit over the allowable two years, a family earning $15,000 would not be able to realize the maximum $4.000 solar tax credit; a family earning $10,000 could cumulatively realize less than an aggregate of $800 in energy credits. One consultant to HUD calculated that a tax credit of this magnitude would be unavailable in full to 78% of U.S. taxpayers, and 65% of all homeowners, because of insufficient tax liability to offset the full credit."

873. Steven Ferrey (Prof, Law, Suffolk U.) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 792.
"The Energy 'Fax Act of 1978 created tax credits for conservation and renewable energy resource investments in principal residences. Absentee landlords therefore could not utilize these credits. The credits were nonrefundable and had to be taken against current tax liability, thus low-income families with no taxable income or with minimal tax liability could not take advantage of the residential energy tax credits."

874. Chris Bryson {Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., Dec. 17, 96 (Online. Nexis. 4/22/97), 12.
"Critics also point to alternative power sources, such as the European Space Agency's development of efficient solar-cell technology "suitable for deep-space missions.' But to switch now. Pike allows. would require a costly multiyear redesign that might kill the $4 billion Cassini probe. already overdue and over budget. Some NASA scientists say that solar panels wouldn't be a reliable power source so far from the sun."

875. NASA, Feb., 96 (http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cassini/Morelnfo/spacepwr.html).
"The size of solar arrays that would be needed, about one-quarter the area of a football field, would not only be difficult to deploy reliably. but would significantly increase the orbiter's moments of inertia, making turns and other timely maneuvers extraordinary difficult to perform. This would severely inhibit Cassini's ability to achieve its science objectives. The large arrays would seriously interfere with the fields of view of many of the science experiments and navigation sensors, further limiting the Cassini mission's ability to achieve the science objectives. Large arrays could generate serious electromagnetic and electrostatic interference, which would adversely impact the operation of the science experiments and the spacecraft's communications equipment and computers."

876. Peter Spotts (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., Dec. 17, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97), 12.
"Alternatives, such as fuel cells, batteries, and solar panels, exist for producing electricity in space. But for Cassini, mission planners say, they fail to meet power, weight, or reliability requirements. The European Space Agency has developed in the lab a lighter, more-efficient solar cell. But in a memo last August, ESA officials acknowledged that too little is known currently about the cells to make them a viable alternative."

877. Charles Colehare (NPR), NASA & THE SAFETY OF PLUTONIUM, Transcript # 96111812-212, Nov. 18, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97).
"Charles Colehaze, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Cassini Mission: Obviously one of the first things we considered was the use of solar panels. But as you know, Saturn is a long distance from the sun. And so basically the amount of sunlight you can collect on a given area at Saturn is only around I percent that at Earth. And when we looked at the weight or mass that we would need to carry that much solar array area, it was too heavy to launch."

878. Akino Nishiyama (Staff'), THE NIKKEI WEEKLY, July I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97), 10.
"Meanwhile, the solar thermoelectric power-generating system would use a giant mirror to focus light from the sun and use the generated heat to create electricity using Stirling engines. which use external combustion to heat a confined gas, and thermoelectric converters. The conversion efficiency of such a system would be greater than 30%, surpassing conventional solar-power systems, which have an efficiency ratio of about 20%. The main challenge now is developing a Stirling engine that lasts long enough for practical use."

879. Akino Nishiyama (Staff), THE NIKKEI WEEKLY, July 1, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97), 10.
"The challenge then becomes devising an accurate way to beam the microwaves down to the receiving antennas. If the microwaves were transmitted from a geostationary satellite orbiting at an altitude 36,000km, the center of the beam would have to fall within a diameter of 1 km from the center of the antenna. While that may not sound too hard, it is the equivalent of standing at the top of the 333-meter Tokyo Tower with a ray gun and hitting the bulls-eye of a 1 cm target on the ground."

880. Akino Nishiyama (staff), THE NIKKEI WEEKLY, July I, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/22/97), lO.
"Sharpshooting aside, there is still the need to confirm that power-beaming microwaves do not harm the ecosystem. Experiments designed to answer that question are being planned by the Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science and the Electrotechnical Laboratory. Finally, there is the question of cost. The experimental SPS 2000 satellite is expected to cost upwards of 1 trillion yen (9.2 billion dollars) to launch. 'For space-power generation to become a practical reality. we have to find a way to lower launch costs.' admitted the institute's Susumu Sasaki.'

881. Rick Fleeter (Pres.. AeroAstro), FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE. Apt. 17, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97).
"Infrastructure: Large satellites require large facilities. The US has only a handful of facilities, virtually all owned and managed by major contractors. Because of the small number of facilities and the small number of satellites, capital costs are a major component of spacecraft costs."

882. Mark Souder (U.S. Rep., IN), FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, Sept. 11. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97).
"Since the early 1990's NASA's planned budget has decreased sharply from a projected fiscal year 2000 budget of more than $20 billion in 1990 to a projected fiscal year 2000 budget of less than $13 billion today. In response to these budget shortfalls, Mr. Goldin announced before the House Committee on Science, Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics, in 1995 he would achieve these budget reductions by reducing infrastructure including consolidating and closing facilities."

883. Conrad Bums (Staff), FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, July 24, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97).
"The future budgets proposed for NASA by the Administration and Congress are a death warrant for components of America's space program. If implemented, major science and exploration projects will have to be terminated, as well as research centers possibly closed. America could lose its leadership in space. Our nation's investment in science and engineering, already in decline, will be further diminished, weakening our economic competitiveness."

884. Conrad Bums (Staff), FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, July 24, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97).
"Realistically, to find billions of dollars annually in savings, NASA would have to amputate scientific and technological programs and possibly affiliated centers--a disastrous course of action. To save $3 bill ion annually, as required by the Administration's FY 2000 budget, NASA, for instance, would have to cancel the entire Mission to Planet Earth program, kill the space station, or completely wipe out the space science exploration program."

885.  Conrad Bums (Staff), FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, July 24. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/22/97).
"If the Administration and Congress--in their zeal to balance the federal budget by 2002---move ahead and implement NASA's out-year budgets, it will mean the end of an era in space exploration. The hard work to institute new reforms the past five years will be for naught. What could have been a glorious new beginning for NASA, as we approach the new millennium, will instead be a catastrophic failure of vision and hope for a better tomorrow."

886. Conrad Bums (Staff), FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE. July 24, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/22/97).
"Both the Administration and Congressional out year budgets will devastate America's space program and end our leadership in space as we now know it. In FY 1998, the Administration and Congress seek to chop about $1 billion (real terms) from NASA. To understand the severity of this reduction, consider that the space agency could eliminate the entire Aeronautical Research and Technology program and still could eliminate the entire Aeronautical Research and Technology program and still would need to find an additional $50 million in savings."

887. Ralph Nasen {Dir., Solar Power Satellites. Boeing Industry). STAR POWER, 95, 183.
"The results of the production cost estimates for a single 5,000-megawatt satellite was $12 billion. This cost was developed in 1979 dollars and includes the cost of the satellite. the ground receiver. and the cost of transporting it to space. This would be approximately $24 billion in 1995 dollars."

888. Ralph Nasen {Dir., Solar Power Satellites. Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 157.
"To make this initial comparison I will use the cost estimates generated by my Boeing team for the NASA/DOE studies, which were based on a satellite that had an output of live thousand megawatts. The cost estimates to produce a single satellite was $12 billion. This cost was developed in 1979 dollars, and includes the cost of the satellite, the ground receiver, and the cost of transporting the satellite hardware to space. The $12 billion would escalate to $24 billion in 1995 dollars."

889. Greg Easterbrook (Contributing Ed., Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 366-7.
Space solar. By the time sunlight reaches Earth's surface its energy value has attenuated. The incident power value of sunlight in space is. however, far higher. Suppose large mirrors or collectors were placed into orbit. The dishes would soak up intense space sunlight then beam power down to the ground. perhaps after converting it into microwaves for focused transmission. There lives today not a single sober soul who believes any nation of Earth could afford even one space solar-power array of magnitude. let alone enough to meet national energy needs." [Emphasis in original[

890. John S. Lewis (Dir.. Space Engineering Rsrch. Ctr.. NASA/U. AZ),MINING THE SKY, 96, 135.
"First. any solar array on the lunar surface shuts down during the 50 percent of the time that it is local night. and a solar array is vulnerable to thermal stress damage during the cooldown and warmup. For two weeks at a time, each lunar power station is out of service. Near the time of new moon there is no point on the Moon that can both see sunlight and transmit to Earth. Second. transmission of beamed microwave power to receiving antennas on Earth is somewhat more difficult than from HEEO, which is in turn more demanding than from GEO. Neither of these seems to be a show-stopper, but both factors must be taken into account in a detailed economic analysis."

891. Warren Leary (Staff, NY Times) in FRESNO BEE. Apt. 16, 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), AS.
"Although the technical problems remain, hydrogen's political future suddenly seems brighter. One of its leading advocates is Rep. Robert S. Walter, R-Pa., who became chairman of the House Science Committee in January. He is sponsoring a bill to increase the Department of Energy's $10 million budget fur hydrogen research by $100 million over the next three years. 'Hydrogen has amazing potential and it should have its chance,' Walker said. 'We have the ability to overcome a lot of the problems other people see with hydrogen and, if we can make it work. it would fundamentally change the country."'

892. David Garman (Sttaf, Senate Energy Rsrch.) in FEDERAL DOCUMENT CLEARING HOUSE CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY, Mar. 20, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), I.
"Appropriations for Hydrogen R&D have steadily grown from $2.5 million in FY 1991 to 14.5 million in FY 1996. Additional DOE funding for hydrogen related technologies such as fuel cell and biomass gasification research totaled $112.8 million in FY 1995. The Hydrogen Future Act (S. 1077 H.R. 655) increases authorization levels for the hydrogen R&D program to $40 million by FY 1998. The Hydrogen Fuel Cell Commercialization Act (S. 1153) also boosts the hydrogen R&D authorization to $40 million by FY 1998, but includes additional authorizations for and emphasis on fuel cell commercialization and demonstration ."

893. Jay Keller (Prog. Mgr., Sandia Nat'l. Lab) in HSE HRGS: COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, July 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), I.
"The Department of Energy has established capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories to address complex issues in hydrogen utilization. These capabilities include, but are not limited to, hydrogen storage and advanced materials expertise, associated with the nuclear weapons program for over 40 years; fundamental combustion expertise at the Combustion Research Facility, a DOE user facility supported by the office of Energy Research for over 20 years; and internal combustion engine expertise developed through the Office of Transportation Technologies over 20 years. I manage Sandia's hydrogen program and coordinate hydrogen utilization activities for the Department of Energy ."

894. LA TIMES, Apr. 30, 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 4.
"Energy experts have been singing the praises of hydrogen as a fuel for 25 years or more, but there are substantial reasons, having nothing to do with greedy oil companies, why such visions are not materializing. No one knows how to build the photovoltaic systems that would deliver at affordable prices the energy needed to produce the hydrogen in the first place. And no one knows how to store the stuff for use in a car with enough range to make the package attractive."

895. LA TIMES, April 30, 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 4.
"Energy experts have been singing the praises of hydrogen as a fuel for 25 years or more, but there are substantial reasons, having nothing to do with greedy oil companies. why such visions are not materializing. No one knows how to build the photovoltaic systems that would deliver at affordable prices the energy needed to produce the hydrogen in the first place. And no one knows how to store the stuff for use in a car with enough range to make the package attractive."

896. Robert Frenay (Contributing Ed.) in AUDUBON, May, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 24.
"Perhaps the largest hurdle to an economy based on hydrogen is the lack of infrastructure for its distribution and safe storage. But according to Harnessing Hydrogen: The Key to Sustainable Transportation, by James Cannon of the environmental research group Inform, there are now 1.3 million miles of natural gas pipelines in the United States that could be modified to carry hydrogen."

897. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 121.
"Ultimately, the large-scale use of renewable hydrogen as a fuel would require the development of much larger hydrogen transmission and distribution systems."

898. Clive Cookson (Staff) in FINANCIAL TIMES, Nov. 4, 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), I1.
"One big question is what fuel will be used if the transport industries take up the technology on a large scale. Compressed hydrogen, used in the Chicago buses, may be suitable for fleets with a centralized refueling depot but it would take many years and billions of dollars to build a nationwide network of hydrogen filling stations."

899. FINANCIAL TIMES, Aug. 2, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 8.
"Hydrogen is the most attractive fuel, technically and environmentally, for fuel cells. The only exhaust it produces is water. The trouble is that expenditure on a gigantic scale would be needed to build up the infrastructure of a 'hydrogen economy,' if hydrogen-powered cars are to be used widely. And widespread use of a potentially explosive gas could cause safety concerns.'

92

900. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 120-1,
"One of the key issues for development of hydrogen as a transportation fuel is that no large-scale hydrogen delivery system exists. This is unlike the situation for gasoline, electricity, or natural gas, where widespread distribution systems are already in place. Moreover, developing an infrastructure would be more difficult for hydrogen (which must be transported as a compressed gas, as a cryogenic liquid, or by pipeline) than for liquid fuels, such as methanol or ethanol, which can be transported and delivered to the consumer by using systems similar to that for gasoline."

901. Bjorn Gaudernack (Staff, lnst. Energy Tech.) in ENERGY, Nov., 96, 20.
"The 'hydrogen economy,' in which hydrogen will be a main carrier of energy from renewable sources, is a long-term prospect. In the near and medium-term, increasing demand for hydrogen--also as an energy carrier in special niche markets--will probably be satisfied by hydrogen obtained from fossil sources, mainly natural gas."

902. Jim Ritter (Staff) in, CHICAGO SUN-TIMES. May 19, 96 (Online. Nexis. 3/15/97), 30.
"And some day, researchers may find an economical way to produce hydrogen by using electricity from solar power or windmills. Such hydrogen would be clean and renewable and contribute nothing to global warming. It would be the ultimate environmental fuel. But, Ogden said. 'it's way off in the future."'

903. Michael Peavey (Pres., Merit Products), FUEL FROM WATER, 95. 79.
"A given weight of hydrogen has 2.8 times the energy of the same weight of gasoline, but on a volume basis liquid hydrogen has only 27% of the energy content of gasoline."

904. Greg Easterbrook (Contributing Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95,364.
"Engineering obstacles would make the switch to a hydrogen economy challenging; vehicles would have to carry it in highly compressed form, for example. But the only fundamental barrier is producing the hydrogen. The chemical bonds that join hydrogen and oxygen in water don't like to be broken. All current processes that disassociate water consume more energy than the fuel value of the hydrogen produced, making the process a net loser on a BTU basis."

905. Greg Easterbrook (Contributing Ed., Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95, 364.
"A few scientists have said an efficient process to split hydrogen from water is precluded by physical law."

906. Christopher Flavin (St. V.P., World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1995, 95, 72.
"The key to the practical use of hydrogen is efficiency. According to research carried out at Princeton University and the German Aerospace Research Establishment even if the marginal cost of the electricity used to produce hydrogen were only I-2 per kilowatt-hour, which may be possible m well-sited facilities built to produce power as well as hydrogen, the delivered cost of the fuel would still be more than three times as much as U.S. consumers now pay for natural gas, though roughly equal to what Europeans pay for gasoline (including taxes)."

907. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK. Open U.). RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 410.
"Currently, the price of hydrogen from renewables cannot compete with other fuels."

908. David Gapman (Stafff, Senate Energy Rsrch.) in FEDERAL DOCUMENT CLEARING HOUSE CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY. Mar. 20, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), I.
"Over the near-term, however, the costs of hydrogen extraction make its widespread use uneconomic.'

909. Michael Peavey (Pres., Merit Products), FUEL FROM WATER, 95, 200-1.
"Some disadvantages of hydrogen, as compared to natural gas are as follows: Because of the small size and high kinetic energy of the hydrogen molecule it is more likely to leak out of containers, and leak more rapidly, than natural gas. Hydrogen can reach its explosive limit four times faster. The flame is invisible and radiates less heat than a natural gas flame. This makes it easier to accidentally contact a hydrogen flame. Because all other gasses except helium and neon liquefy upon contact with liquid hydrogen only these two gases may be used as a purge gas when liquid hydrogen is used as a fuel. A purge gas is used to flush air out of storage tanks and fuel lines before fuel is put in the tanks."

910. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 380, 2.
"Geothermal 'pollutants' are chiefly confined to the non-condensable gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), with lesser amounts of hydrogen sulphide (H2S) or sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen (N2). In the condensed water there is also dissolved silica, heavy metals, sodium and potassium chlorides and sometimes carbonates, depending on the nature of the water-rock interaction at reservoir depths."

911. Leonard Greet (Staff. Pacific lnt'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.) in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95, 502.
"Following the testing of HGP-A, nearby residents began to complain about the test site's noise and odor. Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) emissions were particularly offensive since they produced a 'rotten egg' smell at certain concentration. As Hawaii's geothermal research efforts progressed, so did the vocal opposition of parts of the local community grow toward the development of this resource. Arguments used by the opponents were based on environmental, health. cultural, religious, and economic grounds."

912. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 203.
"Geothermal resources can be overexploited. however, meaning that heat is removed faster than natural reactions replace it. Developers of The Geysers, a major geothermal electricity-generating plant in California. have learned this lesson the hard way, watching output fall as the number of wells tapping the heat reservoir has grown. Water and steam released from the bowels of the earth usually contain dissolved minerals, salts, and gases that can become environmental hazards if not disposed of properly. In rare instances, removing large volumes of water from a geothermal well can make the ground above settle. Water or other fluids must be reinjected into the well to prevent this problem."

913. Resource Data Int'l. Inc. report for Ctr. Energy & Economic Devel. in ENERGY, Sept., 95, 28.
"Geothermal binary. system plants create no emissions, although flash designs release hydrochloric acid and potentially hazardous hydrogen sulfides."

914. Resource Data Int'l. Inc. report for Ctr. Energy & Economic Devel. in ENERGY, Sept., 95, 29.
Geothermal. Geothermal plants have proven a high availability, reaching annual capacity utilization beyond 90%. However, as with the other naturally occurring renewable energy sources, geothermal is limited by resource availability. Of the 2,700 megawatts of U.S. operating capacity, 905 is located in California." [Emphasis in original]

915. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 254.
"Geothermal energy is in a different category for a variety of reasons. In the first place, it is not renewable. The overall quantity of energy that can flow out of the earth must be limited, although on a human time scale that is not a matter of concern. Second, the particular sources of highly concentrated or otherwise favorable heat may be scarce and easily exhausted. Successful exploitation of geothermal energy can be found in the United States and other countries, as well."

93

916. William Peirce (Prof, Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 254-5.
"The simplest geothermal technique is to find an area of hot springs and geysers, drill a well that spouts steam, and use that directly for heating buildings or driving a turbine. The number of locations where this is possible is obviously limited, but it seems like a good idea to take advantage of what is available. Certain problems intrude. however. First, some of the most promising sites are located in national parks and are not available for development. Second, disposal of the brine may be an environmental problem because it is often laden with corrosive minerals. Third, because the brine is corrosive, it may present severe metallurgical problems."

917. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 152.
"Magma is molten rock with temperatures of roughly 700C to 1,200C (I,300F to 2,200F) and typically occurs at depths of 6 to 10 kin. Magma energy is the largest of all geothermal resources, but is also the most difficult to extract--for example, exposing the drilling equipment to extremely hot conditions and the possible explosive release of hot pressurized gases. Cost-effective use of this resource appears unlikely for the foreseeable future."

918. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 152.
"Geopressured brines are hot, salty waters containing dissolved methane that lie at depths of 3 to 6 km trapped under sediment layers at high pressures, with temperatures of 90C to 200C (190F to 390F). Proposed systems to tap geopressured brines are generally hybrid systems, using both the geothermal heat and burning the methane to generate power. Texas and Louisiana gulf coast areas hold the only major geopressured resources identified to date. Difficulties in extracting this resource include scaling (depositing minerals on equipment). its relatively low temperature (150C or 300 F in test wells). and disposal of the brine produced."

919. Ralph Nasen (Dir.. Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95. 101.
"The real question is whether we can tap the earth's core heat on a large scale. Concepts have been developed and some test work accomplished, but the case for large-scale development of geothermal does not look good."

920. Leonard Greet (Staff, Pacific lnt'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.) in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95, 507.
"The thrust of geothermal development has now shifted from meeting the energy needs of the whole state, to that of providing an alternative energy supply to just the island of Hawaii. Unrealistic initial resource evaluation and poor community support for the project appear to have been the principle reasons for the contraction of the Hawaii Geothermal Project's objectives."

921. Leonard Greer (Staff, Pacific Int'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.)in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95, 507.
"The lack of adequate information and understanding concerning the physical characteristics and dynamics of Hawaii's geothermal reservoirs. especially their life and reliability proved to be an important technical barrier. These technical problems were compounded by the vigorous opposition by local community groups to the development of this resource."

922. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK. Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 380.
"The question of whether there is induced seismicity around geothermal sites has been much debated, and it must be recognized that most steam fields are located in regions already prone to natural earthquakes. Yet there is evidence that fluid injection lubricates fractures and increases pore pressures, creating small earthquakes (microseismicity), especially where reinjection is not at the same depth as the producing aquifer (mainly for reasons of fluid disposal)."

923. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 353-4.
"Hot dry rock (HDR) technology has been the subject of much recent research. Although vast potential resources exist. the technology has yet to be fully developed. Experiments in opening up the pre-existing joints of hot dry rocks have only been partially successful; lower resistance to the flow of liquid, better underground heat transfer surface areas and lower water loss rates need to be developed, along with a better understanding of subsurface stress regimes,"

924. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 201.
"Magma represents an even more powerful and long-lasting Geothermal energy source than hot dry rock. But it also poses serious technical and engineering challenges. In most parts of the United States, molten magma lies more than 20 miles below sea level."

925. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 81.
"Drilling for geothermal energy can be a risky business. The earth's surface doesn't sport signs that say 'Drill here,' and, short of drilling, engineers haven't yet perfected a foolproof method for identifying sizable reservoirs of underground hot water or steam."

926. D. A. Elliot (Dir., Open U. Tech. Policy Group), POWER FROM THE WAVES, 95, 31.
"Finally, consider one of the finest achievements of the C EG B, the building of a pumped storage station at Dinorwig in north Wales. Water is pumped up a mountain and released when demand grows for electricity. How much does a unit of Dinorwig electricity cost? The answer is infinity because it actually consumes more energy than it produces. It requires four units of electricity to pump the water up the mountainside, in order to receive three units when it comes down."

927. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 160.
"The capital costs for new U.S. hydropower facilities range widely around a median price of about $2,000/kW, operations and maintenance costs at large facilities typically average roughly 0.5/kWh, operating lifetimes are usually assumed to be 45 years, and operational capacity factors are 36 to 45 percent. Together, these parameters give costs of roughly 6/kWh. Hydropower costs often range between 4.5/kWh to 7.5/kWh, with considerable variation above and below this range. No significant cost reductions are foreseen. These costs are generally competitive with fossil-generated power."

928. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK. Open U.), RENEWABEL ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 222.
"If hydroelectricity has so many of the desirable features listed in Section 5.12 and existing plant is producing cheaper power than from any other source, why are the utility companies and private producers in so many countries rushing to build gas turbine plants instead? The answer seems to lie in the fact discussed above, that hydroelectric plant is capital-intensive."

929. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 224.
"In the USA, the existing hydroelectricity capacity of 72 GW is predicted to rise by about 20% before the end of the century, but much of the increase will come from the up-grading of existing schemes, installing more modern equipment to improve their efficiency. Where available this option has the obvious attraction of providing additional capacity without the full costs of major civil engineering work."

930. Nancy Cole (Stall', Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 197.
"Rivers currently contribute somewhere between 10 percent and 12 percent of the U.S. electricity supply, depending on rain and snowfall. That's the equivalent of fifty nuclear power plants. There is some potential for expansion, but not nearly as much as for other renewable resources. Dams and hydropower plants have been constructed in the United States on a regular basis for the last seventy or eighty years. making hydro a mature renewable energy source--most of the best sites have been developed and much of the potential has been tapped."

931. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 160.
"Of all the sources above, hydro provides the lowest cost power. Unfortunately we have already built dams on most of our rivers so there is little chance of adding significantly more hydro power. The only exception is the state of Alaska, and it is far from the centers of demands.'

932. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 141.
"In some instances, the water pressure behind large dams has triggered earthquakes, creating a severe hazard for communities downstream ."

94

933. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 215.
"That dams in regions subject to earthquakes are particularly at risk is obvious, but recent debate has also centered on the question whether the weight of a major dam and its associated large volume of water can actually cause earthquakes. Measurements made as the water level of the Zambesi rose behind the newly-completed Kariba Dam in the early 1960s revealed changes in ground level as much as 36 km away, and the year or so after the reservoir reached its final level saw a striking rise in the number of earthquakes, including some at magnitude 5 or more on the Richter scale." [Emphasis in original]

934. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95. 141.
"The spawning grounds of fish, such as salmon, are often Mined by hydroelectric facilities. Impounding a river drastically changes the surrounding ecosystem. Instead of nutrient-bearing sediments being deposited on agricultural floodplains and providing food for fish, they build up behind dams and lessen the capacity and power output of the facility. This reduces the fertility of valuable farmlands at river mouths and decreases the amount of fish available for commerce, recreation. and survival. Hydroelectric dams can alter the oxygen and temperature of downstream waters, having a negative impact on aquatic species."

935. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE
ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. 96, 212.
"The ecological damage per unit of energy produced is probably greater for hydroelectricity than for any other energy source."

936. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 160-1.
"Although hydro has long proven to be a reliable and cost-effective resource, and once constructed, does not release carbon dioxide, a number of environmental concerns have been raised. These include inundating wildlife habitat: changing aquatic ecosystems and water quality--including temperature, dissolved oxygen and nitrogen, and sediment levels: causing high mortality among fish passing through the turbine and affecting fish migrations. Large and/or rapid variations in hydropower output may also damage aquatic habitats, streambeds, or cause other problems."

937. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 198.
"The main constraints on hydropower development are its impacts on fish, wildlife, and local communities. Though hydropower plants generate electricity without polluting the air, dams flood large areas. covering much more land. in fact. than solar facilities producing the same amount of power. Turning a narrow stretch of moving water into a wide. still pond or lake completely alters the ecosystem, disrupting long-established plant and animal communities and eliminating the scenic beauty of a tumbling open river."

938. Leonard Greer (Staff, Pacific Int'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.)in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95, 478-9.
"Wave power plants can be built on land, on caissons in relatively shallow water (5 to 15 meters in depth), or in deeper offshore waters. Land and caisson based systems have achieved the greatest development progress to date, but their deployment involves significant shoreline modification and attendant environmental concerns."

939. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 252.
"The awesome power of waves has stirred the imaginations of dreamers for centuries. A few contraptions have succeeded in tapping that power for specialized uses. The only use that has ever come close to being routine has been the powering of some navigational aids. The basic problems are the irregularity of wave action and the difficult conditions of the shore environment."

940. Leonard Greer (Staff, Pacific lnt'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.) in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95. 479.
"Because shoreline power stations will always be affected by infrastructure and (especially in Hawaii) environmental constraints. wave energy will probably have to be obtained from offshore or nearshore waves in order to achieve a sizable contribution. However, solving the technical problems of nearshore and off-shore devices, acquiring the operational experience, and ultimately developing commercial confidence in the longevity and durability of such devices will take time."

941. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95, 197.
"Wave power captures the ceaseless up-and-down motion of sea water and converts it into electricity. It works quite well for powering buoy markers and navigational warning beacons. Larger systems have been proposed and a few tested, but none yet appear to be feasible." [Emphasis in original]

942. William Peirce (Prof., Eco.. Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 275.
"Although the buildup of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is sometimes discussed as though it were the ultimate catastrophe, some of the allegedly soft techniques of energy production may have similarly harsh environmental effects. Tapping heat differentials in the ocean would bring nutrient-rich bottom water to the top, where biological activity occurs. This upwelling of nutrients is cited as a principal advantage of the plan, but it is not obvious that such an environmental disruption is more benign than the 'thermal enrichment' of the lakes or river from which the cooling water for a nuclear or coal-fired electric plant is drawn. Extracting enough heat from ocean currents might even cause the currents to shift, with catastrophic effects on local climates and economies."

943. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER. 95, 100.
"The concept is to use the warm solar-heated water near the surface of the ocean as a heat source and the cool water several thousand feet down as a heat sink to reject heat. The problem is that the maximum differential is only about 45 degrees Fahrenheit. As a result, massive amounts of water must be moved to provide significant amounts of power. Moving massive amounts of water from the surface to a depth of 3000 feet, or vice versa, takes huge equipment. All of this equipment would be moored in deep water at selected ocean sites that had sufficient temperature differentials. Maximum efficiencies believed to be achievable would be about 3%, with realistic efficiencies probably closer to I%. The question of economic viability pivots on whether it is possible to build and maintain such massive facilities in the hostile environment of the sea for sufficiently low cost--it is not likely."

944. Nancy Cole (Staff, Union Concerned Scientists), REN EWABLES ARE READY, 95, 197.
"Ocean thermal energy conversion uses heat collected in the top layer of ocean water to boil an easily vaporized substance, such as ammonia. The resulting vapor tams a turbine. Icy cold water drawn from the ocean's depth cools and condenses the vapor. Ocean thermal energy plants have successfully generated electricity twice, first off the coast of Cuba in 1929, and again off Hawaii in the early 1980s. Making this technology economically feasible, however. is proving difficult." [Emphasis in original]

945. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 81.
"Initial experiments made on a ship in the Caribbean in the 1930s were only marginally successful. Water had to be pumped from a great depth to obtain a significant temperature difference, and the whole system barely produced more energy than it used in pumping. More recently, large-scale experiments have been carried out in the Pacific with more success, and a large number of experimental schemes have been conceived. The engineering difficulties are enormous. An OTEC station producing 100 MW of electricity would need to pump nearly 500 cubic meters per second of both warm and cold water through its heat exchangers, whilst remaining moored in sea I000 meters deep."

946. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 99-100.
"The last earth-based solar system considered during the 1970s was ocean thermal gradient, which uses the temperature differences found in the oceans. Whenever a steady-state temperature differential exists between two sources, there is a possibility of operating a thermal engine. The greater the two temperature extremes, the easier this is to accomplish and the more mechanical energy can be extracted. The situation really becomes challenging when the two temperatures are close together, as would be the case with ocean thermal gradient power generation."

95

947. Leonard Greer (Staff, Pacific lnt'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.) in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95, 471.
"The State of Hawaii contributed almost $2 million toward this project. This included environmental baseline studies of the proposed plant site and a day and a half workshop for 55 federal, state, and county regulatory official concerning the plant's design and location. However, as oil prices dropped in the mid 1980s, the economic viability of this project became questionable. In 1984, the construction costs estimates for this facility were over $300 million (or $7,500 per kW). The Ocean Thermal Corporation was unable to find partners willing to finance the continued design work and construction of this closed cycle OTEC plant. The Ocean Thermal Corporation was dissolved by its parent company, which announced that it had no further plans in pursuing the project."

948. Leonard Greet (Staff, Pacific lnt'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.) in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95, 508.
"Although the low level of market penetration by renewable energy technologies has been disappointing, a fact attributable in large part to the continuing low price of oil on the international market, Hawaii's energy research and development community can be proud of its contributions to advancing the state of the technologies, particularly OTEC, and to the understanding of the state's renewable energy resource base."

949. Leonard Greer (Staff, Pacific lnt'l. Ctr. High Tech Rsrch.) in ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY, 95, 508.
"Demonstration in Hawaii has taken much longer than anticipated. and. in some cases, has yet to occur. Interest in OTEC, now seen as a long term option (one and more likely two or more decades in the future), has decrease for the foreseeable future."

950. William Peirce (Prof, Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 252-3.
"Such turbines have been made to work, but there are at least three fundamental problems: First, the apparatus has to be huge to extract much energy from such a slight temperature differential. This immediately raises a difficult engineering problem in trying to keep UCC within an economically feasible range. The second problem is that the sea is a cruel environment for a huge, lightly built machine. Will it really survive both the ferocity of storms and the quieter destructiveness of corrosion and marine organisms? Third, what use is the power in open ocean? Various possible ways to store or transmit it have been suggested. but these do not alter the fundamental fact that energy is worth a good deal less when it is several miles offshore than when it is available at some home or factory."

951. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 245.
'The environmental case against barrages is. however, a far from trivial one. For example. the prospect of barrages on UK estuaries has been opposed by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, which sees them as inherently damaging reducing habitats for key species. particularly migrant birds. This problem could clearly be compounded if several barrages were to be built. The debate has become quite heated at times, with some national and local environmental pressure groups coming out strongly against barrages. Friends of the Earth, for example. argues that whilst each project should be assessed on its merits. in general large barrages are likely to have a net negative impact, and the organization currently opposes the proposed Severn and Mersey barrages."

952. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK. Open U.). RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 253.
"The period during which power can be produced, at least for simple single-basin ebb or flow systems, is clearly less than for a conventional power plant. For example, since it would only operate during tidal cycles, the 8.6 GW turbine capacity of the Severn Barrage could, very. roughly, only offer the same 'equivalent firm capacity' as a 1-2 GW conventional plant. In other words, the barrage requires a large investment in expensive capacity which is only used intermittently and can therefore only replace a limited amount of conventional plant output."

953. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 249.
"The electricity produced by barrages must normally be integrated with the electricity produced by the other power plants that feed into the national grid power transmission network. The key problem in feeding power from a tidal barrage into national grid networks is that, with conventional ebb or flow generation schemes, the tidal energy inputs come in relatively short bursts at approximately 12-hour intervals. Typically, power can be produced for five to six hours during spring tides and three hours during neap tides, within a tidal cycle lasting 12.4 hours. Clearly, the availability of power from a barrage would not always match the pattern of demand for power on the grid."

954. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 254.
"Tidal projects have a relatively high capital cost in relation to the usable output, compared with most other types of power plant, with, consequently, long capital payback times and low rates of return on the capital invested, the precise figures depending on the price that can be charged for the electricity."

955. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 255.
"Although it is possible that fossil fuel and nuclear electricity prices will increase over time, so that tidal energy projects become more attractive, under present conditions tidal energy appears to be a relatively unattractive commercial investment option."

956. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK. Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 235.
"To date, the only tidal power plant of any size to have been installed is the 240 megawatt (MW)-rated prototype barrage on the Rance Estuary in Brittany, on the west coast of France, which has been operating successfully for more than 25 years. A single 18 MW-rated turbine was installed in the mid-1980s at Annapolis Royal in Nova Scotia, Canada, and there are a number of other much smaller projects around the world. including a prototype in a small estuary off the White Sea near Murmansk in Russia and several in China."

957. Melvin L. Prueitt (Los Alamos Nat'l. Lab) in PLASMA SCI. & THE ENVIR., 96, 159-60.
"Although the purpose of convection towers is to improve the environment, every process produces some form of pollution. The pollution removed from the air is added to the water. Even though the scrubbing of the air adds only a few parts per million of pollutants, and seawater already has many thousands of parts per million of impurities, it is still considered to pollute the seawater. But the main concern is the increased salinity of the seawater. Suggestions have been made that the effluent be diluted before returning it to the ocean or that it be pumped to deep ocean where the salinity is naturally higher. This problem has not been resolved. It will require research to make certain that environmental laws are followed."

958. SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE, Sept. 25, 96, I-6, 5.
"'Right now, this technology is kind of embryonic,' said Katz. 'It needs to be tested on a large scale. Once that happens, then you can attract the investors who will make it happen big-time.' Not necessarily, said Arturn Winer, director of the environmental science and engineering program at UCLA. 'The time to clean air is before the pollutants are emitted or just afterward when the gases are most condensed,' Winer said. 'This is like a genie in a bottle. You don't want to let the pollutants out because once the pollutants are mixed in the atmosphere, either globally or regionally, then it becomes extremely costly and impractical to reduce the pollution. 'I don't want to disparage this idea. It might be the right technology. But over 25 years, I've seen many schemes proposed to clean L.A.'s air. Some hilarious, some not. But none of them have stood up to scrutiny. None have ever been implemented. This just isn't philosophically the right way to go about it."

959. SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE, Sept. 25, 96, 1-6, 4.
"The price tab has so far stymied building any tower models bigger than 12 feet tall. 'That model showed the idea works in principal but it was too small to generate more than a light breeze and no power,' Prueitt said."

96

960. Melvin L. Prueitt (Rsrch. Scientist, Los Alamos Nat'l. Lab) in THE WORLD & l, Dec.. 66, 15 I.
"Phillip Carlson at Lockheed received a patent on convection towers for producing electric power in 1975. He proposed building huge towers in the desert that would use seawater to cool the air. In recent years, Dan Zaslavsky and his team at Technion-lsrael Institute of Technology have done considerable work in showing the economic feasibility of convection towers. His plans call for constructing towers about 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) tall and half as wide in the desert and using seawater from the Red Sea. He proposes to use a lattice framework for the shell of the tower, with sheet metal attached to the lattice to form the air-tight cylinder. A single such tower would produce about 500 megawatts (MW) of power and would cost over a billion dollars to build."

961. SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE, Sept. 25.96, 1-6, 3.
"Actually building the towers seems less of a problem. The most common design calls for hollow cylinders framed by corrosion-resistant aluminum latticework then wrapped in weatherproof fabric. Construction would be fairly routine, said Wendel R. Wendel, president of Starnet International Corp., an international engineering and construction firm based in Florida that has collaborated with Israel on the project. Technically, it's not a major problem,' said Wendel. 'It's really just a question of funding.' He figures the cost of a 3,000-1hot aluminum-and-fabric tower at approximately $300 million."

962. Nat'l. Academics Policy Advisory Group (England) Report. ENERGY & THE ENVIR. IN THE 21ST CENT., July, 95, 61.
"The necessary nuclear reactions have been achieved on a small scale, though a fusion reactor producing more electricity than it consumes has not yet been built."

963. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 102.
"Research has been going on throughout the world since 1951 to develop a method of achieving a controlled fusion reaction that can be harnessed into generating electrical power. The great advantage would be nuclear power using hydrogen as a fuel without the radiation dangers of fission reactors. The difficulties in achieving a controlled reaction are immense. Many breakthroughs have been announced. but the researchers have yet to achieve a reaction that could be used to extract useful energy."

964. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 102.
"Fusion power research goes on at high levels of expenditure, and the predictions continue that it is only 20 or 30 or maybe as long as 50 years in the future, but it seems that the goal is more elusive than ever."

965. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.). ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96. 258.
"The nuclear reaction that has attracted the most attention is the fusing of deuterium and tritium to yield a neutron and helium. Since there is not much tritium available, it must be bred by firing neutrons at lithium. The tritium can be produced from the lithium. but confining the deuterium and tritium at high enough temperatures to bring about the reaction is extremely difficult. Until it is clear that a particular method. such as extremely powerful significant amounts of power. it is not even possible to estimate the bill of materials for fusion power, let alone make an economic analysis. A meaningful economic evaluation of fusion power is not possible at this time."

966. Charles Arthur (Staff) in THE INDEPENDENT, Jan. 13.97 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 20.
"The physics of containment, and of the motion of the particles, is so incredibly complex that it has taken 50 years to get to a point where success--a commercial fusion reactor--is still 50 years away. And if the predictions of the turbulence effects are correct, it's even further off William Dorland, who did some of the new work, told Physics World: "lt's good news, bad news and extra good news. The good news is that fusion physicists for the first time really understand something about the process of turbulence. The bad is that the present operating mode for lter wouldn't meet expectations by a large margin. The extra good news is that once physicists understand a phenomenon, they can exploit that to make the machine better."'

967. William Baarschers (Prof., Chem., Lakehead U., Canada), ECO-FACTS & ECO-FICTION, 96, 122.
"Thomas Erber of the Illinois Institute of Technology commented. during a conference on the controversial cold fusion project, that fusion research so far has been 'inefficient, dangerous. complex and very expensive.' How expensive? About $750 million a year, presumably a figure that relates to the USA. No doubt, commercial energy from nuclear fusion is still far in the future."

968. Frank Munger (Staff) in KNOXVILLE-NEWS-SENTINEL, Sept. 2, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), BI.
"Fusion energy involves the fusing of light nuclei, mimicking a natural process that takes place continually on the sun's surface. Because of its great potential-offering an unlimited fuel supply without the dangers and waste problems associated with nuclear fission--fusion remains attractive. Fusion has been under development for decades, with notable progress, but it is not a short-term energy option."

969. Keay Davidson (Staff, San Francisco Examiner) in THE TIMES-PICAYUNE, June 2. 96 (Online, Nexis. 3/15/97), AI.
"'It's not clear that there's an urgent need for fusion energy in the next 50 years,' said Fusion Power President Stephen Dean. Instead. Dean said, alternative energy devices, such as new gas turbines, are available: 'There's a lot of(alternative) possibilities to make cheap energy for the next 30 years .... You can't say the country can't survive without (fusion) for at least 30 to 50 years."' [Ellipsis in original]

970. Keay Davidson (Staff. San Fran. Examiner) in TIMES-PICAYUNE. June 2, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), A 1.
"'It's not clear that there's an urgent need for fusion energy in the next 50 years,' said Fusion Power President Stephen Dean. Instead Dean said, alternative energy devices, such as new gas turbines. are available: 'There's a lot of(alternative) possibilities to make cheap energy for the next 30 years .... You can't say the country can't survive without (fusion) fur at least 30 to 50 years."' [Ellipsis in original]

971. William Peirce (Prof. Eco., Case Western Reserve U.). ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES. 96, 259.
"An economically relevant time period is one generation or less. because any investments made today will be highly amortized or be obsolete within that period and the relative prices, tastes, and technology of the more distant future cannot be stated with sufficient precision to serve any purpose. with normal interest rates, no return that is realized a generation from today has any economic value worth considering now. It follows. then. that many of the possibilities mentioned in this chapter will have little or no role in an economic forecast. Certainly, fusion power will not be commercial within that time period. and. with less certainty. the same forecast can be made for some of the more grandiose solar projects (orbiting collectors. for example)."

972. Ralph Nasen (Dir., Solar Power Satellites, Boeing Industry), STAR POWER, 95, 7.
"The other hope held out over the years is nuclear fusion. For the past 45 years, it has been touted as the energy source of the future that is 'only 20 years away.' Tens of billions of dollars have been spent on research, and nuclear fusion is now farther in the future than ever before even though it is still being heavily funded."

973. Greg Easterbrook (Contributing Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 365-6.
"Fusing of atoms generates much more energy than fission. but fusion processes are far harder to ignite. For three decades research centers in the U.S., the former Soviet Union, and Europe have been attempting to ignite fusion reactions under controlled circumstances. This effort has cost many billions of dollars, rubles, and francs and produced no practical design."

974. FINANCIAL T1MES, May 13, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 18.
"Research into nuclear fusion is exciting ('Jet gets off the ground', May 8), but is it useful? Outside the nuclear world. it is difficult to imagine a parallel for spending Pounds 3.9bn for an experimental reactor on top of the billions spent over the last 17 years, to produce half an hour of sustained heat ten years from now. The oat, working fusion reactor, the sun, delivers to earth more energy than humankind could ever use. A sustainable energy economy will eventually be based on solar energy embodied in light, wind, waves and crops. In transition we will learn to use energy much more efficiently and make careful use of scarce natural gas in combined heat and power plants. These developments will be challenging, but they have three advantages over nuclear fusion: they work they are available now and their costs are at least within sight of current market prices."

97

975. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 258-9.
- "The implication of the long and expensive research and development period (filly to a hundred years or more) is that any conventional accounting technique would have rejected fusion power at the outset. If you have to wait a century for the payoff, you really need to expect an infinite payoff. Yet the fusion reactor, as far as can be forecast at this stage. will be comparable in many respects with the fast breeder reactors that were until recently under development in several countries, but which have now been abandoned everywhere except in France and Japan. It is probably better to charge off current fusion research to insatiable curiosity, and if it also turns out to yield a reasonably safe source of large amounts of energy that is not outrageously expensive, then that will be a welcome dividend."

976. NEW TECHNOLOGY WEEK. June I0, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/1/97). I.
"Ralph Merkle, a computational nanotechnologist at Xerox Palo Alto Research Center, says that the nanoworld is the future of electronics: The era of improving the performance of electronic devices by shrinking their dimensions with lithography technology is coming to an end in a decade or so. 'If we are to continue these trends, we will have to develop a new, 'postlithographic' manufacturing technology,' says Merkle. Not only must it be inexpensive but. he says. it must allow us to produce 'quantities of logic elements that are molecular in both size and precision and are interconnected in complex and highly idiosyncratic patterns.' The problem, says Merkle. is that today's tools for manipulating materials at the atomic scale are relatively crude."

977. Ed Regis (Staff in REASON, Dec. 95 (Online, Nexis. 4/2/97), 28.
"In fact. maybe his whole scheme was nuts after all. Scientists. some of them, had some rather bad things to say about Eric Drexler. Calvin Quate. professor of electrical engineering at Stanford, said: '1 don't think he should be taken seriously. He's too far out. "'

978. Ralph Merkle (Rsrch. Scientist. XEROX) in TECHNOLOGY REV.. Feb. 12, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 25.
"Although such perfection is theoretically attainable. today's technology is not up to the task. A chemical synthesis process that chemists view as very good converts 99 percent of the reactants to the desired product. Yet that 99 percent yield represents an error rate of one in 100, which is ten million times less perfect than we desire for a mature nanotechnology. The synthesis of proteins from amino acids by ribosomes has error rate of perhaps one in I 0,000. DNA. by relying on extensive error detection and correction along with built-in redundancy (the molecule has two complementary strands), achieves an error rate of roughly one base in a billion when replicating itself."

979. Ralph Merkle (Rsrch. Scientist. XEROX) in TECHNOEOGY REV.. Feb. 12, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/2/97), 25.
"Self-assembly is not by itself sufficient, however. to make the wide range of products that nanotechnology promises. lithe parts are indiscriminately sticky, for example, then stirring them together would yield messy blobs instead of precise molecular machines."

980. Stephen Plain (Staff) in COMPUTER SHOPPER, Apt. I. 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/2/97), 560.
"Technological hurdles stand between today's state of the art and tomorrow's fully implemented nanotechnology, however."

981. Ed Regis (Staff) in REASON, Dec. 95 (Online, Nexis. 4/2/97), 28.
"Nanotechnology itself came off no better. 'It's this basic hand-waving stuff that anyone can do,' said Kurt Mislow, a Princeton University chemist. 'It's like science fiction, and it turns me off in a major kind of way.' It was science fiction. so the argument went, because atoms couldn't be manipulated as if they were bricks. You couldn't pin them down or hold them in place, much less maneuver them round like marbles as Mr. Nano wanted to do. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, the pillar of modern physics, put paid to that idea."

982. Paul Rogers (Staff), THE INDEPENDENT. Jan. 14, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/2/97), I.
"Professor Wilkinson takes the middle road, arguing that nano-robots are feasible but impractical. Given the time needed to make nano-components, a nano-robot could be as expensive as a private plane today. There may be large amounts of money to be found in the tiny nano-tech world. but the routes to them are unlikely to be glamorous."

983. Paul Rogers (Staff), THE INDEPENDENT, Jan. 14, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), I.
"While there is little doubt that nano-tech will be a booming opportunity for business in the next decade, nobody is entirely sure what direction it will take. 'There are a lot of exciting ideas, many of which won't happen and a few of which will be wild successes,' says Dr. Jackman. but will nano-tech led to sub-microscopic robots, as predicted by Dr. Drexler? While experts are agreed that it will result in a flood of new products, there is a division of opinion about this. 'My advice is to be very cautious about some of the predictions,' Professor Palmer says."

984. Ed Regis (Staff in REASON, Dec. 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 28.
"Plus, molecules were always jostling and bouncing and twitching around: they were always in constant motion. How could you build a mechanical device out of parts that never stood still? And if by some miracle both these difficulties could be escaped and avoided, then radiation or friction or some other atomic complication would attack your little nano-mechanism and mangle it beyond belief. So much for Drexler's nano dreams."

985. Stephen Plain (Staff in COMPUTER SHOPPER, Apt. 1.96 (Online, Nexis. 4/2/97), 560.
"A likely scenario could be a bug in an assembly program that runs molt, wreaking havoc in unpredictable ways. The effect of malicious computer viruses on these programs is almost unthinkable."

986. Stephen Plain (Staff in COMPUTER SHOPPER. Apr. 1.96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 560.                                           '
"While the prospect of achieving precise control of atoms with tiny assembly lines of nanomachines is bracing, the evolution of this technology is also bound to present unprecedented challenges to society as well. Drexler and others in the nanotechnology community are already focusing much of their attention on how we will deal with this ultimate technical power. In a world where something as benign as the present-day Internet poses worldwide political turmoil, it is highly likely that governmental regulation will rear its gargantuan head when nanotechnology approaches reality. As burdensome as this can be, government intervention will probably be necessary since nanotechnology will pose unbelievable security implications. not to mention moral ones."

987. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95.2.
"It should be noted that RETs are not the only technologies than can help meet national energy goals. Energy efficiency improvements, cleaner conventional technologies. increasing use of natural gas and other lower emission fuels, and other fuels and technologies are all competing fur these markets."

988. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95. 147.
"Even with these improvements, the United States has only just begun to reap the benefits of energy efficiency. Efficiency has become a key ingredient in economic success. As a 1987 report of the International Energy Agency stated, 'Investment in energy conservation at the margin provides a better return than investment in energy supply.' Most energy experts agree that conservation can, and should, play a major role in our national energy future. Fortunately, many such measures have been enacted into law under CNEP."

989. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.). BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 19.
"Federal and state support for efficiency programs has been critical to the success of programs nationwide. According to the Congressional Research Service, the federal government has spent a total of $5.7 billion on energy-efficiency research and development since 1973. Technologies advanced by these efforts have saved American homeowners and businesses $226 billion. and will save billions more over the life cycle of the efficiency improvements."

98

990. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 20.
"Federal energy-efficiency programs make it possible for numerous state and local agencies to provide the technical and financial capacity for residential, commercial and industrial DSM programs. The nationwide efficiency effort has reduced national energy use; if the United States were still consuming energy as intensively as it did in 1973. it would have consumed approximately 116 quads in 1992 instead of the 85.5 quads actually consumed. This reduction in energy use represents a savings in energy costs to the American consumer of approximately $170 billion. Federal energy-efficiency investments have been critical--and successful."

991. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan.. 96, 20.
"Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). As the world's largest consumer of goods and services, the federal government has a major impact on the marketplace. Energy consumption by the federal government can be reduced substantially through energy-efficiency measures. FEMP coordinates the reduction effort. If all agencies implemented the FEMP requirements of the Energy Policy Act of 1002 (EPAct) and Executive Order 12902, the agencies would save as much as $400 million annually by 2000 and $1 billion annually by 2005. FEMP has successfully cut net energy consumption by 20 percent in four federal agencies (Energy, Interior, Justice, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency), and by 100 percent in six more (Agriculture, Defense, Transportation, Veterans Affairs. General Services Administration, and NASA)." [Emphasis in original]

992. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 20.
"State Energy Conservation Program. The federally-supported State Energy Conservation Program (SECP) provides the resources for many of the services provided by state energy offices. SECP funds are used nationwide for energy training, waste minimization. recycling, home energy rating systems, computerized bus routings to save energy, energy emergency planning, promotion of natural gas vehicles, and many other activities. Many states use SECP funds to provide technical assistance to businesses and industries for reducing their energy consumption. thus reducing associated costs." [Emphasis in original]

993. Frank Kreith (Consulting Engineer) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97. 5.
"The energy intensities of industry and residential buildings have shown the greatest improvement in energy efficiency. The need for further improvement has been incorporated into the provisions of the 1992 National Energy Policy Act (EPACT), which aims to ensure continued improvement in energy efficiencies in all sectors for the future. Under this Act, future utility energy planning will have to follow an integrated approach that requires comparisons of various technologies to provide specified services."

994. Douglas Ogden (Arty.. Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 20.
"Institutional Conservation Program. The Institutional Conservation Program (ICP) provides matching funds and technical assistance to schools and hospitals for energy-saving capital improvements for buildings, equipment, mechanical systems, and controls. Approximately 65,000 buildings--22 percent of all eligible structures in the country have energy improvement through ICP. DOE estimates the cumulative energy cost savings directly attributable to ICP-supported retrofits totaled $4.1 billion through 1991 .'

995. Douglas Ogden (Arty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan.. 96, 20.
"U.S. Department of Energy 'Weatherization Assistance Program.' The DOE's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) provides, through state energy offices, grants to community-based service providers for weatherization of low-income family residences, particularly those housing children, the elderly, and disabled family members. Since its inception in 1976, WAP has lowered the energy cost of more than 4.4 million homes, saving the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil.' [Emphasis in original]

996. David Roodman (Staff. World Watch Inst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1997, 97, 145.
"One realm in which subsidies for environmentally important technologies have worked fairly well is energy efficiency. Three of the most successful technologies supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - heat-reflecting windows, electronic ballasts fluorescent lights, and variable-capacity supermarket refrigeration systems--are now saving enough energy to easily justify, DOE's entire $425-million efficiency R&D budget."

997. David Roodman (Staff, World Watch Inst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1997, 97, 145-6.
"Though tiny, the $23.7 million public investment in these three technologies was pivotal to their development. In all three cases, it was small companies, which would have had difficulty embarking on such risky research on their own, that vied for the initial grants. Only when their efforts bore fruit did established firms take notice. Most likely, then, it would have taken much longer for the technologies to have developed without government help. The efficient windows, ballasts, and refrigerators already sold in the United States will save $8.9 billion in fuel costs over their lifetimes--375 times what DOE spent developing them."

998. David Roodman (Staff, World Watch Inst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1997, 97, 146.
"A key circumstance behind these impressive numbers is that with businesses and consumers spending so much on energy--S500 billion per year in the United States alone---one successful energy efficiency R&D grant can quickly save enough money to make up for dozens of failed ones."

999. Douglas Ogden (Arty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 32.
 The Federal Housing Administration. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, various lenders, and numerous utilities have introduced new financing products for energy-efficiency upgrades. Home buyers are being encouraged to install efficiency improvements at the time of purchase through Energy Efficient Mortgages (EEMs)--which provide financing for efficiency upgrades as pan of a home mortgage package."

1000. Mary Walker (Fmr. Asst. Sec.. U.S. Dept. Energy) in CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 24, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/1/97), 19.
"Much has already been achieved. The US contribution of man-made carbon dioxide emissions has significantly declined over the past two decades and will continue to decline. thanks to advances in more energy-efficient technologies."

1001. Douglas Ogden (Arty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan.. 96, 2.
"Numerous studies have examined the impact of a national energy strategy that emphasizes greater energy efficiency. America's Energy Choices, for example, showed that vigorous adoption of cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy measures could cut national energy usage in 2030 by nearly 50 percent. Those same measures could dramatically reduce our nation's petroleum dependence, save consumers more than $2 trillion net over the next 40 years, and cut carbon dioxide emissions to 2030 by more than 70 percent (relative to emissions in 1988)." [Emphasis in original]

1002. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report, GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95.23.
"In general, technologies capable of substantial improvements in energy efficiency are commercially available. The IEA has assessed the scope for potential energy saving for different end-use activities in the residential. commercial, industrial and transport sector. and the extent to which savings are inhibited by market imperfections or other barriers. These results. summarized in Table 3.1 and discussed in more detail in Annex A, Note 6, suggest that reductions of CO2 emissions of up to 30 per cent can be reached by implementing known energy efficiency measures."

1003. EXPLAINING CLIMATE CHANGE (World Wildlife Fund Report), Feb., 96, 24.
"There are many combinations of energy options and improvements in energy efficiency that could yield deep reductions in CO2 emissions within 50 to 100 years."

1004. John Bliese (Prof., Comm. Studies, TX Tech. U.), MODERN AGE, Winter, 96, 153.
"We could slow significantly the addition of carbon dioxide and buy time for more scientific studies simply by using energy much more efficiently--which would be entirely beneficial on its own. We, especially in the United States, waste enormous amounts of energy. Merely by becoming more efficient we could reduce the output of greenhouse gases significantly, while saving lots of money and becoming more competitive economically. The conservative principle of prudence, applied to the problem of global warming, would surely result in wiser public policies than we are now pursuing."

99

1005. Adam Rose (Prof., Mineral Eco., PA St. U.) in THE ENERGY JRNL. #3, 95, 69.
"Optimistic estimates of costless conservation--in the range of 20% to 30% total for the near term--are offered by OTA-( 1991 ), N AS ( 1991 ), Lovins and Lovins ( 1991 ), and Jaccard et al. (1993). This holds open the possibility that the optimal U.S. CO2 emission reduction could be met entirely by this tactic.'

1006. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 19.
"AT&T, in Basking Ridge, New Jersey, is installing efficiency improvements through the Climate Wise program projected to save the company $50 million each year and offset 154,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide annually by the year 2000."

1007. Leyla Boulton (Staff in FINANCIAL TIMES. Nov. 11. 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/I/97), 6.
"Mr. Michael Jefferson, deputy secretary-general of the World Energy Council, reckons that energy efficiency measures could easily cut carbon dioxide emissions by around 20 to 30 per cent. 'It is not clear.' he says, 'apart from inertia, ignorance. and institutional complacency. what the obstacles are to energy efficiency'."

1008. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOST1NG PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 1.
"Fortunately, the world need not choose between catastrophic climate change and economic growth. A host of new technologies offers the means to simultaneously boost the economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. U.S. businesses, municipalities, and educational institutions are finding that investments in energy efficiency cut power bills and provide a rapid payback. wile reducing carbon dioxide emissions. So while some argue that cutting U.S. carbon dioxide emissions would be a costly drag on the economy, this report shows dozens of examples of how carbon dioxide reductions are often a beneficial side effect of profitable. energy-saving business choices."

1009. Bruce Pasternack {St. V.P.. Booz, Allen & Hamilton, Mgt. Consulting finn) in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8, 95. 176.
"An analysis by Mr. Shinji Fukukawa of KOBE Steel indicates that if energy intensive manufacturing industries, the electric power industry and the fuel performance of automobiles of OECD countries were to improve to the energy efficiency levels of Japan. the world would be able to cut the current CO2 emissions by 20% of today's amounts."

1010.  FINANCIAL TIMES, July 3 I, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/2/97), 16. 
"John Gummer, the UK environment secretary who also played an influential role at the Geneva talks, made a strong play at Geneva for greater energy efficiency and the phasing-out of subsidies to the energy industry:'. Because this can save money rather than cost money. promoting more efficient fuel use is likely to be the easiest way to minimize greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels."

1011. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95,305.
"California is the best example. Various Califomia state regulations enacted in the 1980s have made that state the national leader in fuel conservation. California requires efficiency in commercial appliances. industrial motors, and many other categories. Amory Lovins calculates that if the United States as a whole merely achieved in the 1990s the same rate of fuel efficiency realized under real-world circumstances in California during the 1980s. net U.S. energy consumption would fall by two to three percentage points per year, even as economic production rose."

1012. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,303.
"Rationale environmental decision-making is possible within a context of scientific uncertainty. The ecorealist need only concentrate on those actions that are justified in and of themselves, regardless of what later research might show. In greenhouse matters ample opportunities exist for the most important reform: increased efficiency in the use of fossil fuels. As the economics of the greenhouse will show, reasonable energy efficiency reforms justify themselves, whether global temperatures are going up, down, or sideways."

1013. IPCC WGZ Summary for Policymakers References Report in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95, 711.
"There is a broad consensus in the literature in favor of efficiency improvement, because it is seen as directly beneficial irrespective of any impacts on greenhouse warming and because it has significant scope for negative net cost applications."

1014. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 306.
"Considering that energy is the world's leading pollutant; that energy efficiency saves money; that fossil fuel supplies, while today robust, are nevertheless finite; the sorts of fuel efficiency strictures that would buy greenhouse-effect insurance will soon be seen as a global priority regardless of the thermostat."

1015. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 90.
"Steps to increase energy efficiency will lead to lower energy prices and, consequently, to lower prices for manufactured goods, less dependence on imported oil, reduced health hazards from local air pollution, diminished acid rain emissions, and decreased amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere."

1016. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl.), BREATH-TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl. Report), May, 96, 124.
"Energy efficiency measures offer the opportunity to reduce pollution emissions from sources large and small. For instance, reducing the demand for electricity will reduce generation, and emissions, at power plants. Similarly, insulating a home will reduce the need to burn wood or other fuels for space heating. Likewise, improving fuel economy in motor vehicles will reduce the amount of fuel burned and the resulting emissions. The electricity generation at power plants can be made more efficient through use of emerging technologies that increase conversion rates by 40 percent or more."

1017.  Hazel R. O'Leary (U.S. DOE) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, x.
"Today's energy bill for seven major U.S. materials and process industries is $100 billion annually. Pollution control costs are $50 billion a .year. These dollars can be reprogrammed into more productive uses if we incorporate pollution prevention and energy efficiency into industry at the wellhead, rather than downstream."

1018. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95.66-8.
"Despite tremendous economic growth, progress in reducing such emissions was made even before the first major Clean Air Act was passed, between 1950 and 1970, as industries and power plants became more efficient. Residential coal-burning decreased substantially after 1940; there was also some reduction in the industrial use of coal as a fuel between 1940 and 1990. The use of coal in generating electricity more than doubling between 1970 and 1990, but TSP emissions actually decreased during that period as control equipment was installed."

1019. Frank Kreith (Consulting Engineer) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 16.
"A study by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has shown that by replacing existing electric devices with more efficient ones, the U.S. could cut electricity consumption by over 3 I%."

1020. EXPLAINING CLIMATE CHANGE (World Wildlife Fund Report), Feb., 96, 23.
"There is immediate potential for energy efficiency in industrialized countries that could reduce emissions by a quarter in industry and by a third in transportation without compromising comfort and performance. In transportation valuable design measures including switching to vehicles with light weight construction and low air resistance. Also, changes in transport systems, mobility patterns and lifestyles, use of alternative fuels and changes in land-use policy could make a total reduction in transportation emissions of 40% by 2025, as well as having other benefits, such as reducing local air pollution."

100

1021. Christopher Flavin (Sr. V.P., World Watch last.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1996, 96, 37.
"The shape of the practical low-carbon energy economy that could be achieved in the next few decades has been sketched out in recent studies. Its essence would be high levels of energy efficiency throughout the economy, a decentralized system of power generators whose waste heat would be used by homes and industry, and increased reliance on methane gas to replace oil and coal. This is possible with technologies already on the market---such as gas turbines and electronic light bulbs--or that soon will be, such as fuel cells, flywheels, and rooftop solar cells. To illustrate the potential, in a commercial building that gets its heat from a typical natural gas furnace and its electricity from a coal-fired power plant were retrofitted with efficient windows, lighting, electronic controls, and an internal gas-fired heat-and-power system, the carbon emissions associated with meeting its energy needs could be cut by 80-90 percent--all using off-the-shelf technology."

1022. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95. 349.
"Consider this example from Duke Power, a North Carolina utility. In 1974 the typical Duke residential customer had a 1,000-square-foot dwelling with no air conditioner. no color television. and no frost-free refrigerator. By 1992 the typical Duke Power customer had 1.250 square feet of air-conditioned space, two color televisions, and frost-free fridge--yet was using slightly less electricity than in 1974. This improvement had occurred strictly in response to technology improvements and market logic. without any coordinated efficiency drive."

1023. EXPLAINING CLIMATE CHANGE (World Wildlife Fund Report), Feb., 96, 23.
"Meanwhile, changes in building construction. more efficient lighting and appliances such as refrigerators and air-conditioning systems, could remove a quarter of the projected increase in offices and homes without diminishing services."

1024.  CONSUMER REPORTS. Sept.. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), 38. 
"Experts say existing technology can be pushed further. More efficient industrial furnaces and processing equipment could save as much as 25 and 30 percent of energy in U.S. factories. This could be done through efficiency standards, tax incentives, or low-interest loans. Standards or 'feebates' like those proposed for cars could persuade companies to make or consumers to buy more efficient appliances."

1025. EXPLAINING CLIMATE CHANGE (World Wildlife Fund Report). Feb.. 96. 23.
"Energy could also be generated much more efficiently. Thermal efficiency in the world's power stations currently averages 30%---that is, more than two-thirds of the energy is lost. Thermal efficiency could be increased with new plant to 60%. Combined heat and power systems, which re-use waste beat from power plants, would further improve fuel conversion efficiency."

1026. Lee Goldberg (Energy Efficiency Consultant) in ELECTRONIC DESIGN, Jan. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 108.
"We recently did an air-conditioning retrofit in an office building and cut the power consumption by 97%. and the engineer who did that said he could be better on the next one! When we built the institute 13 years ago. we saved 99% of the space and water heating energy, and 90% of the electricity (a 10-month payback). Today. we can do better than this."

1027. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.). BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 5.
"According to several studies, the annual energy savings that could be attained by U.S. industry over the next two decades ranges from 11 to 27 percent of the demand that would otherwise occur, and potential savings by 2015 may reach as high as 38 percent. These improvements depend, however, on the design and implementation of new policies and programs to stimulate more energy efficiency."

1028. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 5.
"Inefficient industrial energy use is closely related to the generation of industrial waste materials. Industry is responsible for producing more than 544 million metric tons of hazardous wastes and approximately 11.8 billion metric tons of solid wastes each year. Industry spends approximately $45 billion each year to meet emissions control requirements. Minimizing the generation of waste materials, and transforming wastes into feedstocks, could reduce the nation's primary energy requirement by as much as 6 quads per year. Energy efficiency technologies and processes, when installed 'pre-end-of-the-pipe,' can prevent pollution before it occurs, lowering production costs and thereby freeing capital for more productive purposes."

1029. Lee Goldberg (Energy Efficiency Consultant) in ELECTRONIC DESIGN, Jan. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 108.
"You can save about half of industrial motor energy, just from the input shaft to the driven machine. This has a payback of about 16 months if your electricity cost five cents per kilowatt hour. Getting there takes doing seven things that you pay for and an additional 28 benefits you get for free, as byproducts. This alone is enough to save a quarter of all electricity in the country. Lighting retrofits are saving between 70 and 90% of the original power consumption with a payback period of a couple of years. The list goes on ."

1030. EXPLAINING CLIMATE CHANGE (World Wildlife Fund Report), Feb., 96, 23.
"Industrial manufacturers and city authorities could reduce emissions by recycling materials, eliminating solvents. capturing and using methane from landfills etc."

103 I. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 36.
"Much more could be done to improve the energy efficiency of America's buildings, residences, appliances, and equipment. Fifty percent of large businesses that spend at least $100,000 annually on energy bills invest in energy efficiency only when paybacks are 2 years or less. This equivalent to demand better than 50 percent annual returns on financial investments. Energy-efficiency investments simply make good sense: they offer returns superior to those of most financial instruments, and they often improve worker comfort while significantly increasing productivity. Energy-efficient building designs, retrofit investments, and equipment and appliance standards all contribute to greater business competitiveness and economic growth--while preventing carbon dioxide emissions."

1032. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 23.
"Energy decisions made when constructing buildings are long-lasting. The median lifetime for commercial buildings is between 50 and 70 years, far longer than most power plants. The potential for savings is high. A reasonably-attainable 30 percent improvement in U.S. building efficiency would reduce energy bills by $75 billion annually in 15 years."

1033.  The Energy Fndn. (San Francisco, CA), 1995 REPORT, 95, 22. 
'More than one-third of the U.S. energy is used to heat, cool, and light our living and working spaces. If these buildings were built and operated with off-the-shelf, cost-effective, high-efficiency technologies, energy consumption could be cut by 50 to 80 percent. Studies at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory suggest that it costs little more to build an efficient office building than an inefficient one."

1034. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 23.
"The United States could cut building energy consumption by 33 to 50 percent by the year 2015 if it invested in cost-effective, commercially available energy-saving technologies."

1035. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 23.
"Numerous examples demonstrate that energy-efficient building and office design can significantly increase worker productivity. By improving lighting heating, and cooling workers can be made more comfortable and productive. An increase of 1 percent in productivity can provide savings to a company that exceed its entire energy bill."

101

1036. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 23.
"Substantial progress has been made. Energy-efficient building designs, retrofits, equipment, and appliances have stabilized energy intensity in the commercial sector, and have reduced energy intensity in residences." [Emphasis in original]

1037. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 25.
"Energy-efficiency retrofits for existing buildings and residences have attractive economic returns. For example, a three-year payback, which is typical in lighting retrofits, is an internal rate of return of 33 percent--generally superior to the results of financial managers for personal investments. Retrofits typically cut energy use by 50 cents or more per square foot of commercial space, a significant reduction in overhead."

1038. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96. 25.
"Retrofits of existing buildings are a source of efficiency waiting to be mined. Eighty percent of U.S. commercial buildings were built prior to 1979 and contain obsolete energy systems. A full-scale retrofit generally calls for replacing lighting and HVAC system components, improving maintenance procedures, and installing computerized controls. Windows may be either replaced or coated with Iow-.emissivity films, and sensors can be placed to monitor temperature and humidity, with the information fed into microcomputers to control the indoor climate."

1039. Douglas Ogden (Arty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 26.
"If energy-efficient lighting were installed everywhere profitable, America's demand for electricity would drop by more than 10 percent. This would result in annual emission reductions of 1.3 million metric tons of sulfur dioxide, 600,000 metric tons of nitrogen oxides, and 202 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Those reductions would be equivalent to taking 44.5 million cars off the road, and represent 12 percent of all U.S. utility emissions."

1040. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96. 26.
"Lighting accounts for 19 percent of all electricity sold in the United States. Every kilowatt-hour of lighting not used prevents emissions of 5.8 grams of sulfur dioxide, 2.5 grams of nitrogen oxides, and 1.5 pounds of carbon dioxide. The best light bulbs on the market use only a quarter as much energy as conventional incandescent light bulbs and last ten times longer. preventing the burning of up to 400 pounds of coal. and saving consumers a net $35 on their electricity bills over the life of the improved bulb."

1041. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 29.
"University of California at Berkeley. University of California at Berkeley's five-year, $6 million lighting upgrade project renovated the lighting in 60 campus buildings by installing 91,000 high-efficiency ballasts. 18,000 reflectors, and 3,000 occupancy sensors. Electricity saved amounted to 12,116 megawatt-hours each year, at an energy cost savings of $909,000 annually--a 20 percent internal rate of return. Annual carbon dioxide emissions were reduced by 4,156 metric tons, equivalent to taking 915 cars off the road each year." [Emphasis in original]

1042. IPCC Summary for Policy Makers Report in HSE HRGS: SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & PUBLIC TRUST, Nov. 16, 95.391.
"Despite significant differences in views, there is agreement that energy efficiency gains of perhaps 10% to 30% below baseline trends over the next two or three decades can be realized at negative to zero net cost. (Negative net cost means an economic benefit). With longer time horizons, which allow a more complete turnover of capital stocks, and which give R&D and market transformation policies a chance to impact multiple replacement cycles, this potential is much higher."

1043. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 5.
"Controlling energy and waste cuts the operating budget and can have an enormous budget and can have an enormous impact on a company's bottom line. In many cases, the energy savings embodied in new technologies capable of reducing environmental emissions is sufficient to pay for upgrades--regardless of such other benefits as improved product quality or productivity. Energy efficiency should be a fundamental component of all manufacturers' environmental programs--to help them meet today's environmental regulations and tomorrow's more stringent standards."

1044. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, I 0.
"Efficiency improvements are rarely one-shot investments. Continuous improvement in energy efficiency and waste reduction can boost productivity and competitiveness--while empowering employees. It takes people--not just technology--to save energy, expand a business. and improve the environment at the same time."

1045. Frank Kreith (Consulting Engineer) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY. 97, 8.
"According to OTA, building energy use will continue to grow in a business-as-usual scenario (that is, assuming no change in current policy) at a moderate pace, reaching roughly 42 quads by 2015. [n an alternative perspective, assuming that all energy-efficient technologies with a positive net present value to the consumer are implemented, energy use in buildings could actually decrease to about 28 quads by 2015. Some of the most important cost-effective energy conservation technologies are listed in Table 1.1 with their estimated paybacks in years. Although many conservation technologies have a high initial cost, this summary shows that energy saving more than repay the initial outlay in a reasonable time."

1046. Douglas Ogden (Atty. Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96. 7.
"The relatively low industrial energy prices in the United States are considered key competitive advantages in the global marketplace. However, they low prices also mean that U.S. manufacturers may place less importance on energy efficiency than do their competitors in Europe and Japan. This difference is illustrated in the selling prices of many products; one expert estimates that 5 percent of the difference in price between similar Japanese and American products is the result of more efficient energy use in Japanese plants. U.S. industry can use energy efficiency to its competitive advantage."

1047. Christopher Flavin (V.P for Rsrch.. World Watch last.) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 23 I.
"Energy forecasters have had a track record of nearly unblemished failure during the past two decades. Reports by leading institutions in the early 1970s overestimated the amount of nuclear power the world would now be using by a factor of six, while studies in 1980 said oil would cost $1 00/barrel by the early 1990s. Although corporations and governments are now using more powerful computers and have adjusted their assumptions to account for earlier mistakes, they still seem to be looking at the future through a rearview mirror."

1048. Wm. W. Hogan (Prof., Pub. Pol.. Harvard U.) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 105.
"Large modeling or forecasting efforts and their associated analyses are inherently problematic. I argue that despite these problems, energy modeling and analysis efforts conducted since the energy shock of 1973 teach us much about energy policy. The most common and largely accurate criticism of much of formal modeling was summarized by Amory Lovins, a prominent energy analyst who followed a different path: Such models have trouble adapting to a world in which, for example, real electricity prices are rapidly rising rather than slowly falling as they used to."

1049. David Lewis Feldman (Sr. Rsrch. Assoc., U. TN) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96. 16.
"The feasibility of any new device, method, or source of energy will depend, ultimately, on the price of energy. Second, energy forecasting models are still not very good at encompassing rates of technological change and market penetration. In part this is due to the limitations of models. However, it is also due in part to the fact that many of the most relevant energy-use changes in technology are those that have occurred in such esoteric fields as electronics and materials science, whose rates of maturity, market penetration, and usability, as Flavin notes. are poorly understood."

102

1050. Douglas Ogden (Atty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 3.
"Vigorous energy-efficiency improvements could lower consumers' energy bills and reduce the cost of energy services, cut-oil imports, reduce pollutant emissions, create a net increase in jobs, and boost individual incomes." [Emphasis in original]

1051. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch., UK, Open U.). RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 418.
"This is most important because: conservation and efficiency measures are usually more cost-effective than many renewable supply options."

1052. William White (Dep. Sec., Dept. Energy) in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8, 95. 18.
"An integrated Natural Gas Strategic Planning Organization incorporates all research and regulatory efforts with the Gas Research Institute. The organization works with the Gas Research Institute and industry to maximize technology investment programs and to eliminate regulatory barriers inhibiting increased utilization of natural gas. Cooperative research projects exceeding $24 million. on a 50/50 cost-shared basis. have been initiated."

1053. Andy Kydes (Staff, U.S. Dept. Energy) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 188.
"A progression of recent environmental regulations and initiatives--including the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the Energy Policy Act of 1992. and the Climate Change Action Plan--are projected to increase demand for Iow-sulfur coal and natural gas. Coal production increases by an average of 1. 1% a year through 2010, to meet the demand for coal in both domestic and export markets. Growth in natural gas consumption is met by increases in both production and imports, primarily from Canada. U.S. production of natural gas increases at an average annual rate of 0.08% between 1993 and 2010. satisfying more than half the growth in consumption by 2010."

1054. Statement Am. Gas Assn. in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY. Mar. 8. 95. 135.
"Natural gas will continue to play a significant role in the nation's electricity generating needs. Faced with changing demographics. new demand patterns. financial constraints, environmental regulations and licensing delays. the electric utility industry is reconsidering the 'bigger is better' philosophy that guided construction of generating facilities in 1960s and 1970s. The new high-efficiency gas electric generation technologies fit in with the evolving electric utility's strategy that is relying increasingly on incremental additions of smaller gas-fired units. with quicker construction and fewer environmental implications. We believe that over 50 percent of all new non-utility additions could be gas-fueled."

1055. Deborah Shprentz (Staff Nat'l. Resources Defense Council), BREATH-TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Defense Council Report), May, 96. 125-6.
"Due largely to the favorable economics. natural gas-powered plants account for about 60 percent of the new electricity generating capacity to be built in the 1990s, with coal accounting for only 10-15 percent. This contrasts to the current fuel mix. with coal accounting for 40 percent of electricity generating capacity in the U.S. and 55 percent of the fossil fuel capacity. Fuel switching and select use of natural gas can be accomplished at reasonable cost at existing facilities. and can dramatically reduce emissions."

1056. Lawrence Hill (Staff. Oak Ridge Nat'l. Lab) in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 247.
"The energy industries are among the most recent to undergo change. In the natural gas industry, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC's) Order 636 in April 1992 was the culmination of a series of orders designed to restructure that industry. As a result, natural gas pipelines are now required to separate gas sales from transportation, allowing open access to pipelines for both gas producers and users."

1057. Kenneth Costello (Assn. Dir., Nat'l. Regulatory Rsrch. Inst.) in REGULATION, No. I, 96, 53.
"As a final federal regulatory reform, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Order 636 was issued in 1992. The order prohibited pipelines from providing bundled gas service; established a capacity-releasing redesigned pipeline rates on the basis of the straight fixed-variable generally gave transport customers nondiscriminatory fights to the pipeline network. Order 636 will stimulate competition in natural gas industry down the pipeline to the distribution level."

1058. Connie Barlow (Natural Gas Consultant) in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 113.
"Decontrol of gas prices and sales created incentives to add literally tens of thousands of new intake, delivery, and interconnection points on interstate pipelines, intrastate pipelines, and distribution-company mainlines. These and a host of other incremental improvements vastly increased the effective capacity and, above all, the flexibility of the continental gas-transmission grid, which was to facilitate the emergence of open architecture in North American gas markets in the mid-1990s." [Emphasis in original]

1059. Arlon Tussing (Prof., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 5 I.
"Organizational efficiency. Deregulation of wellhead and wholesale gas prices, the end of legal 'dedication' of reserves to specific sales, and the decoupling of gas sales from gas transportation have directly improved efficiency in the use of reserves. These reforms also permitted further efficiency-enhancing changes in the structure and behavior of gas markets--like the replacement of long-term sales at fixed or formula prices by short-term and spot sales at prices responsive to real-time market conditions."

1060. Kenneth Costello (Assn. Dir., Nat'l. Regulatory Rsrch. lnst.) in REGULATION, No. I, 96, 53-4.
"By most indications, performance in the natural gas industry has improved dramatically over the past 10 years or so. From 1984 to 1993 the wellhead price declined by 24 percent. Natural gas prices have fallen from their mid-1980s levels to the point where retail gas consumers cumulatively saved as much as $100 billion. During the period 1984 to 1993 the average retail price of natural gas declined by 16 percent."

1061. ENERGY REPORT, Dec. 2, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), I.
"The study, compiled by the EPA and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) in cooperation with industry, found some 1.4% of natural gas produced annually, or about 314 billion of, escapes into the atmosphere. While this figure is several times larger than some earlier estimates, the contribution gas industry methane makes to global climate change is more than counterbalanced by the fact methane combustion generates far less carbon dioxide than competing fossil fuels."

1062. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96. 175.
"One feature that makes gas particularly attractive as a fuel is the low ration of carbon per Btu in gas compared with coal or oil. For people worried about the threat of global warming, decreasing the output of carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, is a decided advantage (unless, of course, the pipes leak too much--methane is also a greenhouse gas)."

1063. lnt'l. Project Sustainable Energy Rprt., CA in ENERGY, Feb., 95, 12.
"Fortunately, significant carbon reductions can be realized in fossil-fired power generation itself: by switching power plants from carbon-intensive coal or oil to less carbon-intensive gas, and by introducing power plants with higher fuel conversion efficiencies."

1064.  Int'l. Project Sustainable Energy Rprt., CA in ENERGY, Feb., 95, 12. 
"The technologies of choice for the transition to a low-carbon future are gas-fired cogeneration plants and gas-fired central stations based on advanced gas turbines. Their carbon burdens (carbon emissions per kWh of electricity) are some two-thirds to three-quarters lower than those of an existing coal-fired central station. Coal-fired cogeneration plants and more efficient 'clean coal' central stations offer only a distant second-best alternative."

103

1065. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report: GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 24.
"The carbon content of estimated total global reserves of oil and gas is moderate relative to the carbon carrying capacity of the atmosphere, in the sense that even an exhaustion of these reserves by the middle of the next century is compatible with what is currently considered a low-risk increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, especially if oils and gas are used aggressively to replace coal."

1066. Org. for Eco. Co-operation & Devel. Report, GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS & POLICY RESPONSES, 95, 23.
"As most anthropogenic carbon emissions are related to combustion of fossil fuels, a shift to carbon-low or carbon-free fuel sources is an effective measure to curtail emissions. An important option within this category is substitution among fossil fuels: oil has a lower carbon content than coal, and gas has an even lower carbon-content."

t067. Arlon Tussing (Prof., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 52-3.
"Efforts to limit the potential effects from global warming favor natural gas over other conventional fossil fuels because of the substantialIv lower volumes of CO2 emitted per unit of useful energy when natural gas is burned, as compared with any other fossil fuel."

1068. Hans Rasmusen (Pres., Int'l. Gas Union) in OIL GAS EUROPEAN MAGAZINE, Nov., 96. 1.
"Natural gas is an environmentally benign fuel. Not only does natural gas emit only minute amounts of SO2, but the amount of CO2 per unit of useful energy is 20% to 45% lower that of other fossil fuels, and the amount of NOx is minimized at lower costs that for other fuels."

1069. Statement Am. Gas Assn. in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8, 95, 134.
"The direct use of natural gas in end-use applications provides additional environmental benefits. For example natural gas space heating and appliance use produce only 15 to 20 percent of the total air emissions. and less than one percent of both the total water pollutants and noncombustible solid wastes. that result from comparable electric applications. According to the EPA, the use of natural gas in space water heating and cooking could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 68 percent compared to electricity. In conventional boilers. natural gas can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 50 to 70 percent."

1070. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl.), BREATH-TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Defense Cncl. Report), May, 96. 125.
"Gas fired, combined cycle power plants can virtually eliminate sulfur dioxide emissions, while reducing NOx emissions by 80 percent. compared to a conventional controlled coal-fired plant. A new 500 Megawatt combined cycle power plant burning natural gas emits an estimated 7 tons per year sulfur dioxide and 971 tons nitrogen oxides. compared to 8.043 tons of sulfur dioxide and 5,056 tons of nitrogen oxide emitted by a comparable new, controlled coal-fired plant."

1071. Arlon Tussing (Prof, Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 5.
"Gas holds an additional advantage because it is the cleanest burning of all fossil fuels. This advantage translates into cheaper plant maintenance and the avoided costs of pollution-abatement gear."

1072. Deborah Shprentz (Staff, Nat'l. Resources Delimse Cncl.), BREATH-TAKING (Nat'l. Resources Detimse Cncl. Report), May, 96. 124.
"There are a number of cost-effective measures available to accomplish significant reductions in emissions of fine particles and their precursors. These range from improvements in energy efficiency, to measures to encourage fuel switching from coal or oil to natural gas. to the upgrading of emissions control technologies."

1073. Statement Am. Gas Assn. in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8, 95, 134.
"The primary precursors of acid rain are believed to be sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide. Nearly three-fourths of the approximately 19 million tons of sulfur dioxide and one-third of the approximately 17.5 million tons of nitrogen oxide are attributable to combustion of coal at large powerplants. The use of natural gas in powerplants provides utilities with extremely cost-effective methods of lowering emissions of these acid rain precursors and in solving the nation's acid rain problem."

1074. Arlon Tussing (Prof., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 47.
"Combustion of gas is relatively free of soot, carbon monoxide, and the nitrogen oxides associated with other fossil fuels. Sulfur-dioxide emissions are almost nonexistent, and substitution of gas for high-sulfur coal and fuel oil is, therefore, a direct remedy for North America's acid rain ills."

1075. Bernd Gansen (Staff, Dipl. Inc., Germany) in OIL GAS EUROPEAN MAGAZINE, Mar., 96, 23.
Methane does not contribute to local pollutant levels and is not toxic; it is therefore exclusively regarded as a greenhouse gas. Methane is the main constituent of hydrocarbon emissions from natural gas vehicles. The inactivity of the total hydrocarbons emitted by natural gas vehicles, the critical factor with regard to local environmental impacts, is approx. 80 to 90% lower than that of the hydrocarbons contained in the exhaust of gasoline and diesel vehicles. Because of this difference, the US and Canada have exclusively limited non-methane hydrocarbon emissions."

1076. lnt'l. Energy Outlook 1995 (U.S. Dept. Energy) in WASH. QRTLY., Autumn, 96, 78.
"In contrast to oil, the natural gas share of total world energy consumption is expected to rise from 21 to 23 percent between 1990 and 2010. Abundant reserves and concerns about environmental protection are expected to increase the importance of natural gas as an energy source. Among the fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), worldwide consumption of natural gas is projected to grow the fastest, at 2 percent per year though 2010."

1077. Arlon Tussing (Prof.. Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 50.
"A resource that is physically 'finite' is seldom 'fixed' in economic size. Only in the last 20 years. for example, have geologists come to embrace coal-seam methane, superpressurized deep-gas reservoirs. and sediments found below overthrust zones as elements of the natural gas resource base. Looking forward, moreover, the total volume of methane contained in the earth's crust is thousands of times bigger than the U.S. Geological Survey's latest estimate of the ultimately recoverable 'natural gas" resource. We have no way of knowing today how big the 'remaining' share of the ultimately recoverable resource will be in 20 years, but it will almost certainly be greater than it is now."

1078. Statement Am. Gas Assn. in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY. Mar. 8. 95, 135.
"Total proved reserves at year-end 1993 were 162.4 Tcf. DOE's landmark study on natural gas supplies in 1988, entitled 'An Assessment of the Natural Gas Resource Base of the United States' focused solely on natural gas resources that are domestically available and can be recovered with current technology. The study found that. in the lower 48 states alone, natural gas reserves and resources total 1,059 Tcf These supply figures do not include vast natural gas resources in Alaska (estimated by DOE at 129 Tcf), Canada (79.23 Tcf remaining reserves as of December 31, 1993) and Mexico."

1079. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 175-6.
"A few authorities on mineral resources have suggested that the quantity of natural gas accessible to deep drilling in the United States will dwarf other fuel resources. Foremost exponents of this view include Vincent McKelvey, former director of the United States Geological Survey, and Thomas Gold of Cornell University. The explanation offered by the latter is that natural gas (methane) is not just a fossil fuel. Some of it is part of the original material of the earth, and much of this is still trapped within the earth waiting to be tapped by deep drilling."

1080. Arlon Tussing (Prof., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 48.
"The notion that gas was a premium and a fast-dwindling fuel suggested that its price was doomed to soar ever upward and offer economic as well as environmental and strategic justification for investing in ever more costly natural and un-natural supplements and substitutes. Because this belief was virtually unchallenged, it gave rise to a score of costly supplemental-gas megaprojects in the mid-1970s and then, after the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 permitted wellhead prices to leap upward, to a frenzy of drilling for super-deep and other super-costly conventional gas reserves. The premise was, nevertheless, fundamentally wrong. As prices rose, conventional gas sources turned out to be far from terminal depletion, while consumers began to conserve to an extent that surprised the experts and to flee to cheaper fuels." [Emphasis in original]

104

1081. Arlon Tussing (Prof., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 49-50.
"Briefly, gas experts had learned the lesson of the 1960s and 1970s too well, namely, that the 'easy' finds were gone and that replacement and incremental supply would be more costly to develop. The most 'logical' and deceptively simple form of this paradigm began with the proposition that the gas industry naturally searches first for the easiest deposits and first develops the cheapest finds. An equally logical and deceptively simple inference from this premise is that supply necessarily becomes more costly over time, and that prices must therefore rise. The historical evidence, however, is that this intuitive and logical paradigm has almost never faithfully represented the sequence in which so-called 'exhaustible' resources are actually found and extracted. In retrospect. it is amazing that the natural gas industry and it planners stayed stubbornly wedded to a basic theory whose results turned out to be spectacularly wrong, in large and in detail, year after year after year."

1082. Arlon Tussing (Prof., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 35.
"At the end of 1992, the National Petroleum Council--an industry group that conducts studies at the request of the U.S. government--estimated the gas resource of the U.S. Lower 48 at 1,295 Tcf The figure included 160 Tcf of conventional reserves and probable future additions. Other projected additions to conventional reserves include 203 Tcf from reserves appreciation: extensions, revisions, and corrections of estimates of reserves from existing fields and 413 Tcf from fields yet to be discovered. The remainder of the resource figure came from unconventional resources: coalbed methane. 98 Tcf; shales, 57 Tcf; tight sands, 349 Tcf; and others. 15 Tcf. The total is. nevertheless. two or three orders of magnitude less than the total methane believed to reside in all of the geological environments of the earth's crust." [Emphasis in original]

1083. Arlon Tussing (Prof, Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL. GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 39-40.
"Proved reserves of natural gas are actually only a small fraction of the methane residing in the earth's crust. however. and are thus a very imprecise measure of the underlying resource. A low or falling reserve-to-production (R/P) ratio (or life index of production) in sometimes wrongly interpreted to predict an impending shortage of gas. Gas reserves are not a finite divine endowment, however, but are capital assets created or renewed through expenditures on exploration and development, so that it is wasteful to invest deliberately in a bigger inventory than is needed to support current production with a reasonable degree of reliability."

1084. Arlon Tussing {Pro/:, Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 51.
" Technical progress in exploration and production. The last decade witnessed a virtual revolution in finding and extraction technology. including, for example, drill-bit performance (achieved with introduction or' polycrystalline diamond compact drill bits), seismic sensing (achieved with higher energy frequency detection, geophone improvements, and computer processing breakthroughs with digital technologies), three-dimensional mapping (again, owing to greater computing capabilities). and horizontal drilling (resulting from advancements in steerable motor assemblies. measurement-while-drilling tools, and variable speed motors and drives}. There are many reasons to believe that such technological upheaval is far from an end; it will more likely accelerate."

1085. Hans Rasmusen (Pres., Int'l. Gas Union) in OIL GAS EUROPEAN MAGAZINE, Nov.. 96, 1.
"Natural gas production, transportation and application technology is developing rapidly, thus permitting more efficient and economic energy supply solutions. This is in particular the case with natural gas based combined cycle power production, where new projects can be established at lower costs, at shorter time and with lower emissions to the environment. than other power projects."

1086. Nelson Hay (Staff, Am. Gas Assn.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 88.
"In this country today, with gas prices that you can tie down under long-term contract, it is in many cases, even for coal-fired power plants. the cheapest way to comply with the Clean Air Act is to tear the plant to the ground and build a new gas-fired power plant on the same site. That's not true in every case, but it's true in quite a few cases."

1087. lnt'l. Project Sustainable Energy Rprt, CA in ENERGY, Feb., 95, 13.
"Under DSMFIRP policies coupled with either mild or strong carbon constraints (low coal prices and low gas prices), gas-fired industrial cogeneration plants and combined heat and power (CHP) district heating plants will typically produce electricity at a 15-20% saving relation to conventional pulverized coal stations. When environmental extemalities are included, savings rise to 20-26%. Under the same policy regime, gas-fired cogeneration is also 7-15% less expensive than electricity from gas-fired combined-cycle central stations."

1088.  Int'l. Project Sustainable Energy Rprt, CA in ENERGY, Feb., 95, 14. 
"The results of this analysis show a marked discrepancy between the societal cost rankings of fossil central station, fossil cogeneration, and nuclear resource options, and the contributions these options have made in ED and OECD member government and utility resource plans to date. From a least-cost perspective, cogeneration plants and high-efficiency gas-fired central stations should be prominent. Instead, coal-fired central stations are dominant, and nuclear reactors continue to be the preferred option in France. This discrepancy points to the need for various policy interventions in the electricity sector and the gas industry if economic efficiency is to be increase. Chief among them are changes in the structure and regulation of the electricity industry and power markets, coupled with changes in the structure and regulation of the gas supply industry and gas markets."

1089.  Int'l. Project Sustainable Energy Rprt. CA in ENERGY, Feb., 95. 12. 
This analysis shows that at today's fuel prices, gas-fired plants are economically more attractive than coal plants. This would suggest that economics alone could lead to a substantial reduction in the carbon emissions of power plants."

1090. Arlon Tussing (Prof., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 47.
"Technological developments of the last generation have made the conversion costs from gas to electricity lower than for any other primary energy source. The prevailing gas-to-electricity conversion technology--the combustion turbine or CT--is more reliable, smaller in scale, and less intrusive in almost every way than the coal- and nuclear-powered steam plants that preceded it. Finally, natural gas produced in North America displaces Middle Eastern oil imports at the margin and thus, all other things being equal, reduces the regional payments deficit, while gas supplies from anywhere on the continent are virtually immune from risk of political or military interruption."

1091. Arlon Tussing (Pro/'., Eco., U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 48-9.
"Figure 1-21 compares a typical series of price forecasts (the upward trending lines) from the United States Department of Energy with actual average prices (the heavy line at the bottom) in each year from 1978 to 1993. At least the pattern of predictions was consistent. Year after year, with only a handful of exceptions. almost every such forecasting 'authority' predicted a sharp imminent upturn in natural gas prices, followed by a permanent upward-sloping trend; more than a decade of declining or stable prices was not enough to extinguish this vision."

1092. Kenneth Lay (CEO, Enron Corp.) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE, May 15, 96, 43.
"1995 natural gas prices, adjusted for inflation, have fallen by an average of 40 percent over the last eleven years. Residential prices have dropped by 28 percent; industrial and electric generation consumers have seen prices drop by 50 percent."

1093. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 501.
"The energy analyst Christopher Flavin of the Worldwatch Institute estimates new installed nuclear capacity today costs 12 cents per kilowatt hour versus six to eight cents for wind power and six cents for natural gas power."

1094.  Int'l. Project Sustainable Energy Rprt, CA in ENERGY. Feb.. 95, 13. 
"Electricity generating options from renewable energy sources occupy an intermediate position. Some cost more than Fossil electricity, some are cheaper than conventional coal and gas central stations, but more expensive than cogeneration plants or advanced gas plants. Advanced wind turbines in the best locations promise lower electricity costs than even the best gas-fired plants."

105

1095. ENERGY REPORT, Dec. 2, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), 1.
"The industry is also wrapping up a multi-million dollar study that indicates the environmental benefits associated with burning-gas far outweigh the negative contribution of escaping methane. This should bolster industry arguments that natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel and should be recognized as such by the federal government."

1096.  ENERGY REPORT, Dec. 2, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 1. 
"Industry officials pointed to a pending multi-million dollar study of the natural gas industry that indicates the environmental benefits associated with burning gas far outweigh the negative contribution from escaping methane. The findings will bolster industry arguments gas is the cleanest fossil fuel and should be recognized as such by the federal government."

1097.  ENERGY REPORT, Dec. 2, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), I. 
"Sweeping global climate change initiatives, including possible Btu or carbon taxes, hinted at in a first Clinton administration now are perceived as a renewed threat within the energy industry with President Clinton's re-election. To help diminish the possibly 'draconian' measures to cut methane and other greenhouse gas emissions to meet binding targets as proposed this year by the State Dept. at a global climate conference, natural gas companies are volunteering to work with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on ways to cost-effectively cut methane emissions."

1098. Bruce Pasternack (Sr. V.P., Booz, Allen & Hamilton. Mgt. Consulting firm) in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8, 95, 175-6.
"Renewable energy is still an unfilled promise; natural gas has tremendous advantages; oil will see an inevitable change in the composition and level of its use; coal has the greatest uncertainty; and nuclear may be twenty years too late to be near-term environmental beneficiary."

1099. Arlon Tussing (Prof'., Eco.. U. AK) et al. in THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, 95, 11
"Natural gas is in relentless price competition with other fuels and energy forms in practically all of its actual and potential uses. A substantial share of existing fuel consuming equipment, mostly in industry and for electrical generation, has established dual- or multi-fuel capacity."

1100. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly). A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 345.
"Christopher Flavin, an energy analyst at the Worldwatch Institute. calls natural gas 'the perfect fuel.' He notes that building more natural gas systems will be a long-term bargain because such infrastructure could be convened to hydrogen, a zero-emission fuel if hydrogen becomes practical in the next century."

1101.  EUROPEAN REPORT, Aug. 1, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1. 
"Foratom claims that nuclear power is the only form of energy capable of meeting international objectives for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2: 'Even with a massive effort to develop alternative sources of energy, renewables cannot replace a substantial portion of the base load generation capacity produced by fossil fuels in time to help stop their harmful effects of our environment', argues Foratom, adding that the only realistic economic solution is to support continued expansion of EU nuclear and hydro-electric capacity."

1102. Robert Evans (Staff), REUTER EUROPEAN COMMUNITY REPORT. July 16, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/3/97), I.
"'Nuclear power and the renewables are the only energy sources which do not produce carbon dioxide.' the forum said in a letter to Gummer made available in Geneva."

1103. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"However, the electric utility and nuclear industries are pursuing many areas of research related to improving the safety and performance of U.S. nuclear power plants and the Department will continue to work with industry to assure the compatibility of the Federal and industrial research efforts."

1104. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"In FY 1998, the Department proposes to focus its efforts on addressing technology issues associated with current nuclear power plants. The 109 nuclear power plants in the U.S. produce more than 22 percent of the Nation's electricity and represent an investment of over $200 billion--a quarter of all electric utility investments in this country."

1105. Ronald Larson (Consultant, Solar Energy Policy) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 18.
"The U.S. government support for research, development, and commercialization of solar energy was not unprecedented. Nuclear energy technology was initiated, developed, and supported by the government. Moreover, the government took many steps beyond research and development in an effort to encourage commercialization of nuclear energy, most notably, undertaking fuel preparation, sponsoring demonstration projects. enacting liability limitations, establishing the Nuclear Regulatory and Atomic Energy Commissions, setting standards, and providing for waste disposal. One estimate is that nuclear energy had received $32 billion (1985 dollars) in incentives between 1950 and 1977, the Alliance to Save Energy estimated that there was almost $11 billion in subsidies for the nuclear industry in 1989 alone."

1106. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"The Nuclear Energy Security R&D program is being proposed to help the United States maximize its investment in our existing 109 nuclear power plants. These plants contribute over one-fifth of the Nation's electricity and provide a long-term source of baseload power without emitting harmful air pollutants."

1107. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof.. Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 282.
"While most environmentalists argue that energy conservation and rapid development of renewable energy sources are better solutions to the Greenhouse problem, many politicians, scientists, economists are giving nuclear power a hard second look. Eight pounds of enriched uranium can produce the energy equivalent of 6,000 tons of oil or 8.000 tons of coal. A large reactor can generated enough power for 1.5 million households. Nuclear technology can be beguiling in an era of climate warming consciousness if its technological risks can be reduced and a more congenial political climate created for the nuclear option. The Nuclear Dream is not yet dead."

1108. GLOBAL WARMING NETWORK ONLINE TODAY, Sept. 11. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), I.
"Nuclear energy proponents are hoping to spin concern about potential global warming to their advantage, touting the environmental benefits of nuclear power over energy produced by the burning of fossil fuels. Despite a less than favorable image, the industry notes that the global demand for electricity is expected to double within the next 50 years, and sees itself as well-positioned for growth. 'I would argue that this gap can only be filled by either additional fossil-fired generation or nuclear,' said British Nuclear Fuels Ltd. chief executive John Taylor at a Uranium Institute conference in London last week."

1109. William Peirce (Prof. Eco., Case Western Reserve U.). ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 274.
"Some analysts have become concerned about the possibility that missions of carbon dioxide will produce major changes in climate. This prospect would tip the balance toward nuclear power because burning coal produces carbon dioxide, whereas the nuclear plant emits none."

1110. Tom Ashby (Staff) in REUTER EUROPEAN BUS. REPORT, Sept. 6, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1.
"'Global warming is now becoming the world's number one environmental issue, and that is an opportunity for the nuclear industry,' Taylor said."

1111. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"As an example, the Department is interested in reducing spent fuel generation because the future cost of handling, storing, and disposing of commercial spent fuel is a govemmental responsibility. Reducing spent fuel also benefits U.S. environmental and nonproliferation objectives and will increase safety by requiring that less spent fuel be transported across the country to a repository."

1112. Chauncey Starr (Pres., Electric Power Rsrch. lnst.), NUCLEAR NEWS, Mar., 97 (Online, Nexis, 3/4/97), 58.
"Let's consider first the near-term situation in the United States. In the almost half-century since their origination, nuclear reactors now provide about a fifth of our electricity needs."

106

1113. Background Brief in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95, 105.
"Nuclear energy today provides more than 20 percent of the electricity generated in the United States, second only to coal as a source of electric power."

1114. Nat'l. Academics Policy Advisory Group (England) Report, ENERGY & THE ENVIR. IN THE 21ST CENT., July, 95, 56-7.
"But the absence of atmospheric pollution is a more critical benefit. Nuclear reactors emit no acid gases and no CO2 from the nuclear fuel the use of electricity and oil fur mining and transport is only a minor source of CO2 from the nuclear fuel cycle."

1115. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"Since 1973, the use of nuclear energy has reduced carbon emissions by nearly 1,700 million metric tons--90 percent of all the carbon emissions avoided by the U.S. energy sector. Nuclear Energy has also resulted in reduced emissions of nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide."

1116. EUROPEAN REPORT, Aug. l, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/3/97). 1.
"The nuclear industry can claim credit for reducing the world's carbon dioxide emissions by 10% in 1995. according to a statement released on July 28 by Foratom (the Forum Atomique European). The Forum supports Member States in their endorsement of the report by the lntergovemmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which lays responsibility for global warming firmly on the shoulders of mankind."

1117. Teresa Hansen (Assoc. Ed.), ELECTRIC LIGHT & POWER. Nov.. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 28.
"NEI claims that without its nuclear power plants, the U.S.'s CO2 emissions in 1993 from electricity production alone would have been 30 percent higher --the equivalent of putting an additional 94 million cars on the road. Twelve OECD countries. including the United States, reduced per capita CO2 emissions between 1973 and 1990. Nine of these countries relied increasingly on nuclear energy over the same period. According to NEI, France, which generates about 75 percent of its electricity from nuclear energy, has reduced CO2 levels significantly. In 1973. before France launched a huge expansion of its nuclear energy program. average emissions of carbon were 2.6 metric tons per person. Today. the rate is 1.56 metric tons per person, about half of the OECD average."

1118. EUROPEAN REPORT. Aug. 1.96 (Online. Nexis. 4/3/97). 1.
"It highlights the example of France where. since the introduction of the country's nuclear program, carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions have fallen by 60%, and sulphur dioxide emissions by 77%."

1119. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"Without nuclear power, carbon dioxide emissions in the United States as result of electricity production would be approximately 30 percent higher --the equivalent of an additional 94 million cars on the Nation's roads."

1120. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. I, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"The substitution of nuclear for fossil-fueled plants has reduced present CO2 atmospheric emissions by more than 130 million metric tons of carbon per year, roughly 10 per cent of total U.S. CO2 production."

1121. GLOBAL WARMING NETWORK ONLINE TODAY. Oct. 31.96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), I.
"Greenhouse gas emissions, a contributing factor to global warming. could decrease with the expanded use of nuclear power. said Hans Blix. director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (lAEA) in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly this week. According to Blix, nuclear power and renewable sources produce the least amount of greenhouse gases compared with coal, oil, gas, and other fossil fuels. 'There should now be a general awareness among governments that an expanded use of nuclear power and of renewable sources of energy together with conservation measures could significantly help to restrain greenhouse gas emissions,' said Blix."

1122. Bennett Johnston (U.S. Rep., LA), ENVIR. INFO. NETWORKS, Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), I.
"During one of his last Senate Energy Committee hearings before he retires. Senator Bennett Johnston (D-LA) touted the benefits of nuclear energy to help combat the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions."

1123. Bennett Johnston (U.S. Rep., LA), ENVIR. INFO. NETWORKS, Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1.
"Use of nuclear energy, in lieu of fossil fuels, is credited with preventing the release of 146 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions last year. Nuclear energy could help the Clinton administration meet its goal of cutting greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000, according to Jones."

1124.  UNIVERSAL NEWS SVCS., Oct. 9, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1. 
"Roger Hayes, director general of the British Nuclear Industry Forum, addressing the North West Fuel Luncheon Club at Old Trafford, said that growing demand for energy worldwide would lead to a doubling of carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2020--damaging the environment and thus highlighting the case for nuclear power. 'The bulk of that demand will be met by burning fossil fuels, causing a rapid depletion in oil and gas reserves. Nuclear power does not produce the harmful gases that contribute to global warming."

1125. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 235.
"The strongest case for retaining a nuclear power industry derives from the possible environmental consequences of the other sources. In particular, if global warming turns out to be a serious problem. it may be important to keep the nuclear option open for the day when the coal requirements of an expanding electric utility industry begin to impose excessive environmental costs."

1126. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"As we and other Nations of the world continue to consider the consequences of carbon dioxide emissions on the environment, the availability of safe, economic nuclear power pants here and abroad will prove to be a critical asset."

1127. Teresa Hansen (Assoc. Ed.), ELECTRIC LIGHT & POWER. Nov., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 28.
"Nuclear power is also responsible for one of the largest worldwide reductions in CO2 emissions. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in 1993 (the most recent data available), the world's atmosphere was spared 455 million metric tons of carbon thanks to the nuclear power industry."

1128.  CONSUMER REPORTS, Nov., 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/3/97), 4. 
"The September report on global warming didn't emphasize one major solution to the growing carbon-dioxide problem: The great potential for using nuclear power to replace fossil fuels. France, one of the largest users of nuclear power, produces only about one-third as much carbon dioxide per person as the U .S. does. Nuclear power can also be used to make electricity or hydrogen to run automobiles, adding no carbon dioxide to the air."

1129. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. 1,96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"This is the wrong time for the nation or the world to ignore nuclear power. Demand for energy will grow and our options are limited. Ironically, environmentalists, who have opposed nuclear power since the 1970s, should have the strongest rationale for promoting nuclear energy. Like almost all large endeavors, nuclear power has its problems and its risks. But the problems of nuclear power do not look so bad when compared with the air pollution, global warming, and supply limitations associated with fossil fuels. Besides, the major drawbacks of nuclear power from cost to waste disposal are due more to institutional impediments than to technological difficulties. Considering the growth in energy demand and the risks associated with other energy sources, the benefit-risk ratio for nuclear power is very attractive. Indeed, the welfare of our future generations and the environment may depend upon maintaining the viability of nuclear power."

1130. Elizabeth Buie (Envir. Correspondent) in THE HERALD (GLASGOW), Oct. 23, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 7.
"Dr. Robin Jeffrey, chairman and chief executive of Scottish Nuclear, said: 'While all methods of generating electricity impact on the environment, nuclear power has the advantage over fossil-fueled power that it produces only negligible amounts of carbon dioxide--the main greenhouse gas thought to contribute to global warming--and sulphur dioxide and oxides to nitrogen, which cause acid rain."'

107

113 I. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"Nevertheless, the United States still needs to reduce carbon production by an additional 10 percent to reach its goal of returning to the 1990 production level. In addition, replacing fossil-fuel plants with nuclear power has reduced nitrogen oxide emissions to the air by over two million tons annually, meeting the goal set by the Clean Air Act for the year 2000, and has reduced sulfur dioxide emissions by almost 5 million tons per year, half the goal for 2000. Both nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide are harmful to human health and the environment."

1132. Benjamin Stevenson (Prof Physics. NJ Inst. of Technology) in ASBURY PARK PRESS, June 24, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), AI I.
"As fossil fuel use grows around the world. nuclear energy technology development will help protect Americans from the looming environmental consequences."

1133. Barclay Jones (Prof., Nuc. Engineering, U. IL) in Wl STATE JRNL.. July 21, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/3/97), 2H.
"In this uncertain environment, it would be irresponsible not to plan for a future that includes nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is prudent, strategic insurance against any number of environmental and economic shock."

1134.  UNIVERSAL NEWS SVCS., Oct. 9, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/3/97). 1. 
"Replacing nuclear's contribution to the world electricity supply with gas would increase CO2 emissions by 950 million tons a year. warned Mr. Hayes. Replacing it with coal would mean extra emissions of 1.9 billion tons a year. He continued. 'Problems facing society in the next century will be increased world population, leading to increased energy consumption, resource constraints. and more serious global environmental problems. I am convinced that to solve these problems. nuclear power as a generator of electricity will have an important role to play in the twenty-first century."

1135. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES. Nov. I, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/3/97). 52.
"And while anti-nuclear activists continue to quibble about the possibility of some future hazard. we continue to pollute the air with fossil-fuel emissions that cause tens of thousands of premature deaths each year in the United States; and produce greenhouse gases that could lead to global climate change with potentially disastrous consequences."

1136. Benjamin Stevenson (Prof Physics, NJ lnst. of Technology) in ASBURY PARK PRESS, June 24.96 (Online. Nexis, 4/3/97), All.
"We will need the advanced reactors--which are standardized and more efficient than nuclear plants now operating--to replace aging coal-fired plants. Coal accounts for 55 percent of the nation's electricity generating capacity. The older the coal plant, the dirtier it is likely to be. Twelve utilities are participating in this cooperative reactor program. considering it strategic insurance against the environmental and economic consequences of excessive dependence on fossil fuels."

1137. Benjamin Stevenson (Prof. Physics, NJ Inst. of Technology) in ASBURY PARK PRESS. June 24, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), A11.
"The prospect of jettisoning nuclear power--not to mention a modest design program for next-generation plants--should be something of an embarrassment to NRDC and its soulmates at Greenpeace. Without the continued development of clean nuclear energy, this nation's environmental gains will be overwhelmed by growing pollution not only in the United States but elsewhere in the world."

1138. Bernard Weinstein (Staff) in AUSTIN AM. STATESMAN, Oct. 26. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), A15.
"In addition to its competitive production costs, nuclear power possesses other imprint advantages. Of all the way to generate electricity, nuclear is the most environmentally benign because there are no greenhouse gases or particulates released into the air. Yes, hydropower and other renewable energy sources can make the same claims, but the construction of dams and lakes often does serious damage to natural as well as human habitats. And solar power is more pipe dream than reality. By satisfying 40 percent of the increase in electricity demand since 1973, nuclear plants substituted for vast amounts of carbon-emitting fossil fuels: 3.2 billion tons of coal, 11.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. or 2.2 billion barrels of oil.'

1139. Teresa Hartsen (Assoc. Ed.), ELECTRIC LIGHT & POWER, Nov., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 28.
"Nuclear power plants generate electricity in 31 countries and provide 17 percent of the world's electricity. Seventeen countries relied on nuclear power for at least a quarter of their total energy needs in 1995."

1140. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"However, whether or not new plants are built in the United States, the Nation will remain dependent on nuclear energy for a significant portion of our electric energy for decades to come. Today, 109 nuclear power plants provide about 22 percent of U .S. electricity needs and represent an investment by ratepayers of about $200 billion. As a group, these plants can provide the Nation with an efficient, reliable source of baseload electric power for many years to come. These plants also have the unique quality that they do not emit harmful air pollutants, particularly those pollutants associated with global climate change."

1141. Tom Ashby (Staff) in REUTER EUROPEAN BUS. REPORT. Sept. 6, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1.
"Ivan Vera, administrator of the OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency, said if the world gets serious about reducing the gases responsible for global warming, like carbon dioxide, nuclear power could be extended to supply 45 percent of world electricity demand, from 17 percent currently."

1142. Teny Lash (Dir.. Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), I.
"In addition, nuclear power plants are able to operate. during extreme weather conditions, a very important capability. For example, nuclear plants, which provide more than 50 percent of the electricity in some states, continued operating during the major flooding in the Midwest in 1993 while fossil fuel plants' operations were affected by disruptions in fuel supply deliveries. Nuclear powerplants also proved to be a reliable source of energy during the blizzard conditions many northeastern states experienced last winter."

1143. William Peirce (Prof, Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 230.
"For any particular reactor, the probability of worst weather combined with worst reactor accident is something in the order of 1 in 10 million each year of operation. Even if every worst-case reactor accident were to cause 100,000 deaths. they expected loss of life would be 1 per plant-year of operation (compared with a range of 0.8-14 for coal), but the newspaper headline was a stark 'Nuke Accident Could Kill 100,000."

1144. William Peirce (Prof., Eco.. Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 229-30.
"Most attention has been focused on an average number of fatalities per reactor-year and a description of the worst possible accident. The worst-case release of radioactivity in the Rasmussen Report was expected 5 times in 1 million reactor-years. The probability of the worst weather pattern coinciding with the worst release was 1 in 1.000, giving a probability of '5 in 1 billion reactor-years for the worst exposure. This would be expected to cause 48,000 cases of cancer eventually. Thus the fatalities would amount to 0.0002 per reactor-year from the worst-case accident."

1145. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 228.
"The nuclear power industry on a year-by-year basis during routine operations does far less damage to people and other parts of the environment than do other possible sources of new power. But what about the non-routine? What about the big accident? The industry should have conducted itself with such efficiency and precision that the public would never even have asked the question. It did not, however, and now must face the consequences o fever-increasing regulation by bureaucrats so scared of being blamed for a disaster that they cannot depart from procedure in the interest of reason."

1146. William Peirce (Prof.. Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 226.
"Nevertheless, even if the toll from black lung and air pollution can be eliminated, just the general safety problems of coal exceed the most likely level of all nuclear fatalities. These general safety problems consist mainly of accidents between automobiles and the trains hauling coal. They are scarcely likely to be eliminated by new knowledge or regulations, although a large enough investment in underpasses could reduce them."

108

1047. William Peirce (Prof, Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 225-6.
"The main point is the comparison between coal and nuclear power. The range for coal is 3.3-107 deaths to produce 6.75 billion kWh of electricity, the amount generated in a 1,000 MW plant that has a capacity factor of 75 percent for a year. The range for nuclear power is 0. 17- I death to produce the same amount of electricity. Even if we take the high end of the range fur nuclear and the low end for coal, nuclear is far less hazardous."

1148. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 232.
"In routine operation a nuclear plant is so much safer than a coal plant that it would take an implausibly bad record of catastrophic failures to alter the assessment. Perhaps there is something especially sinister about dying as a result of an unseen particle that plants itself in the lung and years later produces a cancer. That may be more difficult for people to accept than being crushed or trapped by a rock fall in a mine, colliding with a train hauling coal, or gradually losing lung capacity to emphysema."

1149. William Peirce (Prof, Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96. 233.
"The test of whether any existing property owners deserve compensation when a nuclear plant is built should be the market test. In other words. does the nuclear plant is built should be the market test. In other words. does the nuclear plant raise or lower property values? If we disregarded risks of occupation and proximity on the grounds that they were already reflected in market prices, then only the truly random events, such as the grade-crossing accident or the stray atom of radon. would be worth considering. Not only are these negligible in magnitude but also they show nuclear power to be far safer than coal."

1150. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.). ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 235.
"Despite the moral lapses and mismanagement of the details. the grand scheme of nuclear power was correct. It did turn out to be safer and cleaner and (with the breeder) as close to inexhaustible as a contemporary' energy source needs to be. The error in the economic analysis was offset when OPEC gained control over oil pricing, the Federal Power Commission ended the search for new reserves of gas, and the coal industry was hobbled by the new environmental rules. The utilities that were early adopters of nuclear power made the correct decision, even though most of the underlying assumptions were incorrect."

1151. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) V1TAL SPEECHES. Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/3/97), 52.
"The United States has been a leader in development of nuclear power technology and the adoption of stringent safety standards. Not a single member of the public has been harmed by the operation of any of the worlds nuclear plants that meet U.S. standards. (The Chernobyl reactor. which lacked a containment structure. did not meet U.S. standards.)"

1152. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL. SPEECHES, Nov. I. 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/3/97), 52.
"U.S. nuclear power plants themselves have an admirable environmental and public health record. Safety has been a critical consideration in plant design from the beginning. Standard operation of a nuclear plant produces no ill effects. and even in the case of a major malfunction or accident, the use of a containment structure that surrounds the plant prevents the release of significant amounts of radioactive material."

1153. Teny Lash (Dir., Nuclear Energy, Dept. of Energy) in FED. NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/5/97), 1.
"Our research and development activities will lead to reductions in the generation of spent nuclear fuel; address important plant aging concerns that could compromise the Nation's confidence in the continued safe operation of existing plants; and support technological advances that will enable plant operators to continue to assure the plants' safety. Such technologies will allow existing nuclear power plants to continue to operate safely while generating less waste, and help delay the need to build replacement capacity in the near term."

1154. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. 1, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"In addition to these evolutionary new designs, several companies have been working on passively safe designs, which it is hoped will provide even greater protection in the event of an accident. Westinghouse's AP600 and the technology of General Electric's Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR) are moving forward but neither design is ready for commercial construction. Although there are people who argue that we should wait for such designs to be ready before building any new nuclear plants in the United States, currently available designs do no pose a safety problem and are safer than the alternative of increased fossil fuel use. Thus, there is no practical reason to wait for a new design that is theoretically safer, but has its own development problems."

1155. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. 1, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"Reviving nuclear power. As the damaging effects of fossil fuels become more apparent, and the need fur additional electric generating capacity increases, the time for dismissing nuclear power is coming to an end. The current generation of U.S. nuclear power plants have performed well, and an even better generation of new designs is ready."

1156. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/3/97), 52.
"Reviews of the new commercially available designs indicate that they will have favorable safety, operating, and economic characteristics compared to fossil plants if, and this a big if, they can be built as efficiently here as they are in other countries. But experience with the U.S. licensing and court review procedures suggests that it can take two to four times as long to construct a nuclear plant in the United States as it does abroad, with exorbitant increases in cost."

1157. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95. 280-1.
"Spokespersons for the industry assert that the lessons learned from almost four decades of experience with commercial nuclear power are being applied in the design era new generation of smaller, safer reactors free from the technical and economic ills of the present ones. The Advanced Light Water Reactor presently at design stage is alleged to be ten times safer than present reactors in severe accident prevention."

1158. REUTERS NORTH AMERICAN WIRE, Oct. 28, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1.
"'Results of the efforts to strengthen nuclear safety can be seen in the reduced number of unplanned stoppages in nuclear power plants around the world,' Blix said."

1159. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. 1,96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"One commonly sited drawback of nuclear power is that it creates radioactive waste that must be contained for thousands of years. Nuclear waste is a serious concern, but one that can be successfully managed and is less worrisome than the emissions from fossil-fuel plants. Coal, gas, wood, and oil plants emit greenhouse gases and other undesirable materials to the environment."

1160. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. 1, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"Since high-level waste, composed largely of spent nuclear fuel, remains radioactive for thousands of years, the plan is to seal this waste in sturdy containers and bury it in underground geological structures that have remained stable for millions of years. The feasibility of this approach has been supported by a large number of national and international studies and indeed, by a natural underground nuclear reaction some 200 million years ago in the West African Republic of Gabon. The 60 tons of radioactive by-products remain localized underground to this day."

1161.  DES MOINES REGISTER. June 3, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 8. 
"Of the three negative ideas your editorial mentions (Chernobyl, the return of used fuel in accordance with agreements of long standing, and nuclear waste), only the last can be attributed in any way to our commercial nuclear-power program. There is to my knowledge no credible reason to suppose this problem cannot be solved by means of long-term geologic storage. The barriers to a solution are not practical but political ."

109

1162. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 495.
"Of course nuclear waste presents to society a problem more severe than waste from any other energy source. But that's all it presents: a problem. Many environmentalists depict nuclear waste as a hyperdeadly doomsday threat. Except under an extreme circumstance, this simply is not true."

1163. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., ,4tlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,495.
"Items like the distance at which nuclear waste is dangerous are essential to an ecorealist understanding of the virtues and defects of atomic power. A common misconception exists that if, say, the atomic wastes to be buried under the desert at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, somehow sprang loose, perhaps by an earthquake of historic magnitude, and somehow popped out of their shielding, vast areas of the Southwest would be irradiated forever, with all Nevada evacuated and roped off. In fact only the zone within a few hundred yards of the Yucca tunnels would be effected. Tourists would be able to walk up within half a mile and linger for hours, taking no meaningful risk."

1164. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., ,4tlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,494.
"Meanwhile petroleum combustion is responsible for most of the country's smog and much of its greenhouse gases. And believe it or not, petroleum production releases considerably more radiation than the trace emissions of nuclear plants. In 1986 it was discovered that radium, a source of radon gas, commonly occurs in conjunction with oil deposits. Since then biologists have found that wastewater from an oil production field in Bayou Terrebonne, Louisiana, contains about 20 times more radiation than the water discharge of the worst nuclear reactors. Other oilfields also release radiation. The sum of radiation released each year by oil production is slight. But if your worry is radiation emitted to the environment, it appears you ought to fret about petroleum, no uranium."

1165. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P., GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 52.
"Alter the Department of Energy Considered a number of possible storage sites for the waste and made its recommendations, Congress selected Yucca Mountain, Nevada, which is adjacent to a nuclear weapons testing site, as the place for the first high-level waste repository. Extensive underground exploration of the site and evaluation of its geology is now under way. It this research finds that the site is suitable, the repository will begin operation in the 2010-2020 period. In the meantime, the used fuel can be safety stored indefinitely in aboveground facilities."

1166. Environmental & Energy Study lnst. Report, MONTHLY PULSE, Jan. 22, 97, 13.
"Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska), who has put nuclear waste storage high up on the committee's agenda, predicted in a statement recently that President Clinton would sign interim storage legislation during the new Congress. '1 make this prediction based on the hope President Clinton and a new Energy secretary will act responsibly and put public safety and common sense above politics. The Senate passed our interim storage legislation last year by a wide margin, and there are no excuses for inaction during the coming year,' Murkowski said. 'It is irresponsible to allow high-level radioactive waste to continue accumulating at 80 sites in 41 states, near homes and schools. We need a safe, national policy of interim storage at one site, until a permanent facility is opened."'

1167. Environmental & Energy Study lust. Report, MONTHLY PULSE, Jan. 22, 97, 14.
"According to Marshall, transportation of spent fuel has been going on quietly and safely for 30 years. The canisters in which the nuclear waste is shipped are rugged and designed to withstand accidents. 'There have been seven accidents so far and there has been no instance of the canisters having breached,' she said."

1168. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 212.
"This same concern lies behind the opposition to the breeder reactor, for the breeder is designed to produce a great deal of plutonium, which could then be separated from the waste and used as fuel. Since other countries are building breeders and reprocessing facilities anyway, it is not obvious that the refusal of the United States to do so will contribute to the safety of the world. Moreover. the potential for diversion of military plutonium in Eastern Europe now appears to be a greater risk."

1169. Rick Michael (Staff) in NUCLEAR NEWS, Jan., 97, 43.
"George Comet, general manager for Belgonucleaire, in Belgium, said the program and success of the nuclear industry in Europe bodes well for its role in sustainable development. The nuclear power industry in the European Union has operated for 40 years. currently operates 146 reactors, has reprocessed 60,000 tons of fuel and 500 tons of MOX fuel, and has a perfect record for safety and non-proliferation."

1170. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,525.
"Sea dumping of nuclear wastes probably does limited harm, since the vastness of the ocean dilutes radiation. In 1993 an international team of radiation experts, meeting at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. concluded that radioactive wastes dumped in the world's oceans 'apparently pose no global danger.' The group found 'no evidence' of general radiation problems in the North Atlantic or Arctic Sea, or in fish caught there."

1171. Bennett Johnston (U.S. Rep., LA), ENV1R. INFO. NETWORKS, Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1.
"Barclay Jones, nuclear engineering professor at the University of Illinois, told the hearing, 'We can't pretend that some magic energy source will appear suddenly and save us from the consequences of climate change. The fact is, only six-tenths of one percent of the nation's electricity currently comes from solar, wind. and geothermal.' Jones said that those will call themselves environmentalists should rethink nuclear energy. 'If we are to keep a lid on the very real environmental and health costs of power production and still provide sufficient electricity for a growing economy. we will need conservation, gas turbines and renewable energy sources along with nuclear power plants.'

1172. Chauncey Starr (Pres.. Electric Power Rsrch. Inst.), NUCLEAR NEWS. Mar., 97 (Online, Nexis, 3/4/97), 58.
"The remaining two-thirds of this future demand must be shared by fossil fuels and nuclear. Promotion of a total renewables dreamworld by some policymakers is unfortunately a gross public deception and socially irresponsible. The world will sorely need the nuclear option. Thus, in a most basic sense, nuclear power has a future global role. but one whose shape in the next century depends on the pathways chosen for it in the coming decades."

1173. Bertram Wolfe (Fmr. V. P.. GE's Nuc. Energy Organization) VITAL SPEECHES, Nov. I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97). 52.
"If we limit our planning to proven and reliable energy technologies with adequate fuel supplies and low environmental risks that we know can meet the worlds energy needs in the 21st century, we must focus on nuclear power."

1174. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY. 95, 281-2.
"After reviewing the considerable uncertainties over future availability of fossil fuels and other energy alternatives, science policy specialists Joseph G. Morone and Edward J. Woodhouse concluded that the nuclear option still makes sense. We cannot predict what energy the nation and world will want or need, nor what options will be available to meet the demands .... It is conceivable that there will be enough options to render nuclear power unnecessary in many nations, but equally conceivable that there will not be. And if such difficulties as the greenhouse effect do force a shift away from coal, and financially feasible energy alternatives are not available, much of the world may be backed into a comer: either rapidly construct a new generation of giant light water reactors, feared by a substantial portion of the population, or face the economic and other consequences of extremely tight energy supplies."

1175. Chauncey Starr (Pres., Electric Power Rsrch. lnst.), NUCLEAR NEWS. Mar., 97 (Online, Nexis, 3/4/97), 58.
"Nevertheless, regions without abundant natural gas or coal face the alternative of importing fuels at relatively high cost, and nuclear has demonstrated that its technology can complete with all alternatives when in such a framework (e.g., France). and especially if all social objectives such as national security (energy independence) are valued. The key is a stable long-range energy strategy."

1176. Bernard Weinstein (Staff) in AUSTIN AM. STATESMAN, Oct. 26, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), A I5.
'Without question, the prospect of retail competition in the electric power industry poses challenges to the nation's investor-owner utilities, especially those with ownership in nuclear generating plants. But let's not be too quick in writing the nuclear industry's epitaph. In reality, improved performance in recent years has proved that nuclear power is cost competitive with most alternatives."

1177. William White (Dep. Sec., Dept. Energy) in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8. 95, 16.
"Energy conservation is a cornerstone of the Administration's program to reduce our energy vulnerability. Americans are now using 1/3 less energy than they did about 20 years ago to produce each dollar of gross domestic product--a direct result of energy efficiency measures."

1178. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON TFIE EARTH, 95,355.
"In truth energy conservation has been among the most muscular trends to American society for two decades. Conservation has forced down world oil prices and contained inflation even as Americans enjoy the privileges of ample energy as never before: driving more miles, flying dramatically more often. being air-conditioned everywhere they go. The next two decades should bring with them continuing muscular reductions in the energy intensity of Western society, even as production increases and material comforts remain."

1179. Nick Johnstone (Jr. Rsrch. Officer, Dept. Applied Eco., U. Cambridge) et al. in GLOBAL WARMING & ENERGY DEMAND, 95.6.
'Since there is no economic technology to absorb the primary greenhouse gas, CO2. any abatement policy must focus on source reductions and not clean-up technologies. Moreover, since each of the individual fuels possess distinct. but unique. carbon contents. CO2 emissions are a function of the type of fuel used. In addition, since global warming is a global common property issue the location of emission sources is irrelevant to the determination of environmental damages. For these reasons. differential taxation of fuel types will efficiently tax carbon inputs. CO2 emission outputs and environmental damages."

1180. Adam Rose (Prof.. Mineral Eco., PA St. U.) in THE ENERGY JRNL. #3, 95, 67.
"Energy conservation is almost universally considered a prime strategy for mitigating greenhouse gases."

1181. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. ,,Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95, 318.
"The first and most important point of environmental economics is that so far nearly all forms of conservation have cost less than expected, owing to unanticipated technical discoveries and free-market innovations. Vinyl chloride regulation is just one example. When the nationwide conversion to unleaded gasoline began in 1977, petroleum companies predicted price increases of 20 cents per gallon in 1994 cents. Instead refining unleaded gas now costs only an added one cent per gallon. Acid rain permits were expected to sell for $600 to $700 per ton. Instead they are selling for about $150, as controls are costing utilities substantially less than expected."

1182. Richard A. Birdsey & Linda S. Heath (Rsrch. Scientists, USDA Forest Serv.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 355.
"As a consequence of expected increases in emissions of greenhouse gases and an acceleration of global change effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems, analysts have proposed various strategies to reduce emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere or to offset emissions by storing additional carbon in forests or other terrestrial carbon sinks. Carbon sinks are a component of the U.S. strategy for limited national contributions to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Of particular interest in the United States are options for increased tree planting, increased recycling, changes in harvesting and ecosystem management practices, and carbon offset programs."

1183. Richard H. Waring & Michael G. Ryan (Prof, Forestry, Oregon St. U. & Rsrch. Scientist, USDA Forest Serv.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 300.
"Forests represent the most complicated types of vegetation and store more than 70% of the total terrestrial carbon in their biomass and soil organic matter. Forests demonstrate the principles by which most vegetation captures and exchanges carbon with the atmosphere."

1184. Richard A. Birdsey & Linda S. Heath (Rsrch. Scientists, USDA Forest Serv.) in WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97. 355.
"Living trees have a major role in energy conservation. Windbreaks, shelter belts, and properly placed urban trees and reduce the use of energy to heat and cool buildings and to farm affected croplands. Such trees also increase carbon storage in woody plants and soil. Globally, the potential savings are estimated to be substantial."

1185. Richard A. Birdsey & Linda S. Heath (Rsrch. Scientists, USDA Forest Serv.) in WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR.. 97. 355.
"One mitigation option favored for increasing carbon sinks is an increase in reforestation of marginal cropland and pasture. Investigation of several scenarios shows the possibility of medium- to long-term gains in carbon storage, on the order of 5-10 Tg/yr for a relatively low cost program treating about 8.094 x 10 10 m2 of timberland that would also produce an economic return on investment. A more ambitious program that treated more of the biologically suitable land in the United States could achieve substantially higher gains."

1186. Edward S. Rubin (Prof., Climate Studies, Carnegie Mellon U.) in WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 943.
"Sequestering CO2 in new forest growth can offset anthropogenic emissions by fixing carbon in plant tissue. Long-term sequestration requires that forests are periodically harvested for lumber and wood products that remain in service and do no return CO2 to the atmosphere by combustion. Based on work in Ref. 30 it is estimated that a reforestation program for the U.S. involving approximately 30 million hectares of economically marginal crop lands, pasture lands, and non-federal forests (about 3% of U.S. land area) could sequester roughly 5% of current U.S. CO2 emissions at an average cost of $7 per ton of CO2.'

1187. Karl W. Boer (Prof, Material Sci. Engineering, U. DE) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR.. 97, 962-3.
"One way to eliminate the annual net increment of CO2 is by planting trees that resorb at least half of the emitted amount. i.e.. 9.07 billion t (10 billion tons) of CO2 per year."

1188. Karl W. Boer (Prof, Material Sci. Engineering, U. DE) in WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY &THE ENVIR.. 97, 965.
"A reverse of the present trend seems essential. But it will take time before it becomes effective, as it is known to every captain of a large ship who wants to change its course. The industrial complex and its economics are slow to respond. Therefore changes will have to initiated now. leaving enough lead time for corrective action to take hold. The anticipated changes must be initially globally. and they will influence almost every sector in life. Such a change when initiated properly, can still avoid a recession, or a loss of millions of jobs. Just by planting trees, one could employ a few million people--temporarily--though not as a profit-making enterprise. It will, however, provide lead time until the impact of alternative energy conversion sources can be felt by reducing the CO2 release."

1189. Edward S. Rubin (Prof., Climate Studies, Carnegie Mellon U.) in WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 945.
"Should significant global warming actually become observable in the next century, international deliberations also might consider the use of green engineering measures that directly or indirectly affect the earth's radioactive balance (for example, stratospheric particles that screen out sunlight). Our analysis of nine such measures suggests that some of these may be very inexpensive and capable of reducing greenhouse warming on a substantial scale."

1190. Michael Common (Prof., Envir. Eco., Australian Nat'l. U.), SUSTAINABILITY & POLICY, 95, 291.
"Release particulates into the atmosphere. Release into the atmosphere gases that offset the effects of the greenhouse gases. Promote cloud formation. Steer tropical storms away from populated areas."

1191. Stephen H. Schneider (Prof., Bio. Sci., Stanford U.), LABORATORY EARTH, 97, 135.
"Robert Frosch, a former administrator of NASA and then vice president of research at General Motors, went so far as to calculate how many battleship cannons aimed skyward and loaded with dust bombs targeted on the stratosphere it would take to reflect away enough sunlight to offset warming from a CO2 doubling. The annual costs of this geoengineering project were in the tens of billions, but less than the cost of fuel taxes, he argued."

111

1192. Dennis Bakke (CEO, AES COW., VA) in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95. 7.
"I really wonder whether or not we're overemphasizing the problems in energy policy. We don't have an energy crisis. We don't even have an environmental crisis. An unnecessary emphasis then leads to putting more money into things, more emphasis, more bureaucracy, more control. We ought to not make an overall policy especially since we don't really know--or couldn't agree in this country what sustainable means."

1193. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95. 330-1.
"'In the United States,' Bernstam says, 'energy consumption per dollar of gross national product has been declining at a consistent one percent per year since the year 1929.' This means the energy intensity of the U.S. lifestyle has been going down for six decades--though current energy consumption brings universal central heating, near-universal air-conditioning, luxurious cars, jet transportation, color television. computers and other power-hungry developments." [Emphasis in original]

1194. Marilyn Brown (Staff. Oak Ridge Nat'l. Lab) et al. SCIENCE & TECH. FOR A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, Mar. 95.3.
"Without the scientific accomplishments and technologies that DOE's national laboratories have produced to date. the nation's energy bill would be much higher today. In 1970, the United States consumed 23,000 Btu of energy for each 1987 dollar of gross domestic product (GDP). By 1993, the energy intensity of the economy had dropped to 16.000 Btu per 1987 dollar of GDP, representing a 30% improvement and annual savings of more than $100 billion in energy costs."

1195. Ed Kondis (V.P.. Mobil's Mid West GulfCoast Bus. Group)in HSE HRGS: FUTURE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS. June 6, 95, 50.
"According to a recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. oil markets have changed dramatically since the oil disruptions of the 1970's or even as recently as a few years ago. Oil is a globally traded and priced commodity. U.S. sources of supply are more diversified today. In 1994, about 55% of our imports of crude oil came from our NAFTA partners, the North Sea and Western Hemisphere sources versus about 40% in 1990, while Persian Gulf imports have declined to about 20% from over 30% in 1990."

1196. Irwin Stelzer (Staid in SUNDAY TIMES, Apr. 21.96 (Online. Nexis, 4/5/97). I.
"But all is not lost. Curtis and Romm are driven to the unsurprising conclusion that we can have energy security by giving their department more money. Apparently, a $16 billion annual budget is not enough to fund research into the development of nickel metal-hydride batteries for use in electric cars. the use of petrol substitutes such as biofuels, and a host of other technologies on which the department is willing to risk taxpayers' money. But there are far better ways for America to protect its energy security than to turn over a few more billions to a department that has consistently forecast oil shortages so as to scare Congress into increasing its appropriations, and has presided over what even Curtis and Romm describe as 'big, expensive failures, such as the synthetic-fuels program'. One of these is to diversify sources of supply, a strategy the duo mentions but does not pursue. Nearby Mexico is desperately seeking to expand its oil output. Canada is a virtually undeveloped oil province, Russia would like to step up its output, oil is being found in places thought unpromising just a few years ago. By encouraging these developments, America can shrink the power of the OPEC oil cartel."

1197. Christopher Flavin (V. Pres., World Watch lnst.) in VITAL SIGNS, 96, 48.
"World oil production rose 1.5 percent in 1995 to 3,031 million tons (60.5 million barrels a day), according to preliminary estimates. This is the largest annual rise since 1990. Oil production continues to climb in scores of countries that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC); oil shortages appear unlikely during the next five years, and production is likely to surpass the all-time record set in 1979. Meanwhile, prices rose slightly in 1995 to just over $17 per barrel. spurred by rising demand in developing countries."

1198. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum lnst. in ENERGY, Feb., 96, 13.
"The USGS estimates for undiscovered. resources are estimated as a range, with 21 years of oil the middle forecast. There is a chance that fewer reserves will be discovered and a chance that more undiscovered reserves exist in the world. So how long will the world's oil last? There is a 95 percent probability that remaining oil resources (discovered and undiscovered) could sustain production at 1993 levels for at least 63 years. At the optimistic end. there is a 5 percent chance that oil resources could sustain production at the same rate for 93 years. But this calculation is almost certainly still too conservative, because it doesn't include technical change that allows more oil to be recovered from a given field or that causes more oil to be discovered for a given level of drilling effort."

1199. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum lnst. in ENERGY, Feb., 96, 9.
"Over the history of the U.S. petroleum industry, for example, only about a third of the estimated oil in place at known fields has typically been recovered. The remaining two-thirds remains in the ground, a potential recovery target with more advanced technology and/or changes in market conditions (i.e. higher prices)."

1200. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum lnst. in ENERGY, Feb., 96. 13.
"The good news is that world oil resources are abundant, and. if anything, likely to become even more so."

1201. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK, Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96. 25.
"The world's proven reserves of oil have increased from some 540 billion barrels in 1969 to just over 1000 billion barrels in 1992."

1202. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK. Open U.), RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96. 25.
"Proven reserves increase as exploration increases. Exploration for oil is a very expensive business. The amount of exploration is dependent upon economic conditions, particularly the price of oil, and upon political condition."

1203. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum lust. in ENERGY, Feb., 96, 9.
"According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), world proved reserves of oil are actually higher now than ever before, and conventional recovery methods could support current levels of production for at least another half century and perhaps much longer if technological progress continues."

1204. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum lnst. in ENERGY, Feb., 96, 12.
"As in the United States, the world's total resource base is far larger than proved reserves alone. According to a paper presented by the USGS at the 1994 World Petroleum Congress, the ceiling on the world's ultimate recoverable oil resources is now estimated at 2.3 trillion barrels, of which 700 billion barrels have already been produced. Consequently, between 1.4 trillion and 2.1 trillion barrels remain to be produced worldwide. This amount would sustain current rates of world consumption from 63 to 95 years.'

1205. Stephen Moore (Economist Cato lnst.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET. 95.116-7.
"Prices are the most objective way that economists have of measuring the relative scarcity of goods and services. A rising price of a commodity, good, or service is a signal that demand is outstripping supply (or is expected to outstrip supply in the future) and that a shortage may emerge. This same law of supply and demand applies to natural resources. If there were an impending shortage of coal, copper, rubber, or tin, then buyers and sellers would consistently bid up their price. Conversely, if a huge new reserve of oil were discovered, or demand for oil were expected to drop because of the sudden introduction of an alternative energy source, buyers and sellers would consistently bid down oil prices. In sum, a rising price of a resource indicates increasing supply relative to demand; a falling price indicates declining supply relative to demand."

112

1206. D. J. Martin & D. P. Moon. (Prof., Strategic Studies. ETSU, UK) in HYDROGEN & OTHER ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR GROUND & AIR TRANS.. 95, 7.
"Oil is likely to be available throughout the next century, with demand varying beneath a supply ceiling. This ceiling will probably remain below 4 Gtoe pa and decline slowly from about year 2030. Investment in high-cost oil production will continue to be inhibited by the potential availability of flexible but volatile production from the Middle East--limited by policies or crises, rather than by resource availability or cost."

1207. D. J. Martin & D. P. Moon, (Profs., Strategic Studies. ETSU, UK) in HYDROGEN & OTHER ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR GROUND & AIR TRANS., 95, 7.
"The Middle East holds two-thirds of the world's proved reserves of oil. These would last for about 90 years at I Gtoe pa average production. Elsewhere, production currently totals over 2.2 Gtoe, but the reserve/production ratio is only 21 years. The use of improved production technology (notably in the CIS), coupled with further discoveries, could maintain output near to 2 Gtoe for several decades. At that stage, conventional oil could be supplemented by more extensive development of heavy oil deposits, tar sands and shale oil. Total reserves and resources of unconventional oil are much larger than those of conventional oil, and they could help to maintain total world oil production near to 3 Gtoe throughout the 21st century ."

1208. David Greene (Sr. Staff. Oak Ridge Nat'l. Lab.) in ENERGY, Nov.. 96, 4.
"Energy economists now realize that oil resources are not properly termed 'exhaustible,' first because that term misrepresents the nature of oil resources and. second, because it is entirely contrary to historical experience. historical experience is that there is always more oil."

1209. David Greene (St. Staff. Oak Ridge Nat'l. Lab.)in ENERGY. Nov.. 96. 4.
" Historically, oil reserves have not behaved like a fixed stock but rather like a renewable inventory. Of course. one can argue that this cannot continue. According to this view, there is only a finite amount of oil in the world. We are using it at a growing rate and, therefore, someday we will run out. To most of us, the truth of this is self-evident. But, for the moment. imagine a make-believe world in which new reserves can be found just by looking: and where one can go back to depleted wells and get more oil; where things that are not oil can be ' converted' into oil; and finally, where one can obtain the same output (vehicle miles, indoor heating) with less oil input. In fact. the 'imaginary,' less widely recognized world is closer to the truth. The reality is that oil is not a fixed stock. but an expandable entity whose boundaries are defined by technology and investment."

1210. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum lust. in ENERGY, Feb., 96, 9.
"Since the dawn of the petroleum industry in the mid-19th century, concern about the imminent exhaustion of the world's petroleum resource base has occurred in waves. From today's perspective. such concerns of exhaustion were premature, if not ludicrous."

1211. Stephen Moore (Economist, Cato lust.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95. 136-7.
"As nonsensical as these estimates may seem. none of them is any less defensible than projecting that resources will run out or that population will explode in the next century. The reason that the analyses are wrong is that short-term trends almost never continue because human beings adapt their behavior and change their environment in response to changing conditions. For example, although economic output in 1989 was roughly 30 percent higher than in 1979 and although the U.S. population rose by 10 percent over this period, energy consumption was up only roughly 3 percent. In other words, Btu's per dollar of GNP were roughly 20 percent lower in 1989 than in 1979. Inventive minds responded to the economic incentives of the 'energy crisis' by finding ways to make industry and consumers more energy efficient. Trend analysis cannot account for such behavioral changes. For this reason, reports such as Global 2000 have very little scientific value. Their 'contribution' is to scare needlessly people and divert resources from real problems." [Emphasis in original]

1212. Julian L. Simon (Prof., Bus. Adm., U. MD), THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE 2, 96, 184-5.
"The most important long-run fact about oil is the decline in the price of crude since it was first discovered. The most important short-run fact is the decline in the price of gasoline--the key petroleum product---so that the price now is lower than ever in our history, despite the activities of the OPEC cartel."

1213. Report: ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 96, U.S. Energy lnfo. Agency, 96, 6.
"In February 1995, the USGS released its latest assessment of U.S. oil and gas resources, almost tripling the conventional onshore inferred reserves estimate compared to the 1989 USGS assessment."

1214. Patrick Crow (Energy Policies Ed.), OIL & GAS JRNL., June 17. 96, 18.
"Real energy prices have declined steadily since the early 1980s. In constant dollars, Schleede said, crude oil prices were down by 71% in 1995 from the high reached in 1981 and refinery gasoline prices, including taxes, were down 45%. What's more, U.S. energy efficiency has improved even though energy prices have continued to decline in real terms since the early 1980s. During 1973-95, U.S. energy consumption increased 17.5% while gross domestic product increased 72.8%."

1215. Stephen Moore (Economist, Cato Inst.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 122.
"Relative to wages, however, all forms of energy have experienced price reductions. In 1920, for example, the wage-indexed price of oil was roughly twice its current level, the price of electricity was six times above its current level, and coal was almost seven times more expensive. The data for the long-term trend in oil prices indexed by wages are shown in figure 4-3. Like all other natural resources, energy is not becoming scarcer over time: it is becoming more plentiful."

1216. Int'l. Energy Outlook 1995 (U.S. Dept. Energy) in WASH. QRTLY., Autumn, 96, 76.
"The world oil price has declined in recent years, and in real terms it is currently near its 1970 level. The combination of enhanced oil production capacity, end-use technologies that are more fuel-efficient, and shifts from oil to alternative energy sources has resulted in strong downward pressure on prices, even 'though worldwide demand for oil has continued to increase. Prices are expected--absent any major political event that would affect oil markets--to remain stable for the next few years and then to rise gradually, remaining below $25 per barrel (in 1993 U.S. dollars), through the end of the projection period."

1217. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 3 I-2.
"It is useful to review briefly actual experience with oil market disruptions and oil price behavior since 1973. While this particular period is marked by considerable price volatility, otherwise the price of oil has been remarkably stable throughout the past century, as shown by the graph of crude oil prices in the United States in Figure 3. I. Except for the period between 1973 and 1986, the price of oil in constant dollars has remained in the range or $10 to $20 per barrel for most of the last hundred years."

1218. William F. Martin (Fmr. U.S. Deputy Sec. of Energy) et al., MAINTAINING ENERGY SECURITY IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT: A REPORT TO THE TRILATERAL COMMISSION, 9.
"Considerably higher energy prices for an extended period could call forth additional non-Gulf supplies and reduce the growth of demand. In the discussion of this report, some persons asked us to predict oil prices to 2010, from which supply and demand would follow. But this is not the way energy companies plan their projections. they look at various factors in the development of supply and demand (including factors as broad as rates of population growth and economic growth), and at the various scenarios that seem to flow from supply and demand developments. They (and we) assume that oil prices will fluctuate to some extent, and that politically motivated disruptions may bring abrupt price rises for a time. Without such disruptions, the supply and demand outlook to 2010 so far includes no dramatic, extended rise in real oil prices."

1219.  ETHANOL REPORT (Renewable Fuels Assn.), Dec. 12, 96, 2. 
"Average world crude oil prices are projected to be about $21/bbl ('95$) in 2015, $5 lower than the $26/bbl projection from 1996. The EIA notes that lower prices reflect expectations that oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will expand and that technology advances will sustain non-OPEC production."

113

1220. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 22.
"Forecasters have consistently overestimated the growth of oil prices since the second oil price shock in 1979-80. Forecasts by government and academic experts are no better than those by private industry; Huntington 1994 discusses long-term price-forecasting errors endemic during the early 1980s. However, the degree to which prices embody relevant information about market conditions has increased in recent years. The literature does not provide strong support for the existence of a systematic ex ante bias in forecasting energy prices, despite the obvious ex post bias."

1221. Robert Beck (Staff, Edison Electric lnst.) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 60.
"In 1973, we projected that oil prices by this time in our life would be about $70 a barrel. We were very excited about oil shale on the west slope of the Rockies. There were a lot of things that we thought were going to happen. Oil this morning, I think, was in the neighborhood or about $18 a barrel. In 1973, oil was about $16 a barrel. Over a 20-year period, I think we can see that projections of times are in error. We need to use projections and models, but we have to understand that they're tools and we need to be a lot more flexible."

1222. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 149.
"If the Middle East does remain reasonably stable, then prices should not rise much above the current level except to keep pace with increases in the prices of such substitutes as coal and natural gas. Now that oil has become the highest-price fuel, purchased mainly for its special advantages in mobile uses and in stationary applications that have not yet been converted, the price elasticity of demand is far higher than it was in the days when it was still a bargain even when prices doubled."

1223. Jane Ellis (Staff, lnt'l. Energy Agency), OECD OBSERVER, Aug./Sept., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 17.
"Renewable energy can be derived from a variety of sources--geothermal, wind, solar, tidal, wave, biomass, municipal and industrial waste. Renewable energy has been promoted in some OECD countries since the 1970s. But although the concerns for energy security and the heavy dependence on oil--the main initial stimulants for development of renewable energy still have relevance today, the world has changed radically. The lEA countries have moved from an era or high prices for energy and concern over energy (and particularly oil) supplies to one of relatively low prices and more transparent global energy markets."

1224. Patrick Crow (Energy Policies Ed.), OIL & GAS JRNL., June 17, 96, 17.
"Philip Verleger, a Washington analyst, recently told a congressional hearing a true market for oil and energy has developed during the past 20 years. He said, 'Oil exporting countries lost control of the market, oil prices and supplies were deregulated in consuming countries, and markets fur other forms of energy were deregulated.' As a result of this, it is hard to imagine that one group of producers or one producing country will ever again be able to exert prolonged control over the price of oil."

1225. William Peiree (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96. 243.
"A second noneconomic argument is that conversion to solar will move us toward energy independence. If the United States imported less oil. then both the United States and its allies would be able to follow more nearly independent foreign policies, especially toward the Middle East, and would be less damaged by interruptions in supply that may occur even if we maintain good relations with governments or producing states. This argument also denies that markets are acting appropriately. If the risks of having supply interrupted are so great, someone could make money by stockpiling oil and selling it at a high price during the shortage."

1226. Patrick Crow (Energy Policies Ed.), OIL & GAS JRNL., June 17, 96, 18.
"Glenn Schleede or' Energy Market & Policy Analysis Inc., Reston, Va., said world energy markets have changed dramatically and favorably since current government energy policies and spending programs were conceived. 'These changes in energy markets need to be taken into account as you consider DOE's proposals to spend another $2-2.5 billion on energy supply and conservation technologies.' He said past energy market forecasts have drastically overestimated energy prices, distorting many government and private sector decisions and resulting in billions of dollars of added costs for consumers, taxpayers, and investors."

1227. John McCormack (Member, Stere, Stewart & Co.) in REGULATION, No. 1, 96, 19-20.
"Nevertheless, Americans can protect themselves without resorting to the enormous human and financial expense of military action. Financial institutions such as commercial banks and investment banks already play a very large role in providing such protection. Through them, some consumers have already locked in energy prices by buying swaps or have established maximum prices for energy (caps) by buying average rate call options."

1228. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96. 84.
"Perhaps the single most important development that has moderated the effects of price expectations on market stability is the emergence of a futures market for crude oil and products alter 1980.

1229. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al.. THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 83.
"The existence of an active spot market reduced the need to hold inventories of crude oil and refined products and, at the same time, made it more difficult to pass along to customers excessive inventory carrying costs. In addition. the existence of an active spot market make it possible for the emergence of futures trading in oil. The futures market it will be argued below, enhances the stability of the oil market and makes it less susceptible to shocks. Other instruments for conducting transactions also emerged that have similar stabilizing effects."

1230. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 96.
"If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) exercises market power to hold oil prices above competitive levels, in principle the United States is justified if it seeks to lower oil prices through a concerted national effort at import reduction. However. the degree of market power that OPEC actually has exercised in the past, or is capable of exercising in the future. is in doubt, as we have already shown."

1231. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 39.
"McAvoy (1982) takes issue with the conventional wisdom that observed petroleum prices and quantities during the 1970s reflect the exercise of seller market power. He expresses the view that the price explosions in that decade reflect individual political events and demand-side responses rather than concerted OPEC decisions. In particular, he attributes the market responses primarily to a burgeoning of world petroleum demand. significant declines in non-OPEC production. and some adjustment of production plans by individual OPEC members. OPEC's inability to control the market effectively is further highlighted. MacAvoy argues, by its inability to offset subsequent stagnation of demand and non-OPEC production increases in the wake of the price jumps during the 1970s."

1232. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al.. THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 42-3.
"Uncertainties and suspicions about OPEC's dominance are enhanced by an informal look at the data. Direct evidence of the exercise of market power by OPEC would be present if there were obvious reductions in supply in 1973-74 and 1979, when the two price shocks occurred. Indirect evidence of market power would be present if the price of oil failed to decline after 1980 when world oil demand was declining. Experience in each of these cases does not support the view that OPEC has exercised a significant degree of market power."

1233. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 76.
"The mix of countries that contribute significant volumes to world oil supply has changed since the 1970s. Major increases in production have occurred in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the group of 'other countries,' while major reductions have occurred in the United States and among the members of OPEC. The most significant increases in production have come from the group of other countries, which includes many individually small producers who collectively add much to the price responsiveness of supply. Because of their small size, these producers are not easily recruited to join in efforts to regulate output and the price, nor are they likely to view such actions to be in their interest. With exploration funds continuing to flow into countries that are relative newcomers in the oil market, some observers conclude that production from this group will continue to rise until after the end of the century."

114

1234. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 86.
"The geographical composition of world oil production and consumption has changed a great deal during the past twenty years, and the changes reflect considerable long-run price responsiveness. Not unexpectedly, low oil prices experienced over the past several years are working to boost OPEC's share of the market. The long-term implications of OPEC's resurgence are not especially troubling, however. Because both supply and demand are price-sensitive, any attempt by OPEC to restrict output and impose a high oil price on the world would force another cycle of investment in conservation and production that would ultimately limit OPEC's market power."

1235. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 86-7.
"A larger source of comfort to those looking for oil market stability comes from the development and maturing of market instruments and institutions. The world oil market of today barely resembles that of the 1970s in the way oil is supplied to the market, in the way that buyers make transactions, and in the range of instruments available to buyers and sellers for making transactions. As a consequence of these changes, the market is less affected by shocks, and prices are not likely to be as volatile as they were in the 1970s. The price of oil should be expected to fluctuate on a daily basis by greater amounts than it did twenty years ago much as it has since 1986--but it will be less susceptible to major shocks. The enhanced stability of the market weakens any argument for adopting energy security policies based on past experience with oil shocks."

1236. Hooshang Amirah Madi (Prof., Planning & Policy Dir., Rutgets U.) in JRNL. OF ENERGY & DEVEL., Vol. 21, No. 1, 96, 118.
"The West's perception of OPEC as a menacing cartel needs greater reality. As one oil analyst has put it: 'OPEC is currently the principal institutional factor keeping world oil prices at a high enough level to permit replacement of depleting reserves even in relatively high-cost areas. such as the U.S.' If the hypothetical marginal output cost were to set the price of oil, it would most likely be half the 1994 level. hardly profitable for many producers, particularly those outside OPEC. Because OPEC allows the least efficient producers to survive, it makes a 'super-profit.' Yet. this income is by no means unjustified given the growth effect of OPEC oil revenue on Western economies and the revenue requirements of OPEC members for capacity expansion, infrastructural projects, and welfare spending."

1237. Hooshang Amirah Madi (Prof:, Planning & Policy Dir., Rutgets U.) in JRNL. OF ENERGY& DEVEL., Vol. 21, No. 1,96, 114.
"If the Iranian experience is any indication, the dependence on oil revenue and on Western markets for most of their basic needs would force the leadership in OPEC states to quickly return to oil export markets."

1238. William Peirce (Prof, Eco., Case Western Reserve U.). ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES. 96, 149.
"The long-run cohesion of OPEC is by no means a certainty if the price of crude begins to decline because several producers (notably lran, lraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates)have huge reserves, relative to production, that they may want to exploit if it becomes clear that their value in the ground is decreasing."

1239. Hooshang Amirah Madi (Prof., Planning & Policy Dir.. Rutgers U.) in JRNL. OF ENERGY & DEVEL.. Vol. 21, No. 1. 96, 114-6.
"This brings us to the sensitive and widely misunderstood question of 'the Islamic threat' to the political stability and the West's oil interest in the Middle East. The perceived 'Islamic threat' is, in fact, rooted in a set of objective and subjective factors that include both real and imaginary sources. The fictitious side of this perceived threat is largely a product of certain media misconceptions and pundits who explain the present-day tension between the Western and Muslim worlds as partly reflecting an alleged classical Islamic view that regards the two as inherently inimical."

1240. Hooshang Amirab Madi (Prof., Planning & Policy Dir.. Rutgers U.) in JRNL. OF ENERGY & DEVEL., Vol. 21, No. 1, 96, 116.
"Although no single Muslim state can challenge the West's access to oil, as was well demonstrated during the crisis of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. the prevailing conditions make the formation of a common Islamic front even more unlikely. Significant differences exist among Persians, Arabs. and Turks or between Shiites and Sunhis. Ideological rivalries among Saudi Arabia, lran, and Iraq have prevented a unified stance within OPEC that might have influenced oil prices upward."

1241. Hooshang Amirah Madi (Prof., Planning & Policy Dir., Rutgers U.) in JRNL. OF ENERGY & DEVEL., Vol. 21, No. 1, 96, 116.
"A closer look at the geographic distribution of Muslim oil reserves shows that there is even less cause for concern on-the part of the West. In general, countries in which Islamic movements are strong or radical are also those whose oil production is not critical for the West, such as Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Sudan. In contrast, in the Muslim nations whose oil output is critical for the West, Islamic movements are either weak or follow a moderate ideology, e.g., Saudi Arabia and other, smaller Arab Gulf states."

1242. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 51.
"If energy price shocks do affect economic performance adversely and significantly, then the effects of these shocks should be more pronounced in the more energy-intensive sectors of the economy. However, Bohi's analysis of industry data in the four countries listed above does not support this conclusion."

1243. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 37.
"The lraqi war provided the first opportunity to observe the behavior of the oil futures market during a market crisis. (Significant trading of oil futures had not begun on the New York Mercantile Exchange until 1980.) Throughout the conflict, the futures market consistently discounted crude oil prices for future delivery relative to spot prices. The price for delivery in two months was often below the one-month price. the three-month price was cheaper still, and so on for twelve to eighteen months into the future. This pattern of price behavior indicates that the market regarded the effect of the war to be temporary with no major impact on the long-term level of prices. In other words. the immediate effect of the conflict on supplies was regarded as more important than the long-term effect."

1244. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum lnst. in ENERGY. Feb., 96, I I.
"Economic vulnerability is not an easy concept to define. The vulnerability concern appears to be that supply disruptions will generate high enough price spikes to affect U.S. macroeconomic performance. Careful analysis of the impact of the oil crises of the 1970s indicates that regulatory rigidity (associated with price controls) and mistakes in monetary management were the major causes of disruption o f the economy. However, large price variations have become a normal feature of crude oil markets over the past two decades."

1245. Stephen Moore (Economist, Cato Inst.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 134.
"In sum the energy crisis in the 1970s was attributable mainly to government folly. Congress prevented the price system from operating properly. When the market system for energy was permitted to function in the 1980s, the crisis quickly subsided, and American consumers enjoyed cheaper and abundant oil."

1246. Stephen Moore (Economist, Cato Inst.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 133.
"Indeed. we now have fairly compelling evidence that it was precisely the government interventionist resource policies of the 1970s that exacerbated and lengthened the energy crises of that unfortunate era."

1247. Chantale LaCasse (Prof., Eco., U. Ottawa) in ENERGY JRNL., No. 2, 95, 13-4.
"This conception of security of supply seems to underlie the emergency sharing provisions of the Agreement for an International Energy Programme (hereafter, the IEA agreement). Two features of the agreement point in this direction. First, the trigger for joint policy action in the form of oil supply sharing is for any member country to experience a shortfall in oil supply equivalent to a given proportion (at least 7%) of final consumption. The need for corrective measures is cast in terms of price movements. Further, this trigger implicitly defines a lower bound on the quantity of oil that the IEA commits to securing during market disturbances; namely, 93% of consumption under 'normal conditions'. Second, the specific plan for redistributing available supplies equitably among member nations is a sensible strategy for meeting the targeted quantity of oil on each o f the member countries' domestic market whenever the countries towards which the distribution is effected cannot obtain additional oil on international markets."

115

1248. Douglas Bohi (Staff Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 17.
Higher oil prices no doubt will raise some prices, but unless oil prices continue to rise there is no ongoing inflationary process in the long term, only an increase in the price level (though that increase may be spread over time). Similarly, a rise in oil prices may aggravate an inflationary process that is already in motion, but higher oil prices are not the cause of that inflationary process."

1249. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 18.
"In short, any connection between oil prices and inflation seems dubious and would reflect at most a policy failure, not a market failure."

1250. Patrick Crow (Energy Policies Ed.), OIL & GAS JRNL.. June 17, 96, 18.
'Schleede said despite the rise in U.S. oil imports. they constitute a declining share of total U.S. merchandise imports, declining from a high of 32.1% in 1980 to only 7.3% in 1995. He also said much of the money for oil imports returns to the U.S. as payments for exported merchandise and services. The dollar outflow for oil. in constant dollars, has declined from a high of $138 billion (1994$) in 1980 to $53 billion in 1994."

1251. Patrick Crow (Staff) in OIL & GAS JRNL., Jan. 6, 97.24.
"The General Accounting Office says U.S. reliance on low-priced foreign oil is not a bad energy policy. GAO, a congressional watchdog agency, studied the issue recently for the House Budget Committee and issued a report titled: Evaluating U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Supply Disruptions and Options for Mitigating Their Effects. The paper said the U.S. economy realizes hundreds of billions of dollars in benefits annually by using relatively low-cost imported oil rather than relying on more expensive domestic sources of energy. 'By comparison. oil shocks impose large but infrequent economic costs that, when annualized are estimated to cost the U.S. economy tens of billions of dollars a year."

1252. Patrick Crow (Energy Policies Ed.), OIL & GAS JRNL., June 17. 96, 19.
"'Until recently,' he said. 'there was a highly politicized fear in the U.S. of ever becoming more than 50% dependent on imported oil, even including Canadian imports. There is still talk from various special interest groups that our growing import dependency threatens our national security.' He said the government's position is 'The economic benefits of low cost foreign oil supplies outweigh security risks, and therefore nothing needs to be done to arrest this trend. "'

1253. ETHANOL REPORT (Renewable Fuels Assn.), Feb. 6, 97, 2.
"The General Accounting Office (GAO) has issued a report stating that the U.S. economy benefits to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars annually by using low-cost imported oil rather than relying on 'more expensive' domestic energy sources."

1254. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH. 95,342.
"Studies show that contemporary methods of offshore drilling have no meaningful downside for marine life. For example. mollusk life in the immediate area of a rig usually continues normally."

1255. CITIZEN OUTLOOK (Comm. for a Constructive Tomorrow Newsletter), July/Aug., 95, 2.
"Take oil spills. for example. Of the 2.5 trillion gallons of petroleum products used in the U.S. between 1983 and 1992, only three-thousandths of one percent (0.003) was spilled and the median amount of oil split during that time ranged from 2 to 5 gallons. What's more, even in areas with large, dramatic oil spills like Alaska's Prince William Sound, the results have been far better than originally thought since all expected wildlife species are present and reproducing, and herring and pink salmon have been caught at record or near-record levels since the Exxon spill."

1256. Kent Jeffreys (St. Fellow. Nat'l. Ctr. for Policy Analysis) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 302.
"Experts now admit that even the largest oil spills are 'relatively modest and, as far as can be determined, of relatively short duration.' Certainly it is preferable to avoid all spills, but oil spills are actually temporary disasters."

1257. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 57.
"Overall nature shrugged off the Exxon l/aldez 'disaster' as if -shooing away a mosquito. Prince William Sound went from destroyed to almost like new in about three years, or in less than a single generation for the local large vertebrate species. This is standard operating procedure for the green fortress." [Emphasis in original]

1258. Jonathan Landry (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., July 1 I, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 1.
"Even if the US eliminated its purchases of Gulf oil. it would still have to use its military might to ensure the free flow of petroleum from the region. That is because if Western Europe and Japan were deprived of their Gulf supplies, they would be compelled to compete with the US for other sources, destabilizing world prices."

1259. Jonathan Landry (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., July 11, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), I.
"Paul Hogan of Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government agrees: 'If we did everything that we could think of to reduce our consumption of oil from imports, we would still be left with the problem of a volatile Persian Gulf, where we have strong strategic interests that require us to do the things we are doing in the military context."'

1260. Douglas Bohi (Staff. Resources for the Future) et al.. THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 25.
"The United States undertakes a military presence in the Middle East on behalf of many allies, not just for its own narrow self interest. Thus, the benefits are related to the energy consumption of many nations in addition to the United States. These considerations, together with the observation that the military expenditures serve multiple purposes, sharply reduce the apparent military expenditures premium by enlarging the denominator used to calculate it."

1261. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum Inst. in ENERGY, Feb., 96, II.
'If the United States would be maintaining the military capacity in any case and that dividing up the cost of the military between specific threats is unrealistic."

1262. Douglas Bohi (Staff. Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 25.
'Even identifying the level of military expenditures associated with oil insecurity is problematic, however. For example, military expenditures in the Middle East are made to serve a variety of national security interests other than securing oil flows or stabilizing oil prices. As pointed out in CRS 1992, U.S. involvement in the Middle East has been aimed at containing the perceived threat of Soviet expansion and providing support for Israel, not just protecting oil supplies."

1263. Douglas Bohi (Staff Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96. 53-4.
"It is plausible, however, that even a complete elimination of oil imports to the United States will not eliminate the need for military spending for oil security or, to put it another way, will not reduce the economic cost of a disruption in foreign oil supplies by enough to ignore events that may affect the international flow of oil. The reason, based on our discussion of extemalities above, is that the principal economic cost of a disruption arises because of the economic harm caused by an oil price shock. and this harm will occur whether or not the United States imports any oil. The harm will be largely the same even if imports are completely eliminated because the price of domestically produced oil is still determined by the world price, and any disruption that affects the world price will continue to affect the domestic price. This argument substantially dilutes the rationale for including military spending in the social cost of oil imports."

1264. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al.. THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 27.
"The argument that a large premium attaches to oil because of military expenditures seems grievously flawed on logical grounds and treacherous when it comes to defining (let alone implementing) premium measures."

116

1265. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 25.
"First, to the extent that military expenditures are related to oil imports, they are a cost of mitigating energy insecurity, rather than a cost of insecurity itself. To assume that the level of military expenditures is a good approximation of the externality mistakenly implies that the size of the policy responsible defines the size of the externality. By way of comparison, a pollution externality refers to the damage that pollution imposes on third parties, not the cost of cleaning up the pollution. The magnitude of the environmental damage tells us something about how much we should be willing to spend to clean up the pollution, not the other way around. Thus. the amount of military spending involved is pertinent to a measure of externality involved only if that expenditure reflected an optimal response to oil insecurity."

1266. Allan Pulsipher (Dir., Pol. Anal. Prog., Ctr. for Energy Studies) in THE ENERGY CRISIS. 96, 74.
"1 do not find the usual criticism of the market-cum-military policy--that it reflects only the cheaper imported energy prices and ignores the costs o1' military readiness and intervention--very persuasive. Although the military costs implicit in implementing the policy are very real, and military intervention raises relevant ethical and political issues, I am not sure that there are additional military. or 'ethical,' costs attributable to the strategy." [Emphasis in original]

1267. William Peirce (Prof.. Eco.. Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96. 281.
"The implication of making the United States less dependent on that region would be to make Western Europe and Japan more dependent. The improvement in our freedom of diplomat maneuver would be limited, because in most significant matters the United States would need support from other importing nations."

1268. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum Inst. in ENERGY. Feb., 96, I 0.
'In 1945. for example, cumulative crude oil production in the U.S. stood at about 32 billion barrels, and proved reserves amounted to 20 billion barrels. Between 1945 and the end of 1993, however, 135 billion barrels were produced, and reserves at the end of that time were 23 billion barrels--3 billion barrels higher (emphasis in original) than reserves in 1945. Over the 48-year period, 138 billion barrels of new domestic reserves had been added, more than four times the level of reserves at the beginning of the period."

1269. Victor Burk (Dir., Arthur Anderson Energy Services) in PETROLEUM ECONOMIST, Oct., 96, 45.
'Double digit percentage increases in US and foreign capital spending and production replacement rates, along with continued reductions in reserve replacement costs, suggest the oil and gas exploration and production industry is in its healthiest shape in over 15 years.

1270. Reinventing Energy Excerpts from Am. Petroleum Inst. in ENERGY. Feb., 96, I 0.
"Current estimates of the ultimately recoverable domestic resource base by the DOE are between 263 billion and 368 billion barrels, of which we have already consumed about 164 billion barrels. This leaves a domestic resource base of between 99 and 204 billion barrels. which would support production at recent levels for 38 to 78 years."

1271. Christopher Flavin (V. Pres., World Watch Inst.) in VITAL SIGNS, 96, 48
'One surprise in 1995 was the slowing rate of decline in U.S. oil production, which was down by just 1.8 percent. Advancing technology has allowed U.S. oil companies to locate and exploit remaining small oil reserves that would have been uneconomical a few years ago. Also, U.S. offshore oil production is again expanding, thanks to new deep-water technology."

1272. William White (Dep. Sec., Dept. Energy) in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY. Mar. 8, 95, 20.
"The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the Nation's stockpile of crude oil available in the event of an oil supply disruption. In the event of a disruption, the Reserve is the Nation's insurance against economic damage from supply disruptions and resulting price spikes. The Reserve directly mitigates the threat to national security from either planned or naturally occurring disruptions of petroleum supplies. It contains 592 million barrels of crude oil, which could currently be made available to U.S. refiners at a rate of 3.1 million barrels per day within 15 days of notice."

1273. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 282.
"By the end of 1994, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) amounted to 592 million barrels of crude oil stored mainly in salt caverns. It is not easy and cheap to dump oil into a hole in the ground in such a way that it can be retrieved and moved quickly to market when it is needed. Nevertheless, the SPR has had substantial political support because a large enough stockpile appears to provide some measure of energy independence without the high costs of domestic production at high levels and without running down our reserves."

1274. Victor Burk (Dir., Arthur Anderson Energy Services) in PETROLEUM ECONOMIST, Oct., 96, 47.
"The US gas production replacement rate rose to 132% in 1995, reflecting higher net reserve purchases by the survey companies as a whole; the majors' replacement rate was fiat at 102%, while the independents' measure increased to 172% from 141% in 1994. Over the last three years, surveyed companies have replaced 118% of their US gas production from all sources--92% for majors and 154% for independents."

1275. Colin Campbell (Oil Exploration Geologist) in SUN WORLD, Mar.. 95, 4.
"Gas source-rocks are more widely distributed in nature than are oil source-rocks, and in many countries gas is at a much earlier stage of development. The pipeline costs of extracting gas from remote areas have been the main economic constraint. The world's reserves are currently reported at 5,016 trillion cu. Ft. which in terms of value is equivalent to about 500 Gb of oil. It would not be surprising if there was at least as much again to find, given an Ultimate of 1,000 to t,500 Gboe. It will become an increasingly important source of energy as conventional production declines. About 80% of the as in a reservoir is normally recoverable: much more than in the case of oil.'

1276. William White (Dep. See., Dept. Energy) in HSE HRGS: FUTURE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS, June 6, 95, 8.
"Increasing the use of alternative transportation fuels, including natural gas. ethanol, electricity and others, must be a vital component of a national strategy to address these concerns. This was recognized by those who drafted and passed the Energy Policy Act of 1992, that was signed by President Bush. The Department's programs to develop and deploy alternative fuels have been expanded since the Energy Policy Act was signed and we are making good progress."

1277. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 77.
"Recent improvements in the technologies used for locating and characterizing petroleum resources could have a stabilizing influence on the world oil market. In particular, 3-D seismic technology is so much more accurate than the older 2-D methods in finding new deposits, in assessing their commercial viability, and in guiding the most efficient field development strategy, that considerably less investment is required in many areas of the world to bring new sources of supply to the market."

1278. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 12.
"The high price of oil charged by sellers with market power will trigger measures to conserve oil and efforts to find energy alternatives. but these measures and efforts will be natural outcomes of market forces; additional government policies to control oil imports on these grounds would be wastefully duplicative."

1279. William Peirce (Prof., Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 260.
"If the Middle East remains stable enough to export oil, the real price of oil will remain stable well into the twenty-first century. This will certainly put a crimp in plans to extend the range of applicability of the various energy sources reviewed in this chapter. It will also mean that new nuclear fission plants will not be initiated in the United States and coal will not enjoy the robust growth that has sometimes been forecast for the industry. If the Middle East becomes so preoccupied with war or revolution that the flow of oil dwindles, then all of the other possibilities will come into their own.

117

1280. Douglas Bohi (Staff, Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 79.
"The decline in oil consumption in the industrial countries reflects both improved energy efficiency and the switch to nonoil fuels. The share of oil in total energy consumption in the OECD countries has declined, and this represents a reversal of the trend established in the decades before 1973 ."

1281. Michael Linn (Pres., Meridian Exploration Corp.) in HSE HRGS: COMMITTEE WAYS & MEANS, July 31, 96 (Online. Nexis, 3/15/97), 1.
"The worldwide basis of U.S. taxation as applied to the oil industry creates competitive disadvantages. As discussed, the U.S. foreign tax credit limitations tend to increase the risk of double taxation in multiple jurisdictions. U.S. tax policy that singles out oil companies for adverse tax treatment is inappropriate, potentially detrimental to the economy and adversely impacts the competitiveness of U.S. oil and gas companies in the world market."

1282. Michael Linn (Pres., Meridian Exploration Corp.) in HSE HRGS: COMMITTEE WAYS & MEANS, July 3 I, 96 (Online. Nexis. 3/I 5/97). 1.
"Taxes on the oil and gas industry. have evolved and have become increasingly punitive over the last several years. In fact. a 1995 survey of independent oil and gas producers found that the effective tax rate for the industry is 20 percent greater than other industries (when state and local taxes are added in, the percentage jumps three points)."

1283. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK. Open U.). RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. 96. 423.
"Among the advantages of levying VAT on domestic fuel are that it is easy to collect and should encourage many households to invest in energy conservation, improved efficiency and perhaps renewables. The disadvantages are that it penalizes poorer households who pay higher proportions of their income on energy and cannot afford energy conservation/efficiency investments; and that it applies equally to all fuels irrespective of carbon content and therefore does not particularly favor renewables.'

1284. Pietro S. Nivola (Sr. Fellow. Brookings last.). THE EXTRA MILE. 95, 5.
"These dangers, and the efficacy of gasoline taxation in lessening them, can be debated. Following the UN Conference on Environment and Development (Rio Earth Summit)in 1992, the United States committed itself to lowering carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Additional taxes on automotive fuels would be a modest step, not a giant stride. toward honoring that commitment. Assuming that global warming is a threat (an open question), even quadrupling the present U.S. gasoline tax would have a small effect. If effluents from the U.S. transportation sector are adding approximately 7 percent to the earth's accumulation of carbon dioxide, and if a 50-cents-a-gallon tax brought about a 12 percent reduction in transport fuel combustion the immediate worldwide reduction in CO2 would be less than 1 percent."

1285. Pietro S. Nivola (St. Fellow, Brookings lnst.). THE EXTRA MILE. 95, 5.
"The relentless growth of automotive travel and traffic appears to be largely responsible for the failure of several American cities to lower the levels of carbon monoxide and ozone in their air sheds. A national gasoline tax, though helpful, is not the best solution to this problem. In theory, a combination of congestion pricing on urban roads and special pollution taxes would be more appropriate and equitable than a levy that charges motorists who drive in rural areas in the middle of the night the same fee as peak-hour users of congested facilities in a zone with polluted air."

1286. Pietro S. Nivola (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Inst.), THE EXTRA MILE. 95, 16-7.
"The case against this price adjustment, and for renewing CAFE controls instead, is often buttressed by pessimistic predictions of how a higher fuel tax would affect the U.S. economy. In 1988, for instance, defenders of the regulator approach could point to a much-publicized study commissioned by the American Automobile Association. It concluded that a hypothetical 30-cent gas tax would promptly reduce gross national product by $30 billion, throw more than a half million persons out of work. raise the consumer price index by a full percentage point. and lower the nation's personal savings rate by nearly 8 percent."

1287. John DeCicco (Sr. Assn., Am. Council Energy-Efficient Eco.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 209.
"Although there is uncertainty in the response, even the most optimistic suggest at least a doubling of fuel prices would be needed. On the one hand, price levels in excess of $3.00 per gallon would be on a par with those of most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and therefore need not be considered unreasonable if phased in. On the other hand, achieving such price levels would entail a truly radical change in U.S. taxation policy, amounting to a transfer equivalent to about one-third of present personal income tax revenues. Much smaller tax increases, on the order of $.10 per gallon or less, as recently discussed, fall inside an area of great uncertainty of response; although such small increases might have some tiny (probably unobservable) effect on travel demand. It is most likely that their effect on fuel economy would be nil."

1288. John DeCicco (St. Assn., Am. Council Energy-Efficient Eco.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 194.
"These analyses strongly suggest that energy taxes amounting to less than $.10 per gallon, as recently proposed, will have no effect on fleet average fuel economy. Although some economists differ wit this view, many noneconomists are likely to agree with it as a matter of common sense. The effect of small gasoline tax increases is almost surely limited to the smaller travel demand response."

1289. Frank Munger (Staff) in KNOXVILLE-NEWS-SENTINEL, Sept. 2~ 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), BI.
"In the U.S., for whatever reason, we don't put so high a priority on energy issues as European and Japan," Saltmarsh said. "1 really do believe it's a mistake in my view of the long-term energy options. There are very, very few of them.' The world's dependence on fossil fuels 'is almost total,' he said, and almost any move away from that dependence has significant barriers or limitations."

1290. Douglas Bohi (Stall', Resources for the Future) et al., THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SECURITY, 96, 79.
"Total world oil consumption has increased by less than 10 percent from 1973 to 1994, and it actually fell between 1979 and 1994 in response to high oil prices. The same experience holds even more strongly for the United States and for the group of twenty-four industrial countries that comprise the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).'

1291. Michael P. Walsh (Envir. Spec., Arlington, Va.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 70.
"Technologies such as closed loop three way catalysts have been developed which have the potential to reduce substantially vehicle emissions in a cost effective manner. Application of these state of the art technologies can improve vehicle performance and driveability, reduce maintenance and is consistent with improved fuel economy. Evaporative controls are also readily available and cost effective. The effectiveness of state of the art emissions controls can be improved by in use vehicle directed programs such as inspection and maintenance, recall and warranty."

1292. Michael P. Walsh (Envir. Spec., Arlington, Va.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 54.
"There is inevitable uncertainty associated with predicting the specific technology that manufacturers will apply to future vehicles to comply with the mandates of the LEV program. Historical evidence demonstrates that strong regulatory requirements create a favorable environment for technological breakthroughs. For example, in the 5-yr. period following the adoption of the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments, unleaded fuel use, catalytic converter technology, and electronic control mechanisms quickly became the norm. It is likely that compliance with the LEV emission standards will result in the development of new technology that is not fully accounted for in this analysis."

1293. Michael P. Walsh (Envir. Spec., Arlington, Va.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 47.
"Beyond the vehicles themselves, EPA has issued a rule limiting the sulfur contents of diesel fuel to 0.05 wt. % after October I, 1993. This decision not only directly lower particulate (sulfur) emissions but also paves the way for the use of catalytic control technology for diesel particulate since it reduces the concern over excessive sulfate emissions."

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1294. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 9-10.
"Additionally, the cost impacts of air pollution have been studied, producing at least the beginning of a consensus on the question of adverse health effects upon other drivers, along with the young, elderly, handicapped, and other sensitive populations. Given the revenue surplus contributed by auto users, it is quite possible that the cost of this externality is already being paid for. Estimates of the health costs of air pollution upon all of society (excluding theoretical harms like global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and so on) are in the $7-billion range nationwide."

1295. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 16.
"To return to MacKenzie's 17percent group, we see that about 87 percent of these people are themselves auto users, bearing 87 percent of the externalized costs on average (actually, as previously discussed, the lion's share of tax revenues come from auto users, while non-users tend to occupy lower tax brackets and pay a lower share). If one assumes that the actual cost values that WRI used were correct (which is a dubious assumption, as we'll discuss), then only about $6.6 billion per year (13 percent of the total indirectly borne costs) is the result of impacts by auto users on non-auto users. Even this estimate is probably high, since WRI uses possibly inflated estimates of harm, such as survey-based estimates of the cost of grief. or the value of a human life as a function of lost earning potential."

1296. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst. Reason Fndn.). DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95. 16.
"Estimates of subsidies to auto use are often based upon uninspected assumptions regarding who constitutes an auto user and who does not. When defined in a common-sensical way, we know that out of any group of 100 people, around 87 percent (on a household basis, it's 88 percent) rely on automobile transportation for a significant part of their total mobility, making them. even when on foot, an 'auto-user' in the same sense that someone who eats meat 87 percent of the time remains an omnivore even when dining on a vegetarian meal But this isn't how most authors in the auto-cost literature define an auto user. Instead, these authors make a rather different assumption: that the moment individuals step out of an automobile, they cease to be auto users in any broader sense of the term. By this logic. our omnivore could claim vegetarian status after taking one bite of a carrot in the midst of a steak dinner."

1297. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 25, 7.
"Given that these adjustments retain quite a few worst-case estimates, it seems reasonable to conclude that auto users are at least paying their own way and indeed may be subsidizing others through the tax revenues that they contribute which exceed the costs they impose on society. While changes might be made in the methods of assessing and collecting auto use fees to better reflect individual user impacts and benefits, there does not seem to be any justification for raising the overall cost of auto use based on claims of huge auto-use externalities."

1298. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95. 16-7.
"Aside from the definitional aspects described above, an added difficulty is the subjectivity which attends attempts to quantify such losses. Automobile accidents are harms by one person against other persons. They are not harms by individuals against 'society,' nor are they harms by 'society' against individuals.."

1299. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 17.
"According to Miller and Moffat, for example, the costs only begin there. Miller and Moffat propose that the driver's death imposes still greater costs upon society in the form of 'output loss.' Output loss is an economic construct which refers to a suite of intangibles such as the grief of relatives and the deceased drivers' unrealized income and tax contributions to the government. There are a host of problems with this concept. First, it tries to put concrete cost values upon such intangibles as grief, which is a notoriously slippery endeavor (and easily exaggerated). Second, it essentially asserts that neither the person who was killed, nor those family members who voluntarily shared the risks as well as the benefits of the family's reliance on a private vehicle mode of transportation bear these costs themselves. Third, it double counts--the loss of the driver's expected revenues to the family is paid for by the family, but is also then tacked onto the bill presented to other drivers as well."

1300. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE. Dec., 95, 13.
"Nor does noise, as an externality claim, bear up well when evaluated in light of the other criteria set forth above: the ability of the individual auto user to control the phenomenon is limited (though auto-user revenue does pay for sound barriers and other forms of noise abatement already), each automobile is different in the level of noise it puts out, rendering allocation of impact highly impractical, and it is unclear that any other form of equivalent mobility would be any quieter."

1301. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 13.
"The methods used to define noise as an environmental extemality of auto use are based exclusively upon the use of housing values as a surrogate measure for people's valuation of quiet environments. However. the numerous factors which comprise housing values render such simplistic models questionable at best."

1302. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 14-5.
"In the absence of a demonstrable third-party harm, there is no significant externality imposed by the disposal of auto-generated wastes, most of which are recycled anyway."

1303. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 14.
"Regulations controlling the handling of waste are extensive. span national, state, and local levels, and are already designed to protect both human health and property values. The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) and a profusion of state and local health and safety statutes establish guidelines for safe waste disposal virtually from cradle to grave. Violations of these regulations are remediated through legal action, fines, and restitution given to those who have been negatively impacted in violation of the law."

1304. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 15.
"Social extemalities are far harder to define, quantify, and attribute than are environmental externalities, which makes them considerably easier to distort and inflate. Many social externality costs attributed to private vehicle use are based on some assumption of how less we might pay if society conformed to some planner's utopian vision."

1305. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 10-11.
"Auto-use impacts upon water sources are rarely quantified in the auto-cost literature, but are generally predicted to be extremely high when they are quantified. It is a virtual certainty that auto use has adverse impacts on coastal waters, surface waters. and ground waters through the contamination of rainfall runoff. However, other criteria necessary for supporting additional charges to auto users for the remediation of such pollution are lacking. Quantification of the extent to which it is automobiles (rather than other activities) creating water pollution do not yet exist. Hanson observes that such estimates may 'contain significant uncertainty."'

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1306. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec.. 95, I 1.
"It is quite conceivable that ozone-induced crop damage is being offset by the positive effects of automobile-generated carbon dioxide on those same crops. Recent studies have indicated that the increased carbon dioxide produced by automobiles might actually lead to increased productivity of cropland. If this is substantiated, would it be considered a subsidy to the farmer from the auto user that required recompense through a tax on farm products."

1307. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 1.
"Many claimed auto-use externalities fail to satisfy the criteria which would legitimize hiking the cost of auto use. While focusing on numerical estimates, most auto-use uncritical with regard to the questions of whether claimed externalities are qualitatively established to exist, quantifiable, allocable according to automobile use and behavior, and recoverable without causing greater distortions in mode and fuel choices than already exist."

1308. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 24.
"This dismissive tone of automobility benefits (both internal and external) is common in the auto-cost literature. Miller and Moffat in their 80-page report, mention the benefits of automobile transportation in the first paragraph of their executive summary and then ignore the idea through the rest of their report. MacKenzie gives the idea of automobility benefits similarly short shrill, though the WRI team are more generous in their one introductory paragraph: 'Affordable motor vehicles and inexpensive fuel have brought American car owners freedoms and opportunities that few other countries can even hope to match and that were scarcely imaginable just a few decades ago..."'

1309. Kenneth Green (Sr. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95, 23.
"The auto-cost literature spares no effort to identify and estimate costs imposed upon society by automobile users. However, it is rather reticent about acknowledging the numerous internal and external benefits bestowed upon both individuals and society by auto use. The static economic view used as a touchstone by most researchers in the auto-cost field produces a system which goes to great extremes in searching for costs that auto use imposes on individuals and society---counting diversions from general revenues down to the last dime. while steadfastly refusing to give auto users credit for their contributions to that same general revenue stream."

1310. Kenneth Green (St. Pol. Analyst, Reason Fndn.), DEFENDING AUTOMOBILITY: A CRITICAL EXAM. OF THE ENVIR. & SOCIAL COSTS OF AUTO USE, Dec., 95.23.
"Like the pervasive blind-eye turned to governmental mismanagement of the transportation system, the vast majority of the auto-cost literature completely discounts the sales taxes paid for automobiles automobile parts, service and accessories in their revenue calculations. As we will see later. this $22-billion omission is enough to swamp. in most cases, any conservatively calculated auto-cost deficit estimate."

131I. Douglas Ogden (Atty.. Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY. Jan., 96, 44.
"Solutions to these transportation problems are within reach; what is needed is the political will to tackle them. Internal combustion engines are becoming increasingly efficient. Federal car standards have doubled automobile fuel efficiency, saving nearly 3 million barrels of oil every day. Programs are helping retire older, more polluting vehicles from the road. while emissions-reduction technologies in new vehicles are being improved."

1312. F. M. Black (Mobile Source Emissions Rsrch., U.S. EPA) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 230-1.
"The amended Clean Air Act also calls for regulation of the composition of gasoline in specified nonattainment areas by limiting the volumetric fractions of benzene, requiring a specific amount of oxygen in the fuel (2% during ozone nonattainment periods and 2.7% during CO nonattainment periods, probably by addition of ethanol, methyl-tert-butyl ether, or ethyl-tert-butyl ether), (emphasis in original) and requiring reduction of volatility. By 1995, ozone-forming volatile organic compounds and toxic compounds (the aggregate of benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and polycyclic organic matter) will be reduced 15% by gasoline reformulation from the emissions characteristic of 1990 model year vehicles using national average unleaded gasoline, without concurrent increase in NOx emissions. By 2000, the required reductions in volatile organic compounds and toxic compounds will be increased to 25%."

1313. Michael P. Walsh (Envir. Spec., Arlington, Va.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 45.
"Just as Europe was moving toward parity with U.S. standards, the United States, and to a much greater extent California, embarked on a course that could prove just as momentous to the 1990s as the 1970 Clean Air Act was to the 1970s and 1980s. Many significant changes to the federal motor vehicle emission control program will result from the passage of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, including the following: the design, manufacture, and certification of new vehicles to lower tailpipe and evaporative emission standards, enhanced inspection and maintenance programs for seriously polluted areas; more durable pollution control systems; and the use of less polluting gasoline and alternative fuels."

1314. Michael P. Walsh (Envir. Spec., Arlington, Va.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 53.
"Some important elements of the CARB program as it existed in early 1990 have in broad terms been mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 to apply to federal vehicles across the country. In regard to vehicle technology, the only comparable period of emissions and fuel technological push was following the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments when within 5 yr unleaded fuel went from virtually zero to being the norm for all new cars, catalytic converters, which previously had virtually no real-world experience, were introduced in four out of five new cars, and the electronics revolution transformed the control mechanisms of such critical emission control components as spark and air fuel management systems."

1315. Michael P. Walsh (Envir. Spec., Arlington, Va.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 369-70.
"In addition to more stringent standards for cars, trucks, and buses, the Amendments will require substantial modification to conventional fuels, provide greater opportunity for the introduction of alternative fuels (but without mandating them), and extend the manufacturers' responsibility for compliance with auto standards in use to 10 years or 160,000 km (100,000 miles)."

1316. Amory B. Lovins (Energy Rsrch. Spec., Rocky Mntn. Inst.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 1385.
"The September 29, 1993, agreement between President Clinton and the chief executives of Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors. establishing the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, changed all that. Drawing an explicit analogy to the Apollo program that put people on the moon, it created a joint effort to do something easier and more important: it pledged best efforts, by the Big Three automakers and federal government in cooperation, to produce a tripled-efficiency prototype in 10 years. Setting this goal has already led to two highly desirable results: creating a 'leapfrog mentality' that has brought Detroit's most imaginative engineers out of the woodwork, and fostering useful technology transfer from military and National Laboratory practice into the civilian automotive sector."

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1317. Paul McCarthy (Rsrch. Economist, Ford Motor Co.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 259.
"The Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), a new technology initiative announced by President Bill Clinton on September 29. 1993, is the basis for an innovative program joining the federal government and USCAR in a unique research and development effort representing a fundamental change from the manner in which government and industry have interacted in the past. The initiative is intended to address the nation's transportation energy goals through informed cooperation, rather than through confrontation in a political and regulatory process that emphasizes adversarial interactions between industry and government. This partnership between the government and industry will permit private and public resources to be systematically focused on achieving major technological breakthroughs, possibly making traditional technology-forcing regulatory interventions irrelevant."

1318. Paul McCarthy (Rsrch. Economist, Ford Motor Co.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 266.
"Cooperation between industry and government is impeded by many barriers, including poor communication, differences in culture, legal constraints. and genuinely divergent objectives. All of these barriers are evident as PNGV evolves from a concept to a multifaceted research program. The government/industry cooperation emerging from the PNGV program does not exist in a vacuum. The present administration has committed to reducing the growth of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is actively seeking to pursue this goal. Indeed the PNGV program was initiated to demonstrate and expand the limits of technical improvements in vehicle efficiency that could help reduce GHG emissions in the future. The benefits of the PNGV program will arise over a period of years from the successful transfer and joint development of commercially viable new vehicle technologies."

1319. Daniel Sperling (Dir., lnst. of Transportation Studies, U. CA-Davis). ISSUES IN SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 29.
"On September 29, 1993, President Clinton and the chief executive officers of Ford, Chrysler, and General Motors (the 'Big Three') announced the creation of what was to become known as the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). The primary goal of the partnership was to develop a vehicle that achieves up to three times the fuel economy of today's cars--about 80 miles per gallon (mpg)--with no sacrifice in performance, size, cost, emissions, or safety. The project would cost a billion dollars or more. split fifty-fifty between government and industry over a 10-year period. Engineers were to select the most promising technologies by 1997, create a concept prototype by 2000, and build a production prototype by 2004."

1320. Paul McCarthy (Rsrch. Economist. Ford Motor Co.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 259.
"Both government and industry bring unique strengths to this project. The industry partners have the capability to determine which product concepts have the highest probability of success in the market; further. their expertise in mass production for domestic and international markets is essential to convert any advanced technical idea into a practical product. Federal agencies have access to certain types of advanced technologies and research resources not generally available to private firms."

1321. William White (Dep. Sec., Dept. Energy) in HSE HRGS: FUTURE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS, June 6, 95, 11.
"Our Alternative Fuels Utilization budget. exclusive of deployment funding, has grown from $20.7 million in 1993 to $22.9 million in 1995. Our fiscal year 1996 request is for $20.2 million. Developing these technologies, testing them, and sharing our findings with industry and consumers are important elements of our alternative fuels program strategy. Dependable vehicle technology is one of the foundations for the expanded use of alternative fuels vehicles required by the Energy Policy Act."

1322. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 143.
"Department of Energy R&D support of these technologies amounted to nearly $60 million in FY 1993. Research on fuel cells, hybrids, and advanced batteries increased 25 percent in FY 1994. As part of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles program, total spending on fuel cell technologies for light-duty vehicles could total more than $440 million through 2003."

1323. Paul Komor & Andrew Moyad, U.S. Office of Technology Assessment & U.S. EPA) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 525.
"Several key factors will influence transport energy use in the future. First, alternative fuels (including electricity, ethanol, hydrogen, methanol, and natural gas) are currently being evaluated for both passenger and freight transport. Although alternative fuels in transportation are not widely used at present, their use may increase in the near future, particularly with growing concerns about urban air quality. For example, beginning in the year 1998, 2% of new vehicles available for sale in California are required to e zero tailpipe-emission vehicles."

1324. William White (Dep. See., Dept. Energy) in HSE HRGS: FUTURE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS, June 6, 95, 14.
"There is already tremendous momentum toward success. When serious efforts to introduce alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) were first begun in 1990, only two different combinations of AFV models and alternative fuel types were available; by 1996, AFV customers will be able to choose from approximately 12 different model/fuel type combinations. In addition, by 1996 the refueling infrastructure for alternative fuels will have increased by approximately 300 percent since 1993."

1325. Paul McCarthy (Rsrch. Economist, Ford Motor Co.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 257-8.
"Eight of the thirteen cooperative research initiatives undertaken to date are directly or indirectly related to improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles. In some instances, government participation in these efforts is contemplated or taking place, either as a source of leveraged finance or directly in the form of active participation by technical laboratories and government researchers. By far the largest federal involvement has been in the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC), which in 1994 had a budget of $265 million to support grants to develop important storage battery technology."

1326. Anthony Finizza (Chief Eco.. Atlantic Richfield Co.), BUS. ECONOMICS, Oct., 96, 10.
"The oil industry has been a target of environmental legislation and regulation. The Clean Air Act, passed in 1970, and amended recently, has established ambient air standards that have led to regulations for tailpipe emissions and volatility of gasoline. Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. the Environmental Protection Agency has issued regulations that delineate clean fuel requirements and vehicle emission standards. Further, other laws such s the Energy Policy Act of 1992 have mandated alternative vehicle sales. These and other rules have added a significant amount of costs to the end product and have imposed sharp costs increases on the refining industry. A recent American Petroleum Institute study cataloged the total environmental costs to be borne by the oil industry. By the end of the century, total annual costs could reach as high as $67 billion, a number greater than the present capital expenditures of the refining industry."

1327.  ETHANOL REPORT (Renewable Fuels Assn.), Jan. 16, 97, 4. 
"Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT), a percentage of the federal government's new vehicle purchases must be alternative fueled vehicles (AFV). The percentages are 33% in 1997, 50% in 1998, and 75% thereafter. President Clinton signed an Executive Order in December recommitting the federal government to these purchase requirements."

1328. Daniel Lashof (St. Scientist, Nat'l. Resources Defense Council) in TECHNOLOGY REV., Feb., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 62.
"How can we ensure that hybrid electric or comparable vehicles actually make it onto the road and that, in the meantime, conventional vehicles become more efficient? The answer given by many economists and the automakers is hefty gasoline tax hikes. However desirable this approach might be in theory, an exclusive focus on gasoline taxes is a political dead-end; perceived disparities in the way the tax would affect different regions and income classes, along with fierce lobbying by the oil industry, make European-style gasoline taxes virtually unimaginable here. What's more. gasoline taxes are a relatively weak lever for getting new technology onto the road."

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1329. David Gushee & Salvadore Laz2ari (Energy Rsrch. Spec., Congressional Rsrch. Serv.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 616.
"Similarly, at the state level, motor vehicle fuel taxation has been driven by the twin needs of revenue generation and highway infrastructure development. Motor fuels are taxed primarily on a gallonage basis without regard to energy content. Until recently, and even then only a few states, conscious stimulation of alternative motor fuels has not been a policy goal. In most of the states where stimulation has been a goal, ethanol has been the primary beneficiary, with its use mainly as an additive to gasoline rather than as an alternative fuel."

1330. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 399.
"The problem with gas taxes is that they would have to be very high to force efficiency improvements on the order of 10 mpg, a 30 percent to 35 percent increase over the current level of 28 mpg. As casual evidence, European cars are about as efficient as American cars although gas prices are at least double and, in some cases, four times as high. Greene estimates a maximum price elasticity of mpg of 0.21, meaning that a I percent increase in price leads to a 0.21 percent increase in fuel economy. This suggests that prices would have to rise from $1.36 per gallon to $2.15 per gallon to achieve only a 10 percent increase in miles per gallon."

1331.  THE ECONOMIST, May 25.96 (Online. Nexis, 3/I 5/97). 86. 
"California's 'zero-emission' statute has been concentrating the minds of manufacturers for several years. It was introduced in 1990, with the aim of making 2% of vehicles sold in that state exhaust-free (i.e., in effect, electric) by 1998. This is now regarded as unrealistic, and the statute has been put into limbo."

1332. Ed Kondis (V.P., Mobil's Mid West GulfCoast Bus. Group) in HSE HRGS: FUTURE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS, June 6, 95, 50.
"Displacement of oil demand through the mandated use of AFV's will not necessarily reduce imports. The preliminary results of DOE's own assessment of the feasibility of replacing up to 30% of petroleum-based transportation fuels bears this out. DOE's results indicate that if any significant displacement occurs in the transportation sector. it is likely to come from imported (emphasis in original) liquefied petroleum gas or imported (emphasis in original) methanol."

1333. Jim Anselmi (Mgr., Auto Div., Port Authority of NY/NJ) in HSE HRGS: FUTURE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS, June 6, 95.
"Purchase mandates have not eliminated the barriers to use of AFV's. Mandates have not reduced the cost of vehicles, built any more fueling stations or increased this range of vehicles.'

1334. James Rallo (V.P., PHH Vehicle Mgt. Services) in HSE HRGS: FUTURE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS. June 6, 95.67.
"EPACT sought to create a market for alternative vehicle fuels through a command and control mechanism forcing certain fleets to acquire alternative fuel vehicles. Ironically, because fleet vehicles are better maintained and newer than driver-owned vehicles. they tend to be more energy efficient and cleaner burning than the general vehicle population. More importantly, fleet vehicles represent less than 5 percent of the vehicle population. Despite this, EPACT incorrectly assumed that targeting fleets as the initial market for the use of alternative fuels would lead directly to alternative fuel use by the general public."

1335. Laurie Michaelis (Staff, Envir. Directorate, OCED) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 108.
"Nevertheless, regulators may run into difficulties if they aim to achieve substantial market penetration of alternative fuels through regulation. Experience with the introduction of unleaded gasoline indicates that, when the new fuel is more expensive than the traditional fuel, drivers are likely to go out of their way to avoid using it. Although purchase mandates are effective in initiating a new technology to the market, new fuels will only be successful when they are cheaper to use than conventional fuels or when tax differentials are used to make them cheaper."

1336. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 400.
"Applying our method for evaluating clean technologies to fuel /witching suggests that the opportunities for successful government promotion in this .field are essentially limited to R&D, subsidy elimination, and some targeted technology-forcing regulation. Because there are no clear environmental winners with the potential for near-term cost competitiveness, aggressive government action to promote one fuel over another at this point is as likely to foreclose as open up attractive development paths."

1337. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 399-400.
"Feebates appear to be a better alternative to high gas taxes for encouraging a market-driven shift to fuel efficiency. However. by lowering the cost of fuel-efficient automobiles, Feebates might increase the growth in vehicle miles. In addition, setting the right feebate schedule to get precisely a 10-mpg increase in fuel efficiency would require some experimentation."

1338. Lee Schipper (St. Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley Lab.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95. 237.
"Taxes on automobile value (or other characteristics) have only a small impact on fuel use and that fuel prices affect fuel intensity the most. distance driven somewhat less, and car ownership only weakly. The conclusion from that investigation, which is reinforced here, is that where taxes are used to offset the generation of extemalities, the taxes should be applied to attributes of motoring that directly affect the externalities. Only a small fraction of the revenue raised from the taxes studied here is related to externalities or earmarked for roads or other transportation services. This means that the taxation of cars and motoring, however large or small. is not economically efficient relative to either externalities or public goods associated with cars and motoring.'

1339. Frank R. Field 111 & Joel P. Clark (Prof., Materials Sci.. & Engineering, MIT) in TECHNOLOGY REV., Jan., 97, 36.
"The incremental application of the broad spectrum of advanced materials technologies available today can yield real benefits in efficiency, utility, and performance without incurring insupportable costs. Although relatively unexciting and unglamorous, incremental strategies for vehicle weight reduction are the only credible approach for beginning the transition to an economical, fuel efficient vehicle."

1340. J. Richard Shanebrook (Prof., Engineering, Union Col.-NY) in TECHNOLOGY REV. May/June, 96, 6.
"Several important issues raised by the authors deserve comprehensive analysis before Evs are routinely accepted as a solution to air pollution. If the electrical energy for Ev's is produced by power plants fun on fossil fuels, these vehicles may be larger polluters than conventional autos. The Union of Concerned Scientists found that the average auto emits about one pound of CO2 per mile driven Experience with EVs at Brookhaven National Laboratory shows that EVs are responsible for roughly 1.6 pounds of CO2 emissions at the power plant for every mile driven ."

1341. Michael Wang (Staff, Transport. Rsrch.. Angonne Nat'l. Lab.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 121.
"Emission reduction rates by AFV type for some pollutants are subject to great uncertainty. For example, EVs can increase or decrease NOx emissions, depending upon the types of powerplants used for generating electricity for EVs."

1342. William Baarschers (Prof., Chem., Lakehead U., Canada), ECO-FACTS & EC0-F1CTION, 96, I 18.
"Countless media reports describe the electric automobile as clean, while no questions are asked about where the electricity comes from. California's legislation requiring the availability of electric cars in the near future will simply export a significant pollution source from the streets of Los Angeles to the smoke stacks in the countryside. Whether the energy used came from dirty coal or from 'clean' nuclear fuel is, in the minds of many, not a question. The benefits for the city dweller are the removal of the typical big city smog and the easier point source control of pollution at the power plant."

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1343. Hugh Wilson (Staff, Nat'l. Conf. of St. Legislatures) et al., ALTERNATIVE FUELS, Mar., 96, 14-5.
"Although EV technology advances have increased vehicle range and power, performance remains significantly behind the internal combustion' engine. EVs often are touted as 'zero emission vehicles' and, in fact. are classified as such by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Although EVs do not have any tail-pipe emissions, the power plants that charge them may have increased emissions, particularly if the plants bum some fossil fuels such as high sulfur coal."

1344. Till Mundzek (Staff) in THE EUROPEAN, Feb. 20. 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 5.
"The idea that electric cars are more environmentally friendly than conventional automobiles is a myth, according to a new German survey, writes Till Mundzeck. The world's most comprehensive scientific study of electric cars found that though the so-called 'green' vehicles have a clear advantage on a local and regional level, they consume up to four times as much energy per kilometer than internal combustion engine vehicles. Under normal conditions, electric cars contribute ore to the greenhouse effect per kilometer driven than conventional cars, the survey says, because the energy needed to recharge the batteries comes mainly from fossil fuels."

1345. Till Mundzek (Staff) in THE EUROPEAN, Feb. 20. 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 5.
"Only if their batteries are charged mainly by electricity from renewable energy sources or nuclear power plants do the electric cars cause less carbon dioxide and its equivalents to be emitted into the atmosphere than combustion engines."

1346. H. Grabl & S. Bakan (Prof., Meteorology, Max-Planck Inst. of Meteorology-Germany) in HYDROGEN & OTHER ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR GROUND & AIR TRANS., 95, 30-1.
"The electric power is partly absorbed in the wires before it reaches the user and is therefore lost. These wire losses contribute to the energy consumption in Germany with a few percent only. Batteries and accumulators are made of various combinations of rare elements, some of which are very dangerous for the environment. Lead accumulators or cadmium in batteries are prominent examples. Huge amounts of these materials have to be produced. handled and dumped if considerable energy amounts are to be transported. As this is too expensive in comparison with most alternatives batteries and accumulators will always be restricted to niche applications and, thus, to rather small energy portions."

1347.  Excerpts from GAO Report 8/17/95 in ENERGY. Nov., 95, 27. 
"The General Accounting Office (GAO) has just completed a review of the status of development of advanced batteries for electric vehicles. Among the conclusions are that: The feasibility of long-term goals for advanced batteries is uncertain. while more achievable mid-term goals otter limited benefits. On the one hand. advanced batteries meeting USABC's long-term goals have not yet been proven technically feasible. On the other hand, batteries meeting the consortium's mid-term goals. while potentially achievable, will not enable EVs to offer performance or costs comparable to those of gasoline-powered vehicles and therefore offer limited market potential."

1348.  Excerpts from GAO Report 8/17/95 in ENERGY. Nov., 95, 29. 
"Advanced batteries that would make electric vehicles fully competitive with gasoline-powered vehicles have not yet been proven to be feasible."

1349. Peter Gordon & Harry W. Richardson (Profs., Urban & Regional Planning, & Economics & Planning U. of S. CA), THE CASE AGAINST ELECTRICAL-VEHICLE MANDATES IN CA, May, 95, 15.
"Even if the number of EVs in operation grows, the reduction in emissions will be limited because EVs are not capable of fully replacing the vehicle miles traveled by gasoline-powered automobiles because of their limited range, using current and anticipated technologies."

1350. Peter Gordon & Harry W. Richardson (Profs., Urban & Regional planning, & Economics & Planning U. of S. CA), THE CASE AGAINST ELECTRICAL-VEHICLE MANDATES IN CA, May, 95, I.
"EVs will be expensive, yet short on what consumers prize most: range and power (witness the recent surge of 'utility' vehicle sales). Massive subsidies and/or cost-shifts would be required that would have depressive effects on the California economy (including higher energy costs statewide). Taxpayers and/or utility ratepayers would also have to pay for new refueling infrastructure. In addition, it is not clear that EV maintenance costs will be below that of conventional autos. If consumers avoid EVs for any of these reasons, and keep their old cars longer, air quality gains will be lost."

1351. Peter Gordon & Harry W. Richardson (Profs., Urban & Regional Planning, & Economics & Planning U. of S. CA), THE CASE AGAINST ELECTRICAL-VEHICLE MANDATES IN CA, May, 95, 19.
"Although air pollution remains a problem in many metropolitan areas, and automobiles are a major source of this pollution, it is very doubtful that EV mandates are a cost-effective approach. There are many more productive means of reducing automobile emissions, including efforts to accelerate the scrapping of older, polluting vehicles, mobile emissions testing, improvements in emissions technology (e.g. pre-warmed catalytic converters). cleaner fuels (e.g. reformulated gasoline), and AFVs other than electric-powered."

1352. A. F. Burke (Rsrchr., Nat'l. Engineering Lab) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97. 985.
"The main disadvantage of electric vehicles in the minds of many consumers and the auto companies is their limited range before it is necessary to recharge the batteries, which in most instances takes a number of hours. Even though the daily travel of most vehicle owners on the vast majority of days is much less than the present range of electric vehicles. most consumers are reluctant to purchase a limited range vehicle. which could not be used to meet all their needs. This is especially true if. as is likely when electric vehicles are first marketed, their price is higher than that of conventional ICE vehicles."

1353. Jay Keller (Prog. Mgr., Sandia Nat'l. Lab) in HSE HRGS: COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, July 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), I.
"Other countries have already begun to position themselves for the move to a hydrogen-based energy economy. Through the hydrogen and PNGV programs, the United States has an opportunity to establish a predominant international position in hydrogen-fueled vehicle technologies."

1354. Anthony Finizza (Chief Eco., Atlantic Richfield Co.), BUS. ECONOMICS, Oct., 96, 8.
"A number of automobile manufacturers have announced expansive programs to develop electric vehicles. More importantly, many auto manufacturers are working on a nonbattery based powerplant, the fuel cell. This innovation. the use of hydrogen to produce electricity, could prove to be the preferred form of power for these electric vehicles when they become economic. There is considerable research being undertaken to produce the hydrogen for the fuel cell vehicle by means of an on-board processor that would convert existing hydrocarbon fuel into hydrogen with lower emissions than the best gasoline engine available today. Additionally, the system would have two to three times the energy efficiency as today's vehicles."

1355. Christopher Flavin (V. Pres., World Watch Inst.) in VITAL SIGNS. 96, 50.
"In 1995, manufacturers announced plans to boost fuel-cell performance and scale up production. Production costs are likely to follow the same steep downward path blazed by cellular phones and personal computers."

1356. Jim Ritter (Staff) in, CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, May 19, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 30.
"Thirty years and $1 billion in research later, fuel cells still are much more expensive than fossil fuels. For example, each CTA fuel-cell bus will cost $1.4 million to buy and $1 per mile to operate. A regular diesel bus costs $250,000 and 30 cents a mile to operate."

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1357. Mike Magnet (Staff), SACRAMENTO BEE, Mar. 13, 97 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), B7.
"An 80-mpg car can be built today, but it would be tiny and expensive. New power sources, such as fuel cells that produce energy from a reaction between hydrogen and oxygen, and the lighter materials needed to boost fuel economy in larger vehicles are far from affordable, Rivard said. The fuel cell alone in Chrysler's futuristic car, unveiled at Detroit's North American International Auto Show in January, would cost 10 times more than today's $3,000 gasoline engine. said Peter Rosenfeld, the company's director of advanced technology planning."

1358.  THE ECONOMIST, May 25, 96 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 86. 
"Existing commercial fuel cells are hand-built for markets such as aerospace, where weight is critical and price matters little. The upshot is that it can cost 500 times as much to generate a given amount of power with a fuel cell as it does with a conventional petrol engine."

1359. Sam Raskin (Calif. Energy Comm.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 441.
"All fuel-cell technologies must overcome financial and utility integration constraints before being effectively deployed."

1360. Sam Raskin (Calif. Energy Comm.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR.. 97, 441.
"All fuel-cell technologies must address substantial research goals for reduced cost and improved performance."

1361. Godfrey Boyle (Dir. Envir. Rsrch.. UK, Open U.). RENEWABLE ENERGY: POWER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 96, 412.
"Fuel cells need further improvements in efficiency and reliability and reductions in cost. before they can compete with conventional internal combustion engines, but many believe these goals are achievable over the next decade or so. They may also be very compatible with intermittent wind and electricity supplies, since their power output can be changed very rapidly. in some cases within fractions of a second."

1362. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 110.
"Fuel cell vehicles running on hydrogen produced from biomass or renewably generated electricity, or alcohol (methanol or ethanol) produced from biomass. are potentially the cleanest and highest performance systems. A decade or more of intensive RD&D remains to be done. however, before their technological and economic feasibility can be fully determined."

1363. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.). THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 144.
"Critics of ethanol, including the EPA. point to its increase in aldehyde emissions and ozone pollution without a significant decrease in imports."

1364. Laurie Michaelis (Mgr.. Envir. Directorate. OCED) in JRNL. OF TRANSPORT ECONOMICS & POLICY, Jan., 95, 76.
"Cars using ethanol produced from maize or wheat can have life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions anywhere in the range from 20 percent to nearly 110 percent of those from cars using gasoline (IEA, 1994b). The upper end of this range is found where maize and wheat are grown in intensive agricultural systems and fermented and distilled in facilities fueled with coal. The lower end of the range could be achieved only if ethanol were produced from maize or wheat grown with very low fertilizer inputs and if the conversion facility were fueled entirely with straw. This is not current practice in ethanol production."

1365. Julian Alston (Prof., Ag. Eco., U. CA-Davis) in RESOURCE & ENERGY ECONOMICS 18, 96. 3.
"The 'new industrial use' for agricultural commodities that has received the lion's share of Federal and State government support, is the production of ethanol from corn. Originally corn-based ethanol was promised to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, improve the U.S. balance of payments, and increase farmer income. In reality, corn-ethanol has had virtually no effect on reducing our dependence on foreign oil nor on the trade deficit, and only a limited effect on farmer income."

1366. Hugh Wilson (Staff, Nat'l. Cone of St. Legislatures) et al.. ALTERNATIVE FUELS, Mar., 96, 14.
"The energy content of ethanol is approximately 66 percent that of gasoline. Approximately 1.6 gallons of ethanol equals one gallon of gasoline. The lower energy content reduces the driving range per tank."

1367. Hugh Wilson (Staff, Nat'l. Conf. of St. Legislatures) et al., ALTERNATIVE FUELS, Mar., 96, 14.
"Water droplets inside a vehicle transporting or using ethanol cause the fuel to separate from gasoline and affect vehicle operations. Fuel storage facilities and transportation vehicles burning ethanol must be kept dry and free of residual water."

1368. Paul Komor & Andrew Moyad, U.S. Office of Technology Assessment & U.S. EPA) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 529.
"Considerable research effort focuses on alternative fuels for transportation. Currently, no fuel is a clear successor to gasoline: some argue that in the future, the light-duty vehicle fleet will use several different fuels, for example, electric vehicles for short urban trips and gasoline for longer trips."

1369. Daniel Sperling (Dir., Inst. Transportation Studies, U. CA-Davis) in ISSUES IN SCI. & TECH., Winter, 96-97, 31.
"Diesel-electric hybrid technology represents only a modest technological step. The automotive industry is already well along in developing advanced diesel engines, similar to what PNGV envisions, for the European market. Production prototypes using hybridized diesel and gasoline engines have already been unveiled by several foreign automakers. including Audi, Daihatsu. lsuzu. Mitsubishi, and Toyota. In fact. Toyota reportedly intends to start selling tens of thousands of hybrid vehicles to the U.S. market in late 1997."

1370.  NY Times Service in DALLAS MORNING NEWS, Mar. 26. 97, 2D. 
"Toyota Motor Corp said Tuesday that it would become the first company to sell a low-polluting hybrid vehicle, with both an electric motor and a gasoline engine, to a mass market. The company, the largest Japanese automaker, said it would begin selling a compact hybrid car with a 1.5-liter engine in Japan this year."

1371. A. F. Burke (Rsrchr., Nat'l. Engineering Lab) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 987.
"Since 1980, a wide variety of series and parallel hybrid vehicles have been built and tested. Some of these vehicles have worked very well indicating that hybrid vehicles having attractive performance, high efficiency, low petroleum usage, and low exhaust emissions could be developed. The level of activity on hybrid vehicles in 1993 is relatively high and is expected to increase even further over the next five years as a result of cooperative programs between DOE and the U.S. automobile companies. These programs are intended to lead to the design and preproduction development of hybrid vehicles that could be marketed by the U.S. auto companies in less than ten years."

1372. Amory Lovins (Dir., Rsrch., Rocky Mt. Inst.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 77-8.
"In September 1993, U.S. automakers and the Clinton administration announced the historic Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) to develop within a decade a prototype car having tripled fuel economy. Yet this seemingly ambitious goal can be far surpassed. Well before 2003, competition, not government mandates, can bring to market cars efficient enough to carry a family coast-to-coast on one tank of fuel. more safely and comfortably than present vehicles, and more cleanly than electric cars plus the powerplants needed to recharge them."

1373. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 139.
"In 1993, DOE initiated a $138-million, five-year program with General Motors, and a $122-million program with Ford, to design and develop prototype hybrid vehicle systems."

1374.  NY Times Service in DALLAS MORNING NEWS, Mar. 26, 97. 2D. 
"Hybrid vehicles significantly reduce emissions compared with gasoline-powered cars but are far more practical than fully electric cars. They cannot achieve the zero-emission level of the fully electric car, which California regulators have been seeking. But many auto engineers believe that the hybrid approach represents a reasonable compromise. Toyota estimates that its hybrid car will bet 66 miles on a gallon of gasoline in Japanese fuel-economy tests, twice the efficiency of a similar-size Corolla. Emissions of carbon dioxide would be cut in half, while those of carbon monoxide hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides would be cut 90 percent."

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1375. Corinna Wu (Jrnlst.) in SCI. NEWS, Oct., 95, 233.
"In September 1993, President Clinton outlined an initiative called the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, a collaboration between automakers and researchers to create by 2004 a vehicle with three times the fuel efficiency of current automobiles. In the opinion of many, hybrids will reach that goal first, Hodgson says."

1376. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 110.
"If petroleum use is to be reduced significantly, propulsion systems with relatively high efficiencies are necessary. Such efficiency requirements might be met in the mid-term by hybrid vehicles that, for example, combine a small ICE with a battery and an electric motor(s) driving the wheels."

1377. Douglas Ogden (Arty., Energy Fndn.), BOOSTING PROSPERITY, Jan., 96, 41.
"Mitsubishi has come out with a prototype hybrid-electric vehicle that can attain top speeds of 95 miles per hour. Running on the battery alone, the vehicle achieves zero local emissions. When stored energy levels fall, a gasoline engine/generator takes over to provide wheel power while simultaneously recharging the battery. The vehicle's driving range is 150 miles on one tank of gasoline. Ford and GM are both working on advanced hybrid vehicles in programs cofunded by the U.S. DOE."

1378. Beth Rogers (Staff) in PUBLIC POWER, March-April, 96, 20.
"In its report. OTA said shifts to new types of drive trains, such as electric hybrids. are necessary to yield the highest levels of fuel efficiency. but great improvements can still be gained with conventional engine/transmission combinations through such technologies as more efficient gasoline engines that take advantage of advanced electronic controls and aerodynamic all-aluminum or carbon-fiber composite bodies. More futuristic technologies, such as fuel cell vehicles, which turn hydrogen directly into electricity without combustion, are not expected to be commercially viable in the short term."

1379.  NY Times Service in DALLAS MORNING NEWS. Mar. 26. 97.2D. 
"Because hybrid cars can get by with smaller batteries. they also should cost much less than fully electric cars. Toyota executives said. They would not disclose the price of their new car but said they aimed to keep it no more than about $4,000 more expensive than a similar-size conventional car, implying a price of less than $20.000 for a compact model. By contrast. the GM electric vehicle, which seats only two people, has a price of $34,000."

1380. Lee Goldberg (Energy Efficiency Consultant) in ELECTRONIC DESIGN, Jan. 6, 97 (Online. Nexis, 3/15/97), 108.
"A third of the first billion we raised is committed by 'wannabe' car companies, mostly from aerospace, electronics, car part, polymers, plus some new start-ups. Two thirds of the funding commitments came from another dozen companies that are already established automakers. mostly big ones. It's moving very fast. We expect the first hypercar to hit the market somewhere around 1999. give or take a year."

1381. DALLAS MORNING NEWS, Mar. 18, 97, 4D.
"Ford Motor Co. said Monday that it plans to begin testing by fall prototypes of an ultralight, high-mileage car designed for the 21st century. What Ford envisions is an aerodynamic family car that weighs just 2,000 pounds, gets almost 70 miles per gallon of diesel fuel and produces only minute amounts of pollution. The so-called 'supercar' will combine an electric motor with an advanced, direct-injection diesel engine."

1382. Amory Lovins (Dir., Rsrch., Rocky Mt. lnst.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 77.
"Conventional cars, like other technologies, have entered their era of greatest refinement just as they may become obsolete. Imagine that seventh of U.S. GNP were derived from the Big Three typewriter manufacturers, who have gradually progressed from manual to electric to typical models and are now making delicate refinements for the forthcoming Selectric 17. The typewriters are excellent and even profitable, selling 15 million every year. The only trouble is that the competition is developing wireless subnotebook computers. That is where the global auto industry is today--painstakingly refining designs that may soon be swept away by the integration of powerful technologies already in or entering the market. Advanced materials, software, motors, microelectronics, power electronics. electric storage devices, and computer-aided design and manufacturing will bring a revolution in both vehicles and auto manufacturing."

1383 Robert Lutz (CEO, Chrysler Corp.) in NAT'L. ASSN. ENVIR. PROFESSIONALS NEWS, Winter, 97, 12.
"Consider that today's vehicles are more than 96 percent clean compared to the cars of the 1960s in terms of tailpipe and evaporative emissions. In fact, a 1996 Dodge Grand Caravan minivan driving a 250-mile trip emits fewer smog-forming emissions than a 1965 vehicle that is sitting parked for 24 hours with the engine off!. By the turn of the century that figure will be close to 99 percent clean."

1384. Amory Lovins (Dir., Rsrch.. Rocky Mt. Inst.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95.84.
"Ultralight hybrids also favor ultraclean fuels. A small tank could store enough compressed natural gas or hydrogen for long range, and the high cost of hydrogen would become less important if only a tenth as much of it were needed. Liquid fuels sustainably derived from farm and forestry wastes would become ample to run an ultra-efficient transportation system without the need of special crops or fossil fuels."

1385. Amory Lovins (Dir., Rsrch.. Rocky Mt. Inst.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 90.
"The potential public benefits of hypercars are enormous--in oil displacement, energy security, international stability, avoided military costs. balance of trade, climate protection, clean air, health and safety, noise reduction, and quality of urban life:. Promptly and skillfully exploited, hypercars could also propel an industrial renewal. They are good news for such industries--many now demilitarizing--as electronics. systems integration. aerospace, software, petrochemicals, and even textiles (which offer automated fiber-weaving techniques)."

1386. Amory B. Lovins (Energy Rsrch. Spec., Rocky Mntn. Inst.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 1384.
"It is turning out that the next doubling of car efficiency will be easier than the first was, because it will come from very different sources: not from incremental refinement of today's cars but from replacing them altogether with a different and functionally superior concept of car design. manufacture, and sales. This concept began to take shape in 1991 and rapidly gained momentum during the following three years. partly due to the recognition gained through the Nissan Prize awarded at the main European car technology conference, the autumn 1993 ISATA in ARchen, Germany. By mid-1994, the hypercar concept had engaged the commercial effort of approximately 20 entities with impressive capabilities. including automakers, large electronics and aerospace companies, and worldclass venture capitalists. This rapidly growing group of hypercar entrepreneurs shares a vision of an auto industry transformation that seems technologically plausible and commercially attractive in the 1990s and beyond."

1387. Amory Lovins (Dir., Rsrch., Rocky Mr. lnst.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 82.
"In today's cars, accessories--power steering, heating, air conditioning, ventilation, lights, and entertainment systems--use about a tenth of engine power. But a hypercar would use about the same amount of energy for all purposes by saving most of the wheelpower and most of the accessory loads."

125

1388. Amory Lovins (Dir., Rsrch., Rocky Mt. Inst.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 80.
"This revolution in efficiency has two main causes. First. the ultralight loses very little energy irrecoverably (to air and road friction), and ' the hybrid-electric drive recovers most of the rest (the braking energy). Second, saved weight compounds. When you make a heavy car one pound lighter, you really make it about a pound and a half lighter because it needs lighter structure and suspension, a smaller engine, less fuel, etc., to haul that weight around. But in an ultralight, saving a pound may save more like five pounds. Indirect weight savings snowball faster in ultralights than in heavy cars, faster in hybrids than in nonhybrids. and fastest of all in hybrid-electric ultralights (Lovins et al., 1993). All of the ingredients need to capture these energies are already demonstrated and need only be combined."

1389. Amory B. Lovins (Energy Rsrch. Spec., Rocky Mntn. Inst.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 1392.
"The two- or (with series hybrids) four-wheel electric motors, especially if switched reluctance, offer full-time anti lock braking and antislip traction, with far greater balance. response speed, sophistication, and effectiveness than today's methods. For example, the algorithms could easily be integrated with a frost sensor, and slippage data from one wheel could instantly be used to generate corrective signals to the other three, consistent with the dynamic simulator's platform stability requirements. Hypercars' light weight means potentially faster starts and stops (depending on traction), while their still shell means quicker and more precise handling."

1390. Amory B. Lovins {Energy Rsrch. Spec., Rocky Mntn. lnst.) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 1392.
"In the rare accidents so severe as to crush the composite shell (usually in hammer-and anvil fashion), the occupants would be far less likely to be injured than by intruding torn metal edges in a steel car; with any potentially intruding carbon-fiber shards overlain by or interwoven into fracture-masking aramid or polyethylene cloth, the crushed composite sections can become relatively innocuous."

1391. Amory Lovins (Dir.. Rsrch., Rocky Mt. Inst.) in TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY, 95, 83.
"Ultralights can be at least as safe as today's heavy steel cars, even when both kinds collide head-on at high speeds. Composites are so strong and bouncy that they can absorb far more energy per pound than metal. Materials and design are much more important for satiety than mere mass, and occupant protection systems can be lightweight. For example, just a few pounds of hollow, crushable carbon-fiber-and-plastic cones can absorb the entire crash energy of a 1,200-pound car hitting a wall at 25 mph.'

1392. Hugh Wilson (Staff, Nat'l. Conf. of St. Legislatures) et al., ALTERNATIVE FUELS, Mar., 96. 4.
"The CAAA also require nine cities with the worst ozone problems (Baltimore, Chicago, Hartford. Houston, Los Angeles. Milwaukee, New York City, Philadelphia and San Diego) to sell 'reformulated gasoline' beginning in January 1995. Reformulated (emphasis in original) means changing the ingredients in gasoline to make it burn cleanly. Reformulated gasoline reduces harmful compounds and adds cleaner-burning substances to gasoline, resulting in a cleaner burning fuel, which significantly reduces air pollution. According to the U.S. EPA< in 1995 alone federal reformulated gasoline reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and toxic air pollutants by 15 percent each over 1990 conventional gasoline standards. This is equivalent to taking 8 million cars off the road."

1393. Andy Kydes (Staff, U.S. Dept. Energy) et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 223.
"The makeup of U.S. gasoline consumption will change significantly as CAAA90 requirements continue to be phased in. Starting in 1995. cleaner burning 'reformulated gasoline' will be sold in the nine metropolitan areas with the most severe ozone pollution and in other areas, predominantly in the Northeast, that choose to impose the requirement. In Califomia beginning in 1996, all gasoline sold must be 'reformulated' according to standards set by the California Air Resources Board. After 1996, reformulated gasoline will make up some 40% of the gasoline consumed in the United States. About one-eighth of the reformulated gasoline must also meet preexisting higher oxygen standards in areas with high carbon monoxide levels."

1394. Julian Alston (Prof., Ag. Eco., U. CA-Davis) in RESOURCE & ENERGY ECONOMICS 18, 96, 5.
"The first part of the CAAA was implemented November 1992 and required a 2.7 weight-percent oxygen content for fuels sold in 39 metropolitan 'CO non-attainment areas' during at least four winter months. The EPA reports that 10 percent blends of ethanol and gasoline, and 15 percent blends of MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether, a petroleum-based product) and gasoline, raise the oxygen content to the minimum mandated level. Because these 39 metropolitan areas represent roughly one-third of domestic gasoline use, this legislation has created an immediate new demand for oxygen additives equivalent to 1.3 billion gallons of ethanol per year."

1395. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 73.
"The 1990 Clean Air Act amendments contain several measures designed to reduce motor vehicle pollutants. The phaseout of lead is scheduled for January I, 1996. In some nonattainment areas, gasoline will have to be reformulated to contain fewer VOCs, and detergents in gasoline will have to be reformulated to contain fewer VOC's, and detergents in gasoline to prevent engine deposits will be required."

1396. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress). Sept. 95. 123.
"Reformulated gasoline is gasoline that has been modified to have lower emissions of hydrocarbons (to reduce ozone formation), benzene. heavy metals, and other pollutants. By law, reformulated gasoline must have a 2-percent oxygen content to ensure compliance with regional CO standards. It has the advantage of not requiting engine modification or a separate fuel infrastructure. Thus. reformulated gasoline can reduce the emissions of cars already on the road."

1397. Edward Dineen (V.P., ARGO Chemical Co.) in HSE HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, June 7, 95, 38.
"In November, 1992 the Oxygenated Fuels program was implemented nationwide to help reduce harmful wintertime carbon monoxide pollution. Despite problems a few problems. this program was well received in most of the 36 areas where it was introduced. The results were even more impressive, a 90% reduction in the number of violations of the carbon-monoxide air quality standards in areas where this fuel was sued for the first time."

1398. Mary Nichols (Asst. Admin., U.S. EPA) in HSE HRGS: CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS, June 7, 95, 7.
"Reformulated gasoline is one of the most effective programs for reducing groundlevel ozone and toxic air pollutants in urban areas. Between 1995 and 1999, reformulated gasoline will result in a 15 percent reduction in volatile organic compounds, which cause ozone. and air toxics. Beginning in the year 2000, a 25 percent reduction in these two classes of pollutants will be realized, along with a 5-7 percent reduction in oxides of nitrogen or NOx, another contributor to ozone."

1399. Hugh Wilson (Staff, Nat'l. Coal. of St. Legislatures)et al., ALTERNATIVE FUELS, Mar.. 96, 17.
"Some citizens have complained that the RFG additive MTBE causes headaches, nausea and dizziness. However, many studies conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, various state health agencies and Yale and Rutgers universities before and after these allegations have concluded that there is no verifiable evidence to support adverse health effects of MTBE on human health."

1400. Hugh Wilson (Staff, Nat'l. Coal. of St. Legislatures) et al.. ALTERNATIVE FUELS, Mar., 96, 4.
"In response to the concerns around the country an extensive study was conducted by the Wisconsin Department of Health and Social Services in conjunction with the University of Wisconsin, the U.S. EPA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The study, released in 1995, concluded that exposure to reformulated gasoline is not associated with widespread or serious, acute, adverse health effects."

126

1401. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 323.
"Both Clinton and Gore have said that American industry is slipping behind the rest of the world in 'the green race.' Statistics suggest the reverse. In 1991. U.S. firms exported $362 million in pollution-control devices, a small figure by the standards of global trade but the largest amount recorded by any country. Overall the U.S. balance-of-trade in environmental goods and services was a positive $6 billion in 1991, among the few positives on that ledger. In every year of the 1990s U.S. firms have had the fastest-growing international market share in the green race, better than Germany or Japan.

1402. Anne H. Ehrlich (St. Rsrch. Assoc., Bio. Sci., Stanford U.) in BETRAYAL OF SCI. & REASON, 96, 181.
"Having been forced by legislation such as the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts and regulation of toxic chemicals to meet stringent American standards, U.S. industries are in a powerful competitive position to introduce to global markets such pollution-control technologies as catalytic converters and in-factory recycling. Already American manufacturers have captured the largest single share of the green technology market. worth more than $100 billion per year."

1403. Jeffrey Hallett (Staff: Sanders lnt'l.) in VISION 2001: ENERGY & ENVIR. ENGINEERING. 96. 73.
'In response to growing environmental crises in the developing world, and to a rare and fortunate meeting of global commercial and environmental interests. the U.S. government has, over the past five years. crafted and implemented a number of innovative programs aimed at encouraging and facilitating U.S. environmental equipment and technology exports. A number of these programs have begun to show significant and measurable results in assisting U.S. environmental technology and service providers in identifying and developing international business opportunities leading to joint ventures. licensing arrangements and export sales of plant and equipment."

1404. James R. Golden (Prof.. Soc. Sci.. U.S. Mil. Acad.) in NEW FORCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, 96. 23.
"In short, U.S. productivity problems do not originate in the manufacturing and high-technology areas. In that, the United States maintains its lead in the share of high technology exports in world markets."

1405. Joseph E. Pattison (Int'l. lawyer), BREAKING BOUNDARIES. 96. 36-7.
"The United States ships far fewer semiconductors to Japan than Japanese firms ship to the United States. Conclusion' (emphasis in original) The United States has been defeated in this critical segment of the computer industry and must impose quotas on the flow of chips. Several U.S. firms. like Texas Instruments, make semiconductors in Japan for Japanese computer firms that are missed by trade data. Chip quotas imposed by Washington cost 11,000 high-tech U.S. jobs, pushed computer production offshore, and ultimately protected Japanese production. American innovation drives the global industry and provides America with the biggest proportion or global value-added."

1406. J. Paul Home (Managing Dir. & lnt'l. Economist, Smith Barney. Paris), July, 96, 14.
"The U.S. export performance has been good relative to most competitors during the past several years. Using the ratio of manufactured export volume growth to the growth of import volumes of trading partners. the United States has had better export performance than most OECD countries except Italy and Canada---both of whom depreciated their currencies more than the United States."

1407. Alan Weisman (Contrib. Ed.) in LA TIMES, Mar. 19, 95 (Online. Nexis, 3/15/97), 18.
"Germany, world leader in hydrogen research investment--about $12 million a year since the late 1970s until it was blindsided by the expense of reunification--is hardly the renewable-energy economy I imagined. An official from the state of Bavaria's electric utility, which has the world's biggest hydrogen pilot facility, admits there are no plans to scale up to a full-sized working plant. So what will they do in 30 years. when Bavaria's aging nuclear plants must be phased out and fossil fuels are expected to be scarce? 'I can't answer that question. Nobody can."'

1408. Dan Halacy (Solar Energy Consultant) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 1340.
"In the nearly four decades since Bell Laboratory's invention, millions of PV modules have been used in hundreds of different applications. These range from spacecraft to earth-bound calculators and computers, to residential electric power rooftop arrays, utility power plants, PV-powered vehicles, and even a few man-carrying aircraft. There are many thousands of PV arrays in operation, manufactured by commercial firms worldwide. Costs have dropped more than 20-fold since the 1950s, and the united States continues to expand its share of the growing PV market."

1409. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment, U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 195,
"R&D. Overall program budgets for RD&D are listed by RET in table 1-4. These supports have increased from the low in 1990 orS119 million to a FY 1995 level of about $331 million. (Half of this increase occurred in 1991 and 1992 following the Bush Administration's development of the National Energy Strategy. )"

1410. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95, 81.
"EERE stands for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Its budget is approximately $1.1 billion with about $400 million for renewable energy."

1411. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech. Assessment. U.S. Congress), Sept. 95, 224.
"Federal commercialization supports for RETs currently include accelerated depreciation. investment tax credits, and the REPC."

1412. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95, 80.
"Since fiscal year '93 there's been an increase of nearly 50 percent in appropriations for renewable resources. We're making some reallocations and we're spending the money more wisely."

1413. David Angel (Prof.. Sci.. Clark U.) in ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY. July, 95 (Online, Nexis, 3/15/97), 337.
"A new interagency Innovative Technology Committee has been established under the leadership of the Environmental Protection Agency to promote the development and sale of green technology by U.S. firms. Various forms of public-private partnership, government seed funding, export promotion, government procurement, and testing sites are proposed. Two environmental technology bills are currently before Congress. All these developments suggest something of a convergence toward the models of industry-government cooperation that have been a prominent part of government policy in Japan, Germany, and elsewhere."

1414. Jeffrey Hallett (Staff, Sanders lnt'l.) in VISION 2001: ENERGY & ENVIR. ENGINEERING. 96. 75.
"The Role of Federal Programs: In the last few years, the U.S. government has developed and executed a number of international environmental business development projects that have demonstrated a remarkable degree of success in promoting and facilitating environmental business linkages."

1415. Report: ENERGY FOR TODAY & TOMORROW, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 96, 12.
"The Photovoltaic Systems Program works with industry to accelerate the commercialization of photovoltaic (PV) power. The program will use research, joint ventures and market development to help U.S. industry capture a significant share of the global electric power market--1,000 Megwatts of world PV capacity by the year 2000."

1416. Thomas D. Bath (Nat'l. Renewable Energy Lab) in ALTERNATIVE FUELS & THE ENVIR.. 95, 211.
"In September 1991, President Bush elevated the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) to a DOE national laboratory and designated it the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in recognition of the importance of RET to the nation and the outstanding contributions of its staff to the advancement of RETs over the past 14 years. In addition, the creation of a national laboratory devoted specifically to renewable energy signifies the critical role of renewables in the nation's future energy supply mix."

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1417. Joseph E. Pattison (Int'l. Lawyer), BREAKING BOUNDARIES. 96, 107.
"It is no coincidence that the industries in which America has the most successful world-class competitors are those that have the most distaste for technology intervention. Most U.S. computer and software firms swore off Washington's hell after witnessing Washington's role in managing semiconductors and display screens. American pharmaceutical firms do not rely on Washington for protection or funding; they spend 15 percent of sales on innovation, and many are in the top ranks of their industry. American chemical firms have proven highly innovative based on their own funding and enjoy billions in global sales."

1418. Joseph E. Pattison (Int'l. Lawyer), BREAKING BOUNDARIES. 96, 106.
"Marina N. Whitman is vice president for public affairs at General Motors. She has a deep suspicion of innovation intervention by Washington. Any govemmental effort to pick global winners is implicitly flawed. she points out, because 'it would undermine the right to fail.' As Whitman explains, 'Placing the burden of failure for noncompetitive decisions on the political process' encourages bureaucrats to 'keep high-profile R&D commercialization projects that would otherwise have collapsed alive on expensive life-support systems.' The burden of relentless innovation is on private enterprise, not government."

1419. Joseph E. Pattison (Int'l. Lawyer). BREAKING BOUNDARIES. 96, 103.
'Murray Weidenbaum. economic adviser to presidents and currently professor at the Center for the Study of American Business at Washington University, has been close to Washington's technology policymaking for many years. He's not impressed with public-policy pundits who feel they can second-guess today's marketplace, 'Government--at least in the United States--is not good at choosing which areas of technology to support and which organizations to do the work."

1420. Glenn R. Schleede (Pres., Energy Market & Pol. Analysis) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 146.
"The Bush and Clinton administrations have had strong advocates for a federal role in advancing technologies intended largely for private-sector use. Industrial policy advocates seem undeterred by past failures, such as the federal effort to create a large, sustainable civilian nuclear power industry---one of the largest industrial policy experiments of all time."

1421. Glenn R. Schleede (Pres., Energy Market & Pol. Analysis) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 145.
"Perhaps the most glaring example of policies that have often failed but continue to be applied is the expenditure of billions of tax dollars to subsidize energy RD&D efforts. Despite expenditures of over $100 billion since the early 1950s, the U.S. government has little to show for these tax dollars in the way of technologies that can compete in the private sector. Successful contributions, such as improved gas turbines sued in electric generation, are principally spin-offs from defense-related R&D."

1422. Glenn R. Schleede (Pres., Energy Market & Pol. Analysis) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 145.
"To this day DOE lacks clear criteria for selecting and evaluating energy RD&D efforts, clear standards for information that must be presented by advocates, an effective process for establishing priorities. procedures to assess objectively the potential marketability of technologies if they are developed, or effective measures to assure that federal subsidies do not displace private investments in RD&D. Protestations by advocates of federal energy RD&D subsidies who argue that private companies also spend money on unproductive RD&D efforts carry no weight. When private companies find that efforts are unproductive, they cut off spending, an action that DOE and Congress avoid."

1423. Glenn R. Schleede (Pres., Energy Market & Pol. Analysis) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 149.
"The logical source of support, DOE, may have little interest in analysis that evaluates past policy failures objectively or is critical of current DOE roles and policies. Further, current low levels of public interest in energy probably mean that funding is unavailable from other government agencies or foundations that might otherwise have an interest in objective public policy analysis."

1424. Joseph P. Martino (Sr. Rsrch. Sci., U. Dayton Rsrch. Inst.), PRIVATIZING FEDERAL R & D LABS, Nov., 96, 17.
"As noted in the descriptions of the individual laboratories, some important technological developments have been generated. However, the commercial potential of these laboratories should not be overestimated. As the Galvin Report observes, [The laboratories are not now, nor will they become, cornucopias of relevant technology for a broad range of industries. A significant fraction of the laboratories' industrial competitiveness activities concern technologies which are of less than primary importance to their industrial collaborators and/or which these partners could obtain from other sources." [Emphasis in original]

1425. Joseph P. Martino (Sr. Rsrch. Sci., U. Dayton Rsrch. Inst.), PRIVATIZING FEDERAL R & D LABS, Nov., 96, 17.
"The principle behind the finding is: Government ownership and operation of these laboratories does not work well.' The report then goes on to enumerate the familiar litany of excessive oversight, micromanagement, duplicative management by Department of Energy field offices, too many review groups, and too great influence of outside advisory boards. Thus despite any shortcomings the Department of Energy laboratories may have in industrial competitiveness, to gain full benefit from their technological capabilities, they must be privatized, if only to get them out from under the bureaucracy which has grown up since 1945."

1426. Joseph P. Martino (St. Rsrch. Sci., U. Dayton Rsrch. Inst.), PRIVATIZING FEDERAL R & D LABS, Nov., 96, 2.
"First, privatized laboratories can sell their services more widely than can government laboratories. The Institute for Technology Assessment, mentioned above, illustrates this point. Second, privatized laboratories can be run more effectively than can government laboratories, since they are not limited by the personnel regulations which all too often make it difficult or impossible to remove ineffective employees, or to compensate effective employees adequately."

1427. Joseph P. Martino (Sr. Rsrch. Sci., U. Dayton Rsrch. lnst.), PRIVATIZING FEDERAL R & D LABS, Nov., 96, I.
"Privatization of government activities is not an end in itself. The goal of privatization of research laboratories is to get the right science done by the right people. In many cases, the fact that a laboratory is located within the government prevents the right science from being done, or inhibits the hiring of the right people. Privatization of government laboratories is intended to return to the private sector those activities which the federal government should not be doing at all, or which the private sector can carry out more effectively or more efficiently than the federal government."

1428. Joseph P. Martino (St. Rsrch. Sci., U. Dayton Rsrch. lnst.), PRIVATIZING FEDERAL R & D LABS, Nov., 96, 18.
"The Department itself seems to agree with this criticism: in an official publication, it observes that: The Department uses more resources and is less efficient than it should be due to excessive layers of management and duplicative work. Bureaucratic layers and organizational redundancies are the result of confusion over roles and responsibility, a lack of vigilance in eliminating duplicative work, and failure to eliminate non-value-added layers and processes. Privatization thus seems to be the only option for salvaging the technical capabilities of the Department of Energy laboratories. Even Energy Secretary Hazel O'Leary has come to this same conclusion: 'We need to discard old work and privatize, eliminate, or transfer functions that can be performed better elsewhere."

1429. Joseph P. Martino (St. Rsrch. Sci., U. Dayton Rsrch. lnst.), PRIVATIZING FEDERAL R & D LABS, Nov., 96, I.
"The non-profit Institute for Technology Assessment (ITA) was established at the end of 1995. The founders of ITA intend to seek clients in state and local government, industry, and foreign organizations, as well as continuing to do contract work for the Congress. While the success of ITA is not yet guaranteed, its rapid establishment is certainly an indicator that other government research activities can be privatized, and can seek wider sources of funding than their parent agencies alone."

1430. Glenn R. Schleede (Pres., Energy Market & Pol. Analysis) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 148.
"A large central government function is particularly difficult to justify in an era when energy supplies are plentiful, prices are moderate, competition is strong, and the key decisions affecting energy are made quite competently by millions of individuals and organizations outside Washington."

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1431. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR., 95, 323.
"The rationale for government subsidies under path dependence theory is to jump-start an industry for its environmental benefit, not provide indefinite promotion efforts."

1432. Denny Ellennan (Prof., Energy & the Envir., MIT) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 69-70.
"After twenty years nothing impressive emerges from the energy R&D effort. In the main, the energy technology of the 1990s is an improved version of what existed in 1973. The only notably different technology is the gas-fired combined-cycle power plant. Although there was some ERDA/DOE funding of alternative bottom and topping cycles, the technology used today originated in Department of Defense R&D after a considerable gestation period in the aerospace industry."

1433. Marc Ross (Prof., Engineering, U. MI) in THE WILEY ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ENERGY & THE ENVIR., 97, 563.
"Another kind of technology push policy is the cooperative government-industry venture, closely managed by committees and involving substantial industry investment. An example is the Advanced Battery Consortium for electric vehicles. As with the Steel Initiative mentioned above, there are serious difficulties with this kind of approach because the firms involved are often mature, and although willing to join the venture. they may, in fact, be lukewarm about radical innovation."

1434. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 92.
"During the early 1990s federal emphasis on R&D and the 'next generation' of wind turbines hurt wind energy in the United States by dangling 'a better technology on the horizon' in front of decision makers. Entrepreneur Dick Farrell recounts how NREL representatives, speaking to groups in the Pacific Northwest, damaged near-term prospects for his firm by constantly referring to the super machines on NRELs drawing boards."

1435. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 92.
"But the government-R&D enterprise has yet to deliver a reliable wind turbine. When NREL/DOE seeks to build specific machines such as those of the advanced wind turbine program, it is too slow for industry to benefit. It took NREL two to three years to develop advanced wind turbine blades. This is about the same amount of time as the entire turbine development cycle in Denmark, where through the 1980s and early 1990s a new model was introduced every two years."

1436. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 71-2.
"The United States lavished nearly half  a billion dollars on the aerospace industry from 1974 to 1992. most for multimegawatt machines. During the same period. the Danish government spent the equivalent of $53 million for wind energy R&D. Like similar programs in Germany, Denmark, Sweden. and Britain. the $330 million spent by NASA/DOE on multimegawatt machines in the United States produced no commercial results that survived into the 1990s."

1437. Nancy Cole (Staff Union Concerned Scientists), RENEWABLES ARE READY, 95~ 16.
"The rush to build wind turbines brought many poorly designed machines to market that were either inefficient or unable to withstand the mechanical stresses caused by variable and high-speed winds; many were placed in less-than-optimal locations. Coupled with these technical problems, the reputation of the industry was seriously damaged by naive or dishonest operators overselling their products or seeking to take advantage of generous tax credits and a gullible public. These problems left a legacy of doubt and skepticism that is only now beginning to fade."

1438. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 73.
"Relative to its R&D expenditure, the United States produces only one-third as much wind energy as does Denmark. Overall, for the period 1974-1992 Denmark produced twice as much value in kilowatt-hours of generation for its public investment s did the United States. Moreover, Denmark built a thriving export industry, whereas only one major U.S. manufacturer of medium-sized wind turbines. U.S. Windpower, remained in existence by the mid-1990s."

1439. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 72.
"The United Sates spent another $120 million on development of small to medium-sized machines through Rockwell's Rocky Flats test center. None of the designs produced by the Rocky Flats program were being manufactured by the late 1980s, although several hundred problem-prone derivatives were operating in California wind plants. In contrast, Denmark spent $19 million on medium-sized wind turbines and dominated worldwide manufacturing from the mid-1980s through the present."

1440. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 99.
"Presumed economies of scale dictated that 'bigger is better' be the dominant technical ideology among utilities and government R&D programs in North America and Europe during the 1970s. Since the turn of the century, utilities had seen remarkable improvements in thermal efficiency and the resulting cost of energy as conventional power plants increased in size. Government wind turbine designers hoped to short-circuit the time-consuming process of stepping from one size to the next by circumventing the intermediary stages and vaulting to the biggest machines conceivable. They ignored ample evidence in the 1970s that each succeeding gain in conventional power plant efficiency was more hard won than the last and that the benefits of size had reached a plateau."

1441. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 96.
"In the mid-1970s governments in North America and Europe launched ambitious programs to build a series of multimegawatt turbines. These machines began appearing on the landscape in the late 1970s and early 1980s. By the late 1980s most had already become history, and their program directors artfully designated them 'technical successes'; that is, they never operated long enough to destroy themselves. Yet in terms that a wind plant operator or banker understands, they were all failures. They failed in the three areas that matter: hours of operation, energy generated, and a contribution toward making wind technology more competitive with conventional fuels."

1442. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 96.
"Centrally directed R&D's most spectacular failure was in the ultimately unsuccessful attempt to build the giants of the wind turbine world: the multimegawatt machines. These huge wind turbines, machines with rotors more than 60 m (wpp ft) in diameter, have a long history of offering false hope. The behemoths have never delivered as much energy or worked as reliably as their proponents promised, nor have they performed nearly as well as the medium-sized wind turbines employed commercially around the world."

1443. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE. 95, 93.
"The wind industry's technological goal should be the design of productive, quiet. and aesthetically pleasing wind turbines that are as environmentally benign as it is humanly possible to make them. Yet nearly all government-sponsored R&D has focused on productivity, and often, sadly, to the exclusion of other concerns."

1444. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 93.
"Government-sponsored R&D is a chimera. R&D will not produce wind energy. Roger Little of Spire. a manufacturer of solar cells, sums up the attitude of business: 'R&D won't make an industry by itself.' Public
investment should go to wind turbine owners in compensation for the pollution-free electricity produced by wind energy rather than into a never-ending search for technological panaceas that benefit only the R&D community."

1445. RENEWING OUR ENERGY FUTURE (Office of Tech Assessment. U,S, ('Congress), Sept- 95, 214,
"Overall, the history of the development of the wind power industry has both negative and positive aspects.  On the negative side, at least one detailed analysis indicates that more was spent to develop wind technology during this period than was necessary or efficient.  Using tax and rate incentives, in effect, to support RD&D, and installing many poor performing machines was not an efficient means of developing and commercializing wind energy technology.  Tax-based financing also sometimes resulted in year-end investment decisions, making planning and manufacturing difficult."

1446. Daniel M. Berman & John T. O'Connor (Visiting Scholar, Sch. of Pub., U. CA-Davis, & Pres., Greenworks, Inc.) in WHO OWNS THE SUN?, 96, 228.
"The big winners in the U.S. wind-energy research game have been giant corporations such as General Electric, Westinghouse, Boeing, and Hamilton Standard, whose aerospace divisions are masters at extracting R&D contracts from the government, but who are not necessarily so skilled at producing and selling products for a mass market."

1447. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 92.
"The anticipated results from R&D gives prevaricators reason to postpone decision making. For example, today's technology requires high-wind sites to compete effectively against fossil fuels. These locations are unique. Many, such as California's mountain ridgetops or Denmark's coastline, are also scenic. Why sacrifice these sites with today's technology when better technology is on the horizon? The reason is simple: When that technology finally arrives, even better technology is certainly just around the comer. Waiting until the 'best' technology is available is like the dog chasing its tail; there is no end."

1448 Daniel Rich (Prof. Urban Affairs. U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 781-2.
"The viability of tax credits as policy instruments to promote commercialization needs to be assessed in the context of the expectations that accompanied their enactment and that provided the rationale for their role in federal solar policy. When so assessed. it is not at all certain that tax credits were the most appropriate policy vehicle to facilitate growth in solar markets, give the state of the solar industry and solar technologies in the mid- and late 1970s.'

1449. Daniel Rich (Prof. Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96. 761-2.
"Although most conventional energy subsidies have been directed to energy producers, the renewable energy tax credits made subsidies available to consumers. This feature is consistent with general policy expectations that many solar technologies were market-ready and that only sufficient financial incentives were needed to stimulate initial demand. It also helps to explain why the tax credits had widespread political appeal."

1450. Daniel Rich (Prof, Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 785-6.
"Evidence suggests that the federal tax credits have benefited the solar industry and, in combination with rising conventional energy prices, have increased the pace of solar commercialization. Nonetheless, the overall cost effectiveness of the federal solar tax credits has not been conclusively documented by existing evaluation research. Furthermore. given the state of the industry and the characteristics of the technology delivery system in the late 1970s, it is questionable whether the tax credits were the most suitable instrument to promote solar commercialization at that time."

1451. Daniel Rich (Prof, Urban Affairs. U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 786.
"The elimination of the residential tax credits has contributed to the contraction of the solar industry, and the federal government has adopted no other policy to facilitate solar commercialization."

1452. Ronald Larson (Consultant, Solar Energy Policy) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 61.
"Solar heating of swimming pools and passive home heating received virtually no tax credits, but both continue as viable businesses. This commercialization support from tax credits. Similarly, the tax credits should perhaps have been more closely linked to the amount of energy saved rather than to the cost of the system."

1453. Eban S. Goodstein (Prof., Eco., Skidmore Col.), ECONOMICS & THE ENVIR,. 95, 318,
"Clean technologies, by contrast, generally are not offering a new product; rather they go head to head with an existing, well-established technology in a mature industry.  Thus, they must enter an already competitive field, where only normal profits can be expected.  The only clear-cut advantage CTs have is in their environmental impact.  While this may provide some marketing leverage, it generally will not guarentee high profitability."

1454. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci., N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX, 95, 135-6.
"The Clinton administration appears to be taking a market-based approach to energy policy. The White House Office on Environmental Policy (OEP) was created with an agenda to stress the economics of environmentalism, including creating jobs and new business opportunities for new technologies."

1455. David Lewis Feldman (Sr. Rsrch. Assoc., U. TN) in THE ENERGY CRISIS, 96, 15.
"There appears to be a tension in government R&D policy between two goals. The first goal is to have an independent entity investigate the feasibility and absorb some of the financial risks of new technologies that are not yet ready for markets but whose development serves a public interest. The second goal is to ensure that government does not by itself take on the responsibility of making a new energy technology work. Most participants concur that government intervention is not an effective substitute for price incentives that make energy-saving technologies economically attractive and politically feasible."

1456. William Peiree (Prof.. Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 243-4.
"In addition to the two noneconomic arguments. there are two interrelated economic ones. The first is that encouraging the development of a market will spur innovation. The second is that expanding the market will permit economies of scale in manufacturing and thus bring down the cost of production and the price."

1457. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 92-3.
"Technology progresses in response to a stimulus. This can be a top-down R&D program resulting from a congressional appropriation or a bottom-up R&D program led by a market for the technology. As seen. creating a market for wind energy is more powerful at driving the technology forward than is government R&D. A market will never develop if everyone waits for 'next generation' technology. The Sierra Club's energy chair. Rich Ferguson, says NREL's posturing that wind energy will work best sometime in the future after further R&D serves only to keep renewables in a 'green ghetto."'

1458. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 72-3.
"The lesson from this, say critics, is that wind generation is uncorrelated with R&D expenditures--that research must be market driven, not technology driven. Denmark, the nation with the largest number of manufacturers, spent the least on R&D. Countries that spent heavily on market incentives generate more wind energy than those that spent heavily on R&D. Those nations that emphasized premium tariffs on generation, that is. paid fair prices for the electricity generated, did better than those that emphasized capital subsidies on the installation of equipment. such as the United States."

1459. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 92.
"Many would prefer market incentives to R&D if the distinction between the two were clear: market incentives result in more renewables. whereas more R&D often results in just more R&D."

1460. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95. 188.
"A reason auto tailpipe controls worked is that they were drawn as performance standards, not process (sometimes command and control) rules. Instead of attempting to dictate to auto manufacturers what sort of antipollution technology should be installed on cars, the 1970 Clean Air Act simply decreed that auto tailpipe pollution must be cut 90 percent. How carmakers met the target would be their concern. The selection of a 90-percent performance standard 'was a back of the envelope calculation,' says Philip Cummings, who was at the time counsel to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, where parts of the act were drafted. 'We just picked that number because it sounded like a good goal."

130

1461. David Roodman (Staff World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1996, 96, 176.
"In the Netherlands, a tax system has reduced industrial pollution of rivers and lakes since the mid-seventies. Gradually rising charges for heavy metal emissions have spurred companies to cut emissions while letting them figure out the cheapest ways to do so. Between 1976 and 1991, total emissions of lead, mercury, and other heavy metals fell by 83-97 percent, primarily because of the charges, according to statistical analysis. Generally the companies for whom cleaning up was cheapest did it the most. The enterprises may also have passed part of the taxes on to their consumers through higher prices, causing them to lose business--another way to reduce emissions from the factories."

1462. Tomasz Zylicz (Prof., Eco., Warsow U.) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 95, 161.
"The pursuit of self-interest can be used as a guide to lowering environmental protection costs, and the market is the best mechanism to reveal what expenditures are really inevitable to meet environmental requirements. Markets can reveal what cost society really has to bear to meet these requirements. Then, in turn, economic instruments can 'harness' market forces to work for the environment's sake."

1463. William Peirce (Prof:, Eco., Case Western Reserve U.), ECONOMICS OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES, 96, 267.
"It is only recently that the U.S. government has begun to move away from command and control. The advantage of using some market-like mechanism that equalizes the marginal cost of pollution abatement in every' activity is that pollution is decreased in the cheapest possible way."

1464. David Roodman (Staff World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1996. 96, 176.
"Policymakers in many parts of the world are realizing that whenever they can express their environmental goals in a single number--how many tons of benzene should be permitted into an airshed each year. for example, or how much water pumped from an aquifer--and whenever pollution or depletion rates can be estimated, market-oriented approaches can efficiently replace many regulations. Such quantifiable problems include urban smog. acid rain, overfishing, depletion and pollution of ground and surface waters. and emissions of airborne toxics. ozone-depleting chemicals. and greenhouse gases."

1465. Daniel Dudek (St. Economist, Envir. Defense Fund) in HSE HRGS: ELECTRICITY REGULATION: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE. May 15, 96, 158.
"The lessons of the past 20 years of experience in both energy and environmental policy have led the Environmental Defense Fund to favor a reliance on markets for the efficient allocation of society's scarce resources in solution of these problems. While the regulated monopoly structure has afforded opportunities to impose market-like discipline on utilities, it has more often than not led to an exacerbation rather then diminution of environmental problems."

1466. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95. 199.
"Yet such voluntary approaches to pollution control are the wave of the future. Market innovation and nonlegalistic mediation are infinitely preferable to judicial review and bureaucratic rule making, since even when the latter are successful they are agonizingly slow and expend resources on process rather than on results."

1467. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,204.
"Because the EPA claimed to be seeking a scientifically precise basis for regulations, corporate lawyers found they could stall almost any decision by trotting out an expert to testify that more study was required. Federal rules generally are blocked by judges if found 'arbitrary or capricious.' A monster was soon created as courts began to hold essentially that whenever EPA attempted to define a scientifically certain level for emissions, any regulation about which there existed scientific doubt was capricious and must go back to the drawing board."

1468. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 20-1.
"Critics of regulation argue that more protection should be given to private property rights, and that a system of private property rights, enforced by lawsuits, is more efficient and effective than the conventional approach to regulation. The more complex the world, Richard Epstein argues, the less likely are lawmakers and rule writers to know how things interact and to be able to anticipate possible problems. As a law becomes more complex, it becomes increasingly bureaucratic and rigid, and less efficient and effective."

1469. Fred Smith (Pres., Competitive Enterprise Inst.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 388-9.
"A major theme that unites this book is the realization that while many of the stresses placed on this earth are the result of human activities (that is, that humans are part of the problem facing earth), human-centered solutions offer the only hope of resolving these problems. Stephen Edwards makes that point most eloquently in his comment: 'Faith in fundamental human respect for the environment leads me to believe that far more biodiversity will be conserved if people are given rights to use wild resources that if we continue our present course. "'

1470. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY TOOLS (U.S. Office of Tech. Assessment), Sept., 95.60-1.
"It is assumed that under this type of market system, firms will choose the least expensive means of pollution control."

1471. Tomasz Zylicz (Prof.. Eco.. Warsow U.) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 95, 162.
"A competitive market is a superior mechanism for calculating equilibrium prices by revealing people's preferences and unraveling what entails the least costs of providing goods or services. In this capacity it has never been surpassed by any other institution."

1472. Christopher Flavin (V.P.. Worldwatch lnst.) in SUN WORLD, Mar.. 95, 7.
"Technologies such as fuel cells, compact fluorescent lamps. wind turbines, and PV are still in the early stages of what is likely to be an extended period of cost reduction. Total production of wind turbines. for example was less than 2,000 units a year in the early nineties. Some of the most rapid cost gains are likely to come in photovoltaics, which have dropped 33% in price for each doubling of cumulative production since 1975. The faster these markets grow, the more economical the technologies will become."

1473. Edward Helme (Dir., Ctr. for Clean Air Policy) in HSE HRGS: TECH, ENVIRON, & FINANCIAL ISSUES RAISED BY INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE ELECTRICITY MKTS, Mar. 28. 96. 69.
"Economic and environmental progress can go hand in hand and market-based solutions are our best hope for real sustainable progress."

1479. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95, 74.
"In the United States, R&D spending through 1992 substantially exceeded the amount the federal energy tax credit cost the Treasury. This R&D expenditure has generated an insignificant amount of electricity. But state and federal market incentives encouraged the installation of nearly 17,1000 wind turbines in California from 1981 through 1987, most of which are still in commercial service."

1475. INT'L. SOLAR ENERGY INTELLIGENCE REPORT, June 10. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"Saying solar collectors for heating water comprise 95 percent of the solar industry, with photovoltaics accounting for the remainder, Holstein explained his point of view. 'Our philosophy on the solar industry, along with the oil and gas industry, is that products should stand alone.' he said. 'We think it's a very tenuous existence to depend on government"'

1476. INT'L. SOLAR ENERGY INTELLIGENCE REPORT, June 10, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), 1.
"Solar Tax Credits Disastrous 'So, Pres. Jimmy Garter created special tax credits for solar thermal companies,' Holstein continued, during a June 5 interview. 'The tax credits brought out all the tin men, who were selling things, then brightening up invoices so that with the tax credits they would have nothing to show. That artificial situation resulted in overcapacity by 1985. There were more than 200 manufacturers. and the industry collapsed. 'When government funds are eliminated from an industry, as they always are, you're left with collapsed industry."

131

1477. INT'L. SOLAR ENERGY INTELLIGENCE REPORT, June 10, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/5/97), I.
"Holstein acknowledged, 'We're antithetical to the general solar positions. Their position is, they cannot accomplish what they do without the help of the government, Holstein said during an interview. 'We say market forces will decide the efficacy of a product,' he said. "We have a viable product that's saleable and useful. And it happens to be environmentally friendly,' Holstein concluded."

1478. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96. 780.
"The General Accounting Office's review of business tax credits also indicated cases of abuse. The study pointed to Internal Revenue Service reports of a large number of 'inappropriate tax benefit claims and the use of the credit in alleged abusive tax shelter schemes. "'

1479. Daniel Rich (Prof., Urban Affairs, U. DE) in IMPLEMENTATION SOLAR THERMAL TECH., 96, 779.
"A potentially serious criticism of the tax credits is that they may discourage least-cost alternatives within solar energy markets. By supporting some solar technologies and excluding others, they have the potential of leading markets to higher-cost designs and away from less expensive options (like passive solar design)."

1480. David Roodman (Staff, World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1996, 96, 175-6.
"Regulations are increasingly being pushed beyond their limits. Because they focus on means rather than ends. they tend to discourage innovation."

1481. Jean-Philippe Barde (Admin.. OECD Envir. Directorate) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS. 95. 207.
"A major limitation of regulation is that it is static and lacks incentive. Regulations and standards, laboriously negotiated. are not likely to evolve rapidly. For instance. technical progress will become embodied in new regulations and standards only alter a long time."

1482. Ronald Bailey (Contrib. Ed., Reason Mag.) in THE TRUE STATE OF THE PLANET, 95, 3.
"The greatest problem with the first wave has been its solutions, which involve the top-down imposition of laws and regulations, some of which, in turn, impair the capacity of people to change their behavior on their own. This seems paradoxical. but it is all too often true."

1483.  The Energy Fndn. (San Francisco, CA), 1995 REPORT, 95.3. 
"The second dilemma comes from the difficulty of steering new technological development. Environmental regulators have long seen. in the laboratory, technologies that could solve many problems. But few of these technologies make it to market. Efforts to compel the development and propagation of technologies are often unsuccessful."

1484. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci.. Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 35.
"Bruce Ackennan and William Hassler, in their criticism of the 1977 Clean Air Act, charge that imposing technological controls on all new stationary sources made policy 'in an ecological vacuum--without a sober effort to define the costs and benefits of designing one or another technology into the plants of the future."

1485. Chauncey Starr (Pres. Emer.. Electric Power Rsrch. lnst.) in DEADALUS, Summer, 96, 246-7.
"This energy scenario emphasizes our present social responsibility to maintain viable roles for every feasible future energy option. especially nuclear power. No single fuel will satisfy needs for the next two centuries. and promoting a single path is irresponsible and grossly deceptive to the public. For example, to go beyond the generous solar and wind estimate given above, the energy storage costs (and their inefficiencies) would drain the world's capital sources."

1486. Denny Ellennan (Ex. Dir.. Ctr. Energy & Envir. Policy Rsrch., MIT) in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan). July, 95, 43.
"Stringent requirements on new facilities and vehicles increase the value and prolong the life of that equipment and only retard the replacement over time. That leads to lessening the rate of introduction of more efficient and less polluting equipment."

1487. Bruce Pastemack (Sr. V.P., Booz, Allen & Hamilton, Mgt. Consulting firm) in SEN HRGS: DOMESTIC PETROLEUM PRODUCTION & INT'L SUPPLY, Mar. 8, 95, 175.
"In the 1970s, the U.S. government tried to force conversion to coal. After legislating regulations, and significant economic dislocation, the government recognized that it was mandating something that was both less beneficial environmentally and was raising doubts about the future availability of natural gas for use in industry and in power generation. Thus is a good example of the problems of having governments attempt to create fuel choice fur industry."

1488.  The Energy Fndn. (San Francisco, CA), 1995 REPORT, 95, 16. 
"Regulations are not sufficient, and they may not even be in ideal method to promote revolutionary new technologies. We need a complement, in the form of market-driven programs. We must have coordinated purchasing consortiums if we are to have a chance of making electric vehicle technology a commercial reality in the next decade."

1489. Hoist Siebert (Pres., Kiel Inst. World Eco., Germany). ECONOMICS OFTHE ENVIR., 95, 129.
"The regulatory approach requires a set of emission rules that apply to all emitters of a specific pollutant. The policymaker planes the economic subsystems by using a general approach, and thus he is not able to take into account particular differences. Therefore, the regulatory approach is inefficient."

1490. Zachary Smith (Prof., Pol. Sci.. N. AZ U.), THE ENVIR. POLICY PARADOX. 95, 3 I.
"A third approach to dealing with common pool problems, and an alternative often suggested to command and control strategies, is the use of taxes or effluent charges or some other type of monetary measure that would provide polluters with an incentive to find the most cost-efficient means of limiting their pollution."

1491. Tim Jackson (Assoc. Fellow. Stockholm Envir. Inst.), MATERIAL CONCERNS. 96, 152.
"Environmental regulation has traditionally played a major role in the policy framework which governments use to moderate industrial and consumer behavior. Examples of environmental regulation include setting limits on emissions from industrial chimneys and pipelines; and banning the use of hazardous materials or their disposal in particular places. Because they are cast in terms of bans and limits. regulations are often seen as a rigid and sometimes inefficient way of achieving environmental protection. Generally speaking, regulation has gone hand in hand with the limited end-of-pipe approach to environmental protection."

1492. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed.. Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,328.
"Cost-benefit logic in environmental control took a hard hit when Michael Pompili, a health official for Columbus, Ohio, published a report that has circulated widely in policy-making quarters. Pompili estimated that in 1991 Columbus spent $62 million of its $591 million budget to satisfy environmental regulations but that the expenses created only tiny benefits."

1493. Jean-Philippe Barde (Admin., OECD Envir. Directorate) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 95. 207.
"Finally, regulations are costly, not only at the enforcement level. but mainly because they are not efficient in economic terms. This is why economic instruments (in particular. taxes, charges and tradeable permits) are being increasingly introduced in environmental policies."

1494. Sharon Beder (Prof., Tech. Studies, U. Wollongong, Australia) in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, Jan. 96, 55.
"Legal standards might ensure firms meet particular targets. but that having met them there is no incentive to go beyond them, whereas with the financial incentives provided by price-based instruments 'businesses are constantly motivated to improve their financial performance by developing technologies that allow them to reduce their output of pollutants'. 'Properly structured economic instruments encourage industry to go beyond compliance and engage in continuous innovation and improvement."'

1495. Tim Jackson (Assoc. Fellow, Stockholm Envir. lnst.), MATERIAL CONCERNS, 96, 154.
"Regulations are usually seen as a more direct means of intervening to ensure environmental protection. Taxes and subsidies are often regarded as a more flexible (emphasis in original) way of encouraging improved environmental performance in a market economy."

132

1496. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 192.
"Like all other regulatory programs affecting the U .S. environment. the CAA and FWPCAA are based on the standards-and-enforcement approach to regulation, sometimes called 'command and control.' The structure and philosophy of this approach create many of the characteristic processes and problems associated with govemmental management of the environment. In recent years this regulatory philosophy has been increasingly criticized as economically inefficient. excessively complicated, and counterproductive. Regulatory horror stories abound. convincing believers that a better approach lies in less direct govemmental involvement and more economic incentives to encourage pollution abatement."

1497.  Brian Doherty (Asst. Ed., Reason) in REASON, May. 96, 33. 
"Command-and-control has large bureaucratic costs, can stifle innovations, and doesn't encourage anyone to do any better than the law demands."

1498. Jean-Philippe Barde (Admin., OECD Envir. Directorate) in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS. 95. 216.
"Governments, faced with growing demand for better environmental quality and with increasingly complex issues, are seeking more efficient policy tools and additional financial means. Generally speaking, direct regulation of societal processes seems to have reached a level of decreasing efficiency resulting in calls for 'deregulation', regulatory reforms, 'self-regulation' or 'voluntary agreements.' In fact. the enforcement of regulations itself turns out to be difficult, costly and. in many cases, insufficient."

1499. John Hemphill (Staff Bus. Council for a Sustainable Future) in EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS, 96, 55.
"Policies, to the extent practical, should be market based, not relying on command and control. We recognize there is a role for regulation, but we should be looking for market approaches, because such approaches are more likely to attract private investment. ICs obvious that private capital will be necessary if we're going to successfully address the climate problem."

15{)0. Sharon Beder (Prof, Tech. Studies. U. Wollongong, Australia) in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. Jan. 96, 58.
"Grabosky, argues that market-based instruments are more likely to be perceived to be legitimate by industry, and therefore less likely to encounter resistance. than 'command-and-control' methods because marketbased instruments accord 'industry greater decision-making autonomy in the resolution of its problems."

1501. Dave Skidmore (Staff Assoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97}.
"But several economists said there was a limit on how long this best-of-all-possible worlds economy could continue. The unemployment rate should be climbing again by the end of the year in response to the Fed's tightening, they said. 'It stretches credulity to think we can continue with a tight labor market for an indefinite period of time without having any upward pressure on costs,' said economist Norman Robertson of Smithfield Trust Co. in Pittsburgh. 'We would be very, very unwise to be complacent now and say inflation is dead."'

1502. John Berry (Staff) et al. in WASH. POST. Apt. 5.97 (Online, Nexis. 4/6/97).
"The strong U.S. economy kept churning out jobs and lifting wages last month, pushing the nation's unemployment rate down to 5.2 percent, the Labor Department reported yesterday. While workers obviously are benefiting from all the added jobs and higher wages, the report only heightened concerns among some investors, analysts and government policymakers that the pace of economic growth may be spurring inflation."

1503. Jane Seaberry (Staff) in DALLAS MORNING NEWS, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The nation's unemployment rate edged down further last month with the strongest hints yet that wage inflation may be on the rise."

1504. BUS. WEEK. Apt. 7.97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The report also played into one of Greenspan's often-stated concerns about future inflation: The era of job insecurity, which had restrained wage growth, is ending. The Board said households were increasingly upbeat about job prospects with 33. 1% saying that jobs are 'easy to get,' the highest rate since 1989 (chart)."

1505. Dean Foust (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"What's more, worker anxiety--one of Greenspan's pet indicators--remains high by some measures. Greenspan also expects a surging dollar to help cool the economy by crimping export growth. And with Japan still in a funk and Europe struggling to salvage an ill-planned merger of its currencies, the Fed sees the dollar climbing higher."

1506. Dave Skidmore (Staff Assoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Rising interest rams, which already have crimped the stock market, will take some steam out of the economy by the end of the year, many analysts believe."

1507. Dave Skidmore (StaffAssoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'This Fed is trying to stop inflation from breaking out. The way to do that is not to fiddle around, but to be more aggressive, so I think there will be more actions, starting in May,' said economist Robert G. Dealcrick of Northern Trust Co. in Chicago."

1508.  AUSTIN-AM. STATESMAN, Jan. 15, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"Consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in 1996, the biggest increase in six years. But aside from higher energy and food costs, the underlying inflation rate turned in its best performance in 31 years."

1509. Robert Hershey (Staff) in NY TIMES, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/6/97).
"And Ms. Yellen (chief economic adviser to President Clinton and former member of the Federal Reserve Board), while acknowledging it to be a crude gauge, said that 4 percent wage growth and 3 percent consumer inflation over the last year should be regarded as in line with productivity improvement, which means that companies should be able to sustain decent profits without having to raise prices."

1510. Jane Seaberry (Staff) in DALLAS MORNING NEWS. Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'We think U.S. companies will be raising prices or trying to raise prices more and more in 1997 and 1998,' Ms. Kleinman said. 'Is it going to be rapid like it was in the '70s or late '80s? Apparently not. But some acceleration in the inflation outlook appears likely. And that's enough to prompt the Fed to nudge up rates a little bit."'

1511. Robert Hershey (Staff) in NY TIMES, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
'"I really don't see cost-push inflation in these data,' said Lincoln F. Anderson, economist for the Fidelity mutual fund group in Boston. 'Companies are not reporting to us that there's a significant earnings squeeze from rising labor costs."'

1512. John Berry (Staff) et al. in WASH. POST, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"On that basis, Wall Street initially interpreted the economic numbers negatively, sending the most widely watched measure of stocks down nearly 72 points early in the day. But the market rallied later, with small company stocks and those of many technology companies showing particular strength. The widely watched Dow Jones industrial average of 30 blue-chip stocks closed at 6526.07, up almost 49 points from Thursday. It had shed about 400 points in the previous five sessions."

1513. John Berry (Staff) et al. in WASH. POST, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Some Wall Street investors--worried that such robust job growth will fuel inflation---saw good news in the fact that the number of jobs created was less than expected, said Hugh A. Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp., a brokerage firm in Albany, N.Y. 'If the Fed is faced with an economy that's growing, but not accelerating, that's comforting,' Johnson said, adding that the Fed may find enough comfort in the report to hold off on raising interest rates in May."

1514. SACRAMENTO BEE, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The national unemployment rate edged down to 5.2 percent in March--matching its lowest level in eight years--as the reinvigorated U.S. economy continued to generate jobs for legions of Americans. The widely awaited Labor Department report, the first measure of the economy's Performance last month, showed a relatively modest increase of 175,000 jobs, payroll growth far more subdued than that expected by Wall Street analysts."

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1515. Dean Foust (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apt. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Some business leaders protested the nudge. But others, such as Chrysler Chairman and CEO Robert J. Eaton, support a preemptive move. 'I don't think a quarter of a point is going to have any effect [on auto sales],' Eaton says. 'We won't recognize it in the spring selling season."'

1516. Dean Foust (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"These trends are evidence of what some call the 'new economy.' Global competition, the rise of highly productive information industries, and unrelenting corporate downsizing promote faster growth and lower unemployment without triggering inflation. Greenspan isn't so sure the rules have changed permanently, but for now, he's not ready to jam on the brakes."

1517. Dean Foust (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"AI the signals were there for a classic anti-inflationary rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Sure enough, on Mar. 25. the Fed nudged up the federal funds rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans from 5.25% to 5.5%. Other rates rose in tandem. But this may not be the classic scenario. For one thing, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan had gone to great lengths-in congressional testimony and other speeches to telegraph the coming hike. When it came, in fact, the move was so heavily discounted that by Mar. 26 the markets seemed to have shrugged it off."

1518. Dean Foust (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apt. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"But those who study Greenspan closely believe the Fed chief might break precedent by halting after one increase. Why? He's betting on an imminent slowdown: he voted for the Mar. 25 hike as a cheap insurance policy in case he's wrong. Indeed, for nine months the chief had fended off calls by hawkish colleagues to raise rates, since he was convinced a slowdown was coming. And even though consumer confidence in February soared to an eight-year high and orders for durable goods have remained robust, there have been few signs of price surges (charts)."

1519.  Mike McNamee (Staid et al. in BUS. WEEK, May 20, 96, 30. 
"Unlike the financial markets, the Fed isn't upset by good news. Rather than enforce a speed limit on the economy, as it's frequently accused of doing, the central bank wants to let the expansion run until it sees warning signs of rising inflation. And with businesses adding new production capacity at a 3.8% annual clip, Greenspan & Co. see little pressure on prices, outside of unusual spikes in grain and gasoline prices. The rise in bond rates also will make the Fed's job easier, cooling the economy later this year before it can overhear. Put it all together and 'the odds strongly favor moderate growth and contained inflation,' says Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Edward C. Boehne. Translation: Don't look for the Fed to move short-term interest rates either up or down before Election Day."

1520. NY TIMES, July 20, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/4/97).
"Treasury prices rallied on Thursday after Mr. Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee that he expected economic growth to slow this year, which would forestall the need for higher interest rates. Yet the Fed chairman also warned that the central bank might have to raise interest rates anyway to insure a slowdown, and it was that view that was the focus of attention in the market yesterday."

1521. NATION, Mar. 11, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Greenspan's fanatical free-market career reflects his publicly stated hatred of government restraints (he believes that S&Ls, banks and Wall Street should be free of all regulations), his contempt for do-gooders (he blames antipoverty and pro-environment programs for 80 to 90 percent of inflation) and his fundamental creed that, as he has written, 'the greed of the businessman... is the unexcelled protector of the consumer.' If any one statement reveals the mind of Greenspan, it was his response to a 1992 Federal Reserve study that found that in the core Reagan years the richest I percent of families increased their share of net private wealth from 31 percent to 37 percent--at the expense of all other social strata." [Ellipsis in original]

1522. HOUSTON CHRON., May 3, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"' Whenever possible, regulators should use approaches to regulation and supervision that include or simulate market techniques and signals,' Greenspan said. Greenspan did not discuss Fed monetary policy or the economy in remarks prepared for delivery to a Chicago Federal Reserve Bank conference on bank structure and competition. 'Importantly, our soundness standards should be no more or no less stringent than those the marketplace would impose,' he said."

1523. Alan Greenspan (Chrmn., Fed. Res. Bd.) in FEDERAL NEWS SERV., Jan. 2 l, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Indeed, by pursuing a policy of low and stable inflation, the Federal Reserve is doing all that it can with reference to this economy. Responsibility to do more rests with the Congress. In order to search for a remedy for slow trend growth or long-term growth, it's important to identity its origins. This trend growth is only one-half of its pace during the 60s. A major cause has been the slowdown in productivity growth since the early '70s. And 1 don't think it's accidental that this productivity decline also occurred at the same time that entitlement spending exploded and that regulatory burdens grew. Both of these have had an adverse impact on national savings and investment. That subject I have heard Alan Greenspan speak to on many occasions--savings and investment needs of the country."

1524. David R. Karp (Grad. Stud., Dept. of Soc.. U. WA) et al., HUMAN RELATIONS, May. 95. xxx.
"Market-based strategies have an advantage over command-and-control approaches because they can reduce pollution more efficiently. Command-and-control strategies are almost always designed to impose uniform requirements on everyone bur, despite the parsimony of uniformity, it creates an inefficiency. This inefficiency arises because the incremental marginal cost of removing each pound of pollution is different for every source yet the command-and-control regulation requires everyone to achieve the same proportional level of control or numerical target."

1525. Clinton Andrews (Princeton & Envir. Corp.). ENERGY POLICY, Vol. 23, 95, 885.
"The cost of complying with environmental regulations is a significant part of total economic activity, representing 2% of GNP in the US in 1990 (EPA, 1991 ). In the electric power sector, current regulations can add 10% or more to the cost of constructing a power plant. and also increase operating costs. Suboptimal compliance represents a threat with measurable consequences for individual firms and the economy as a whole. Yet in the electric power sector the deck seems stacked against efficient compliance: environmental standards are moving targets, utility regulators apply backward-looking prudency tests. and utilities adopt a reactive environmental posture."

1526. Scott Holman (Small Bus. Chamber of Commerce)in FEDERAL NEWS SER., Feb. 28, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"The cost of complying with federal regulations and paperwork burdens is skyrocketing, not just in dollars, but in time spent figuring out how to comply. Conservative estimates place the cost of federal regulations on the American economy at close to $600 billion annually, or just under l0 percent of the gross national product. Additionally. according to the federal government's own statistics, Americans now spend close to seven billion hours annually filling out forms, answering mandatory survey questions, and compiling records that the federal government may or may not use. Moreover, the current federal regulatory model is adversarial, legalistic, prescriptive, and penalistic. It is a centralized, 'command-and-control' system that imposes inflexible rules on an increasingly complex and diverse society, backed up by the threat of civil and criminal penalties."

1527. BUS. WEEK, July 8, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"There are those who regard 2% to 2.5% growth as if it were some iron law of nature. For instance, some members of the Federal Reserve, joined by a Cassandra-like chorus of bond-market vigilantes, fear that any attempt to boost growth above that rate will only reignite inflation."

1528. BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Before reaching their decision. the central bankers likely discussed the foreign sector as well. And they were probably interested in both sides of the trade ledger: Exports can provide strength to economic growth. while imports can act as a safety valve for overtaxed U.S. capacity. And recently, cheaper imports have helped to keep goods inflation under wraps."

134

1529. BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"However, import prices are unlikely to repeat their 1996 performance. Although the trade-weighted dollar has soared more than 5% in the first quarter, further gains will be harder to come by. The Bundesbank has already started to voice concerns that the dollar is too strung against the German mark. And Greenspan himself cautioned in his Mar. 20 testimony that 'although nonoil import prices should remain subdued in 1997... their dampening effects on U.S. inflation probably will not be as great as in 1996."' [Ellipsis in original]

1530. BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The Fed realizes that in the short run, cheaper imported goods will provide an offset to home-grown inflation. Merchandise import prices, excluding oil, have been falling steadily since late 1995, a result of the stronger dollar. In the 12 months ended in February, nonoil prices were down 1.9%. The big reason has been the dollar which. when compared to a basket of currencies from the major U.S. trading partners. has risen nearly 19% since hitting a low in April, 1995."

1531. Velisarios Kattoulas (Staff) in INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Apt. 5. 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/6/97).
"Mr. Rubin has consistently maintained that a strong dollar is in America's interests because it keeps down U.S. inflation and interest rates. although he has toned down his enthusiasm in recent weeks in an apparent effort to prevent the dollar from rising farther."

1532. Dave Skidmore (Staff Assoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'There are lots of jobs, and employers are paying more. From an employee's perspective, this is a wonderful labor market.' said economist Mark Zandi of Regional Financial Associates in West Chester, Pa. 'Unfortunately. it's too much of a good thing because it ultimately will result in accelerating inflation."'

1533. James Bernstein (Staff} in NEWSDAY, April 5.97 (Online. Nexis. 4/6/97).
"What's good news for workers is worrisome to Wall Street. however. 'There's evidence of upward pressure on wages. and that's very nerve-racking,' said Hugh Johnson. chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. 'Labor is picking up a little muscle."'

1534. James Bernstein (Staff) in NEWSDAY, April 5.97 (Online. Nexis. 4/6/97).
"A robust U.S. economy put another 175,000 people into .jobs across the country last month. and at higher pay. according to government reports released Friday. The good news initially caused tremors on Wall Street. which fears a stronger economy will prompt another hike in interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average took a 72-point slide in early trading but recovered and closed with a gain of 48.72 points, to 6,526.07. But for the week it dropped 215 points. and now is off 8 percent from its all-time high on March 11."

1535. Robert Hurtado (Stall) in NY TIMES. Apt. 5, 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/6/97).
"Market participants were concerned about data in the report showing a higher-than-expected gain of 5 cents, or four-tenths of 1 percent, in average hourly earnings. 'The average hourly earnings monthly gain of four-tenths of 1 percent does appear to suggest that the impact of previous demand side pressures is finally beginning to impact the overall economy in a wider fashion,' said Anthony Chan, vice president and chief economist at the Banc One Investment Advisers Corporation in Columbus. Ohio."

1536. Jane Seaberry (Staff) in DALLAS MORNING NEWS. Apt. 5.97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The markets fear accelerating wages could soon lead to higher consumer prices, which have hovered risen between 2.5 percent and 3 percent annually during the past five years. The specter of inflation would then lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, analysts said."

1537. James Bernstein (Staff) in NEWSDAY, April 5, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/6/97).
"Analysts believe that reports of higher wages will prompt the Federal Reserve Board to increase interest rates again when it meets May 20. The Fed raised short-term rates a quarter of a point last week, the first such increase since 1994. The recent stock market gyrations were set off by the Fed's action."

1538. John Berry (Staff et al. in WASH. POST, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
Rising interest rates slow economic growth by making it morn expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money. A number of analysts said yesterday's report suggests the Fed is likely to increase rates again at its next policymaking session May 20."

1539. Dave Skidmore (StaffAssoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"That's what prompted the Federal Reserve to boost short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point last week. Fear of further increases has rammed stock prices down and sent the bond market into a dither, pushing long-term rates on bonds and mortgages toward eight-month highs."

1540. Dave Skidmore (StaffAssoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Rising interest rates make it more expensive to borrow for home and car purchases and business investment. Eventually that should dampen the economy's brisk rate of growth, eliminating excessive demand that could fuel inflation."

1541. David Ranii (Staff NEWS & OBSERVER, Mar. 9, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"It's no wonder that Greenspan is considered by many to be the most powerful man in Washington. As head of the Federal Reserve, he is steward of the nation's money supply. If he and his Fed colleagues decide to tighten the supply by raising interest rates, the effects ripple across the economy in the form of higher mortgage and credit card payments. If they loosen the reins by lowering rates, prosperity may be around the corner. And if Greenspan and his colleagues guess wrong and zig when they should zag. the result is a recession--or worse."

1542. BUS. WEEK, Dec. 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Some economists worry that the New Economy is still vulnerable to inflation, especially if Japan and Europe pull out of their slumps in 1997. 'The global economy could be so strong that it will finally give you inflation,' worries David Hale, global chief economist at Zurich Insurance. Higher inflation could cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, pulling the markets down with it. The alternative, a sharp economic slowdown. could be equally distressing to investors. While the odds of a recession over the next year are low, slow growth could force companies to cut prices. badly hurting profits. 'The big worry is not the old risk of reflation, it's the new risk of deflation,' says Edward E. Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell."

1543. Jeffrey Laderman (Staff in BUS. WEEK, Apt. 7, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/6/97).
"For the past two years, making money in mutual funds seemed no harder than writing a check. But 1997 is unfolding as a different story. Interest rates are pushing higher, small-cap stocks are heading lower, and prices for high-tech stocks are in a near-meltdown. As a result, fund returns earned so far this year are barely in the black. The total return for the average equity mutual fund is just 1.1%, vs. 7.1% for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (through Mar. 24). Fund returns are prepared for Business Week by Morningstar Inc."

1544. Mike McNamee (Staff et al. in BUS. WEEK, May 20, 96, 31.
"By midyear, however, higher interest rates could start to bit. The rise in bond rates since January has already choke off mortgage applications, especially for refinancings, leaving consumers less flexibility to deal with near-record debt. High rates will squeeze household and business spending. But even with a slower second half, GDP is likely to grow up 2.3% for the year. 'Six years into an expansion, this sort of sustained growth looks very good,' says Lehman Brothers Inc. chief economist Allen M. Sinai."

1545. James Madigan (Staff in BUS. WEEK, June 10, 96, 29.
"Like the storm clouds gathering in the summer hit movie Twister, the bond market's behavior so far in 1996 spells nothing but trouble. Higher rates won't send cows flying through the sky, but they will restrain economic growth in the second half."

135

1546.  Thomas PalIcy (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96, 52.
"The Federal Reserve is constantly trying to persuade itself that inflation is accelerating in order to justify its predisposition to raise rates. This is a dangerous game: given the fragility of the current economy, a rate increase could halt the recovery and send the economy into a tailspin. It is not clear that reversing interest rates could then straighten the economy out again. This is surely the lesson of the last recession, which required three years' worth of interest-rate cuts to produce a meaningful recovery."

1547.  Thomas Palley (Stall) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96, 58. 
"The past twenty-five years have witnessed a persistent weakening of structural conditions within the U.S. economy. This weakening has been predicated on changes in labor markets which have undermined the position of American workers, polarizing income distribution and increasing job insecurity. the effects of these changes have been obscured by a debt binge by households and government, and by favorable demographic factors. However, households now face increasing financial constraints, government faces political constraints, and the demographic situation is changing radically. At the same time. in the face of increased capital mobility, wages continue to decline and job insecurity widens. These are the grounds for believing that the next economic recession could spiral into a depression."

1548.  Thomas PalIcy (Staff in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96, 50. 
"These problems would be bad enough in an economy with strong labor unions and low unemployment, but they are likely to be worsened in an economy in which labor is weak and companies not only lay off workers but also force wage concessions from those not laid off Widespread wage concessions could weaken demand to the point where mass layoffs occur. Such a possibility now haunts the U.S. economy, and that is why the next recession may turn into a depression."

1549. FINANCIAL TIMES, Feb. 28, 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/4/97).
"But the fear at the Fed is that when this modest change of policy does begin, the stock market may react adversely. The current high valuation of stocks, as measured by dividend yields relative to bond yields, makes them highly sensitive to any changes in monetary policy. The markets might interpret an upward move in interest rates as the start of a more serious tightening, along the lines of 1994-95. A collapse in stock prices could complicate the task of adjusting policy to meet the demands of the real economy."

1550. INDEPENDENT, Sept. 29, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/4/97), A2.
"But circumstances have changed. 'The last time we had a large stock market crash the economic impact was positive because government immediately boosted the economy,' said Andrew Sentance, professor of economics at London Business School and a former adviser to the Chancellor. 'This time the authorities may hold back on cutting interest rates and stimulating the banking system."

1551. Paul Papayoanou (Prof, Pol. Sci., UCSD) in INT'L. SECURITY. Spring, 96, 75.
"Whether economic interdependence will have a pacifying effect in the great power system now that the bipolar Cold War era has waned depends on the pattern and level of economic ties. If we see a collapse of the international economy like that of the 1930s, the theory suggests that an unstable balance-of-power system is quite possible. The emergence of a Hitlerian threat is unlikely to be met by a stabilizing counter-balancing effort. just as in the thirties, for leaders will be constrained by domestic-oriented concerns. which will limit their capacity to mobilize and will undercut their ability to make credible commitments."

1552. DOE, ENERGY, Nov., 95, 7.
"The DOE also will assist industry in preserving the nuclear option for future generations by participating in the development of improved, standardized, and certified advanced light-water reactor designs that offer improved active and passive safety systems, simplified construction and operation, and greater economy."

1553. DOE, ENERGY, Nov., 95, 7.
"Nuclear energy supplies more than 20% of the nation's electricity supply. Production costs continue to decrease, as plants increase their efficiency and production capability. Many of these plants are expected to seek renewed licenses from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for an additional 20 years of operation. However, some of them will close at. or even before, the end of their current license terms. The DOE will continue to assist utilities in extending the safe, efficient, economical, and reliable operational lifetimes of existing nuclear energy plants in the U.S.'

1554. DOE, ENERGY, Nov., 95.7.
"In May 1995, the NRC issued a new procedure for applying to extend the license of a nuclear energy plant, now set at 40 years. The NRC's rule streamlines and simplifies the operating license renewal process by eliminating unnecessary requirements, reducing the number of plant systems and components subject to review, and focusing attention on significant safety issues. By 1999, the DOE's cost-shared nuclear energy program will produce four NRC-certified advanced light-water reactor designs with passive safety systems and simplified construction and operation available for the marketplace."

1555. Yael Abouhalkah (Staff), KS CITY STAR, June 2, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"Efforts in the Reagan and Bush years to jumpstart the industry with new, streamlined regulations went nowhere. While federal aid has continued, the industry has not developed the long-promised safe and cheaper version of nuclear power. Meanwhile, renewable energies are positioning themselves to continue to erode nuclear's importance in the production of power."

1556. Frances Cairncross (Ed., Economist), GREEN INC., 95. 142-3.
"In many parts of the world, not least much of the United States, coal is still nuclear's main rival. Coal has not benefited from technological advance as much as gas has; in its case, the main changes have been in ways to reduce its environmental impact. These tend to make coal costlier, not cheaper. But the recession, and in some countries the dash for gas, have helped to reduce the price of coal. Lord Marshall, an energetic supporter of nuclear power, sums up the position in many countries: 'You can't make nuclear power economic until natural gas has started to run out. Anywhere where there is natural gas, nuclear power will have to mark time."'

1557. Marvin Fertel, FED. NEWS SERVICE, Feb. 28, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97 ).
"The benefits of expanded nuclear power are significant as emissions the global need for electricity continues to grow at a rapid pace. Nuclear power should provide a portion of that electricity demand while improving the quality of life and reducing atmospheric emissions."

1558. Marvin Fertel, FED. NEWS SERVICE, Feb. 28, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97 ).
"Nuclear power is an important component of America's energy portfolio, generating more than 20 percent of our electricity enough to serve the equivalent of 65 million homes. Nuclear power plants also play a critical role for electric utilities in reducing harmful air emissions to meet standards established in the Clean Air Act. Nuclear energy is the single largest contributor to reduced carbon dioxide emissions from the electric utility industry ."

1559. AUSTIN AMERICA-STATESMAN, Aug. 28, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97 ).
"To meet the nation's growing demand for power, while at the same time controlling pollution and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, will be very difficult. We will need all the energy sources in our arsenal, and that includes nuclear power."

1560. Robert Evans (Staff), REUTER EUROPEAN COMMUNITY REPORT, July 16, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"'If we are serious about combating global warming, we must retain and develop the nuclear operation and encourage renewable energy sources as a matter of urgency,' said the letter from the forum's director-general Roger Hayes."

1561. Benjamin Stevenson (Prof., NJ Inst. of Tech.), ASBURY PARK PRESS, June 24, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"As fossil fuel use grows around the world, nuclear energy technology development will help protect Americans from the looming environmental consequences. Worldwide, nuclear energy provides 17 percent of electricity supply and avoids the emission of more than 450 million metric tons of carbon every year."

1562. Barclay Jones (Staff), W1 STATE JRNL., July 21, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Today, France gets more than 75 percent of its electricity from nuclear power and exports nuclear-generated electricity to other European countries. Also, because France uses relatively little fossil fuel to produce electricity, its per capita output of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is the lowest of any major industrialized country."

136

1563. STAR TRIBUNE (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Concerns over greenhouse gases are growing and there are few energy options other than nuclear that don't emit carbon dioxide."

1564. DEFENSE WEEK, Sept. 5, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The panel rejected contentions that reprocessing and plutonium recycling were fundamentally incompatible with nuclear nonproliferation. To the contrary, it said recycling plutonium for use in reactors--with appropriate international oversight--actually could provide greater protection against proliferation than vitrification or deep geologic burial of commercial spent fuel containing plutonium. It said buried spent fuel would become increasingly less radioactive over time, lowering barriers to potential proliferators.'

1565. DEFENSE WEEK, Sept. 5, 95 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The ANS panel, composed of 16 leading arms control and nuclear experts, made its recommendations in a soon-to-be-released report that echoed some of the same themes as a recent National Academy of Sciences study on disposition options for weapons plutonium. Most notably, the panel agreed with the National Academy of Sciences committee report that weapons plutonium represented a major global security threat warranting the quickest possible response by the U.S. and Russian governments."

1566. DEFENSE WEEK, Sept. 5, 95 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"The panel outlined a scenario in which each nation could choose its own path on nuclear power, with no barriers to those wanting to recycle plutonium. It said reprocessing and recycling also could be utilized to hold down the overall global inventory of spent fuel. thus reducing proliferation risks."

1567. David Kramer (Staff), INSIDE ENERGY WITH FEDERAL LANDS. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Graham said in an interview following a briefing on cleanup issues attended by task force members and their staffs. DOE and contractor representatives. 'Instead of always reacting to budget downsizings by DOE and Congress, we need to highlight what these sites will be doing in the next century,' he said. Graham said SRS' long-term role should include reprocessing DOE's spent nuclear fuel, as well as the much larger quantities of commercial reactor spent fuel, at the site's 'canyons.' Claims by the Clinton administration and environmental groups that reprocessing would invite proliferation are 'bogus,' he asserted."

1568. Shahron Chubin (Middle East Spec., Geneva Security Studies) in ORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95. 440.
"There are other considerations. The new nuclear weapon states are not likely to be as satisfied with the international order as the two superpowers, nor will they act as status quo powers. There is also the potential impact that proliferation in the South might have on the North. Japan or Germany might come to see such proliferation as detrimental to their own security and requiring the acquisition of their own nuclear weapons. Another serious consequence could come from the use of nuclear weapons; the global taboo, the 'tradition of non-use,' has created a threshold for nuclear weapons that separates them from other weapons. If the threshold were to be (frequently) broken. so too would the taboo. A buildup of nuclear weapons in the South would also probably halt or reverse the ongoing nuclear arms reductions in the North."

1569. Pat Coyne (Staff), NEW STATESMAN & SOCIETY, Aug. 4, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The huge arsenals of the superpowers have led to the assumption that nuclear wars are always terminal. The Mad doctrine (mutually assured destruction) has a logic that is utterly incontrovertible. But that logic is not infinitely extensible. At some level of conflict it may make sense to threaten to use nuclear weapons, and with threat comes the possibility of use."

1570. AUSTIN AMERICA-STATESMAN, Aug. 28, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"She ignores the fact that future nuclear plants will, by design, be much cheaper to build than the nuclear plants recently completed, that natural gas will rise sharply in price if we start to use a lot of it to generate electricity (there is just so much natural gas), and that the cost of wind power does not include the cost of storage or backup sources for when the wind doesn't blow."

1571. Hazel O'Leary (Sec. of Energy), FED. NEWS SERVICE, June 13. 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The U.S. power industry is the world's leader, poised to compete effectively for their fair share if our government works aggressively with host countries to privatize the electric utility sector and supports U.S. firms to meet the competition. Our engagement on the energy front enabled us to advance other interests of strategic importance to the United States, particularly in the nuclear arena. Energy is the prerequisite for economic growth that many in America take for granted. A strong energy infrastructure is the first step toward building lasting economic relationships with foreign countries in other areas."'

1572. Paul Barton (Staff), GANNETT NEWS SERVICE, Apt. 21, 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97).
"'Nuclear power plants are operating more safely, more productively and more competitively,' the Nuclear Energy Institute, the industry's public relations arm, contends in its current state-of-nuclear power assessment. Many academics second that statement. 'It's very clear. The record speaks for itself. It's the safest form of energy we have,' said Victor Ransom, professor of nuclear engineering at Purdue University ."

1573. Scot Powers (Staff) et al., COLUMBUS DISPATCH (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97 ).
"'The quality of operations in our plants, with few exceptions, should be looked at as models for the entire world on how you operate something complicated,' Miller said. 'We are doing one hell of a good job operating our plants, substantially better than before Three Mile Island.' Miller cited many differences--training, design. the use of accident containment systems in Western plants, and that Chernobyl operators took it on themselves to conduct an experiment that no one knowledgeable would have endorsed. 'If you had 10 commandments on how to design and operate a nuclear power plant' he said, 'they violated most--if not all--of them."'

1574. Charles Hosler (Staff). CHAPEL HILL HERALD. Feb. 3, 96 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97).
"Hopefully, the American public. as they became more knowledgeable about nuclear energy will appreciate the advantages of generating electricity from nuclear fission: it's clean. economical, secure. and a domestic source that can help preserve valuable natural resources for future generations. Is nuclear energy safe? No! No energy system for producing electricity on a large scale is safe. However, nuclear energy poses risks that are hundreds to thousands of times smaller than many of the risks we daily live with and pay no attention to."

1575. Michael Golay (Prof.. Nuclear Engineering. MIT) in NUCLEAR NEWS, Nov., 96, 24.
"To date, PBR has been employed in small-scale regulatory experiments concerned with reducing regulations that are burdensome and provide only small safety benefits (e.g.. containment leak rate testing. and quality assurance requirements). Under performance-based regulation. the documented pedigree required of 'safety-grade' plant components--required to show that they have been manufactured using NCR-approved facilities and processes--would be replaced by test data indicating the expected reliability of the components."'

1576. Michael Golay (Prof., Nuclear Engineering, MIT) in NUCLEAR NEWS, Nov., 96, 26.
"PBR offers a great opportunity to improve both nuclear power safety and economics. Creating a successful system will require substantial effort and resources, but is worth the effort. An important substantial reason for this is that the success of PBR may offer a great opportunity for improving the economic performance, as well as the safety performance. of existing nuclear power plants."

1577. Charles Hosler (Stall'), CHAPEL HILL HERALD, Feb. 3, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"The American public's concern about the release of radioactive materials has led to much misinformation about the risks of accidents at nuclear power plants."

1578. Charles Hosler (Staff), CHAPEL HILL HERALD, Feb. 3, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Recent research has shown that the release of radioactivity from coal combustion facilities and wood burning far exceeds that from nuclear power plants."

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1579. Charles Hosler (Staff), CHAPEL HILL HERALD. Feb. 3, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"Actually, waste disposal is one of nuclear energy 's great advantages! High level wastes contain about 99 percent of the radioactivity, but only about 1 percent of the volume, which equals that of about one to two aspirin tablets per person per year. These wastes can be completely removed from the biosphere and put back into the ground where, in 100 years, the wastes are less toxic than many naturally occurring ores; after 500 years, the wastes would be less toxic than the equivalent coal ash from the coal used to produce the same amount of electricity."

1580.  COLUMBUS DISPATCH. Sept. 7, 96 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97). 
"Our energy options are limited by supply and the environmental effects of coal, oil and gas burning and by the potentially catastrophic financial results of massive oil importation. Nuclear energy is one of our few good choices. When new plants are needed, they must be more efficient, less expensive and even safer than those operating today. Continuing advanced nuclear plant research and development will assure this."

1581. Gregg Taylor (Staff). NUCLEAR NEWS, Aug., 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97 ).
"Looking to the future. Charles E. Till. associate laboratory director for engineering research at Argonne National Laboratory. declared that. 'the sustainability of nuclear power lies in the management of plutonium.' He explained that, 'Recycle of uranium. with plutonium mixed in it. is the key to unlimited energy supply: It is the long term energy answer for those who utilize properly.'"

1582. Walter Mead (Presidential Fellow. World Policy lnst.) in LA TIMES, Apt. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'1 think we are going to have good first-quarter earnings on balance, which will provide a floor for market valuations.' Mr. Cleland said. 'And before the summer is over, the market will recognize that significant inflation is not out there.' Indeed. by late last week. some bargain hunters had started to scoop up technology and other small-cap stocks that have been so battered. On Friday. large-cap stocks rebounded, too. Mutual fund investors have been conditioned in recent years to buy when the market dips. in expectation of a rebound. Some investors apparently thought they saw the bottom last week."

1583. Gaith Alexander (NY Spec.) in SUNDAY TIMES, July 14, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Corporate profits. In 1994. earnings were growing 32%: in 1995. 19%. Those gains helped justify higher stock prices. Two weeks ago, Wall Street strategists were projecting only a 6% gain this year. Now estimates are being lowered daily as corporations describe surprisingly low profits for the past three months and predict tough conditions for profits in coming months. Huge technology companies have been a catalyst for the market-wide breakdown. Hewlett-Packard fell 12% Thursday following its earnings warning. 'Confidence is so fragile that when big names get hit you've got to wonder."'

1584. Dave Skidmore (StaffAssoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apt. 5, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'American workers are experiencing real gains while inflation remains in check,' said Janet Yellen. who chairs Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers. 'The economy is on a healthy balanced course... with all Americans increasingly sharing the benefits of that growth."' [Ellipsis in original]

1585. Robert Hershey (Staff) in NY TIMES. Apt. 5.97 (Online. Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'The economy is continuing on a path of' steady, sustainable expansion with strong job creation and low inflation,' Janet L. Yellen, chief economic adviser to President Clinton and a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, said in a statement. She added in an interview, '1 don't see any evidence of an acceleration."'

1586. BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"That's because the latest data from the first quarter continue to point to a vibrant economy fuel by domestic demand. Upbeat consumers are leading the charge, and order books of durable goods producers continue to swell (chart). Growth in real gross domestic product will understate this vigor, however, but that's only because the huge widening in the January trade gap was exaggerated by temporary factors."

1587. Guy Halverson (Staff) in CHR. SCI. MON., Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'The economy is in fantastic shape,' Ryding says. The Federal Reserve, which boosted short-term interest rates last month, 'is making a small policy adjustment,' seeking to break overly expansive growth and thus head off long-term inflationary pressures."

1588. Jim Gallagher (Staff) in ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, Apr. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'We've probably seen the worst of it,' agrees John Blixen, who heads the investment unit of Mercantile Bank. The rebound in technology stocks late last week signals that the brunt of the downturn is ending, he said. The dow gained 49 points on Friday."

1589. Jane Seaberry (Stall) in DALLAS MORNING NEWS, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"More turmoil is expected as investors fear company profits will be hurt by higher rates, economists said. 'Right now it's hard to see anything pulling the market back up,' said Robert Dederick, a consulting economist for Northern Trust Bank. 'But that doesn't mean that it's going to fall into a bottomless pit."'

1590. Guy Halverson (Staff) in CHR. SCI. MON., Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'Normal mini-correction,' says John Ryding. Still bullish'? 'Absolutely,' says John Ryding, senior economist at Bear Steams & Co. 'There is just no reason' to be a long-term pessimist about either the United States economy or the US stock market, he says. 'Bull markets come to an end when a significant policy error is made."'

1591. Dave Skidmore (Staff Assoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"American workers are enjoying the strongest job market in nearly a decade. the Labor Department said Friday, with unemployment dipping to 5.2 percent in March and wages on the rise. They should savor it while they can."

1592. Dave Skidmore (Staff Assoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apr. 5, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/6/97}.
"Employers reported a moderate 175,000 gain in jobs in March. That came after two large increases--293,000 in February and 259,000 in January."

1593. Dave Skidmore (Staff Assoc. Press) in MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL, Apr. 5.97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The March decline in joblessness was the second consecutive monthly drop. The seasonally adjusted rate was 5.3 percent in February and 5.4 percent in January. It previously reached 5.2 percent August-October last year. It last touched 5 percent in 1989. Many economists think it could drop below that by summer, a level not seen since 1974."

1594. Jan Hopkins (Staff) in CNN MONEYLINE, Mar. 14, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/4/97).
"Analysts had worried that any big pullback might set off panic in the legions of new investors---sending the market spiraling down. But so far, the small investor seems to be sticking with stocks. Vanguard, the nation's
second-largest mutual fund family, reports investors put just about as much money into stocks last week as in early March.  'Investor panic is about as far away as Hale Bopp,' said Vanguard spokesman Brian Mattes."

1595. Jeffrey Laderman (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97),
"U.S. investors shouldn't have to depend on exotic markets to make money this year.  Even with a less-than-notable first quarter, many still forecast good returns for 1997.  'I'm not running for cover,' says Eric Kobren, a fund analyst who just launched the Kobren Insight Funds, a series of three funds-of-funds. 'It's just that people got used to earning 20% or 30% annual returns with no risk, and that's not going to happen this year.' Adds Robert J. Markman of Markman MultiFunds: 'We'll alternate months of euphoria and months of despair, and a year from now, the market will be up between 6% and 12%.'"


138

1596. Edward Wyatt (Staff) in NY TIMES, Apr. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"'The global economic situation-couldn't be brighter for long-term holders of financial assets,' said John Cleland, chief investment strategist at the Security Benefit Group, a Topeka, KS., investment company that oversees $2 billion in fund assets. Because so many mutual fund shareholders are investing through retirement plans. they are focused on long-term goals, and therefore 'cash flows are not going to dry up, and they are not going to reverse,' Mr. Cleland said."

1597. Jim Gallagher (Staff) in ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH. Apr. 6. 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Money manager Gerry Sparrow is confident enough to make some predictions: A Dow at 7700 by year end, heading for 8800 next year. It closed Friday at 6526.07 'We're still bullish,' says Sparrow. who manages $30 million at Sparrow Capital Management. 'The U.S. economy is strong and inflation is low. We expect long-term interest rates to be lower next year. "'

1598. Edward Wyatt (Staff) in NY T1MES, Apr. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/6/97).
"Recently, investors have set their expectations extraordinarily high. In a nationwide survey of 750 mutual fund investors conducted for Montgomery Asset Management. a San Francisco mutual fund company. respondents said they expected an average return of 16 percent this year on their mutual fund investments. Over the next 10 years. they forecast an average annual return of 22 percent."

1599. Walter Mead (Presidential Fellow. World Policy lnst.) in LA TIMES. Apt. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"International economic growth could improve this forecast for stocks. but with 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds now yielding more than 7% interest. we could be entering an era in which bonds are a better long-term bet than stocks."

1600. Guy Halverson (Staff) in CHR. SCI. MON., Apt. 7. 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/6/97).
"Oil stocks still good return and attractive. Still, some sectors continue to be inviting. They include oil-service and drilling companies. Baby Bell telecommunication companies. and some high-tech firms. Acuff also likes large-company, high quality firms. And he says small investors will probably hang onto their equity funds, he says. That's a plus for the market."

1601. BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7. 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"A key topic at the policy meeting was surely the surprising strength of consumers. Just minutes after the confab began, the Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence remained unusually high in March. The index dipped to 118.5 from 118.9 in February, but the February level was the highest in almost eight years. Households' assessments of both present conditions and expectations for the future edged lower, but the reading on the current economic climate held close to a 27-year high."

1602. Dean Foust (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apt. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Flush with stock-market profits and higher incomes. consumers are suddenly spending with abandon on everything from new clothes to new houses. Domestic demand for all goods and services in the first quarter is surging at a 4.5% clip, estimates St. Louis economic consultant Joel Prakken ."

1603. BUS. DATELINE, Apr. 28, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Laws passed to protect the environment can sometimes devastate large and small business alike, says Dixon, a homebuilder in Flagstaff, for the past 11 years."

1604. BUS. DATELINE, Apr. 28, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"'It is very difficult being a small-business person today with the cost of taxes and compliance with regulations, ' he says.  'Sometimes small businesses can spend more money trying to comply with all the regulations than it actually takes to run a business.'"

1605. Marty Latz (Staff) in PHOENIX GAZZETTE, July 25, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"But overreliance on a bureaucratic regulatory state carries great dangers. First, we don't want to choke off corporate profits. Regulation by its nature requires corporate compliance, and compliance costs money. Since our economy's strength depends upon successful corporations, too much regulation presents a problem. Just look at the disastrous economy of the former Soviet Union. That bureaucratic behemoth and its limitless roles and regulations stifled and destroyed nearly everything productive in its path."

1606.  JRNL. OF COMMERCE, Jan. 23, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Many Americans believe that economic progress is associated with environmental degradation. These groups see regulation and implicit taxes as a means to rein in growth. Slow growth is an objective of regulation rather than an intended consequence."

1607. Marty Latz (Staff) in PHOENIX GAZZETTE, July 25, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"But overreliance on a bureaucratic regulatory state carries great dangers. First, we don't want to choke off corporate profits. Regulation by its nature requires corporate compliance, and compliance costs money. Since our economy's strength depends upon successful corporations, too much regulation presents a problem. Just look at the disastrous economy of the former Soviet Union. That bureaucratic behemoth and its limitless rules and regulations stifled and destroyed nearly everything productive in its path."

1608. Marty Latz (Staff) in PHOENIX GAZZETTE, July 25, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"No one likes regulation because it's comprised of detailed rules. something people must obey. A straightjacket on our behavior. And to make matters worse, the bureaucracy has the unenviable responsibility of writing and enforcing regulations. And nobody likes nameless, faceless bureaucrats who exercise power over us. Corporations especially dislike regulation because it invariably imposes costs on them. Regulation limits corporate profits. And profits, as we all know, from the holy grail of corporate society."

1609. Frances Cairncross (Envir. Ed., The Economist) in GREEN, INC. 95, 59-60.
"Economists do not believe that regulation works well as a policy tool, for the following reasons: Regulation encourages government to do what it does worst: second-guess companies about what is the best technology to achieve a particular goal. Regulation rarely attempts to balance costs and benefits. Indeed, the costs are often disguised: if water companies have to install expensive sewage-treatment equipment and so raise their rates, customers may blame the companies, not the government, for setting higher standards. If regulations are strictly enforce, they tend to load high costs on to some polluters, low costs on to others."

1610. Frances Cairncross (Envir. Ed., The Economist) in GREEN, INC. 95, 193.
"Third, regulation may drive some companies out of an existing market, often by increasing the capital requirements. Again, an example from waste management. In the United States, tougher standards for landfills were repeatedly promised in the early 1990s and then postponed. Part of the reason was the extra costs they would inflict on cities; part, the threat they posed to small landfill operators who lobbied furiously against them. The delays infuriated the larger companies."

1611. Jesslea Mathews (Staff) in WASH. POST. Dec. 23, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Environmental regulation is one of the most frequently alleged causes of anemic productivity growth. Various studies find the burden of environmental investment accounting for 10 percent to 30 percent of productivity decline and for pollution, intensive industries, some put the figure a high as 50 percent."

1612.  REUTER'S FINANCIAL SERV., Jan. 15, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"'1 think the market will be positive in its response (to fourth quarter earnings), but I don't think there'll be any explosion to the upside,' said Joseph Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Gruntal. 'But God forbid if you come in with the wrong numbers... they'll really hit you hard,' he said." [Ellipsis in original]

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1613. Charles Oliver (Staff in INVESTOR'S BUS. DALLY, Dec. 5, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"'They'll continue to do what they've been doing. They won't put forth anything of their own that they can get criticized,' said Margaret Ann Reigle, chairman of the Fairness to Landowners Committee. ' They'll push through more regulation, and they'll work against any Republican reforms, but they won't have anything positive."'

1614. Scott Holman (Small Bus. Chamber of Commerce) in FEDERAL NEWS SER., Feb. 28, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Republican congressional leaders and presidential candidates have made regulatory reform a centerpiece their campaigns, maintaining that many of the regulations are outdated, unfair, too expensive and unwarranted. In an interview, Lader said Clinton's version of regulatory reform differs in this way: One approach tear up regulations. The other is to recognize that regulations have helped protect the quality of the environment. But there's no question the regulations have been a crushing burden to small businesses."

1615. Thomas Kelly (Dir., Off. of Regulation Mgt.) in FEDERAL NEWS SERV., May 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"And third, EPA is reaching out to small business to a far greater extent than at any other time in our history. Today we do not write regulations or make policy that affect small businesses without first talking to small business people and without carefully evaluating the economic impacts of those actions. We want to make sure that any burden we impose is justified by better protection to human health and the environment. We are making special efforts to include small businesses in new programs and initiatives from which they might benefit. I would like to talk about each of these three points in greater detail. Please keep in mind that most of EPA's programs are delegated to States. In fact, the vast majority of environmental programs are operated by state governments.'

1616. JAPAN ECONOMIC NEWSWIRE, Dec. 10, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/4/97).
"The nation's top economic planner gave the appraisal at a news conference following a cabinet meeting which adopted the agency's monthly economic assessment report for December. Aso said that once the government starts putting into practice the current plan to remove or ease regulations on the economy, the public mood about the economic outlook would brighten. Asked about the course the economy is likely to follow in fiscal 1997, he suggested the public perception of the government plan to deregulate the economy appears to have changed for the better, compared with a month ago."

1617.  DAYTON DAILY NEWS, Jan. 12, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"The analyst made the forecasts as part of his annual 'Surprises of 1997,' a list of 14 events that he considers to have a better than 50 percent chance of taking place. Wien said investors give his picks a one-in-three chance of occurring. Wien expects the stock market's about-face this year to hinge on perceptions about the economy. The economy could expand at a 3 percent rate in 1997. Wien said, initially driving investor optimism for expanding corporate profits."

1618. Hardey Kaur (Staff) et al. in BUS. TIMES. Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The over-reaction of the stock market to the Bank Negara guidelines is mainly due to the 'fear of the unknown'. There is no way the central bank will allow the banking institutions to 'pull out the lines and stop credit to the property sector and for buying shares or allow the market to crash'."

1619. Renato Ruggiero (Staff) in INT'L. ECONOMY, Dec., 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97), 58.
"There was a time when international business persons tended to see trade and investment as alternative means of securing access to foreign markets. Today, firms often need to be able both to invest and to trade in order to conduct business, which is a vital feature of globalized economic activity, and its success depends upon open, predictable trade and investment regimens."

1620.  INVESTOR'S BUS. DAILY, Mar. 3, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"The economy--and Wall Street--have little to worry about except for people in Washington who feel the need to mess with them. This goes for the White House, Congress and, as Alan Greenspan has demonstrated once again, the Fed. One reason the economy, and therefore the stock market, has done so well is that events have, for the most part, held the government meddling in check."

1621. Dale C. Copeland (Asst. Prof., Foreign Affairs, UVA) in INT'L. SECURITY, Spring 96, 7.
"Levels of interdependence and expectations of future trade, considered simultaneously lead to new predictions. Interdependence can foster peace, as liberals argue, but this will only be so when states expect that trade levels will be high into the foreseeable future. If highly ' interdependent states expect that trade will be severely restricted--that is, if their expectations for future trade are low--realists are likely to be right: the most highly dependent states will be the ones most likely to initiate war, for fear of losing the economic wealth that supports their long-term security."

1622. Dale C. Copeland (Asst. Prof., Foreign Affairs, UVA) in INT'L. SECURITY, Spring 96, 25.
"When dependence is high, peace will be promoted only when the state has positive expectations of future trade. Here, the liberal logic applies, whereby the positive benefits of trade give the dependent state the incentive not to disrupt a profitable peace. If, however, expectations of future trade fall, then realist concerns about the downside of interdependence--the costs of being cut off--enter in, dramatically increasing the likelihood that the dependent state will initiate war."

1623. THE TIMES, Sept. 20. 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"One of the reasons why the right occupies so much of the high ground is that its threes have been better able to come to terms with economic 'globalization': that is, the interlocking of national economies through highly mobile flows of financial capital, direct investment and trade. Governments of even the world's most powerful states have become highly circumscribed and their freedom of maneuver in economic policy is largely confined to sending signals and responding to the markets, and creating an atmosphere of business confidence."

1624.  Thomas PalIey (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96, 44. 
"Predictions of when the next recession will occur aside, however, there are now solid grounds for believing that the economy is again vulnerable to the sort of seismic shock that generated the Great Depression."

1625.  Thomas PalIey (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96. 50. 
"This period of maintaining demand through federal deficit spending is ending, and the household sector and the government sector may thus be forced into curing spending at the same time. The pressure to cut government spending is largely political."

1626.  Thomas Palley (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTIILY, July, 96, 50. 
"With or without a balanced-budget amendment, we appear to be following a political trajectory (sanctioned by Republicans and Democrats alike) intended to diminish greatly the economic role of government. This diminution threatens the economic stabilizers of the Golden Age, which ensure that the government automatically supports demand when the economy begins to trail off into recession."

1627.  Thomas Palley (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96. 50. 
"Under block grants the federal government would no longer automatically pump more welfare spending into the economy during recessions, which is when need goes up and demand must be stabilized."

1628. James Glassman (Staff, Wash. Post) in INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"It took just two brutal days of trading last week for the Dow Jones industrial average to drop 297 points. Complacent investors, who might have forgotten 1987 and probably never went through 1973-74, got a rude awakening. No doubt you were scared. And you will probably be scared again in the weeks ahead. This is a volatile, high-priced market. It is for cool, patient investors only. The skittish and the greedy need not apply."

1629.  INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, May 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"With this mindset, it is probably unavoidable that bond traders act as a herd, often overreacting and discovering in hindsight that they have driven rates too low or too high-extremes that may have an almost immediate effect. Today's high-tech, super-efficient financial markets have 'the capability of transmitting mistakes at a far faster pace throughout the financial system in ways that were unknown a generation ago,' Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, said earlier this month."

140

1630. INDEPENDENT, Sept. 29, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"It sounds orderly, but it isn't. Markets, as the demise of the Exchange Rate Mechanism showed in 1992, are like big animal herds: small movements can turn into stampedes with astonishing suddenness. If the idea of a crash gets about, everyone with shares will want to sell at once, unless they are very brave or very foolish. The yield ratio is a popular 'warning light' for investors, but it is not the only one."

1631. Jerry Jasinowski (Nat'l. Assn. Manufacturers) in INT'L. ECONOMY, Aug., 95, 55.
"Path Number 6: Go Global In today's world, a simple, basic imperative has arisen, often for survival and certainly for growth: you have to be a world player with your eyes constantly focused on markets abroad. Fortunately, most companies can become a world player. Indeed, many small companies have surprised themselves. finding that 40, 50, or even 80 percent of their revenues can come from overseas sales within just a few years of going global."{ Emphasis in original }

1632. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95,254.
"Our research shows that environmental scarcity causes violent conflict. This conflict tends to be persistent, diffuse, and sub-national. Its frequency will probably jump sharply in the next decades as scarcities rapidly worsen in many parts of the world. Of immediate concern are scarcities of cropland, water. forests, and fish, whereas atmospheric changes such as global warming will probably not have a major effect for several decades, and then mainly by interacting with already existing scarcities."

1633. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95,245-6.
"In brief, our research showed that environmental scarcities are already conflicting to violent conflicts in many parts of the developing world. These conflicts are probably the early signs of an upsurge of violence in the coming decades that will be induced or aggravated by scarcity. The violence will usually be subnational, persistent. and diffuse. Poor societies will be particularly affected since they are less able to buffer themselves from environmental scarcities and the social crises they cause. These societies are, in fact, already suffering acute hardship from shortages of water, forests, and especially fertile land."

1634. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park)et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 253-254.
"Environmental scarcity has insidious and cumulative social impacts, such as population movement, economic decline, and the weakening of states. These can contribute to diffuse and persistent sub-national violence. The rate and extent of such conflicts will increase as scarcities worsen."

1635. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park)et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95,259.
"In short, there is a growing connection between environment and conflict. Environmental deficiencies engender conditions which render conflict all the more likely. These deficiencies can serve to determine the source of conflict, they can act as multipliers that aggravate core causes of conflict and they can help to shape the nature of conflict. Moreover not only can they contribute to conflict, they can stimulate the growing use of force to repress disaffection among those who suffer the consequences of environmental decline .... "[Ellipsis in original]

1636. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 257-8.
"... Security concerns can no longer be confined to traditional ideas of soldiers and tanks, bombs and missiles. Increasingly they include the environmental resources that underpin our material welfare. These resources include soil, water, forests, and climate, all prime components of a nation's environmental foundations. If these foundations are depleted, the nation's economy will currently decline, its social fabric will deteriorate, and its political structure will become destabilized. The outcome is all too likely to be conflict, whether in the form of disorder and insurrection within a nation or tensions and hostilities with other nations."[Ellipsis in original]

1637. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 257.
"We can discern other linkages between environment and conflict with respect to deforestation. In the Ganges River system .... monsoonal flooding has become so widespread that it regularly imposes damages to crops, livestock, and property worth $1 billion a year among downstream communities of India and Bangladesh, even though the main deforestation occurs in another country altogether, Nepal. The result is deteriorating relations among the three governments .... "[Ellipses in original]

1638. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 256-7.
"Environmental problems can figure as causes of conflict. If we continue on our road, to environmental ruin worldwide, they will likely become predominant causes of conflict in the decades ahead .... Environment has become a fundamental factor in security issues in many regions already, and in the future will increasingly lie at the heart of security concerns of nations around the world." [Ellipsis in original]

1639. Richard Matthew (Asst. Prof., Envir. Politics & lnt'l. Relations, Georgetown U.), ISSUES IN SCI. & TECHNOLOGY, Fall, 96, 40.
"Especially in the Third World, aggressive environmental initiatives tend to be perceived as attempts to fix the status quo by burdening the development process with constraints and shifting the costs of the North's 'mistakes' along the South. China, lndonesia Brazil, and many other states are wary of proposals that seek to modify the strategies through which they are pursuing economic growth. And although the United States is the only superpower, it is no longer able to control the global agenda as it did when World War II. It now has to persuade other countries that environmental policies are in their interest."

1640. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 82.
"Environmental systems are rarely constrained by international boundaries and environmental processes cross them unhindered .... Good laws in one place can be nullified by bad ones elsewhere, especially, though not necessarily, in neighboring states. This may discourage states from enacting environmental legislation--a common reaction to the free-rider problem ('if everybody else is exceeding the speed limit then so will I')." [Ellipsis in original]

1641. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof, U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 271.
"Solutions require collective action, and with collective action comes the possibility of the 'free rider'.... It is difficult to judge this scenario, because we lack examples of this phenomenon on a large scale. 'Free-rider' problems may generate severe conflict, but it is doubtful that states would find military instruments useful for coercion and compliance "[Ellipses in original]

1642. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 142.
"With regard to dilemmas of collective action, the attainment of the benefit is necessarily dependent on the action of others. Although cooperation may yield the most desirable result for society, each state is also subjected to the temptation to cheat and get a free ride--that is, not pay the cost. but perhaps receive the benefit nevertheless--and therefore realize a higher net gain. Such pressure will be even greater if there is a feeling that others will cheat, because, for a variety of reasons, states would not want to shoulder an inappropriate share of the burden."

1643. Ved Nanda (Fmr. Prof., Law, U. Denver Col. of Law), INT'L. ENVIR. LAW & POLICY, 95, 16.
"The difficulty arises when states do not act as long as their cost-benefit analyses show a negative return on the act of preserving the environment. This is known as the 'free rider' problem. A state can get a free ride from the efforts of other states that are taking measures to preserve the environment. The phrase 'exploitation of the great by the small' has been used to describe the situation in which a developing country freely rides off of the actions of industrialized counties."

1644. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 259.
"These problems require a response different in yet another sense This response must emphasize cooperation rather than confrontation within the international arena. No nation can meet the challenges of global change on its own. Nor can any nation protect itself from the actions--or inaction---of others."

1645. Andrew Blowers (Prof., Open U.-U. K.) et al., ENVIR. POLICY IN AN INT'L. CONTEXT: PERSPECTIVES ON ENVIR. PROBLEMS (Book Two), 96, 138.
"Whenever a problem with respect to a common property resource exceeds the boundaries of one nation, international co-operation is imperative. And, indeed. this maxim applies to the problem of atmospheric deposition, both in Europe and elsewhere. After all, the prevailing winds carry the pollutants cross national borders from the UK across the North Sea into Scandinavia, from The Netherlands into Denmark and Germany, from Germany into Finland, and so on."

141

1646. Aaron Sachs (World Watch lnst.), STATE OF THE WORLD, 96, 143.
"Despite the significance of communities, some human rights and environmental justice issues inherently go far beyond a local scope. Pollution crosses borders, and so do environmental refugees, as well as certain critical resources like rivers. Many environmental resources are in fact shared globally: oceans, forests, genetic diversity, climate, the ozone layer."

1647. Ved Nanda (Fmr. Prof., Law, U. Denver Col. of Law), INT'L. ENVIR. LAW & POLICY, 95, 7.
"Awareness of both short-term and environmental concerns has heightened in the recent past. This is primarily due to a growing realization of the fragility of the global environment, and of the enormity of environmental damage that occurs both within and beyond national boundaries. In addition, significant advances in science and technology have made it possible to study and evaluate effectively the ecosystems of our planet."

1648. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 136.
"The environmental damage that we inflict can no longer be confined to certain regions. Instead, the actions of every single state will affect the global environment, and thus will also affect the habitat of every other state.  .. A proper response to these problems will require worldwide cooperation." [Ellipsis in original]

1649. Ved Nanda (Fmr. Prof., Law, U. Denver Col. of Law), INT'L. ENVIR. LAW & POLICY, 95, 3.
"Based upon recent trends, it is fair to conclude that multilateral treaties have become the primary means for developing new rules of environmental law concerned with exhaustible resources. Treaties now address the problems of atmospheric and marine pollution. as well as the use of Antarctica, outer space, and ecosystems such as large forest tracts and integrated ecosystems."

1650. Ved Nanda (Fmr. Prof., Law, U. Denver Col. of Law), INT'L. ENVIR. LAW & POLICY, 95, I I.
"Considering the success over the last decade in the development of treaties that protect specific species and that address discrete forms of pollution, it is becoming evident that treaties protecting ecosystems and habitats, rather than comprehensive frameworks, constitute the means that international law should use to protect the global commons. Such treaties do not generally face fierce opposition from critics using the sovereignty argument."

1651. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al.. GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 78.
"Despite these obstacles, there have been examples of effective international cooperation among environmentalists, as in the case of the internally coordinated campaign to change the environmental practices of the World Bank during the late 1980s. In the long run, the catalytic role of both Stockholm and Rio in fostering greater international cooperation among environmental groups may be a more important legacy of those conferences than any of the solemn promises made by governments."

1652. AIberty Conca (Asst. Prof., U. MD-Col. Park) et al., GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95, 3.
"Today, the dramas of environmental politics are ever more frequently being played out on a global stage. It is generally agreed that human transformation of the environment is a global problem. In some cases, this is because the system under stress is globally interconnected in a direct physical sense, as in the case of the Earth's climate, the oceans. or the atmosphere's protective ozone layer. In other cases, local consequences add up to global significance, as in the depletion of the world's fisheries or the reduction of the planet's biological diversity."

1653. Andrew Blowers (Prof., Open U.-U. K.) et al., ENVIR. POLICY IN AN INT'L. CONTEXT: PERSPECTIVES ON ENVIR. PROBLEMS (Book Two), 96, 187.
"Before the Convention was signed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio in June 1992, various scientific trends and political mechanisms could be discerned interacting in an evolutionary process which is still far from being concluded today. Scientific progress is gradually improving our understanding of the impact of the atmospheric changes. At the same time, international consultation mechanisms have come into being which have facilitated the development of a global climate policy."

1654. Jarrod Wiener (Grad. School, Int'l. Relations, U. Kent & Canterbury), MAKING THE RULES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND OF THE GATT, 95, 4.
"The hegemonic state bears a disproportionate cost of providing stability, which is a public good on which other states free-ride, or enjoy without paying their share of the costs of maintenance. Thus at the same time that the hegemon becomes unable to support the system, it becomes unwilling to tolerate others' free rides. Others perceive that they no longer accrue sufficient benefits from the system and seek to overthrow it and establish one that is more a reflection of their interests. For Gilpin, these dynamics had led historically to hegemonic wars."

1655. Ved Nanda (Fmr. Prof., Law, U. Denver Col. of Law), INT'L. ENVIR. LAW & POLICY, 95, 23.
"An evolving body of customary international law on the environment also exists. Two principles have gained widespread acceptance. First, there is a 'duty to prevent, reduce, and control pollution and environmental harm,' often expressed as the principle of sic utere. Second, an obligation is evolving to help mitigate environmental damage. More recent international agreements, such as Principle 21 of the Stockholm Declaration, the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the Rio Declaration, contain provisions aimed at protecting the global commons. Such inclusion in major agreements helps demonstrate that these principles are gaining acceptance as international law." [Emphasis in original]

1656. Andrew Blowers (Prof., Open U.-U. K.) et al.. ENVIR. POLICY IN AN INT'L. CONTEXT: PERSPECTIVES ON ENVIR. PROBLEMS (Book One), 95.129.
"In response partly to widely perceived threats to the global environment and party to the institutional deadlines imposed by the UNCED process, numerous innovative concepts in standard setting have been introduced during the past few years. Some of these new devices have been referred to above. They include the use of framework conventions in combination with subsequent protocols containing more detailed standards: the use of simplified amendment procedures to avoid the need for cumbersome ratification procedures: and the use of incentives by way of financial and technological assistance to encourage more states to join a particular agreement."

1657. Alberty Conca (Asst. Prof:, U. MD-Col. Park) et al.. GREEN PLANET BLUES, 95. 134.
"In the realm of international relations, there will always be uncertainties--political. economic, scientific, psychological. The protocol's greatest significance may be its demonstration that the international community is capable of undertaking complicated cooperative actions in the real world of ambiguity and imperfect knowledge. The Montreal Protocol can be a hopeful paradigm of an evolving global diplomacy. one wherein sovereign nations find ways to accept common responsibility for stewardship of the planet and for the security of generations to come."

1658. ENVIR. POLICY & LAW, June, 96, 173.
"Another part of UNEP's role in implementation consists of efforts to transform non-binding regimes into binding ones. This can be illustrated by the 1987 Cairo Guidelines and Principles for the Environmentally Sound Management of Hazardous Wastes, which served as a basis for preparing the Basel Convention."

1659. ENVIR. POLICY & LAW. June. 96, 173.
"UNEP is also deeply involved in implementation assistance and capacity building and in the promotion of technology transfer. In order to coordinate the activities of convention secretariats. UNEP convened during 1994-1995 a series of meetings. An agreement was reached that UNEP programs would be coordinated with those of convention secretariats with a view of avoiding duplication and achieving synergy."

1660. ENVIR. POLICY & LAW, June. 96, 173.
"For this reason, the Unimproved State reporting procedures. Now an integrated report is submitted to the UN and transmitted to the appropriate supervisory organs which hold regular meetings. The effectiveness of the reporting system is thus enhanced and the burden on both States and the supervisory organs lessened."

142

1661. ENVIR. POLICY & LAW, June, 96, 174.
"They recommend that States should accelerate the ratification and the implementation of international environmental conventions. In this regard, they should inform their public and in particular NGOs of the signature of all new conventions, making the text of the instruments available to them. The public and NGOs must have access to adequate judiciary and administrative remedies for the case of non-application of environmental treaties. Each government, assisted by NGOs, should establish inventories and supervisory mechanisms concerning the state of its environment and prepare periodically reports on the measures of protection it has adopted. such documents must be available to NGOs and to competent international institutions."

1662. Gregg Taylor (Staff), NUCLEAR NEWS, Aug., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97), 172.
"Dinah Shelton (Professor. Notre Dame-University, USA) drew a general picture of the reporting systems in international human rights law. which can be a source of inspiration for the supervision or' the application of environmental obligations."

1663. Kyle Marshall (Staff), NEWS & OBSERVER, Apr. 11, 97. C9.
"'I think we're at a very significant crossroads in trade policy,' she said. 'We will be starting from a basic proposition that we are headed in the right direction in policy. and we're headed in the right direction economically for the future of our country."'

1664. BUS. WEEK. Apt. 7, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Better trade news is on tap for later in the year, however, although the rising dollar will constrain exports. stronger economies overseas will lift foreign demand for U.S. goods, especially capital equipment and consumer goods. Imports, however, will rise as long as domestic demand increases--which is why for all of 1997, foreign trade will be neutral for GDP growth."

1665. Sheryl WuDunn (Staff) in NY TIMES. Apt. 5.97 (Online. Nexis. 4/6/97 ).
"Japan's once-gaping trade surplus, after falling sharply over the last three years. has been creeping steadily back up in recent months. In 1996, for example. the surplus in the broadest measure. the current account, fell 31 percent from the previous year to $58.85 billion, the lowest level since 1990. But in January of this year there was a fiverfold rise over the January 1996 surplus to $1.24 billion. And in February, Japan's trade surplus continued rising. Further increases in the surplus could lead to renewed trade frictions between the United States and Japan."

1666. Sheryl WuDunn (Staff) in NY TIMES, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/6/97).
"Responding to American concerns. Japanese leaders said today that they would try to hold their resurgent trade surplus in check. The remarks were welcomed by Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin. who was making a one-day visit to Tokyo, in part to urge Japanese officials to take preventative economic measures."

1667. Velisarios Kattoulas (Staff) in INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Apr. 5, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Analysts and currency traders took his comments to mean that for now at least Japan's trade surplus ......'as not a major irritant for the United States, which is enjoying steady growth and shrinking unemployment."

1668. Velisarios Kattoulas (Staff) in INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE. Apr. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"While most analysts expect Japan's surplus to continue to edge higher for the rest of the year, few expect it to climb as high as it did two years ago, when Tokyo and Washington clashed over Japanese exports of cars and car parts. 'Rubin seemed to say that he could cope with a small rise in Japan's trade surplus,' said Mamoru Yamazaki, a senior economist at Paribas Capital Markets in Tokyo. 'And since the U.S. economy is strong and a large rise in Japan's trade surplus is unlikely, it appears there isn't going to be much trade friction between Washington and Tokyo this year."'

1669. Velisarios Kattoulas (Staff/in INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Apt. 5, 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/6/97).
"The likelihood of a trade spat between Tokyo and Washington this year appears to diminish Friday when Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin indicated that the ('Clinton administration could live with a small rise in Japan's trade surplus with the United States."

1670. CHR. SCI. MON., Apr. 30, 96, 2.
"The US trade deficit is already showing some improvement. It narrowed in February to.$8.2 billion, the Commerce Department reported last week, a 17 percent decline from January's figure, once adjusted for seasonal variations. Experts predict the gap will continue to shrink for the balance of the year, an important economic trend that President Clinton may point to as he campaigns for reelection."

1671. Erik Golden {Frmr. St. Staff Economist on the President's Council of Eco. Advisors) in ORDER & DISORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95, 294.
"The evolution & global industrial networks, in which firms in related industries develop long-term R&D as well as trade relationships, means that the three major industrial regions will be tied more and more closely together, enhancing convergence. That does not mean that regional policies will become less effective in the future. On the contrary, regional factors that determine the concentration of niches of particular industries may well become more, not less. important. The combination of convergence and global networks suggests new patterns of specialization that will alter the nature of regional cooperation and competition."

1672.  Joel Molly (Prof., Eco., Northwestern) in REASON, July, 96, 52. 
"Protectionism is a bit like bloodletting. For centuries many intelligent and learned people passionately believed bloodletting was a panacea, and they fought for it on the political and intellectual battlefields. Yet they were hopelessly wrong. Unfortunately, whereas the practice of bloodletting has joined the fiat earth, alchemy, and phlogiston physics in the dustbin of history of science, protectionism somehow manages to raise its ugly head time and again in America. While the leaders of both major political parties have by and large embraced free trade. some fringe candidates have resurrected protectionism and are riding a wave of bigotry and parochialism, masquerading as 'America First."'

1673. Ian Rowlands (Ph.D. Candidate, London Sch. of Eco. & Pol. Sci.), THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE, 95, 136.
"A 1990 OECD report that cites a study comparing the effects of four different policies to reduce emissions by 50 per cent over 1990-2030 concludes that both Japan and the EC member-states would be better off if national consumption taxes were the policy instruments chosen. By contrast. the report finds that North America would be the only region to be worse off in every scenario." [Emphasis in original]

1674. Ellen Hale (Staff in GANNET NEWS SERVICE, Mar. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), 511.
There is no sacred schedule. said John Shlaes, director of the Global Climate Coalition, a group representing more than 230,000 companies including the petroleum, chemical, and power generating industries. 'Delegates are being pushed to act now...without adequate information.' Last week, his organization released a study predicting a loss &billions of dollars a year--as much as 4.3 percent of gross domestic product of industrialized nations. Another recent study concluded reducing carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels would cost America $350 billion and 1.1 million jobs a year."

1675. Adam Rose (Prof., Mineral Eco., PA St. U.) in THE ENERGY JRNL. #3, 95, 85.
"We acknowledge the existence of reasonable estimates of net benefits of reducing CO2 emissions in the tens of billions of dollars per year for the U.S. alone. We should, however, point out that a 3% decline in GDP in the Year 2000 translates into nearly $200 billion per year of opportunity COSTS."

1676. Jonathan Marshall (Economics Ed.) in SAN FRANCISCO CHRON., Sept. 18, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/2/97), D I.
"Also, developing nations such as China and India will not commit to the targets, Dingell said, which will give them 'incredible competitive advantages' over the U .S.'

1677. Francois Leveque (Dir., Ctr. Industrial Eco., Ecole des Mines de Paris) et al. in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 95, 301.
"Secondly, environmental regulators are confronted with competitive issues. They are compelled not to induce trade distortions and negative competitive effects on industry. To prevent environmental issues from restricting trade liberalization, the designing of new national policies cannot be independent of what other countries are doing."

143

1678. Harmen Verbruggen (Prof. Eco., Vrije U., Amsterdam) et al. in PRINCIPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, 95, 235-6.
"In the trade and environment debate, it is important to realize that the implementation & environmental policy usually increases the cost of production of economic goods. This implementation takes place through the application of environmental policy instruments, which aim at influencing private decision-making so as to meet environmental policy objectives."

1679. David Hecht (ENDA Press Serv., DaKar), AFRICA NEWS, Dec. 17, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/1/97), 1.
"The Convention recognizes that industries cannot pay the massive cost of reducing their emissions on their own. Overly strict regulations inhibit industrial growth, as would excessive taxes on polluters and the consensus is that a healthy environment and economic prosperity must go hand in hand."

1680. Frances Cairncross (Envir. Ed., The Economist) in GREEN, INC. 95, 196.
"The Porter hypothesis assumes that companies have large unexplored opportunities to save money and improve products; that government regulations are likely to force companies to make savings and product developments that they would not otherwise have done, and that these innovations will pay better than the investments they would have made of their own accord. The first of these assumptions is greatly encouraged by slogans of the 'pollution prevention pays' sort. The trouble is, it does not always pay---or it may pay simply because it avoids an even higher cost. such as a fine or a bill for cleaning up toxic waste. that would otherwise be imposed not by the commercial market but by regulators of the courts."

1681. Frances Cairncross (Envir. Ed., The Economist) in GREEN. INC. 95, 20.
"Spending on environmental protection usually has to compete against many other investments (or, as in the case of donations to green lobbying groups or trips to national parks, with other sorts of consumption). If companies are forced to spend heavily on--say---cleaning up toxic waste. they are less likely to invest in developing new products; if governments devote their road-building budget to digging tunnels. in order to avoid desecrating beauty spots, there may be less cash for bypasses around ancient city centers of for public transportation."

1682. Mike Leidy (Int'l. Monetary Fund)et al. in THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ENVIR. PROTECTION, 96, 44-5.
"Industries facing the highest pollution abatement costs are among those most frequently seeking and receiving protection in industrialized countries. Metals, including basic metal products, and chemical products account for ten of the top 19 (of 122) U .S. industries ranked by pollution-abatement costs. Industries in these categories accounted for 68 percent of all antidumping (AD) investigations (260 of 381 cases) and 78 percent of all definitive AD duties (119 of 153 actions) taken in the United States from July 1988 though June 1989."

1683. Frances Cairncross (Envir. Ed., The Economist) in GREEN, INC. 95, 45.
"But the main reason the European Commission has demanded a say in environmental issues is that green policies influence competitiveness. Countries that impose tough standards on their producers want to ensure that neighboring countries do the same: otherwise. their producers will claim to be at a competitive disadvantage. And the environmental standards countries set for products can easily be used as an excuse to keep out imports."

1684. Pietro S. Nivola (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Gov't. Studies) in BROOKINGS REV., Jan., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Each year the U .S. government publishes a revealing report about the rest of the world's policies, practices, and 'acts' that are said to impair American commerce and prosperity. No less interesting would be to list the numerous U.S. rules and acts that create similar difficulties. To put matters in perspective, the protected annual costs (in excess of benefits) of the 1990 Clean Air Act alone exceed the estimated value of U.S. exports blocked by all of Japan's known import restrictions. The burdensome regulations of foreign countries deserve attention. But so do the burdens we, too, impose on ourselves and sometimes on others."

1685. Pietro S. Nivola (St. Fellow, Brookings Gov't. Studies) in BROOKINGS REV., Jan., 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Amid this global economic integration, peculiarities in regulatory environments can magnify national variations in the fortunes of key industries or even in the margins of national living standards. Just as the strategic industrial policies of trading partners might contribute to their comparative commercial advantages and disadvantages), so eccentricities in native legal cultures or regulatory styles may no longer be of little consequence in the global marketplace. In short, how we regulate ourselves now makes a bigger difference, for us and for the rest of the international community."

1686. Erik Golden (Frmr. St. Staff Economist on the President's Council of Eco. Advisors) in ORDER & DISORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95. 303.
"The strategic trade and technology arguments become more persuasive when they are combined, because it is conceivable that a strategy for capturing critical technologies through strategic trade policies could have large dynamic effects. Some argue that there are strategic industries with large, long-term impacts on other sectors; that capturing them requires domestic production of components as well as products (semiconductors as well as computers); that technological development is path-dependent so you cannot just jump in at the next technological level; and that while the short-run gains from strategic trade policies are small, their long-term impact by capturing strategic technologies may be very large. Those arguments provide a foundation for the use of government policy to attract and defend regional network nodes containing high-value activities with the potential for influencing long-term technological patterns."

1687. Ernest Prig (Sch. Schair of Int'l. Bus., CSIS) in ORDER & DISORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95. 334.
"If the United States is to exercise firm leadership in the trade policy field in the 1990s, a more clear and complete trade strategy based on the convergence of these three tracks needs to be formulated, in which actions in each of the tracks reinforces the others in working toward well-defined longer-term goals. Such a strategy has been evolving through U.S. trade policy implementation over the last several years, but some gaps remain."

1688. Pietro S. Nivola (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Gov't. Studies) in BROOKINGS REV., Jan.. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"It is also natural to react to one's regulator>' handicaps by trying to push them on everyone else, if not by demanding trade protection, then by adjusting the playing field. Efforts to haul additional legal freight into other societies have already complicated international negotiations. Much as the question of 'social dumping' came to dominate deliberations about regulatory harmonization in Europe, the North American free trade treaty teetered for a time over the question of environmental and labor standards for Mexico."

1689. Velisarios Kattoulas (Staff) in INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Apt. 5, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Although Mr. Rubin warned Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto not to rely on exports to stabilize Japan's faltering economic recovery, he gave no indication that the Japanese trade surplus had reached levels unacceptable to the United States. Mr. Rubin also rejected suggestions that boosting the value of the yen was the best way to cut Japan's trade surplus.  It was critical that Japan's current account surplus not rise again to a level that is detrimental to global growth,' he said after meeting Mr. Hashimoto. Otherwise, it could cause trade friction and fuel protectionist sentiments among Japan's trading partners, Mr. Rubin said."

1690. Chris Wold (Instructor. Law, Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW, Fall. 96, 845.
"Instead, GATT panel have rejected arguments that environmental measures are justified under specific Article XX exceptions, because the measures were not 'necessary to protect human, animal, or plant life or health' under Article XX(b) or 'primarily aimed at' the conservation of a natural resource under Article XX(g)."

144

1691. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law, Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW, Fall, 96, 843.
"International trade rules, as declared in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and incorporated into the new World Trade Organization (WTO), the principal international trade agreement and institution. often conflict with environmental goals and laws. Nations, however, continue to treat trade and environment separately, rather than make them mutually reinforcing. This dichotomy could pose significant problems for resolving global environmental problems, because many multilateral environmental agreements rely on trade restrictions to achieve their goals."

1692.	Kelly Hunt (SMU) in INT'L. LAWYER, Spring, 96, 163-4.
"The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) started in
1948 and now includes 123 countries. GATT principles and disciplines attempt to promote increased market access and expansion of trade. Many environmental treaties try to restrict or prevent trade of environmentally damaging products. While GAY[' rules limit restrictions on trade, many environmentally damaging products. While GATT rules limit restrictions on trade, many environmental treaties require these restrictions. and conflicts inevitably arise."

1693. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law. Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW.
Fall, 96.
"The tension between GATT and WTO code rules and environmental measures is real. GATT and WTO panels have found several domestic environmental measures inconsistent with GATT, including measures to protect dolphins, to assess penalties against manufacturers of automobiles that do not meet designated fuel efficiency standards. and to reduce emissions from gasoline."

1694. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law. Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW. Fall, 96, 843.
"Although no country has challenged a trade measure of a multilateral environmental agreement as inconsistent with GATT. countries have challenged domestic environmental laws. and GATT and WTO dispute resolution panels have concluded that several national environmental laws are inconsistent with GATT rules."

1695. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law. Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW. Fall. 96.919-20.
"If GAF and WTO code rules apply to provisions of multilateral environmental agreements, many of those provisions are likely to be found inconsistent with GAF. Often, the lack of conformity merely reflects the vastly different purposes of the agreements. While GA'FF and WTO codes seek to remove barriers to trade, environmental agreements sometimes use trade barriers as enforcement tools or as a means of eliminating specific environmental problems."

1696. Kelly Hunt (SMU) in INT'L. I.AWYER, Spring, 96, 183. 
"Environmentalists also are disappointed by the Uruguay Round agreement because they believe that the rules against trade protection are skewed against environmental protection."

1697.  Kelly Hunt (SMU) in INT'L. LAWYER, Spring, 96. 182-3. 
"According to Jeffrey McNeely of the World Conservation Union,. the Uruguay Round agreement undermines international environmental agreements through its prohibition of trade measures that enable countries that play by the rules of international agreements to penalize those that do not. Similarly, the WWF warns that new international trade rules under WTO may conflict with existing environmental laws, citing the Montreal Protocol. the Basel Convention, and CITES as agreements that might be at risk."

1698. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law, Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW, Fall. 96, 869.
"Despite this uncertainty, the parties clearly envisioned that economic incentives. such as carbon and energy taxes, would be permissible means for meeting the Climate Change Convention's objectives. The Biodiversity Convention seeks to conserve and sustainably use biological diversity and to share equitably the benefits from the use of genetic resources. Although the Biodiversity Convention's habitat conservation provisions lack specificity, its rules relating to technology transfer and intellectual property rights are more specific. These provisions are intended to provide the economic incentive for protecting habitat and to ensure the equitable distribution of the benefits of biotechnology. These provisions, as well as many other provisions of the agreements briefly summarized herein, might conflict with the provisions of GATT and the new WTO codes."

1699. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law, Northwestern) in EN~VIR. LAW, Fall, 96, 906.
"The Climate Change Convention also is very interesting because it permits, without specifically mandating the use of economic incentives rather than trade restrictions to resolve global warming. The choice of economic incentives as a tool reflects the causes of global warming. Whereas a small number of corporations controlled the production of ozone depleting substances, millions of entities emit greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the combustion of fossil fuels. Thus, the Climate Change Convention parties cannot easily limit production and consumption of GHGs. Nonetheless, the use of economic incentives could encounter obstacles in the GATF and WTO code rules."

1700. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law, Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW, Fall, 96, 851.
"As a result, the panel found that U.S. taxes based on the fuel efficiency of the car ('gas guzzler' taxes) were consistent with Article 111. The taxes related directly to the product--its fuel efficiency--and applied equally to foreign and domestic automobiles. In contrast, the panel found the U.S. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) penalties to be inconsistent with Article III. These civil penalties are based on the ownership of the automobiles, a factor that the panel concluded was not related directly to the product." [Emphasis in original]

1701. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law, Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW, Fall, 96, 905.
"First, subsidies are subject to sanctions only if they target a 'specific...enterprise or industry or group of enterprises or industries."'

1702.  Kelly Hunt (SMU) in INT'L. LAWYER, Spring, 96. 183-4. 
"Developing countries have special concerns about the Uruguay Round agreement. One such concern is that environmental measures will be used as a disguise for protectionism in the new world trade order. Such protectionism in effect would allow one country to impose its environmental standards on another. Developing countries also fear that environmental concerns will be used as a means of hampering development."

1703. James Peterson (Dir., Studies, CSIS) in ORDER & DISORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95, 277-8.
"Because of the increasingly binding constraints placed on national economic policy-making by the process of global economic integration, the temptation for the major economies to engage in defensive strategies by supporting national 'strategic' industries---especially high-technology industries---could bring the major capitalisms into collision. The operative question is whether the governments concerned will succumb to the growing tendency to 'pursue relative gains at the expense of mutual gains [and] political power at the expense of economic welfare' or whether they will be able to devise a system of rules and an appropriate institutional vehicle to defuse the potential for escalating economic clashes between respective 'national champions."'

1704. Paul Papayoanou (Prof., Pol. Sci., UCSD) in INT'L. SECURITY, Spring, 96, 52.
"When economic interdependence is low among status quo powers, domestic support for balancing will not be strong for few domestic interests have a stake in other status quo powers, and a breakdown of those economic ties will carry few adjustment costs for status quo powers' economies. When a status quo power has strong economic links with states that its strategists deem threatening powers, meanwhile, there will be constraints from vested interests who do not share the strategists' perception of aggressive intentions. And since the perceived threatening power in such a situation will be a non-democratic state in which internationalist economic interests wield little influence, strategists will also be constrained by vested interests and by political leaders concerned with the prospect of substantial adjustment costs, for those actors will fear that confrontational political-military policies could threaten the economic links. Such societal pressures will lead to a weak response and will undercut leaders' capacities to make credible commitments, so an aspiring revisionist power is likely to risk aggression."

1705. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law, Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW, Fall, 96, 843.
"Proponents of free trade argue that liberalized or unregulated trade promotes the efficient use of labor and other resources, which stimulates economic growth and raises standards of living. Yet, indiscriminate trade growth can harm the environment and waste resources."

145

1706. Chris Wold (Instructor, Law, Northwestern) in ENVIR. LAW, Fall, 96, 842-3.
"Similarly, resolution of global environmental problems demand cooperative action by a large number of countries. The restoration of the ozone layer, depleted by the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone depleting substances for refrigeration and air conditioning cannot be accomplished without most countries agreeing to eliminate their consumption and production of ozone depleting substances. Global warming and international traffic in endangered species likewise cannot be resolved without the participation of many countries."

1707.  Robert Levine (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96, 52. 
"Protectionism and insularism impede innovation, depriving our children of the comfort and security that progress and economic growth bring. Free trade and international competition not only lead to a better allocation of resources; they ensure that countries do not lull themselves into the technological lethargy that is the archenemy of economic growth."

1708. John C. Nye (Assoc. Prof., Eco. and Hist., Wash. U.) in REASON, May, 96. 49.
"But our indicators of stagnation and decay may be almost irrelevant to our prospects in the years ahead. Those who advocate protection and managed markets, from Ross Perot to Patrick Buchanan, are aligning themselves not against trade, but against innovation. The dream of managed trade is functionally equivalent to the utopia of scientific planning: Neither can achieve the results their supporters hope for."

1709. Joseph Ramm (Dept. Asst. Sec., Office of Energy & Renewable Energy) in FEDERAL NEWS SERV., Mar. 14, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"The final goal of national energy R&D policy is maintaining America's leadership in science and technology, since that is the engine of productivity and job growth essential to our economic well-being in the next century. Here the Department of Energy has demonstrated unique success by winning more R&D 100 awards (given annually to the most innovative and important technologies) than any other organization since 1963."

1710.  Robert Levine (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96, 53. 
"In other words, protection not only compels consumers to pay more than they should for the products they buy; it deprives further consumers of the main benefit of competitive capitalism: continued product and process innovation. Free trade guarantees the unhindered flow of information and knowledge."

1711. BUS. WEEK, Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
'Trade promises to have been a big negative for real GDP growth in the first quarter. The January trade deficit soared to $12.7 billion from December's $10.5 billion. Exports fell 0.6%, the second consecutive decline. And imports increased 2.2%, to a record $83.5 billion. Imports, however, were boosted by an extra $1 billion of Canadian-made vehicles and parts. That reflected a catch-up in shipments after December's auto strike, and it should not be repeated in February."

1712. Dale C. Copeland (Asst. Prof., Foreign Affairs, UVA) in INT'L. SECURITY, Spring 96, 5-6.
"Liberals argue that economic interdependence lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the value of trading over the alternative of aggression: interdependent states would rather trade than invade. As long as high levels of interdependence can be maintained, liberals assert. we have reason for optimism."

1713. Penelope Hartland-Thunberg (Sr. Assoc., CSIS) in ORDER & DISORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95, 351.
"These circumstances include principally the failed development of the conditions necessary for peace, prosperity, and cooperation in the world, especially in key areas such as Europe and the Middle East. The consequences would be political instability within countries, political tensions between countries, and a slower growth of the world economy."

1714. James Peterson (Dir., Studies, CSIS) in ORDER & DISORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95, 281.
"In the emerging environment the threats to national security are real, but they are more diffuse and less likely to provide a clear focus for standing alliances or to justify the subordination of economic issues to security concerns. Instead, national strategy will have to balance economic and security interests and support approaches that develop international consensus: cooperation will be essential in providing institutions that promote international economic stability and effective crisis management."

1729. OIL & GAS JRNL., Mar. 11, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The paper said oil revenues can boost the independence and prosperity of Azerbaijan and Georgia. ' For example, through production royalties, Azerbaijan could generate over $2 billion/year in revenue from its oil fields, while Georgia could get over $500 million/year from transit fees. With these new-found oil riches, non-Russian republics in the region would depend less on Russia, economically and militarily. Independent and self-sufficient former Soviet states, bolstered by their oil revenues, would deny Russia the option of establishing a de facto sphere of influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia."

1730. OIL & GAS JRNL., Mar. 11, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Both Russian geostrategic ambitions and Iranian-style religious militancy pose long-term threats to the Muslim societies of the region. These threats can be countered by helping to create free market economies respect for the rule of law, and a civil society that respects democracy and political pluralism."

1731. John Herbst (Dep. Cord., the Newly Indep. States) in FEDERAL NEWS SERV., July 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Promoting economic and political reform perhaps the most fundamental task of the Caucasus states, indeed of all the NIS. has been replacement of the failed Soviet economic and political system. The emergence of vibrant, progressive democracies is the surest way to guarantee the independence of the region and its fruitful integration with the international community."

1732. Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. (St. Policy Analyst) in HERITAGE FNDN. REPORTS, Jan. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The U.S. role in the Great Game Much is at stake in Eurasia for the U.S. and its allies. Attempts to restore its empire will doom Russia's transition to a democracy and free-market economy. The ongoing war in Chechnya alone has cost Russia $6 billion to date (equal to Russia's IMF and World Bank loans for 1995). Moreover, it has extracted a tremendous price from Russian society. The wars which would be required to restore the Russian empire would prove much more costly not just for Russia and the region, but for peace, world stability, and security. As the former Soviet arsenals are spread throughout the NIS, these conflicts may escalate to include the use of weapons of mass destruction."

1733. John Herbst (Dep. Cord., the Newly lndep. States) in FEDERAL NEWS SERV., July 30.96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
Regional Security. The Caucasus and the NIS a key precondition to the prosperity and development of the Caucasus is the creation of a stable and secure environment in the region. The United States has pursued a multilayered approach to the problem of promoting security within the Caucasus. As mentioned above, we have encouraged the gradual development of practical regional cooperation among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. In time, and particularly as regional conflicts are addressed, this can take on a more direct security component."

1734. OIL & GAS JRNL.. Mar. 11, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The conservative Washington, D.C., think tank issued a paper by Ariel Cohen that notes the 25 billion bbl of reserves in the Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan. and Uzbekistan republics are similar to those in Kuwait and larger than those in Alaska's North Slope and the North Sea combined. 'Control over these energy resources and export routes out of the Eurasian hinterland is quickly becoming one of the central issues in postCold War politics,' the study said Today's struggle between Russia and the West may turn on who controls the oil reserves in Eurasia."

1735. Thomas Land (Foreign Correspondent) in CHR. SCI. MON., Oct. 15, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"A seismic survey just carried out on behalf of the Caspian Sea Consortium (CSC), an oil industry group, in the seabed near the Kazakhstan shore has indicated the presence of crude oil reserves estimated at 10 billion tons, as well as 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. If confirmed, these offshore reserves. overshadowed by the controversy between the Caspian neighbors, would be 10 times bigger than Kazakstan's fabulously rich Tengiz oilfield, and they would easily exceed Russia's entire proven oil reserves of 6.7 billion tons."

1736. Thomas Land (Foreign Correspondent) in CHR. SCI. MON., Oct. 15, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Landlocked Kazakhstan is about the size of Western Europe, but has a population of just 17 million people. About half are Turkish-speaking Kazaks, who live with a huge Russian ethnic minority. Their plentiful natural resources and stable politics have attracted 39 percent of the committed foreign investment flow ($117.8 billion) directed to all of the former Soviet Union. The country is believed to hold more oil resources than Iran and lraq combined and more natural gas reserves than in Norway's continental shelf."

1737. Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. (St. Policy Analyst) in HERITAGE FNDN. REPORTS, Jan. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The vast expanses of the former Soviet Union harbor oil and gas riches which will be crucial in fueling the global economy in the next century. The huge oil reserves, estimated at over 25 billion barrels, under the Caspian Sea and in the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan. and Uzbekistan are similar to those in Kuwait and larger than those in Alaska's Northern Slope and the North Sea combined."

1738. David Ivanovich (Staff) in HOUSTON CHRON., Sept. 26. 96 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97).
"No one knows how much hydrocarbon wealth lies beneath central Asia's deserts, but most of the world's major oil companies are already prospecting there. 'The deposits are huge,' said a diplomat from the region. 'Kazakhstan alone may have more oil than Saudi Arabia. Turkmenistan is already known to have the fifth largest gas reserves in the world.' A consortium including BP, Mobil, Shell. and Total has just completed what is thought to be the largest seismic study ever undertaken, in the Caspian Sea region of Kazakhstan. costing more than pounds 130 million."

1739. Christopher Lockwood (Diplomatic Ed.) in DAILY TELEGRAPH. Oct. 11.96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"We have got to have alternatives (to Persian Gulf oil) and the Caspian Sea represents the best bets. This is going to be the great gain of the early part of the 21st century, getting the oil out of the Caspian Sea available to the west.' The intense interest of oil companies in Azerbaijan is not surprising. The Caspian Sea region contains as much as 200 billion barrels worth of recoverable oil, making the area the world's great alternative to Arab oil."

1740. Charles Curtis (Undersec. of Energy) in FDCH POLITICAL TRANSCRIPTS, Sept. 4, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/I 2/97).
"What really counts in determining the world energy balance is what happens in Russia, what happens in the Caspian Sea, in the Caucasus and in the Western Hemisphere. That's where the world's capacity for diversifying the world oil supply off of the Persian Gulf exists."

1741. ECONOMIST, May 4, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"Over the past ten years few new giant oilfields have been discovered. Caspian reserves are one of the best hopes of preventing another OPEC-induced oil shock."

1742. Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. (Sr. Policy Analyst) in HERITAGE FNDN. REPORTS, Jan. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The U.S. needs to ensure free and fair access for all interested parties to the oil fields of the Caucasus and Central Asia. These resources are crucial to ensuring prosperity in the first half of the 21st century and beyond. Access to Eurasian energy reserves could reduce the West's dependence on Middle East oil and ensured lower oil and gas prices for decades to come."

1743. Douglas Busvine (Staff) in REUTER'S EURO. BUS. REPORT, Apr. 30, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Kazakhstan said on Tuesday a new policy hammered out with Russia would defuse problems blocking development of the Caspian Sea's vast oil and gas reserves."

1744. Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. (Sr. Policy Analyst) in HERITAGE FNDN. REPORTS, Jan. 25, 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. Yet another bloody war affecting potential oil pipeline routes is occurring in Nagomo-Karabakh, a small, largely Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan. The enclave of Karabakh sits astride a potential oil route from the Caspian Sea to Turkey. Populated mainly by Armenians, Karabakh was put under Azerbaijan's jurisdiction in 1921 after Stalin negotiated a treaty in the Transcaucasus between communist Russia and Turkey. Strife between the mainly Christian Armenians and Shi'a Muslim Azerbaijanis broke out in 1988. Full-scale war erupted in 1992, with the Armenians demanding complete independence for Karabakh or its absorption into Armenia. A cease-fire negotiated in May 1994 has been holding."

1745. Thomas Land (Foreign Correspondent) in CHR. SCI. MON., Oct. 15. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Russia and Kazakhstan hope they have found a compromise over the status of the Caspian Sea that could resolve a stubborn conflict delaying the development of its enormous offshore hydrocarbon reserves. The resolution of the issue may well create a dependable new oil and gas industry supplying the needs of Western Europe from resources that dwarf even those of the Persian Gulf. Last week, the deputy foreign ministers of the live Caspian countries completed three days of talks on the legal status of the Caspian Sea."

1746. James Flanigan (Staff), LA TIMES. Aug. 25, 96 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97).
"And longer-term analysts look at new production rising in Latin America, Asia. and particularly in Azerbaijan. Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea. the region of the former Soviet Union that was one of two birthplaces of the world oil in the 19th century. (Pennsylvania was the other.) Even after a century and a half of production. the Caspian region contains 4 billion barrels of oil equal to almost half the quantity of the original North Sea or North Slope of Alaska fields. And that oil is now becoming more accessible thanks to new technology being employed by U.S. and other foreign companies."

1747. Ariel Cohen. Ph.D. (Sr. Policy Analyst) in HERITAGE FNDN. REPORTS. Jan. 25.96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
'Competing political interests inside Russia's neighbors often prompt local elites to challenge the faction in power and to seek Moscow's support."

1748. Ariel Cohen. Ph.D. (St. Policy Analyst) in HERITAGE FNDN. REPORTS. Jan. 25.96 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97).
"With the collapse of the Soviet Union. President Boris Yellsin called for a re-examination of Russia's borders to the detriment of her neighbors. especially Ukraine and Kazakhstan. For example, upon his return from a state visit to the U.S. in September 1994. Yeltsin reiterated Russia's 'right' to conduct 'peacemaking' in the 'near abroad.' to protect Russian speakers and to exercise freedom of action in its sphere of influence."

1749. Ariel Cohen. Ph.D. (St. Policy Analyst) in HERITAGE FNDN. REPORTS. Jan. 25.96 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"For example. Russian oil chieftains in Kazakhstan and military commanders who are still in place in Moldova and Georgia naturally maintain close links with Moscow."

1750. June O'Neil (Dir. Cong. Budget Office) in FEDERAL NEWS SERV. Jan. 29. 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/4/97).
"Both of those cautions highlight the need to make a major effort to reduce the deficit in the near term. Taking action now would contribute to assuring budgetary stability in the next century, particularly if the policy changes adopted deal with the problems associated with federal health care and other retirement benefits. Doing so would make the additional policy changes required in the future much less painful."

1751. ATLANTA JRNL. & CONSTITUTION, Dec. 15.96 (Online. Nexis. 4/4/97).
"According to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. the federal government takes a smaller bite of the nation's economic output today than it did in 1975."

1752. REUTER'S EURO. BUS. REPORT, Oct. 23, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"'1 don't see any scary outcomes for bonds,' said Ferridge, a currency strategist. 'There is political will to reduce government deficits not only in the U.S. but elsewhere--and that goes for Democrats and Republicans.' President Bill Clinton is so far ahead in opinion polls that markets almost take it for granted he will be re-elected on November 5, and attention has turned to the political complexion of the legislature he would govern with next year."

1753. Robert Rubin (U.S. Treasury Sec.), FEDERAL NEWS SERV., Mar. 11, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"During the past four years, our assumptions were realistic and conservative. And over this period. the actual deficit fell more than we projected and our projections were more accurate than CBO's. In each of the last three years, the actual deficits have come in on average about $50 billion lower each year than we've projected, and almost $60 billion lower on average than the CBO projection, all of which I would guess must be pretty much unprecedented."

1754. Robert Rubin (U.S. Treasury See.), FEDERAL NEWS SERV.. Mar. 11, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/4/97).
"The '93 deficit reduction program has reduced the size of the deficit from 4.7 percent to 1.4 percent of our economy. of GDP. And that deficit reduction in turn brought interest rates down, inspired broad-based business confidence, and that was central to the economic conditions that we have enjoyed for the last four years. I believe that .just as deficit reduction has been critical to the strong economic conditions that we have enjoyed during the past four years. so it is critical to a strong economy over the long term. And that is why we are committed to going to a balanced budget and putting in place balanced budget legislation this year."

1755. ATLANTIC MONTIII.Y. July 96, 43.
'"But what if the one thing we all know is wrong or,. more precisely, what if it is out of date? In the early 1980s. when budget deficits were soaring as a share of the national economy, politicians were slow to recognize the political and social distortions that a decade of heavy borrowing could create. Since the early 1990s, in contrast. budget deficits have been shrinking in relative and absolute terms."

1756.  ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, Jan. 19, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"Now that the 1996 election is over, the two parties are expected to work together to solve the deficit problem. Leaders of both parties claim they will."

1757. ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE. Oct. 4. 96 (Online, Nexis. 4/4/97).
"With a balanced budget now a real goal and not just empty rhetoric, the deficit has been shrinking and confidence in the economy has been growing. The other week, the government reported this piece of good news: Over the first 11 months of this fiscal year, the deficit was only $144 billion. With only September to go, it appears the country will record its lowest deficit since Ronald Reagan's first term as president. (Just a few years ago. the deficit had reached almost $300 billion.)"

1758.  INVESTOR'S BUS. DAILY, Jan. 27.97 {Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"The government must rein in spending and slash the budget deficit to safeguard the economy's future. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told senators yesterday. 'Deficit reduction is the highest priority.' The head of the central bank said, testifying before the Senate Budget Committee. 'The federal government drains off a large share of a regrettably small pool of domestic private saving,' he said. 'Nations ultimately must rely on their domestic savings to support domestic investment."'

1759. Edward Wyatt (Staff in NY TIMES, Apr. 6. 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"Signs of nervousness are starting to appear. AMG Data Services, a company in Arcata, Calif. that tracks cash flows, reported on Friday that equity mutual funds suffered a net outflow of $328 million in the week ended on Wednesday. Funds that invest primarily in growth stocks--that is, shares of companies with rapidly growing earnings--lost nearly $1 billion, the third consecutive week of outflows for that category."

1760. LA TIMES, Apr. 6. 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/6/97).
"The long-term appeal of U.S. stocks hasn't been dampened.  Dodge believes.  But in short term he expects more pain for the market, as investors begin a much more intensive questioning of the 'this time it's different' faith that has sustained this aging bull."

1761. LA TIMES, Apt. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"But with the violent decline in share prices over the last four weeks, many investors naturally have been forced to reconsider. Has something fundamental changed to irreparably harm the 'this time it's different' case for stocks--and to suggest that the market is teetering on the brink of a much deeper slide?"

1762. Walter Mead (Presidential Fellow, World Policy Inst) in LA TIMES, Apr. 6, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"In any case, the triple-digit losses on the Dow are less dramatic than they look. With the Dow near 7000, a fall of 150 points represents only 2% of the market's value. To match the percentage loss of the October 1987 crash, the Dow would have to lose about 1,425 points in one day. This is all very true, and very reassuring, but the nervousness evident in trading last week should warn us that there could be trouble ahead."

1763. Guy Halverson (Staff) in CHR. SCI. MON., Apr. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"The current selling in the market, says Ryding, represents a normal mini-correction. It is similar to a modest downturn in the summer of 1996. But that dip, he notes, did not arrest the larger momentum of the bull market, which has touched above 7000 this year. 'I fully expect [the Dow Jones industrial average] to be above 7000 by the end of the year,' he says."

1764. Jeffrey Ladennan (Staff) in BUS. WEEK, Apt. 7, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/6/97).
"For most investors, the first quarter's returns are more disappointing than disastrous. There's nothing yet to suggest the public has lost its appetite for funds. In the first two months of 1997, equity funds netted some $50 billion, a pace that, if kept up through the year, would certainly set a new record. But Robert Alder of AMG Data Services Inc. says the pace is slowing. He says equity funds only took in about $6 billion in the first two weeks of March, and investors are, on balance, pulling out of the aggressive small-company funds."

1765.  ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, Jan. 19, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"Suppose we do nothing to end the deficit. Greenspan believes this would lead to lower investment due to higher interest rates and the cost of servicing the debt. In turn, this would force the Fed to accommodate the deficit by pursuing an inflationary policy leading to still higher interest rates--a vicious cycle with no long-term solution."

1766. REUTER'S EURO. BUS. REPORT, Oct. 23, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"Ferridge said Clinton would veto any 'silly spending plans' by a new Democrat majority and tipped a strong Treasury rally could come early next year if markets judged Clinton was sticking to the deficit-cutting road. He said this would reduce the yield spread of Treasuries over German Bunds from its current 70 basis points, but European markets would also be carried higher in the process. Another bulwark against fiscal imprudence would be the Federal Reserve which Venables said would ratchet up interest rates if necessary to deter such behavior."

1767. Alan Greenspan (FRB Chairman) in FED. NEWS SERV., Jan. 26, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"The actions of the Congress and the administration in the fiscal sphere will also be important to the outlook for prices and the economy. There can be no doubt that the persistence of large federal budget deficits represents in the minds of many individuals a potential risk. While we certainly have avoided it in recent years, history is replete with examples of fiscal pressures leading to monetary excesses and then to greater inflation."

1768. AFX NEWS, Jan. 28, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"'Balancing the budget will induce favorable changes in the economy, slightly altering interest rates, economic growth and the share of GDP represented by corporate profits...[resulting in] 34 bln usd in increased revenues and reduced spending,' she said. O'Neill projected that, if no deficit-cutting plan is enacted, by 2002 the deficit will climb to 188 bln usd and by 2007 to 278 bin.' [Ellipsis in original]

1769. Alan Greenspan (FRB Chairman) in FED. NEWS SERV., Jan. 26, 95 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97).
"The federal deficit drains off a large share of a regrettably small pool of domestic private savings, thus contributing Further and perhaps to and even greater degree to the elevation of real rates of interest in the economy."

149

1770.  REUTER'S FINANCIAL SERV., Jan.26, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/4/97). 
"In the past the United States has been able to depend on capital from abroad to finance the budget deficit by Greenspan said that was not sustainable in the long run. 'Looking back at the history of the past century or more, the record would suggest that nations ultimately must rely on their domestic savings to support domestic investment,' he said. Greenspan made clear that the U.S. was paying a price for its budget deficits in the form of higher interest rates."

1771. ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July 96, 43.
"What are the likely economic consequences of all these things happening at once? In once of the following articles Thomas I. PalIey, a professor of economics at the New School for Social Research, argues that our next recession might turn into a depression."

1772.  Thomas Palley (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96, 58. 
"Changes in the international economy and the push for global free trade also make a depression more likely. Economists assert that free trade is good for American workers, and they have persistently advocated the elimination of tariffs. But they draw no distinction between, say, trade with West Germany and trade with lndonesia. Without doubt international trade promotes product choice and lowers prices through international competition. However, when trade rests exclusively on wage differentials. as does most trade with the Third World, it implicitly becomes an instrument for pushing down wages and pushing up profits."

1773. Penelope Hanland-Thunberg (Sr. Assoc, CSIS) in ORDER & DISORDER AITI'ER THE COLD WAR, 95, 367.
"The greatest contribution that the United States can make during the 1990s toward the success of the New World Order lies in strengthening its own economy. Only by increasing the productivity of its own resources can it once again raise its own standard of living, eliminate its dependence on foreign capital, and generate the resources necessary to support its foreign policy by example rather than exhortation. If the promise of the New World Order fails to materialize, the blame will fall in large measure on the United States."

1774.  Robert Levine (Staff) in ATLANTIC MONTHLY, July, 96. 61. 
"When the business cycle turns down again. and unemployment rises from its already high lows, the political and social effects may go beyond grumbling and petty meanness to expanding extremism in many areas or' American life."

1775. Paul Papayoanou (Prof., Pol. Sci., UCSD) in INT'L. SECURITY. Spring, 96, 50.
"In sum, the vested interests and prospective adjustment costs to economies generated by economic ties are likely to have a strong effect on the mobilization capacity of national security leaders hoping to balance against threats and on the expectations of other great powers. though domestic political institutions may alter the process by giving prominence to actors with preferences at variance with median economic interests."

1776. David Calico (Dir. European Studies, Johns Hopkins) in WORLD POLICY JRNL., Summer, 96, 63.
"Several recent incidents between the United States and France--some involving obvious industrial espionage and others heavy-handed government intervention in sales--suggest growing trouble for transatlantic economic and political relations. In short, the vigorous application of supposedly liberal remedies threatens to become, in itself, a major source of international friction."

1777. Dale C. Copeland (Asst. Prof., Foreign Affairs, UVA) in INT'L. SECURITY, Spring 96, 14.
"This point becomes clearer as one examines Rosecrance's explanations for the two World Wars. World War I1, for Rosecrance. was ultimately domestically driven. The main aggressors saw war as a means to cope with the upheavals flowing from 'social discontent and chaos' and the 'danger of left-wing revolutions'; given these upheavals, it is 'not surprising that the territorial and military-political system [i.e., war] emerged as an acceptable alternative to more than one state. "'

1778. Paul Papayoanou (Prof;, Pol. Sci., UCSD) in INT'L. SECURITY, Spring, 96, 43.
"Thus, economic ties and political institutions determine whether strategists have the capacity to balance against threats they perceive, and whether they might pursue expansionist goals. Moreover, I argue, these domestic mobilization processes affect the expectations that the state leaders have about one another's intentions, and this has a strong effect on the international strategic interaction process between potential allies and adversaries. Thus, by affecting both the capacities of state leaders and others' expectations, economic ties and political institutions determine the strategies great powers pursue in balance-of-power politics."

1779. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 27.
"The number and size of environmental organizations have continually expanded since the mid- 1 980s. This growth is suggested in Table 1-3, which compares reported membership figures for seven major environmental groups in 1983, 1989, and 1992."

1780. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 22.
"The many groups marching under the environmental banner continue to grow in number, sophistication, and political aggressiveness."

1781. William Stevens (Sci. Writer, NYT), MIRACLE UNDER THE OAKS, 95, 6.
"This book is about that impulse and about how some people are acting on it. Their efforts are fueling a rapidly growing new grassroots environmental movement of potentially great breadth and three. They have given birth to a new scientific enterprise and have challenged some of the conventional scientific wisdom about the way in which natural ecosystems are put together."

1782. Bob Edwards (Prof.. Catholic U. of Am.) in POPULAR ECOLOGICAL RESISTANCE IN THE AMERICAS. 95, 51.
"By Earth Day 2000 the grassroots movement will have had an enduring impact on the environmental movement as a whole. Already the environmental constituency has been broadened. No matter how much the mainstream may recoil from grassroots rhetoric, tactics and demands, their lobbying position will be enhanced by it."

1783.  Mark Dowie (Ed.. Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 133. 
"Today, grassroots anti-toxic environmentalism is a far more serious threat to polluting industries than the mainstream environmental movement. Not only do local activists network, share tactics, and successfully block many dumpsites and industrial developments, they also stubbornly refuse to surrender or compromise."

1784. Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 207.
"The fourth wave of American environmentalism will be very American. By all indications, the movement is already well on its way to becoming multiracial. multiethnic, multiclass, and multicultural. It also contains many traits that characterized the American Revolution--dlogged determination, radical inquiry, a rebellion against economic hegemony, and a quest for civil authority at the grassroots."

1785. Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95,263.
"I began this project believing that the only hope for the environment was its rediscovery by a whole new movement led by the twenty-first-century descendants of Henry David Thoreau, John Muir, Aldo Leopold, Edward Abbey, Alice Hamilton, Bob Marshall, Rachel Carson, and Martin Luther King. 1 still believe that. And I believe it i~ happening. The American environmental movement has only begun."

1786. Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 135.
"As CCHW and other networking organizations have grown, so have the targets of anti-toxic actions--from dump sites to incinerator sites, deep-well injections, landfills, pesticides, radioactive hazards, military nerve gas, acid rain, Agent Orange, electronic pollution, microwave radiation, and, eventually, to global threats such as ozone depletion and global warming. Gradually, as toxics were found to contribute to habitat destruction, species extinction, and loss of wetlands, the anti-toxics agenda entered the terrain of the conservationists and the potential for a broad environmental coalition became real."

1787.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 261-2. 
"Grassroots activists, on the other hand, seem to sense that much more is riding on the ability of the American environmental movement to reinvent itself than the success of a legislative strategy, or the ability to prod scofflaw regulators with litigation. 'With the life-sustaining capability of the biosphere at stake. this is no time for tired old tactics' one activist told me, 'nor are incrementalist strategies adequate.' What is clearly surfacing within the American environmental movement is some much-needed belly fire and a willingness to be audacious, confrontational, unpopular, and unphotogenic. That gives me hope."

1788.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 81. 
"'Adopting national air ambiance standards in the Clean Air Act was the biggest mistake we ever made,' according to Leon Billings, an environmental consultant and former staff director of the Senate Public Works Committee. 'Citizens-for-clean-air groups were beginning to get local governments to adopt tougher standards around the country. much tougher than anticipated, and industry wanted to get out from under these local and regional activists who were coming after them everywhere. The Clean Air Act brought the fight to Washington where industry could manipulate things much more cleverly. And the nationals reflexively joined the process. When the bill passed, they declared victory. But was it a victory?"

1789. Mark Dowie (Ed:, Internation), LOSING GROUND. 95.77.
"The lesson of Glen Canyon, and of scores of other environmental defeats, is that compromise will only gain results if one party is willing to do something more drastic than cut a deal. Unless some enviros at the table are prepared to walk out, sit in at a government office, picket a polluting factory. boycott a product until it hurts. or even chain themselves to a thousand-year-old redwood, attempts to compromise will lead inevitably,,, to failure."

1790.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND. 95.6. 
"Compromise, which had produced some limited gains for the movement in the 1970s, in 1980s became the habitual response of the environmental establishment. It is still applied almost reflexively. even in the face of irreversible degradations. These compromises have pushed a once-effective movement to the brink of irrelevance."

1791. Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 243.
"The federal government's inability to protect air quality has stimulated states and metropolitan regions to take on the task. If Los Angeles ever has clean air it will be because local enviros stopped lying to Washington to lobby EPA and Congress and stayed at home to work with area residents, the Los Angeles Clean Air Coalition. the Labor/Community Strategy Center, and others to challenge the Los Angeles Air Quality Monitoring Board and the polluting corporations."

1792.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation). LOSING GROUND, 95. 193. 
"'Lobbyists are suffering from the delusion that they have clout because they have the name of a national organization behind them.' says Stewart Brandborg, former head of the Wilderness Society. James Dougherty, a vice president of Defenders of Wildlife and a member of the lobby. Legislative advocacy at the federal level--traditionally the environmental movement's mainstay--now requires an ever increasing amount of hard work to make significant progress... [Compare] the relatively easy campaign to enact the Superfund law in 1980 with the I I-year struggle to amend the Clean Air Act in 1990. In the 1970s we looked to federal agencies for progressive stewardship of this nation's resources. and with them formed partnerships such as the one that won enactment of the 1980 Alaska Lands Act. Since then our energies have gone largely to overcoming bureaucratic intransigence.'

1793. Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95.85.
"No matter how large, clever, and sophisticated in the ways of Washington the environmental movement has become, when it comes to lobbying Congress. it has remained a mosquito on the hindquarters of the industrial elephant. Corporations finance a lobby that is willing to spend almost unlimited time and money combating a process --environmental regulation--they claim costs them $125 billion a year. Chemical manufacturers, oil companies, big agriculture. timber interests, and their PACs will, unless campaign finance laws are reformed. always have greater access to the legislature than environmental lobbyists."
1794.  
Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 12. 
"Drawing from Plato's Republic, Jean-Jacques Rousseau lamented the corruption of nature in humanity he believed was induced by property, agriculture, technology, and commerce. Like Sir Thomas More in Utopia, Rousseau was critical of existing mores and values and sought a design to reconstruct society. In his Discourses he challenged the belief that better technologies, material wealth, and knowledge would lead to the improvement of humanity and morality. Large commercial centers, he warned, were bad for the human spirit. He prescribed instead the formation of cooperative agrarian communities."

1795.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 225. 
"Rachel Carson, in a speech made as she was dying of cancer in 1964, laid out the ideological foundation for the next generation of environmentalists. 'What is important is the relation of man to all of life. This has never been so tragically overlooked as in our present age, when through our technology we are waging war against the natural world. It is a valid question whether any civilization can do this and retain the right to be called civilized. By acquiescing in needless destruction and suffering, our stature as human beings is diminished."

1796. Bron Taylor (Prof., U. W1) in POPULAR ECOLOGICAL RESISTANCE IN THE AMERICAS, 95, 335.
"Ramachandra Guha concluded similarly that, among their many causes, 'undeniably [the most important is] the deterioration of the ecosystem' and the social stresses which follow. In less economically marginal contexts, resistance may be grounded more in concerns about health than subsistence, as Edwards's analysis shows. Nonetheless, threats to human livelihood and health provide the most important reasons for the global emergence and proliferation of popular ecological resistance."

1797. Bemhard Glaeser (Social Sci. Rsrch. Ctr.. Berlin). ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURE: INTEGRATED POLICY THROUGH HUMAN ECOLOGY, 95, 72.
"The nonnative structure of an environmental policy must develop further out of crisis and catastrophes if society is to survive. The real or predicted occasions of this development include environmental pollution, which disrupts the entire economic system. global limits to economic growth, depletion of genetic stock, or nuclear war. In such cases, society's survival itself may become the highest value. from which, together with a set of additional supportive conditions, a material value ethics can be derived."

1798.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 76. 
"Brower still cautions his fellow activists to eschew compromise.  'The problem with too many environmentalists today is that they are trying to write the compromise instead of letting those we pay to compromise to do it,' Brower says. 'They think they get power by taking people to lunch. or being taken to lunch, when in reality they are just being taken. They don't seem to learn, as I did at Glen Canyon, that whenever they compromise they lose."'

1799.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 59. 
"Grassroots organizers make much of the fact that mainstream leaders allow corporate executives, lawyers, and directors on their boards. 'The adversary has joined without being defeated,' says James Thornton, a former NRDC lawyer not living in Santa Fe. Corporate affiliation on environmental boards is a legitimate concern, but it begs the question of what is actually occurring."

1800. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 264.
"So intimate is the association between energy and environmental quality--a link revealed again by the emerging problems of global climate warming and acid precipitation---that the nation's environmental agenda for the 1990s will become energy policy by another name. The environmental movement has always recognized the interdependence of energy and environmental policy."

1801.  Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 224. 
"Would an environmental ideology see humans as an integral part of the environment or would it regard the environment as something that surrounds humans without quite including them? Are we wrapped by the environment or somehow above it? Is the environment our gestalt? Or are we and our created environment the planet's gestalt? Is it to be 'man [sic] and nature' or man in nature? One way we perish, the other way we survive, say various ideologies. But which is which? However you see it, it seems clear that we need an entirely new perspective. Name it ecocentric, biocentric, or whatever you like. The old paradigms, life styles, and ideologies of industrial culture must be challenged, and eventually replaced." [Emphasis in original]

1802. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 24
"Many environmentalists believe that the nation's dominant political institutions and processes must be reformed because they are committed to the preservation of ecological, economic, and technological values that are hostile to prudent ecological management. For some, this is summed up as suspicion of the establishment' and the traditional institutions and processes associated with it. A. Susan Leeson argues. 'If American political ideology and institutions have been successful in encouraging the pursuit of happiness through material acquisition, they appear incapable of imposing the limits which are required to forestall ecological disaster."'

1803. William Greider (Ed.. Rolling &one Magazine), ONE WORLD. READY OR NOT, 97, 448-9.
"Across the last generation, the environmental ethic has described the outlines of how to resolve the dilemma: what is required is nothing less than a radical transformation of the industrial system itself. its production practices and pricing methods, the economic assumptions surrounding enterprise and consumption."

1804. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci.. U. FL). ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 128-9.
"Problems in environmental policy making have become the quiet crises of the contemporary environmental movement as serious as any global ecological derangement apparent at the beginning of Era II. In the years since 1970, environmental regulation has become thoroughly institutionalized through numerous laws, regulatory agencies old and new, and the development of political structures linking governing institutions. regulatory agencies, states, environmental groups, regulated interests, and others in a continuing policy-making network. The policy-making process institutionalized in this way appears as much a problem as an accomplishment."

1805. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci.. U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95. 129.
"When the Conservation Foundation asserted in 1989 that the foremost domestic problem in environmental policy making was 'an overarching need to rethink the whole structure of the apparatus that we have in place for solving the problem of pollution and waste,' it captured a pervasive sentiment within the environmental movement."

1806. Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND. 95, 134.
"For business leaders accustomed to the polite and accommodating style of mainstream environmental leaders the NIMBYs have created a complete now problem. It can be argued (though it is difficult to prove) that grassroots environmental resistance during the past live to ten years has stopped more direct pollution than all the nationals' litigation combined."

1807. Mark Dowie (Ed., Internation), LOSING GROUND, 95, 134.
"The environmental ad hocracy has been so effective that the problem of siting facilities has assumed major proportions for the waste-management industry. Neutralizing the grassroots movement has therefore become a priority of the petrochemical and synthetics establishments. 'They are the most radicalized groups I've seen since Vietnam,' says William Ruckelshaus, CEO of Browining-Ferris, a waste-management firm based in Houston. 'They've been empowered by their own demands. They can block things. That's a negative power. But it's real power. Right or wrong you can't bull your way through that kind of opposition."

1808. William Stevens (Sci. Writer, NYT), MIRACLE UNDER THE OAKS, 95. 195.
"No longer content to try to hold the line in an often losing attempt to protect nature, conservationists are at last moving from the defensive to the offensive. They are striking back, and restoration is their tool. Restoration makes it possible to go beyond preserving what remains of nature to reexpand its reach."

1809. William Stevens (Sci. Writer, NYT), MIRACLE UNDER THE OAKS. 95, 149.
"'One becomes pessimistic if you think of [the biodiversity problem] in terms of years or decades,' says Michael Soule of the University of Califomia at Santa Cruz. 'But if we can protect most of the larger life forms on the planet and maintain healthy examples of most of the biological systems. the ecosystems, then I think there's hope in the long run for restoration to reanimate and revivify the planet once this [population surge] has passed."'

1810. William Stevens (Sci. Writer, NYT), MIRACLE UNDER THE OAKS, 95, 150.
"Restoration could turn out to be a godsend if the threat of global warming materializes as a result of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas. The world's organisms and ecosystems have adapted many times in the remote past to climatic changes as big or bigger than that expected to result from human activity. Those natural changes took place over hundreds or thousands of years, however; anthropogenic global warming, if it develops as many climatologists predict. will take place in mere decades. and many organisms and ecosystems would likely not be able to adapt that quickly."

1811. Charles Wolf, Jr. (Dean, The Rand Grad. Sch., CA), BUS. ECONOMICS, July, 96, 10.
"International capital markets will be intensely competitive. In this ensuing competition for scarce long-term capital. the winners will be those that are successful in sustaining high levels of economic growth, and those whose economic, legal. and regulatory policies meet the concerns of foreign investors, and engage the 'animal spirits' that often motivate them."

1812. Erik R. Peterson (Prof Strategic Studies, MIT) in NEW FORCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, 96. 11.
"Furthermore, no single economic power seems predisposed to spearhead an effort to defuse the potential of conflicting industrial policies. In the meantime, 'competition between governments [is progressively replacing] competition between companies as industrial activities become more and more global."'

1813. Roger Terry (Fmr. Prof, Mgt., Brigham Young U.), ECONOMIC INSANITY, 95, 164.
"This brings up the question of free trade, which nearly all economists subscribe to. Free trade between nations, we ought to understand, is not analogous to free trade within a single nation. The difference is that free trade within a nation encourages the unrestricted movement of both capital and labor, while free trade between nations brings only the unrestricted movement of capital. Labor, for the most part, stays put. which results not in mutual benefit to both nations, but significantly lower wages in the country that loses capital." [Emphasis in original]

1814. Daniel F. Burton Jr. (Pres., Council on Competitiveness) in NEW FORCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, 96, 97.
"With talent. technology and capital mobile around the world. countries are very much in competition with each other for the skills and investment that fuel economic growth."

1815. Peter H. May (Prof., Ecological Eco., Fed. Rural U.-Brazil) in PRICING THE PLANET, 96. 18.
"While mobile capital gravitates toward its more profitable application, investors may be thereby seeking opportunities to undercut labor remuneration and avoid pollution control costs, so maintaining competitiveness at the expense of workers and the environment."

1816. Herman E. Duly (Prof., Pub. Affairs, U. MD), BEYOND GROWTH, 96, 147.
"All of these social and environmental measures raise costs and cannot withstand the standards-lowering competition induced by free trade with countries that have lower standards. The consequence is that a greater share of total world production will move to those countries with the lowest standards--that is, those that do the poorest job of counting and internalizing costs will produce an increasing share of world output--hardly a move in the direction of global efficiency!"

152

1817. Kenneth Berlin & Jeffrey M. Lang (Atty. in Trade & Envir. Law, & Chief Int'l. Trade Counsel, U.S. Sen., Comm. on Finance) in NEW FORCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, 96, 166.
"Nevertheless. different standards unquestionably have an impact on trade patterns, and lax environmental standards in an exporting country harm the competitiveness of U.S. products vis-a-vis imports from that country and encourage, to at least some extent, U.S. industries to shift their production abroad. Some of this harm results from the failure of market mechanisms to measure the cost of pollution in the cost of production of goods accurately."

1818. Stephan Schmid Heiny &Frederico J. L. Zorraquin (Industrialists & Members of the World Bus. Council for Sustainable Devel.), FINANCING CHANGE, 96, 8.
"Efforts toward eco-efficiency by a company often reduce present earnings in favor of future potentials. Financial markets favor companies with high present earnings over those with future potentials. Given low resource prices and the ability of business to keep costs for much environmental damage 'external' to their own balance sheets, the profitability of becoming eco-efficient is reduced. Eco-efficient companies are often not preferred by financial markets."

1819. Stephan Schmid Heiny &Frederico J. L. Zorraquin (Industrialists & Members of the World Bus. Council for Sustainable Devel.), FINANCING CHANGE, 96, 169-70.
"Given low resource prices and the ability of business to keep costs for much environmental damage 'external' to their own balance sheets. the profitability of becoming eco-efficient is reduced. Leo-efficient companies are often not preferred by financial markets."

1820. Tom Athanasiou (Jrnlst., Envir. & Technology Politics), DIVIDED PLANET, 96, 194.
"Moreover, the TNCs control the bulk of global investments. decisive in shaping the future. For example, incalculably more money has been spent in the last forty years on nuclear rather than on solar power, not because of democratic decisions by communities or electorates. or because o f rational decisions by well-informed managers. but simply because of rational decision by well-informed managers, but simply because powerful firms have found in nuclear power a more profitable 'energy alternative."'

1821. J. Carter Beese, Jr. (Sr. Advisor, Ctr. for Strategic & Int'l. Studies. MIT) in NEW FORCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, 96, 364.
"In a world where capital knows no boundaries. Darwin's law of survival of the fittest applies. The cost and quality of regulation have become competitive factors. Where investor protection is provided in an efficient and cost effective manner without overly burdening issuers, markets will thrive. Where excessive regulatory burdens impose unnecessary barriers to the capital formation process. however. markets will wither."

1822. James Goldsmith (Rep.. Euro. Parliament) in THE CASE AGAINST THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, 96, 173.
"It must surely be a mistake to adopt an economic policy that makes you rich if you eliminate your national workforce and transfer production abroad and that bankrupts you if you continue to employ your own people."

1823. James Goldsmith (Rep, Euro. Parliament) in THE CASE AGAINST THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, 96, 173.
"According to the Wall Street Journal, IBM plans to establish this new site with an undetermined Asian partner and use non-IBM employees so that it will be easier to move to an even lower-cost region when warranted. Moving from higher-cost regions to Asia cuts in half the cost of assembling a disk drive. Mr. Zschau of lBM 'admitted that the moves will put IBM on only even footing with its competitors."'

1824. Erik R. Peterson (Prof. Strategic Studies, MIT) in NEW FORCES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY, 96, 3-4.
"Because of the increasingly binding constraints placed on national economic policy-making by the process of global economic integration, the temptation for the major economies to engage in defensive strategies by supporting national 'strategic' industries--especially high-technology industries--could bring the major capitalism into collision. The operative question is whether the governments concerned will succumb to the growing tendency to 'pursue relative gains at the expense of mutual gains [and] political power at the expense of economic welfare,' or whether they will be able to devise a system of rules and appropriate institutional vehicle to defuse the potential for escalating economic clashes between respective 'national champions."'

1825. William Greider (Ed., Rolling Stone Magazine), ONE WORLD, READY OR NOT, 97, 81.
"A corporation's power is naturally strongest if it is dealing with a small, very poor countries desperate for industrial development. The terms typically involve special political favors not available to others in commerce: state subsidies, exemption from taxation, government suppression of workers, special status as export enclaves free of import duties. With these protective benefits, commerce is able to leap across the deepest social and economic divisions, bringing advanced production systems to primitive economies, disturbing ancient cultures with startling elements of modernity."

1826. Tom Athanasiou (Jrnlst., Envir. & Technology Politics), DIVIDED PLANET, 96, 194.
"The role of TNCs in global environmental destruction is just as staggering. TNC activities account for half of all oil, gas, and coal extraction, refining, and marketing. TNCs are responsible for over half the greenhouse gases emitted by industry. They produce almost all ozone-destroying compounds and dominate key minerals industries."

1827. Colin Hines & Tim Lang (Co-Dir., lnt'l. Forum on Globalization & Prof., Food Policy, Thames Valley U., UK) in THE CASE AGAINST THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, 96, 489.
"In sum, this formidable (and rising) concentrated control over world output is not hopeful news for employment. The world's total of one hundred thousand TNCs, large and small, employs only 65 million people, just 3 percent of the world's estimated workforce. TNCs have shed labor heavily. In just one year, March 1992 to 1993, according to the Institute of Directors, the top one thousand British companies shed 1.5 million jobs and reduced their total workforce from 8.6 million to just over 7 million. Small enterprises will not be able to take up the slack."

1828. William Greider (Ed., Rolling Stone Magazine), ONE WORLD, READY OR NOT, 97, 73.
"Many orthodox economists oddly neglected the supply question: the global overabundance of cheaper labor. This surplus was most obviously threatening to highly paid factory workers, but it was beginning to claim highly skilled workers in the front office as well --engineers and other industrial professionals."

1829. William Naughton (Project Mgr., Nuclear Strategic Svcs. Group) in NUCLEAR NEWS, Aug., 96. 26.
"Hence, it is necessary for the DOE to begin the weapons conversion process in the United States and to secure the maximum available excess capacity as soon as possible, to ensure a sufficient MOX fuel supply for CLWRs to burn and dispose of, in a timely and efficient manner. It is imperative form a utility perspective that once the program starts, a continuous fuel supply be maintained. A stop-start-stop program will be too disruptive, costly, inefficient and unattractive."

1830. Victor Rezendes (Dir., Energy & Sci. Issues, Resources, Community, & Eco. Devel. Div.) in ENERGY, June, 95, 4.
"Underscoring DOE's basic management weakness is DOE's lack of significant workforce skills in key technical areas, and the management information systems to oversee and direct contractors. This is a fundamental problem reported by us, the DOE Inspector General, and outside oversight groups."

1831. Victor Rezendes (Dir., Energy & Sci. Issues, Resources, Community, & Eco. Devel. Div.) in ENERGY, June, 95, 4.
"Created to deal predominantly with the 'energy crisis' of the 1970s, DOE's mission and budget priorities have changed dramatically. By the early 1980s, its nuclear weapons production activities expanded dramatically, stretching DOE to its physical managerial limits. Following revelations about environmental mismanagement in the mid to late 1980s, DOE's environmental budget began to grow and now overshadows all other activities. With the Cold War's end, DOE's missions have expanded to include major new activities in science and technology transfer. With each new phase in its evolution has come leadership with vastly different agendas for what they believe DOE really should be and how it should be managed."

1832. Victor Rezendes (Dir., Energy & Sci. Issues, Resources, Community, & Eco. Devel. Div.) in ENERGY, June, 95, 6.
"'High-Risk' Activities: The agency will focus its resources more heavily on 'high risk' activities. For example, it is addressing and will continue to address the urgent risk in the system, system, such as spent nuclear fuel, the Hanford tanks, and plutonium. Currently, it tends to spend 20% of its resources on what could be termed 'low risk' environmental restoration and waste management activities."

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1833. Victor Rezendes (Dir., Energy & Sci. Issues, Resources, Community, & Eco. Devel. Div.) in ENERGY, June, 95, 4.
"While energy research, conservation and policy-making dominated early DOE priorities, weapons production and now environmental cleanup overshadow its budget. New missions in science and industrial competitiveness have emerged."

1834. Victor Rezendes (Dir., Energy & Sci. Issues, Resources. Community, & Eco. Devel. Div.) in ENERGY, June, 95, 6.
"Moving DOE missions to other federal entities--such as assigning the weapons complex to the Defense Dept.--will clearly affect the missions of the 'gaining' agency. In addition, some DOE present missions--in science education, technology competitiveness, and environmental waste, for example--might best be combined with similar missions from other agencies."

1835. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst. Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41. #1, 95.2.
"According, DOE facilities use a variety of precautions to protect workers who handle plutonium and the communities near their sites. These facilities have sophisticated ventilation systems with multiple banks of high-efficiency filters to trap plutonium particles: containment devices (like gloveboxes) to confine the plutonium; routine air, ground. and water monitoring systems to check ambient radioactivity levels: protective clothing and head covers for workers: and extensive training programs for workers. Millions of dollars have been spent to ensure the safe handling of plutonium at the facilities.'

1836. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices)~ PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1, 95, 4.
"According to the NAS study, the primary goal of any plan to dispose of surplus plutonium should be to 'minimize the risks to national and international security posed by the existence of this material.' Obviously, the greatest danger in any plutonium disposition project is that some of the missile materials might be reintroduced by the superpowers, other countries. or terrorists into functional nuclear weapons."

1837. Jason Wakelield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1.95, 4.
"Under this standard, the goal is to process the weapons-grade plutonium to a point that it is in the same physical state as spent fuel from commercial reactors, which is highly radioactive and much less amenable to use in weapons. Plutonium in this state can only be used in a bomb using sophisticated technology; i.e., terrorists could not use spent fuel to make a crude bomb (even if they could figure out a way to separate the plutonium from the radioactive spent fuel.)"

1838. William Naughton (Project Mgr., Nuclear Strategic Svcs. Group)in NUCLEAR NEWS. Aug., 96, 24.
"Current MOX (mixed-oxide fuel, a mixture of uranium and plutonium) fuel cycle isotopic compositions match those of uranium fuel cycles with respect go production of reactor grade plutonium. The amount of reactor-grade plutonium generated, therefore, will remain constant. In the reactor burn option, however, a significant quantity of the fissile weapons plutonium will be consumed while the normal amount of reactor-grade plutonium is produced, with the remaining quantity of the missile weapons plutonium essentially rendered proliferation-resistant. because it will be contained in the highly radioactive spent fuel matrix."

1839. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1, 95, 3.
"The economic value of plutonium, therefore, is a complex issue. Under current economic and technological conditions, plutonium is not a competitively priced fuel source. However, it is likely to become so at some point in the future. It does not make sense to treat as waste a potentially beneficial (at least from an economic perspective) substance merely because current market conditions are unfavorable to its use. The more prudent approach is to consider plutonium as a long-term economic asset with substantial storage costs. The long-term storage costs, as opposed to current economic conditions, should drive any decision to treat plutonium as an economic liability."

1840. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1, 95, 3.
"The economic value of plutonium is an issue that shapes the entire debate about the disposition of surplus plutonium. Specifically, the question is whether surplus plutonium is an economic asset that should be used as a source of energy or a waste product that should be disposed of in a safe manner. President Clinton, in his September 27, 1993, nonproliferation initiative, took a clear stance on this issue. 'The United States does not encourage the civil use of plutonium reprocessing for either nuclear power or nuclear explosive purposes.' However, other countries--most notably the European countries, Russia, and Japan---consider plutonium an economic asset and have invested heavily in their plutonium fuel cycles."

1841. William Naughton (Project Mgr., Nuclear Strategic Svcs. Group) in NUCLEAR NEWS, Aug., 96, 24-5.
Finally, the equity or resource recovery aspect is based on the fact that the resources for the development and use of plutonium as a nuclear deterrent for the past 50 years were supplied, in the case of the United States, by the taxpayers. Only the reactor bum option offers an opportunity for partial recovery of those resources in the form of electrical energy. Thus, at ComEd this effort has been designated Project PEACE (Plutonium Excess Arms Converted to Electricity)."

1842. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst. Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT. Vol. 41. #1, 95.2.
"Finally, the crisis in the former Soviet republics creates concern about the safeguarding of the surplus missile materials in those states. The much publicized illegal exportation of plutonium to Germany is symptomatic of these concerns. Between May and October 1994, there were four seizures of plutonium traced back to the former Soviet republics by German police. In September 1994, the central command for Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces had its power cut off for failing to pay its electric bills. Finally, in August 1994, there was a reported fire at a Russian nuclear reprocessing plant that released radioactive gases into the atmosphere. These events merely underscore the concern over the state of missile materials in the former Soviet Union."

1843. William Naughton (Project Mgr.. Nuclear Strategic Svcs. Group) in NUCLEAR NEWS, Aug., 96, 24.
"Additionally, reactor bum is the only option in which the fissile weapons plutonium inventory is reduced. That also results in a reduction of uranium mining, milling, conversion, and associated enrichment processes and services, thus providing a reduction of use of a national resource. Regardless of the option chosen, current CLWRs will continue to operate. albeit with uranium fuel cycles."

1844. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst. Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1. 95, 5.
"U.S. Light Water Reactors. The only U.S. reactors that could be converted relatively cheaply to MOX compatibility are commercial LWRs that are currently operating in the United States. The NAS study estimates that the technical and regulatory steps required for conversion of U .S. LWR.s to MOX compatibility could be completed in about ten years, and the entire 50 tons of plutonium could be processed in 20 to 40 years using U.S. LWRs."

1845. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1. 95. 4-5.
"One popular option involves 'burning' the plutonium as fuel in nuclear reactors. The plutonium is mixed with natural or depleted uranium to produce a mixed-oxide (MOX) substance that is used as fuel in a nuclear reactor. At the end of the fuel cycle, the remaining plutonium (which is generally a substantial fraction of the starting quantity) is made inaccessible by the fact that it is mixed with highly radioactive waste, and can be stored like spent nuclear fuel from other commercial reactors. Alternatively, the remaining plutonium can be processed almost completely through repeated fuel cycles."

1846. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1, 95, 5.
"This would not be an insurmountable obstacle, however, since the United States had a licensing process for MOX compatibility in commercial reactors in the 1970s before the program was abandoned by the Carter administration. Also, from a technical standpoint, the host LWRs could be converted fairly easily and cheaply to one third MOX compatibility (i.e., one-third of the reactor rods would burn MOX fuel) and could, in most cases, be converted into full MOX compatibility at a substantially higher cost and delay."

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1847. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1, 95, 6.
"MOX Fuel Processing U.S. LWRs Reduction of Risk--Overall, this option has a relatively low risk level. Transportation of fissile materials within the United States is considered fairly safe. Nevertheless, the risk of an unauthorized diversion can be reduced by reducing the number of sites."

1848. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1, 95, 6.
"Economic Costs or Benefits--This is one of the most economical options. since existing reactors, or reactors currently under construction, could be fairly easily converted into MOX compatibility."

1849. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst, Randall H. Erben Law Offices), PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMENT, Vol. 41, #1, 95, 3.
"The Clinton administration, not surprisingly, has fallen more in line with the earlier Carter approach. Remember that on September 27, 1993, the administration stated that, while it would not interfere with reprocessing efforts in Europe and Japan, the United States would not support plutonium reprocessing or plutonium fuel cycles. In addition, the initiative called for the exploration of 'means to limit the stock piling of plutonium from civil nuclear programs.' This 'lead by example' approach is curious and potentially ineffective since all other nuclear countries view plutonium as a valuable asset."

1850. William Naughton (Project Mgr., Nuclear Strategic Svcs. Group)in NUCLEAR NEWS. Aug., 96. 26.
"The reactor bum option is the optimal alternative for the disposition of surplus weapons plutonium. It meets all the NAS report's constraints. It is timely--being ready to move forward today. It is proliferation-resistant--meeting the spent fuel standard. It is the only option actually able to reduce over-all weapons plutonium inventories. And. it is also the only option that returns equity for the huge capital investment made by our citizens in the past."

1851. Jason Wakefield (Policy Analyst. Randall H. Erben Law Offices). PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMML:NT. Vol. 41. #1, 95.8.
"That being said, the reactor options are, in my opinion. superior to the storage options since the reactor options utilize the energy value of the plutonium. If the licensing issues could be resolved with the U.S. LWRs. that option would be an excellent solution to the issue. In addition, the advanced reactors could be a long-term solution if these reactors were being developed anyway (the governments could subsidize these projects for use in the disposition mission."

1852. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS. Summer. 96. 36.
"Presumably many inventions of the past few decades now await their chance to become successful innovations. Were they included, these could reverse the recent downward trend in the rate-of-:change curve by the late 1990s. Then the successful innovations, after a slow initial diffusion. would enter into the rapid. indeed exponentially growing part of their life cycle."

1853. Robin Broad (Prof, Sch.. lnt'l. Serv., Am.U.) in THIRD WORLD QRTLY.. Mar.. 96, 15.
"The World Bank has long argued that it has the solution to Southern problems. For some 15 years. it has implemented its solution through the vehicle of structural adjustment loans (SALS) in dozens of countries: it has been one of the leading--and most effective--advocates of privatization. freer trade and increased emphasis on exports. Its publications of recent years have declared success. Not only is the South growing, it argues. but the North-South gap is now narrowing."

1854. Robin Broad (Prof., Sch., Int'l. Serv., Am.U.) in THIRD WORLD QRTLY., Mar., 96, 7.
"During much of the Cold War, the central dilemma of development economics was how to reverse the growing economic gap between the rich and poor countries of the world. In recent years, the World Bank has declared a victory on that front. The Bank asserts that not only is the gap no longer growing, but indeed that it has begun to narrow. Moreover. the Bank claims. the free market policies it has spearheaded are at the core of the developing country turnabout that is closing the North-South gap."

1855. Shahron Chubin (Middle East Spec., Geneva Security Studies) in ORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95, 434.
"The United States will be a principal determinant of the character of North-South relations on these issues in the new international system. This fact alone has generated concern in the South. Especially after the lraqi crisis, the United States appears to feel not only that its capabilities have been tested but also that its judgment has been validated. From a distance at least a whiff of uncharacteristic hubris and quelrulousness is discernible."

1856. Shahron Chubin (Middle East Spec., Geneva Security Studies) in ORDER AFTER THE COLD WAR, 95,433.
"In other respects, too. the fate of the South inexorably impinges on that of the North. Due to the globalization of economies and the growth of interdependence (including the rise of transnational issues) areas cannot simply be insulated from the rest of the world."

1857. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS, Summer, 96, 39.
"The interdependence between individual artifacts and long-lived infrastructures creates our dilemma. Within two or three decades the United States could in principle change its entire fleet to zero-emission vehicles. In fact 99 percent of vehicles now on the road will be scrapped in this interval. Yet, this interval is too short for the diffusion of the required associated energy supply, transport. and delivery infrastructures, which will inevitably distend the rate of diffusion of end-use devices. Thus, key technologies that we can already envision to raise the quality of the environment probably must await the second half of the twenty-first century to become widespread and influential."

1858. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS, Summer, 96, 39.
"A second strategy opts for more radical departures from existing technologies and practices. However, these strategies. such as the development of fuel cells and hydrogen for energy, although more effective in the long run, require much more time to implement because of the multiplicity of forward and backward linkages between technologies. infrastructures, and forms of organization for their production and use."

1859. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 128.
"In Latin America, Africa. and Asia, the social structure of a nation or of a local community is often in sharp contrast to that in Euro-America. Power, economic wealth, and information are usually more highly concentrated in a few hands, and this aspect of social structure affects not only the nature of an innovation's diffusion but also who reaps the main advantages and disadvantages of such technological change. The classical diffusion model was conceived in sociocultural conditions that were substantially different from those in Latin America (or Africa and Asia), and hence, Bordenave (1976) argued. when the diffusion model was used uncritically, it did not touch such basic issues as changing the social structure in these developing countries."

1860. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS, Summer, 96, 37.
"Even when such innovations are introduced successfully, their penetration rates in the initial phase of their diffusion life cycle are rather slow, and a matching new social and economic mediating context has still to emerge. In the phase-transition period, the old is saturating, and the new is still embryonic. Only afterr such a period of transition, crisis, and a mismatch does a prolonged period of widespread diffusion of a new sociotechnical 'bandwagon' and thus of growth become possible."

1861. lan Harvey (Chief Eco.. BTG plc) in INTERDISCIPLINARY SCl. REV., June, 96, 170.
"Innovation itself is a complex set of mainly human interactions. It comprises technology transfer, product development, marketing selling, delivery, and continuous product improvement and, most important, the management and speed of that process. It is not the simple, linear process that is often portrayed in the UK."

155

1862. Jennifer Tann (Prof., U. Birmingham, UK) in INTERDISCIPLINARY SCI. REV., Sept., 96, 219-20.
"Clearly there are issues located in specific technologies which facilitate or retard their adoption but which are socially determined. These will include informed choice. levels of technological know how. and ability to manage a production system. Getting from here to there does not proceed in a simple linear fashion but depends on economic, political, and social factors in the adopting society, including some situationally specific elements which concern both the technology itself and the adopting society .'

1863. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS, Summer, 96, 38.
"No innovation spreads instantaneously. Instead. a typical S-shaped temporal pattern seems to be the rule. This basic pattern appears invariant, although the regularity and timing of diffusion processes vary greatly."

1864. Jonathan Eaton (Prof., Boston U.) in THE EASTERN ECONOMIC JRNL., Fall, 96, 401-2.
"The extent of international technology diffusion among developed countries is substantial, but not complete; an invention is more likely to be used at home than abroad. In particular, every country makes its largest contribution to growth at home. These results depict a world in which countries are highly dependent on each other's research efforts but in which domestic research is still capable of giving one country a productivity edge over another."

1865. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS, Summer, 96.38.
"Nevertheless, appropriate incentives and policies may nurture the development of more benign technologies and their diffusion. and many changes can be implemented over a time frame of two to three decades. However, sectors and areas will also remain in which changes will occur much more slowly. particularly those related to the long-lived structures of' our built environment: for example, infrastructures for transport and energy) as well as housing stock. Here rates of change and diffusion constants ranging from several decades to a century are typical and will be costly to accelerate."

1866. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS, Summer, 96. 38.
"Diffusion is a spatial as well as temporal phenomenon. Originating from innovation centers, a particular idea, practice. or artifact spreads out to its hinterland by means of a hierarchy of subinnovation centers and into the periphery, defined spatially, functionally, or socially."

1867. Arnulf Grubler (Rsrch Scholar on the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy Project), DAEDALUS, Summer. 96. 38.
"Although diffusion is essentially a process of imitation and homogenization, it clusters and lumps. The densities of application remain discontinuous in time and heterogeneous in space among the population of potential adopters and across different social strata. In fact, overall development trajectories appear necessarily punctuated by crises that emerge in transitional periods. A such, diffusion and its discontinuities may be among the inherent features of the evolutionary process that governs social behavior."

1868. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95,429-30.
"The diffusion of innovations generally causes wider socioeconomic gaps within an audience. This increased inequality occurs because: 1. Innovators and early adopters have favorable attitudes toward new ideas and are more likely to search actively for innovations. They also possess the available resources to adopt higher cost-innovations, while later adopters do not."

1869. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 333.
"Generalization 11-4 states: The consequences of the diffusion of innovations usually widen the socioeconomic gap between the earlier and later adopting categories in a system."

1870. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 442.
"A system's social structure partly determines the equality versus the inequality of an innovation's consequences. When a system's structure is already very unequal, the consequences of an innovation (especially if it is a relatively high-cost innovation) will lead to even greater inequality in the form of wider socioeconomic gaps."

1871. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95,441-2.
"The consequences of the diffusion of innovations usually widen the socioeconomic gap between the earlier- and later-adopting categories in a system. Further, the consequences of the diffusion of innovations usually widen the socioeconomic gap between the audience segments previously high and low in socioeconomic status."

1872. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 125.
"When the issue of equality has been investigated, we often find that the diffusion of innovations widens the socioeconomic gap between the higher and the lower status segments of a system. This tendency for the diffusion of innovations to increase socioeconomic inequality can occur in any system, but it has especially been noted in Third World nations. We therefore begin our discussion of equality issues with an examination of diffusion research in Latin America. Africa, and Asia."

1873. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 129.
"These two studies suggest that if communication strategies are used effectively in narrowing the socioeconomic benefits gap, then the socioeconomic structure may no longer be a major barrier to the diffusion of innovations for the most disadvantaged segment of the population."

1874. Everett Rogers (Prof, Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 128-9.
"For example, more progressive farmers are eager for new ideas, and have the economic means to adopt; they can also more easily obtain credit if they need it. Because they have larger farms, the direct effect of their adoption on total agricultural production is also greater. Rural development workers follow this progressive client strategy because they cannot reach all of their clients, so they concentrate on their most responsive clients, with whom they are most homophilous. The result is a widening of the socioeconomic benefits gap among the change agent's client audience."

1875. Everett Rogers (Prof. Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 128.
"The social structure in Third World nations is a powerful determinant of individuals' access to technological innovations. Development agencies tend to provide assistance especially to their innovative, wealthy, educated, and information-seeking clients. Following this progressive (or "easy to convince") diffusion strategy leads to a lower degree of equality."

1876. Robin Broad (Prof.. Sch., Int'l. Serv.. Am.U.) in THIRD WORLD QRTLY., Mar.. 96, 14.
"One final component of the South-to-North resource flow that is difficult to measure, but that will be a crucial determinant of future development problems and possibilities. is the export of non-renewable Southern natural resources to the North in the form of forest products, minerals and marine resources. At the economic core of most colonial relationships was the exploitation of silver, gold, timber, fish and other raw products for Northern use, and many of these patterns continue to the present."

1877. Robin Broad (Prof., Sch., Int'l. Serv., Am.U.) in THIRD WORLD QRTLY., Mar., 96, 113.
"Expanding the focus from Africa, if one looks specifically at exporters of non-oil primary products, the terms of trade record remains dismal. From 1974-80, the terms of trade deteriorated by 5.7% a year; from 1981-86, terms of trade for these non-fuel primary product exporters declined by 3% a year; from 1987-93, the decrease was 1.8% a year. Yet. in its 1994 Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank advocated primary commodities as a foundation for economic development--using studies of the USA and Australia to bolster such assertions." [Emphasis in original]

1878. Task Force Report, The President's Council on Sustainable Devel., ENERGY & TRANSPORTATION, 96, 19.
"Government can act as a catalyst and consensus builder by supporting policies that increase technological innovation, deployment. and rapid turnover of capital stock. These policies could also have global impact if developing countries such as China and India adopt the advanced technologies. Although this scenario may represent a move toward sustainability, sustainability is not assured within a 30-year time horizon. In particular, accelerating technological and structural change could create a more polarized income distribution if technology 'elites' appropriate the resulting economic gains. Ensuring social equity may constitute the greatest challenge for sustainability under a technology-dominated scenario."

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1879. Michael Renner (Staff, World Watch lnst.) in STATE OF THE WORLD 1997, 97, 118.
"Disputes are often sharpened or triggered by glaring social and economic disparities--explosive conditions that are exacerbated by the growing pressures of population growth, resource depletion, and environmental degradation."

1880. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS. 95, 100.
"This lack of recognition of the pro-innovation bias makes it especially troublesome and potentially dangerous in an intellectual sense. The bias leads diffusion researchers to ignore the study of ignorance about innovations, to underemphasize the rejection or discontinuance of innovations, to overlook re-invention, and to fail to study antidiffusion programs designed to prevent the diffusion of 'bad' innovations (like crack cocaine or cigarettes, for example). The net result of the pro-innovation bias in diffusion research is a failure to learn certain very important aspects of diffusion; what we do know about diffusion is unnecessarily limited." [Emphasis in original]

1881. Everett Rogers (Prof, Comm. Studies. U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVAT1ONS, 95. 304.
"Much diffusion research is funded by change agencies: They have a pro-innovation bias (understandably so, since their purpose is to promote innovations) and this viewpoint has often been accepted by many of the diffusion researchers whose work they sponsor, whom they call upon for consultation about their diffusion problems. and whose students they hire as employees."

1882. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS. 95, 105.
"One of the important ways in which the pro-innovation bias creeps into many diffusion researches is through the selection of the innovations that are studied. This aspect of the pro-innovation bias may be especially dangerous because it is implicit. latent, and largely unintentional."

1883. Everett Rogers (Prof:, Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS. 95, 105.
"Because of the pro-innovation bias. we know much more( I ) about the diffusion of rapidly spreading innovations than about the diffusion of slowly diffusing innovations, (2) about adoption than about rejection, and (3) about continued use than about discontinuance. The pro-innovation bias in diffusion research is understandable from the viewpoint of financial, Iogistical, methodological, and policy considerations. The problem is that we know too much about innovation successes. and not enough about innovation failures.'

1884. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM). DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS. 95, 111-2.
"In the past. we diffusion researchers placed on overreliance upon models of diffusion that are too rationalistic. The unfortunate consequence is that we often assumed that all adopters perceive an innovation in a positive light. as we ourselves may perceive it. We need to question this assumption of the innovation's advantage forr adopters. and to gather data about how individuals perceive the innovation, much as David Belasco did in his study of the rejection of piped water in Egypt."

1885. Everett Rogers (Prof., Comm. Studies, U. NM), DIFFUSION OF INOVATIONS, 95, 104-5.
"'Successful' diffusion leaves a rate of adoption that can be retrospectively investigated by diffusion researchers, while an unsuccessful diffusion effort does not leave visible traces that can be very easily reconstructed. A rejected and/or a discontinued innovation is not so easily identified and investigated by a researcher through interrogating the rejectors and/or discontinuers. For somewhat similar reasons, the variety of forms taken by the re-invention of an innovation makes it difficult to study. posing methodological problems of classifying just what ' adoption' means. The conventional methodologies used by diffusion researchers lead to a focus on investigating successful diffusion. Thus. a pro-innovation bias can into diffusion research."
1886.  
THE ADVOCATE, Feb. 10, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97). 
"Clinton's skies could darken in the coming year or so, as Nixon's did, depending on what evolves from the inquiries of Starr and Thompson, and on how well Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., acquits himself as the new Republican leader of the U.S. Senate. During a long congressional inquiry into Whitewater, Clinton had the great advantage of being pursued by Sen. AI D'Amato of New York, a man not widely admired even by his Republican colleagues. Clinton also farad well in comparison to former Majority Leader Bob Dole in the Senate and Gingrich in the House, but now Dole is out of politics, and Gingrich probably will lower his profile for the immediate future. Starr is no AI D'Amato. Neither is Thompson. And Lott certainly is no Newt Gingrich. Clinton begins his second term with poll numbers reflecting his apparent political strength, but clouds are gathering on his horizon."

1887. THE ADVOCATE, Feb. 10, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Sunny poll numbers give Clinton an umbrella going into a year that could bring some stormy weather. Clinton could get a lot of grief this year from Kenneth Starr's Whitewater investigation, a coming probe into campaign activities to be headed by Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., and the Supreme Court, which is to consider whether Paula Jones' case should wait until Clinton is out of office.'

1888. Tom Rhodes (Staff), THE TIMES, Mar. 12, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97 ).
"A RARE and potentially damaging rift emerged within the Administration yesterday after President Clinton clashed publicly with the FBI over Chinese involvement in domestic American politics. Bringing further embarrassment to the White House, the discord came as the current fundraising controversy brought the biggest dent to the President's popularity in almost two years, his approval ratings dipping by five points to 55 per cent in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll." [Emphasis in original]

1889. Skip Thurman (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 10, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97 ).
"The day-to-day revelations of possible past campaign fund-raising irregularities at the White Hose are impairing President Clinton's ability to communicate through the press--and may threaten some of his agenda on Capitol Hill. Though the story seems to be generating little interest or concern outside the beltway---one local talk-radio host here says callers are crying 'enough already'--the obsession with the scandal in Washington is sapping some of the momentum Mr. Clinton built up after the inauguration and State of the Union address. 'There are some legitimate questions here, but there is a feeding frenzy,' says Colorado Gov. Roy Romer, recently named co-chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC).'

1890. Skip Thurman (Stall'), CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 10, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Despite all the press coverage of campaign-finance practices, Clinton's approval ratings remain in the 60 percent range--far higher than his first-term rating. He has also prevailed on some key issues with Congress, such as turning back the move for a balanced budget amendment. But as the scrutiny continues, Clinton may lose traction on other issues, such as the current budget negotiations."

1891. John WagIcy (Staff), THE HILL, Mar. 12, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"American Journalism Review 'I suspect Clinton will survive, but with this caveat: Who knows what else is out there? But he will survive as a severely weakened president. So far the polls suggest that the fundraising scandal hasn't hurt his popularity. But the drumbeat shows no sign of stopping and eventually will take its toll. It also will preoccupy the White House and drown out Clinton's efforts to set the nation's agenda. Already it has emboldened Republicans to slow down collaboration on things like the budget."'

1892.  Jim Mann (Staff), LA TIMES, Mar. 12, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97). 
"Over the next year or two, Clinton faces some foreign-policy issues that could help determine America's relations with the world for the next decade or more: Should China be admitted to the World Trade Organization? Should the North American Free Trade Agreement be expanded to other countries? Such questions ought to be argued out. The danger is that new initiatives will be shelved (or, alternatively, slipped through without much public scrutiny) because Washington is transfixed in its love for the entertainment and the gamesmanship of a good scandal."

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1893. ETHANOL REPORT (Renewable Fuels Assn.), Dec. 12, 96, 1.
"A post-election survey on the environment and energy found that voters overwhelmingly support federal programs to promote the increased production and use of renewable energy generally, and the ethanol tax incentive, specifically. According to the poll released by the Sustainable Energy Coalition, American voters strongly favor federal research funding and tax incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency over fossil fuels and nuclear power."

1894. GREENWIRE, Dec. 12, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1.
"A new poll shows voters favor federal programs to promote renewable energy and energy-efficiency, as well as a binding international agreement to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. The poll, released yesterday by the Sustainable Energy Coalition, found 57% would support a requirement in federal electric-utility restructuring legislation that utilities provide a certain percentage of energy from renewable sources, even if it means higher utility bills."

1895. Donald Airken (Sr. Analyst, Union Concerned Sci.) in SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY (Nat'l. Energy Policy Plan), July, 95, 142.
"Polls show that on the average 85 percent of the public wants more vigorous pursuit of renewables."

1896. Frank Kreith (Consulting Engineer)et al. in ENERGY EFFICIENCY, 97, 10.
"According to a survey conducted in 1994, the American public prefers and is also willing to pay for the implementation of energy efficiency, conservation, and renewable energy systems. Public concern about the environment has increased during the past decade and, according to Farhar, 'the public prefers policies supportive of energy efficiency and the use of renewables over other energy options and policies that foster environmental protection and improvement... ~"'

1897. Paul Gipe (Wind Energy Consultant) in WIND ENERGY COMES OF AGE, 95,272.
"Environmentalists have never given wind, or any other technology, an unqualified endorsement. Yet eight years after the first wind plants were built in California, support for wind energy among public-interest groups, including environmentalists, remained strong. In a survey by the League of Women Voters, 95% of the public-interest leaders polled supported expanding wind energy, whereas only 56% of those in the energy industry felt similarly. Wind's support ranked above all but solar heating (96%), conservation (96%), and energy efficiency (98%) among the public-interest groups surveyed."

1898. Anna Stanford (Staff, Friends of Earth, UK) in SUN WORLD, June, 95, 7.
"Wind power is a popular option for our future energy policy. It has been constantly found in public opinion polling that not only is there broad support for wind power amongst the general population but that most people living in areas with existing wind turbines support their development."

1899. Daniel M. Berman & John T. O'Connor (Visiting Scholar, Sch. of Pub., U. CA-Davis, & Pres., Greenworks, Inc.) in WHO OWNS THE SUN?, 96, 99.
"According to a 1988 Gallup poll, a majority of Americans believe that it is more important to use energy efficiently than to build new sources of power supply, and over half prefer the development of solar energy supplies above all others. (Only 12 percent thought nuclear energy should be developed first.)"

1900.  ETHANOL REPORT (Renewable Fuels Assn.), Dec. 12, 96, 1. 
"As part of the Sustainable Energy Coalition post-election survey, voters were asked whether the government should continue the federal tax exemption for ethanol-blended gasoline, and 7 out of 10 (71%) voters responded that they support continuing the ethanol tax incentive. Only 19.8% of those surveyed oppose the exemption. Party affiliation does not appear to have any impact on the level of support. with 70.1% of Republicans, 72.8% of Democrats, 68% of Independents, and 72.7% of Reform Party members supporting the exemption. 'Support for the ethanol tax incentive is both strong and bi-partisan,' said Vaughn. 'Voters realize that this is a program which creates jobs and stimulates investment here at home, while reducing our nation's trade deficit and improving the economy."' [Emphasis in original]

1901. Paul Ehrlich (Prof., Bio., Stanford U.), THE HUMANIST, Nov. 21, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), 21.
"When polled, 68 percent of Americans today say they are willing to pay good money for environmental quality. But support for environmental quality is sometimes said to be superficial; while almost everyone is in favor of a sound environment--clean air, clean water, toxic site cleanups, national parks, and so on--many don't feel that environmental deterioration, especially on a regional or global level, is a crucial issue in their own lives. In part this is testimony to the success of environmental protection in the United States. But it is also the case that most people lack an appreciation of the deeper but generally less visible. slowly developing global problems. Thus they don't perceive population growth, global warming, the loss of biodiversity, depletion of groundwater, or exposure to chemicals in plastics and pesticides as a personal threat at the same level as crime in their neighborhood, loss of a job, or a substantial rise in taxes."

1902. Paul Ehrlich (Prof., Bio., Stanford U.), THE HUMANIST, Nov. 21. 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/I/97), 21.
"Fortunately, despite all the efforts of the brownlash to discourage it, environmental concern in the United States is widespread."

1903. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci.. U. FL), ENV1R. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 34-5.
"Numerous studies suggest that substantial majorities in almost all major socioeconomic groups support the environment movement and governmental programs to protect the environment--and have supported them since the onset of Environmental Era I."

1904. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof.. Pol. Sci.. U. FL). ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95. 340.
"In the aftermath of the second Earth Day, veteran public opinion analyst William Schneider was convinced that environmentalism had become an issue beyond debate. Noting a recent Gallup Poll disclosing that 76 percent of Americans called themselves 'an environmentalist' Schneider concluded that 'everybody is an environmentalist these days.' Most public opinion analysts would agree that environmentalism has become pan of 'the American consensus,' an idea deeply fixed in the firmament of values that define America's basic political belief."

1905. Richard Matthew (Asst. Prof, Envir. Politics & lnt'l. Relations Georgetown U.). ISSUES IN SCI. & TECHNOLOGY, Fall, 96, 40.
"One thing is certain: Environmental issues do belong 'in the mainstream of American foreign policy.' Scientists have amply demonstrated that environmental change is transnational, related to human activities, and threatening to human welfare. Christopher is correct in stating that: 'The environment has a profound impact on our national interests in two ways: First, environmental Forces transcend borders and oceans to threaten directly the health, prosperity and jobs of American citizens. Second, addressing natural resource issues is frequently critical to achieving political and economic stability, and to pursuing our strategic goals around the world."'

1906. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95,342.
"It is worth emphasizing that public opinion matters enormously for the political future of environmentalism. Public opinion has been the great equalizer in the political battle between environmentalists and their opposition. It is the public opinion polls as much as the organized environmentalist lobbying that command the respect of public officials when they calculate the political importance of environmentalism in the unceasing group competition for access and influence in the political process."

1907. Walter Rosenbaum (Prof., Pol. Sci., U. FL), ENVIR. POLITICS & POLICY, 95, 34.
"The strength of public support for environmental protection in the early 1990s, as measured by public opinion polls, appears vigorous and widespread. In mid-1991, for example, a Gallup Poll, repeating a question often posed since 1970, asked a representative sample of the American public whether environmental protection 'should be given priority even at the risk of curbing economic growth.' Approximately 71 percent of the respondents agreed with this assertion while 29 percent disagreed or expressed no opinion. In 1984, 61 percent agreed that environmental protection should be given priority even at the risk of economic growth and 39 percent disagreed or expressed no opinion."

158

1908. Gary Bryner (Prof., Pol. Sci., Brigham Young U.), BLUE SKIES GREEN POLITICS, 95, 1.
"Public opinion polls and other measures of public sentiment show strong support for more aggressive laws and regulations that attempt to solve pollution problems and protect natural resources. According to recent polls, more than 70 percent of Americans believe that 'protecting the environment is so important that requirements and standards cannot be too high, and continuing environmental improvement must be made regardless of cost." [Emphasis in original]

1909. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95, 370.
"Because of the success of political environmentalism, Americans and Europeans today live in a world where effective environmental influence is assured at nearly every level of government and business. This is a wonderful development for society. History will admire the environmentalists of our era for how much they accomplished and how fast."

1910. Greg Easterbrook (Contrib. Ed., Atlantic Monthly), A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 95,370.
"By 1990 environmentalism had grown into one of the leading lobby interests of North America and Western Europe, in national as well as local governments, and into perhaps the most effective media-relations entity ever. Today environmental leaders enjoy the sort of access to Congress and state legislatures--and, with Bill Clinton and AI Gore. to the White House----of which some business leaders dream. Enviros also now have the ability to deliver votes, through the scorecards they issue on politicians. Green political ratings are influential in New England. the Pacific Coast states. Minnesota, and elsewhere."

1911.  ETHANOL REPORT (Renewable Fuels Assn.), Nov. 21, 96. 1. 
"One of the obvious messages coming from the election is that environmental policy has become a potent issue in electoral politics today. Of the 19 Republican incumbents defeated, 16 were on an environmental hit list. Environmental groups were successful in defeating about 60% of the members that were targeted."

1912. David Ervin (Dir.. Policies Program, Wallace Inst. for Alternative Ag.) in FED. NEWS SERVICE. Mar. 18, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/5/97). I.
"Issues such as improved water quality. food safety. protection of biological diversity, and preservation of rural farm landscapes regularly enter local, state and federal policy discussions about agriculture. Surveys show repeatedly that a clear majority of the public supports existing or higher environmental performance by the industry. Results of the 1996 elections confirmed that the vast majority of the public does not want to rollback environmental standards and improvements."

1913. GREENWIRE. Dec. 12, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), I.
"Half of all respondents said they favor a legally binding accord to limit greenhouse gas emissions (Sustainable Energy Coalition release, 12/11). The poll of 1,200 voters, conducted by GOP firm Research/Strategy/Management. Inc. from 11/9-14. had a margin of error of +/-2.9%."

1914. Andrew Ross, (Prof, Nat'l. Security Affairs. U.S. Naval War Col.) et al.. 1NT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 46.
"The Clinton administration discovered that although international institutions are weak. the forces of U.S. domestic politics are not particularly supportive of strengthening them. The rhetoric of U.S. 'leadership' that both the Democrats and the Republicans have adopted in their foreign policy statements is as much an expression of what the U.S. public seems to be against in international affairs as what it is for. It is against giving up much U.S. autonomy. As several observers have noted. the freshmen Republicans elected in 1994 are not so much isolationist as 'unilateralist."'

1915. Elaine Hiruo (Staff in NUCLEONICS WEEK. Feb. 13, 97 (Online. Nexis. 3/4/97), 1.
"'Since when has the taxpayer become the deep pockets for a mature industry's research program?' Denman argued. 'Voters want nuclear energy to be the number one priority for cuts in the U.S. energy budget. according to poll after poll."

1916. Dave Airozo (Staff) in NUELEONICS WEEK, Nov. 21, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97), 1.
"The industry's inability to get those simple messages across to the American public---or even interest the public in nuclear power--appeared to be what most frustrated nuclear power's supporters at the ANS sessions. The pubic apathy is widespread. According to Ann Bisconti, former NEI polmeister, only about 5% of the public strongly supports nuclear power. An equal number strongly oppose it. The middle 90% have no strong feelings either way."

1917. William Martin (Fmr. Dep. Sec. of Energy) in CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 3{, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/3/97). 19.
"Throughout the world calls are heard for a massive shift to renewable sources of energy like solar, wind, and nuclear power. The former options are relatively noncontroversial, but nuclear power, the most advanced renewable source of power, remains a lightning rod for many, especially in the US."

1918.  Linda Pifer, PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCI., Apt., 96, 135. 
"Over the last twenty years the use of nuclear power has been one of the more controversial scientific topics on the public policy agenda in the United States. At the same time that the American public has expressed consistent, positive support for science and technology in general. it has gone through three different stages in attitudes toward nuclear power. In the early 1970s the American public expressed general enthusiasm for nuclear power. More ambivalence was expressed about nuclear power immediately after the Three Mile Island incident in 1979. Finally, beginning in the early 1980s, a majority of the public became opposed to building more nuclear power plants. Opposition to nuclear power has been particularly strong among young adults."

1919. Bill Schneider (Reporter) et al., CNN, Feb. 15, 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97 ).
"Why is the White House still relying on polls now that the election is over? Because public support is the president's principal source of power--especially when the other party controls Congress. Ira president's approval ratings are high, as Clinton's are right now, he has clout. But if his approval ratings drop. he loses clout. Even members of his own party will abandon him as Republicans did George Bush and as Democrats did Bill Clinton in 1994."

1920. Alison Mitchell (Staff), NY TIMES, Feb. 12, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97 ).
"For this effort to work, some officials argue, the President must be perceived as riding a wave of public support. 'Clinton has come to believe that if he keeps his approval ratings up and sells his message as he did during the campaign, there will be greater acceptability for his program.' said one aide to the President. 'The idea is that you have to sell it as if in a campaign."'

1921. Brian McGregory (Staff), BOSTON GLOBE, Jan. 2, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"At stake in the relationship is nothing short of the president's national popularity, according to analysts. Good relations with the news media can ultimately mean higher public opinion ratings, which can provide Clinton more sway in pushing his agenda in Congress and greater fortitude fending off accusations ranging from Whitewater to Asian money laundering."

1922. Brian McGregory (Staff), BOSTON GLOBE, Jan. 2, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"'No matter what the president might be accused of, if he is capable of turning to an aide and being told his popularity is high, he will feel he can take on any lawyer and Newt Gingrich and win because the people are behind him,' said Marvin Kalb, of the Shorenstein Center on Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University 'And the press provides that first opening to applied power."'

1923. Philip Barnes (Staff), NATIONAL JOURNAL, Dec. 7, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/20/97).
"Reading the mixed results of November's election, Clinton's advisers say that the voters hay: sent a message that they want Democrats and Republicans in Washington to work together.  That would benefit the President.  He would be able to take credit for what passes and there's nothing like a string of legislative successes to bolster the standing of a President.  The best way for Clinton to build momentum from his election victory would be to achieve 'some bipartisan agreements with Congress (and) have an accomplishment every quarter,' Republican pollster Frederick T. Steeper said in an interview."

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1924. Godfrey Sperling (Op-Ed Column), CHRI. SCI. MON., Mar. 11, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"For a long time now the president has scored low when voters were asked if they 'trust' Clinton. But a lot of these same people helped the president get reelected and still say his performance suits them just fine. 1 think that many voters who back Clinton may not like his personal ethics but feel that he is an advocate of their views. They are willing to forget or forgive Clinton's excesses because he has convinced them that he's working hard for them on such issues as education and the environment."

1925. KANSAS CITY STAR, Nov. 6, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"But with Congress under Republican control, the outlook for Clinton's second term is cloudy. There probably are battles ahead with the Republican majority. White House spokesman Mike McCurry said that Clinton will make more use of the 'bully pulpit' in much the way he did during the re-election drive. 'He faults himself for the first two years of his presidency for not recognizing the importance of keeping that attachment to the American people,' McCurry said. 'One thing that will be different is he will continue to go to the American people to drive the argument for his programs."'

1926. Gretchen Cook (Staff, AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE. Feb. 4. 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"This year low ratings--a CNN-USA Today poll Tuesday gave Clinton a 60-percent positive rating against 36 for Congress--have the Republicans singing a different tune. 'We believe there is enough common ground to find reasonable solutions to these problems.' said a joint letter from House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Senate Republican leader Trent Lott on the budget differences. And Clinton hopes to take advantage of this 'magic' moment."

1927. David Dubuisson (Staff). NEWS & RECORD. Feb. 9. 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97).
"That's not to say there are not opportunities for presidential leadership. Welfare reform has barely begun: Social Security and Medicare need modification: a number of environmental problems need solving. immigration needs attention--the list goes on. But for a president to tackle something large and substantive he needs the people behind him: and electorate motivated by a political campaign. 'Today. his only clear mandate is not to rock the boat."

1928. Morton Kondracke (Staff), SACRAMENTO BEE, Feb. 18, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"Republicans can't--and won't--ignore the ethical shadow hanging over Clinton that may yet make his second term a nightmare. But consider how differently the country judges its two major ethically challenged public figures. Clinton is viewed favorably by 61 percent of adults. according to the Los Angeles Times poll, while only 22 percent approve of House Speaker Newt Gingrich's, R-Ga.. performance. Why'? Mainly it's because Clinton has an agenda that the public supports."

1929. Wayne Woodlief (Staff), BOSTON HERALD, Jan. 21.97 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97).
"President Clinton's second inaugural yesterday symbolized a time of second chances--for the re-elected president, for some of the big issues on which he said Americans demand action, and even for a weakened House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Blessed with rising public approval ratings and the photogenic presence he demonstrated again in yesterday's ceremonies. Clinton has a second chance to rise above the Whitewater-lndogate clouds that haunt him. to correct some of the hubristic errors of his first term and just maybe, make some solid achievements even as he presides over a divided government."

1930.  Richard Berke, NY TIMES, Nov. 6, 96 (Online. Nexis, 3/20/97). 
"The 50-year-old Mr. Clinton offered himself as a vigorous leader for a new century, but the success of his campaign turned largely on his ability to seize a litany of Republican issues as his own--welfare, crime and balancing the budget."

1931.  AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, Mar. 16. 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97). 
Russia is adamantly opposed to extending membership to former Soviet Bloc countries and expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization all the way to its doorstep.  But Clinton has made NATO expansion a top priority and has called for the first members to be admitted by 1999.  NATO leaders will convene in Madrid in July to discuss which countries will be first in line for membership."

1932. Robert lburms (Staff), AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Clinton considers NATO expansion his top foreign policy priority--linked to other festering security issues such as overcoming the Russian parliament's reluctance to ratify the START II nuclear weapons treaty."

1933. Michael Dobbs (Staff), WASH. POST, Mar. 13, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/I 0/97).
"Forcing the pace on the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Clinton administration is planning on all-out selling effort to convince Congress and the American people of the wisdom of extending formal security guarantees to former Soviet bloc countries."

1934. Larry Caldwell (Staff), TIMES UNION, Feb. 2, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97 ).
"President Clinton and his former secretary of state, Warren Christopher, have led the nation toward a radical new foreign policy. They have committed the nation to the expansion of NATO, pushing U.S. nuclear guarantees right up to the Russian border."

1935. James Rosen (Bee Wash. Bureau), FRESNO BEE, Mar. 16, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Clinton wants NATO to grow from 16 to 19 nations, and he wants the newcomers--most likely Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic--to be invited into the fold in July when the alliance gathers in Madrid, Spain, and to become full members within two years."

1936. BBC SUMMARY OF WORLD BROADCASTS, Mar. 15, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The continuation of the process of NATO expansion eastwards and future talks between NATO and Russia. as well as providing guarantees that the United States is correctly rendering economic assistance to the Russian Federation, Ukraine, the Transcaucasian states and the countries of Central Asia, these are the main priorities of American foreign policy for the coming six months, Nicholas Burns said."

1937. Marc Rogers (Staff), JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY, Feb. 26, 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97).
"Despite general NATO support for enlargement. no date for this expansion was agreed until last year's US Presidential election campaign. President Clinton said in a Detroit speech that the enlargement would coincide with a 50th anniversary NATO summit in Washington in 1999."

1938. Jon Landy (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON.. Feb. 21, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"While polls show many Americans are ambivalent on the issue, NATO enlargement is backed by significant numbers. including voters of Eastern European descent in key states. Finally, the opposition is not well organized and its main spokesman, former Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia. has retired. But analysts say many key lawmakers still harbor reservations about the initiative that, left unanswered, could swing enough of them against the idea. 'There are still distinct scenarios by which this could fail,' says Rosner."

1939. Jon Landy (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., Feb. 21, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97 ).
"Even as Secretary of State Madeleine AIbright tries to ease Russian objections to the expansion of NATO, the Clinton administration faces lingering concerns on Capitol Hill over the plan to admit former Soviet-bloc states to the trans-Atlantic military alliance. Admissions of new NATO Members, the first of which will be named at a summit in Madrid this July. requires ratification by two-thirds of the Senate. While support in Congress has been strong, White House officials concede they still owe answers to critical questions before many lawmakers commit to pushing NATO to Russia's doorstep. 'We do not regard this as a cakewalk,' says a senior administration official who requested anonymity. 'We have to answer legitimate questions about Russia, about the cost, and about America's role. "'

1940. Cragg Hines (Staff, HOUSTON CHRON., Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Clinton, despite the fund-raising controversy and budget disputes with a Republican-majority Congress, will have little on the line in Helsinki. Although he must keep in mind that NATO expansion needs a two-thirds vote in the Senate, where questions about the eastward growth of the most successful military alliance of the age have already risen."

160

1941. Mike Shuster (Staff), NPR MORNING EDITION, Mar. 10, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"SHUSTER: This debate has not yet reached Congress, where the Senate will have to ratify any expansion, and the Congress as a whole will have to authorize the billions of dollars it will cost. At this point, them appears to be bipartisan support for expansion. But administration officials concede that could shift. Last week, Congressman David Obey gave a hint of that when he challenged Secretary of State Albright a committee hearing. The Wisconsin Democrat told her Americans won't like it when they wake up one day to find the U.S. has committed itself to go to war to protect more nations. And Obey worried about the future repercussions on Russia itself."

1942. ROLL CALL, Feb. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Between Clinton and Helms, the pro-expansion coalition includes former Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan), all living former Secretaries of State, the Republican party as represented by its 1996 platform, and Senate foreign policy experts Carl Levin (D-Mich) and Richard Lugar (R-lnd). But another odd coalition of liberals and conservatives, doves and hawks--including the House Democratic leadership, arch-isolationist Pat Buchanan, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) and Joe Biden (D-Del), and former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga), plus an assortment of defense intellectuals--has formed to oppose expansion."

1943. Joseph Fitchett (Staff), INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE. Jan. 20. 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"Holdouts in the Senate could prevent the White House from getting the votes Q 67 out of 100 Q needed to ratify enlargement. Such an outcome. noted Charles Kupchan, a National Security Council official in the first Clinton administration, would send a signal to Europe that a president could not count on congressional approval for military intervention in Europe."

1944. Jon Landy (Staff, CHR. SCI. MON., Feb. 21.97 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97 ).
"NATO enlargement is shaping up as the most sweeping US foreign policy initiative of the post-cold-war era. Analysts say the administration's failure to win Senate approval would kill the initiative. threaten NATO cohesion, humiliate the US, and shatter international confidence in Washington's commitments to preserving stability in Europe and other critical regions of the globe."

1945. Mike Shuster(Staff), NPR MORNING EDITION~ Mar. 10. 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97).
"SHUSTER: Despite the critics though, the expansion of NATO remains on track. Opponents are hoping their arguments will stimulate debate in the Senate which ultimately will bare to ratify the decision to offer NATO membership to any nation outside the alliance's current 16 members."

1946. ROLL CALL, Feb. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Opposition is forming among both liberals and conservatives. and one expert on Congress and foreign policy. Jeremy Rosner of the Carnegie Endowment, says the Clinton Administration needs to make an all-out effort to firm up congressional support. 'There's an odd coalition in favor of expansion. including President Clinton and (Sen.) Jesse Helms (R-NC).' Rosner said at a briefing last week 'there are a lot of scenarios by which it could fall apart. Ratification is not inevitable."'

1947. Michael Dobbs (Wash. Post Service). INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Mar. 14, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Forcing the pace on the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Clinton administration is planning an all-out effort to convince Congress and the American people of the wisdom of extending formal security guarantees to former Soviet bloc countries. While the issue has been hotly debated within the government and the foreign policy community, it has attracted little attention elsewhere in the country. But both supporters and opponents of enlargement believe that will change in the coming months, as Western governments reach agreement on a list of candidates to be included in the U.S.-led alliance by 1999."

1948. Michael Dobbs (Wash. Post Service), 1NT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE. Mar. 14, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Supporters and opponents agree that the debate will probably become more evenly balanced as the political, military and financial costs of expansion become more apparent. There is a big difference between largely declaratory resolutions on expanding democracy in the former Soviet bloc and a vote on extending the U.S. security umbrella to a new part of the world."

1949. Marc Rogers (Staff), JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY, Feb. 26, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"While reminiscent of the so-called 'Euromissile' issue of nearly two decades ago, the enlargement decision has so far stimulated debate in the USA, Russia, and central and eastern Europe. However, relatively little debate has surfaced in western Europe because as one NATO official said, there are not only different political cultures in Europe and the USA, but there may also be a feeling that this is an issue primarily US-driven and which will ultimately be decided in the USA."

1950. Pavel Felgenhaver (Ed., Defense & Nat'l. Security Affairs), MOSCOW TIMES, Sept. 12, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"It is essential for Russia that Central Europe be maintained as an area of low military activity--a barrier that will prevent war in the future, and not a springboard for a coming confrontation. So Russia insists it should be granted the legal right to stop possible threatening military moves by NATO near its borders. But if the West continues to insist Russia has no power of veto in NATO plans and operations, then any serious preparations to upgrade Poland's Iogistical infrastructure for a substantial NATO deployment would be considered in Moscow as direct preparation for war. As a measure of last resort, Russia can deploy thousands of tactical nuclear weapons and delivery systems to sensitive border areas, such as the Kaliningrad enclave, to deter an expanded NATO. Moscow will then have an effective 'veto power' using old Cold War tactics. But Russian deterrence of a hostile West can only be nuclear since its conventional forces are weak. So the possibility of semi-accidental nuclear war in Europe could be even higher than during the Cold War."

1951.  Richard Beeston (Staff), THE TIMES (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97). 
"More disturbingly, it recommends that if the Baltic republics join Nato, Russia should instantly move forces into Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia. Any attempt to obstruct the Russian action by Nato would be regarded as a prelude to nuclear war."

1952.  AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97). 
"NATO's plan to expand eastwards in order to encourage stability in Europe could threaten Denmark's security, a report by the country's secret service states. a newspaper reported Monday. The daily conservative Jyllands-Posten quoted the 153-page internal report as saying that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's plan to expand into eastern Europe could prompt Russia to station troops and tactical nuclear weapons on the enclave of Kaliningrad, located less than 300 kilometers (180 miles) from the Danish Island of Bornholm, on the Baltic Sea. The report quoted experts as saying that the only part of the Russian army still functioning was nuclear defense which in a crisis situation could mean a 'high risk of escalation with the possibility of tactical and strategic weapons being used."'

1953.AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97). 
"NATO has already announced that it intends to proceed with its enlargement plans, while Moscow remains steadfastly opposed to the alliance pushing up against its borders. Successive rounds of talks aimed at getting round the problem through some form of agreement formalizing relations between the two former adversaries have yet to produce concrete results. And in Copenhagen on Monday, a Danish secret services report hinted at the possibility of renewed nuclear stand-off should NATO press on with its eastward drive. The report highlighted security concerns which could affect Denmark if a hostile Moscow once again flaunts its tactical nuclear weapons in western Russia."

1954. Donald Ruggie (Prof., Pol. Sci., Columbia), WASH QRTLY, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Three main arguments have been advanced in favor of expansion. The first contends that it will deter any residual or future threats of Russian aggression in Central and Eastern Europe, and reassure the countries of that region that they will be defended from it. Skeptics counter that this move has all the makings of a self-fulfilling prophecy, potentially creating the very condition it is intended to hedge against."

1955.  Richard Beeston (Staff), THE TIMES (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97). 
"The Russian military has reportedly drawn up a contingency plan to create a defensive alliance against Nato and to redeploy its forces, including nuclear weapons, along its western border in the event of the organization's eastward expansion. In the first concrete sign that a new Cold War fault line could be established through the heart of Eastern Europe, reports in Moscow said that military chiefs were working on a counter-move to NATO's planned enlargement into states that were formerly in the Warsaw Pact."

161

1956. Jon Landy (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"New divisions in Europe? The US-led initiative to invite new Eastern European democracies to join the world's preeminent defense pact has cast a chill on US-Russia ties. Left unresolved, many experts are concerned that it could create a new division in Europe and threaten bilateral cooperation in critical areas such as arms control. NATO's plan has already stalled ratification by the Russian parliament of the START II accord on cutting nuclear weapons and Russia is looking to expand ties with American rivals, China and Iran."

1957. SUN-SENTINEL, Jan. 25, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The United States would be paying much of the freight and bearing most of the leadership burden in an expanded NATO. Expanding the defense alliance would ease pressures on Western European nations to quickly admit East European countries into the European Union. There's plenty of opposition to admitting former Warsaw Pact countries into the EU. Western Europeans fear competition from the East. They also worry about a flood of immigrants that would drive down wages. NATO's expansion plans already have had an impact on nuclear arms reductions. Because of the proposed NATO expansion, the Russians have refused to ratify the START II treaty."

1958. BBC, Mar. 19, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The future processes connected with NATO expansion and the Czech republics joining it are already harming the Russian economy and this may even worsen because Russia might give up cooperation. Russian ambassador to the Czech Republic Nikolay Ryobov told Czech television tonight."

1959. Jon Mastrini (Staff), REUTERS FINANCIAL SERVICE, Mar. 17.97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97)
"Moscow's ambassador to Prague, Nikolai Ryobov. warned the Czech Republic on Sunday that key bilateral agreements with Russia might be jeopardized if it joined NATO. Ryobov told Russia's NTV commercial television that the former Warsaw Pact member's entry into the Western defense alliance could mean a damaging loss of arms markets for Moscow."

1960. Jon Landy (Staff), CHR. SCI. MON., Mar. 17, 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97 ).
"There are also concerns that NATO expansion could undermine Russia's democratic reforms by giving opponents a new issue with which to fan popular anger at the government over worsening domestic economic and social problems. ~NATO enlargement... plays into the hands of Russian hard-liners who portray it as a new threat,' says John Lepingwell, a Russian scholar at the Monterey Institute, in Monterey, Calif.; This could have a strong negative influence on US-Russian relations."' [Ellipsis in original

1961. Sherman Garnett (Staff), INT'L. HERALD TRIB., Mar. 18, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Leading Russian policymakers and analysts see the West, led by the United States, as thwarting Russian policy at every turn and trying to stave off Russia's recovery. This belief in the West's strategic malevolence fuels the most self-destructive aspects of Russia's opposition to NATO enlargement and Western engagement with the former Soviet republics."

1962. BALTIMORE SUN, Mar. I 1, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Mr. Yeltsin's popularity at home is sagging. Millions of Russians--including military officers have not been paid for months because the government simply does not have enough money. The summit will not change any of that. But unless Mr. Yeltsin comes home with some kind of satisfactory deal from Mr. Clinton about the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, popular outrage in Russia may be added to his troubles. No other issue quite unites Russians of all political stripes as much as their opposition to NATO's eastward push."

1963. Mike Shuster (Staff), NPR MORNING EDITION, Mar. 10, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"U.S. REPRESENTATIVE DAVID OBEY (D-WI): We run a grave risk that future Russian nationalists, under worse economic and political conditions than we have in Russian today, will be able to exploit any Russian government decision to accept a movement east of the military borders of NATO. And I think that could have profoundly negative consequences long-term."

1964. Joseph Fitchett (Staff, INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Jan. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Others, including many former diplomats who worked in Moscow or satellite capitals during the Cold War, contend that expansion will strengthen hawks in Russia whereas a bold policy reversal would strengthen Mr. Yeltsin's argument that Russia can afford democracy because the West is a friend."

1965. Uli Schmetzer (Correspondent), CHICAGO TRIBUNE, Dec. 22, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"'At the moment there is a great danger of the West pushing Moscow and Beijing to form another alliance hat geopolitically could revive the Cold War,' said Vsevolod Ovchinnikov, a leading commentator and author on relations with the Far East."

1966. John Hall (Staff), RICHMOND TIMES DISPATCH. Dec. 5, 96 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"The problem is that Russian acceptance is grudging. It is starting to look bitter. And it is revealing some unforeseen consequences. The price of NATO's eastward move could well be a reopening of the Cold War."

1967. Norman Kempster (Staff} et al., LA TIMES, Mar. 18.97 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97).
"Expansion of the alliance would inflict irreparable damage to European security and U.S.-Russian relations, he said. As for Washington's suggestion that expansion is a decision to be made by all 16 members of the alliance. Yeltsin said: 'NATO is an American organization where Americans issue the commands."'

1968. Norman Kempster (Staff} et al., LA TIMES, Mar. 18, 97 (Online. Nexis. 4/10/97).
"In a pre-summit interview on Russian television Monday night, Yeltsin warned that any eastward push by the alliance would damage post-Cold War trust between East and West. He accused the United States of breaking a pledge, which he said former President George Bush made to the Soviet Union in 1990, that if the reunited Germany was allowed to keep West Germany's membership in NATO, the alliance would not expand any further toward Russia's borders. 'This promise has not been fulfilled,' Yeltsin said. 'This is worrying to us."'

1969.  AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, Mar. 18, 97 (Online. Nexis, 4/10/97). 
"NATO has already announced that it intends to proceed with its enlargement plans, while Moscow remains steadfastly opposed to the alliance pushing up against its borders. Yeltsin on Monday warned his US counterpart that NATO expansion into Moscow's former sphere of influence would undermine relations and jeopardize nuclear disarmament. Yellsin said that an eastward push would be a 'serious mistake' which would upset the current balance of power and hence could affect the implementation of the START I and START 11 nuclear arms reduction treaties. the Russian news agency Interfax reported."

1970. Michael Dobbs (Wash. Post Service), INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE. Mar. 14, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"George Kennan, the dean of American Sovietologists, warned in an op-ed article in The New York Times last month that expansion could inflame 'the anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion' and constitute 'the most fateful error of American policy in the post-Cold War era."'

1971. Alexei Pushkov (Staff, NYB, INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Jan. 22, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"If such a charter is not signed, there will be negative implications for other areas of Russian-American relations, such as arms control. Under present conditions, the Russian Duma will not ratify the START-2 treaty because it would weaken Russia's ability to defend itself should a military alliance approach its borders."

1972. Alexei Pushkov (Staff, NYB, INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE, Jan. 22, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"More than anything else. NATO expansion is reviving Russia's old suspicions of America. After Russia removed all its troops from Eastern Europe and the Baltics, it does not understand why NATO troops should come to take their place in those countries. Russia strongly believes that it has the right to become part of modem Europe. An enlarged NATO with no arrangement to give Russia an equal say on security issues is perceived as a negation of such a right, as a new attempt to refuse it a real voice in European matters."

162

1973. Joseph Fitchett (Staff), INT'L. HERALD TRIBUNE. Jan. 20, 97 (Online, Nexis, 4/10/97).
"How, he asked, can NATO solve ethnic conflicts in Eastern Europe when it has been unable to find a solution to Cyprus even though both Greece and Turkey are alliance members? Critics contend that bringing Central European armies up to NATO standards could divert funds from economic development and even create more dangerous volatility. Cost estimates, which range from $40 billion to $100 billion, have not been publicly debated. Brent Scowcroft, a former national security adviser, said enlargement lost its initial sense of urgency over the last two years as stability prevailed in Central Europe and the Russian military machine showed its impotence in Chechnya.'

1974. Marc Rogers (Staff), JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY, Feb. 26. 97 (Online, Nexis. 4/10/97).
"However, NATO officials recognize that because the issues of enlargement and Bosnia have drained so many resources there has been little attempt to deal thoroughly with some major elements of the process. including such essential issues as a new strategy or doctrine. the role of nuclear weapons in the new European environment: NATO missions for the future: and a true definition of the role and division of labor between NATO and the other institutions with a security role in Europe, ranging from the EU and WEU and including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Some strategists argue that while NATO may remain a military organization able to provide a range of conventional or defense options, it has never been and may never be able to deal effectively with emerging crises and avoid escalation into conflicts."

1975. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al.. INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 50.
"Ironically, the Clinton administration grand strategy has already evolved to a point where it has many of the trappings of primacy. Indeed. Clinton's foreign and defense policy team has discovered that considerable U.S. leadership and major commitments of U.S. power are necessary for the pursuit of the transformed world they seek."

1976. Andrew Ross. (Prof. Nat'l. Security Affairs. U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY. Winter, 96/97, 44.
"The Clinton administration came to office strongly inclined to pursue a cooperative security policy. Several of its senior national security officials were identified with the development of cooperative security ideas before the 1992 election. 'The international and domestic constraints that the administration has encountered in its efforts to execute the strategy have forced both real and rhetorical compromises."

1977. Andrew Ross. (Prof, Nat'l. Security Affairs. U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 44.
"A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement (February 1996), the most complete statement of the administration's grand strategy vision. prominently contains within it the language of cooperative security and selective engagement, plus a dash of primacy. The document reveals a curiously dialectical quality, alternating between cooperative security rhetoric and selective engagement rhetoric. The administration has adopted an avowedly internationalist posture founded on a broad conception of national interests." [Emphasis in original]

1978. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al.. INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 24.
"Cooperative security does not view the great powers as a generic security problem. Because most are democracies, or on the road to democracy, and democracies have historically tended not to fall into war with one another, little great power security competition is expected. A transitional Russia and an oligarchical China remain troublesome. but the answer there is to help them toward democracy as in the Clinton administration formulation, 'Engagement and Enlargement.' The motives for great powers to collaborate are presumed to be greater than in the past. and the barriers to cooperation are presumed to be lower."

1979. Andrew Ross, (Prof.. Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 48.
"Because international and regional security institutions are weak. more U.S. leadership is required to make things happen than cooperative security advocates had hoped. Resources are necessary to supply this leadership, and resources for international affairs have become more scarce than they were during the Cold War. In particular, foreign aid and the State Department budget have been cut in half since 1984, largely at the instigation of the Congress. and are destined to fall another 20 per cent by 2002 ."

1980. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 42-3.
"Second, contrary to the expectations of primary advocates, it is likely that some states will balance against the United States. They will not wish to remain in a permanent position of military inferiority, just as the United States would struggle to reverse the position if it were imposed even by a benevolent state. Primacy underestimates the power of nationalism. Some states, simply out of national pride, may not accept U .S. leadership. States coalesce against hegemons rather than rally around them. Primacy is therefore a virtual invitation to struggle."

1981. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 41-2.
"Because world order and stability are to be maintained, however, the United States is to look favorably on the use of force to resist aggression. Despite the lip service given to restraint, this self-appointed mission could involve a lot of fighting."

1982. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 50-1.
"Primacy could die the death of a thousand cuts. The overall U.S. share of global power will decline a little. Scientific, technological, and productive capacities will spread across the world. Niche players will develop in economics, warfare, and even ideology. Close allies will grow tired of incessant U.S. demands. Traditional adversaries will balk as the United States tries to set the criteria for responsible membership in the 'international community.' A series of not very costly but ultimately indecisive interventions could exhaust the patience of the U.S. public. Selective engagement again could be the default strategy, but retreat to isolationism is also possible."

1983. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 14.
"Most of the foreign policy issues now facing the United States would disappear under the new isolationism. The future of NATO, for instance, would be left to Europe. Neo-isolationists would have the United States abandon that anachronistic alliance, not lead the way in its ill-conceived expansion. Bosnia, too, is a European problem in which the United States has no concrete, material stake. The United States would no longer be preoccupied with Russian political and economic reform, or the lack thereof. Arabs and Israelis would have to sort out their affairs (or not) without U.S. meddling. lslamists would be deprived of the Great Satan. The North Korean threat would be left to South Korea. the country whose interests are actually threatened. In Latin America and Africa, the United States would no longer rescue Haiti's and Somalias.'

1984. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs. U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 16.
"The United States can. more easily than most, go it alone. Yet we do not find the arguments of the neo-isolationists compelling. Their strategy serves U.S. interests only if they are narrowly construed. First, though the neo-isolationists have a strong case in their argument that the United States more secure, and would probably make it less secure. The disappearance of the United States from the world stage would likely precipitate a good deal of competition abroad for security. Without a U.S. presence, aspiring regional hegemons would see more opportunities."

1985. Andrew Ross, (Prof.. Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 13-14.
"Neo-isolationism advises the United States to preserve its freedom of action and strategic independence. Because neo-isolationism proposes that the United States stay out of political conflicts and wars abroad, it has no particular need for political instruments. Even traditional alliance relationships that obligate the United States in advance, such as NATO, ought to be dismantled. International organizations are a place to talk, perhaps to coordinate international efforts to improve the overall global quality of life, but not to make or keep peace. This would implicate the United States and draw it into conflicts."

1986. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 16.
"Neo-isolationists seem ,willing to trade away considerable international influence for a relatively modest improvement in domestic welfare. Given the potential stakes in international politics, the trade-off is imprudent. Engagement in international politics imposes obvious burdens and risks. Shedding an active role in international politics, however, increases the risks of unintended consequences and reduces U.S. influence over the management of those consequences, and over issues that we can hardly anticipate."

163

1987. Zalmay Khalizad (Rand Corp.), WASH. QRTLY., Spr., 95, 84.
"' Realistically and over the longer term, however, a neo-isolationist approach might well increase the danger of major conflict, require a greater U.S. defense effort, threaten world peace, and eventually undermine U.S. prosperity."'

1988. Zalmay Khalizad (Rand Corp.), WASH. QRTLY., Spr., 95, 84.
"In the Persian Gulf, U.S. withdrawal is likely to lead to an intensified struggle for regional domination. Iran and Iraq have, in the past, both sought regional hegemony. Without U.S. protection, the weak oil-rich states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) would be unlikely to retain their independence. To preclude this development, the Saudis might seek to acquire, perhaps by purchase, their own nuclear weapons. If either lraq or Iran controlled the region that dominates the world supply of oil, it could gain a significant capability to damage the U.S. and world economies."

1989.  Zalmay Khalizad (Rand Corp.), WASH. QRTLY., Spr., 95, 84. 
"'The higher level of turmoil in the world would also increase the likelihood of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and means for their delivery. Already several rogue states such as North Korea and lran are seeking nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. That danger would only increase if the United States withdrew from the world. The result would be a much more dangerous world in which many states possessed WMD capabilities; the likelihood of their actual use would increase accordingly. If this happened. the security of every nation in the world, including the United States, would be harmed."'

1990. Zalmay Khalizad (Rand Corp.), WASH. QRTLY.. Spr.. 95.84.
"'In the 1920s and 1930s, U.S. isolationism had disastrous consequences for world peace. At that time, the United States was but one of several major powers. Now that the United States is the world's preponderant power, the shock of a U.S. withdrawal could be even greater."'

1991.  Zalmay Khalizad (Rand Corp.), WASH. QRTLY.. Spr., 95, 84. 
"'As a nation, the United States is in a position of unprecedented military and political power and enjoys a unique leadership role in the world. Maintaining this position and precluding the rise of another global rival for the indefinite future is the best long-term objective for the United States. It is an opportunity the United States may never see again."'

1992. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs. U.S. Naval War Col.)et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 40.
"Proponents of primacy view regional conflict, ethnic conflict. and humanitarian intervention in much the same light as do the advocates of selective engagement. Regional conflict matters most when it impinges on major power relations and the rise of potential peer competitors and regional hegemons. Outside of the Persian Gulf most conflicts in what was once referred to as the Third World will be of little concern. Much the same can be said for ethnic conflict, however reprehensible it may be, and the need for U.S. humanitarian intervention. There is no obvious security rationale. under primacy, for humanitarian military operations, though some operations (such as Bosnia) may offer opportunities to demonstrate and assert U.S. power and leadership."

1993. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter. 96/97, 30-1.
"Nevertheless, there will still be defectors and free riders. Major power aggression would still be a problem for cooperative security, as it was for collective security, if some powers perceive the intrinsic stakes as small and the aggressor as far away and difficult to fight. It seems unlikely. for example, that the NATO allies would ever fight the People's Republic of China over Taiwan, even if the United States wanted to do so. States concerned about the possible competitions of the future will still ask if any given opportunity for current cooperation to achieve a common good. or oppose a common bad, changes their power position relative to all other potential challengers, including one another."

1994. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.)et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 31.
"Second. the task of building sufficient general multilateral credibility to deter a series of new and different potential aggressors seems very difficult. Regular U.S. action to oppose the Soviet Union during the Cold War did not entirely dissuade that regime from new challenges."

1995. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 31.
"Third, democracies are problematical partners in a cooperative security project in a crucial respect: their publics must be persuaded to go to war. Since the publics in modern liberal democracies seem to be quite casualty-sensitive, the case for risking the lives of their troops in distant wars is inherently difficult to make. This is one reason why the decisive military superiority of a technologically dominant coalition of peace-loving states is a necessary condition for cooperative security to work. This in turn depends on the military power of the United States." [Emphasis in original]

1996. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et at., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 47.
"While all of these conflicts cannot be attributed to cooperative security projects, they nevertheless illustrate the broader problem: democracies can be 'uncooperative.' First, the Clinton administration itself pursued a strangely 'non-cooperative' economic policy with the Japanese For most of 1993-96. This caused many in Asia to wonder if the United States was abandoning its commitment to a multilateral trading system. Second, the United States vehemently disagreed with the policy pursued in Bosnia by Britain and France."

1997. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 41.
"The level of defense spending required to support a grand strategy of primacy would likely be greater in the future than it would be now, as a consequence of both modernization and expansion."

1998. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97. 41.
"Two advocates of primacy recently called for increasing defense spending by as much as $80 billion above current levels, to roughly the level required to support the 'Base Force.' They propose that the adequacy of U.S. military forces be measured against a 'two- (or three-, or four-) power standard,' analogous to Britain's two-power standard of old, in which the Royal Navy was meant to be superior to the two next strongest navies in the world combined. This would serve to perpetuate the current disparity in military capabilities between the United States and other powers. Presumably. the disparity to be maintained is qualitative rather than quantitative."

1999. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97.34.
"It is important to note that though primacy focuses on the maintenance of overwhelming U.S. power and influence, it remains strongly committed to liberal principles. It is simply more judicious about the commitment of U.S. military power to particular liberal projects than is the cooperative security strategy. Support for political and economic transformation are seen as the best way to ensure that Russia will not revert to the authoritarian, expansionist habits of old, though the United States should hedge against the failure of such reform. In Europe, the United States would work against any erosion of NATO's preeminent role in European security and the development of any security arrangements that would undermine the role of NATO. and therefore the role of the United States. in European security affairs. The countries of East and Central Europe would be integrated into the political, economic, and even security institutions of Western Europe."

2000. Andrew Ross, (Prof., Nat'l. Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War Col.) et al., INT'L SECURITY, Winter, 96/97, 43.
"Fifth, the pursuit of primacy poses the constant risk of imperial overstretch. Primacy is inherently open-ended. A little bit more power will always seem better. Selective engagement is vulnerable to this temptation: primacy is even more so. Attempting to sustain an image of such overwhelming power that others will not even think of making the effort to match U.S. capabilities, or challenge U.S. leadership, seems a good recipe for draining the national treasury. Primacy may be affordable today, but it is less likely to be had on the cheap in the Future. Ultimately, primacy is probably unsustainable and self-defeating. Primacy is little more than a rationale for the continued pursuit of Cold War policy and strategy in the absence of an enemy."

